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El Cambio Climático y sus efectos en la Economía de la Región de América Latina y el Caribe
Abstract
La presente investigación analiza el impacto del cambio climático en el PIB de la región de América Latina y el Caribe. El análisis se hace a través de un modelo estadístico de regresión multivariable considerando las variables climatológicas de temperatura, precipitación y superficie forestal. Asimismo, a fin de evaluar el comportamiento del modelo respecto al crecimiento poblacional, se incluye el indicador de población total del Banco Mundial. Para realizar el modelo de regresión se utilizaron los datos históricos comprendidos entre los años 2000 y 2020. Los resultados obtenidos permiten concluir que existe una alta correlación entre las variables climatológicas escogidas y el crecimiento económico de la región.
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América Latina y el Caribe deben enfrentar el desafío del cambio climático al mismo tiempo que avanzan otros objetivos de desarrollo sostenible. ¿Cuánto costará hacer frente? Este trabajo revisa la evidencia sobre los recursos necesarios y las fuentes de financiamiento disponibles para cumplir con los objetivos del Acuerdo de Paris en la región.
Su tesis principal es que la acción climática no consiste única o principalmente en un gasto adicional, sino que requiere de una reorientación masiva de los flujos financieros existentes. No pueden alcanzarse los objetivos climáticos sin atender otros objetivos de desarrollo sostenible intrínsicamente relacionados al clima, como los relacionados a la energía, el transporte, el agua, la agricultura, y la conservación de ecosistemas, entre otros. Además, la acción climática está estrechamente ligada al gasto social, ya que desempeños sociales como la pobreza, la desigualdad y la falta de acceso a servicios de salud básicos exacerban la vulnerabilidad al cambio climático. Finalmente, la transición a una economía descarbonizada y resiliente debe ser justa, es decir debe maximizar beneficios socioeconómicos, minimizar o compensar costos de transición, e involucrar a todas las partes afectadas en los procesos de decisión. La acción climática esta entonces ligada a la competitividad, el nivel de educación, los mercados laborales, y las instituciones sociales.
Encontramos que atender la crisis climática requiere un gasto en la provisión de servicios de infraestructura de entre 2% y 8% del PBI, y un gasto para atender diversos desafíos sociales entre 5% y 11 % del PBI. Ello implica alinear en total entre 7% y 19% del PBI anual que representará entre US$470 mil millones y 1,300 mil millones de gasto en infraestructura y de gasto social en 2030 con objetivos de desarrollo sostenible, resiliente y descarbonizado. La mayoría del esfuerzo consiste en redirigir flujos existentes. El beneficio de esta reorientación tendrá un valor muy superior a su monto, al permitir evitar los peores impactos del cambio climático y generar beneficios económicos, sociales, fiscales, y ambientales.
Fuentes específicas, como impuestos verdes y bonos sostenibles, permiten financiar parte del esfuerzo. Para redirigir el gasto público, privado, y la inversión extranjera hacia soluciones consistentes con los objetivos climáticos, los gobiernos también necesitaran reformar las políticas y regulatorias en todos los sectores. Estrategias climáticas comprensivas pueden ayudar a identificar las transformaciones en todos los sectores necesarias para avanzar hacia una economía resiliente y carbono-neutral en la región en 2050. Los bancos de desarrollo pueden financiar directamente una parte pequeña del gasto necesario y apoyar el diseño y la implementación de reformas que permitan redirigir los flujos financieros existentes.
The Working Group I (WGI) contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) assess the physical science basis of climate change. As part of that contribution, this Technical Summary (TS) is designed to bridge between the comprehensive assessment of the WGI Chapters and its Summary for Policymakers (SPM). It is primarily built from the Executive Summaries of the individual chapters and atlas and provides a synthesis of key findings based on multiple lines of evidence (e.g., analyses of observations, models, paleoclimate information and understanding of physical, chemical and biological processes and components of the climate system). All the findings and figures here are supported by and traceable to the underlying chapters, with relevant chapter sections indicated in curly brackets.
Para cerrar su brecha de infraestructura, América Latina y el Caribe necesita algo más que invertir en nuevas estructuras. Debe ser más eficiente en las inversiones en infraestructura y en la regulación de una nueva gama de servicios que tienen el potencial para transformar los sectores de energía, transporte y agua. La revolución tecnológica vuelve posible, pero no garantiza, un futuro con servicios de calidad. Este libro ofrece opciones de políticas destinadas a que los países mejoren el acceso, la calidad y la asequibilidad de los servicios hoy, a fin de asegurar que sean sostenibles mañana y aprovechar para el beneficio común los avances tecnológicos emergentes. Este volumen tiene como objetivo provocar debates y promover la investigación en estos importantes asuntos, y marcar un camino que ayude a la región a pasar de las estructuras a los servicios y mejorar la infraestructura para todos.
Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are a standard tool for policy analysis and forecasts of economic growth. Unfortunately, due to computational constraints, many CGE models are dimensionally small, aggregating countries into an often limited set of regions or using assumptions such as static price-level expectations, where next period's price is conditional only on current or past prices. This is a concern for climate change modeling, since the effects of global warming by country, in a fully disaggregated and global trade model, are needed, and the known future effects of global warming should be included in forward-looking forecasts for prices and profitability. This work extends a large dimensional intertemporal CGE trade model to account for the various effects of global warming (e.g., loss in agricultural productivity, sea level rise, and health effects) on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and levels for 139 countries, by decade and over the long term, where producers look forward and adjust price expectations and capital stocks to account for future climate effects. The potential economic gains from complying with the Paris Accord are also estimated, showing that even with a limited set of possible damages from global warming, these gains are substantial. For example, with the comparative case of Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (4°C), the global gains from complying with the 2°C target (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) are approximately US$17,489 billion per year in the long run (year 2100). The relative damages from not complying to Sub-Sahara Africa, India, and Southeast Asia, across all temperature ranges, are especially severe.
1. Human activities continue to significantly affect Earth’s climate by altering factors that change its radiative balance. These factors, known as radiative forcings, include changes in greenhouse gases, small airborne particles (aerosols), and the reflectivity of the Earth’s surface. In the industrial era, human activities have been, and are increasingly, the dominant cause of climate warming. The increase in radiative forcing due to these activities has far exceeded the relatively small net increase due to natural factors, which include changes in energy from the sun and the cooling effect of volcanic eruptions. (Very high confidence) 2. Aerosols caused by human activity play a profound and complex role in the climate system through radiative effects in the atmosphere and on snow and ice surfaces and through effects on cloud formation and properties. The combined forcing of aerosol–radiation and aerosol– cloud interactions is negative (cooling) over the industrial era (high confidence), offsetting a substantial part of greenhouse gas forcing, which is currently the predominant human contribution. The magnitude of this offset, globally averaged, has declined in recent decades, despite increasing trends in aerosol emissions or abundances in some regions (medium to high confidence) 3. The interconnected Earth–atmosphere–ocean system includes a number of positive and negative feedback processes that can either strengthen (positive feedback) or weaken (negative feedback) the system’s responses to human and natural influences. These feedbacks operate on a range of timescales from very short (essentially instantaneous) to very long (centuries). Global warming by net radiative forcing over the industrial era includes a substantial amplification from these feedbacks (approximately a factor of three) (high confidence). While there are large uncertainties associated with some of these feedbacks, the net feedback effect over the industrial era has been positive (amplifying warming) and will continue to be positive in coming decades (Very high confidence).
This paper synthesizes what is known about the physical and biophysical impacts of climate change and their consequences for societies and development under different levels of global warming in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Projections show increasing mean temperatures by up to 4.5 C compared to pre-industrial by the end of this century across LAC. Associated physical impacts include altered precipitation regimes, a strong increase in heat extremes, higher risks of droughts and increasing aridity. Moreover, the mean intensity of tropical cyclones, as well as the frequency of the most intense storms, is projected to increase while sea levels are expected to rise by *0.2–1.1 mm depending on warming level and region. Tropical glacier volume is found to decrease substantially, with almost complete deglaciation under high warming levels. The much larger glaciers in the southern Andes are less sensitive to warming and shrink on slower timescales. Runoff is projected to be reduced in Central America, the southern Amazon basin and southernmost South America, while river discharge may increase in the western Amazon basin and in the Andes in the wet season. However, in many regions, there is uncertainty in the direction of these changes as a result of uncertain precipitation projections and differences in hydrological models. Climate
change will also reduce agricultural yields, livestock and fisheries, although there may be opportunities such as increasing rice yield in several LAC countries or higher fish catch potential in the southernmost South American waters. Species range shifts threaten terrestrial biodiversity, and there is a substantial risk of Amazon rainforest degradation with continuing warming. Coral reefs are at increasing risk of annual bleaching events from 2040 to 2050 onwards irrespective of the climate scenario. These physical and biophysical climate change impacts challenge human livelihoods through, e.g., decreasing income from fisheries, agriculture or tourism. Furthermore, there is evidence that human health, coastal infrastructures and energy systems are also negatively affected. This paper concludes that LAC will be severely affected by climate change, even under lower levels of warming, due to the potential for impacts to occur simultaneously and compound one another.
Growing evidence demonstrates that climatic conditions can have a profound impact on the functioning of modern human societies, but effects on economic activity appear inconsistent. Fundamental productive elements of modern economies, such as workers and crops, exhibit highly non-linear responses to local temperature even in wealthy countries. In contrast, aggregate macroeconomic productivity of entire wealthy countries is reported not to respond to temperature, while poor countries respond only linearly. Resolving this conflict between micro and macro observations is critical to understanding the role of wealth in coupled human-natural systems and to anticipating the global impact of climate change. Here we unify these seemingly contradictory results by accounting for non-linearity at the macro scale. We show that overall economic productivity is non-linear in temperature for all countries, with productivity peaking at an annual average temperature of 13 °C and declining strongly at higher temperatures. The relationship is globally generalizable, unchanged since 1960, and apparent for agricultural and non-agricultural activity in both rich and poor countries. These results provide the first evidence that economic activity in all regions is coupled to the global climate and establish a new empirical foundation for modelling economic loss in response to climate change, with important implications. If future adaptation mimics past adaptation, unmitigated warming is expected to reshape the global economy by reducing average global incomes roughly 23% by 2100 and widening global income inequality, relative to scenarios without climate change. In contrast to prior estimates, expected global losses are approximately linear in global mean temperature, with median losses many times larger than leading models indicate.
La determinación de los costos de salud atribuidos a cambios en la calidad ambiental constituye un aspecto importante a considerar en los estudios en los cuales se vincula la salud y el ambiente. Se somete a consideración la propuesta de un procedimiento para la medición del efecto económico del impacto de la contaminación sobre la salud humana en las condiciones de Cuba, en el cual se integran factores económicos, sociales y ambientales que permita la toma de decisiones y un uso eficiente de los recursos.Determining the health costs attributable to changes in the environmental quality is an important aspect to consider in studies linking health and environment. We considered the proposal of a procedure to measure the economical effect of the pollution impact on human health in the conditions of Cuba, in which the integration of economic, social and environmental factors allow taking decisions and the efficient resources usage.
Flood exposure is increasing in coastal cities owing to growing
populations and assets, the changing climate, and subsidence. Here we
provide a quantification of present and future flood losses in the 136
largest coastal cities. Using a new database of urban protection and
different assumptions on adaptation, we account for existing and future
flood defences. Average global flood losses in 2005 are estimated to be
approximately US52billion by 2050
with projected socio-economic change alone. With climate change and
subsidence, present protection will need to be upgraded to avoid
unacceptable losses of US60-63billion per
year in 2050. To maintain present flood risk, adaptation will need to
reduce flood probabilities below present values. In this case, the
magnitude of losses when floods do occur would increase, often by more
than 50%, making it critical to also prepare for larger disasters than
we experience today. The analysis identifies the cities that seem most
vulnerable to these trends, that is, where the largest increase in
losses can be expected.
This paper uses annual variation in temperature and precipitation over the past 50 years to examine the impact of climatic changes on economic activity throughout the world. We find three primary results. First, higher temperatures substantially reduce economic growth in poor countries but have little effect in rich countries. Second, higher temperatures appear to reduce growth rates in poor countries, rather than just the level of output. Third, higher temperatures have wide-ranging effects in poor nations, reducing agricultural output, industrial output, and aggregate investment, and increasing political instability. Analysis of decade or longer climate shifts also shows substantial negative effects on growth in poor countries. Should future impacts of climate change mirror these historical effects, the negative impact on poor countries may be substantial.
This paper examines the potential impact of climate change on forests and timber production in Latin America. The analysis links a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM), which projects forest migration, forest dieback, and net primary productivity spatially as a function of future climate predictions, with a dynamic optimization model of global timber markets. A global model is used because climate change has impacts throughout the world, and it is important to capture these global interactions given the role of Latin American forests in global timber production. The resulting model projects timber investments, harvesting, and forest area in critical timber producing regions of Latin America, ranging from intensively managed forest plantations in Chile, Uruguay and Brazil, to less intensively managed tropical forests. The analysis is conducted with four climate models, two climate scenarios, one DGVM, and a single economic model. Without climate change, overall forest area is projected to decline in the region as forests continue to be converted to agricultural uses, although the area of plantations increases. Timber output increases as well, although the region modestly loses some market share in global timber markets in a couple scenarios. The land use trajectory for the region is not predicted to change significantly with climate change, however, total carbon storage does increase because forest productivity increases. Timber output also increases with climate change, but market share compared to the rest of the world is further diminished because slow-growing regions like Canada gain substantially from higher growth. There is substantial heterogeneity in the projected effects of climate change on plantation species across the region. In general, timber producers in the region are susceptible to growing competition from producers in other regions who may gain more from climate change.
En los últimos años, América Latina y el Caribe muestra un crecimiento económico importante que ha derivado en una mejora de las condiciones económicas y sociales. Sin embargo, ello ha tenido también efectos colaterales negativos, tales como una mayor contaminación atmosférica en las áreas urbanas y un deterioro importante de diversos activos naturales, como los recursos no renovables, el agua y los bosques. Además, se observan economías y sociedades con una alta vulnerabilidad ante cualquier tipo de impactos adversos, tales como los efectos climáticos, y con una matriz productiva y de consumo aún proclive a presentar altos niveles de emisiones de carbono. Ese conjunto de factores llega al punto de erosionar las propias bases de sustentación del actual dinamismo económico. América Latina y el Caribe deberá transitar en los próximos años hacia un desarrollo sostenible que preserve para las generaciones futuras los activos económicos, sociales y naturales. Esa meta deberá lograrse en el marco de un crecimiento económico con mayor igualdad e inclusión social, en una senda de crecimiento con bajas emisiones de carbono. En ese sentido, el desafío del cambio climático es también el desafío del desarrollo sostenible, y su solución requiere alcanzar un acuerdo global en que se reconozcan las asimetrías y paradojas del problema.
This chapter discusses the past and present trends and future direction of rainfed agriculture. Topics covered include: the relationship between rainfed agriculture and water stress; crop yields in rainfed areas; constraints in rainfed agriculture areas; the potential of rainfed agriculture; and the new paradigm in rainfed agriculture.
New deforestation and selective logging data and climate change projections suggest that biodiversity refugia in humid tropical forests may change more extensively than previously reported. However, the relative impacts from climate change and land use vary by region. In the Amazon, a combination of climate change and land use renders up to 81% of the region susceptible to rapid vegetation change. In the Congo, logging and climate change could negatively affect the biodiversity in 35–74% of the basin. Climate-driven changes may play a smaller role in Asia-Oceania compared to that of Latin America or Africa, but land use renders 60–77% of Asia-Oceania susceptible to major biodiversity changes. By 2100, only 18–45% of the biome will remain intact. The results provide new input on the geography of projected climate change relative to ongoing land-use change to better determine where biological conservation might be most effective in this century.
There is now clear scientific evidence that emissions from economic activity, particularly the burning of fossil fuels for energy, are causing changes to the Earth´s climate. A sound understanding of the economics of climate change is needed in order to underpin an effective global response to this challenge. The Stern Review is an independent, rigourous and comprehensive analysis of the economic aspects of this crucial issue. It has been conducted by Sir Nicholas Stern, Head of the UK Government Economic Service, and a former Chief Economist of the World Bank. The Economics of Climate Change will be invaluable for all students of the economics and policy implications of climate change, and economists, scientists and policy makers involved in all aspects of climate change.
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