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An Approach to Safety Assessment for Ship Structures
The present paper targets uncertainties of wave-induced rigid-body ship responses with a focus on global wave loads. The review presents general concepts and modelling of the uncertainty in linear and non-linear low-frequency wave-induced loads. The relevance of these uncertainties for practical applications in the shipping industry as the rule development process, ship structural reliability analysis, uncertainty-based decision support systems, structural health monitoring and consequently, ship digital twins are addressed. Incentives and recommendations for future research are provided. The study is performed within the ISSC (International Ship and Offshore Structures Congress) and ITTC (International Towing Tank Conference) Joint Committee promoting a common understanding of matters related to modelling uncertainties in the description of waves and wave-induced responses of marine structures.
Collision accident remains a big threat to coastal water transportation operation. Occurrence of a collision event exposes vessel owners and operators as well as the public to risk. The nature of the threat can be worrisome; it may lead to loss of life, damage to the environment, disruption of operation, and injuries. This makes hybrid analysis of accident frequency and consequence for risk quantification of accident scenarios through stochastic tools very imperative for reliable design and exercise of technocrat stewardship of safety and safeguard of the environmental. The study involves a predictive model for collision risk and mitigation option for aversion of collision incident. Accident frequency and consequence are obtained using probability tools. Validity of the result is checked with reliability tools. Findings of the study were checked with subsystem and uncertainty risk-contributing factors in order to arrive at a sustainable decision support for collision aversion for inland water transportation. This chapter discusses the result and validation of implementation of the Safety and Environmental Risk and Reliability Model (SERM) for aversion of collision accident for vessel navigating for inland waterways.
In the present paper the effect of the nonlinear vertical wave-induced bending moments on the ship hull girder reliability is evaluated. A chemical tanker for which the nonlinearity of the vertical wave-induced bending moments was found to be significant is adopted as case study. The nonlinear effects on the vertical wave-induced bending moments of the chemical tanker are accounted for in the reliability assessment problem through model correction factors, which are estimated using direct calculation methods based on linear and nonlinear strip theory formulations and the most likely response wave method. It is verified that the design formulation presently used to define the hull girder vertical wave-induced bending moments underestimates the magnitude of the nonlinear effects. The more accurate predictions provided by the direct calculations methods show that the actual hull girder reliability in sagging is significantly smaller. Possible modified design solutions for the midship cross-section of the chemical tanker are evaluated in order to demonstrate the impact of the increase of the nonlinear vertical wave-induced bending moment in sagging in terms of structural design criteria.
A review is presented of different approaches to quantify the risk in maritime transportation. The discussion of several accident statistics provides a global assessment of the risk levels and its differentiation in ship types and main types of ship losses. Early studies in the probability of ship loss by foundering and capsizing are reviewed. The approaches used to assess the risk of structural design are addressed. Finally a brief account is given of recent development of using formal safety assessments to support decision making on legislation applicable internationally to maritime transportation.
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