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Citation: Lewis, C.T. Climate Change
and the Caribbean: Challenges and
Vulnerabilities in Building Resilience
to Tropical Cyclones. Climate 2022,10,
178. https://doi.org/10.3390/
cli10110178
Academic Editors: Alban Kuriqi and
Nir Y. Krakauer
Received: 26 September 2022
Accepted: 16 November 2022
Published: 18 November 2022
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climate
Article
Climate Change and the Caribbean: Challenges and Vulnerabilities
in Building Resilience to Tropical Cyclones
Clint T. Lewis
Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Studies, National Dong Hwa University,
Hualien 974, Taiwan; clintlewis784@gmail.com
Abstract:
Caribbean Small Island Developing States (SIDS) is one of the most vulnerable regions in the
world to the impacts of climate change. The region has prioritized adaptation to climate change and
has implemented many adaptation actions over the past 20 years. However, the region is becoming
increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of tropical cyclones (TC). This paper analyses the impacts of
TC on the region between 1980 to 2019. It aims to examine the economic loss and damage sustained
by the region, identify the sectors most impacted, and ascertain the perspectives of key stakeholders
on the factors that hinder building resilience. Statistical analysis techniques and semi-structured
interviews were to unpack and understand the dataset. The paper finds that economic loss and
damage has gradually increasing between 1980 to 2009 with a drastic increase between 2010 to 2019.
The paper highlights the agriculture, housing, transport, and utility sectors as the most impacted.
The findings also call to attention the need for increased access to adaptation financing for SIDS, the
disadvantages of the income status that hinders building resilience, and the need for increased Early
Warning Systems. The paper recommends revising the per capita national income as an eligibility
criterion for accessing concessional development finance assistance, a comprehensive EWS for the
countries in the region, and consideration of debt relief for countries affected by TC.
Keywords:
Caribbean; climate change adaptation; small island developing states; tropical cyclone;
vulnerability; resilience
1. Introduction
Climate change is a daunting challenge to Small Island Developing States (SIDS). SIDS
are categorized as the most vulnerable countries in the world to the impacts of climate
change [
1
]. These distinct group of developing countries are already experiencing climate-
related impacts such as sea-level rise, more intense tropical and extra-tropical cyclones,
increasing air and sea surface temperatures, and changing rainfall patterns [
1
]. These
impacts place additional strain on people’s livelihoods, and threaten the cultural survival
and wellbeing of island communities [
2
]. According to [
3
], with the constant warming
of the planet, should the 1.5
◦
C threshold be exceeded, SIDS will suffer significant social
displacement and economic and environmental losses.
Vulnerability is defined as the propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected [
4
].
SIDS special characteristics which include their physical size, proneness to natural disasters,
the extreme openness of their economies and low adaptive capacity have classified them as
highly vulnerable to multiple stressors, both climate and non-climate [
1
,
5
]. For example,
rapid-onset events such as TC which are classified as tropical depression, tropical storm, and
hurricanes cause an estimated $835 million-worth of damage annually in the Caribbean [
6
].
In 2019, hurricane Dorian, another example of recurrent extreme climate events devastated
the Bahamas. Two years prior, it was hurricanes Irma and Maria wreaking havoc in the
region. The national governments and other key stakeholders in Caribbean SIDS have
prioritized climate change adaptation to reduce its vulnerabilities to the impacts of climate
change. Caribbean SIDS have notably been actively engaged in observing and assessing
climate variables and understanding a range of other adaptation actions [7].
Climate 2022,10, 178. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10110178 https://www.mdpi.com/journal/climate
Climate 2022,10, 178 2 of 15
Climate change adaptation is a “process of adjustment to actual or expected climate
and its effects” [
4
]. Adaptation is costly [
8
] and therefore, poses a “significant financial and
resource challenge” to SIDS [
1
], which are already faced with continuous and interrelated
economic, environmental, social, and political constraints. As a result of such constraints,
SIDS seek international financing to help their endeavors in reducing their vulnerability to
climate change and strengthen their adaptive capacities and resilience [
9
]. The Caribbean
has actively been implementing various adaptation and mitigation projects and programs
at a national and regional level for the past 20 years through international aid that includes
Official Development Assistance (ODA), donor funds, bilateral funds, and multilateral
funds in response to climate change. The Caribbean Community Climate Change Center
(CCCCC) and the Organization of the Eastern Caribbean States (OECS) are two of the
main institutions that coordinate the Caribbean regional and sub-regional response to
climate change. Figure 1highlights some of the important achievements towards building
resilience to climate change through adaptation and mitigation actions.
Climate 2022, 10, x FOR PEER REVIEW 2 of 16
Caribbean SIDS have prioritized climate change adaptation to reduce its vulnerabilities to
the impacts of climate change. Caribbean SIDS have notably been actively engaged in ob-
serving and assessing climate variables and understanding a range of other adaptation
actions [7].
Climate change adaptation is a “process of adjustment to actual or expected climate
and its effects” [4]. Adaptation is costly [8] and therefore, poses a “significant financial
and resource challenge” to SIDS [1], which are already faced with continuous and inter-
related economic, environmental, social, and political constraints. As a result of such con-
straints, SIDS seek international financing to help their endeavors in reducing their vul-
nerability to climate change and strengthen their adaptive capacities and resilience [9].
The Caribbean has actively been implementing various adaptation and mitigation projects
and programs at a national and regional level for the past 20 years through international
aid that includes Official Development Assistance (ODA), donor funds, bilateral funds,
and multilateral funds in response to climate change. The Caribbean Community Climate
Change Center (CCCCC) and the Organization of the Eastern Caribbean States (OECS)
are two of the main institutions that coordinate the Caribbean regional and sub-regional
response to climate change. Figure 1 highlights some of the important achievements to-
wards building resilience to climate change through adaptation and mitigation actions.
Figure 1. Eight major climate change adaptation and mitigation on going and implemented in the
Caribbean.
Figure 1.
Eight major climate change adaptation and mitigation on going and implemented in
the Caribbean.
Resilience refers to “The capacity of social, economic, and environmental systems to
cope with a hazardous event or trend or disturbance, responding or reorganizing in ways
that maintain their essential function, identity, and structure, while also maintaining the
capacity for adaptation, learning, and transformation” [
1
]. Resilience is seen as having an
opposite relationship with vulnerability [
10
]. According to Hay [
11
], “Vulnerability and
resilience are considered to be important integrating concepts when managing the local
consequences of global changes”. As a result, adaptation actions are geared towards reduc-
ing vulnerability and increasing resilience through improving climate-related knowledge
and strengthening socio-economic systems and livelihoods [11–13].
Climate 2022,10, 178 3 of 15
Thought SIDS are not homogenous, they all have several specific characteristics that
classify them as highly vulnerable. For example, their geographical location in hazard-
prone regions, limited physical size, and a concentration of their population along coastal
zones. According to the UN [
14
], these characteristics have propelled policymakers and
scholars to highlight the need for special attention and support for SIDS in adapting to
increasingly extreme weather events. In the case of the Caribbean, its geographic location
in the Atlantic basin exposes the majority of the regional states to possible yearly hurricane
impacts [
15
]. The UNWTO [
16
], cited that approximately 70% of the Caribbean population
lives in coastal cities, towns and villages. Wilkinson, Twigg, and Few [
6
], expressed the
Caribbean region’s high level of public debts as a main vulnerability to development and
increasing resilience.
Exposure depicts the extent and duration to which a system exists inside the scope of
a hazard event and could be adversely affected [
4
,
17
]. Therefore, exposure depends on the
system’s location, geography, and climate change readiness [
18
]. Thus, for example, SIDS
location is a critical factor to their climatic exposure [
1
,
19
]. According to Nurse et al. [
1
],
SIDS’ geography exposes them to crucial climate and ocean drivers that include tropical
cyclones, rainfall, air and ocean temperature change, storm surge, and drought. Due to
low elevations, many SIDS are increasingly susceptible to coastal erosion, flooding, and
other extreme events [
20
]. Kelman [
21
] noted the importance to focus on the underlying
development challenges instead of external threats which come up through discussing
sensitivity and adaptive capacity.
Sensitivity is described as the degree to which a system is affected by climate change
and is mainly dependent on intrinsic and contextual conditions [
17
]. A significant factor
that gives rise to SIDS’ sensitivity is the higher risk of economic instability [
22
]. SIDS
limitations that contribute to their economic uncertainty are their insularity and physical
size, their capacity to exploit new trading opportunities and increase the competitiveness
of existing economic activities at a global scale [
23
]. SIDS higher risk of economic stability
is due to their dependence on a narrow range of export products, limited opportunities for
economic diversification, high transportation and communication costs, and high import
content, particularly on food and fuel [
24
]. SIDS economies lack of economic diversification
and are highly dependent on climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, fisheries, and
tourism [
1
]. One event, for example, a tropical cyclone, can have a severe impact on
the countries’ Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and livelihoods [
1
]. Another factor cited
in the literature that can increase sensitivity is a demographic shift where the majority
of the population live in the most significant urban areas [
25
]. This trend can result in
overcrowding and poor housing conditions, which leads to increase sensitivity to the
impacts of extreme weather events [25].
The IPCC [
4
] defines adaptive capacity as “the ability of systems, institutions, humans
and other organisms to adjust to potential damage, to take advantage of opportunities,
or to respond to consequences”. Betzold [
19
], concluded that the adaptive capacities
of SIDS are limited by various factors such as lack of resources, institutional barriers,
and public perception and awareness. Nunn [
2
], cited an increasing dependency on
donor knowledge and funding as a hindrance to local communities’ adaptive capacities.
Significant institutional barriers include weak enforcement [
26
], poor coordination and
communication at the national and local level [27], and lack of capacity [19].
Therefore, the abovementioned geographic and socio-economic factors cited from the
literature characterizes SIDS’ vulnerability and adaptive capacity to increase resilience.
These features highlight SIDS’ distinctiveness from other developing and developed coun-
tries and therefore require separate and context-specific vulnerability assessments [
23
,
25
].
In all international agreements, the United Nations [
28
] label SIDS as a “special” case for
environment and development.
SIDS have been proactive in response to climate change challenges. Most notably, the
donor community has reacted positively to SIDS adaptation challenges by contributing
US$55.6 billion in ODA to Caribbean and Pacific SIDS between 1995 and 2015 [
29
]. Ac-
Climate 2022,10, 178 4 of 15
cording to Robinson [
7
], Allocation of funding to SIDS are highly skewed. Caribbean SIDS
challenges related to extreme weather events are compounded by the lack of capacity and
limited financing to effectively implement management strategies. Moreover, available re-
sources continue to flow primarily to post-disaster activities instead of preemptive disaster
risk reduction and improvement of coping capacity [30].
Since the mid 1990s, the Caribbean has experienced a significant increase in hurricane
and tropical storm activities in the region. Barker [
31
], argued that an increase in Atlantic
hurricane activity and the potential threat of intense tropical hurricanes in the future, poses
a severe threat to the Caribbean region and its development. Forecast models show climate
change would be responsible for a doubling of cyclone losses from US$26 billion per year
to $53 billion by 2100 [32,33].
Climate change is arguably the most serious challenge to the development aspirations of
the Caribbean region. The Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) is a free and fully searchable
database that contains worldwide data on the occurrence and impact of over 20,000 natural
and technological disasters from 1900 to the present day. It records confirms the Caribbean
has experienced 70 named tropical cyclones across 19 countries that devastated the region
between the years 1980 to 2019. This paper analyses the impacts of tropical cyclones to the
region between 1980 and 2019. It has three aims. First, it analyses the economic loss and
damage sustained by the region. Second, it examines the most impacted sectors. Third, it
obtains the perspectives of stakeholder in the Caribbean on the factors that hinders resilience.
2. Materials and Methods
Figure 2shows the nineteen countries in the Caribbean that were selected to under-
stand the individual and collective impacts on the region and respective countries and to
highlight the challenges faced to combat against climate change. The map (Figure 2) also
indicate that the nineteen countries were chosen using the Emergency Events Database
EM-DAT database while five of those countries were selected based on availability of data
to analyze the sectoral loss and damage from the Post Disaster Needs Assessments (PDNA).
Climate 2022, 10, x FOR PEER REVIEW 5 of 16
• Thirdly, the geographical region was selected as well as choosing the 19 individual
countries.
• Fourthly, the disaster type (meteorological) and total damage and loss were selected.
By clicking the search button, the data was generated.
Figure 2. Map of Caribbean countries selected for the study.
The data was then analyzed using GraphPad prism (SD, CA, USA) software to cate-
gorize the data into graphs.
Desk-based research was conducted to collect PDNA documents for St. Lucia, St.
Vincent and the Grenadines, Jamaica, Dominica, and Grenada corresponding to the pe-
riod from 2000 to 2019. These countries and time period were chosen based on the availa-
bility of the data. The economic loss and damage data from the productive, infrastructure,
and social sectors were collected. Two sectors each were chosen from the productive, the
infrastructure, and the social sectors. These include tourism and agriculture (productive
sector), transport and utility (infrastructure sector), and housing and health (social sector).
For this paper, the term utility sector is used in reference to the telecommunication, elec-
tricity, and water sectors. The complete dataset was then divided into two periods, 2000–
2009 and 2010–2019 for comparative analysis purposes. GraphPad prism (SD, CA, USA)
was used to analyze the data while descriptive statistics generated graphs to facilitate the
explanation of the findings. The complete dataset from the EM-DAT were analyzed to
ascertain the decadal economic loss and damage in the region, and the category of tropical
storms between 1980 and 2019. The dataset from the PDNA were analyzed to understand
and compare the most affected sectors from 2000 to 2009 and 2010 to 2019. The complete
Figure 2. Map of Caribbean countries selected for the study.
Climate 2022,10, 178 5 of 15
Using a mix method approach, the main sources of data to inform this paper were
from the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) and Post Disaster Needs Assessments
(PDNA). The results were drawn from statistical analysis and content analysis.
For the quantitative approach, the required data to be analyzed was taken from the
EM-DAT database and PDNA. The Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) was launched
in 1988 by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED). The main
objective of the database is to serve the purposes of humanitarian action at national and
international levels. EM-DAT contains essential core data on the occurrence and effects
of over 22,000 mass disasters in the world from 1900 to the present day. The database is
compiled from various sources, including UN agencies, non-governmental organizations,
insurance companies, research institutes and press agencies. The steps taken to select the
navigate the database and select the data are as follows:
•Firstly, the disaster list was selected from the database search options.
•Secondly, the period from 1980 to 2019 was inputted.
•
Thirdly, the geographical region was selected as well as choosing the 19 individual countries.
•
Fourthly, the disaster type (meteorological) and total damage and loss were selected.
By clicking the search button, the data was generated.
The data was then analyzed using GraphPad prism (SD, CA, USA) software to catego-
rize the data into graphs.
Desk-based research was conducted to collect PDNA documents for St. Lucia, St. Vin-
cent and the Grenadines, Jamaica, Dominica, and Grenada corresponding to the period
from 2000 to 2019. These countries and time period were chosen based on the availabil-
ity of the data. The economic loss and damage data from the productive, infrastructure,
and social sectors were collected. Two sectors each were chosen from the productive, the
infrastructure, and the social sectors. These include tourism and agriculture (productive
sector), transport and utility (infrastructure sector), and housing and health (social sec-
tor). For this paper, the term utility sector is used in reference to the telecommunication,
electricity, and water sectors. The complete dataset was then divided into two periods,
2000–2009 and 2010–2019 for comparative analysis purposes. GraphPad prism (SD, CA,
USA) was used to analyze the data while descriptive statistics generated graphs to facilitate
the explanation of the findings. The complete dataset from the EM-DAT were analyzed to
ascertain the decadal economic loss and damage in the region, and the category of tropical
storms between 1980 and 2019. The dataset from the PDNA were analyzed to understand
and compare the most affected sectors from 2000 to 2009 and 2010 to 2019. The complete
datasets were converted to 2019 constant U.S Dollars. The mean and standard error of
mean (SEM) were calculated to show the variability within the sampled dataset.
The qualitative approached included eighteen semi-structured interviews which were
conducted at two different time periods. Seven interviews were conducted in St. Vincent
and the Grenadines (SVG) in August 2018 while eleven were conducted at the Conference
of the Parties Twenty-Four (COP24) in December 2018. The interviewees included public
and private stakeholders in St. Vincent and the Grenadines integrally involved in climate
change and development issues and climate change experts from Antigua and Barbuda, The
Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Jamaica, St. Lucia, along with representatives from Caribbean
Community (CARICOM), CCCCC, OECS, and Climate Analytics working on climate
change related issues. Content analysis was used to examine the data collected from the
interviews on the challenges and vulnerabilities faced by the region to build resilience to
TC and climate change holistically. The data ascertained from the interviews were also
used to design a matrix to illustrate the potential damage incurred by extreme weather
events on the different sectors.
The selected methods have two primary limitations. Using the EM-DAT and PDNA
as the main sources of data are subject to under and/or over-reporting which can affect
the outcome of the results. Case-study qualitative research provides an opportunity to
produce rich narrative intertwined with theory to answer critical questions [
34
]. However,
this approach has its limitations. Case study research, particularly small N studies, as in
Climate 2022,10, 178 6 of 15
the case of this study, suffers from two primary limitations: indeterminacy and selection
bias [35,36].
3. Results
3.1. Quantitative Analysis
Six-seven (67) TC were recorded from the data collected between 1980 to 2019
(Table 1). The most frequent TC occurring in the region are tropical storms account-
ing for 34% while category 5 hurricanes are the least with 4%. Figure 3shows that over
the 40 years, the total loss and damage to the region is approximately US$145 billion
(2019 constant U.S dollars). The graph (Figure 3) indicates how the economic loss and
damage were broken down into the different tropical storms and the varying categories of
hurricanes that impacted the Caribbean region between the period of 1980 to 2019. As seen
in Figure 3tropical storms and categories 1, 3, and 4 hurricanes occurred during between
1980–2009 while category 5 hurricanes were seen in the region between 2010–2019. The
economic loss and damage sustained from the tropical storms and categories 1–4 hurri-
canes were approximately US$45 billion. The tropical storms and categories 1–4 hurricanes
accounted for 96% of all TC included in the study. On the other hand, the economic loss
and damage from the category 5 hurricane amounted to approximately US$100 billion.
Although the category 5 hurricanes accounted for 4% of the total TC in the region between
1980–2019, the impact has cost the region substantially more than all the other types of TC
included in the study. The least economic loss and damage was sustained from category
2 hurricanes of approximately US$3.1 billion while the most impacts were sustained from
category 5 hurricanes costing approximately US$100 billion. Tropical storms are the most
frequently occurring TC in the region incurring approximately US$6.2 billion between 1980
to 2019. The more intense hurricanes which include categories 3–5 was less frequent with
an economic loss and damage to the region of approximately US$129 billion.
Table 1. Types and number of TC occurred in the region between 1980–2019.
Type of TC Number of TC
Tropical Storm 23
Category 1 10
Category 2 8
Category 3 11
Category 4 12
Category 5 3
Climate 2022, 10, x FOR PEER REVIEW 7 of 16
Category 4 12
Category 5 3
Figure 3. Economic loss and damage incurred by the different categories of TC selected in the Car-
ibbean between 1980–2019.
Figure 4 shows the Mean ± SEM of the economic loss and damage sustained by the
region between 1980 to 2019. The mean values are approximately US$261 million, US$490
million, US$493 million, and US$3.6 billion for the periods 1980 to 1989, 1990–1999, 2000–
2009, and 2010 to 2019 respectively. The short Error bars seen in Figure 4 shows a higher
accuracy of the plotted average of the economic loss and damage illustrated in the study.
The period between 1980 to 1989 illustrates the lowest mean of approximately US$261
million while the period between 2010 to 2019 shows the highest mean of approximately
US$3.6 billion. The highest mean corresponds with the economic loss and damage caused
by category 5 hurricanes as seen in Figure 3 for between 2010 to 2019.
Figure 4. The mean and SEM of the economic loss and damage sustained in the Caribbean by TC
from 1980–2019.
Figure 3.
Economic loss and damage incurred by the different categories of TC selected in the
Caribbean between 1980–2019.
Figure 4shows the Mean
±
SEM of the economic loss and damage sustained by
the region between 1980 to 2019. The mean values are approximately US$261 million,
Climate 2022,10, 178 7 of 15
US$490 million, US$493 million, and US$3.6 billion for the periods 1980 to 1989, 1990–1999,
2000–2009, and 2010 to 2019 respectively. The short Error bars seen in Figure 4shows
a higher accuracy of the plotted average of the economic loss and damage illustrated in
the study. The period between 1980 to 1989 illustrates the lowest mean of approximately
US$261 million while the period between 2010 to 2019 shows the highest mean of approxi-
mately US$3.6 billion. The highest mean corresponds with the economic loss and damage
caused by category 5 hurricanes as seen in Figure 3for between 2010 to 2019.
Climate 2022, 10, x FOR PEER REVIEW 7 of 16
Category 4 12
Category 5 3
Figure 3. Economic loss and damage incurred by the different categories of TC selected in the Car-
ibbean between 1980–2019.
Figure 4 shows the Mean ± SEM of the economic loss and damage sustained by the
region between 1980 to 2019. The mean values are approximately US$261 million, US$490
million, US$493 million, and US$3.6 billion for the periods 1980 to 1989, 1990–1999, 2000–
2009, and 2010 to 2019 respectively. The short Error bars seen in Figure 4 shows a higher
accuracy of the plotted average of the economic loss and damage illustrated in the study.
The period between 1980 to 1989 illustrates the lowest mean of approximately US$261
million while the period between 2010 to 2019 shows the highest mean of approximately
US$3.6 billion. The highest mean corresponds with the economic loss and damage caused
by category 5 hurricanes as seen in Figure 3 for between 2010 to 2019.
Figure 4. The mean and SEM of the economic loss and damage sustained in the Caribbean by TC
from 1980–2019.
Figure 4.
The mean and SEM of the economic loss and damage sustained in the Caribbean by TC
from 1980–2019.
Figure 5compares the economic loss and damage incurred between 2000 and 2009 and
2010 and 2019 by illustrating the sectors that are most affected by the impacts of extreme
weather events and expressed as a percentage. The sectors most affected are the agriculture,
housing, transport and utility. Between 2000 and 2009 the housing sector sustained 39.9%
economic impacts from extreme weather events, followed by the utility sector (19.1%),
and the agriculture sector (16.3%). Between 2010 and 2019 the transport sector (39.9%)
sustained the most impacts, followed by the housing sector (25.1%), and the agriculture
sector (16%). The sector least affected in both decades was the health sector with 1.21%
(2000–2009) and 1.12% (2010–2019) respectively. The figure shows that while there was a
significant reduction in the economic impacts to the housing (14.9% reduction) and utility
(5.9%) sectors, there was a substantial increase in the economic impacts to the transport
sector (22.4% increase) between 2010 and 2019 as compared with 2000 and 2009.
Climate 2022, 10, x FOR PEER REVIEW 8 of 16
Figure 5 compares the economic loss and damage incurred between 2000 and 2009
and 2010 and 2019 by illustrating the sectors that are most affected by the impacts of ex-
treme weather events and expressed as a percentage. The sectors most affected are the
agriculture, housing, transport and utility. Between 2000 and 2009 the housing sector sus-
tained 39.9% economic impacts from extreme weather events, followed by the utility sec-
tor (19.1%), and the agriculture sector (16.3%). Between 2010 and 2019 the transport sector
(39.9%) sustained the most impacts, followed by the housing sector (25.1%), and the agri-
culture sector (16%). The sector least affected in both decades was the health sector with
1.21% (2000–2009) and 1.12% (2010–2019) respectively. The figure shows that while there
was a significant reduction in the economic impacts to the housing (14.9% reduction) and
utility (5.9%) sectors, there was a substantial increase in the economic impacts to the
transport sector (22.4% increase) between 2010 and 2019 as compared with 2000 and 2009.
(a) 2000–2009 (b) 2010–2019
Figure 5. Loss and damage incurred from the selected Caribbean Countries (St. Vincent and the
Grenadines, Grenada, Jamaica, Saint Lucia, and Dominica): (a) percentage of loss and damage on
the agriculture, tourism, transport, housing, utility, and health sectors from 2000–2009; (b) percent-
age of loss and damage on the agriculture, tourism, transport, housing, utility, and health sectors
from 2010–2019.
3.2. Qualitative Analysis
Table 2 shows eleven potential damage and cascading effects caused by TC and how
they interrelate with the different sectors. Analyzing the agriculture sector, the correlation
shows that the impacts of tropical cyclones can have major implications to the country’s
food security, especially in the case of the Caribbean SIDS where agriculture is one the
main pillars of their economy. Therefore, with the instability of food security, this can
have a spill off effect on other sectors such as tourism, transport, health, and housing.
These negative spill offs will contribute to more poverty, higher importation food bill,
general decrease in health, and lack of tourist visiting the islands due to higher commodity
cost. The table considers twelve potential damages and cascading effects and their adverse
impacts on the six sectors.
Figure 6 gives a visual illustration of what were the main concerns from the inter-
views. The majority of the interviewees highlighted high public debt, adaptation cost, and
the increasing loss and damage from more intense TC as reasons why building resilience
is extremely challenging for the region. One interviewed mentioned “we are battling sev-
eral disasters on multiple fronts. We are battling high levels of debt, erosion of prefer-
ences, lack of access to concessional finance”. The interviewee further expressed that “it’s
a lot for small economies to deal with and again every time we are impacted by a hydro-
meteorological disaster it sets the development of the country back by decades”. Another
interviewee from St. Vincent and the Grenadines stated “Increasing public debts and so
Figure 5.
Loss and damage incurred from the selected Caribbean Countries (St. Vincent and the Grenadines,
Grenada, Jamaica, Saint Lucia, and Dominica): (
a
) percentage of loss and damage on the agriculture, tourism,
transport, housing, utility, and health sectors from 2000–2009; (
b
) percentage of loss and damage on the
agriculture, tourism, transport, housing, utility, and health sectors from 2010–2019.
Climate 2022,10, 178 8 of 15
3.2. Qualitative Analysis
Table 2shows eleven potential damage and cascading effects caused by TC and how
they interrelate with the different sectors. Analyzing the agriculture sector, the correlation
shows that the impacts of tropical cyclones can have major implications to the country’s
food security, especially in the case of the Caribbean SIDS where agriculture is one the main
pillars of their economy. Therefore, with the instability of food security, this can have a spill
off effect on other sectors such as tourism, transport, health, and housing. These negative
spill offs will contribute to more poverty, higher importation food bill, general decrease
in health, and lack of tourist visiting the islands due to higher commodity cost. The table
considers twelve potential damages and cascading effects and their adverse impacts on the
six sectors.
Table 2. Link between the sectors and the damages and cascading effects caused by TC.
Sectors Impacted by Tropical Cyclones
Agriculture Tourism Transport Utility Health Housing
Increase in food security issues X X X X X
Loss of livelihoods X X X X
Damage to transport facilities X X X X X X
Water shortages X X X X
Increase water & mosquito borne diseases X X X X
Electricity & Telecommunication shortages X X X X
Loss in commercial agriculture X X X X
Decrease in foreign investments and revenues X X X X X
Damage to health facilities X X X X
Increase cost of living X X X X
Potential damages and cascading effects
Increase cost to rebuild and restore
transport facilities X X
Figure 6gives a visual illustration of what were the main concerns from the interviews.
The majority of the interviewees highlighted high public debt, adaptation cost, and the
increasing loss and damage from more intense TC as reasons why building resilience is
extremely challenging for the region. One interviewed mentioned “we are battling several
disasters on multiple fronts. We are battling high levels of debt, erosion of preferences,
lack of access to concessional finance”. The interviewee further expressed that “it’s a
lot for small economies to deal with and again every time we are impacted by a hydro-
meteorological disaster it sets the development of the country back by decades”. Another
interviewee from St. Vincent and the Grenadines stated “Increasing public debts and so
much national development needed in country, the government main focus is what can be
done within the five-year election cycle”. Another interviewee lamented that “adaptation
cost to systematically build resilience is beyond the capacity of Caribbean SIDS”. An
interviewee from St. Lucia mentioned “the increased intensity of hurricanes has the ability
to erase decades of development from a single category 5 hurricane”. The interviewee
further used Dominica as an example as the loss and damage caused by the impacts of
hurricane Maria.
When asked about what measures are most important to build resilience, the major-
ity of the respondents suggested the need for increased access to adaptation financing,
increased in Early Warning Systems (EWS) and a revision of SIDS income status classi-
fication which is a major handicap to the region. One interviewee from Jamaica stated
that “increased access to adaptation financing is necessary for Caribbean SIDS to have a
chance in the face of climate change”. The interviewee further stated that “we can see the
impacts of climate change through the increased intensity of hurricanes and sea-level rise”.
Another interviewee added to the fact that “countries are getting international funding for
climate change but some projects fall apart because funds run out or because of silos in
Climate 2022,10, 178 9 of 15
the government then project funding isn’t does as much as it can”. One interviewee from
The Bahamas stated that “climate financing is indispensable” and further noted that “in
order to access those financial flows you have to have the systems in place to do all the
things you need to apply for it, to use it, to be able to report on it, and be in a position on
an on-going basis to constantly update and upgrade the amount of money that you need
base on the circumstances as they change. Another interviewee highlighted the need to
prioritize EWS by stating “the loss and damage from hurricanes are devastating and we
need to close the gap by introducing more technology including EWS to given ourselves a
chance”. The interviewee further stated that “too often we have to start from scratch when
a hurricane hits the region”.
Climate 2022, 10, x FOR PEER REVIEW 10 of 16
brough to attention that “within the region, we are focused on building climate resiliency
but the coordinating effort isn’t really there and that’s one of the hurdles we need to get
over in the region”. In terms of targeted capacity building, one interviewee stated that
“you have to first build your capacity in order to identify what you need. Without taking
that first step of building national capacity be it for adaptation or mitigation, all your ef-
forts will be in vain”. Another interviewee underscored the importance of capacity build-
ing by stating “it is essential to access financing” and without the capacity needed to ac-
cess financing “you don’t have a holistic approach pertaining to climate change”.
To have a sense of appreciation of the challenges faced by the Caribbean region, the
economic loss and damage sustained and the keywords from the word map are combined
into 4 major topics. (1) The inherent disadvantaged of Caribbean SIDS income status clas-
sification and high public debt. (2) The need for increased access to adaptation financing
for SIDS. (3) The need for increased EWS.
Figure 6. Keyword analysis map from interview.
4. Discussion
4.1. The Inherent Disadvantage of Caribbean SIDS Income Status Classification and High
Public Debts
The analysis of the interviews revealed stakeholders’ dissatisfaction of the classifica-
tion of the income status of Caribbean SIDS. The majority of the interviewees lamented
that the “false” classification of Caribbean SIDS, coupled with their high public debts hin-
ders the regions effort in reducing vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. The
World Bank has historically classified every economy as low, middle or high income. It
further specifies its classes of countries too, into low, lower-middle, upper-middle and
high-income economies. The World Bank uses Gross National Income (GNI) per capita as
the basis for this classification because it views GNI as a broad measure that is considered
to be the single best indicator of economic capacity and progress. Middle-income coun-
tries (MICs) are nations with a per capita GNI between $1006 and $12,235 [37]. By using
GNI per capita to classify income status, the majority of Caribbean SIDS falls in the cate-
gory of lower-middle income economies (per capita GNIs between $1006 and $3955) and
upper-middle income economies (per capita GNIs between $3956 and $12,235) [37]. For
Caribbean SIDS to strengthen their resilience by reducing their vulnerabilities, adaptation
Figure 6. Keyword analysis map from interview.
When asked about how Caribbean countries can better prepare to build resilience, the
majority of respondents mentioned intersectoral coherence, targeted capacity building, and
increased awareness. one of the interviewees from Antigua and Barbuda mentioned that
many sectors are devastated when there is a hurricane. The interviewee further states that
“it’s about time government ministries recognize the importance of planning together and
move away from the silo approach”. Another interviewee from Belize brough to attention
that “within the region, we are focused on building climate resiliency but the coordinating
effort isn’t really there and that’s one of the hurdles we need to get over in the region”. In
terms of targeted capacity building, one interviewee stated that “you have to first build
your capacity in order to identify what you need. Without taking that first step of building
national capacity be it for adaptation or mitigation, all your efforts will be in vain”. Another
interviewee underscored the importance of capacity building by stating “it is essential to
access financing” and without the capacity needed to access financing “you don’t have a
holistic approach pertaining to climate change”.
To have a sense of appreciation of the challenges faced by the Caribbean region, the
economic loss and damage sustained and the keywords from the word map are combined
into 4 major topics. (1) The inherent disadvantaged of Caribbean SIDS income status
classification and high public debt. (2) The need for increased access to adaptation financing
for SIDS. (3) The need for increased EWS.
Climate 2022,10, 178 10 of 15
4. Discussion
4.1. The Inherent Disadvantage of Caribbean SIDS Income Status Classification and High
Public Debts
The analysis of the interviews revealed stakeholders’ dissatisfaction of the classification
of the income status of Caribbean SIDS. The majority of the interviewees lamented that
the “false” classification of Caribbean SIDS, coupled with their high public debts hinders
the regions effort in reducing vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. The World
Bank has historically classified every economy as low, middle or high income. It further
specifies its classes of countries too, into low, lower-middle, upper-middle and high-income
economies. The World Bank uses Gross National Income (GNI) per capita as the basis
for this classification because it views GNI as a broad measure that is considered to be
the single best indicator of economic capacity and progress. Middle-income countries
(MICs) are nations with a per capita GNI between $1006 and $12,235 [
37
]. By using GNI
per capita to classify income status, the majority of Caribbean SIDS falls in the category of
lower-middle income economies (per capita GNIs between $1006 and $3955) and upper-
middle income economies (per capita GNIs between $3956 and $12,235) [
37
]. For Caribbean
SIDS to strengthen their resilience by reducing their vulnerabilities, adaptation financing is
necessary. One interviewee mentioned that adaptation programs and policies are driven by
financing. While another cited that there are countries in the region that cannot access some
funding sources because of their economic classification, while others countries accessing
loans for climate change adaptation are already being choked with high public debts. The
interviewees reflected on the results of Figures 3and 4and zoomed into the years between
2010 to 2019. Interviewees expressed the increased frequency and intensioty of tropical
cyclones between the period of 2010 to 2019 and made mention of Hurricanes Irma and
Maria as two of the most devastating in the region.
The income status classifications pose a huge challenge to gaining financial resources
for SIDS in response to climate change. Seventy percent of the interviewees acknowledged
the classification of the majority of the countries are “false” because of the countries’ small
size, vulnerabilities to external shocks, and their high dependence on climate-sensitive
sectors like agriculture and tourism. The 2017 hurricane season exposed the deficiencies of
the international aid and assistance mechanism. Hurricanes Irma and Maria, both category
five storms caused substantial destruction in the regions. The income status classifications
meant that the countries most impacted were ineligible to access aid or concessional loans
from bilateral and multilateral financing providers [
38
]. For example, Antigua and Barbuda
suffered losses and damages in excess of US$222 million [
39
], yet are limited to access
of non-concessional emergency finance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in
response to disasters [
38
]. Another major setback for Caribbean SIDS with the label of
high-and-middle-income status is that they will soon be deemed ineligible for Official
Development Assistance (ODA) [
38
]. Interviewees focused on Figure 4to highlight the dire
state of the region to the various sectors with the agriculture, transport, and housing sectors
heavily impacted. One interviewee lamented the financial limitations faced in the region,
stating the need to revive the economy after the impact of a hurricane. The interviewee
further stated that with the extensive loss in the agriculture sector and the major damages
to the transport sector it basically hinders the livelihoods of many persons and directly has
a negative impact on the tourism sector.
Another major disadvantage to Caribbean SIDS in increasing resilience to the impacts
of climate change is high public debt. The International Monetary Fund [
40
], reported
that most of the Caribbean SIDS are highly indebted. The implications of Caribbean
SIDS in such a peculiar economic position will have significant adverse effects on their
development, which compliments increasing resilience and reducing vulnerability. In this
regard, authors such as Bourne [
41
] argue for changes to the eligibility criteria for SIDS to
access concessional development finance, and adaptation finance. Bourne [
41
] suggested
that the current criteria are a disadvantage for SIDS in their access to such critical financing.
Climate 2022,10, 178 11 of 15
4.2. Need for Increased Access to Adaptation Financing for SIDS
The interviews have revealed the stakeholders’ dissatisfaction with the current levels
of international adaptation financing and their experience accessing it. Seventy-five percent
of the interviewees acknowledged that accessing international financing is a challenge for
Caribbean SIDS. Sixty percent cited their frustration with the funding mechanism systems
for which the volume of paperwork required for funding application and the administration
fees taken by implementing agencies as issues of major concern. The view-point from the
interviewees is that such issues strain the already limited human resources in SIDS and
lessen the monies available for actual adaptation. Several interviewees highlighted that it
is easier to access bilateral financing than multilateral financing.
The Caribbean has seen an increased in extreme weather events over the past decade.
Between 2017 and 2019 there has been three category five hurricanes that devastated the
region. Hurricane Irma and Maria in 2017 caused significant economic loss and damage
to Dominica and Antigua and Barbuda. Dominica reported an overall economic loss and
damage of US$1.3 billion or 224% of their GDP sustained from the impacts of hurricane
Maria [
42
]. The country sustained major economic loss and damage in the housing (38%),
tourism (19%), and agriculture (17%) as a percentage of their GDP [
42
]. Antigua and Bar-
buda reported an overall economic loss and damage of US$222 million or 9% of their GDP,
with 95% of the housing sector damaged in Barbuda [
40
]. Hurricane Dorian (2019) caused
considerable damage to the Bahamas. The island reported an estimated US$3.4 billion in
damages and other impact [43].
One interviewee cited that “the cost of adaptation is high, but the cost of inaction
is higher” and that countries are dependent on adaptation financing to reduce their vul-
nerabilities to the impacts of climate change. The statement was made in reference to
the intense extreme weather events experienced in recent years in the Caribbean. SIDS,
especially through the Alliance of Small Island States, an alliance solidifying the voices of
SIDS inside the United Nations framework, have called for “scaled-up, new, additional, and
predictable financial resources” so as to adequately adapt to climate change with the cur-
rent levels of international adaptation financing are insufficient [
44
]. The World Bank [
45
]
projected that the costs for adapting to a 2
◦
C warmer world between 2010 and 2050 could
range from US$70 billion to more than US$100 billion per annum. However, the climate
finances committed by developed to developing countries in 2014 totaled to approximately
US$25 billion [46], roughly one-quarter of what is suggested to be required annually.
Though Caribbean SIDS have expressed dissatisfaction with the bureaucracies in-
volved with accessing adaptation financing, Caribbean SIDS have been positioning them-
selves to access financing directly. Through the Green Climate Fund (GCF), countries are
putting steps in place to qualify as implementing agencies.
4.3. Need for Increased EWS
The majority of interviewees mentioned the need for increased ESW. In the Caribbean,
the North Atlantic hurricane season brings an average of 10 named storms per year, with
an average of six making it to hurricane strength, and 2.5 becoming major hurricanes
(Category 3 or higher) [47].
In the case of hurricane Maria its sustained maximum winds were 90 mph as of 5 am
Atlantic time on Monday 18th September 2017, putting it at the high end of a Category
1 hurricane. However, in approximately 15 h, winds rose to 160 mph, almost 50 mph higher
than forecast the previous night, accelerating Maria to a Category 5 and catching many
residents off guard [
47
,
48
] (NHC, 2019; NOAA, 2017). The Sendai Framework for Disaster
Risk Reduction 2015–2030 issued the global challenge to substantially increase access
to Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems (MHEWS) as well as disaster risk information
and assessments by 2030. To strengthen EWS in the region, one project in 2018 focused
on Strengthening Hydro-Meteorological and Early Warning Services in which the key
deliverables were development of regional strategy to strengthen and streamline early
warning and hydromet services and institutional strengthening and streamlining of early
Climate 2022,10, 178 12 of 15
warning and hydromet services [
49
]. Such initiatives by organizations, in this case Climate
Risk and Early Warning Systems (CREW) contribute to charting the way forward to building
resilience in the region.
Another major initiative that the Caribbean region can capitalize on is the new United
Nations target which states “In 5 years, everyone on Earth must be protected by early
warning for extreme weather, climate change.” [
50
]. The UN Secretary-General stated “We
must invest equally in adaptation and resilience. That includes the information that allows
us to anticipate storms, heatwaves, floods and droughts”. He further states that “Early
warnings and action saves lives” and It’s unacceptable that a third of the world’s people,
mainly in least developed countries and SIDS are not covered by early warning systems.
The results show the impact of TC and the substantial loss and damage to the countries’
productive, social, and infrastructure sectors. Therefore, taking into consideration the
vulnerabilities of the Caribbean SIDS, special focus should be placed on the region for EWS.
One interviewee stated what they refer to as the three “U” of climate change; unfamiliar,
unprecedented, and urgent. The interviewee further stated that TC are now following an
unfamiliar pattern, that their intensity is unprecedented, and the response is urgent. The
Prime Minister of St. Vincent and the Grenadines in his address at the 73rd United Nations
General Assembly in 2018 stated the need for small state exceptionalism to be placed at the
center of the global discourse and responses addressing climate change [
51
]. The Prime
Minister of St. Vincent and the Grenadines [
51
] further stated that “major emitters that
fail to set and honor ambitious mitigation pledges are committing a direct act of hostility
against the SIDS and we ought to resist the recklessness of those major emitters who are
acting against our interest”.
Also, as shown from the interviews, the need for a comprehensive EWS must include
lessons learned from past events, in order to continually improve responses ahead of future
weather, climate, water and environmental related hazards. They stated that such an EWS
should also include agreed response plans for government, communities and people, to
minimize anticipated impacts.
5. Conclusions
Climate change can derail the socio-economic and development strides that the
Caribbean has made over the past decade. Climate change adds “considerable stress”
to individuals, social groups, communities, sectors, countries and regions. Its progression
cannot be halted in the short-term, hence the region needs to adapt to it adverse effects.
Adaptation to climate change requires substantial monetary investment [
52
]. Caribbean
SIDS have to embrace a more profound ‘regionalism’ to reduce their vulnerability to eco-
nomic and environmental shocks [
53
]. One strategy that the Caribbean has implemented
to adapt to extreme weather events is to improve EWS for TC. This is a ‘no or low-regrets’
option for adaptation to climate change. It provides benefits under any range of climate
change scenarios and cope with high levels of uncertainties over future climate change
directions and impacts [
54
]. Investments in early warning services should be integrated
with current disaster risk reduction and other development strategies (i.e., poverty reduc-
tion and education) to improve the effectiveness of national systems for managing disaster
risk [55,56].
Although the capacities for Caribbean SIDS to manage disaster risk are improving,
they lack the strong institutions and systems needed to anticipate and cope with hazards,
whereas, vulnerability levels are high because of limited employment opportunities, in-
equality, and difficult market conditions [
57
,
58
]. The Caribbean islands face several limiting
factors that include their vulnerability and exposure of the islands to natural hazards on a
yearly basis, their high debt, and their lack of resources which makes it nearly impossible
to obtain sustainable development. To strengthen the position of the Caribbean region in
building resilience to extreme weather events, the following recommendations should be
considered: (1) Revise the per capita national income as an eligibility criterion for access to
concessional development finance assistance. As an indicator, it does not adequately reflect
Climate 2022,10, 178 13 of 15
the Caribbean SIDS deficiencies. (2) A comprehensive EWS for the countries in the region
and (3) Consideration of debt relief for countries who have suffered major loss of physical
and economic infrastructure through extreme weather events.
Funding: This research received no external funding.
Data Availability Statement: Not applicable.
Acknowledgments:
I would like to thank all the interviewees for their invaluable contribution to
the paper.
Conflicts of Interest: The author declares that there is no conflict of interest.
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