CO2 Emissions per GDP

Abstract

This work analyzes CO2 emissions per GDP (Cp$) in the period 1990-2020. The dataset includes 192 countries, 99.1% of the population of the world, 99.4% of the world GDP and 99.6% of global CO2 emissions without international transport. The GDP per capita of the countries included in this work was in 2020 16,247$/cap compared to the world average 16,206$/cap. The world average Cp$ was 0.000268 tCO2/$GDP in 2020, 38% below the 1990 level. 62 countries increased their Cp$ between 1990 and 2020, increasing Global Warming by 0.057°C. CO2 emissions of 44 countries were above the world average Cp$ in the period 1990-2020. The emissions above the world average were 9% of global CO2 emissions in this period, which increased Global Warming by 0.055°C. 10 countries above the world average of Cp$ (2020) with the highest change in the cumulative CO2 emissions between 1990 and 2020, caused 44% of Global Warming in this period, +0.281°C.

Full text

CO2 Emissions per GDP
Joseph Nowarski, M.Sc., ME – Energy Conservation Expert
Version 1.1.2, 5 November 2022
DOI:10.5281/zenodo.7294873
all versions DOI:10.5281/zenodo.7264410
Abstract
This work analyzes CO2 emissions per GDP (Cp$) in the period 1990-2020. The
dataset includes 192 countries, 99.1% of the population of the world, 99.4% of the
world GDP and 99.6% of global CO2 emissions without international transport.
The GDP per capita of the countries included in this work was in 2020 16,247$/cap
compared to the world average 16,206$/cap.
The world average Cp$ was 0.000268 tCO2/$GDP in 2020, 38% below the 1990
level.
62 countries increased their Cp$ between 1990 and 2020, increasing Global
Warming by 0.057°C.
CO2 emissions of 44 countries were above the world average Cp$ in the period
1990-2020. The emissions above the world average were 9% of global CO2
emissions in this period, which increased Global Warming by 0.055°C.
10 countries above the world average of Cp$ (2020) with the highest change in
the cumulative CO2 emissions between 1990 and 2020, caused 44% of Global
Warming in this period, +0.281°C.
Keywords: Climate Change, Global Warming, CO2 emissions, CO2 per GDP

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Glossary
ΔCO2 CO2 emissions of the country above the world emissions per
capita in the period 1991-2020, tCO2
ΔCO2/y change in CO2 emissions per year, tCO2/y
Ave average
CCO2 cumulative CO2 emissions according to publication [1] [2], CO2
emissions produced from fossil fuels and cement production only –
land use change is not included, tCO2
CO2 emissions of Carbon Dioxide, CO2
CO2GW correlation between cumulative CO2 emissions and Global
Warming = 0.000745°C/GtCO2 [4]
Cp$ CO2 emissions per GDP, tCO2/y,$ (ton CO2 per year, per $2017)
GDP Gross Domestic Product, constant international $ (2017), $GDP/y
Global Warming global surface temperature change over land+ocean above
1850-1900 baseline, °C
Group+10$ 10 countries above the world average of CO2 emissions per GDP
(2020) with the highest change in cumulative CO2 emissions
between 1990 and 2020
GtCO2 Giga-ton of CO2, 109 ton, 10^9 ton, 1,000,000,000 ton of CO2
M$ Million $
M$/y Million $ per year
MtCO2 Mega-ton CO2 = 106 ton, 10^6 ton, 1,000,000 ton CO2
OWID Our World in Data – Internet site [1] [2]
Ref reference
tCO2 ton CO2
tCO2/y,cap ton CO2 per year, per capita
WB World Bank

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Sources of Data
The datasets are from the following sources:
 OWID [1] [2] CO2 emissions produced from fossil fuels and cement
production only – land use change is not included
 World Bank (WB) [3] GDP, PPP (constant 2017 international $)
World and international transport cumulative CO2 emissions above 1875 baseline
are from publications [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] based on [1] [2].
World cumulative GDP above the 1989 baseline is from publications [7] [8] [9]
based on [3].
GDP Data
WB publication [3] includes GDP data for 191 countries for the year 2020 and 160
countries for the year 1990.
Part of the missing GDP data for 1990+ in the World Bank dataset [3] was
calculated using OWID [1] [2] and conversion factors between the datasets for
each year based on conversion factors between the datasets for the USA.
In cases of missing data in both sources for years 1990+, the average annual
change was applied, based on the existing data for other years. In the case of the
negative average annual change, the missing data for years 1990+ were
completed proportionally to the word changes.
Data for one country (Taiwan) are based on OWID [1] [2]. Missing data for the
years 2019-2020 were completed proportionally to the word changes.

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Dataset
Table 1 - Dataset [1] [2] [3]
CO2 GDP
emissions
Source of data OWID World Bank
Reference [1] [2] [3]
Countries 192 192
From year 1990 1990
To year
2020 2020
CO2 from fossil fuels Yes
CO2 from cement production Yes
CO2 from other sources No
Other GHG No
Land use change No
Units MtCO2/y Constant International $ 2017
Resolution 1 ktCO2/y 1 Constant International $ 2017
Table 2 - CO2 emissions dataset without international transport [1] [2]
[MtCO2/y]
1990 2020
countries 192 192
dataset countries’ CO2 emissions MtCO2/y 22,023 33,654
world CO2 emissions MtCO2/y 22,192 33,803
dataset/world MtCO2/y 99.24% 99.56%
Table 3 - GDP dataset [3] [M$GDP/y]
1990 2020
countries 192 192
dataset countries GDP M$GDP/y 50,994,261 125,514,935
world GDP M$GDP/y 51,241,011 126,318,951
dataset/world M$GDP/y 99.52% 99.36%
Formula for Average Annual Change
Formula 1 - Average annual change of parameter X in the period
1990-2020 [%/year]
rX = (X2/X1)^(1/(y2-y1)) - 1
rX average annual change of parameter X in the period from y1 to y2,
%/year
X1 value of parameter X at the beginning of the period
X2 value of parameter X at the end of the period
y1 beginning of the period = 1990
y2 end of the period = 2020

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Correlation between Cumulative CO2 Emissions and Global Warming
The correlation between cumulative CO2 emissions and Global Warming was
analyzed in the publication “Global Warming and Cumulative CO2” [4].
Formula 2 - Correlation between Cumulative CO2 Emissions and
Global Warming [4] [°C/GtCO2]
CO2GW = 0.000745°C/GtCO2
GDP per Capita
Table 4 - GDP per capita
1990 2020
dataset countries population Mcap 5,280 7,725
world population Mcap 5,328 7,795
dataset/world 99.11% 99.11%
dataset countries GDP M$GDP/y 50,994,261 125,514,935
world GDP M$GDP/y 51,241,011 126,318,951
dataset/world 99.52% 99.36%
GDP per capita (dataset) $GDP/cap
9,658 16,247
GDP per capita (world) $GDP/cap
9,618 16,206
dataset/world 1.004 1.003
Chart 1 - GDP per capita 1990-2020 [1] [2] [3] [$GDP/y,cap]
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
17,000
18,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020

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Cumulative Global CO2 Emissions
Total global CO2 emissions per year are from 1750 [1] [2]. This is also the first year of
calculations of the cumulative CO2 emissions of the world, which means that for
this parameter the baseline is 1749.
However, international transport CO2 emissions are from 1950 and the first year of
the cumulative CO2 emissions is 1950 [1] [2], which means that for this parameter
the baseline is 1949.
The dataset was converted to the 1875 baseline in the publications [5] [6].
Table 5 - Global cumulative CO2 emissions and international transport [5]
[6] [tCO2 above 1875 baseline]
1990 2020
Global cumulative CO2 emissions including
international transport tCO2 792,689,057,443 1,681,608,597,211
International transport cumulative CO2 emissions tCO2 16,042,804,984 43,700,803,946
Global cumulative CO2 emissions without
international transport tCO2 776,646,252,459 1,637,907,793,265
International transport cumulative CO2 emissions are not related to the specific
country, therefore, the comparison between the countries’ CO2 emissions and the
world is to global cumulative CO2 emissions without international transport.
CO2 Emissions per GDP 1990-2020
Table 6 - World Averages [1] [2] [3]
change
1990 2020 2020/1990 1990-2020
%/year
Population 5,327,529,078 7,794,798,725 146% 1.277%
CO2 emissions MtCO2/y 22,192 33,803 152% 1.413%
CO2 per Capita tCO2/y,cap 4.17 4.34 104% 0.134%
GDP M$/y 51,241,011 126,318,951 247% 3.053%
GDP per Capita $/y,cap 9,618 16,206 168% 1.754%
CO2 per GDP tCO2/$GDP 0.000433 0.000268 62% -1.592%
The world’s CO2 emissions are without international transport.

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The average annual changes were calculated using Formula 1.
The average change in CO2 per GDP in the period 1990-2020 is -1.592% per year
(decreasing).
Chart 2 - World CO2 emissions per GDP [1] [2] [3] [tCO2/$GDP]
0.00025
0.00027
0.00029
0.00031
0.00033
0.00035
0.00037
0.00039
0.00041
0.00043
0.00045
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Countries that Increased CO2 Emissions per GDP in the 1990-2020 Period
According to the above chart global CO2 emissions per GDP have decreased
constantly since 1990.
However, 62 countries increased their CO2 emissions per GDP in the period 1990-
2020.
Table 7 - Countries that increased CO2 emissions per GDP in the 1990-2020
period
countries World to world
countries 62 192 32%
CO2 emissions 1990 MtCO2/y 1,107 22,192 5%
GDP 1990 M$/y 5,566,798 51,241,011 11%
Cp$ 1990 tCO2/$GDP 0.000199 0.000433 46%
CO2 emissions 2020 MtCO2/y 4,028 33,803 12%
GDP 2020 M$/y 16,135,190 126,318,951 13%
Cp$ 2020 tCO2/$GDP 0.000250 0.000268 93%
Cumulative CO2 emissions 1990-2020 MtCO2 75,910 861,262 9%
Global Warming °C 0.057

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CO2 Emissions per GDP in 2020
Chart 3 - CO2 emission per GDP in 2020 [part 1/4]: 44 countries with
CO2 emission per GDP in 2020 above the world average
[tCO2 per $GDP]
0.000271
0.000272
0.000272
0.000276
0.000284
0.000286
0.000286
0.000306
0.000313
0.000318
0.000319
0.000329
0.000332
0.000342
0.000353
0.000370
0.000373
0.000382
0.000387
0.000405
0.000405
0.000413
0.000413
0.000418
0.000425
0.000434
0.000449
0.000450
0.000450
0.000464
0.000464
0.000495
0.000555
0.000592
0.000596
0.000602
0.000612
0.000649
0.000657
0.000782
0.000842
0.001024
0.001098
0.002301
0.000 0.001 0.001 0.002 0.002 0.003
Tajikistan
Azerbaijan
South Korea
Kiribati
Barbados
India
Jamaica
Canada
Australia
Malaysia
Belarus
Algeria
Zimbabwe
Serbia
Lebanon
Kyrgyzstan
Brunei
Micronesia
Nauru
Saudi Arabia
Russia
Oman
Ukraine
Lesotho
Equatorial Guinea
Qatar
Uzbekistan
Bosnia
Libya
China
Kuwait
Bahrain
Iraq
Iran
Laos
South Africa
Kazakhstan
Marshall Islands
North Korea
Palau
Turkmenistan
Trinidad Tobago
Curacao
Mongolia
The green range is the world average in 2020 = 0.000268 tCO2/$GDP

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Chart 4 - CO2 emission per GDP in 2020 [part 2/4] [tCO2 per $GDP]
0.000170
0.000171
0.000172
0.000175
0.000175
0.000176
0.000180
0.000181
0.000183
0.000183
0.000185
0.000186
0.000187
0.000188
0.000188
0.000188
0.000189
0.000190
0.000192
0.000193
0.000198
0.000199
0.000204
0.000204
0.000206
0.000207
0.000214
0.000214
0.000215
0.000216
0.000219
0.000219
0.000223
0.000226
0.000231
0.000236
0.000238
0.000238
0.000239
0.000239
0.000240
0.000241
0.000244
0.000246
0.000248
0.000251
0.000253
0.000254
0.000254
0.000261
0.00000 0.00005 0.00010 0.00015 0.00020 0.00025 0.00030
Ecuador
Mozambique
Namibia
Egypt
Solomon Islands
Argentina
Greece
Grenada
Chile
Papua New Guinea
Slovakia
Seychelles
Cyprus
Senegal
Dominica
Indonesia
Botswana
Honduras
Georgia
Samoa
Cuba
Saint Lucia
Montenegro
Japan
Vanuatu
Pakistan
Czechia
Thailand
Tonga
Bahamas
North Macedonia
Cambodia
Estonia
Bolivia
Tunisia
Bhutan
USA
Taiwan
Aruba
Suriname
United Arab Emirates
Bulgaria
Poland
Morocco
Turks Caicos Islands
Belize
Vietnam
Antigua Barbuda
Jordan
Maldives

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Chart 5 - CO2 emission per GDP in 2020 [part 3/4] [tCO2 per $GDP]
0.000118
0.000119
0.000120
0.000121
0.000121
0.000122
0.000123
0.000124
0.000126
0.000127
0.000128
0.000128
0.000129
0.000131
0.000131
0.000131
0.000133
0.000134
0.000135
0.000135
0.000137
0.000142
0.000143
0.000145
0.000146
0.000148
0.000149
0.000149
0.000150
0.000151
0.000151
0.000151
0.000153
0.000154
0.000155
0.000155
0.000156
0.000156
0.000157
0.000158
0.000158
0.000159
0.000159
0.000160
0.000161
0.000162
0.000162
0.000164
0.000164
0.000164
0.000166
0.00000 0.00005 0.00010 0.00015 0.00020 0.00025 0.00030
El Salvador
Latvia
Peru
Albania
Norway
Spain
Portugal
Nigeria
Togo
Sao Tome
Romania
Bermuda
Yemen
Colombia
Italy
Austria
Lithuania
Guatemala
Fiji
Gabon
Myanmar
Mauritania
Liberia
Nicaragua
Netherlands
Saint Vincent
Belgium
Tuvalu
Finland
Dominican
Guyana
Germany
Iceland
Nepal
Mexico
Croatia
Philippines
Brazil
Israel
Armenia
New Zealand
Afghanistan
Hungary
Moldova
Slovenia
Congo
Mauritius
Cape Verde
Saint Kitts Nevis
Turkey
Benin

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Chart 6 - CO2 emission per GDP in 2020 [part 4/4] [tCO2 per $GDP]
0.000026
0.000030
0.000034
0.000037
0.000038
0.000042
0.000048
0.000049
0.000054
0.000056
0.000057
0.000067
0.000068
0.000069
0.000069
0.000071
0.000072
0.000073
0.000074
0.000074
0.000075
0.000075
0.000076
0.000077
0.000078
0.000078
0.000079
0.000080
0.000085
0.000086
0.000087
0.000088
0.000091
0.000094
0.000096
0.000097
0.000098
0.000098
0.000099
0.000099
0.000099
0.000109
0.000110
0.000110
0.000112
0.000115
0.000115
0.00000 0.00005 0.00010 0.00015 0.00020 0.00025 0.00030
Congo Democratic Rep
Somalia
Macao
Chad
Rwanda
Central African
Malawi
Uganda
Switzerland
Ethiopia
Niger
Sierr a Leone
Djibouti
Kenya
Burundi
Cameroon
Tanzania
Sweden
Ireland
Cote d'Ivoire
Hong Kong
Mali
Malta
Sri Lanka
Costa Rica
Uruguay
Guinea-Bissau
Denmark
Singapore
Paraguay
Haiti
Burkina Faso
Madagascar
Ghana
Gambia
France
Eswatini
Panama
Guinea
Bangladesh
Comoros
Zambia
Sudan
Angola
Palestinian Authority
UK
Luxembourg
Table 8 - Below and above Word Ave of Cp$ 2020
<Cp$ >Cp$
Countries 148
44
to world 77%
23%
CO2 emissions in 1990 MtCO2/y 12,847
9,177
to world 58%
41%
CO2 emissions in 2020 MtCO2/y 13,505
20,149
to world 40%
60%
ΔCO2 emissions per year 1990-2020
MtCO2/y 658
10,972
to world 6%
94%
Cumulative CO2 1990-2020 MtCO2 435,863
418,271
to world 51%
49%

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CO2 Emissions in 2020 Above the World Average Cp$
Table 9 - CO2 emissions in 2020 above the world average Cp$
to world
Countries 44 23%
CO2 emissions in 2020 MtCO2/y 20,149 60%
GDP 2020 M$/y 48,918,101 39%
Group Cp$ 2020 tCO2/$GDP 0.000412 154%
World Cp$ 2020 tCO2/$GDP 0.000268
CO2 emissions to world Cp$ M$/y 13,091
Above the world Cp$ MtCO2/y 7,059
Above the world Cp$ 35.0%
Group cumulative emissions 1990-2020 MtCO2 418,271 49%
Half of the difference to world Cp$ 17.5%
Group cumulative emissions above the world Cp$ MtCO2 73,265 9%
Global Warming by emissions above world Cp$ °C 0.055
Highest Change in CO2 Emissions Between 1990 and 2020
There are 44 countries above the world average of CO2 emissions per GDP (2020).
Among them, 10 countries were selected with the highest change in the
cumulative CO2 emissions between 1990 and 2020, “Group+10$”.
Table 10 - Group+10$, 10 countries above the world average of CO2
emissions per GDP (2020) with the highest change in cumulative
CO2 emissions between 1990 and 2020 [Mt CO2]
Country CCO2 Global Warming
1990-2020 °C
MtCO2 1990-2020
China 192,560 +0.144
Russia 48,961 +0.036
India 43,400 +0.032
Canada 16,411 +0.012
South Korea 15,216 +0.011
Iran 14,206 +0.011
Saudi Arabia 12,747 +0.010
South Africa 12,543 +0.009
Australia 11,095 +0.008
Ukraine 9,756 +0.007
Group+10$ 376,895 +0.281
to World 44%
The above 10 countries caused 44% of Global Warming between 1990 and 2020.

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Table 11 - Group+10$ CO2 emissions per GDP [tCO2/$GDP]
Country Mt CO2/y
Mt CO2/y
M$GDP M$GDP Cp$ Cp$ Cp$ Change
tCO2/$GDP
tCO2/$GDP
to world
10 1990 2020 1990 2020 1990 2020 2020 2020/1990
China 2,485
10,668
1,616,386 22,996,385 0.001537 0.000464
173%
0.30
Russia 2,526
1,577
3,178,790 3,892,676 0.000794 0.000405
151%
0.51
India 579
2,442
1,583,371 8,537,555 0.000365 0.000286
107%
0.78
Canada 458
536
912,550 1,752,155 0.000502 0.000306
114%
0.61
South Korea
250
598
542,571 2,194,532 0.000462 0.000272
102%
0.59
Iran 210
745
526,817 1,257,479 0.000399 0.000592
221%
1.49
Saudi Arabia
208
626
671,957 1,543,977 0.000310 0.000405
151%
1.31
South Africa
313
452
414,406 751,194 0.000755 0.000602
225%
0.80
Australia 279
392
529,298 1,250,714 0.000528 0.000313
117%
0.59
Ukraine 706
214
852,497 517,968 0.000828 0.000413
154%
0.50
Group+10$ 8,014
18,249
10,828,643 44,694,636 0.000740 0.000408
153%
0.55
to World 36%
54%
21% 35% 171% 153%
153%
89%

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Table 12 - Group+10$ and the World between 1990 and 2020
Group+10$ Rest of the
World World
Countries in this work 10 182 192
to world 5% 95%
Population 1990 2,445,976,987 2,881,552,091 5,327,529,078
to world 46% 54%
Population 2020 3,301,623,109 4,493,175,616 7,794,798,725
to world 42% 58%
change 1990-2020 35% 56% 46.31%
change per year 28,521,537 53,720,784 82,242,322
to world 35% 65%
average annual change 1.00% 1.49% 1.28%
GDP 1990 M$GDP/y 10,828,643 40,412,367 51,241,011
to world 21% 79%
GDP 2020 M$GDP/y 44,694,636 81,624,315 126,318,951
to world 35% 65%
change 1990-2020 313% 102% 147%
change per year M$GDP/y 1,128,866 1,373,732 2,502,598
to world 45% 55%
average annual change 4.84% 2.37% 3.05%
GDP per capita 2020 $GDP/cap 13,537 18,166 16,206
to world 84% 112%
CO2 emissions in 1990 Mt CO2/y 8,014 14,178 22,192
to world 36% 64%
CO2 emissions in 2020 Mt CO2/y 18,249 15,554 33,803
to world 54% 46%
change 1990-2020 Mt CO2/y +10,235 +1,377 +11,611
change 1990-2020 +128% +10% +52%
average annual change +2.78% +0.31% +1.41%
Cumulative CO2 emissions 1990-2020 Mt CO2 376,895 484,367 861,262
to world 44% 56%
Global Warming caused by CO2 1990-2020 °C +0.281 +0.361 +0.642
to world 44% 56%
CO2 per capita 1990 tCO2/y,cap 3.28 4.92 4.17
to world 79% 118%
CO2 per capita 2020 tCO2/y,cap 5.53 3.46 4.34
to world 127% 80%
change 1990-2020 +68.7% -29.6% +4.1%
average annual change +1.76% -1.16% +0.13%
CO2 per GDP 1990 tCO2/$GDP 0.000740 0.000351 0.000433
to world 171% 81%
CO2 per GDP 2020 tCO2/$GDP 0.000408 0.000191 0.000268
to world 153% 71%
change 1990-2020 -44.8% -45.7% -38.2%
average annual change -1.96% -2.01% -1.59%
Changes in this Version
o Minor editorial corrections

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CO2 Emissions per GDP v1.1.2 - Joseph Nowarski
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9. Dataset CO2 Emission per GDP Forecast 2020-2100 – Joseph Nowarski,
DOI:10.5281/zenodo.7264415
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