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Subsidizing low- and middle-income adoption of electric vehicles: Quasi-experimental evidence from California
Abstract
Little is known about electric vehicle (EV) demand by low- and middle-income households. In this paper, we exploit a policy that provides exogenous variation in large EV subsidies targeted at the mass market in California. Using transaction-level data, we estimate three important policy parameters: the rate of subsidy pass-through, the impact of the subsidy on EV adoption, and the elasticity of demand for EVs among low- and middle-income households. Demand for EVs in our sample is price-elastic (−2.1) and buyers capture roughly 73 to 85 percent of the subsidy.
... The S-curve's shape is linked to system feedback: economies of scale, social diffusion, and technological reinforcement. As a market innovation, the embrace of the EV progresses along an S-curve as illustrated in Figure 1, consisting of an introductory phase, a period of rapid growth, and ultimately a saturation phase [16][17][18]. ...
... The transition to EVs is represented by an S-curve [16][17][18] for both new and pre-owned EVs as a theoretical model, with the following equations: R(t) represents the overall penetration rate of electric vehicles, u(t) denotes the penetration rate of pre-owned electric vehicles, and n(t) refers to new electric vehicles. ...
... In the end, a balance will be reached in the proportion of new to used EVs available in the market. The transition to EVs is represented by an S-curve [16][17][18] for both new and preowned EVs as a theoretical model, with the following equations: R(t) represents the overall penetration rate of electric vehicles, u(t) denotes the penetration rate of pre-owned electric vehicles, and n(t) refers to new electric vehicles. ...
The adoption of a new technology is well described by an S-curve. It starts with a slow initial introduction, faster growth, and a final low-pace stage that corresponds to saturation. Once the innovation is introduced and progressively adopted, prior to saturation, some of the initial owners will begin selling their initially owned goods for different reasons, including lack of satisfaction, upgrading to a newer model, or other special unrevealed reasons. In a given market, new and second-hand products will coexist that will find new owners. The evolution of the two qualities of the same product will progress to a given equilibrium and a final ratio specific to each market. With the hypothesis of second-hand goods viewed as a new technology for lower budgets in the market, their adoption can also be described by the S-curve. The questions to be answered will relate to the dynamics of adoption of the two technologies, the ratio at equilibrium between new and used products in a market, and the delay required before equilibrium is achieved. In this manuscript, a realistic model is presented to approach and analyze the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) with the mix of new and used vehicles with new registrations. The EV transition is presented with an adoption represented by the S-curve; the ratio of new to used EVs with new registrations is also presented in a context of high demand of used EVs and a context of rapid depreciation of EVs corresponding to lower demand of pre-owned EVs. The model predicts the number of years required before an equilibrium is reached in the ratio between used and new EVs in new registrations for a given market.
... Our paper is related to the stream of the literature using quasi-experimental variation based on granular data on vehicle uptake to identify causal effects. An important existing contribution is Muehlegger and Rapson (2022), who analyze the effectiveness of a BEV purchase program in California targeting low-and middle-income buyers. Chen et al. (2021) and Li et al. (2022) add evidence on the impacts of purchase subsidies in China, while Wang et al. (2022) analyze the impact of a demonstration program promoting electric vehicles in a number of Chinese cities. ...
... Analyzing such heterogeneity can shed light on some key mechanisms behind the uptake of electric vehicles. In this paper, we explore effect heterogeneity along three dimensions, starting with income-a canonical dimension along which to delineate effect heterogeneity (Muehlegger and Rapson 2022). Second, the literature shows that energy efficiency subsidies are especially taken up by individuals with an environmentalist orientation (Allcott et al. 2015). ...
... Assuming full pass-through of purchase subsidies, 18 the elasticity implied by the coefficient estimate for Reform 2 in Table 3, Column (1) is approximately 3.16% in absolute terms, meaning that for a one percent increase in the subsidy BEV registrations increase by about 3.16%. 19 Our estimate of the elasticity is toward the upper end of the range provided in Muehlegger and Rapson (2022), who estimate, again in absolute terms, a lower bound of 0.3-0.9 and an upper bound of 2.8-3.8, with preferred estimates in the range 2.1-2.2. A higher uptake of the subsidy in our setting may be explained due to the focus of the subsidy scheme in Muehlegger and Rapson (2022) on low-and middle-income consumers, whereas 17 As all registration numbers are normalized by population and all point estimates represent registrations per 100,000 inhabitants, for shortness we henceforth omit the reference to population-normalization when interpreting coefficients 18 Barwick et al. (2023) show that for vehicle models sold in more than 11 countries full pass-through cannot be rejected. ...
We evaluate German purchase subsidies for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) using data on new vehicle registrations in Germany during 2015-2022. We account for confounding time trends and interacting EU-level standards using neighboring countries as a control group. We find that 40% of BEV and 25% of PHEV registrations were subsidy-induced. The program had strong distributional effects, with greater uptake in wealthier and greener counties. We estimate implied abatement costs of 870 euro per ton of for BEVs and 2,470 euro for PHEVs, suggesting that policy makers should re-balance support schemes away from PHEVs.
... An emerging empirical literature sheds light on the effectiveness of policies to promote electric vehicles, such as purchasing subsidies and tax credits (Yan and Eskeland, 2018;Muehlegger and Rapson, 2022;Clinton and Steinberg, 2019), charging station networks (Li et al., 2017;Springel, 2021), low-emission zones (Wolff, 2014;Morton, Lovelace and Anable, 2017; Barahona, Gallego and Montero, 2020), access to high occupancy lanes (Bento et al., 2014;Sheldon and DeShazo, 2017;Jenn, Springel and Gopal, 2018), and exemptions from road tolls and congestion pricing (Mersky et al., 2016;Isaksen and Johansen, 2021). However, data availability and identification challenges still limit our understanding. ...
... However, data availability and identification challenges still limit our understanding. Importantly, policies incentivizing electric vehicle adoption rarely offer quasi-experimental variation that allows causal identification (Muehlegger and Rapson, 2022). Existing studies largely rely on aggregate data at the country, state, or municipality level (Münzel et al., 2019), with a high risk of confounding factors. ...
... While evidence on the effect of road tolls on BEV ownership is scarce, we can compare our results to the estimated effects of other monetary incentives. Muehlegger and Rapson (2022) find that a 1000 USD one-time subsidy increases the sales of BEVs and PHEVs by 13%, which is large compared with the findings based on state-level data by Jenn, Springel and Gopal (2018) and Clinton and Steinberg (2019), and findings based on country-level data by Sierzchula et al. (2014) and Münzel et al. (2019). ...
... Studies show higher income buyers and buyers of longer range and more expensive PEVs are less dependent on incentives [53,57,94,104,105] while lower and middle income buyers are more dependent to incentives [93,94,[105][106][107][108][109]. Nonetheless, higher income households and households in higher income and non-disadvantaged areas receive a disproportionate number of PEV incentives [109,110], though a large portion of this may be attributable to new-car buying rather than specific to PEVs and rebates [56]. ...
... The impact of incentives on PEV adoption is related to demographics (including income), removal of incentives could impact buyers whose adoption is dependent on incentives including middle-and lower-income buyers. [53,93,94,[105][106][107][108][109] How will the introduction of new models (e.g. PEV trucks, and more model choice) change PEV buyers demographics? ...
Most net-zero emissions targets require electrification of the entire light-duty vehicle fleet, and before that the electrification of all new vehicle sales. In this paper, we review literature on demand-side issues related to achieving 100% zero-emissions vehicle sales, focusing on plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs). We discuss potential demand-side challenges to increasing PEV sales and related research gaps, including consumer factors (perceptions, knowledge, and consumer characterises), demand-focused policy (incentives), infrastructure, and energy prices. While global PEV sales have substantially increased in recent years, several challenges remain: some demographic groups are currently underrepresented among PEV buyers (e.g. renters, lower income buyers), some car drivers are resistant to PEVs, incentives are influential but have predominantly benefited higher-income new-car buyers and are being phased out, infrastructure is not sufficiently developed or equally distributed, infrastructure is not user friendly, and some households lack charging access. Some issues we identify may be related to the early stage of the PEV market, though will need to be addressed to reach higher PEV sales and PEV fleet shares. Finally, we outline areas where more research is needed to understand and guide the PEV transition.
... However, this trend can vary based on the state's tax treatments, tax rate structures, and thresholds. Overall, incentives have a significant impact on increasing EV sales [17,36]. Jenn et al. [36] examined both the impacts of monetary and non-monetary incentives on EV sales across all states in the U.S., compiling data on 198 different incentives. ...
... Indeed, offering tiered incentives increases their likelihood of bridging this gap. If providing a $1000 subsidy equates to a 12-15% impact on EV purchases [17], offering an amount of $1500-2000 might be a feasible way to ensure their adoption rates. This amount aligns with the actual amount given in the City of Riverside. ...
This study explores the socioeconomic disparities observed in the early adoption of Electric Vehicles (EVs) in the United States. A multiagent deep reinforcement learning-based policy simulator was developed to address the disparities. The model, tested using data from Austin, Texas, indicates that neighborhoods with higher incomes and a predominantly White demographic are leading in EV adoption. To help low-income communities keep pace, we introduced tiered subsidies and incrementally increased their amounts. In our environment, with the reward and policy design implemented, the adoption gap began to narrow when the incentive was equivalent to an increase in promotion from 20% to 30%. Our study’s framework provides a new means for testing policy scenarios to promote equitable EV adoption. We encourage future studies to extend our foundational study by adding specifications.
... The policy environment also plays a major part in whether people buy electric vehicles. Muehlegger and Rapson [40] point out that state vehicle and low-income programs help people buy EVs faster by providing direct financial support to buyers with limited resources. Hidayat and Cowie [41] designed a framework showing how governments and infrastructure support promote EV adoption in countries like Indonesia. ...
Smart mobility solutions such as Electric Vehicles (EVs) bring about a successful opportunity to cope with climate change and achieve energy efficiency. A substantial body of research about EV adoption in India and other developing economies exists, yet comprehensive studies that analyse barriers and facilitators through managerial perspectives remain scarce. Additionally, most research investigations study range anxiety, yet ‘range consciousness’ remains unexplored in the literature. Based on the Value-Belief-Norm Theory, the present study utilised a qualitative exploratory approach by conducting 55 in-depth semi-structured interviews with managers in the automobile sector using a purposive sampling technique. Further, the interview responses were analysed using Braun and Clarke (Qual Res Psychol 3:77–101, 2006) six-phase thematic analysis to identify the emerging themes and sub-themes. The analysis outlined three major themes, namely, the push of the EV adoption drivers, the need to tackle EV adoption barriers, and the role of initiatives in promoting EV adoption. The findings point towards EV drivers, their barriers and the need for synergic efforts between individuals, organisations and the government to pave the way for widespread EV adoption. The present study also develops an all-encompassing framework incorporating tri-level initiatives to promote the use of EVs in developing and emerging economies. Businesses can leverage these findings to develop targeted marketing strategies that emphasise long-term cost savings, environmental benefits, and technological advancements of EVs, whereas government authorities can design and implement policies that encourage local manufacturing, innovation, and research projects concerning EVs.
... Regarding demographic and economic factors, income levels and household characteristics significantly influence the adoption of EVs. Consumers with higher disposable incomes are more likely to adopt EVs due to the lower operational costs and long-term financial benefits they offer [66], [96] . Cost savings from reduced fuel and maintenance expenses are key incentives for EV adoption, particularly for individuals who are conscious of the financial implications of vehicle ownership. ...
... Mainly driven by its environmental benefits, government policies worldwide have widely supported the adoption of EVs by initiating tax credits and distributing subsidies. Some transportation equity discourses argue that their incentive policies provide fewer benefits to low-income households (Liu et al. 2022); however, generally, incentive programs do increase the sales of EVs (Jenn et al. 2018;Muehlegger and Rapson 2022). With ongoing promotions, the EV market is expected to grow more rapidly in the coming years. ...
Public electric vehicle charging stations (EVCSs) are vital for boosting EV adoption. This study investigates Seoul’s public EV charging patterns, taking into account the surrounding urban built environment. We collected built-environment data from land-use maps, Point of Interest (POI) data, and panorama images near public EVCS. The computer-vision technique was used to extract scene features from panorama images. We conducted a spatiotemporal analysis of public EVCS usage. The built-environment factors underwent dimensionality reduction and were assessed for outliers. Descriptive analysis revealed afternoon peak charging times and variations between chargers. Additional peaks are observed in the weekday late evening for chargers located near mega-retail stores. Public EVCS in Seoul were utilized more on weekdays than on weekends. Public EVCS in central business districts saw the most significant usage, with potential cases of overuse. An analysis of the built environment around the chargers showed unique characteristics, with some forming identifiable clusters. The most used public EVCS had more parking areas than other POIs, matching visual observations. Computer visioning mainly recognized highways, parking lots, and crosswalks as common features near the chargers. Outlier test results generally defined fast chargers in the central business district area as outliers. The results also demonstrated that built-environment measures from POI data and computer vision can be used in a complementary manner. Our study offers empirical findings to enhance the understanding of public EV charging usage. We demonstrated the use of POI data and computer-vision techniques to quantify the built environment.
... as maintenance costs compared to Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles [10]. Other commonly mentioned factors include socio-demographic characteristics [8,[11][12][13][14], government policies [7][8][9]14], Purchase Attitude (PA) [9,15,16], and charging infrastructure [5,9,16]. Other studies have highlighted the role of psychological and behavioral factors such as human-nature relationship, risk attitude, deontological awareness, and Environmental Awareness (EA) [8,10,17]. ...
As Saudi Arabia seeks to transition toward sustainable energy, the adoption of Electric Vehicles (EVs) is a key component in reducing carbon emissions and combating climate change. This study explores the factors driving EV adoption, focusing on Willingness To Pay (WTP), Environmental Awareness (EA), Perceived Risks (PR), and Product Attributes (PA). Using a structured survey distributed to 365 respondents, the obtained data were analyzed through the SPSS 27 software, employing regression analysis and factor analysis. The results reveal that WTP and EA are significant predictors of Perceived Value (PV), which, in turn, positively influences consumers’ intention to purchase EVs. Conversely, PR negatively impacts Purchase Intention (PI), though these risks are mitigated by favorable PA. The findings highlight a gap between consumer interest in EVs and the existing infrastructure, suggesting that addressing these concerns is crucial for widespread EV adoption in Saudi Arabia. These insights provide actionable recommendations for policymakers and businesses aiming to enhance consumer confidence and facilitate the growth of the EV market in the region.
... Governments subsidized EVs to jump-start their adoption [3][4][5] and reduce dependence on fossil fuels on the one hand. EVs that are produce zero emissions, are more environmentally friendly than ICE vehicles [6][7][8], and they also produce zero emissions. ...
Electric vehicles (EVs) are revolutionizing road transport. They represented the most reliable and realistic option to decarbonize road transport in the last 10 years and look to be holding a promising future. EVs are in competition with internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, but they still have a lower performance, particularly in range, and they remain more expensive. To guarantee the EV development and make it a sustainable substitution to ICE vehicles, the EV industry and technology development had been mostly supported by governments’ subsidies. One of the main issues EVs are facing is that they depreciate much faster than ICE vehicles, principally due to rapid technological progress that drives the market on the one hand and, on the other, makes older EV models prematurely obsolete. The other variable that contributes to faster EV depreciation is subsidies. It is expected that the end of subsidies will bring the necessary leverage to slow down EVs fast depreciation due to the wider price gap between new and pre-owned EVs. Batteries, which make EVs a practical reality, play a major role in EV depreciation. Besides the possible degradation of EV batteries, the technology development and price drop give newer models better range at a lower cost. The second-hand EV market is a fair reflection of the fast depreciation of EVs; naturally, the two subjects should be studied correlatively. It may not be obvious to draw an obvious correlation, but it seems clear that the fast depreciation of EVs is one of the major reasons why the second-hand EV market is still minor. Depreciation is a major driver of the second-hand EV market. In this manuscript are presented the main aspects of EV depreciation, particularly those related to fast technological evolution, including batteries and subsidies, as well as the second-hand EV market.
... This result may reflect targeted outreach and marketing efforts towards Hispanic communities or a growing interest in sustainable technologies within these communities. This finding contrasts with previous research (Muehlegger et al., 2018;Turrentine et al., 2011), which found lower EV adoption rates among minority communities. Conversely, previous studies have highlighted the importance of cultural factors and community-specific outreach in influencing EV adoption (Carley et al., 2013). ...
The transition rate to electric vehicles (EVs) has accelerated globally as indicated by a notable rise in the number of used EVs in the market. However, most existing studies focused on the attributes related to the new EVs. This study explores the factors influencing consumer purchase intentions of used EVs using structural equation modeling (SEM). Drawing on a survey of 992 used EV owners in the United States, the research examines the impact of sociodemographic characteristics, purchase details, information sources, pre-purchase concerns, current driving and charging experiences, and future purchase intentions. The findings reveal that charging ease has the strongest positive direct effect on future purchase intentions, while information sources and driving experience show negative direct effects. Sociodemographic characteristics and pre-purchase concerns indirectly influence future intentions through other factors. More specifically, income level, education, and Hispanic ethnicity positively contribute to the sociodemographic profile of EV owners. Further, traditional media plays a significant role in disseminating EV information, although online searches show a negative relationship with information source engagement. This comprehensive approach provides a nuanced understanding of the dynamics within the used EV market, ultimately supporting sustainable transportation initiatives. The study highlights the importance of addressing charging infrastructure, battery performance, and affordability concerns to enhance the used EV market's growth.
... Given the rapid increase in the adoption of clean vehicles, numerous research efforts investigate the spread of alternative fuel technology [7][8][9][10]. These studies hold great significance for two main reasons: (1) a comprehension of the spatial diffusion of ZEV technologies can facilitate infrastructure and urban planning [11]; and (2) analyzing the distribution of ZEVs can help in developing more focused strategies to encourage the spread of EVs [5,12,13], ultimately contributing to positive environmental impacts. ...
... The economics literature has looked at the effect of government incentives on hybrid and plug-in vehicles (Wee et al., 2018;Münzel et al., 2019;Clinton and Steinberg, 2019;Springel, 2021;Muehlegger and Rapson, 2022). However, these studies have been performed primarily in the United States context and either focus on incentives targeted at hybrid cars and plug-in vehicles without considering the more recent policies exclusively targeted at BEVs, or they do not distinguish between discounts on vehicle registration taxes and purchase rebates. 1 ...
Electrification of the private passenger transport sector is a fundamental milestone in reducing global carbon emissions. To reach this goal, several governments introduced a series of incentive programs to encourage the adoption of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs). Two of the most widespread policies to incentivize the adoption of BEVs are discounts on the annual vehicle circulation tax and purchase rebates. This paper analyzes the causal relationship between introducing these two policies and adopting battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) in Switzerland. We also examine the effect of the diffusion of rooftop solar PV on the adoption of BEVs. We find that purchase rebates for BEVs positively affect their adoption, while the discount on the circulation tax has no effect. The cost-effectiveness of rebates is low because of a free-riding problem, i.e. all buyers of a BEV are entitled to the incentives, including those who would have bought a car even in their absence. The diffusion of solar PV facilitates the adoption of BEVs.
... Knittel (2011) finds that U.S. automakers could have substantially improved fuel economy if they did not allocate as much resources to improve other vehicle attributes such as engine power from 1980 to 2006 amid a lack of government incentives. Muehlegger and Rapson (2022) find that price elasticity for EVs is high especially for middle-to low-income households and these households capture most of the subsidies. Yet, fewer papers have brought together subsidies in transformative innovation with finance's role in agent actions (see, for example, Howell (2017)). ...
Financing cost differentials tilt the calculus for households toward electric vehicles (EVs). Using 85 million observations on U.S. auto loans, we study households’ credit risk by engine type, seek to uncover the sources and ask if credit risk differentials are being priced. We find that EV borrowers default 29% less relative to internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) borrowers with a back-of-the-envelope value of 2,711 in foregone payments. This lower rate is only for captive (manufacturer-based) lenders, not for bank and nonbank lenders, suggestive of policy and strategic motives by manufacturers, not a passing along of credit risk value. Another 233 in savings for the ABS issuer.
... Given that low-income households are the most likely to profit from an EV but are also the least likely to adopt one, there is a strong case for focusing purchasing incentives on them [247]. Previous research has found that low-income EV purchasers are more receptive to incentives and that purchasing incentives have become increasingly relevant over time [248,249]. As EVs become more common and governments explore changing incentives, it may be more beneficial to introduce and progressively increase qualifying limits based on income [248]. ...
... Similar freerider effects are reported by Borenstein and Davis (2016) and Huse and Lucinda (2014). Complementing this line of evidence, Muehlegger and Rapson (2018) show that purchase subsidies for low-and middle-income households have a very limited effect on BEV adoption. This renders tax rebates and other financial instruments relatively inefficient (Yan, 2018). ...
Large-scale deployment of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) is strategically important for the transition toward a low-carbon economy. Denmark has traditionally stimulated BEV diffusion through a registration tax exemption that was lifted in 2016 and partially reintroduced in 2018. Exploiting car registration and detailed population data covering the period 2013–2019 and using Bayesian additive regression trees, this paper provides new evidence on (i) the effects of the changes in the registration tax on the adoption of BEVs in Denmark, (ii) the socioeconomic factors that influence BEV adoption, and (iii) the presence of freerider effects. The results suggest that the number of BEVs would have been higher had the tax exemption remained. Moreover, we detect heterogenous treatment effects that are larger the more likely a socioeconomic group is to purchase a BEV. Consequently, we expect that there are substantial freerider effects in the promotion of BEVs via the tax system.
... Finally, there is an emerging literature on the demand for electric and "green" cars. 4 Muehlegger and Rapson (2022) study the effect of a subsidy of electric vehicles in California and find a quite high price elasticity where low-and middle-income households benefit 2 Schiraldi (2011) introduce a dynamic element to this class of models. In his model, consumers decide whether to sell or replace their car in every period, and the supply of new cars is constant over time. ...
Adoption of low-carbon technology is key to mitigating climate change. A possible unwanted consequence of fast technological progress is that products get outdated before their technical lifetime is over. We investigate whether the market value of electric vehicles, characterized by rapid technological progress, declines faster over their lifetime than gasoline vehicles, which represent a mature technology. We use novel data from Norway, the market with the highest market shares for electric vehicles in the world. The data are from the largest web platform for secondhand vehicles over the period 2011–2021. Prices of electric vehicles decline faster than gasoline vehicles. This seems to be driven by the electric vehicles with below median driving range. We hypothesize that the large price drop is mainly due to the fast technological improvement of electric vehicles.
... De Schepper, Van Passel, and Lizin (2015) argue that co-adoption of BEV and PV makes sense due to economic benefits. Our paper is also related to studies of the economics of BEV in general like Rapson and Muehlegger (2023) and adds one reason for low levels of low-and middle-income adoption (Muehlegger and Rapson, 2022). ...
We estimate the causal effect of the diffusion of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems on the share of battery electric vehicles (BEV) in the total vehicle fleet in Germany. Our estimates are based on instruments that induce exogenous variation in global radiation to PV installation. We find that PV adoption had a strong positive effect on the adoption of battery electric vehicles. PV adoption caused around a third of the increase in the battery electric vehicle share between 2017 and 2022 in Germany. We do not find evidence for reverse effects from BEV adoption on PV adoption. Our results imply that using PV can have effects beyond the technology itself.
Electric vehicles (EVs) are a sustainable mode of transportation, significantly reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The development of EV charging stations is crucial for supporting the growing number of EVs and integrating them into smart grid infrastructure. Efficient use of these stations requires optimized energy management and accurate forecasting of EV charging behaviors. However, forecasting accuracy is often hindered by missing data due to connectivity issues and equipment failures. To address these challenges, this study introduces a novel data imputation method ResiDualNet (Residual Dual BiLSTM-CNN Path Network), which is a residual sequence-to-sequence technique for imputing missing EV charging data. This model effectively captures underlying temporal and long-term dependencies, demonstrating strong performance across various scenarios. We compare our proposed model with two commonly used imputation methods KNN and Mean Imputation and one generative model, Generative Adversarial Network (GAN), across four different EV charging datasets. Experimental results demonstrate that our model significantly outperforms the others, showing an average improvement of 82% in terms of root mean squared error (RMSE) across all datasets. To further assess the effectiveness of our imputation model, we utilize three cutting-edge and newly introduced forecasting models: Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM), Mogrifier LSTM, and Sample Convolution and Interaction Network (SCINet) to predict EV charging load. The results indicate that SCINet outperforms the other forecasting techniques. Moreover, for SCINet, the dataset imputed by our proposed model performs second best after the real dataset, confirming the effectiveness of our imputation approach in improving forecasting accuracy for EV charging data. The complete source code is provided in the following repository: https://github.com/fffahim/ResiDualNet.git
This study investigates disparities in Electric Vehicle (EV) adoption among different socio-economic groups and geographic areas within Texas. We focused on the Texas Triangle, which includes Austin, Houston, San Antonio, and the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area. Using EV registration data, our study applied unsupervised machine learning techniques, specifically hierarchical clustering analysis, to identify distinct patterns of EV adoption. We conducted a longitudinal analysis to investigate changes in carmakers’ market share and to understand EV adoption patterns over time. We used Anselin Local Moran’s I analysis to profile the characteristics of Tesla owners. Our analysis results revealed significant market segmentation in the EV market, particularly between different sale price ranges and brands. Notably, Tesla emerged as a market leader with strong brand appeal in the mid to high price tiers. EV adoption has been spreading from the Texas Triangle. Clusters with overall high EV registration, as identified in Anselin Local Moran’s I analysis, were more associated with high-income, highly educated communities, where residents own multiple vehicles and are predominantly White. This trend was also observed among Tesla owners in relative to low-tier EV adopters. The mismatch exists between the density of registered EVs and the availability of both public and Tesla charging stations, with a notable disparity between urban centers and outskirts. More importantly, we highlight the reluctance of disadvantaged groups to purchase EVs, regardless of price or brand, underscoring the need for policy interventions that address distributive fairness. Current federal incentives and local rebate programs should better serve disadvantaged communities to promote equitable EV adoption.
Can changes in consumer psychology induced by media attention lead to pro-environmental
transportation behaviors or choices? In response, we match a unique dataset on media attention with electric vehicle (EV) sales data in China, employing a two-way fixed effects model and
an instrumental variable (IV) method to estimate the impact of media attention on EV adoption.
Our research found that media attention significantly accelerates the market diffusion of EVs. This
result is substantiated through IV tests and a series of robustness checks. Additionally, the
mediation effect model revealed that media attention indirectly influences EV adoption through
consumer EV attention, government EV focus, EV technological innovation, and EV purchase
subsidies. We also discovered that the effect of media attention on EV adoption is not only
positively moderated by the level of consumer policy awareness and education but is also more
pronounced in areas with high population density, high income, high education levels, and a high
air quality index. Our findings not only provide empirical evidence for understanding the role of
social psychological factors and external media stimuli in promoting behavioral changes towards
environmental protection but also offer guidance for policymakers and businesses in implementing effective market promotion strategies and formulating relevant policies, especially in
enhancing public cognition and acceptance of EVs.
We build a vehicle purchase and disposal model to analyze a policy that links a new electric vehicle (EV) purchase subsidy with a used gasoline vehicle scrappage requirement. We evaluate the policy based on changes in sales, scrappage, subsidy dollars spent, and emissions reductions. We find that linking a purchase subsidy with a scrappage requirement is expected to result in fewer new EV sales and carbon dioxide emissions reductions relative to a policy without linking. Our modeling reveals that these effects are due to trade‐in vehicle eligibility requirements and opportunity costs lowering additional participation in the linked policy. However, the linked policy significantly increases used vehicle scrappage and is more progressive than the unlinked policy. We find that emissions reductions due to additional scrappage are sensitive to how remaining miles of scrapped vehicles are replaced.
Current research aims to investigate the experts' opinions on the key factors (KFs) influencing the intention to use smart hybrid electric vehicles (SHEV). The objective is to systematically compile the psychological, social, and cultural attributes and present a comprehensive taxonomy of these key factors. The study employs a content analysis approach to compile experts' opinions addressing key factors related to the intention to use SHEV in an oil-rich economy. Through an in-depth analysis of the identified key factors in interviews, a taxonomy comprising 40 key codes is formulated. These codes are classified into ten main themes. The significance of this study lies in the development of a taxonomy that organizes knowledge, provides a common language, and offers researchers a conceptual framework for clear navigation and easier comprehension when categorizing key factors and establishing relationships between these categories.
This paper offers new insights on household choices related to transport, based on data from the third OECD Survey on Environmental Policies and Individual Behaviour Change (EPIC). The analysis explores the role of key factors determining the choice of fuel type in vehicles and the choice of transport mode in trips. The study uses choice experiment data to estimate the importance of key drivers of electric vehicle purchase decisions and to project future adoption rates of electric vehicles. Results show that income, location and environmental awareness play important roles in the choice of whether to own a vehicle, and its fuel type. Convenient access to charging, such as at home or workplace, can significantly increase the likelihood of choosing an electric vehicle.
We provide an empirical analysis on the relation between culture and revealed environmental preferences. Switzerland's citizens share the same set of institutions but belong to multiple population groups, which differ by culture and language across distinct geographical locations. This unique setting allows us to disentangle the effect of culture on individual consumer preferences from institutional characteristics. We analyze the effect of culture on energy efficient vehicle registration, using municipality level data and applying a spatial fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design at the internal French/German language border. Our results indicate that French-speaking municipalities have a 3 to 6 percentage points higher share of energy efficient vehicles, compared to their German-speaking counterparts. These findings suggest that French-speakers place a higher value on the environment, which may be due to their higher sense of collectivism and altruism.
Widespread electric vehicle (EV) adoption is crucial for achieving California’s climate goals. The inclusion of marginalized populations in this process is important and will require that they have access to charging infrastructure. Public EV charging stations may help reduce the EV adoption barriers affecting these populations. This study combines public charging station location data with American Community Survey data at the census block group level in California, finding that public charger access is lower in block groups with below-median household incomes and in those with a Black and Hispanic majority populations. These public charger access disparities are more pronounced in areas with a higher proportion of multi-unit housing, where they are critical for EV operation due to a lower likelihood of residential charger access. Controlling for distance to the nearest highway or freeway, multi-unit housing unit rate, and median household income, we find that Black and Hispanic majority block groups are the only race and ethnicity group that is significantly less likely to have access to any public charger in their block groups compared to the rest of the state. The odds of having public charger access for the group is 0.7-times that of the no majority reference group. The access gap is even larger for the publicly-funded charging stations where Black and Hispanic majority block groups are approximately half as likely as the no-majority reference group to have access. Hence directing a larger portion of the funding to underserved communities and further government involvement in filling the public charger access gap can be crucial in achieving widespread and equitable EV adoption.
Building on an idea in Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003), this article investigates the application of synthetic control methods to comparative case studies. We discuss the advantages of these methods and apply them to study the effects of Proposition 99, a large-scale tobacco control program that California implemented in 1988. We demonstrate that following Proposition 99 tobacco consumption fell markedly in California relative to a comparable synthetic control region. We estimate that by the year 2000 annual per-capita cigarette sales in California were about 26 packs lower than what they would have been in the absence of Proposition 99. Given that many policy interventions and events of interest in social sciences take place at an aggregate level (countries, regions, cities, etc.) and affect a small number of aggregate units, the potential applicability of synthetic control methods to comparative case studies is very large, especially in situations where traditional regression methods are not appropriate. The methods proposed in this article produce informative inference regardless of the number of available comparison units, the number of available time periods, and whether the data are individual (micro) or aggregate (macro). Software to compute the estimators proposed in this article is available at the authors' web-pages.Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.
This paper uses new, large-scale vehicle registry data from Norway and a two-sided market framework to show nonneutrality of different subsidies and estimate their impact on electric vehicle adoption when network externalities are present. Estimates suggest a strong positive connection between electric vehicle purchases and both consumer price and charging station subsidies. Counterfactual analyses suggest that between 2010 and 2015, every dollar spent on station subsidies resulted in more than twice as many additional electric vehicle purchases than the same amount spent on price subsidies. However, this relation inverts with increased spending, as station subsidies’ impact tapers off faster. (JEL D12, D62, D85, H25, L62, Q54)
We provide the first at-scale estimate of electric vehicle (EV) home charging. Previous estimates are based on conflicting surveys or are extrapolated from a small, unrepresentative sample of households with dedicated EV meters. We combine billions of hourly electricity meter measurements with address-level EV registration records from California households, including 64,000 EV owners. The average EV increases overall household load by 2.9 kilowatt-hours per day, well under half the amount assumed by state regulators. Results imply that EVs travel less than expected on electric power, raising questions about transportation electrification for climate policy.
To overcome adoption barriers and promote battery electric vehicles (BEVs) as an energy efficient consumer transportation option, a number of states offer subsidies to consumers for BEVs. We use a national data set of vehicle registrations and state-level financial incentives to assess the impact of vehicle purchase subsidies on adoption using both difference-in-differences and synthetic controls methods. We find that incentives offered as direct purchase rebates generate increased levels of new BEV registrations at a rate of approximately 8 percent per thousand dollars of incentive offered. Between 2011 and 2015, vehicle rebate incentives are associated with an increase in overall BEV registrations of approximately 11 percent. Our findings indicate incentives offered as state income tax credits do not have a statistically significant effect on BEV adoptions, though we caution this may be a result of limited temporal variation in BEV incentives across our sample. Responses to rebate incentives do not differ significantly by the make of the vehicle purchased (i.e., Tesla and non-Tesla vehicles). We combine our results with recent assessments of marginal environmental costs of electric vehicle charging and measure net welfare effects of BEV subsidy programs. Our analysis indicates these programs are not welfare-improving if only considering benefits associated with avoided emissions. Additional benefits associated with long-term market growth, production cost savings, network externalities, or accelerated innovation could substantially impact the net welfare outcomes.
Endogenous quality and bargaining are important features of many markets but are typically omitted from studies of incidence. We develop a model with product upgrades and costly bargaining and find that tax rate pass-through only partially characterizes the welfare impact of taxation; consumers may respond to a tax or subsidy by changing product quality or by changing their bargaining effort. We apply the insights of our theory to the study of subsidies for green goods, specifically hybrid electric vehicles in Canada. We utilize highly detailed transaction data and leverage panel variation in subsidies across provinces for identification. Our baseline estimate finds that prices rises by 1000 increase in the subsidy. But, this pass-through estimate substantially underestimates consumer gains because a majority of this price increase ($459–≈ 80%) is due to increased product quality in the form of additional options and features.
The market for plug-in electric vehicles (EVs) exhibits indirect network effects due to the interdependence between EV adoption and charging station investment. Through a stylized model, we demonstrate that indirect network effects on both sides of the market lead to feedback loops that could alter the diffusion process of the new technology. Based on quarterly EV sales and charging station deployment in 353 metro areas from 2011 to 2013, our empirical analysis finds indirect network effects on both sides of the market, with those on the EV demand side being stronger. The federal income tax credit of up to $7,500 for EV buyers contributed to about 40% of EV sales during 2011–13, with feedback loops explaining 40% of that increase. A policy of equal-sized spending but subsidizing charging station deployment could have been more than twice as effective in promoting EV adoption.
Since 2006, US households have received more than $18 billion in federal income tax credits for weatherizing their homes, installing solar panels, buying hybrid and electric vehicles, and other “clean energy” investments. We use tax return data to examine the socioeconomic characteristics of program recipients. We find that these tax expenditures have gone predominantly to higher- income Americans. The bottom three income quintiles have received about 10% of all credits, while the top quintile has received about 60%. The most extreme is the program aimed at electric vehicles, where we find that the top income quintile has received about 90% of all credits. By comparing to previous work on the distributional consequences of pricing greenhouse gas emissions, we conclude that tax credits are likely to be much less attractive on distributional grounds than market mechanisms to reduce greenhouse gases (GHGs). © 2016 by the National Bureau of Economic Research. All rights reserved.
We investigate whether car buyers are myopic about future fuel costs. We estimate the effect of gasoline prices on short-run equilibrium prices of cars of different fuel economies. We then compare the implied changes in willingness-to-pay to the associated changes in expected future gasoline costs for cars of different fuel economies in order to calculate implicit discount rates. Using different assumptions about annual mileage, survival rates, and demand elasticities, we calculate a range of implicit discount rates similar to the range of interest rates paid by car buyers who borrow. We interpret this as showing little evidence of consumer myopia. (JEL D12, H25, L11, L62, L71, L81)
This paper estimates the incidence of tax incentives for the Toyota Prius. Transaction microdata indicate that both federal and state incentives were fully captured by consumers. This is surprising because Toyota faced a binding production constraint, which suggests that they could have appropriated the gains. The paper proffers an explanation based on an intertemporal link in pricing that stems from search frictions, which has the unconventional implication that statutory burden influenced economic burden. The paper develops a bounding estimator to account for endogenous selection into preferential tax regimes that may be useful in other contexts. (JEL H22, H24, L11, L62)
We analyze the determinants of hybrid vehicle demand, focusing on gasoline prices and income tax incentives. We find that hybrid vehicle sales in 2006 would have been 37% lower had gasoline prices stayed at the 1999 levels, and the effect of the federal income tax credit program is estimated at 20% in 2006. Under the program, the cost of reducing gasoline consumption was 177 per ton. We show that the cost effectiveness of federal tax programs can be improved by a flat rebate scheme.
Federal, state, and local governments use a variety of incentives to induce consumer adoption of hybrid-electric vehicles. We study the relative efficacy of state sales tax waivers, income tax credits, and non-tax incentives and find that the type of tax incentive offered is as important as the generosity of the incentive. Conditional on value, sales tax waivers are associated with more than a ten-fold increase in hybrid sales relative to income tax credits. In addition, we examine how adoption varies with fuel prices. Rising gasoline prices are associated with greater hybrid vehicle sales, but this effect operates almost entirely through high fuel-economy vehicles. By comparing consumer response to sales tax waivers and estimated future fuel savings, we estimate an implicit discount rate of 14.6% on future fuel savings.
This research is designed to help researchers and policy makers ground their work in the reality of how US consumers are thinking and behaving with respect to automotive fuel economy. Our data are from semi-structured interviews with 57 households across nine lifestyle “sectors.” We found no household that analyzed their fuel costs in a systematic way in their automobile or gasoline purchases. Almost none of these households track gasoline costs over time or consider them explicitly in household budgets. These households may know the cost of their last tank of gasoline and the unit price of gasoline on that day, but this accurate information is rapidly forgotten and replaced by typical information. One effect of this lack of knowledge and information is that when consumers buy a vehicle, they do not have the basic building blocks of knowledge assumed by the model of economically rational decision-making, and they make large errors estimating gasoline costs and savings over time.Moreover, we find that consumer value for fuel economy is not only about private cost savings. Fuel economy can be a symbolic value as well, for example among drivers who view resource conservation or thrift as important values to communicate. Consumers also assign non-monetary meaning to fuel prices, for example seeing rising prices as evidence of conspiracy. This research suggests that consumer responses to fuel economy technology and changes in fuel prices are more complex than economic assumptions suggest.The US Department of Energy and the Energy Foundation supported this research. The authors are solely responsible for the content and conclusions presented.
We estimate the effect of tax rebates offered by Canadian Provinces on the sales of hybrid electric vehicles. We find that these rebates led to a large increase in the market share of hybrid vehicles. In particular, we estimate that 26% of the hybrid vehicles sold during the rebate programs can be attributed to the rebate, and that intermediate cars, intermediate SUVs and some high performance compact cars were crowded out as a result. However, this implies that the rebate programs also subsidized many consumers who would have bought either hybrid vehicles or other fuel-efficient vehicles in any case. Consequently, the average cost of reducing carbon emissions from these programs is estimated to be $195 per tonne.
We investigate the effects of “Cash for Clunkers”, a 91 to $301 even after accounting for the benefit of the program in reducing criteria pollutants. In addition, the program is estimated to have created 3,676 job-years in the auto assembly and parts industries from June to December of 2009. That effect decreased to 2,050 by May 2010.
This article investigates the economic effects of conflict, using the terrorist conflict in the Basque Country as a case study. We find that, after the outbreak of terrorism in the late 1960's, per capita GDP in the Basque Country declined about 10 percentage points relative to a synthetic control region without terrorism. In addition, we use the 1998-1999 truce as a natural experiment. We find that stocks of firms with a significant part of their business in the Basque Country showed a positive relative performance when truce became credible, and a negative relative performance at the end of the cease-fire.
The Effects of Fiscal Stimulus: Evidence from the 2009 Cash for Clunkers Program
- Mian
Energy Prices and Electric Vehicle Adoption
- James B Bushnell
- Erich J Muehlegger
- Rapson
- S David
Future paths of electric vehicle adoption in the United States: Predictable determinants, obstacles and opportunities
- James E Archsmith
- Muehlegger
- Erich
- David S Rapson