Content uploaded by Joseph Nowarski
Author content
All content in this area was uploaded by Joseph Nowarski on Oct 31, 2022
Content may be subject to copyright.
Necessary Change in CO2 Emissions per GDP
to Reach 1.5°C-2.0°C Climate Change Limit in 2100
Joseph Nowarski, M.Sc., ME – Energy Conservation Expert
Version 1.1.1, 30 October 2022
DOI:10.5281/zenodo.7264421
all versions DOI:10.5281/zenodo.7264420
Abstract
The necessary cumulative CO2 emissions reduction to reach the 1.5°C Global
Warming limit in 2100 is 2,353,587 MtCO2. This may be done by decreasing the
world’s CO2 emissions per GDP (Cp$) annually by 18%.
The necessary cumulative CO2 emissions reduction to reach the 1.7°C Global
Warming limit in 2100 is 2,086,161 MtCO2. This may be done by decreasing the
world’s CO2 emissions per GDP (Cp$) annually by 9.34%.
The necessary cumulative CO2 emissions reduction to reach the 2.0°C Global
Warming limit in 2100 is 1,684,038 MtCO2. This may be done by decreasing the
world’s CO2 emissions per GDP (Cp$) annually by 5.91%.
Keywords: Climate Change, Global Warming, CO2 emissions, CO2 per GDP, GDP per capita, Global Warming
forecast
Necessary Change in CO2 Emissions per GDP to Reach 1.5°C-2.0°C Climate Change Limit in 2100
2 / 16
Glossary
ΔCO2 CO2 emissions of the country above the world emissions per
capita in the period 1991-2020, tCO2
ΔCO2/y change in CO2 emissions per year
ΣΔCO2/y cumulative change in CO2 emissions per year in 2100 in the
mitigation program
ΣΣΔCO2/y sum of cumulative (2026-2100) change in CO2 emissions per year
in the mitigation program
Ave average
BAU Business As Usual
BL baseline
CCO2 global cumulative CO2 emissions according to publication [1] [2],
CO2 emissions produced from fossil fuels and cement production
only – land use change is not included, tCO2
CO2 emissions of Carbon Dioxide, CO2
CO2GW correlation between cumulative CO2 emissions and Global
Warming = 0.000745°C/GtCO2 [4]
Cp$ CO2 emissions per GDP, tCO2/y,$ (ton CO2 per year, per $2017)
Global Warming global surface temperature change over land+ocean above
1850-1900 baseline (°C)
GDP Gross Domestic Product, constant international $(2017)
GtCO2 Giga-ton of CO2, 109 ton, 10^9 ton, 1,000,000,000 ton of CO2
ktCO2 kilo-ton CO2 = 103 ton, 10^3 ton, 1,000 ton CO2
MtCO2 Mega-ton CO2 = 106 ton, 10^6 ton, 1,000,000 ton CO2
OWID Our World in Data – Internet site [1] [2]
Ref reference
tCO2 ton CO2
Necessary Change in CO2 Emissions per GDP to Reach 1.5°C-2.0°C Climate Change Limit in 2100
3 / 16
tCO2/y,cap ton CO2 per year, per capita
WB World Bank
Formula for Average Annual Change
Formula 1 - Average annual change of parameter X in the period 1990-2020
[%/year]
rX = (X2/X1)^(1/(y2-y1)) - 1
rX average annual change of parameter X in the period from y1 to y2,
%/year
X1 value of parameter X at the beginning of the period
X2 value of parameter X at the end of the period
y1 beginning of the period = 1990
y2 end of the period = 2020
Correlation between Cumulative CO2 Emissions and Global Warming
The correlation between cumulative CO2 emissions and Global Warming was
analyzed in the publication “Global Warming and Cumulative CO2” [4].
Formula 2 - Correlation between Cumulative CO2 Emissions and Global Warming
[4] [°C/GtCO2]
CO2GW = 0.000745°C/GtCO2
Necessary Change in CO2 Emissions per GDP to Reach 1.5°C-2.0°C Climate Change Limit in 2100
4 / 16
Sources of Data
The datasets are from the following sources:
OWID [1] [2] CO2 emissions produced from fossil fuels and cement
production only – land use change is not included
World Bank (WB) [3] GDP, PPP (constant 2017 international $)
Dataset
Table 1 - Dataset [1] [2] [3]
CO2 GDP
emissions
Source of data OWID World Bank
Reference [1] [2] [3]
From year 1990 1990
To year
2020 2020
CO2 from fossil fuels Yes
CO2 from cement production Yes
CO2 from other sources No
Other GHG No
Land use change No
Units Mt O2/y Constant International $ 2017
Resolution 1 ktCO2/y 1 Constant International $ 2017
The CO2 emissions dataset is from publication [1] [2], CO2 emissions produced
from fossil fuels and cement production only – land use change is not included.
Table 2 - CO2 emissions dataset without international transport [1] [2]
[MtCO2/y]
1990 2020
countries 192 192
dataset countries’ CO2 emissions MtCO2/y 22,023 33,654
world CO2 emissions MtCO2/y 22,192 33,803
dataset/world MtCO2/y 99.24% 99.56%
Table 3 - GDP dataset [3] [M$GDP/y]
1990 2020
countries 192 192
dataset countries GDP M$GDP/y 50,994,261 125,514,935
world GDP M$GDP/y 51,241,011 126,318,951
dataset/world M$GDP/y 99.52% 99.36%
Necessary Change in CO2 Emissions per GDP to Reach 1.5°C-2.0°C Climate Change Limit in 2100
5 / 16
GDP per Capita and CO2 Emissions per GDP 1990-2020
GDP per capita and CO2 emissions per GDP in the period 1990-2020 were
analyzed in the publication “CO2 Emissions per GDP” [6]
Table 4 - World Averages [1] [2] [3]
change
1990 2020 2020/1990 1990-2020
%/year
Population 5,327,529,078 7,794,798,725 146% 1.277%
CO2 emissions MtCO2/y 22,192 33,803 152% 1.413%
CO2 per Capita tCO2/y,cap 4.17 4.34 104% 0.134%
GDP M$/y 51,241,011 126,318,951 247% 3.053%
GDP per Capita $/y,cap 9,618 16,206 168% 1.754%
CO2 per GDP tCO2/$GDP 0.000433 0.000268 62% -1.592%
Chart 1 - GDP per capita 1990-2020 [1] [2] [8] [$GDP per year, per
capita]
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
17,000
18,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
The world’s CO2 emissions are without international transport.
The average annual changes were calculated using Formula 1.
The average change in CO2 per GDP in the period 1990-2020 is -1.592% per year
(decreasing).
Necessary Change in CO2 Emissions per GDP to Reach 1.5°C-2.0°C Climate Change Limit in 2100
6 / 16
Chart 2 - World CO2 emissions per GDP [1] [2] [3] [tCO2 per year, per
$GDP]
0.00025
0.00027
0.00029
0.00031
0.00033
0.00035
0.00037
0.00039
0.00041
0.00043
0.00045
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Cumulative Global CO2 Emissions
The CO2 emissions dataset [1] [2] was converted to the 1875 baseline in
publication [5].
Table 5 - Global cumulative CO2 emissions and international transport [5]
[tCO2 above 1875 baseline]
1990 2020
Global cumulative CO2 emissions including
international transport tCO2 792,689,057,443 1,681,608,597,211
International transport cumulative CO2 emissions tCO2 16,042,804,984 43,700,803,946
Global cumulative CO2 emissions without
international transport tCO2 776,646,252,459 1,637,907,793,265
CO2 Emissions Forecast
The CO2 emissions forecast for 2020-2100 is from the publication “CO2 Emission per
GDP Forecast 2020-2100” [7].
Necessary Change in CO2 Emissions per GDP to Reach 1.5°C-2.0°C Climate Change Limit in 2100
7 / 16
Chart 3 - CO2 emissions per year without international transport BAU
forecast 2020-2100 [MtCO2/y] [7]
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
2090
2095
2100
The dataset of CO2 emissions forecast for 2020-2100 is available in the publication
[8].
World GDP Forecast
GDP forecast for 2020-2100 is from the publication “CO2 Emission per GDP Forecast
2020-2100” [7].
Necessary Change in CO2 Emissions per GDP to Reach 1.5°C-2.0°C Climate Change Limit in 2100
8 / 16
Chart 4 - World GDP/y forecast 2020-2100 [7]
0
100,000,000,000,000
200,000,000,000,000
300,000,000,000,000
400,000,000,000,000
500,000,000,000,000
600,000,000,000,000
700,000,000,000,000
800,000,000,000,000
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
2090
2095
2100
The dataset of the world GDP forecast for 2020-2100 is available in the publication
[8].
CO2 Emissions per GDP forecast
CO2 Emissions per GDP are calculated by dividing the CO2 emissions without
international transport per year, by GDP in the same year.
Table 6 - CO2 emissions per GDP forecast
1990 2020 2100
CO2 emissions per year without
international transport tCO2/y 22,191,664,636 33,803,026,586 70,191,421,088
World GDP $GDP/y 51,241,010,872,505 126,318,951,010,345 728,126,523,404,062
CO2 emissions per GDP tCO2/$GDP 0.000433 0.000268 0.000096
Necessary Change in CO2 Emissions per GDP to Reach 1.5°C-2.0°C Climate Change Limit in 2100
9 / 16
Chart 5 - CO2 emissions per GDP 2020-2100 [tCO2/$GDP]
0.00005
0.00010
0.00015
0.00020
0.00025
0.00030
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
2090
2095
2100
The dataset of CO2 emissions per GDP forecast for 2020-2100 is available in the
publication [8].
BAU Average Annual Change in Cp$
Table 7 - BAU average annual change in Cp$
1990 2020
CO2 emissions per year tCO2/y 22,191,664,636
33,803,026,586
GDP $GDP/y 51,241,010,872,505
126,318,951,010,345
Cp$ tCO2/$GDP 0.000433
0.000268
average annual change in Cp$ %/year -1.592%
Business as Usual Forecast for 2025
It is assumed in this work that the CO2 mitigation measures additional to BAU will
not start before the end of 2025.
Necessary Change in CO2 Emissions per GDP to Reach 1.5°C-2.0°C Climate Change Limit in 2100
10 / 16
Table 8 - BAU forecast for 2025 [5]
without International Transport Global
Cp$ CO2/y CCO2 International CCO2 GW
BL1875 Transport BL1875 BL1850-1900
Year GDP
tCO2/$GDP
MtCO2/y
MtCO2 MtCO2/y MtCO2 °C
2020 132,918,157,185,392
0.000254 33,803 1,613,287 1,004 1,656,988
1.235
2021 137,023,952,204,136
0.000233 31,995 1,645,282 1,024 1,690,007
1.260
2022 141,214,160,123,108
0.000230 32,444 1,677,726 1,044 1,723,495
1.285
2023 145,488,780,942,308
0.000226 32,894 1,710,619 1,065 1,757,454
1.310
2024 149,847,814,661,735
0.000223 33,345 1,743,964 1,086 1,791,885
1.336
2025 154,291,261,281,390
0.000219 33,797 1,777,761 1,108 1,826,789
1.362
Necessary Annual Change in CO2 Emissions per GDP to Reach 1.5°C Global
Warming Limit in 2100
Table 9 - Years to Global Warming 1.5°C
ΔCp$/y year ΔCO2/y ΔCO2/y ΣΔCO2/y ΣΣΔCO2/y GW in 2100
GW=1.5°C 2026 2026 2100 2026-2100 BL1850-1900
%/y %/y MtCO2/y MtCO2/y MtCO2/y °C
-1.592%
2031 +1.296% +438 14,069 780,971
+3.837
-10%
2033 -7.359% -2,487 -33,738 -2,126,985
+1.669
-15%
2037 -12.506% -4,227 -33,796 -2,301,846
+1.539
-17%
2042 -14.564% -4,922 -33,797 -2,338,698
+1.512
-18%
2085 -15.594% -5,270 -33,797 -2,353,587
+1.500
ΔCp$/y average annual change in Cp$ 2025-2100, %/y
year GW=1.5°C year when Global Warming will reach 1.5°C
ΔCO2/y 2026 change in CO2 emissions per year in 2026
ΣΔCO2/y cumulative change in CO2 emissions per year in
2100
ΣΣΔCO2/y sum of cumulative (2026-2100) change in CO2
emissions per year
GW in 2100 Global Warming in 2100 above 1850-1900 baseline
Necessary Change in CO2 Emissions per GDP to Reach 1.5°C-2.0°C Climate Change Limit in 2100
11 / 16
Necessary Annual Change in CO2 Emissions per Capita to Reach 1.7°C Global
Warming Limit in 2100
Table 10 - Years to Global Warming 1.7°C
ΔCp$/y year Countries ΔCO2/y ΣΔCO2/y ΣΣΔCO2/y GW in 2100
GW=1.7°C ΔCO2/y 2026 2100 2026-2100 BL1850-1900
%/y %/y MtCO2/y MtCO2/y MtCO2/y °C
-1.592%
2031 +1.296% +438 14,069 780,971
+3.837
-5%
2042 -2.212% -5,270 -30,393 -1,469,069
+2.160
-9%
2066 -6.329% -5,270 -33,662 -2,062,239
+1.718
-9.340%
2099 -6.679% -5,270 -33,695 -2,086,161
+1.700
year GW=1.7°C year when Global Warming will reach 1.7°C
Necessary Annual Change in CO2 Emissions per Capita to Reach 2.0°C Global
Warming Limit in 2100
Chart 6 - Years to Global Warming 2.0°C
ΔCp$/y year Countries ΔCO2/y ΣΔCO2/y ΣΣΔCO2/y GW in 2100
GW=2.0°C ΔCO2/y 2026 2100 2026-2100 BL1850-1900
%/y %/y MtCO2/y MtCO2/y MtCO2/y °C
-1.592%
2031 +1.296% +438 14,069 780,971
+3.837
-5%
2042 -2.212% -5,270 -30,393 -1,469,069
+2.160
-5.910%
2100 -3.149% -1,064 -32,143 -1,684,038
+2.000
year GW=2.0°C year when Global Warming will reach 2.0°C
Necessary Change in CO2 Emissions per GDP to Reach 1.5°C-2.0°C Climate Change Limit in 2100
12 / 16
Scenarios of Annual Change in Cp$
Chart 7 - Maximum CO2 emissions per GDP (Cp$) [tCO2/GDP]
0.00000
0.00005
0.00010
0.00015
0.00020
0.00025
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
2090
2095
2100
CO2 emissions per GDP
1.5°C, -17%/y 1.7°C, -7.85%/y 2.0°C, -4.46%/y
Chart 8 - Cumulative emissions reduction per year in scenarios of average
annual change in Cp$ [MtCO2/y]
-35,000
-30,000
-25,000
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
2090
2095
2100
1.5°C, -18%/y 1.7°C, -9.34%/y 2.0°C, -5.91%/y
Necessary Change in CO2 Emissions per GDP to Reach 1.5°C-2.0°C Climate Change Limit in 2100
13 / 16
Chart 9 - Cumulative emissions reduction per period (2025-2100) in scenarios
of average annual change in Cp$ [MtCO2/period]
-2,500,000
-2,000,000
-1,500,000
-1,000,000
-500,000
0
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
2090
2095
2100
1.5°C, -18%/y 1.7°C, -9.34%/y 2.0°C, -5.91%/y
Chart 10 - Global Warming in scenarios of annual change in Cp$ [°C]
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
1.70
1.80
1.90
2.00
2.10
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
2090
2095
2100
°C
1.5°C, -17%/y 1.7°C, -7.85%/y 2.0°C, -4.46%/y
Necessary Change in CO2 Emissions per GDP to Reach 1.5°C-2.0°C Climate Change Limit in 2100
14 / 16
Table 11 - Maximum CO2 emissions per GDP (Cp$) to reach 1.5°C-2.0°C Climate
Change limit in 2100
Target 2.0°C 1.7°C 1.5°C target 2.0°C 1.7°C 1.5°C
ΔCp$/y -4.46% -7.85% -17.00% ΔCp$/y -4.46% -7.85% -17.00%
%/y %/y %/y %/y %/y %/y
2020 0.00025431
0.00025431 0.00025431
2061
0.00002444
0.00000642 0.00000017
2021 0.00023350
0.00023350 0.00023350
2062
0.00002300
0.00000582 0.00000014
2022 0.00022975
0.00022975 0.00022975
2063 0.000021
64
0.00000528 0.00000012
2023 0.00022609
0.00022609 0.00022609
2064
0.00002036
0.00000478 0.00000010
2024 0.00022252
0.00022252 0.00022252
2065
0.00001915
0.00000434 0.00000008
2025 0.00021905
0.00021905 0.00021905
2066
0.00001802
0.00000393 0.00000006
2026 0.00020610
0.00019859 0.00017962
2067
0.00001696
0.00000356 0.00000005
2027 0.00019392
0.00018004 0.00014729
2068
0.00001596
0.00000323 0.00000004
2028 0.00018246
0.00016322 0.00012078
2069
0.00001501
0.00000293 0.00000004
2029 0.00017168
0.00014798 0.00009904
2070
0.00001413
0.00000266 0.00000003
2030 0.00016153
0.00013416 0.00008121
2071
0.00001329
0.00000241 0.00000002
2031 0.00015198
0.00012163 0.00006659
2072
0.00001250
0.00000218 0.00000002
2032 0.00014300
0.00011027 0.00005461
2073
0.00001177
0.00000198 0.00000002
2033 0.00013455
0.00009997 0.00004478
2074
0.00001107
0.00000179 0.00000001
2034 0.00012660
0.00009063 0.00003672
2075
0.00001042
0.00000163 0.00000001
2035 0.00011912
0.00008217 0.00003011
2076
0.00000980
0.00000147 0.00000001
2036 0.00011208
0.00007449 0.00002469
2077
0.00000922
0.00000134 0.00000001
2037 0.00010545
0.00006753 0.00002024
2078
0.00000868
0.00000121 0.00000001
2038 0.00009922
0.00006123 0.00001660
2079
0.00000816
0.00000110 0.00000000
2039 0.00009336
0.00005551 0.00001361
2080
0.00000768
0.00000100 0.00000000
2040 0.00008784
0.00005032 0.00001116
2081
0.00000723
0.00000090 0.00000000
2041 0.00008265
0.00004562 0.00000915
2082
0.00000680
0.00000082 0.00000000
2042 0.00007776
0.00004136 0.00000751
2083
0.00000640
0.00000074 0.00000000
2043 0.00007317
0.00003750 0.00000615
2084
0.00000602
0.00000067 0.00000000
2044 0.00006884
0.00003400 0.00000505
2085
0.00000566
0.00000061 0.00000000
2045 0.00006478
0.00003082 0.00000414
2086 0.0000
0533
0.00000055 0.00000000
2046 0.00006095
0.00002794 0.00000339
2087
0.00000501
0.00000050 0.00000000
2047 0.00005734
0.00002533 0.00000278
2088
0.00000472
0.00000045 0.00000000
2048 0.00005396
0.00002297 0.00000228
2089
0.00000444
0.00000041 0.00000000
2049 0.00005077
0.00002082 0.00000187
2090
0.00000418
0.00000037 0.00000000
2050 0.00004777
0.00001888 0.00000153
2091
0.00000393
0.00000034 0.00000000
2051 0.00004494
0.00001711 0.00000126
2092
0.00000370
0.00000031 0.00000000
2052 0.00004229
0.00001552 0.00000103
2093
0.00000348
0.00000028 0.00000000
2053 0.00003979
0.00001407 0.00000085
2094
0.00000327
0.00000025 0.00000000
2054 0.00003744
0.00001275 0.00000069
2095
0.00000308
0.00000023 0.00000000
2055 0.00003522
0.00001156 0.00000057
2096
0.00000290
0.00000021 0.00000000
2056 0.00003314
0.00001048 0.00000047
2097
0.00000273
0.00000019 0.00000000
2057 0.00003118
0.00000950 0.00000038
2098
0.00000257
0.00000017 0.00000000
2058 0.00002934
0.00000862 0.00000031
2099
0.00000241
0.00000015 0.00000000
2059 0.00002761
0.00000781 0.00000026
2100
0.00000227
0.00000014 0.00000000
2060 0.00002598
0.00000708 0.00000021
Necessary Change in CO2 Emissions per GDP to Reach 1.5°C-2.0°C Climate Change Limit in 2100
15 / 16
References
1. Hannah Ritchie, Max Roser, Edouard Mathieu, Bobbie Macdonald and
Pablo Rosado - Data on CO2 and Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Our World
in Data
https://github.com/owid/co2-data#data-on-co2-and-greenhouse-gas-
emissions-by-our-world-in-data
2. Our World in Data, Cumulative CO2 emissions, 2020
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-co-emissions
3. GDP, PPP (constant 2017 international $) - World Bank, International
Comparison Program, World Bank | World Development Indicators
database, World Bank | Eurostat-OECD PPP Programme
4. Global Warming and Cumulative CO2 - Joseph Nowarski, DOI:
10.5281/zenodo.6619550
5. Dataset Global Warming Forecast using Acceleration Factors - Joseph
Nowarski, DOI:10.5281/zenodo.7151890
6. CO2 Emissions per GDP – Joseph Nowarski, DOI:10.5281/zenodo.7264411
7. CO2 Emission per GDP Forecast 2020-2100 – Joseph Nowarski,
DOI:10.5281/zenodo.7264413
8. Dataset CO2 Emissions per GDP Forecast 2020-2100 – Joseph Nowarski,
DOI:10.5281/zenodo.7264415
* * *
Necessary Change in CO2 Emissions per GDP to Reach 1.5°C-2.0°C Climate Change Limit in 2100
16 / 16