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Cumulative CO2 Emissions per Cumulative GDP 1990-2020
Joseph Nowarski, M.Sc., ME – Energy Conservation Expert
Version 1.1.1, 30 October 2022
DOI:10.5281/zenodo.7264417
all versions DOI:10.5281/zenodo.7264416
Abstract
This work analyzes cumulative CO2 emissions per cumulative GDP (CCp$$) in the
period 1990-2020. The dataset includes 192 countries, 99.1% of the population of
the world, 99.4% GDP of the world and 99.2% of the global cumulative CO2
emissions without international transport.
The cumulative GDP of the countries included in this work is 2,564 MM$GDP, 99.4%
of the world’s cumulative GDP of 2,579 MM$GDP.
The CCp$$ of the countries included in this work is 0.0003331 tCO2/$GDP, 99.7% of
the world average 0.0003340 tCO2/$GDP.
42 countries have CCp$$ above the world average with 555,796 Mega-tons of
cumulative CO2 emissions in the period 1990-2020, compared to 298,338 MtCO2
(54%) of the 150 countries below the world average CCp$$. The cumulative CO2
emissions of those 42 countries above the world average increased global
warming by 0.125°C.
Keywords: Climate Change, Global Warming, CO2 emissions, CO2 per GDP, cumulative CO2, cumulative GDP,
cumulative CO2 per cumulative GDP
Cumulative CO2 Emissions per Cumulative GDP - Joseph Nowarski
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Glossary
Ave average
CCO2 cumulative CO2 emissions according to publication [1] [2], CO2
emissions produced from fossil fuels and cement production only –
land use change is not included, tCO2
CO2 emissions of Carbon Dioxide, CO2
CO2GW correlation between cumulative CO2 emissions and global
warming = 0.000745°C/GtCO2 [4]
CCp$$ cumulative CO2 emissions per cumulative GDP in the period 1990-
2020, tCO2/$GDP (ton CO2 per $2017)
CCp$$W World average CCp$$, tCO2/$GDP
Cp$ CO2 emissions per GDP, tCO2/y,$ (ton CO2 per year, per $2017)
GDP Gross Domestic Product, constant international $(2017)
Global Warming global surface temperature change over land+ocean above
1850-1900 baseline (°C)
GtCO2 Giga-ton of CO2, 109 ton, 10^9 ton, 1,000,000,000 ton of CO2
M$ Million $
M$/y Million $ per year
MM$ 1012 $, 10^12 $, 1,000,000,000,000 $
MtCO2 Mega-ton CO2 = 106 ton, 10^6 ton, 1,000,000 ton CO2
OWID Our World in Data – Internet site [1] [2]
Ref reference
tCO2 ton CO2
WB World Bank
Cumulative CO2 Emissions per Cumulative GDP - Joseph Nowarski
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Sources of Data
The datasets are from the following sources:
OWID [1] [2] CO2 emissions produced from fossil fuels and cement
production only – land use change is not included
World Bank (WB) [3] GDP, PPP (constant 2017 international $)
GDP Data
WB publication [3] includes GDP data for 191 countries for the year 2020 and 160
countries for the year 1990.
Part of the missing GDP data for 1990+ in the World Bank dataset [3] was
calculated using OWID [1] [2] and conversion factors between the datasets for
each year based on conversion factors between the datasets for the USA.
In cases of missing data in both sources for years 1990+, the average annual
change was applied, based on the existing data for other years. In the case of the
negative average annual change, the missing data for years 1990+ were
completed proportionally to the word changes.
Data for one country (Taiwan) are based on OWID [1] [2]. Missing data for the
years 2019-2020 were completed proportionally to the word changes.
Cumulative CO2 Emissions per Cumulative GDP - Joseph Nowarski
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Dataset
Table 1 - Dataset [1] [2] [3]
CO2 GDP
emissions
Source of data OWID World Bank
Reference [1] [2] [3]
Countries 192 192
From year 1990 1990
To year
2020 2020
CO2 from fossil fuels Yes
CO2 from cement production Yes
CO2 from other sources No
Other GHG No
Land use change No
Units Mt CO2/y Constant International $ 2017
Resolution 1 kt CO2/y 1 Constant International $ 2017
Table 2 - Cumulative CO2 emissions 1990-2020 dataset [1] [2] [MtCO2]
1990-2020
countries 192
dataset countries’ cumulative CO2 MtCO2 854,134
world cumulative CO2 without
international transport MtCO2 861,262
dataset/world 99.17%
International transport MtCO2 27,658
Global world CO2 emissions including
international transport MtCO2 888,920
Table 3 - GDP dataset [3] [M$GDP/y]
1990 2020
countries 192 192
dataset countries GDP M$GDP/y 50,994,261 125,514,935
world GDP M$GDP/y 51,241,011 126,318,951
dataset/world M$GDP/y 99.52% 99.36%
Table 4 - Dataset and the world
Dataset World Dataset/World
Dataset countries 192
Cumulative CO2 1990-2020 tCO2 854,134 861,262 99.17%
Cumulative GDP 1990-2020 M$GDP 2,564,126,249 2,578,715,163 99.43%
CCp$$ tCO2/$GDP 0.00033311 0.00033399 99.74%
Cumulative CO2 Emissions per Cumulative GDP - Joseph Nowarski
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Correlation between Cumulative CO2 Emissions and Global Warming
The correlation between cumulative CO2 emissions and global warming was
analyzed in the publication “Global Warming and Cumulative CO2” [4].
Formula 1 - Correlation between Cumulative CO2 Emissions and Global Warming
[4] [°C/GtCO2]
CO2GW = 0.000745°C/GtCO2
Formula for Cumulative CO2 Emissions per Cumulative GDP
Formula 2 - Cumulative CO2 emissions per cumulative GDP
yn
yi
yn
yi
ii GDPCOCCp
1 1
2$$
CCp$$ Cumulative CO2 emissions per cumulative GDP, tCO2/$GDP
i year between y1 and yn
y1 start year = 1991
yn end year = 2020
CO2i CO2 emissions in year i according to publication [1] [2], tCO2/y
GDPi Gross Domestic Product, constant international $(2017) according
to publication [3], $GDP/y
Cumulative Global CO2 Emissions
Total global CO2 emissions per year are from 1750 [1] [2]. This is also the first year of
calculations of the cumulative CO2 emissions of the world, which means that for
this parameter the baseline is 1749.
However, international transport CO2 emissions are from 1950 and the first year of
the cumulative CO2 emissions is 1950 [1] [2], which means that for this parameter
the baseline is 1949.
The dataset was converted to the 1875 baseline in the publication [9].
Cumulative CO2 Emissions per Cumulative GDP - Joseph Nowarski
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Table 5 - Global cumulative CO2 emissions and international transport [9] [tCO2
above 1875 baseline]
1990 2020
Global cumulative CO2 emissions including
international transport tCO2 792,689,057,443 1,681,608,597,211
International transport cumulative CO2 emissions tCO2 16,042,804,984 43,700,803,946
Global cumulative CO2 emissions without
international transport tCO2 776,646,252,459 1,637,907,793,265
International transport cumulative CO2 emissions are not related to the specific
country, therefore, the comparison between the countries’ CO2 emissions and the
world is to the global cumulative CO2 emissions without international transport.
World Data
Table 6 - World data 1990-2020 [1] [2] [3] [5] [6]
Cumulative CO2 1990-2020 without international transport MtCO2 861,262
Cumulative GDP 1990-2020 M$GDP 2,578,715,163
Cumulative CO2 per Cumulative GDP (CCp$$W) tCO2/$GDP 0.0003340
The world average cumulative CO2 per cumulative GDP (CCp$$W) in the period
1990-2020 is 0.0003340 tCO2/$GDP.
Cumulative CO2 Emissions per Cumulative GDP - Joseph Nowarski
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Chart 1 - Cumulative CO2 emission per cumulative GDP 1990-2020, world average
(CCp$$) [tCO2 per $GDP]
0.00032
0.00034
0.00036
0.00038
0.00040
0.00042
0.00044
0.00046
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Countries Above and Below the World Average CCp$$
Table 7 - Below and above the world average CCp$$ in 2020 (CCp$$W)
<CCp$$W >CCp$$W
Countries 150 42
to world 78% 22%
Cumulative CO2 1990-2020 MtCO2 298,338 555,796
to world 35% 65%
Cumulative GDP 1990-2020 M$GDP 1,403,919,567 1,160,206,681
to world 54% 45%
Group average CCp$$ tCO2/$GDP 0.0002125 0.0004790
to world 64% 143%
42 countries above CCp$$W produced less GDP than 150 below CCp$$W, having
more than twice CCp$$.
Cumulative CO2 Emissions per Cumulative GDP - Joseph Nowarski
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Cumulative CO2 Emissions above the CCp$$W
Table 8 - Cumulative CO2 emissions above the CCp$$W
Countries above CCp$$W 42
Group cumulative GDP 1990-2020 M$GDP 1,160,206,681
Cumulative CO2 according to CCp$$W MtCO2 387,496
Actual cumulative CO2 emissions MtCO2 555,796
ΔCO2 emissions above CCp$$W MtCO2 168,300
CO2GW [4] °C/GtCO2 0.000745443
Global Warming caused by ΔCO2 °C 0.125
Cumulative CO2 Emissions per Cumulative GDP 1990-2020
Chart 2 - Cumulative CO2 emission per cumulative GDP (CCp$$) [part 1/4]: 42
countries with CCp$$ above the world average [tCO2 per $GDP]
0.000343
0.000346
0.000349
0.000354
0.000358
0.000359
0.000369
0.000379
0.000379
0.000387
0.000392
0.000402
0.000405
0.000412
0.000421
0.000426
0.000427
0.000434
0.000448
0.000458
0.000490
0.000500
0.000502
0.000503
0.000505
0.000508
0.000511
0.000521
0.000549
0.000552
0.000635
0.000666
0.000689
0.000786
0.000791
0.000911
0.001006
0.001067
0.001121
0.001225
0.001225
0.001290
0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001
Malaysia
Jamaica
Oman
Slovakia
South Korea
USA
Kyrgyzstan
Saudi Arabia
Cuba
Czechia
North Macedonia
Canada
Libya
Zimbabwe
Australia
Bulgaria
Poland
Azerbaijan
Aruba
Kuwait
Bosnia Herzegovina
Bahrain
Lesotho
Iraq
Belarus
Iran
Qatar
Serbia
Russia
Estonia
Ukraine
China
South Africa
Palau
Kazakhstan
Uzbekistan
Nauru
Mongolia
Trinidad and Tobago
Turkmenistan
Curacao
North Korea
The green range is the world average CCp$$W = 0.0003340 tCO2/$GDP
Cumulative CO2 Emissions per Cumulative GDP - Joseph Nowarski
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Chart 3 - Cumulative CO2 emission per cumulative GDP (CCp$$) [part 2/4 [tCO2
per $GDP]
0.0002045
0.0002049
0.0002053
0.0002057
0.0002070
0.0002076
0.0002102
0.0002135
0.0002136
0.0002140
0.0002143
0.0002198
0.0002201
0.0002207
0.0002223
0.0002228
0.0002229
0.0002268
0.0002299
0.0002313
0.0002313
0.0002360
0.0002388
0.0002398
0.0002410
0.0002410
0.0002425
0.0002462
0.0002468
0.0002501
0.0002515
0.0002550
0.0002562
0.0002568
0.0002571
0.0002571
0.0002596
0.0002598
0.0002613
0.0002697
0.0002703
0.0002851
0.0002911
0.0002952
0.0002999
0.0003040
0.0003051
0.0003082
0.0003103
0.0003227
0.0003238
0.00000 0.00005 0.00010 0.00015 0.00020 0.00025 0.00030 0.00035 0.00040
Seychelles
Montenegro
Turkey
Latvia
UK
Tonga
Ecuador
Indonesia
Laos
Netherlands
Croatia
Georgia
Solomon Islands
Iceland
New Zealand
Lithuania
Mexico
Vietnam
Bolivia
Egypt
Germany
Belize
Kiribati
Antigua Barbuda
Belgium
Tunisia
Hungary
Tajikistan
Tuvalu
Lebanon
Morocco
Thailand
Israel
Romania
Japan
Finland
Guyana
Slovenia
Suriname
Cyprus
Brunei
Greece
Jordan
Barbados
Taiwan
Equatorial Guinea
United Arab Emirates
Marshall Islands
Moldova
Algeria
India
Cumulative CO2 Emissions per Cumulative GDP - Joseph Nowarski
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Chart 4 - Cumulative CO2 emission per cumulative GDP (CCp$$) [part 3/4 [tCO2
per $GDP]
0.0001384
0.0001395
0.0001402
0.0001438
0.0001456
0.0001462
0.0001471
0.0001490
0.0001509
0.0001512
0.0001518
0.0001525
0.0001529
0.0001538
0.0001569
0.0001572
0.0001578
0.0001586
0.0001588
0.0001637
0.0001640
0.0001646
0.0001651
0.0001657
0.0001698
0.0001699
0.0001705
0.0001722
0.0001739
0.0001747
0.0001749
0.0001753
0.0001772
0.0001775
0.0001805
0.0001811
0.0001854
0.0001858
0.0001867
0.0001878
0.0001878
0.0001909
0.0001913
0.0001916
0.0001974
0.0001977
0.0001985
0.0002004
0.0002017
0.0002036
0.00000 0.00005 0.00010 0.00015 0.00020 0.00025 0.00030 0.00035 0.00040
Bhutan
Angola
Nigeria
Cambodia
Colombia
Eswatini
France
Benin
Maldives
Peru
Albania
Singapore
Norway
Mozambique
Vanuatu
Sao Tome and Principe
Cape Verde
Brazil
Djibouti
Philippines
Togo
Nicaragua
Saint Vincent Grenadines
Grenada
Bahamas
Yemen
Austria
Turks Caicos Islands
Dominica
Saint Lucia
Samoa
Ireland
Italy
Mauritius
Dominican Republic
Portugal
Saint Kitts Nevis
Senegal
Spain
Denmark
Papua New Guinea
Malta
Honduras
Botswana
Argentina
Pakistan
Gabon
Armenia
Luxembourg
Chile
Cumulative CO2 Emissions per Cumulative GDP - Joseph Nowarski
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Chart 5 - Cumulative CO2 emission per cumulative GDP (CCp$$) [part 4/4 [tCO2
per $GDP]
0.0000317
0.0000372
0.0000456
0.0000462
0.0000479
0.0000492
0.0000500
0.0000525
0.0000613
0.0000671
0.0000682
0.0000692
0.0000696
0.0000709
0.0000723
0.0000731
0.0000772
0.0000782
0.0000783
0.0000788
0.0000788
0.0000791
0.0000816
0.0000819
0.0000859
0.0000894
0.0000949
0.0000966
0.0000981
0.0000996
0.0001018
0.0001029
0.0001041
0.0001058
0.0001080
0.0001080
0.0001084
0.0001093
0.0001098
0.0001111
0.0001126
0.0001162
0.0001193
0.0001218
0.0001257
0.0001261
0.0001262
0.0001274
0.0001353
0.00000 0.00005 0.00010 0.00015 0.00020 0.00025 0.00030 0.00035 0.00040
Macao
Congo Democratic
Burundi
Chad
Somalia
Central African
Rwanda
Uganda
Malawi
Haiti
Mali
Ethiopia
Niger
Sierr a Leone
Madagascar
Sudan
Kenya
Tanzania
Sri Lanka
Nepal
Comoros
Burkina Faso
Paraguay
Cameroon
Guinea-Bissau
Switzer land
Cote d'Ivoire
Zambia
Costa Rica
Bangladesh
Gambia
Namibia
Congo
Uruguay
Micronesia (country)
Panama
Guinea
Palestinian Authority
Ghana
Bermuda
Afghanistan
Fiji
Mauritania
Guatemala
Myanmar
Liberia
Hong Kong
Sweden
El Salvador
Cumulative CO2 Emissions per Cumulative GDP - Joseph Nowarski
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References
1. Hannah Ritchie, Max Roser, Edouard Mathieu, Bobbie Macdonald and
Pablo Rosado - Data on CO₂ and Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Our World
in Data
https://github.com/owid/co2-data#data-on-co2-and-greenhouse-gas-
emissions-by-our-world-in-data
2. Our World in Data, Cumulative CO₂ emissions, 2020
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-co-emissions
3. GDP, PPP (constant 2017 international $) - World Bank, International
Comparison Program, World Bank | World Development Indicators
database, World Bank | Eurostat-OECD PPP Programme
4. Global Warming and Cumulative CO2 - Joseph Nowarski, DOI:
10.5281/zenodo.6619550
5. Cumulative CO2 Emissions of International Transport – Joseph Nowarski,
DOI:10.5281/zenodo.7114110
6. Dataset Cumulative CO2 Emissions of International Transport – Joseph
Nowarski, DOI:10.5281/zenodo.7114087
* * *