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CO2 Emission per GDP Forecast 2020-2100

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This work includes Business As Usual (BAU) forecast of the world’s global CO2 emissions per GDP (Cp$) in the period 2020-2100. The CO2 emissions BAU forecast is from the publication “Dataset Global Warming Forecast using Acceleration Factors” [3]. According to this publication, the CO2 emissions without international transport will change from 33,803 MtCO2/y in 2020 to 70,191 MtCO2/y in 2100, a 108% increase. The GDP forecast applies a parabolic trendline of the last 30 years. According to this calculation, the world GDP will change from 126.3 MM$/y in 2020 to 728.1 MM$/y in 2100, a 476% increase. CO2 emissions per GDP (Cp$) are calculated by dividing the CO2 emissions per year by the GDP in the same year. According to the forecast, the world 0.000268 tCO2/$GDP Cp$ in 2020 will decrease by 64% in 2100 to 0.000096 tCO2/$GDP.
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CO2 Emission per GDP Forecast 2020-2100
Joseph Nowarski, M.Sc., ME – Energy Conservation Expert
Version 1.1.1, 30 November 2022
DOI:10.5281/zenodo.7264413
all versions DOI:10.5281/zenodo.7264412
Abstract
This work includes Business As Usual (BAU) forecast of the world’s global CO2
emissions per GDP (Cp$) in the period 2020-2100.
The CO2 emissions BAU forecast is from the publication “Dataset Global Warming
Forecast using Acceleration Factors” [3]. According to this publication, the CO2
emissions without international transport will change from 33,803 MtCO2/y in 2020
to 70,191 MtCO2/y in 2100, a 108% increase.
The GDP forecast applies a parabolic trendline of the last 30 years. According to
this calculation, the world GDP will change from 126.3 MM$/y in 2020 to 728.1
MM$/y in 2100, a 476% increase.
CO2 emissions per GDP (Cp$) are calculated by dividing the CO2 emissions per
year by the GDP in the same year.
According to the forecast, the world 0.000268 tCO2/$GDP Cp$ in 2020 will
decrease by 64% in 2100 to 0.000096 tCO2/$GDP.
Keywords: Climate Change, Global Warming, CO2 emissions, CO2 emissions forecast, CO2 emissions per GDP
CO2 Emission per GDP Forecast 2020-2100 - Joseph Nowarski
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Glossary
$$GDP $GDP of cumulative GDP in a period
$GDP constant international $(2017) of Gross Domestic Product
$GDP/y,cap $GDP per year per capita
Ave average
BAU Business As Usual
CCO2 cumulative emissions of CO2 in a period
CCO2/$$GDP cumulative emissions of CO2 in a period per cumulative GDP in
the same period
CCp$$ cumulative emissions of CO2 in a period per cumulative GDP in
the same period, CCO2/$$GDP
CO2 emissions of Carbon Dioxide, CO2
Cp$ CO2 emissions per GDP, tCO2/y,$ (ton CO2 per year, per
$2017)
GDP Gross Domestic Product, constant international $(2017)
Global Warming global surface temperature above the 1850-1900 baseline,
land+ocean, °C
MM$ 1012 $, 10^12 $, 1,000,000,000,000 $
MtCO2/y Mega-ton CO2 per year, 106 ton, 10^6 ton, 1,000,000 ton CO2
per year
OWID Our World in Data – Internet site [1] [2]
Ref reference
tCCO2 ton of cumulative CO2 in period
tCCO2/$$GDP ton of cumulative CO2 in period per cumulative $GDP of GDP
in the same period
tCO2 ton CO2
tCO2/$GDP ton CO2 per $GDP
CO2 Emission per GDP Forecast 2020-2100 - Joseph Nowarski
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Sources of Data
CO2 emissions and population datasets are from OWID [1] [2] “CO2 emissions
produced from fossil fuels and cement production only – land use change is not
included”.
World and international transport cumulative CO2 emissions above the 1875
baseline are from the publications [4] [5] [6] based on [1] [2].
GDP dataset is from World Bank (WB) [3] “GDP, PPP (constant 2017 international
$)”.
Part of the missing GDP data for 1990+ in the World Bank dataset [3] was
calculated using OWID [1] [2] and conversion factors between the datasets for
each year based on conversion factors between the datasets for the USA.
Dataset
Table 1 - Dataset [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6]
CO2 Population GDP
emissions
Source of data OWID OWID World Bank
Reference [1] [2] [1] [2] [8]
From year 1750 1800 1990
To year 2020 2020 2020
CO2 from fossil fuels Yes
CO2 from cement production Yes
CO2 from other sources No
Other GHG No
Land use change No
Units MtCO2/y Constant International $ 2017
Resolution 1 tCO2/y 1 Resident 1 Constant International $ 2017
The publication “Dataset Global Warming Forecast using Acceleration Factors” [6]
includes Global Warming and CO2 emissions time series for 2020-2100.
CO2 Emission per GDP Forecast 2020-2100 - Joseph Nowarski
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Business As Usual Scenario
All calculations and estimations in this work are for the Business As Usual (BAU)
scenario, the effectiveness of the future CO2 emissions mitigation will be as in the
past.
CO2 Emissions
Chart 1 - Global CO2 emissions per year without international transport 1990-2020
[tCO2/y] [1] [2]
20,000,000,000
22,000,000,000
24,000,000,000
26,000,000,000
28,000,000,000
30,000,000,000
32,000,000,000
34,000,000,000
36,000,000,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
CO2 Emission per GDP Forecast 2020-2100 - Joseph Nowarski
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Chart 2 - CO2 emissions per year without international transport BAU forecast 2020-
2100 [MtCO2/y] [6]
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
2090
2095
2100
The dataset of CO2 emissions forecast for 2020-2100 is available in the publication
[6].
CO2 Emission per GDP Forecast 2020-2100 - Joseph Nowarski
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World Population Forecast
The population forecast for the period 2020-2100 is based on the Excel chart
parabolic trendline formula of the actual world population in the period 1990-2020
[1] [2].
Chart 3 - World population parabolic trendlines formula 1990-2020 [1] [2]
y = 97038.960947752000x
2
+ 78816017.124269500000x + 5261771158.068770000000
5,000,000,000
5,500,000,000
6,000,000,000
6,500,000,000
7,000,000,000
7,500,000,000
8,000,000,000
8,500,000,000
9,000,000,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Table 2 - World population parabolic trendlines formula 1990-2020 [1] [2]
y = 97038.960947752000x2 + 78816017.124269500000x + 5261771158.068770000000
a 97039.0
b 78816017.1
c 5261771158.1
start 1989
Table 3 - World population forecast
World population 1990 5,327,529,078
World population 2020 7,794,798,725
Parabolic trendline chart formula:
y = 97038.960947752x2 + 78816017.1242695x + 5261771158.06877
World population 2020 according to the formula 7,798,322,130
Δ to actual 0.045%
World population 2100 15,205,966,097
CO2 Emission per GDP Forecast 2020-2100 - Joseph Nowarski
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Chart 4 - World population forecast 2020-2100
7,000,000,000
8,000,000,000
9,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
11,000,000,000
12,000,000,000
13,000,000,000
14,000,000,000
15,000,000,000
16,000,000,000
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
2090
2095
2100
The dataset of population forecast for 2020-2100 is available in the publication [7].
CO2 Emission per GDP Forecast 2020-2100 - Joseph Nowarski
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GDP Forecast
The world GDP forecast for the period 2020-2100 is based on the Excel chart
parabolic trendline formula of actual world GDP in the period 1990-2020 [3].
Chart 5 - World GDP parabolic trendlines formula 1990-2020 [3]
y = 42206450113.783200000000x
2
+ 1446788661576.160000000000x + 47507310117185.000000000000
40,000,000,000,000
50,000,000,000,000
60,000,000,000,000
70,000,000,000,000
80,000,000,000,000
90,000,000,000,000
100,000,000,000,000
110,000,000,000,000
120,000,000,000,000
130,000,000,000,000
140,000,000,000,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Table 4 - World GDP parabolic trendlines formula 1990-2020 [3]
y = 42206450113.7832x2 + 1446788661576.16x + 47507310117185
a 42206450113.8
b 1446788661576.2
c 47507310117185.0
start 1989
Table 5 - World GDP forecast
World GDP 1990 51,241,010,872,505 $GDP
World GDP 2020 126,318,951,010,345 $GDP
Parabolic trendline chart formula:
y = 42206450113.7832x2 + 1446788661576.16x + 47507310117185
World GDP 2020 according to the formula 132,918,157,185,392 $GDP
Δ to actual 5.2%
World GDP 2100 728,126,523,404,062 $GDP
CO2 Emission per GDP Forecast 2020-2100 - Joseph Nowarski
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Chart 6 - World GDP/y forecast 2020-2100
0
100,000,000,000,000
200,000,000,000,000
300,000,000,000,000
400,000,000,000,000
500,000,000,000,000
600,000,000,000,000
700,000,000,000,000
800,000,000,000,000
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
2090
2095
2100
The dataset of the world GDP forecast for 2020-2100 is available in the publication
[7].
GDP per Capita
GDP per Capita is calculated by dividing the GDP per year by the population in
the same year.
Table 6 - GDP per capita forecast
1990 2020 2100
GDP $GDP/y 51,241,010,872,505 126,318,951,010,345 728,126,523,404,062
World population 5,327,529,078 7,794,798,725 15,205,966,097
CO2 emissions per capita $GDP/y,cap 9,618 16,206 47,884
CO2 Emission per GDP Forecast 2020-2100 - Joseph Nowarski
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Chart 7 - GDP per capita 1990-2020 [$GDP/y,cap]
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
17,000
18,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Chart 8 - GDP per capita 2020-2100 [$GDP/y,cap]
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
2090
2095
2100
The dataset of the world GDP per Capita forecast for 2020-2100 is available in the
publication [7].
CO2 Emission per GDP Forecast 2020-2100 - Joseph Nowarski
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CO2 Emissions per GDP forecast
CO2 Emissions per GDP are calculated by dividing the CO2 emissions without
international transport per year, by GDP in the same year.
Table 7 - CO2 emissions per GDP forecast
1990 2020 2100
CO2 emissions per year without
international transport tCO2/y 22,191,664,636 33,803,026,586 70,191,421,088
World GDP $GDP/y 51,241,010,872,505 126,318,951,010,345 728,126,523,404,062
CO2 emissions per GDP tCO2/$GDP 0.000433 0.000268 0.000096
Chart 9 - CO2 emissions per GDP 1990-2020 [tCO2/$GDP]
0.00025
0.00027
0.00029
0.00031
0.00033
0.00035
0.00037
0.00039
0.00041
0.00043
0.00045
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Chart 10 - CO2 emissions per GDP 2020-2100 [tCO2/$GDP]
0.00005
0.00010
0.00015
0.00020
0.00025
0.00030
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
2090
2095
2100
CO2 Emission per GDP Forecast 2020-2100 - Joseph Nowarski
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The dataset of CO2 emissions per GDP forecast for 2020-2100 is available in the
publication [7].
Cumulative CO2 Emissions per Cumulative GDP forecast
Cumulative CO2 Emissions per Cumulative GDP are calculated by dividing the
cumulative CO2 emissions without international transport per year, by the
cumulative GDP in the same period.
Table 8 - Cumulative CO2 emissions per cumulative GDP
1990-2020 2020-2100 1990-2100
Cumulative CO2 emissions
without international transport tCCO2 883,453,205,442 4,092,620,478,853 4,976,073,684,295
Cumulative GDP $$GDP 2,629,956,174,159,650 31,549,705,714,587,700 34,179,661,888,747,400
Cumulative CO2 per cumulative
GDP tCCO2/$$GDP 0.000336 0.000130 0.000146
Chart 11 - Cumulative CO2 emissions per cumulative GDP 1990-2020
[tCCO2/$$GDP] BL1989
0.00033
0.00035
0.00037
0.00039
0.00041
0.00043
0.00045
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
CO2 Emission per GDP Forecast 2020-2100 - Joseph Nowarski
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Chart 12 - Cumulative CO2 emissions per cumulative GDP 2020-2100
[tCCO2/$$GDP] BL2019
0.00010
0.00012
0.00014
0.00016
0.00018
0.00020
0.00022
0.00024
0.00026
0.00028
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
2090
2095
2100
Chart 13 - Cumulative CO2 emissions per cumulative GDP 1990-2100
[tCCO2/$$GDP] BL1989
0.00010
0.00015
0.00020
0.00025
0.00030
0.00035
0.00040
0.00045
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
2090
2095
2100
The dataset of the cumulative CO2 emissions per cumulative GDP (tCCO2/$$GDP)
forecast for 2020-2100 is available in the publication [7].
CO2 Emission per GDP Forecast 2020-2100 - Joseph Nowarski
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References
1. Hannah Ritchie, Max Roser, Edouard Mathieu, Bobbie Macdonald and
Pablo Rosado - Data on CO2 and Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Our World
in Data
https://github.com/owid/co2-data#data-on-co2-and-greenhouse-gas-
emissions-by-our-world-in-data
2. Our World in Data, Cumulative CO2 emissions, 2020
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-co-emissions
3. GDP, PPP (constant 2017 international $) - World Bank, International
Comparison Program, World Bank | World Development Indicators
database, World Bank | Eurostat-OECD PPP Programme
4. Cumulative CO2 Emissions of International Transport – Joseph Nowarski,
DOI:10.5281/zenodo.7114110
5. Dataset Cumulative CO2 Emissions of International Transport – Joseph
Nowarski, DOI:10.5281/zenodo.7114087
6. Dataset Global Warming Forecast using Acceleration Factors - Joseph
Nowarski, DOI:10.5281/zenodo.7151890
7. Dataset CO2 Emission per GDP Forecast 2020-2100 – Joseph Nowarski,
DOI:10.5281/zenodo.7264415
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