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CO2 Emission per Capita Forecast 2020-2100

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This work includes Business As Usual (BAU) forecast of the world's global CO2 emissions per capita (CpC) in the period 2020-2100. The CO2 emission forecast is from the publication "Dataset Global Warming Forecast using Acceleration Factors" [3]. According to this publication, the CO2 emissions without international transport will change from 33,803 MtCO2/y in 2020 to 70,191 MtCO2/y in 2100, a 108% increase. The population forecast applies a parabolic trendline of the last 30 years. According to this calculation, the world population will change from 7,795 million in 2020 to 15,206 million in 2100, a 95% increase. CO2 emissions per capita (CpC) are calculated by dividing the CO2 emissions per year by the population in the same year. The world CpC was 4.3366 tCO2/y,cap in 2020. The BAU CpC forecast for 2100 is 4.6160 tCO2/y,cap, 6.4% increase.
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CO2 Emission per Capita Forecast 2020-2100
Joseph Nowarski, M.Sc., ME – Energy Conservation Expert
Version 1.1.1, 30 October 2022
DOI:10.5281/zenodo.7264407
all versions DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.7264406
Abstract
This work includes Business As Usual (BAU) forecast of the world’s global CO2
emissions per capita (CpC) in the period 2020-2100.
The CO2 emission forecast is from the publication “Dataset Global Warming
Forecast using Acceleration Factors” [3]. According to this publication, the CO2
emissions without international transport will change from 33,803 MtCO2/y in 2020
to 70,191 MtCO2/y in 2100, a 108% increase.
The population forecast applies a parabolic trendline of the last 30 years.
According to this calculation, the world population will change from 7,795 million
in 2020 to 15,206 million in 2100, a 95% increase.
CO2 emissions per capita (CpC) are calculated by dividing the CO2 emissions per
year by the population in the same year.
The world CpC was 4.3366 tCO2/y,cap in 2020. The BAU CpC forecast for 2100 is
4.6160 tCO2/y,cap, 6.4% increase.
Keywords: Climate Change, Global Warming, CO2 emissions, CO2 emissions per capita, CO2 per capita, CO2
per capita forecast
CO2 Emission per Capita Forecast 2020-2100 - Joseph Nowarski
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Glossary
Ave average
BAU Business As Usual
CO2 emissions of Carbon Dioxide, CO2
CpC CO2 emissions per capita, tCO2/y,cap (ton CO2 per year, per
population)
Global Warming global surface temperature above the 1850-1900 baseline,
land+ocean, °C
MtCO2/y Mega-ton CO2 per year, 106 ton, 10^6 ton, 1,000,000 ton CO2
per per
OWID Our World in Data – Internet site [1] [2]
Ref reference
tCO2 ton CO2
Dataset
Table 1 - CO2 emissions and population dataset [1] [2]
CO2 Population
emissions
Source of data OWID OWID
Reference [1] [2] [1] [2]
From year 1750 1800
To year 2020 2020
CO2 from fossil fuels Yes
CO2 from cement production Yes
CO2 from other sources No
Other GHG No
Land use change No
Units MtCO2/y
Resolution 1 tCO2/y 1 Resident
The datasets are from the publication [1] [2], CO2 emissions produced from fossil
fuels and cement production only – land use change is not included.
CO2 Emission per Capita Forecast 2020-2100 - Joseph Nowarski
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The publication “Dataset Global Warming Forecast using Acceleration Factors” [3]
includes Global Warming and CO2 emissions time series 2020-2100.
Business As Usual Scenario
All calculations and estimations in this work are for the Business As Usual (BAU)
scenario, the effectiveness of the future CO2 emissions mitigation will be as in the
past.
CO2 Emission per Capita Forecast 2020-2100 - Joseph Nowarski
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CO2 Emissions
Chart 1 - Global CO2 emissions per year without international transport 1990-
2020 [tCO2/y] [1] [2]
20,000,000,000
22,000,000,000
24,000,000,000
26,000,000,000
28,000,000,000
30,000,000,000
32,000,000,000
34,000,000,000
36,000,000,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Chart 2 - CO2 emissions per year without international transport BAU forecast
2020-2100 [MtCO2/y] [3]
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
2090
2095
2100
The dataset of CO2 emissions forecast for 2020-2100 is available in the publication
[3].
CO2 Emission per Capita Forecast 2020-2100 - Joseph Nowarski
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World Population Forecast
The population forecast for the period 2020-2100 is based on the Excel chart
parabolic trendline formula of the actual world population in the period 1990-2020
[1] [2].
Chart 3 - World population parabolic trendline formula 1990-2020 [1] [2]
y = 97038.960947752000x
2
+ 78816017.124269500000x + 5261771158.068770000000
5,000,000,000
5,500,000,000
6,000,000,000
6,500,000,000
7,000,000,000
7,500,000,000
8,000,000,000
8,500,000,000
9,000,000,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Table 2 - World population parabolic trendlines formula 1990-2020 [1] [2]
y = 97038.960947752000x2 + 78816017.124269500000x + 5261771158.068770000000
a 97039.0
b 78816017.1
c 5261771158.1
start 1989
Table 3 - World population forecast
World population 1990 5,327,529,078
World population 2020 7,794,798,725
Parabolic trendline chart formula:
y = 97038.960947752x2 + 78816017.1242695x + 5261771158.06877
World population 2020 according to the formula 7,798,322,130
Δ to actual 0.045%
World population 2100 15,205,966,097
CO2 Emission per Capita Forecast 2020-2100 - Joseph Nowarski
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Chart 4 - World population forecast 2020-2100
7,000,000,000
8,000,000,000
9,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
11,000,000,000
12,000,000,000
13,000,000,000
14,000,000,000
15,000,000,000
16,000,000,000
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
2090
2095
2100
The dataset of population forecast for 2020-2100 is available in the publication [4].
CO2 Emissions per Capita
CO2 Emissions per Capita are calculated by dividing the CO2 emissions per year
by the population in the same year.
Table 4 - CO2 emissions per capita forecast
1990 2020 2100 2100/2020
CO2 emissions per year without
international transport tCO2/y 22,191,664,636 33,803,026,586 70,191,421,088 107.6%
World population 5,327,529,078 7,794,798,725 15,205,966,097 95.1%
CO2 emissions per capita tCO2/y,cap 4.1655 4.3366 4.6160 6.4%
CO2 Emission per Capita Forecast 2020-2100 - Joseph Nowarski
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Chart 5 - CO2 emissions per capita 1990-2020 [tCO2/y,cap]
3.8
3.9
4.0
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.7
4.8
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Chart 6 - CO2 emissions per capita 2020-2100 [tCO2/y,cap]
4.0
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.7
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
2090
2095
2100
The dataset of CO2 emissions per capita forecast for 2020-2100 is available in the
publication [4].
CO2 Emission per Capita Forecast 2020-2100 - Joseph Nowarski
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References
1. Hannah Ritchie, Max Roser, Edouard Mathieu, Bobbie Macdonald and
Pablo Rosado - Data on CO and Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Our World
in Data
https://github.com/owid/co2-data#data-on-co2-and-greenhouse-gas-
emissions-by-our-world-in-data
2. Our World in Data, Cumulative CO2 emissions, 2020
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-co-emissions
3. Dataset Global Warming Forecast using Acceleration Factors - Joseph
Nowarski, DOI:10.5281/zenodo.7151890
4. Dataset CO2 Emission per Capita Forecast 2020-2100 – Joseph Nowarski,
DOI:10.5281/zenodo.7264409
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