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A System Dynamics Model for Developing an
Agropolitan Area based on Laying Hens in Lima
Puluh Kota Regency
To cite this article: Dwi Yuzaria et al 2022 IOP Conf. Ser.: Earth Environ. Sci. 1097 012035
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1st Lekantara Annual Conference on Natural Science and Environment (LeNS 2021)
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1097 (2022) 012035
IOP Publishing
doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1097/1/012035
1
A System Dynamics Model for Developing an Agropolitan Area based
on Laying Hens in Lima Puluh Kota Regency
Dwi Yuzaria*, Nuraini, Elfi Rahmi, and Muhammad Ikhsan Rias
Universitas Andalas, Padang, Indonesia
*dyuzaria@ansci.unand.ac.id
Abstract. The development of an agropolitan area based on laying hens in Lima
Puluh Kota Regency faces many problems. One method that can be used to solve
these complex problems is the systems approach. This study aimed to build a
model for developing a sustainable agropolitan area based on integrated laying
hens farming. The results of the system performance indicated that the current
system is in a fairly sustainable position. The dynamics of time will make
changes in system performance in the future. There are six factors that influence
the interdependent system, namely carrying capacity, egg prices, farmer income,
employment, infrastructure, and utilization of livestock waste. Based on the state
of each factor, three scenarios were formulated for the development of a
sustainable laying hens farming system in Lima Puluh Kota Regency: (1)
conservative-pessimistic scenario, (2) moderate-optimistic scenario, and (3)
progressive-optimistic scenario.
Keywords: dynamic system; agropolitan; key factor; scenario; simulation.
1. Introduction
Not only does it cause a backwash effect, the failure of development in rural areas also results
in capital and market control. If the agricultural sector with agribusiness can act as a leading
sector in the economy, then every agribusiness will have forward and backward linkages [1].
To narrow the gap between village and city governments, regional development policies have
been implemented through an agropolitan concept based on regional potential. Covering
physical, social, economic, and developmental bases, the program involved establishes centers
of rural growth areas which are called agricultural centers [2]. Lima Puluh Kota Regency, West
Sumatra, has implemented an agropolitan policy based on the Lima Puluh Kota Regency
Government Decree No. 398/BLK/2005 dated June 6, 2005, which stipulates that Payakumbuh,
Mungka, and Guguak Districts are agropolitan areas for laying hens agribusiness. At the
1st Lekantara Annual Conference on Natural Science and Environment (LeNS 2021)
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1097 (2022) 012035
IOP Publishing
doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1097/1/012035
2
beginning of its implementation, laying hens provided a good economic improvement for
farmers. However, in recent years, level of egg production and number of farmers have
decreased. In this case, the farmers even went bankrupt and closed their businesses. Many
factors were responsible for the decrease in production in relation to the implementation of
agropolitan policies. This condition needs to be assessed as a consideration to develop a more
comprehensive agropolitan area model so that it can contribute significantly to food security,
especially when it comes down to chicken eggs availability in the Central Sumatra region.
2. Methodology
This study used secondary data in the form of time series data for the period 2016 to
2020. The data were obtained from the Ministry of Agriculture, Statistics Indonesia (BPS), and
other sources that supported this research. In data processing, the researcher used a system
dynamics approach, which consisted of the following stages of analysis [3]:
1) A System Dynamics Model of Chicken Egg Production in Lima Puluh Kota Regency
Model Development was carried out according to the stages of the dynamics model
approach. System dynamics models can help in understanding the structure and behavior of
a system with non-linear links and feedback [4]. A needs analysis was carried out to find out
the needs of system actors. Each system actor had different needs but interacted with each
other and affected the entire existing system [5].
2) Model Formulation was performed according to past historical data and information.
3) Model Validation was carried out by comparing the behavior of the model to the real system
through a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) test. The MAPE formula is as follows:
ܯܣܲܧ ൌ ଵ
|ି|
ൈ100%, where Xm is the simulation result data, Xd is the actual data,
and n is the period/number of data. The criteria for the accuracy of the model using the
MAPE test [6] were as follows: MAPE < 5%: very precise; 5% < MAPE < 10%: precise;
MAPE > 10%: not precise.
3. Results and Discussion
1) Dynamics of Chicken Egg Production in Lima Puluh Kota Regency
Layer chickens are laying hens that are ready to produce with a production period of 55
weeks. The layer chicken population in Lima Puluh Kota Regency in the period 2016 to 2020
showed an increasing trend.
Figure 1. Dynamics of Availability of Chicken Eggs in Lima Puluh Kota Regency for the
2016–2020 Period
-
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Dynamics of chicken egg availability
……… egg production(kg) -- egg consumpsion excess eggs (kg)
1st Lekantara Annual Conference on Natural Science and Environment (LeNS 2021)
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1097 (2022) 012035
IOP Publishing
doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1097/1/012035
3
2) Description of the Chicken Egg Production System in Lima Puluh Kota Regency
A system analysis involves identifying the components of a system, building a mental model
of how they relate to one another, and presenting it as a causal loop diagram (CLD) [7]. Based
on the literature review, several system actors that played a role in the production of layer
chicken eggs can be identified. Table 1 presents the needs of each system actor.
Table 1. Identified System Actors and Their Needs
Actors Needs
Breeder Production and business profits increase
Government Eggs and chicken meat sufficient availability to meet the
communit
y
's needs
Poultry industry Continuity of egg production and big profit margin
Societ
y
Fulfilment of the needs for e
gg
s and chicken meat
The system performers and their needs have been adapted to the research limitations. The input-
output diagram of this system can be seen in Figure 2.
3) System Conceptualization
The problem of egg production in Lima Puluh Kota Regency is a complex problem involving
various interacting and integrated variable components. Egg production is illustrated in the
cause-and-effect diagram in Figure 3.
Figure 2. Input-Output Diagram of the System Dynamics in the Chicken Egg Production in
Lima Puluh Kota Regency
Uncontrollable input
xPrice of day old chicks, feed,
vaccine, and poultry medicine
xPrice of eggs and chickens
that no longer lay eggs
xLivestock diseases
xBank interestrate
x
Climatic, weather, agricultural
land, and socio-cultural
conditions
Environmental Input
xAnimal husbandry
regulations
xGovernment policy
Output Desired
xIncrease in livestock business
profits
xIncreased production
xContinuity of egg production
xIncreased utilization of livestock
and agricultural waste
Controllable Input
xLivestock management
xEgg Production
xFarm location
xQuality and quantity of
livestock products
xLivestock institutions
Unwanted Output
xFailure to meet the needs with the
eggs and chicken meat available
Model of Egg
Production in Lima Puluh
Kota Regency
FEEDBACK
(layer chicken farming
management)
1st Lekantara Annual Conference on Natural Science and Environment (LeNS 2021)
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1097 (2022) 012035
IOP Publishing
doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1097/1/012035
4
Figure 3. Causal Loop Diagram of the Egg Production Model in Lima Puluh Kota Regency
Egg production was influenced by the layer chicken population size, while the layer chicken
population size depended on the number of breeders and the quality of the environment of the
farm area. The number of farmers was influenced by the amount of profits from farming laying
hens and business incentives from livestock farmer cooperatives. Increasing profits and
attractive business incentives would increase the number of laying hens and indirectly increase
the layer chicken population size and egg production. Business profits depended on the amount
of costs and business revenues, in which case the greater the business costs the smaller the
business profits. The largest cost component came from animal feed, while the largest revenue
component came from egg sales. The system dynamics model developed was limited to matters
related to egg production, which was influenced by layer chicken population and business
profits variables. To facilitate modeling, the egg production system was divided into two main
sub-systems, namely the layer chicken population sub-system and the business profits sub-
system.
4) System Formulation
Model formulation is the process of translating a conceptual model into a quantitative model so
that simulations can be carried out [8]. Model formulation is the formulation of a problem into
a mathematical form that can represent a real system. It relates the variables that have been
identified in the conceptual model. A complete arrow box diagram for the chicken egg
production model in Lima Puluh Kota Regency can be seen in Figure 4.
1st Lekantara Annual Conference on Natural Science and Environment (LeNS 2021)
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1097 (2022) 012035
IOP Publishing
doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1097/1/012035
5
Figure 4. Stock Flow Diagram of the Egg Production Model in Lima Puluh Kota Regency
Some of the assumptions used in the modeling of this research are as follows:
The dynamics of population growth were assumed to be influenced by inflows in the form of
production variables and outflows in the form of depletion variables. The feed consumed by
chickens (feed requirement) was assumed to consist of a mixture of 45% concentrate, 15% rice
bran, and 40% corn. The demand for culling chicken was influenced by the interaction of the
culling and the time variable for changes in demand. Revenue from the egg sales is calculated
based on these assumptions: layer chickens have a productivity level of 7.7 kg/head/week and
the price of eggs is IDR 23,700/kg; total operating costs are the sum of feed costs, other costs,
and operational costs; the profits from laying hens farming is used for credit installment
payments and payments of contributions to poultry cooperatives; the variable adjustment time
for workers is 8 weeks; labor productivity is worth 1,500 heads/person/week where every one
worker is able to take care of 1,500 chickens; the number of breeders is 25% of the total number
of workers; all laying hens breeders are members of a livestock cooperative and donate 5% of
the profits to the cooperative directly; and payment of credit installments is 20% of the business
profits.
5) Scenario and Simulation Results
Dynamic model simulation can explain the processes that occur in the system and predict the
results of various scenarios [9]. The simulation model is more realistic on the real system
because it requires fewer assumptions [10]. Several scenarios were used to analyze the chicken
egg production in Lima Puluh Kota Regency, and the results are as follows:
1. Scenario of No Component Change (Moderate)
In this scenario, the system runs according to the initial formulation or according to the
current conditions. The simulation results show that the growth rate of layer chicken population,
egg production, and demand for rejected chickens grow by 26 percent/year, while the number
of workers grows by 25 percent/year. Business revenues, total operating costs, and business
profits also grow at a rate of 26 percent/year. Business profits grow by 1 percent/breeder every
year.
2. Scenario of Increased Egg Price (Optimistic)
1st Lekantara Annual Conference on Natural Science and Environment (LeNS 2021)
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1097 (2022) 012035
IOP Publishing
doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1097/1/012035
6
The price of eggs is a constant variable whose value is assumed to be constant every
year. This is due to the many factors that affect the price of domestic chicken eggs. The
optimistic scenario in the model assumes that egg prices have increased by 6.88 percent/year
[11]. The increase in egg prices causes a) an increase in farmer income by 1 to 27 percent/year;
b) an increase in farmer profits by 2 to 28 percent/year; c) an increase in profits per farmer by
2 to 3 percent/year; and d) an increase in chicken egg production by 15 percent/year.
3. Scenario of Increased Feed Prices (Pessimistic)
Egg prices and feed prices are two important variables that affect chicken egg
production. In the pessimistic scenario, the price of feed experiences a higher increase of 60
percent/year. The simulation results in the pessimistic scenario showed a) an increase in total
operating costs by 32 percent/year, b) a decrease in operating profits by 22 percent/year to only
4 percent/year, c) a decrease in profits per farmer by 16 percent/year; and d) a decrease in egg
production by 25 percent/year. The results of the simulation of egg production variables under
various scenarios are shown in Figure 5.
Figure 5. Chicken egg production in moderate, optimistic, and pessimistic scenarios
6) Model Validation
Model validation was carried out by comparing the simulation results with the actual data
obtained from the real system. Model validation was carried out on layer chicken population
and egg production variables by comparing the real system data in the 2016–2020 range with
the data from the simulation results. The variable tested was the amount of chicken egg
production. The validation of the model produced a value of 5.09%, meaning that the model
built was categorized as "right" in estimating the amount of chicken egg production in Lima
Puluh Kota Regency in the 2016–2026 time period. The system dynamics model of the chicken
egg production in Lima Puluh Kota Regency that was developed has been able to describe the
condition of chicken egg production. The simulation results showed that until 2026 chicken egg
production will experience growth. Based on these three scenarios, chicken egg production
continues to increase even though the growth rate slows down when there is an increase in feed
prices. In the future, the overall production of chicken eggs in Lima Puluh Kota Regency tends
to increase. In line with this, the profits of laying hens farming will increase. However, an
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
10,000,000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Egg Production (kg/week)
Moderate Scenario Optimistic Scenario Pessimistic Scenario
1st Lekantara Annual Conference on Natural Science and Environment (LeNS 2021)
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1097 (2022) 012035
IOP Publishing
doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1097/1/012035
7
increase in feed prices that is not followed by an increase in egg prices will hinder the rate of
increase in egg production in Lima Puluh Kota Regency.
4. Conclusion
The system dynamics model of the chicken egg production in Lima Puluh Kota Regency that
was developed has been able to describe the condition of chicken egg production in accordance
with the real system. The simulation results showed that until 2026, chicken egg production in
Lima Puluh Kota Regency will experience growth. In the future, the overall egg production in
Lima Puluh Kota Regency tends to increase.
Acknowledgements
The research for this paper was funded by the Institute of Research and Community Service of
Universitas Andalas with Contract No: T/4/UN.16.17/PM.PKM.MNM/2021. I would like to
thank the Chairman of LPPM of Universitas Andalas for the financial support.
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