Content uploaded by Markus B. Siewert
Author content
All content in this area was uploaded by Markus B. Siewert on Nov 04, 2022
Content may be subject to copyright.
Available via license: CC BY-NC-SA 4.0
Content may be subject to copyright.
ANATION-WIDE EXPERIMENT:FUEL TAX CUTS AND ALMOST
FREE PUBLIC TRANSPORT FOR THREE MONTHS IN GERMANY -
REPORT 4 THIRD WAVE RESULTS
Allister Loder
Technical University of Munich
TUM School of Engineering and Design
Chair of Traffic Engineering and Control
Arcisstrasse 21, 80333 Munich
allister.loder@tum.de
Fabienne Cantner
Technical University of Munich
TUM School of Management
TUMCS for Biotechnology & Sustainability
Am Essigberg 3, 94315 Straubing
fabienne.cantner@tum.de
Andrea Cadavid Isaza
Technical University of Munich
TUM School of Engineering and Design
Chair of Renewable and Sustainable Energy Systems
Lichtenbergstraße 4a, 85748 Garching
andrea.cadavid@tum.de
Markus B. Siewert
Munich School of Politics and Public Policy
TUM Think Tank
Richard-Wagner-Straße 1, 80333 München
markus.siewert@hfp.tum.de
Stefan Wurster
Munich School of Politics and Public Policy
Technical University of Munich
TUM School of Social Sciences and Technology
Professorship of Policy Analysis
Richard-Wagner-Straße 1, 80333 München
stefan.wurster@hfp.tum.de
Sebastian Goerg
Technical University of Munich
TUM School of Management
TUMCS for Biotechnology & Sustainability
Am Essigberg 3, 94315 Straubing
sebastian.goerg@tum.de
Klaus Bogenberger
Technical University of Munich
TUM School of Engineering and Design
Chair of Traffic Engineering and Control
Arcisstrasse 21, 80333 Munich
klaus.bogenberger@tum.de
October 20, 2022
ABS TRACT
In spring 2022, the German federal government agreed on a set of measures that aimed at reducing
households’ financial burden resulting from a recent price increase, especially in energy and mobility.
These measures included among others, a nation-wide public transport ticket for 9 EUR per month
and a fuel tax cut that reduced fuel prices by more than 15 %. In transportation policy and travel
behavior research this is an almost unprecedented behavioral experiment. It allows to study not
only behavioral responses in mode choice and induced demand but also to assess the effectiveness
of transport policy instruments. We observe this natural experiment with a three-wave survey and
an app-based travel diary on a sample 2’263 individuals; for the Munich Study, 919 participants in
the survey-and-app group and 425 in the survey-only group have been successfully recruited, while
919 participants have been recruited through a professional panel provider to obtain a representative
arXiv:2210.10538v1 [econ.GN] 19 Oct 2022
APREPRINT - OC TOBER 20, 2022
nation-wide reference group for the three-wave survey. In this fourth report we present the results of
the third wave. At the end of the study, all three surveys have been completed by 1’484 participants
and 642 participants completed all three surveys and used the travel diary throughout the entire
study. Based on our results we conclude that when offering a 49 EUR-Ticket as a successor to the
9 EUR-Ticket and a local travel pass for 30 EUR/month more than 60 % of all 9 EUR-Ticket owners
would buy one of the two new travel passes. In other words, a substantial increase in travel pass
ownership in Germany can be expected, with our modest estimate being around 20 %. With the
announcement of the introduction of a successor ticket in 2023 as well as with the prevailing high
inflation, this study will continue into the year 2023 to monitor the impact on mobility and daily
activities.
1 Introduction
In transportation research, it is quite unlikely to observe or even perform real-world experiments in terms of travel
behavior or traffic flow. There are few notable exceptions: subway strikes suddenly make one important alternative
mode not available anymore [
1
,
2
], a global pandemic changes travelers’ preferences for traveling at all or traveling
collectively with others [
3
], or a bridge collapse forces travelers to alter their daily activities [
4
]. However, in 2022 the
German federal government announced in response to a sharp increase in energy and consumer prices a set of measures
that partially offset the cost increases for households. Among these are a public transport ticket at 9 EUR per month
1
for
traveling all across Germany in public transport, except for long-distance train services (e.g., ICE, TGV, night trains), as
well as a tax cut on gasoline and diesel, resulting in a cost reduction of about 15 % for car drivers
2
. Both measures were
limited to three months, namely June, July and August 2022. As of end of August, more than 52 million tickets have
been sold
3
, while it seems that the fuel tax cut did not reach consumers due to generally increased fuel prices and oil
companies are accused of not forwarding the tax cuts to consumers 4.
For the Munich metropolitan region in Germany, we designed a study under the label "Mobilität.Leben" 5comprising
three elements: (i) a three-wave survey before, during and after the introduction of cost-saving measures; (ii) a
smartphone app based measurement of travel behavior and activities during the same period; (iii) an analysis of
aggregated traffic counts and mobility indicators. We will use data from 2017 as well as 2019 (pre-COVID-19) and data
from shortly before the cost reduction measures for the comparison. In addition, the three-wave survey is presented to a
nation-wide control group, which however does not participate in the app. The main goal of the study is to investigate
the effectiveness of the cost-saving measures with focus on the behavioral impact of the 9 EUR-ticket on mode choice
[
5
], rebound effects [
6
,
7
], and induced demand [
8
]. Further details on the study design and the first results can be found
in our first, second and third report [9, 10, 11].
In this fourth report, we provide an update on the study participation at the end of September, the end of the initial study
period of our study in Section 2. We summarize the first findings from the third wave on travel behavior before, during
and after the period of the 9 EUR-Ticket and fuel tax cut in Section 3, on the willingness-to-pay for a successor ticket in
Section 4, and on the impact of price increases on households energy usage and consumer behavior.
2 Study participation update
For the entire study, 2 268 participants had been successfully recruited [
9
]. The entire sample comprises 1 349
participants for the Munich Study (MS) and 919 participants from the nation-wide reference group (RG). In the Munich
Study, 425 participants participated in the survey-only group, while 919 participated in the survey-and-smartphone
app group. At the end of September 2022, five participants from the Munich Study explicitly opted out. If not stated
otherwise, numbers in parentheses refer to the findings from the reference group.
Figure 1 shows the study participation in the Munich Study before, during and after the period of the 9 EUR-Ticket
and the fuel tax cut. Figure 1
A
shows that the third-wave participation, i.e., after the 9 EUR-Ticket and fuel tax cut, is
around 10 % less compared to the second wave. Compared to the number of registered participants, 70 % completed the
third wave. In the end, 727 out of 919 participants who participated in the survey-and-app group (79 %) completed all
1https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/aktuelles/9-euro-ticket-2028756
2https://www.bundesfinanzministerium.de/Content/DE/Standardartikel/Themen/Schlaglichter/
Entlastungen/schnelle-spuerbare-entlastungen.html
3https://www.vdv.de/bilanz-9-euro-ticket.aspx
4https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/tankrabatt-hat-zunehmend-an-wirkung- verloren-rwi-studie- a-cb7a4e84-c943- 44a3-b0d3-fcfff9ba3061?
dicbo=v2-bf58f4c0d939c05bc696544c175d1063
5https://www.hfp.tum.de/hfp/tum-think-tank/mobilitaet-leben/
2
APREPRINT - OC TOBER 20, 2022
0
500
1000
1500
Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt
Date
Cumulative count
1st wave 2nd wave 3rd wave
App active Registered
A
0
250
500
750
1000
Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt
Date
Users
App heartbeat
Mobile users
B
Figure 1: Study participation in October 2022 in the Munich Study. The period of the 9 EUR-Ticket and the fuel tax cut
is indicated as the grey shaded area.
Table 1: Mode usage frequencies per week for car and public transport before, during and after the period of the
9 EUR-Ticket and the fuel tax cut.
Munich Study (N=901) Reference Group (N=583)
Before During After Before During After
Car PT Car PT Car PT Car PT Car PT Car PT
Daily 6.01 10.79 5.80 11.05 6.33 8.21 34.27 7.90 31.90 7.20 29.50 7.20
4-5 days/week 11.56 16.24 10.94 22.10 11.84 16.76 19.56 7.56 20.41 10.12 19.04 7.20
2-3 days/week 19.50 22.14 20.09 28.57 20.98 24.03 19.35 9.79 19.04 13.21 22.81 9.26
Once a week 13.95 15.13 18.30 16.96 18.29 19.23 6.85 6.19 10.98 9.26 9.61 10.12
Less than once a week 26.87 28.48 23.44 14.06 23.92 20.16 8.47 30.07 5.32 17.84 6.00 18.70
Never 22.11 7.23 21.43 7.25 18.64 11.61 11.49 38.49 12.35 42.37 13.04 47.51
three waves, while complete participation in the survey-only group of the Munich study was only 41 %. The difference
can be attributed to the incentive paid (30 EUR) for participation in the survey-and-app group. Nevertheless, the
survey collection can be considering successful as drop outs are less than expected, arguably as many participants were
intrinsically motivated to participate. In the reference group, 63 % of the initial participants completed all three waves.
Figure 1
B
shows the app participation during the entire study period until the end of September. It can be seen that
the app heartbeat, i.e., the app sends any signal to the server, is subsequently declining since its peak at the end of
June 2022. The numbers in the app heartbeat compared to the number of activated apps are lower because not every
person that successfully activated the app on their smartphone was able, e.g., for technical reasons, to initialize the
tracking. The pattern of mobile users follows the expected weekly pattern with less mobility on weekends. At the
end of the study, around 75 % of all activated apps were still providing their travel diaries. Compared to a similar
smartphone-based study in Switzerland [
12
], the survival rate in our study is similar when considering the planned
study period. Nevertheless, the incentive paid in the Swiss study was 100 CHF for eight weeks, while we pay 30 EUR
for sixteen weeks.
3 Travel behavior and the 9 EUR-Ticket
Table 1 summarizes the mode use frequencies across the three time periods of before, during and after the 9 EUR-Ticket
and fuel tax cut for all modes of public transport and the private car. Regarding public transport use, it can be seen that
the shares for daily use and no use at all are relatively stable across the three periods. In other words, those how already
used public transport almost daily or never did so the entire time. Contrary, the shares of 2-3 and 4-5 days per week
together grow during the of the 9 EUR-Ticket and fuel tax cut by around ten percentage points in the Munich Study and
3
APREPRINT - OC TOBER 20, 2022
around seven percentage points in the Reference Group. Regarding car use, regular use of 2 or more days per week did
not vary across the three phases. Contrary, data suggests that around three to five percent of both samples changed from
less than once a week to once a week from the before to the during period. One hypothesis could be the holiday season
or the fuel tax cut and the subsequent lower prices.
Some participants increased public transport usage compared to the before period despite the discontinuation of the
9 EUR-Ticket: 8.91 % (RG: 5.83 %) reported that they were using public transport more frequent in the after period
compared to the before period. Corroborating this finding using the mode use frequencies shows that 24.7 % (RG:
17.66 %) increased public transport usage. Regarding travel pass ownership (at least a weekly pass), 7.28 % (RG:
4.51 %) of previous non-owners subscribed to a travel pass in September. 53.00 % (RG: 32.93 %) of the respondents
stated that they replaced some car trips with public transport; these respondents further stated that in the after period
15.38 % (RG: 27.67 %) of weekly car trips are still being substituted by public transport, which is down from 34.75 %
(RG: 45.09 %) in the during phase. Nevertheless, 24.03 % (RG: 15.27 %) reduced public transport usage in the after
period compared to the before period. Of those 67.06 % (RG: 78.90 %) who did not change their public transport use
when comparing the before and after phase, 29.72 % (RG: 12.61 %) used public transport more in the during period.
Generally, 44.67 % (RG: 22.98 %) indicated that they were using public transport less in the after period compared to
the during period.
The discontinuation of the 9 EUR-Ticket and fuel tax cut changed the lives of many: 38.39 % (RG: 28.69 %) of
respondents argued that after this discontinuation parts of their daily routines have been changed. Here, in particular,
48.47 % (RG: 29.33 %) stated that they were more mobile during the 9 EUR-Ticket and fuel tax cut period; of all more
mobile respondents 80.37 % (RG: 73.63 %) named the 9 EUR-Ticket as one of the key reasons for their increased
mobility, while participation in more social events was named by 46.26 % (RG: 41.52 %), note that multiple answers
were possible.
When summarizing the above findings, it can be concluded that travel behavior in terms of public transport use
changed as expected with an increase in the during phase. Interestingly, we find evidence in the survey data for a small
hysteresis effect, i.e. some maintained (parts) their increased public transport from the during period, where its precise
quantification depends on the chosen measure.
4 Willingness-to-pay for a successor ticket
Participants in the third wave have been asked in a twofold way to state their consumer preferences for a successor to the
9 EUR-ticket. In the first approach, participants were asked to state their maximum willingness-to-pay for a successor
to the 9 EUR-Ticket. The resulting distributions are shown in Figure 2. A clear difference between the Munich Study
and the Reference Group can be seen for both, the kernel density estimate in Figure 2
A
as well as the cumulative
density plot in Figure 2
B
. The Munich Study has on average a much larger maximum willingness-to-pay compared to
the Reference Group. Based on our findings in our second-wave report [
11
], this can be attributed to the higher income
levels in our Munich Study as well as due to the more public transport oriented and experienced sample. Generally, we
can conclude that a successor ticket priced at 49 EUR would be acceptable for around 60 % (RG: 15 %) and a successor
ticket priced at 69 EUR only for 25 % (RG: 5 %). Note that the 9 EUR-Ticket has been bought by 83 % (RG: 45 %) of
participants. However, such maximum willingess-to-pay must not directly translate into purchasing decisions.
In order to understand the purchasing decisions of consumers in 2023, we performed a stated preference experiment in
the third wave. In this experiments, respondents were tasked to decide which of the following options they would buy:
• No travel pass
•
A local or regional travel pass, covering the area of existing transit districts, that is priced at 19 or 29 EUR per
month, following the idea of providing mobility for 1 EUR/day.
•
The Deutschlandabo as the successor to the 9 EUR-Ticket that is priced at 49, 59, 69 or 99 EUR per month,
following the currently discussed price points for that ticket.
• The Deutschlandabo including long-distance services, i.e., valid for all public transport services in Germany,
priced at 249 or 349 EUR per month. This ticket is similar to the BahnCard 100, but includes all local and
regional public transport services as well.
•
A distance fare system with a price cap at the price for the Deutschlandabo including long-distance services.
The distance fares are 10 or 20 EUR per 100 km and is aligned with prices typically obtained from using the
half-fare card BahnCard 50.
We employed a full-factorial design, in total 32 choice sets, and grouped them into four blocks, i.e., each respondent
is tasked with in total of eight decision scenarios, where only price attributes are varying. Using the data from the
4
APREPRINT - OC TOBER 20, 2022
0.000
0.005
0.010
0.015
0.020
0 25 50 75 100
Max. willingness−to−pay (EUR/month)
Density (−)
Munich Study Reference Group
A
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0 25 50 75 100
Max. willingness−to−pay (EUR/month)
Cumulative density (−)
Munich Study Reference Group
B
Figure 2: Distributions of the willingness-to-pay for a successor ticket to the 9 EUR-Ticket in the Munich Study and the
Reference Group. Ashows the density and Bthe cumulative distributions.
Table 2: Parameter estimates for the travel pass ownership model. Note that only the observations from the Reference
Group are used to obtained nation-wide representative parameter estimates as possible. The alternative no travel pass is
set at the reference point.
Parameter No pass (base) Local pass Deutschlandabo Deutschlandabo Distance fare
incl.
long-distance services
ASC 2.95 (3.68) 1.07 (1.27) -8.06 (-5.38) -5.76 (-4.89)
σASC 4.47 (13.56) -3.97 (-10.70) 4.90 (6.53) -4.89 (-10.17)
Price -0.14 (-7.43) -0.06 (-7.10) -0.01 (-2.38) -0.1 (-3.65)
Male - 0.78 (-2.19) 1.22 (2.98) 0.61 (0.85) -0.14 (-0.25)
Urban 2.42 (5.88) 1.24 (3.01) 1.74 (1.58) 0.99 (1.63)
Car ownership -3.566 (6.21) -0.99 (-2.20) 1.5 (1.57) -0.36 (-0.55)
Income less than 1499 EUR per month base base base base
Income from 1500 to 2499 EUR per month 0.29 (0.50) 0.93 (1.50) 0.99 (0.81) 1.65 (2.53)
Income from 2500 to 3999 EUR per month 1.25 (1.90) 0.09 (0.15) 2.16 (2.10) 2.96 (3.56)
Income more than 4000 EUR per month 0.82 (1.4) 0.08 (0.12) 2.24 (1.92) 2.58 (3.57)
Number of decision makers: 581
Number of choices: 4598
LL (0) = 7400.2
LL (final) = 3128.6
Adj. ρ2= 0.58
Reference Group to obtain as nation-wide representative parameter estimates as possible for the consumer decisions,
we estimated a mixed logit model [13] using the R package mixl [14]. Table 2 summarizes the parameter estimates.
The parameter estimates in Table 2 are first results and further model development is required in future research.
However, these first results allow to understand already the basic mechanism in the decision making for travel pass
ownership. Generally, all parameter estimates for the prices are negative and significant as expected. Interestingly, we
find a negative effect of being male on local travel pass and a positive effect of being male on the Deutschlandabo. A
possible explanation could be that men might commute longer distances, eventually beyond the borders of the existing
transit districts. Living in an urban environment (following the RegioStar classification) increases the likelihood of
buying any travel pass. Perhaps surprisingly, we find no significant income effect in the decision for the Deutschlandabo,
while it exists in the choices for the Deutschlandabo incl. long-distance services and the distance fare ticket. In addition,
we find that car ownership impacts negatively the choices of local pass and Deutschlandabo, while a positive effect can
be seen for the choice of Deutschlandabo incl. long-distance services. Together with the significant income effect, the
latter could be an indication of wealthy households opting for several mobility tools in parallel.
5
APREPRINT - OC TOBER 20, 2022
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
50 60 70 80 90 100
Price Deutschlandabo (EUR)
Average choice probabilities (−)
Deutschlandabo Local pass No pass
A
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
50 60 70 80 90 100
Price Deutschlandabo (EUR)
Share (−)
9EUR−Ticket owners All
B
Figure 3: Estimated choices for the ownership of new travel passes in Germany.
A
the average choice probabilities and
Bshare of customers who buy one of the new tickets of all previous 9 EUR-Ticket owners.
We use the parameter estimates from Table 2 to simulate the choice outcomes as a function of the price of the
Deutschlandabo. The results are shown in Figure 3. Figure 3
A
shows the average choice probabilities for no travel
pass, the local travel pass (at 30 EUR/month) and the Deutschlandabo. It can be seen that on average, at no currently
discussed price level the average choice probability surpasses the probabilities for obtaining no travel pass at all, i.e., at
no price level can it be expected that more than half of the population will buy a travel pass. Interestingly, we see that
between 60 and 70 EUR/month the average choice probability for the Deutschlandabo falls below the local travel pass,
i.e., it is becoming less attractive for the average citizen. Figure 3 shows the shares of ownership among all and among
previous 9 EUR-Ticket owners. When priced at 49 EUR/month for the 9 EUR-Ticket successor and 30 EUR/month for
a local travel pass, more than 60 % of previous 9 EUR-Ticket owners would purchase one of the two new tickets. At
this price level, our sample would see an increase in travel pass ownership by more than 20 %, while at higher price
levels ownership levels would drop below current ownership levels. Note that the average monthly ticket currently costs
around 55 EUR in Germany, making a 100 EUR ticket very unattractive to many.
5 Finances and energy
Effects of the persisting price increases in Germany in 2022 can be seen in the survey data. In May 2022, 57.81 % (RG:
45.31 %) of households were able to make savings of their income; of these, 87.88 % (RG: 77.39 %) can still do in
September, leaving 10.10 % (RG: 16.48 %) making no savings anymore and 2.02 % (RG: 6.13 %) drawing money from
savings. Using a five-point Likert-scale, respondents were asked to agree with the statement that due to the increased
prices, they have to do without many other things in life. In May 2022, 16 % (RG: 41 %) of respondents agreed with
the statement, but in September 2022, 26 % (RG: 50 %) agreed, i.e., by selecting the two highest options on the scale.
Generally, 41 % (RG: 31 %) of respondents agreed stronger with the statement in September compared to May, i.e.,
selected a higher option on the scale in September than in June.
Regarding the energy crisis, 43 % (51 %) of respondents are concerned about the energy security in the upcoming
winter. Here, 75 % (65 %) of respondents stated that they already took measures to reduce energy costs, where 90 %
(83 %) named reducing electricity and heating energy consumption as their primary action. From the participants who
had already received their utility bills from last winter, 49 % (48 %) of them did receive a back payment, which was
mainly under 250 Euros 55 % (51 %) or between 250 and 500 Euros 33 % (29 %). In contrast, 32 % (39 %) of the
respondents had to pay extra, again mostly less than 250 euros 68 % (64 %) followed by repayments between 250 and
500 euros 19 % (16 %). When asked about their current energy running costs, 51 % (49 %) of the participants indicated
that the monthly prepayment for electricity had not changed lately and for heating 51 % (57 %) also saw no change. On
the contrary, 36 % (42 %) of the respondents did get a change on their monthly prepayment for electricity and 29 %
(27 %) for their heating costs.
6
APREPRINT - OC TOBER 20, 2022
6 Discussion and outlook
In this fourth report, we have provided some first insights into the third wave of our study "Mobilität.Leben", which
marks the end of the first phase of our study. Given the ongoing energy crisis and the likely introduction of a successor
to the 9 EUR-Ticket, we will bring this study into its second phase and continue until the second quarter of the year
2023. The first findings of this report can summarized as follows
•
We completed the first phase of our study successfully with around 1000 (RG: 581) completed three survey
waves and more than 600 participants who completed the three waves and participated in the smartphone app.
•
Since the end of the 9 EUR-Ticket and fuel tax cut, a hysteresis effect seems to exist in terms of public
transport usage for some respondents, e.g., reflected a more frequent use of public transport of 8.9 % (RG:
5.8 %) after the 9 EUR-Ticket period compared to the time before as well as 7.3 % (RG: 4.5 %) of all
respondents subscribing for the first time to a travel pass. Nevertheless, the changes in travel behavior during
the 9 EUR-Ticket period are not that substantial, which is in line with experience from other studies exploring
free-fare public transport [15].
•
The currently discussed price for the successor to the 9 EUR-Ticket of around 49 EUR/month would see a
decrease in purchases compared to the 9 EUR-Ticket, but based on our findings it can be expected that more
than 60 % of all previous 9 EUR-Ticket owners would either buy the successor ticket for 49 EUR-Ticket or a
new local travel pass at around 30 EUR/month, which would lead to an increase of travel pass ownership in
Germany of more than 20 %.
•
Interestingly, we do find an income effect in the purchase decision for a successor to the 9 EUR-Ticket, while
other factors like living in an urban environment, having no car or being male increase the likelihood for
the ticket purchase. Nevertheless, we reported an income effect for the willingness-to-pay in our report on
the second wave [
11
], where we see that lower incomes prefer a 9 EUR-Ticket successor priced at around
30 EUR/month, but this effect vanishes for middle and higher incomes. As this price level has not been used
in the stated-preference experiment lower income individuals would arguably not choose the successor ticket,
but either the local travel pass or no pass instead.
In closing, it should be noted that this report does not present the final results of our study, but rather a snapshot of our
current research as we are constantly analyzing the data further. Therefore, the presented findings should be considered
as preliminary and indicative.
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank the TUM Think Tank at the Munich School of Politics and Public Policy led by Urs
Gasser for their financial and organizational support and the TUM Board of Management for supporting personally
the genesis of the project. The authors thank the company MOTIONTAG for their efforts in producing the app at
unprecedented speed. Further, the authors would like thank everyone who supported us in recruiting participants,
especially Oliver May-Beckmann (M Cube) and Ulrich Meyer (TUM), respectively.
References
[1]
Michael L Anderson. Subways, strikes, and slowdowns: The impacts of public transit on traffic congestion.
American Economic Review, 104:2763–2796, 2014.
[2]
Martin W Adler and Jos N van Ommeren. Does public transit reduce car travel externalities? quasi-natural
experiments’ evidence from transit strikes. Journal of Urban Economics, 92:106–119, 2016.
[3]
Joseph Molloy, Thomas Schatzmann, Beaumont Schoeman, Christopher Tchervenkov, Beat Hintermann, and
Kay W. Axhausen. Observed impacts of the covid-19 first wave on travel behaviour in switzerland based on a
large gps panel. Transport Policy, 104:43–51, 4 2021.
[4]
Shanjiang Zhu, David Levinson, Henry X. Liu, and Kathleen Harder. The traffic and behavioral effects of the
I-35W Mississippi River bridge collapse. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 44:771–784, 12
2010.
[5]
Moshe E Ben-Akiva, Steven R Lerman, Steven R Lerman, et al. Discrete choice analysis: theory and application
to travel demand, volume 9. MIT press, 1985.
[6]
Lorna A. Greening, David L. Greene, and Carmen Difiglio. Energy efficiency and consumption — the rebound
effect — a survey. Energy Policy, 28:389–401, 6 2000.
7
APREPRINT - OC TOBER 20, 2022
[7]
Kent M. Hymel, Kenneth A. Small, and Kurt Van Dender. Induced demand and rebound effects in road transport.
Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, 44:1220–1241, 12 2010.
[8]
Claude Weis and Kay W Axhausen. Induced travel demand: Evidence from a pseudo panel data based structural
equations model. Research in Transportation Economics, 25:8–18, 2009.
[9]
Allister Loder, Fabienne Cantner, Lennart Adenaw, Markus Siewert, Sebastian Goerg, Markus Lienkamp, and
Klaus Bogenberger. A nation-wide experiment: fuel tax cuts and almost free public transport for three months in
germany – report 1 study design, recruiting and participation, 2022.
[10]
Fabienne Cantner, Nico Nachtigall, Lisa S. Hamm, Andrea Cadavid, Lennart Adenaw, Allister Loder, Markus B.
Siewert, Sebastian Goerg, Markus Lienkamp, and Klaus Bogenberger. A nation-wide experiment: fuel tax
cuts and almost free public transport for three months in Germany – Report 2 First wave results. 2022.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.10510.
[11]
Allister Loder, Fabienne Cantner, Andrea Cadavid, Markus B. Siewert, Stefan Wurster, Sebastian Goerg, and
Klaus Bogenberger. A nation-wide experiment: fuel tax cuts and almost free public transport for three months in
Germany – Report 3 Second wave results. 2022. Publisher: arXiv Version Number: 2.
[12]
Kay W. Axhausen, Joseph Molloy, Christopher Tchervenkov, Felix Becker, Beat Hintermann, Beaumont Schoe-
man, Thomas Götschi, Alberto Castro Fernández, and Uros Tomic. Empirical analysis of mobility behavior in
the presence of Pigovian transport pricing. Technical report, Bundesamt für Strassen (ASTRA), Eidgenössisches
Departement für Umwelt, Verkehr, Energie und Kommunikation (UVEK), July 2021. Volume: 1704.
[13] Kenneth E Train. Discrete choice methods with simulation. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2009.
[14]
Joseph Molloy, Basil Schmid, Felix Becker, and Kay W Axhausen. mixl. An open-source R package for estimating
complex choice models on large datasets, 2019. Publication Title: Arbeitsberichte Verkehrs- und Raumplanung
Volume: 1408.
[15]
Wojciech K˛ebłowski. Why (not) abolish fares? Exploring the global geography of fare-free public transport.
Transportation, 47(6):2807–2835, December 2020.
8
