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Dataset Global Warming Forecast using Acceleration Factors

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Abstract

The dataset includes results of Global Warming forecast using four methods. The methods include a parabolic trendline of the last 61 years of global warming and cumulated CO2 emissions. Two other methods apply the velocity and the acceleration of global warming and cumulative CO2 emissions. The relation between the global surface temperature change and the change in the cumulative CO2 emissions was determined in previous publications as 0.000745°C/GtCO2. The average result from all four methods for the business as usual CO2 mitigation scenario is 4.4°C (4.1°C -5.0°C). According to this forecast, the global temperature change will reach 1.5°C in 2031 (9 years from now) and 2.0°C in 2047 (25 years from now).
  
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  $ $'' $ %$ $ & &%'''& %%
  $ $'& %$%% %$% $' &' &&%' % %
  $ $' %$ %$%' %$ &  &  &%
 % $%& $ % %$ %$&% %$& &% & & &
 & $  $ & %$'& %$&' %$& &&&& &'& &
  %$ $ %$ %$ %$% &%& & %' &&%
 ' %$ $' %$& %$  %$ &%'& & '&&' &  %'
 %$ $' %$ %$'% %$% &&&' & & % &%%&&
  %$ $ %$%&& %$'' %$  &&& && &%' '
  %$' $ %$% %$ &% %$%& && &  &&'''
 %$ %$&% %$&%' %$  %$%  &' '' &%
 %$ %$ %$& %$ %$& &'   %& & 
 %$ %$% %$ %$& %$&' & %%''  &''
% %$%% %$ %$ ' %$ % %$' & ' % % & ' 
& %$%  %$%& %$'% &$% %$' &'  &  & & &
 %$&& %$% %$'  &$ %$'& &&  & ' ' && %
' %$& %$%%% %$  &$ %$''& && '  & 
 %$& %$%% %$ ' &$ %$  % '&& &
 %$& %$&%& %$ &$  %$ ' %  % ' '
 %$ %$&' %$'& &$%%% %$' & % %
 %$' %$% %$& &$% %$'  ' ''
 %$'' %$ %$'% &$& %$ %'' '% %'
 %$  %$'&& &$% &$ %$  %%%' ''& &' %''
% %$ & %$' &$'% &$ &$ & '& %'
& %$  %$ % &$& &$'& &$   ' '%' & & %&
 %$& %$ &$' &$ % &$% '& '%& &%'
' %$' %$'& &$' &$  &$' '' '&% ' '
 %$% %$ &$' &$&& &$&  &  '&& '
 %$ ' %$  &$% &$ &$'  &&& ' &%  ' 
 &$ &$%' &$%  &$ &$% '& ''  % 
 &$'' &$& &$&& $& &$& %&' ' '  %
( )"* (+,
*! *! - )"*
.! .!   .!  
%& & &%  %%% '%
%% & &&  % '&
%%& && & ' %&&& '  '
%% ' &'%& %&  '
%&&% ' &  %%%&  &%'&
%&  & %%    '
%% %  %& 
%  % %&  &' 
%'%%'   && %'  
%''  %' %'  &
%   &% %' ' % %
%   &' '& %'%' 
%''    & %''  &
% % '   % & '&'
%& % '%' %  &
% % %& '%& %%& &'
& % & '  %&   &
&  & '& %%& 
& & ' %  
& ' & ' & && 
&& &' '% &  %%
& &  &' & %'
&% &  &' &'
&%   ' %' &% &'& '
&& ' &  &'&  %'
&&  '% '&& &%  &%
& '   &%& %%
& %&  &   &&% '%
&'&  %  && '
&'   % %% &&&   %
&     &&'%   '
&  ' &% ' &&% 
&%%  % &'&% '%&%
&   & &' &
&%&   % & % '%
&'& & &' &   % 
% %% ' % &%& %'
%  % % &% %&'
&% &  &% %&&
' ' % & & %%%
&     %&%&
% &     %%&
%'     %%''
& %% %%  ' %& '
&'%% %  &  %&''
  & '%  &' %'
  & % & %% %''
'  % %  %'
' &   && & %' &
 %% '%   & ' % ''
 & '    % & 
&%   %  & %% 
   %% ' % 
% % %& '' %' &
'& % &&   &'
''%  &%  ' &' %
'% % &'  & %
'  %' ' '% &&&
à/&0
'% % %  &&%'
'' % '%' '  &%%
'%&% %& '& '  &%'%&
'% %% ' '' &&&%&
'&' %%& ''%& ' ' &&%
' %& '  '' ' &&'
'' %  %% ' ' &''%
''' %  ' '' ' &' %
''%' %''  '% & %'
' & % % & '%'  & '&
' & %'  '&  &' 
'' %   '&' & 
'% % %' ' & %
'  &%'   '' &&
 &' & ''% &
 & ' '''& 
&'' & '' ' ' &'
 &%' '% ' ' %'
'& && %% ' %&%&%
% && % '' &'%%
% &'% % ' %
&& &  % & '' '%
' & &  ' 
$ &&&% % .
Dataset Global Warming Forecast using Acceleration Factors
#,12*,3+4
5)61%%&'
71$$
",(!-'
6)1$.8($ 
6)1$.8($ 
9-:( )6
5:- /0/0
;!  
"! 
::: <
:-*(- <
:,- 3
,= 3
(-, 3
> .!
5 .!
  
Citation:
website:
,*1..+$-
???
",(:*-/0/0@CO2 emissions
produced from fossil fuels and cement production only – land use change
is not included@
6;-#--;-2*,
3+4$6)1$.8($ 
Abstract
",(-(::-:,($
Keywords:
,




-
:-
*:-

2-
2-
???
",,(-(*-(:,'!:+(
-($
"+,,(**!,-!(,--:+(
-$
",+,:-*-,(,-,,
-+((**-$ &.$
",::,(:,-
&$&A&$$B$
#--(,:-,*-,+-,$%A!
:+B($& A!:+B$
Glossary
#


#
"


#
5
"


Glossary
#:**-,

--:-
*-(
:-*,(C-
D-(:
---(*-/0/0*(-(:
::(-*(-!E(-,-((
:F
--:-#---,
5.!/0
5E-,:-**!,(*(
.!/0
:-
'F'
:*/0/0/%0/&0
 .! 
 .! 
-, G.! %$ &G
 .! &
-, G.! $ G
-, G.! $ G
-H /%0/&0  &% 
:*/0/0/%0/&0
7 6)
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$.
8($ 
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References
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References
4!J,"*5*:
,*1..4!,$.**:.
,*1..($.$&.(%&'$
(6
,*1..+(($.*,.--
9:-"*,6(
$$E2*,3+46)1$.8($'&'%
#--$$2*,3+4
6)1$.8($'''
17-!(#--:,J
$$E2*,3+46)1$.8($'' &
(E2*,3+4
6)1$.8($''
)9"JD"1)999:-"*#!A)9"JDB&$
3#9#((():9*-9($6--(
,*1..($$$.*
3$$9-,(2$=$#$D5$5(!(6$K!
1)*,)9"JD-!($2$*,!$5$#$
&$'% '%'(1$.26$
3##3:J:-1
"9*,(;!(-,:
,*1..+++$-(-$$.-.
5,(5$#$(=:,K$1",4!J,(.-"*
5-(J,9!$9-$6%&'%& 
=,5-,L5J((,-(((D5(
6(,J!M(6
,*1..,$-.+(.-(I(-(,!
+((
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;-#--;-2*,3+4
6)1$.8($''&
J:)"*$%$2*,3+4
6)1$.8($ '
6J:)"*$%$E2*,
3+46)1$.8($ '

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