Cumulative CO2 Emissions of International Transport

Abstract

The dataset of global cumulative CO2 emissions is from 1750. The baseline of this dataset is 1749. The dataset includes also international transport cumulative CO2 emissions from 1950. The baseline of international transport is 1949. This work considers the year 1783, when the first steamship was built, as the first year of the international transport CO2 emissions. In this work, the global cumulative CO2 emissions including international transport are converted to the 1875 baseline, similar to the Global Warming baseline (1850-1900). The international transport cumulative CO2 emissions caused a 0.032°C temperature increase in 2020, 2.5% of the Global Warming.

Full text

Cumulative CO2 Emissions of International Transport
Joseph Nowarski, M.Sc., ME – Energy Conservation Expert
Version 1.3.1, 6 October 2022
DOI:10.5281/zenodo.7151688
all versions DOI:10.5281/zenodo.7114109
Abstract
The dataset of global cumulative CO2 emissions is from 1750. The baseline of this
dataset is 1749.
The dataset includes also international transport cumulative CO2 emissions from
1950. The baseline of international transport is 1949.
This work considers the year 1783, when the first steamship was built, as the first year
of the international transport CO2 emissions.
In this work, the global cumulative CO2 emissions including international transport
are converted to the 1875 baseline, similar to the Global Warming baseline (1850-
1900).
The international transport cumulative CO2 emissions caused a 0.032°C
temperature increase in 2020, 2.5% of the Global Warming.
Keywords: Climate Change, Global Warming, Global Warming baseline, CO2 emissions, CO2 emissions baseline,
international transport, international transport emissions

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Glossary
Ave average
BL baseline
CCO2 global cumulative CO2 emissions according to publication [1] [2],
CO2 emissions produced from fossil fuels and cement production
only – land use change is not included, tCO2
CO2 emissions of Carbon Dioxide, CO2
CO2GW correlation between cumulative CO2 emissions and global
warming = 0.000745°C/GtCO2 [3]
GtCO2 Giga-ton of CO2, 109 ton, 10^9 ton, 1,000,000,000 ton CO2
MtCO2 Mega-ton CO2, 106 ton, 10^6 ton, 1,000,000 ton CO2
OWID Our World in Data – Internet site [1] [2]
Ref reference
tCO2 ton CO2
Formula for Average Annual Change
Formula 1 - Average annual change of parameter X in period 1990-2020
[%/year]
rX = (X2/X1)^(1/(y2-y1)) - 1
rX average annual change of parameter X in period from y1 to y2,
%/year
X1 value of parameter X at the beginning of the period
X2 value of parameter X at the end of the period
y1 beginning of the period = 1990
y2 end of the period = 2020

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Correlation between Cumulative CO2 Emissions and Global Warming
The correlation between cumulative CO2 emissions and Global Warming was
analyzed in the publication “Global Warming and Cumulative CO2” [3].
The correlation is:
Formula 2 - Correlation between Cumulative CO2 Emissions and Global Warming
[3] [°C/GtCO2]
CO2GW = 0.000745°C/GtCO2
Dataset
Table 1 - Dataset [1] [2]
World International
Transport
Source of data OWID OWID
Reference [1] [2] [1] [2]
From year 1750 1950
To year 2020 2020
CO2 from fossil fuels Yes Yes
CO2 from cement production Yes
CO2 from other sources No
Other GHG No No
Land use change No
Units tCO2/y tCO2/y
Resolution 1 tCO2/y 1 tCO2/y
Cumulative CO2 emissions baseline 1749 1949
The dataset is from publication [1] [2], CO2 emissions produced from fossil fuels
and cement production only – land use change is not included.
Dataset Baselines
Total global CO2 emissions per year are from 1750 [1] [2]. This is also the first year of
calculations of the cumulative CO2 emissions of the world, which means that for
this parameter the baseline is 1749.

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However, international transport CO2 emissions are from 1950 and the first year of
the cumulative CO2 emissions is 1950 [1] [2], which means that for this parameter
the baseline is 1949.
International Transport Data
According to the publication [1] [2] the CO2 emissions of international transport in
1950 were 128,393,888 tCO2/y and the cumulative CO2 emissions in 1950 are also
128,393,888 tCO2. This indicates that the baseline for cumulative CO2 emissions of
international transport in publication [1] [2] is 1949.
The annual average change in CO2 emissions of international transport in the
period 1950-2020 is 2.98%/y.
Table 2 - CO2 emissions of international transport 1950-2020 [tCO2/y]
CO2 emissions 1950 tCO2/y 128,393,888
CO2 emissions 2020 tCO2/y 1,004,232,513
annual average change %/y 2.9820%
This work considers the year of construction of the first steamship as the first year of
international transport CO2 emissions. The first steamship was built in 1783
[wikipedia.org/wiki/Steamboat].
This allows calculations of the annual average change in international transport
CO2 emission for the period 1949-1783 considering 128,393,888 tCO2/y in 1950 and
a rough estimation of 100 tCO2/y in 1783.
Application of Formula 1 results in an 8.8%/y annual average change in
international transport CO2 emission for the period 1783-1950, compared to 3.0%/y
in the period 1950-2020.

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Table 3 - Extrapolation of CO2 emissions data for international transport
1950-1783 [tCO2/y]
Start year 1783
End year 1950
years 167
International transport CO2 emissions 1783 100 tCO2/y
International transport CO2 emissions 1950 128,393,888 tCO2/y
annual average change 8.7873% %/y
This approach adds 1,458,263,621 tCO2 to the cumulative CO2 emissions above
the 1949 baseline [6].
Cumulative CO2 Emissions Baselines
Table 4 - Global cumulative CO2 emissions baselines, including
international transport [tCO2]
CCO2 CCO2 CCO2 CCO2
year BL=1749 BL=1849 BL=1875 BL=1990
tCO2 tCO2 tCO2 tCO2
1749 0
1750 9,350,528
1849 4,562,519,056 0
1875 14,915,579,842 10,353,060,786 0
1990 807,604,637,285 803,042,118,229 792,689,057,443 0
2020 1,696,524,177,053 1,691,961,657,997 1,681,608,597,211 888,919,539,768
Table 5 - Global cumulative CO2 emissions baselines, without international
transport [tCO2]
CCO2 CCO2 CCO2 CCO2
year BL=1749 BL=1849 BL=1875 BL=1990
tCO2 tCO2 tCO2 tCO2
1749 0
1750 9,350,528
1849 4,562,198,917 0
1875 14,912,710,795 10,350,511,878 0
1990 791,558,963,255 786,996,764,337 776,646,252,459 0
2020 1,652,820,504,061 1,648,258,305,143 1,637,907,793,265 861,261,540,806

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Cumulative CO2 Emissions Above 1749 Baseline
Chart 1 - World cumulative CO2 emissions above 1749 baseline [tCO2]
0
200,000,000,000
400,000,000,000
600,000,000,000
800,000,000,000
1,000,000,000,000
1,200,000,000,000
1,400,000,000,000
1,600,000,000,000
1,800,000,000,000
1750
1760
1770
1780
1790
1800
1810
1820
1830
1840
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
World without International Transport World with International Transport
Cumulative CO2 Emissions Above 1875 Baseline
The publication “Global Warming Datasets Converted to 1850-1900 Baseline” [4]
considers the 1850-1900 baseline as the most appropriate for calculations of the
Global Warning.
Accordingly, the cumulative CO2 emissions should be also above a similar
baseline.
The “similar” baseline to the 1850-1900 period is the year 1875. The cumulative CO2
emissions data will be converted in this work to the 1875 baseline.

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Table 6 - Cumulative CO2 emissions above 1875 baseline [6]
1990 2020
BL=1875 BL=1875
tCO2 tCO2
World without international transport 776,646,252,459 1,637,907,793,265
International transport 16,042,804,984 43,700,803,946
World with international transport 792,689,057,443 1,681,608,597,211
International transport to world 2.1% 2.7%
annual average change of international
transport to world ratio 0.86%
The dataset of cumulative global CO2 emissions above 1875 baseline including
international transport can be found in [6].
Global Cumulative CO2 Emissions and Global Warming
Bringing global cumulative CO2 emissions and Global Warming data to the same
baseline (1850-1900/1875) allows direct calculations of global surface temperature
change (Global Warming) using Formula 2.
The Global Warming dataset above the 1850-1900 baseline can be found in
publication [5].
Table 7 - Global cumulative CO2 emissions and Global Warming above
1850-1900/1875 baseline
1990 2020
Cumulative CO2 emissions without
international transport tCO2 776,646,252,459 1,637,907,793,265
CO2GW [3] °C/GtCO2 0.000745443 0.000745443
Cumulative CO2 emissions without
international transport °C 0.579 1.221
International transport tCO2 16,042,804,984 43,700,803,946
International transport °C 0.012 0.033
International transport to world 1.6% 2.5%
Cumulative CO2 emissions including
international transport tCO2 792,689,057,443 1,681,608,597,211
Cumulative CO2 emissions including
international transport °C 0.591 1.254
Actual Global Warming °C 0.757 1.319
Δ °C 0.166 0.066

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Chart 2 - Global cumulative CO2 emissions converted to Global Warming, and
actual Global Warming above 1850-1900/1875 baseline [°C]
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
CO2toGW Actual
Forecast 2020-2100
The annual average change in international transport CO2 emissions in the period
1990-2020 is 1.979%/y.
The forecast for the 2020-2100 period is based on the same annual average
change, 1.979%/y.
Table 8 - Forecast of CO2 emissions 2020-2100
CO2 emissions 1950 MtCO2/y 128
CO2 emissions 1990 MtCO2/y 558
annual average change 1950-1990 %/y 3.741%
CO2 emissions 2020 MtCO2/y 1,004
annual average change 1990-2020 %/y 1.979%
annual average change 2020-2100 %/y 1.979%
CO2 emissions in 2100 forecast MtCO2/y 4,815
cumulative CO2 emissions 2020 BL=1875 MtCO2 43,701
cumulative CO2 emissions 2100 BL=1875 MtCO2 240,088

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Changes in this Version
Added 2020-2100 forecast based on annual average changes 1990-2020.

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References
1. Hannah Ritchie, Max Roser, Edouard Mathieu, Bobbie Macdonald and
Pablo Rosado - Data on CO₂ and Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Our World
in Data
https://github.com/owid/co2-data#data-on-co2-and-greenhouse-gas-
emissions-by-our-world-in-data
2. Our World in Data, Cumulative CO2 emissions, 2020
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-co-emissions
3. Global Warming and Cumulative CO2 - Joseph Nowarski, DOI:
10.5281/zenodo.6619550
4. Global Warming Datasets Converted to 1850-1900 Baseline Transport –
Joseph Nowarski, DOI:10.5281/zenodo.6386179
5. Global Surface Temperature Changes Datasets Converted to 1850-1900
Baseline - Joseph Nowarski, DOI:10.5281/zenodo.6386191
6. Dataset Cumulative CO2 Emissions of International Transport v1.3.1 – Joseph
Nowarski, DOI:10.5281/zenodo.7151689
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