Article

Contact with former adversaries through mass-media is linked to forgiveness after dyadic and multi-ethnic conflicts

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Abstract

Four correlational studies (N Albanians = 232, N Serbs = 129, N Bosniaks = 147, N Croats = 367) and one experimental study (N Bosniaks = 682), investigated the link between mass-mediated contact (i.e., information about former adversaries from the mass media) and forgiveness towards former adversaries in post-conflict societies. Specifically, we tested the association between positive and negative mass-mediated contact with one former adversary and forgiveness towards this former adversary (i.e., a primary transfer effect, Studies 1-4) and another former adversary (i.e., a secondary transfer effect, Studies 2-4). Positive mass-mediated contact with one former adversary was linked to greater forgiveness towards that former adversary and another former adversary. Intergroup trust mediated the primary transfer effect of positive mass-mediated contact, whereas generalization of trust and forgiveness from one former adversary to another mediated the secondary transfer effect. Our results underline the important role of positive but not negative mass-mediated contact with former adversaries in reconciliation.

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... As a strategy, two types of mediated contact have especially been shown to contribute to positive group relations-vicarious contact which entails observing positive interactions between ingroup and outgroup members, and parasocial contact which involves being exposed to positive portrayals of the outgroup in media (Mazziotta et al., 2011;Schiappa et al., 2005). Vicarious contact especially has demonstrated a capacity to also reduce social distance (Koc & Anderson, 2018) and even foster intergroup forgiveness (Rupar et al., 2022). ...
... Based on these results, we can conclude that the beneficial impact of positive mediated contact outweighs the detrimental impact of negative mediated contact. This conclusion aligns with a previous study (Rupar et al., 2022) that highlighted the greater importance of positive mediated contact compared to negative mediated contact in achieving reconciliation. The concept of scarcity suggested by Rupar et al. (2022), implying that scarcer contact is more influential, may also apply to our study. ...
... This conclusion aligns with a previous study (Rupar et al., 2022) that highlighted the greater importance of positive mediated contact compared to negative mediated contact in achieving reconciliation. The concept of scarcity suggested by Rupar et al. (2022), implying that scarcer contact is more influential, may also apply to our study. Table 1 reveals that positive mediated contact was less frequent than negative mediated contact at both time points. ...
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To investigate the effectiveness of mediated contact in the context of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, two studies were conducted. Both studies proposed a model in which outgroup attitudes acted as mediators between mediated contact and two outcome variables: intergroup forgiveness and social distance. The first study utilized a correlational design and gathered data from 223 Azerbaijani young individuals. The results confirmed a significant link between current positive mediated contact and intergroup forgiveness. Additionally, positive mediated contact before the conflict was associated with reduced social distance. However, for negative mediated contact, a significant association was observed only between negative mediated contact before the conflict and intergroup forgiveness. The mediation analysis provided support for the role of outgroup attitudes in influencing intergroup forgiveness. In the second study, an experimental design was employed, involving 226 participants (99 in the control group and 127 in the experimental group). The results replicated the positive effects of positive mediated contact, where participants in the experimental group watched a short video depicting the peaceful cohabitation of Azerbaijanis and Armenians. This positive mediated contact led to improved outgroup attitudes, increased levels of intergroup forgiveness, and reduced social distance. Surprisingly, the proposed model with outgroup attitudes as a mediator was not confirmed in the experimental design.
... Research considering the differential effects of positive and negative mass-mediated contact on attitudes revealed mixed findings (e.g., Schemer 2012, Visintin et al. 2017. While positive or negative mass-mediated contact can be more predictive of attitudes across different intergroup contexts ( Pagotto and Voci 2013, Rupar and Graf 2019, Rupar et al. 2022 ), a recent meta-analysis concluded both forms of contact to produce opposite, but equally strong effects on attitudes ( Banas et al., 2020 ). ...
... 6 Participants were randomly assigned to three different conditions. The procedure was similar to mass-mediated contact manipulations used in previous research (e.g., Rupar et al. 2022 ). The positive massmediated contact condition ( N = 65) included a bogus news report where participants read about the contributions of Afghan refugees to Turkey both culturally and economically, with a specific example of an Afghan refugee who won a scientific prize. ...
... We further found that the relative strength of positive versus negative mass-mediated contact effects varied across variables. For example, particularly in Study 1, positive mass-mediated contact (but not negative mass-mediated contact) was a direct predictor of all the outcome variables, which is in line with previous research conducted in more hostile intergroup contexts ( Rupar et al., 2022 ). Studies conducted in Turkey have also previously shown direct positive contact to have a stronger role in predicting attitudes compared to negative contact, potentially due to greater category salience of positive contact which might be more transformative in highly threatening contexts ( Bagci et al., 2022a ;Bagci and Turnuklu, 2019 ). ...
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In two studies, we investigated how positive and negative mass-mediated contact shape attitudes towards refugees and support for their rights through dehumanization. Study 1 (correlational, N = 193, community sample) demonstrated both positive and negative mass-mediated contact to predict attitudes towards Afghan refugees, as well as support for their rights, through lower and higher levels of dehumanization, respectively. Study 2 (experimental, N = 214, student sample) showed that positive mass-mediated contact directly improved attitudes towards refugees, whereas negative (but not positive) mass-mediated contact increased the dehumanization (less human view) of refugees, which was in turn related to reduced support for their rights. Findings highlight the critical role of mass-mediated contact in the formation of pro-refugee attitudes in an increasingly hostile migration context.
... Research suggests that information about former adversaries may come from various sources, such as news, the internet, TV series, and movies (Rupar & Graf, 2019;Rupar et al., 2022). An especially important asset of the current increased availability of distinct mass media providers is the opportunity to learn distinct narratives -not only from the ingroup but also from the outgroup and thus not only those stemming from the dominating ideology but also those proposing an alternative understanding of relevant events. ...
... These findings support the results (Bouman et al., 2014(Bouman et al., , 2015. In line with the literature (Rupar et al., 2022), the findings of Study 2 revealed a carry-over effect of positive mass-mediated contact with asylum seekers in Europe on attitudes toward asylum seekers in Israel; that is, the more frequently Israeli Jews consumed positive stories about asylum seekers in Europe, the more positive their attitudes toward the local minority-asylum seekers in Israel-became. We may ...
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... During the COVID-19 pandemic, interpersonal contact in general and intergroup contact in particular was reduced (Meleady et al., 2021), making massmedia a more relevant source of information about outgroups. Whereas previous research documented that direct positive contact is usually more frequent than direct negative contact (Graf et al., 2014), this ratio is mostly reversed in the case of mass mediated contact, with negative content prevailing over positive content especially in the case of the news (in postconflict societies: Rupar et al., 2022;with respect to immigrants: Visintin et al., 2017). ...
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Three studies examined the effect of nouns and adjectives for designations of nationality on intergroup bias. In Study 1, participants (N = 237) evaluated group artifacts whose authors’ nationality was labeled with nouns or adjectives. Use of nouns enhanced in-group favoritism, manifested as a preference of the in-group artifact. Study 2 (N = 431) tested the effect of nouns and adjectives on attitudes toward the in-group and out-group focusing on the moderating role of in-group identification. Use of nouns led to a stronger relative preference of the in-group, pronounced especially in low identified group members. Study 3 (N = 979) examined the effect of nouns and adjectives in a more applied survey setting. Intergroup bias concerning material restitution for confiscated property was stronger when the ethnicity of the former owners was labeled with nouns. The article emphasizes that subtle variation in language use has a consistent impact on intergroup evaluation.
Article
After intergroup conflicts end, beliefs about past suffering of the ingroup compared to an outgroup influence relations between former adversaries. In Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina, we simultaneously examined the effects of inclusive victimhood (i.e., a belief that both the ingroup and a former adversary suffered similarly) and competitive victimhood (i.e., a belief that the ingroup suffered more than a former adversary) on willingness to engage in contact with a former adversary, a precursor of positive changes in postconflict societies. In one correlational (nAlbanians = 159; nCroats = 227) and two experimental studies (NAlbanians = 161; NCroats = 341, preregistered), inclusive victimhood was linked to higher willingness to engage in contact with former adversaries through higher empathy (Studies 1 to 3) and trust (Studies 1 and 2). In contrast, competitive victimhood was associated with lower willingness to engage in contact through lower empathy (Study 1) and trust (Studies 1 and 3). We discuss the practical implications of our findings for interventions in postconflict societies.
Book
On February 17, 2008, Kosovo declared its independence, becoming the seventh state to emerge from the break-up of the former Yugoslavia. A tiny country of just two million people, 90% of whom are ethnic Albanians, Kosovo is central - geographically, historically, and politically - to the future of the Western Balkans and, in turn, its potential future within the European Union. But the fate of both Kosovo, condemned by Serbian leaders as a “fake state” and the region as a whole, remains uncertain. In Kosovo: What Everyone Needs to Know, Tim Judah provides a straight-forward guide to the complicated place that is Kosovo. Judah, who has spent years covering the region, offers succinct, penetrating answers to a wide range of questions: Why is Kosovo important? Who are the Albanians? Who are the Serbs? Why is Kosovo so important to Serbs? What role does Kosovo play in the region and in the world? Judah reveals how things stand now and presents the history and geopolitical dynamics that have led to it. The most important of these is the question of the right to self-determination, invoked by the Kosovo Albanians, as opposed to right of territorial integrity invoked by the Serbs. For many Serbs, Kosovo's declaration of independence and subsequent recognition has been traumatic, a savage blow to national pride. Albanians, on the other hand, believe their independence rights an historical wrong: the Serbian conquest (Serbs say “liberation”) of Kosovo in 1912. For anyone wishing to understand both the history and possible future of Kosovo at this pivotal moment in its history, this book offers a wealth of insight and information in a uniquely accessible format.
Conference Paper
The role of mass media in inciting and exacerbating intergroup conflicts is well documented. However, there is still lack of evidence how mass media affects intergroup relations in the aftermath of an intergroup conflict. We focused on Croats (N = 278) and Bosniaks (N = 267) who engaged in mutual violence during the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina in the 90s. We examined the relationship between exposure to ingroup media (media in national language) and outgroup media (media in other languages) and two reconciliatory acts – forgiveness to the outgroup and support for ingroup apology to the outgroup. Media exposure was not directly associated with either of the two reconciliatory acts. Notwithstanding, media exposure was indirectly linked to both outgroup forgiveness and support for ingroup apology through the perception of ingroup victimhood. Greater exposure to ingroup media was associated with higher perception of ingroup victimhood that was related to lower support for outgroup forgiveness and ingroup apology. Reversely, greater exposure to outgroup media was associated with lower perception of ingroup victimhood that was linked to higher support for outgroup forgiveness and ingroup apology. Our findings extend the traditional view of media as deteriorating intergroup relations and contribute to a more nuanced understanding of the role of mass media as a tool for intergroup reconciliation in post-conflict societies.
Article
In a society burdened with the most severe type of intergroup conflict, we examined the association between willingness to reconcile with former adversary, intergroup contact with, and perceived threat from former adversary. We focused on three reconciliatory acts—forgiveness to the outgroup, support for ingroup apology and support for financial compensation to the outgroup. We included different forms of positive and negative intergroup contact—direct and indirect (extended and mass‐mediated). In the link between contact and reconciliation, we tested the mediating role of two types of intergroup threat—realistic and symbolic. The sample comprised Bosniaks (N = 267) and Croats (N = 278) from Bosnia and Herzegovina. In both samples, reconciliation associated with indirect forms of intergroup contact even when controlling for its link with direct contact. This indicates the potential of indirect contact to promote reconciliation in the lack of direct contact, characteristic for segregated post‐conflict societies. Symbolic threat mediated the relationship between intergroup contact and symbolic forms of reconciliation—forgiveness and support for ingroup apology. Realistic threat mediated the link between intergroup contact and a more tangible form of reconciliation—support for financial compensation. This highlights the importance of considering different types intergroup threat when targeting distinct reconciliatory acts. Our results suggest that practitioners promoting reconciliation in post‐conflict societies need to implement different means when tailoring interventions that should enhance different sides of peace‐making process.
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This study explored the relationship between exposure to television programs featuring gay male characters and homonegativity in a diverse adult sample. Specifically, this relationship was examined at both the program and character level. Participants (N = 120) responded to an online survey that asked about exposure to television shows known to feature gay male characters that aired between 2000 and 2015. Next, participants recalled specific characters from these programs before reporting their homonegative attitudes and beliefs. Results revealed that both viewing programs featuring gay male characters and recall of specific gay male characters decreased their negative attitudes toward gay men in society, irrespective of individual difference factors (e.g., religiosity, gender, close interpersonal contact with gay men). Results are discussed in terms of mediated intergroup contact theory.
Article
There are a large number of language-related regulations (both prescriptive and proscriptive) that affect the shape of the broadcasting media and therefore have an impact on the life of persons belonging to minorities. Of course, language has been and remains an important instrument in State-building and maintenance. In this context, requirements have also been put in place to accommodate national minorities. In some settings, there is legislation to assure availability of programming in minority languages.1 Language rules have also been manipulated for restrictive, sometimes punitive ends. A language can become or be made a focus of loyalty for a minority community that thinks itself suppressed, persecuted, or subjected to discrimination. Regulations relating to broadcasting may make language a target for attack or suppression if the authorities associate it with what they consider a disaffected or secessionist group or even just a culturally inferior one. In light of such concerns, a crosscountry study was necessary to establish and analyse the existing practice of language regulations used by States to advance or restrict certain groups, as well as for the identification and possible development of best practices in language regulation in the broadcast media. This study reports on the basic regulations of minority-language related broadcasting of the 55 participating States of the OSCE. Specifically, the study surveys State practice with regard to: (1) whether there are any stipulated quotas on the use of language as a vehicle of broadcasting (both for publicly- and privately-owned and run broadcasters); and (2) whether there is any accommodation (such as, specifically allotted time, bands, financial support) for minority-language broadcasting. The OSCE High Commissioner on National Minorities (HCNM) commissioned this study because of his realisation that a) a key marker of identity is language and b) how States affect or regulate the use of language or languages has significant implications for the exercise of rights. States, through regulation, can strengthen or weaken languages and thereby, at times, strengthen or weaken the position of national minorities. In the information age, a major theatre where this takes place is in the structure of media in various societies and that is the focus of this study. Thus, the present exercise seeks to identify broad trends and indicate the different approaches for each of these.
Article
This study extends the boundary conditions of mediated contact theory by (a) differentiating between mediated contact quantity and quality, (b) examining whether mediated contact exerts effects above and beyond direct contact, and (c) offering causal and generalizable evidence on the effects of exposure to numerous individual outgroup members in news media. We match individual-level data from a representative panel survey with data on the amount of coverage about members from two outgroups and with the results from validated sentiment analysis. Mediated contact, and especially its quantity, improved outgroup attitudes independently of direct contact. These findings emerged for both outgroups and across two outcome measures.
Article
Two correlational studies investigated the associations between different forms of intergroup contact, on the one hand, and Italians’ prejudice and humanity attributions toward immigrants in Italy, on the other. Study 1 examined the effects of direct contact, extended contact and parasocial contact through mass-media, assessing separately contact through TV news and newspapers and contact through entertainment programs. Study 2 analyzed the distinct effects of positive and negative episodes of the contact forms considered in Study 1. Across the studies, we tested the mediational role of intergroup anxiety, empathy, and trust. Overall, results showed the importance of taking into account different forms of contact and considering the emotional processes during contact experiences to understand intergroup attitudes.
Article
Emotion can result from interpreting group actions as reflecting on the self due to an association between the two. This volume considers the nature of collective guilt, the antecedent conditions necessary for it to be experienced, how it can be measured, as well as how collective guilt differs from other group based emotions. Research from Australia, Canada, Germany, Israel, the Netherlands, Northern Ireland, and the USA addresses critical questions concerning the who, when, and why of the experience of collective guilt. The political implications of collective guilt and forgiveness for the past are considered, and how those might depend on the national context. How collective guilt can be harnessed and used to create a more peaceful future for groups with a history of violence between then is emphasized.
Chapter
In this chapter we focus on the media portrayal content of a specific ­traumatic event and journalists’ discourse about it in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BIH). Despite the growing role and authority of journalists in shaping our understanding of collective pasts, the possible role of journalists as active agents in contributing to heightening tensions has been marginalized. Analyzing media texts can demonstrate how a “specific, limited truth” about the start of war in BIH is being selected, instrumentalized, and legitimized in the public awareness. Focus on journalists’ perceptions of war and positive post-violence offers an understanding of different views about the start of the war, and guilt. This is why the basic research questions here deal with how journalists in BIH represent the violent past. Specifically, how do they cover a specific traumatic event and what are their perceptions about possibilities of realizing positive post-violence? Research on post-conflict processes looks at the ways in which people attempt to recreate their social fabric in ways appropriated to the changes in their social environment. Thus, the larger question that we are interested in here is whether journalists, like storytellers, frame their stories according to their ethnical belonging and the cultural environment? Furthermore, what media conditions might make possible positive post-violence after violent conflict?
Article
This chapter will explore the impact of collective violence on victims and, to some degree, on perpetrators as well. It will consider the role of healing, forgiveness, and reconciliation in building a better future in societies in which such violence had taken place. As a primary example, the chapter will focus on Rwanda, where the authors have been conducting a project on healing, forgiveness, and reconciliation. Healing, reconciliation, and forgiveness are deeply interrelated. Healing and reconciliation help break cycles of violence and enhance the capacity of traumatized people for psychological well-being. Forgiving is essential for reconciliation to take place and both arise from and contribute to healing. overview: the need to heal, forgive, and reconcile Victimization of one group by another that leads to great suffering by a group has intense and long-lasting impact. Members of the victim group feel diminished, vulnerable. They see the world as a dangerous place. They tend to see other people, especially outside groups and their members, as hostile. Their capacity to live life well, to be happy, is diminished. When the group is in conflict with another group, when it is threatened, its members are less able to see the other's point of view, to consider the other's needs. The group is more likely to strike out, in the belief that it is defending itself. However, it may actually become a perpetrator of violence against others. © Cambridge University Press 2003 and Cambridge University Press, 2010.
Article
Among minority members, positive contact with the majority was previously found to improve not only the attitudes toward the majority but also the attitudes toward minority outgroups (the secondary transfer effect; STE). However, the roles of negative intergroup contact and minority groups’ social status in the STE have not been yet examined. Therefore, in the present study, we investigated the association between both positive and negative contact with the national majority group (Finns) and mutual attitudes among high-status Estonian (n = 171) and low-status Russian (n = 180) immigrants in Finland. Two mediators of the STE were tested: attitudes toward the majority (attitude generalization) and public collective self-esteem (diagonal hostility). While positive and negative STEs emerging via attitude generalization were expected to occur among both immigrant groups, the mediating effect of public collective self-esteem was assumed only for members of the low-status group. In both immigrant groups, the relationship between positive contact with the majority group and attitudes toward the other immigrant group was positive and indirect through more favorable attitudes toward majority group members. The same mechanism characterized negative contact, where the indirect effect was mediated by less positive attitudes toward Finns. As predicted, public collective self-esteem mediated the effects of positive and negative contact with majority group members on attitudes toward the other minority only among low-status Russian immigrants. The results call for the acknowledgement of different mechanisms explaining the STE among minority groups enjoying different social statuses in host society.
Article
This book describes the origins or influences leading to genocide, violent conflict, and terrorism. It identifies principles and practices of prevention, and of reconciliation between groups after violence, or before violence thereby to prevent violence. It uses both past cases such as the Holocaust, and contemporary ones such as Rwanda, the Congo, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, contemporary terrorism, and the relations between the Dutch and Muslim minorities, which also has relevance to other European countries, as examples. The book draws on work on all these issues, as well as on research in genocide studies, the study of conflict and of terrorism, and psychological research on group relations. It also describes the work conducted in real world settings, such as with promoting reconciliation in Rwanda, Burundi, and the Congo. The book considers what needs to be done to prevent impending or stop ongoing violence. It emphasizes early prevention, when violence generating conditions are present and a psychological and social evolution toward violence has begun, but not yet immediate danger of intense violence. The book considers the role of difficult social or life conditions, repression, culture, the institutions or structure of society, the psychology of individuals and groups, and the behavior of witnesses or bystanders within and outside societies. It emphasizes psychological processes, such as differentiation between us and them and devaluation of the "other", past victimization and psychological woundedness, the power of ideas, and people's commitment to destructive ideologies. It considers humanizing the other, healing from past victimization, the creation of constructive ideologies and groups, and how these help people develop cultures and institutions that make violence less likely. The book asks what needs to be accomplished to prevent violence, how it can be done, and who can do it. It aims to promote knowledge, understanding, and "active bystandership" by leaders and government officials, members of the media and citizens to prevent violence and create harmonious societies.
Chapter
This chapter highlights three stepping stones for success in interventions for violent intergroup conflicts: investigating when and how intergroup contact results in reduced prejudice and improved intergroup relations; promoting intergroup forgiveness to replace bitterness and vengeance; and building trust across the sectarian divide. It highlights some of the contributions of social psychology to building the postconflict society envisaged by the Belfast Agreement. The chapter begins by reviewing the historical and social background to the political violence in Northern Ireland. It considers the segregated nature of society in Northern Ireland, and highlights intergroup contact as a means to overcome the problems of segregation. It then considers the neglected topic of forgiveness, arguing that a distinct form of intergroup forgiveness is relevant in cases of intergroup conflict.
Article
Although typically conceptualized as a reconciliation outcome, we propose that intergroup forgiveness can also be construed as a decision or course of action that advances justice and positive intergroup sentiments among members of the victimized group. However, the process through which this occurs depends on the perceived differentiation between the groups. Following intergroup transgressions staged in the laboratory (Study 1) or reported in news article scenarios (Study 2), participants whose victimized ingroup expressed forgiveness perceived less injustice than those whose group did not forgive, which indirectly improved intergroup sentiments. Among high ingroup identifiers and in victim groups with low relative status (i.e., more salient intergroup boundaries), forgiveness diminished feelings of injustice by reducing the perceived threat to the ingroup’s status/power. In contrast, among low ingroup identifiers and in groups with high relative status, forgiveness diminished feelings of injustice by reducing the perceived threat to collectively shared values.
Article
Recovery from the profound negative psychological and spiritual effects of genocide is essential for individuals to live fulfilling lives, engage in reconciliation, and prevent future violence. This article discusses community approaches to trauma recovery that focus on individuals within their social context. It briefly identifies common psychological problems that follow genocide. It then presents constructivist self development theory (CSDT) as a foundation for understanding these effects and the RICH (Respect, Information, Connection, and Hope) framework, based in CSDT, for designing and assessing the effects of post-genocide psychosocial interventions. The article reviews three approaches to collective recovery: a multifamily group approach, a psychoeducational program focused on youth, and a public education program aimed to promote trauma recovery and prevent future violence. The RICH framework is applied to each approach.
Article
Postwar Polish−Jewish relations are heavily affected by divergent narratives about the Holocaust. Debates about the role of Poles as passive bystanders or perpetrators during the Holocaust have deeply influenced mutual perceptions of Poles and Jews. Previous research has shown that historical issues raised during Polish−Jewish encounters inhibit positive consequences of intergroup contact, mostly due to frustrated emotional needs related to past genocide. The aim of the present intervention was to reconcile young Poles and Israelis by presenting narratives that could change stereotypical thinking about the past. Our results indicate that the narratives of historical rescuers of Jews during WWII allowed overcoming the negative impact of the past on intergroup contact by fulfilling frustrated needs for acceptance among Polish participants. The article discusses the potential role of the heroic helpers’ narrative for reconciliation after mass violence, as it may prevent entitative categorizations of groups as victims, perpetrators, and bystanders.
Article
This study aims to test whether exposure to certain newspapers leads people to perceive ethnic minorities as more threatening. Building on cultivation theory as developed by Gerbner, this study extends his theory by looking at the possible effects of exposure to newspapers. Results indicate that exposure to a newspaper characterized by negative reporting about ethnic crime leads people to perceive ethnic minorities as more of a threat than exposure to other newspapers does.
Chapter
In this chapter, we will provide an extensive review of the sparse literature on the secondary transfer effect. We start our discussion with a brief exposition of Allport’s (1954) contact hypothesis, after which we discuss early research on secondary transfer effects and then review more recent research on this topic. Next, we will turn our attention to the two main purported mediating processes, attitude generalization and deprovincialization, after which we will discuss a third, less tested mediator, intergroup empathy. We then review possible moderators of the link between primary outgroup contact and secondary outgroup attitude as well as the link between primary and secondary outgroup attitudes. Lastly, we turn our attention to some limitations of extant research on the secondary transfer effect, and then suggest some issues for future research in this domain.
Article
We show that the frequency of bilateral militarized conflicts between independent states has indeed been rising steadily over the last century. We show that this finding is not driven by any selection bias in our data but a fact that needs to be explained. Finally we highlight our main contribution, namely that state formation and the capacity to fight are at the heart of the observed upward trend in conflicts.