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Preparing for the Bursting of the Psychedelic Hype Bubble
Psychedelic research currently appears to be trapped
in a hype bubble driven largely by media and industry
interests. We believe that it wouldbenef it the field of psy-
chedelic research if this bubble were to be systemati-
cally deflated by researchers and clinicians using good
science communication practices.
The term bubble is often applied to something of
value that has become overvalued in popular percep-
tion. As a society, weare familiar with the term as it has
been applied to, for example, the internet (the dot-
com bubble of the 1990s) and the value of housing (the
housing bubble of the early 2000s). In terms of psyche-
delics, headlines have turned from presenting alarmist,
extremely negative views of the drugs (approximately
1960s to 2000s) to acknowledging their positive po-
tential (2006 to the present). However, in the past few
years, a disturbingly large number of articles have touted
psychedelics as a cure or miracle drug as well as men-
tioned the investment potential of psychedelics reach-
ing billions of dollars. These extreme shifts in percep-
tion can create impediments to rigorous science and
reasonable clinical applications.
State of the Evidence
The subject of treatments using psychedelics asks of our
society something that is difficult to do well: maintain a
degree of nuance, critical thinking, and grounding in the
scientific evidence. In our social media–influenced cul-
ture, it seems easy to fall into extreme views. However,
when it comes to psychedelics, the scientific data ap-
pear to prove wrong superenthusiasts and super-
skeptics alike.
The superenthusiasts are incorrect in believing that
psychedelics pose no risks because those risks are well
established.
1
Furthermore, the treatment potential of
psychedelics is real but is less impressive than ex-
pected, as shown in a recent trial comparing psilocybin
with a gold-standard treatment of depression.
2
On the
other hand, the skeptics are incorrect in thinking that the
short-term subjective effects of psychedelics consist of
a psychoticlike state of delirium; well-replicated find-
ings have shown these effects to be challenging yet posi-
tive and highly meaningful, with persisting favorableef-
fects for most people.
3,4
Finally, the therapeutic potential
of psychedelics is not merely hypothetical but has been
supported by the results of several clinical trials.
2,5-7
The Hype Cycle
Although the future is unknown, the Gartner Hype Cycle
provides an illustration of what we might reasonably
forecast about public perceptions of psychedelics
(Figure). The cycle begins with a novel and promising
technological trigger that attracts substantial attention—
examples from psychiatry include electroconvulsive
therapy and risk gene identification.
In such cases, the first step is a rapid increase in ex-
treme visibility and expectations. This peak of inflated
expectations can be considered a bubble, and we be-
lieve that psychedelics are currently cresting this peak.
After the peak comes an equally steep decline in which
highly inflated expectations are dashed. Formerly overly
positive press reports may become overly negative. Af-
ter the bottom of the trough, well-calibrated assess-
ments of the state of the evidence may begin to occur.
Finally, the process reaches the plateau of productivity,
which is where we hope the field of psychedelics settles
because it is the social context in which rigorous re-
search and responsible clinical applications flourish most
effectively.
If perceptions of psychedelic science shift accord-
ing to this process, then we are fast approaching a dan-
gerous moment for the research field. The potential for
blowback is real; we saw this shift in the 1960s for psy-
chedelics. Many people forget that there were years of
glowing reviews in the 1950s and 1960s before the press
turned alarmist and a government clampdown pre-
vented research progress for decades.
8
It is also worth remembering that psychedelic treat-
ments present real risks similar to virtually any effec-
tive treatment. These risks increase in recreational set-
tings and include confusional states, abuse potential, and
precipitation of enduring psychiatric conditions, par-
ticularly in persons with preexisting vulnerabilities (eg,
psychotic disorders). Unfortunately, it is a matter of
when, not if,a patient or par ticipant will be harmed, and
we need to do everything possible to prevent such trag-
edies. However, although some people are unfortu-
nately harmed by any number of effective treatments,
the visibility of psychedelic use means that such cases
will be widely reported, often without the context of how
clinical trials contribute to scientific progress.
Ethical Obligation for Science Communications
Regardless of how public perceptions of psychedelics
change, researchers and clinicians have an obligation to
counter extreme statements when they spot them.
Headlines that fall into the category of superenthusiast
(eg, wonder drug) or superskeptic (eg, madness) should
be openly disputed.
Overly hyped claims fall into 2 main categories:
clinical and social. Clinically, psychedelics are not a
cure for mental disorders. We have not found evi-
dence for this claim, and it increases the risk of
inflated patient expectations. Socially, psychedelics
do not solve major issues such as racism and war. Such
claims risk trivializing the complexities of the issues
and resources needed to make real progress. That
said, we need to be on guard for equally extreme
negative claims that are likely just over the horizon.
After all, we have evidence-based reasons to believe
VIEWPOINT
David B. Yaden,PhD
Department of
Psychiatry and
Behavioral Sciences,
Johns Hopkins
University School of
Medicine, Baltimore,
Maryland; and Center
for Psychedelic and
Consciousness
Research, Johns
Hopkins University
School of Medicine,
Baltimore, Maryland.
James B. Potash, MD
Department of
Psychiatry and
Behavioral Sciences,
Johns Hopkins
University School of
Medicine, Baltimore,
Maryland.
Roland R. Griffiths,
PhD
Department of
Psychiatry and
Behavioral Sciences,
Johns Hopkins
University School of
Medicine, Baltimore,
Maryland; and Center
for Psychedelic and
Consciousness
Research, Johns
Hopkins University
School of Medicine,
Baltimore, Maryland.
Corresponding
Author: Roland R.
Griffiths, PhD, Center
for Psychedelic and
Consciousness
Research, Department
of Psychiatry and
Behavioral Sciences,
Johns Hopkins
University School of
Medicine, 5510 Nathan
Shock Dr, Baltimore,
MD 21224 (rgriff@
jhmi.edu).
Opinion
jamapsychiatry.com (Reprinted) JAMA Psychiatry Published online August 31, 2022 E1
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that psychedelics show promise for treating mental disorders,
enhancing well-being, and advancing the study of psychological
and neurobiological processes.
2-7,9,10
Conclusions
Across the field of psychedelic research to date, promising data sug-
gest that further studies are needed. Researchers should pursue
mechanistic studies that may shed light on biological underpin-
nings and psychotherapeutic processes responsible for the thera-
peutic effects of psychedelics. Such studies can help to refine treat-
ment approaches and achieve better target engagement. As
scientists and clinicians, we have an ethical mandate to dispute claims
not supported by available evidence. We encourage our colleagues
to help deflate the psychedelic hype bubble in a measured way so
that we can get on with the hard work of more precisely determin-
ing the risks and benefits of psychedelics.
ARTICLE INFORMATION
Published Online: August 31, 2022.
doi:10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2022.2546
Conflict of Interest Disclosures: Drs Yaden and
Griffiths reported receiving support through the
Johns Hopkins Center for Psychedelic and
Consciousness Research (CPCR) provided by Tim
Ferriss, Matt Mullenweg, Blake Mycoskie, Craig
Nerenberg, and The Steven and Alexandra Cohen
Foundation. Dr Griffiths also reported receiving
grants for research support from the Riverstyx
Foundation, the National Institute on Drug Abuse,
and a crowd-sourced funding campaign organized
by Tim Ferriss; personal fees from and serving on
the board of directors of the Heffter Research
Institute outside the submitted work; and serving
as site principal investigator for a multisite trial of
psilocybin-facilitated treatment of major depressive
disorder sponsored by the Usona Institute.
No other disclosures were reported.
Additional Contributions: We thank Mary Yaden,
MD, chief resident in Psychiatry at the Perelman
School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, for
her feedback.
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Figure. The Hype Cycle
Peak of inflated expectations
Plateau of productivity
Slope of enlightenment
Trough of disillusionment
Technology trigger Time
Visibility
Therapeutic applications of
psychedelics appear to follow the
general trajectory of other highly
visible technologies. Concept from
Gartner, Inc. Image is licensed under
Creative Commons. Courtesy of
Jeremy Kemp.
Opinion Viewpoint
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