URBANISATION AND DISASTER RISKS IN THE HIMALAYA

Abstract

Haphazard urban expansion and poorly planned infrastructure development have increased and intensified disaster risks in the geologically fragile Himalaya. Against this backdrop, consolidating and interpreting the findings from four articles included in this special issue on “urbanisation and disaster risk in the Himalaya”, this paper analyses the interrelation between urbanisation and disaster risk in rapidly urbanising areas of Nepal Himalaya. The key findings that we pull together from the papers are: (1) large-scale construction activities, including the real estate boom in peri-urban Nepal, increasingly delink traditional communities from their land and culture; (2) disconnected policies and contradicting implementation in the informal to formal transitions have sustained informality and deepened risk in urban Nepal; (3) institutional inertia sustains poor coordination between stakeholders in relation to knowledge sharing, technology and resources which hinder proactive disaster management at the community level; and (4) operational and knowledge gaps emerge from failures to delineate authority, responsibility and accountability between concerned institutions, and weak institutional capacity between agencies, impeding the adoption of early warning and action system in Nepal. Based on these findings, we conclude that while the political restructuring and decentralisation of the local governments have provided authorities with the legitimacy to devise disaster management policies, enhancing overall institutional capability in terms of access to and mobilisation of knowledge, technologies and resources is needed to reduce disaster risks in the Himalaya.

Full text

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Poudel et al. Urbanisation and disaster risks in the Himalaya
EDITORIAL: URBANISATION AND DISASTER RISKS IN THE HIMALAYA
DilliP.Poudel1*,AnushiyaShrestha1,DilKhatri1,JonathanEnsor2
ABSTRACT
Haphazardurbanexpansionandpoorlyplannedinfrastructuredevelopmenthaveincreasedand
intensieddisasterrisksinthegeologicallyfragileHimalaya.Againstthisbackdrop,consolidang
andinterprengthendingsfromfourarclesincludedinthisspecialissueon“urbanisaonand
disaster risk in the Himalaya”, this paper analyses the interrelaon between urbanisaon and
disasterriskinrapidlyurbanisingareasofNepalHimalaya.Thekeyndingsthatwepulltogether
from the papers are: (1) large-scale construcon acvies, including the real estate boom in
peri-urban Nepal, increasingly delink tradional communies from their land and culture; (2)
disconnectedpoliciesandcontradicngimplementaonintheinformaltoformaltransionshave
sustained informality and deepened risk in urban Nepal; (3) instuonal inera sustains poor
coordinaonbetweenstakeholdersinrelaontoknowledgesharing,technologyand resources
whichhinder proacvedisastermanagementat the community level; and(4) operaonaland
knowledge gaps emerge from failures to delineate authority, responsibility and accountability
betweenconcernedinstuons,andweakinstuonalcapacitybetweenagencies,impedingthe
adopon of early warning and acon system in Nepal. Based on these ndings, we conclude
thatwhilethepolicalrestructuringanddecentralisaonofthelocalgovernmentshaveprovided
authories with the legimacy to devise disaster management policies, enhancing overall
instuonal capability in terms of access to and mobilisaon of knowledge, technologies and
resourcesisneededtoreducedisasterrisksintheHimalaya.
Keywords: early-warningand acon; haphazardurbanisaon; Himalayandisaster;instuonal
limit;neoliberalurbanism;urbaninformality
1SouthasiaInstuteofAdvancedStudies(SIAS),Nepal
2UniversityofYork(UoY)andStockholmnEnvironmentInstute(SEI),UK
*Correspondingemail:dilli.poudel@hotmail.com
NEw
ANgLE
Nepal Journal of
Social Science
and Public Policy
Published by SIAS
Available at newangle.sias-southasia.org
2021, Vol. 7 ( 1 ), pp.1-10
DOI: hps://doi.org/10.53037/na.v7i1.74
© Poudel et al., 2021

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New Angle: Nepal Journal of Social Science and Public Policy Vol. 7 ( 1 ), 2021
1. INTRODUCTION
The Himalaya is always in a process of geomorphological changes with acve geology and
dynamicgeography(Panday,1984; Rusk etal.,2022; WymannVonDachet al., 2017).Studies,
however, suggestthat the recentanthropogenicintervenonsin theHimalayadriven byrapid
buthaphazardurbanisaonanduncontrolledconstruconalacvies (Gurung,2021;Kargelet
al.,2016;Rimaletal.,2020)haveoverlooked“mountainspecicies”i.e.inaccessibility,fragility,
marginalityandheterogeneity(seeJodha,1992;WymannVonDachetal.,2017;Anbalagan,1993).
Thefragilegeophysicalcondionscoupledwithhaphazardlygrowingurbanisaonandrampant
construconacviesinmountaingeographyhavetriggeredmul-hazards3(e.g.,landslide,ood)
andsimultaneouslyelevatedexposureoftheHimalayandwellerstotheriskofdisasters(Tiwari
etal.,2018;Walker,2011;Westeretal., 2019;Poudeletal.,2021;Rusketal.,2022)whichare
likelytointensifyinthefuture(Mestaetal.,2022;Westeretal.,2019).IntheNepalHimalaya,an
averageof500naturalandnon-naturalhazardsoccurannuallywhichonanaveragekill900and
aectaround6,40,000peopleeveryyear(NPC,2019).
Figure 1: Disaster events and casuales in Nepal Himalaya
(Sources BIPAD portal(bipadportal.gov.np/)andUNDRRDesInventar(www.desinventar.net/)
Note:No.ofincidentsincludesbothnaturalandnon-naturalhazards
Ofthe total240millioninhabitantsoftheHimalayancountries(alsocalledHinduKushregion),
around30 - 50% ofthetotalpopulaonliveinurbancentres(Singhetal.,2019;Westeretal.,
2019),andtheurbanisaonisgrowing(UNDESA,2014;Westeretal.,2019).InNepal,contributed
3AccordingtoUNDRR,thetermmul-hazard,whichincludesbiological,environmental,geological,hydrometeorologicalandtechnologicalpro-
cessesandphenomena,refers(1)theseleconofmulplemajorhazardsthatthecountryfaces,and(2)thespeciccontextswherehazardous
eventsmayoccursimultaneously,cascadinglyorcumulavelyoverme,andtakingintoaccountthepotenalinterrelatedeects(www.undrr.
org/terminology/hazard).Itposesarangeofaddionalchallengesduetothedieringcharacteriscsofprocesses,andthegoalofmul-hazard
assessmentistoreducetheriskofdisasters(Kappesetal.,2012).

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Poudel et al. Urbanisation and disaster risks in the Himalaya
primarilyby the ruraltourban migraon,urbanpopulaon increased atan annual averageof
about six percent between 1970s and 2013 (Gabriela, 2013). The recent staggering increase
in the urban populaon of the country from 17% in 2013 to 40% in 2014/15, and to 66%in
2021is(seegure2),however,alsodrivenbythepolico-administraverestructuringaerthe
federalismin2008anddesignangruralareasasmunicipalies4(Timsinaetal.,2020;Ishaque
etal.,2017).Withrapidurbanisaon,theinformalpopulaonlivinginslumsandriverbankshave
alsosubstanallyincreasedduringthelasttwodecades(Sengupta,2011;K.C.andPahari,2011;
Shresthaetal.,2021, Shresthaetal.,2020).Andexpandingisthespectrumofrisk thatimpact
everydaylivesinurbanNepal(Ruszczyk,2018).Therapidgrowthinurbanpopulaonintandem
withgrowingurbanslumdwellersandmul-hazardriskdemandstudyonthenuancesofurban
disastersintheregion.
Figure 2: Urbanisaon trend in Nepal (Source: Central Bureau of Stascs (CBS), (cbs.gov.np)
Manyoftherecenturbangovernanceiniavesandinfrastructuredevelopmentacvies(ledby
bothgovernmentaland non-governmentalorganisaons)inNepalhaveincreasinglypriorised
improveddisastermanagementindevisingandimplemenngprojects,plans,policies(Poudeland
Blackburn,2020).However, not allurbandwellershavereceivedequalaenon,leavingsome
morevulnerablethanothers(BhaaraiandConway,2010;Mestaetal.,2022).Giventhenature
of Himalayan people’s exposure to mul-hazard risks, understanding diverse experiences and
perceponsofrisks,rootcausesofrisks(biophysical,socio-technicalandpolical-instuonal),
andthe underlying narravesthatinform dierenal responses and abilies to dealwith and
reducesuchrisks arecrucial.Such scrunycanhelp inembracinga widerperspecveon risk,
and enhancing the risk management abilies, including those of marginalised dwellers and
4InNepal,municipaliesareconsideredasurbanareas.Presently,Nepalhas293municipalies,includingsixmetropolitanand11sub-metro-
politancies(hps://www.mofaga.gov.np/).

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New Angle: Nepal Journal of Social Science and Public Policy Vol. 7 ( 1 ), 2021
theirrepresentaves,therebysengthe groundformoreequitableandresilientcies(Man
et al., 2018; Ruszczyk, 2018). Furthermore, such nuanced interpretaons help to expose how
risk management instuons and actors interact, and how urban governance assemblages
explicitlyorimplicitlypriorisedevelopmentacviesinmul-hazardscontexts.Exploringlocal
risks,urbandwellers’needs,narraves,instuons,andpracceswilltherefore,notonlybean
instrumenttoco-produceknowledgeonmul-hazardriskbutalsoinformrelatedstakeholdersto
adoptinnovavepolicysoluonstoaddressexisngandavertpotenalhazardsanddisastersin
thefuture.
Urbangovernance,parcularlyin thenewlydeclaredurban areas,frequentlylackinstuonal
capacity,illustratedbyalackofauthority,knowledgeandaccesstoresources(Khatrietal.,2022),
parcularly in relaon to the disaster preparedness, exposing dwellers to mul-hazard risks
(Aryal,2014).Addionally,theexposuretomul-hazardriskandeectsofdisastersonresidents
vary based on class, caste/ethnicity, gender which is co-shaped by social sgma and uneven
capabiliestoaccessandinuencethedisastermanagementpoliciesandpraxisinthecountry.
Understandingdisasterriskandsocialvulnerabilitycan,therefore,beapragmacentrypointto
foreseesaferfuturecies.Againstthisbackdrop,throughthisspecialissueentled“Urbanisaon
andDisasterRisksintheHimalaya”,wetrytounderstandhowhaphazardurbanisaonincreases
disasterriskintheHimalaya.Specically,weconsolidateknowledgeonurbanisaonandurban
policies aecng formal and informal populaons of urban core and peripheries, the extent
to which local instuons can deal with local hazards, exploring ‘instuonal limits’, and the
importanceofearlywarningsystemtoreducedisasterrisk.Theanalysisanddebatesinthisissue
willhelpimproveourunderstandingontheinterlinkedprocessesthatgeneraterisks,dierenate
experiencesofrisksandriskreduconstrategies,contributetoenhancingknowledgeondisaster
governance, and help diverse stakeholders- parcularly state actors - to undertake necessary
stepstoplanforandreducetherisksexperiencedinpresentandfuturecies.
Thisspecialissuecompilesfourempiricallygroundedandtheorecallyinformedpapers.Inthe
rst paper, Timsina et al. analyse the polical economy of urban change in KathmanduValley
(KV).Specically,authorsexaminethecontradiconsandcontestaonsbroughtbythecentrally
planneddevelopmentandconstruconalprojectsasapartofurbanisaonprocessinKhokana,
a suburb located in the southern part of Lalitpur Metropolitan City (LMC) in KV. The massive
owofcapitalandlabourinthe1990sandduringandaertheMaoistemergency(1996-2006)
framedanenablingenvironmentforthecapitalinvestmentinland,housingandrealestatewhich
acceleratedtheconversionofproducveagriculturallandintobuiltupareasin KV,parcularly
in the periurban areas such as Khokana. Consequently, the rapid urbanisaon densies the
corecies andincreases an uncontrolled urbansprawl ofunplanned growthof built-upareas
in the periphery, which authors categorise as ‘haphazard urbanisaon’. The real estate boom
inducedmanyperiurban farmersto sell theirland, alienang themfromagriculturalacvies.
InKhokana,centralgovernment’siniaonofimplemenngseverallarge-scaleprojectssuchas
theFastTrackandOuterRingRoads,electricitytransmissionlines,andtheBagmaCorridorand

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Poudel et al. Urbanisation and disaster risks in the Himalaya
SmartCitydevelopmentwithlileornocommunityvoices,hasgeneratedsignicantcommunity
dissasfacon. These phenomena of urban change have brought tension and contradicons
in the communies in various forms, including protests against the public spaces captured by
thepowerfulindividuals,companies,andtheinfrastructuredevelopmentprojectimplemented
by the central government. Consequently, several community members consider themselves
alienatedfromtheirland,tradion,andculture.Authorsanalysesuchurbanisaonasaproduct
ofneoliberal urbanismbecause theywere drivenby theforces of marketand capitaland the
liberalpoliciesadoptedbythecountryaerthe1990s,whichfacilitatedinvestorstobuyahuge
chunkoflandforotherlandusepurposes.Althoughthepolicaleconomyofurbanchangehas
shiedurbanisaonfromcoretoperiphery,manyissuesidenedbythelocalcommunityremain
unresolved.Thus,inthecontextsofstaterestructuringandurbanisingNepaliruralsociees,the
Khokanacaseprovidesanimportantavenuetorethinkurbanisaonpoliciestoachieveinclusive
futurecies.
Inthesecondpaper,Shresthaetal.unfoldtheparadoxofprolongedurbaninformalityissuesand
associateddebatesinNepalbasedon theanalysesofurbaninformality-relatedformalpolicies,
literature, and media publicaons. The paper demonstrates that although there have been
progressiveandparadigmacshisingovernmentpoliciesinaddressingurbaninformalityissues,
policiesissuedbydierentgovernmentauthoriesaredisconnected.Thegovernmentdominantly
framesinformalselersasthe“encroachers”andlegalisaondenestheirselementasarisk.
Hence,formalpraccesoencontradictapparentlyprogressivepolicies,creangambiguityand,
paradoxically, generangnew risks(ofevicon) fortheinformalselersin urban sengs.The
authorsarguethatsuch(dis)conneconsbetweenpoliciesandpraccesandcontradiconswithin
policiessmulatetheselerstoseekpolicalprotecon-sustaininginformalityinNepalamid
therhetorical priority for informal toformaltransion. Inthese contexts,the authors suggest
thattheiniavestoseekapermanentsoluontoproliferangurbaninformalityshouldprevent
instuonalinconsistenciesandbuildontheco-learningprocessesthatenablethepercepons
andambionsofallthestakeholders,includingtheinformalselers-tobeexplored,understood
and reconciled. It is equally important that such iniaves should also pay aenon to the
underlyingsocial,economic,andpolicalfactorsthatinterlinkandsustaininformality.
Thethirdpaper,Ojhaetal.drawingonthecaseofalandslideatDhamilikuwavillageofRainas
Municipality(Lamjung district)and advancing theconcept of ‘instuonallimit’,examinesthe
extenttowhichlocalinstuonscandeliveradaptaonoutcomesintermsofprovidingresponses
totheclimate-induceddisasters.Theauthorsshowthelimits ofexisngpublicandcommunity
instuonstoaddressingclimate-relatedrisksandthevulnerabilityofpeopletodisasterrisks.As
thecasestudyshowed,thescaleandthenatureofriskposedbythelandslide,whichwastriggered
byariveroodbutalsolinkedtoanumberofsocialandenvironmentalfactors,wasbeyondthe
capacityofthelocalcommunityandaectedhouseholdstohandle.Whiletheaectedhouseholds
struggledtoadaptto the landslides,instuonsoperangatthreelevels– community,village
andthe district–delivered too lileto reduce andmanage the landsliderisk andits impacts.

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Whatisparcularlyworryingisthatdespiteradicalpolicsofinclusionanddemocracyspurred
bythecivilwarinNepal,theinstuonalresponseswereextremelylimitedforthepeopleinthe
lowerstrataofthesocialstructure.Theauthorsidenedatleastfourlimitsoflocalinstuons:
a) inera created by the social norms and structure embedded in the exisng instuons; b)
redundancywhereinconvenonalformalandinformalinstuonsarelessrelevanttotacklethe
newchallengesposedbyclimatechange;c)fragmentaonofinstuonaleortsinvolvingpoor
horizontal and vercal coordinaon among organisaons; and d) accountability lapses rooted
inthewiderpolicalsystem.Thiscasestudyrepornginstuonallimitcomesinstarkcontrast
tothehighlevelofexpectaonfromthenewlyinstutedlocalgovernments(municipalies)to
managedisasterrisks.Theauthorsarguethatthenoonof‘instuonallimit’canenhanceour
understandingofwhatinstuonscan(orcannot)deliverforeecvelocal responsetourban
disaster.Thesendingshavemajorimplicaonsfortheopmismplacedontheroleandcapacity
oflocalinstuonstoadapttoclimate-induceddisasterrisks.
Taking into account increasing frequency and severity of risk in urbanising Nepal, in the last
paper, Bhandari et al. discuss the importance of forecast-based ancipatory approaches for
eecvedisasterpreparednessandresponsesandreectonthechallengestoshithedisaster
managementapproachinNepalfrompost-eventrescueandrelieftoforecast-basedapproaches
andacons.Theirobservaons,arguments,andreeconsarebasedonthereviewofliterature
oninternaonalpraccesandapproachestoForecast-basedearlyAcon(FbA)andForecast-based
Financing(FbF),analysisofthe naonal policy documents,andinsightsfromtheirprofessional
engagementsin community-centredoodearlywarningsystemsinNepalandothercountries.
Theauthorspointtothelackofproperdelineaonofauthority,responsibilityandaccountability
betweendierentlevelsofthegovernmentsandlackofadequateinstuonalcapacity,including
thesocio-technologicalknowledgeandoperaonalgapsbetweenagenciesasthemajorbarriers
toproacveearlyacons.Thesechallenges,theyargue,canbeovercomethroughpragmaclegal
provisions, technical guidelines, and protocols to clarify the roles, responsibilies, and strong
policalwill,instuonalcommitment,accountabilityoftheauthoriesandbeerunderstanding
ofthecommunity.Theauthorsconcludebreakingdownexisngsilosbetweendierentdisaster
management agencies and creang enabling instuonal environment to adopt advanced
forecast-based technologies is the key to improving disaster preparedness and responses and
achievingthetargetsoftheNaonalDisasterRiskReduconStrategicAconPlan(2018-2030).
2. CONCLUSION AND POLICY RECOMMENDATION
This special issue analysed disaster risk producon and management in the context of rapid
urbanisaonintheHimalayanregion.Indoingso,our intenonwasto understandandreect
ontheinterrelaonsbetweencurrenturbanisaonanddisastermanagementtrendswithafocus
onthe NepalHimalaya.The fourcasesin thiscollecon exemplifyhow rapidand unregulated
urbanisaonisexposingcommunies,infrastructure,development,andsocietytomultudeof
risks.

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Poudel et al. Urbanisation and disaster risks in the Himalaya
The cases are social phenomena specic to me and place (Ragin, 1992) so their selecon is
inherently parcularintermsofsociety,placeandtheirimportancetothecommunity(Burawoy,
1991).Allstudiedcasesconsistently and explicitlydocumentthe existence of a lack of coordinaon
(in terms of sharing knowledge, capacity and resources) among governing instuons of
urbanisaon and disaster risk management which in turn exacerbate mul-hazard risks. The
rstcasestudyunpacksthelackofpolicalcommitment,instuonalcapacityandcoordinaon
reinforcedundertherubricofneoliberalurbanpolicy,thusthestate-ledintervenonsconnue
to accelerate rather than control haphazard urbanisaon. Such unplanned, haphazard and
capitalist urbanisaon has been termed “a disaster waing to happen” (Madden, 2021). The
lack of commitment, capacity and coordinaonis further evidenced in the second case study
whichtakesacloserlookattheparadoxofprolongedurbaninformalityissuesinNepal.Thisstudy
uncoversthepolicalandpolicyentanglementsofinformaltoformaltransioning,whichworkto
undermineeortsatresolvingurbaninformalityissues(seealsoSharp,2022;Banksetal.,2019).
In line with Allen’s (2006) warnings that treang community-based instuons as a panacea
to disaster management can be problemac, the third paper points to the limits of local risk
governance in the contexts of entrenched social norms and structures, and poor instuonal
capacity,coordinaonandaccountability.Finally,thefourthcasestudyfurthersubstanatesthat
theoperaonalgapsbetweenagenciesandthelackofinstuonalcapacityandproperdelineaon
ofauthority,responsibilityandaccountabilitybetweendierentlevelsofthegovernmentsarethe
majorbarrierstoproacveimplementaonofearlywarningaconsinNepalwhichundoubtedly
increasethevulnerabilitytofuturedisasters.
Althoughtheestablishmentofthe federalstructurehas opened awaytodevolveauthorityto
localgovernments,studieshavehighlightedthereisalackofinstuonalcapabilitytoundertake
the roles entrusted to them (Khatri et al., 2022). Consequently, the governing instuons at
mulplescaleslacktheabilitytoregulatehaphazardurbanisaonandassociatedriskproducon.
Byanalysingthecasesincludedinthisspecialissue,weconcludethatwhilepolicalrestructuring
and decentralised local governance have improved authority to devise policies and acons,
enhancingoverallinstuonalcapabilityremainsacrucialandunmetneed.Thisneedsclarityin
distribuonofauthorityacrossdierentlevelsofgovernmentsandrobustmechanismsforsharing
knowledge,technology,andotherresources,which,subsequently,willhelpenhanceinstuonal
capacity to understand local risks and prepare for and respond to mul-hazard disaster risks
interfacinghaphazardurbanisaon.
3. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The editorial team would like to thank the United Kingdom Research Iniave (UKRI) Global
ChallengesResearchFund (GCRF) grant“Tomorrow’sCies“ (Urban Disaster Risk) Hub project
(NE/S009000/1)forthenancialsupportforthepublicaonofthisspecialissue.Therst,second
andfourthauthors’involvementinthisspecialissuewasalsoparallyfundedbytheUKRI-GCRF-

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New Angle: Nepal Journal of Social Science and Public Policy Vol. 7 ( 1 ), 2021
EconomicandSocialResearchCouncil(ESRC)grantES/T00259X/1“PolicalCapabilies”project.
Special thanks and congratulaons to all the contribung authors for their perseverance and
paence. We aregrateful to the anonymous reviewers who provided valuable comments and
feedbackandalsothankeverybodywhoresponsedtothiscallforpaper.Weextendourthanksto
Mr.BinodAdhikariandMs.RojaniManandharfortheirhelpingenerangguresforthiseditorial
paper.AbigthankstoMs.GyanuMaskey,Ms.AvipshaRayamajhi,Ms.ParbaPandey,Ms.Monika
Giri,andMr.PradipDhakalfortheirecienttechnicalandadministravehelpsthroughout.
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