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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2553–2565, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2553-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Identifying plausible historical scenarios for coupled lake level
and seismicity rate changes: the case for the Dead Sea during
the last 2 millennia
Mariana Belferman1, Amotz Agnon2, Regina Katsman1, and Zvi Ben-Avraham1,3
1The Dr. Moses Strauss Department of Marine Geosciences, Leon H. Charney School of Marine Sciences,
University of Haifa, Haifa 3498838, Israel
2The Fredy & Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem 9190401, Israel
3Department of Geophysics, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv 69978, Israel
Correspondence: Mariana Belferman (mkukuliev@gmail.com), Amotz Agnon (amotz@huji.ac.il),
Regina Katsman (rkatsman@univ.haifa.ac.il), and Zvi Ben-Avraham (zviba@post.tau.ac.il)
Received: 26 February 2021 – Discussion started: 24 March 2021
Revised: 22 June 2022 – Accepted: 30 June 2022 – Published: 11 August 2022
Abstract. Studies of seismicity induced by water level
changes in reservoirs and lakes focus typically on well-
documented contemporary records. Can such interactions be
explored on a historical timescale when the two data types
suffer from severe uncertainties stemming from the differ-
ent nature of the data, methods and resolution? In this study,
we show a way to considerably improve the correlation be-
tween interpolated records of historical Dead Sea level re-
constructions and discrete seismicity patterns in the area,
over the period of the past 2 millennia. Inspired by the re-
sults of our previous study, we carefully revise the histor-
ical earthquake catalog in the Dead Sea to exclude remote
earthquakes and include small local events. For addressing
the uncertainties in lake levels, we generate an ensemble of
random interpolations of water level curves and rank them
by correlation with the historical records of seismic stress
release. We compute a synthetic catalog of earthquakes, ap-
plying a Mohr–Coulomb failure criterion. The critical state
of stress at hypocentral depths is achieved by static poroelas-
tic deformations incorporating the change in effective normal
stress (due to the best-fit water level curve) superimposed
on the regional strike-slip tectonic deformations. The earth-
quakes of this synthetic catalog show an impressive agree-
ment with historical earthquakes documented to have dam-
aged Jerusalem. We refine the seismic catalog by searching
for small local events that toppled houses in Jerusalem; in-
cluding all local events improves the correlation with lake
levels. We demonstrate for the first time a high correlation
between water level changes and the recorded recurrence in-
tervals of historical earthquakes.
1 Introduction
Earthquakes induced by water level changes in lakes and
reservoirs have been a focus of seismic investigations around
the world (e.g., Simpson et al., 1988; Pandey and Chadha,
2003; Durá-Gómez and Talwani, 2010). Triggering is at-
tributed to a drop in the effective normal stress at a fault,
induced by water level change at the overlying lake’s bed
(Simpson et al., 1988; Durá-Gómez and Talwani, 2010; Hua
et al., 2013b; Gupta, 2018). This kind of triggering may
be particularly significant for areas with moderate and low
tectonic strain accumulations (Pandey and Chadha, 2003;
Gupta, 2018), such as the Dead Sea Fault (DSF) in the Mid-
dle East (e.g., Masson et al., 2015).
Seismic activity due to water level change was observed
beneath artificial reservoirs immediately after their first fill-
ing (e.g., Simpson et al., 1988; Hua et al., 2013a). It also
appeared after several seasonal filling cycles (Simpson et
al., 1988; Talwani, 1997), explained by diffusion of pore
pressure to the earthquake’s hypocentral depth via the fault
(Durá-Gómez and Talwani, 2010). In addition, reservoir-
induced seismicity sometimes manifests itself at long dis-
tances away from the reservoir (e.g., at 35km, Durá-Gómez
Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union.
2554 M. Belferman et al.: Historical scenarios for coupled lake level and seismicity rate changes
and Talwani, 2010). The correspondence of this kind of con-
temporary seismicity to water level change is usually identi-
fied based upon real-time data.
Alternatively, on a much longer timescale, changing seis-
mic activity may also be associated with water level changes
in historical water bodies (e.g., the Dead Sea, since 2 ka,
Fig. A1, in Appendix A, which occupies the tectonic de-
pression along the Dead Sea Fault). Water level hikes of
∼15 m, characteristic for time intervals of centuries to mil-
lennia, were analyzed in Belferman et al. (2018) and shown
to be able to moderate the seismicity pattern at the Dead Sea
Fault.
However, reconstruction of fluctuations in historical lake
levels and the concurrent seismicity are both subject to sig-
nificant uncertainties. They stem from the differing nature
of the data gathered on these two phenomena and thus de-
serve special consideration. Earthquake dating can be quite
precise, and its accuracy is verified when different historical
sources show consensus (Guidoboni et al., 1994; Guidoboni
and Comastri, 2005; Ambraseys, 2009). Assessment of the
extent of damage (hence earthquake magnitude), similarly
requires such a consensus between the different data sources.
Sediment records can help to calibrate the analysis of the
historical evidence (Agnon, 2014; Kagan et al., 2011). Such
records can be tested by trenching (Wechsler et al., 2014;
Marco and Klinger, 2014; Lefevre et al., 2018). However, in
many cases the earthquake epicenter can be imprecise or not
even known. Consequently, considerable uncertainty pertains
to the historical catalog of earthquakes related directly to the
Dead Sea.
By contrast, historical water level records are quite pre-
cise regarding elevation, as they are obtained from different
points around the lake (Bookman et al., 2004; Migowski et
al., 2006). However, water level dating could have an error
of about ±45 years, as estimated from the radiocarbon dat-
ing of shoreline deposits in fan delta outcrops (Bookman et
al., 2004). This may underestimate the actual dating uncer-
tainty due to the reworking of organic matter, sometimes
redeposited a century or more after equilibration with the
atmosphere (Migowski et al., 2004). In addition, the entire
past bi-millennial Dead Sea level record is constrained by
less than 20 “anchor points” (the data obtained by the dat-
ing collected from surveyed paleo-shorelines, Bookman et
al., 2004). Therefore, its continuous reconstruction, as sug-
gested in the literature (Migowski et al., 2006; Stern, 2010),
usually takes different forms within the acceptable limits
dictated by the evidence, geomorphological (Bookman et
al., 2004) and limnological (Migowski et al., 2006). A chal-
lenging uncertainty for our study arises from the interpola-
tions required for periods when the available data do not con-
strain the water levels.
In this article, we take advantage of the correlation be-
tween the historical water level (WL) reconstructions at the
Dead Sea and seismicity patterns in the area over the past
2 millennia. We demonstrate for the first time that plausi-
ble scenarios for the lake level history can fit the record of
the historical earthquake recurrence intervals (RIs) very well.
Based on the correlation between these phenomena, we offer
an alternative explanation regarding the triggering of earth-
quakes in the area of the Dead Sea.
2 Methods
To investigate the relationship between an accurate but dis-
crete chronology of earthquakes and the continuous WL
change, we first explore the space of possible WL histories
by a statistical approach. Using a random number genera-
tor, we generate an ensemble of WL curves (based on the
anchor points, Bookman et al., 2004) within the limits dic-
tated by climatic and morphological constraints (Bookman
et al., 2004; Migowski et al., 2006; Stern, 2010).
In our analysis we associate all the historical earthquakes
presented (Tables 1A and 2A in Appendix A) with a rup-
ture of the strike-slip faults, which agrees with our model-
ing approach. Hence, the major strike-slip faults constituting
the plate boundary (lower Jordan Fault, Dead Sea Fault and
northern Arava) could be affected by Dead Sea WL changes.
Therefore, our study covers the area within this distance.
2.1 A best-fit random method of WL curve prediction
The compilation of WL curves of the Dead Sea for the
last 2 millennia from three recent publications (Bookman et
al., 2004; Migowski et al., 2006; Stern 2010) is presented in
Fig. 1a by dashed curves. Generally, the differences between
all dashed curves at anchor points are included within an er-
ror limit of ±45 years as indicated by error bars, with an
exception of the anchor point dated to 1400 CE (Bookman et
al., 2004) for which Migowski et al. (2006) and Stern (2010)
suggested a higher WL. Nevertheless, each hypothetical WL
curve is forced to pass through all anchor points provided
by Bookman et al. (2004) except for one, at around 500 CE.
The WL drop around this time, according to Migowski et
al. (2006) and Stern (2010), occurred later than was origi-
nally suggested by Bookman et al. (2004) (Fig. 1a). Because
this shift is within the permissible error limits (±45 years),
this anchor point is shifted to the left (+40 years). In addi-
tion, the WL determined on the curve edges of the studied
bi-millennial time interval was defined by additional two an-
chor points, through which the estimated WL curve passed
according to all three references. In total, we have 13 an-
chor points. Between each pair of points, the trends in the
WLs are constrained by the sedimentary facies (Migowski et
al., 2006) that specify the edge points of the interval as the
extrema for the acceptable WL variation.
However, within the largest interval between the an-
chor points (600–1100 CE), the field studies (Migowski et
al., 2006; Stern, 2010; Bookman et al., 2004) constrained the
WL to be lower than the extrema at the edges of that interval.
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M. Belferman et al.: Historical scenarios for coupled lake level and seismicity rate changes 2555
Figure 1. (a) The Dead Sea WL reconstructions for the last 2 millennia. The dashed curves are suggested by the literature sources. Turquoise
anchor points follow Bookman et al. (2004) as used in WL interpretation, while one point (in dark blue) is shifted to the left in the error
interval of ±45 years. The water curve (solid, black line) is suggested by this study. (b) Distribution of Pearson’s product-moment corre-
lation coefficient of randomly interpolated WLs and RIs of historic earthquakes. Normal distribution results from 10 million random WLs
reconstructions. (c, d) Orange curve represents the best-fit random WL curve vs. simulated and historic RIs, correspondingly. The blue dots
mark the dates of the seismic events, while the black dots indicate the recurrence interval between these events. For an optimal visualization
of the correlation, the degree of scaling freedom for the RI axis was set for these figures. (e) Dates of historic vs. simulated earthquakes based
on the suggested best-fit WLs curve (panels c, d) are compared.
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2556 M. Belferman et al.: Historical scenarios for coupled lake level and seismicity rate changes
For this period, the WL was randomly interpolated between
the higher (e.g., Migowski et al., 2006) and lower (e.g., Stern,
2010) bounds. To maintain a monotony of the WL variation
(required by the facies analysis of Migowski et al., 2006), a
moving average filtered the random noise between every pair
of the anchor points. Accounting for the above-mentioned
limits and setting a 10-year step, the model has generated
10 million WL curves for the last bi-millennial interval, us-
ing a uniformly distributed random number generator.
We test for linear correlation between the RIs of the widely
recorded moderate-to-large (M > 5.5) historical earthquakes
available from the literature (Table A1 and the text descrip-
tion in Appendix A) and the WL interpolations (as in Fig. 9 in
Belferman et al., 2018) and evaluate the values of the Pearson
product-moment correlation coefficient, R(Fig. 1b). We use
this statistic for evaluating the suitability of each randomly
interpolated WL curve for our analysis, for identification and
elimination of any outliers, and for studying the behavior of
the entire ensemble of the curves generated.
2.2 The earthquake simulation algorithm
The most suitable WL curve suggested by this correlation
(discussed in the “Results” section below) was used to gen-
erate a “synthetic” earthquake catalog based on the algorithm
described in this section. Effective (normal) poroelastic stress
change due to the WL change is superimposed on the tectonic
stress accumulated consistently with the slip deficit since the
preceding seismic event, and synthetic earthquakes are sim-
ulated using a Coulomb failure envelope and a Mohr circle
(e.g., Jaeger et al., 2009). A vertical strike-slip fault below the
lake/reservoir bed is assumed (simulating a Dead Sea Fault),
embedded in the 2D (plain strain) geometry of the upper crust
(Belferman et al., 2018). Tectonic horizontal strike-slip dis-
placements across the fault are approximated by a simple-
shear approach with no normal strain component.
In the poroelastic part of the model, horizontal stress
change normal to the strike-slip fault produced by the WL
change is calculated under a uniaxial (vertical) strain condi-
tion (Eq. 10b in Belferman et al., 2018). This is applicable to
a post-diffusion stage, i.e., when pore pressure at hypocen-
tral depth equilibrates with the lake’s bed. An array of the
effective horizontal normal stress changes, 1σ0
i, at the fault,
induced by the water load change at the lake’s bed, psi, corre-
sponds to the array of the WL change, 1hi(i=1,2,...2000)
over the interpolated WL curve in Fig. 1d (Eq. 10b in Belfer-
man et al., 2018):
1σ 0
i=1−2ν
1−ν(β−1)psi,(1)
where βis Biot’s coefficient and νis Poisson’s ratio, psi=
ρg1hi, where ρis the density of water and gis the acceler-
ation of gravity.
A radius and a center location of the Mohr circle change
as a function of the tectonic deformations and WL changes,
correspondingly, eventually reaching a failure envelope that
simulates an earthquake. The model uses Byerlee’s law en-
velope (Byerlee, 1978) to define a residual strength of a seis-
mogenic zone at the fault immediately after the earthquake
(see Belferman et al., 2018, for more detail). Since the effec-
tive stress upon the onset of an earthquake is specified by a
high failure envelope and the effective stress following the
slip is given by Byerlee’s law (e.g., Belferman et al., 2018),
the model is time-predictable. The stress drop, at least in the
nucleation zone of a single-fault model, is expected to be pro-
portional to the RI.
A starting point of the simulations is the date of the first
historical earthquake (33 CE, Table A1 in Appendix A) from
the bi-millennial time interval studied. The simulation incre-
mentally proceeds with time over the WL curve generated
(as above) under the accumulating tectonic stress. After each
stress release, the time to the next earthquake, 1t, is calcu-
lated from the solution of the Mohr–Coulomb failure crite-
rion for a strike-slip tectonic regime and a WL change, 1hi,
characteristic of the Dead Sea Fault (Belferman et al., 2018):
(τi−τ0)2+σi−σ0+1σ 0
i2=R0+1τxyi2
τi=C+tan(ϕ)σi,(2)
assuming that 1τxyi=Ccos(ϕ)
tRI 1t is the tectonic shear stress
accumulated consistently with the slip deficit at the strike-
slip fault during the period 1t (time passed since the last
earthquake), Cis cohesion, ϕis an angle of internal friction,
σ0and τ0are the coordinates of the Mohr circle center im-
mediately after the earthquake with R0as its radius, and tRI
is the reference RI corresponding to the minimal WL.
For each time step, the algorithm determines whether there
is a single, two or no solutions. A case of no solutions means
that the Mohr circle is yet to reach the failure envelope, as
the accumulating tectonic stress and the WL increase are still
insufficient. The system of Eq. (2) may have a single solution
when the failure criterion is met at the end of some time step
or two solutions when it is met before the end of the time
step. A case of two solutions is rounded down to a case of
a single solution if a time step (1 year) is small compared to
the earthquake RI (several hundreds of years).
This solution of Eq. (2) yields an RI as a function of the
change in effective normal horizontal stress, 1σ0
i(Belferman
et al., 2018):
RI =1t =C+tan(ϕ)1σ 0
itRI
C,(3)
where tRI is the reference RI corresponding to the minimal
WL, Cis cohesion, and ϕis an angle of internal friction.
From this formula, an array of earthquake dates is obtained.
Substitution of Eq. (1) into Eq. (3) yields a linear depen-
dence of a simulated RI on a WL change, 1hi, evolving with
time:
RI =tRI +tan(ϕ)
C
1−2ν
1−ν(β−1)ρgtRI 1hi.(4)
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M. Belferman et al.: Historical scenarios for coupled lake level and seismicity rate changes 2557
A tectonic slip rate is set at 5 mm yr−1(e.g., Hamiel
et al., 2018; Hamiel and Piatibratova, 2019; Masson et
al., 2015). Coefficients for the simulations were previously
determined in Belferman et al. (2018). Note that the cohe-
sion, C, is not a priori known; hence it is fixed by the empiri-
cal correlation between WL and RI for a given lake level his-
tory considered. Its value, C=0.08 MPa, and a reference RI,
tRI =300 years, were adjusted numerically for a WL curve,
providing the average RI of 144 years over the modeled pe-
riod of 2 millennia justified by historical, archeological and
geological data (Agnon, 2014).
3 Results
The 10 most suitable WL curves are identified out of the
set of 10 million randomly generated WL curves (“ensem-
ble”) by the Pearson product-moment correlation test. The
values of the correlation coefficients, R, for the entire en-
semble are distributed normally around R=0.63 (Fig. 1b)
with a standard deviation of σ=0.076. The 10 most suitable
WL curves ordered by their correlation coefficients, R, are
presented in Fig. 2.
Three outliers from the 13 RIs of the widely recorded his-
toric earthquakes (749, 1293 and 1834 CE in Fig. 1) were
identified and reevaluated (explanation in Appendix A). A
curve with the highest Pearson coefficient of R=0.912 was
chosen from the correlation between the RIs of the revised
historic catalog and the randomly generated WLs (Fig. 2).
This correlation can be specified by a linear prediction func-
tion:
RI = −5442 −14WL,(5)
where RI is given in years and WL is in meters. In addition,
a synthetic earthquake history including 14 seismic events
was simulated from the best-fit randomly interpolated WL
curve with R=1 specified above. The synthetic RIs can be
approximated based on the WLs using the linear relationship
of Eq. (4):
RI = −3840 −10WL,(6)
for which the dates of the simulated synthetic earthquakes are
presented and compared to the dates of the historical earth-
quakes from the literature (Table A1, Appendix A) in Fig. 1e.
The synthetic earthquake stress history is presented in
Fig. 3. The effective horizontal normal stress change, 1σ0
i
(Fig. 3a), linearly depends on the WL (Eq. 1) and, as
expected, follows its variability. The tectonic shear stress
change, 1τxy , drops to zero after the accumulated shear
stress is released by the strike-slip earthquake (Fig. 3b). Less
shear stress is required to induce the earthquake when the
change in WL is larger (Fig. 3a, b), modeled with the Mohr–
Coulomb failure criteria (Fig. 3c) (explained also in Belfer-
man et al., 2018).
4 Discussion
Uncertainties in the WL reconstructions associated with dat-
ing and resolution lead to considerable variance in possible
interpolations (Fig. 1b). A Pearson correlation coefficient test
shows that most of the randomly interpolated WL curves give
a linear correlation with earthquake RIs (indicated by a mean
Pearson coefficient of R=0.63), excluding the three outliers
(Fig. 1d) to be discussed below. Figure 2 shows a similar pat-
tern of the WL change for the 10 most correlated curves.
In all cases, a significant rise in the WL around 400 and
1100 CE is visible as well as a decrease in the WL around
200 and 600 CE. Also, the maximum level around 500 and
1900 CE appears in all 10 cases.
For simulating synthetic earthquakes triggered by the WL
change, we use the WL curve that generates the highest
correlation with the revised historical catalog (R=0.912)
(Fig. 2). The dates of these simulated synthetic earthquakes
are comparable with historical earthquakes (Fig. 1e), exclud-
ing two events whose date labels are offset to the yaxis
for clarity of presentation (1753 and 1180 CE). The dates
of these synthetic earthquakes might be connected to three
outliers from the historical catalog (1834, 1293 and 749 CE,
depicted in Fig. 1d) as explained below.
The 1180 CE synthetic earthquake (Fig. 1e) is compara-
ble to an earthquake in the literature dated by Amiran et
al. (1994) to the mid-12th century (∼1150 CE). Ambraseys
(2009) doubted the precise dating but accepted this mid-
12th-century estimate. The damaged area of this earthquake
spanned Jericho and Jerusalem, and the event could be con-
sidered significant because it led to the total destruction of
two monasteries, one of which is 10 km south of Jerusalem’s
curtain wall. By admitting the ∼1150 CE earthquake into the
amended catalog, we reduce the RI of the subsequent earth-
quake in 1293 CE (Fig. 1d) from 260 to 143 years, thereby
bringing this outlier very close to the linear correlation.
Our model also generates an earthquake in the 18th cen-
tury, dated 1753CE, for which there were no matches in
our initial historical catalog (Belferman et al., 2018). How-
ever, in Amiran’s et al. (1994) catalog an earthquake in
1712 CE is indicated as follows: “The quake shook the solid
houses and ruined three Turkish houses. Felt in Ramle, but
not in Jaffa”. Additionally, this earthquake is evidenced by
seismites dated to 1700–1712 CE from an Ein Gedi site
(Migowski et al., 2004).
Regarding the modeled 1907 CE event, we note the well-
documented (although often overlooked) 29 March 1903CE
earthquake (Amiran et al., 1994). This was a moderate but
prolonged earthquake: local intensity reached VII (modified
Mercalli intensity scale) in a number of localities distributed
outside the rift valley over an area of 140×70 km2(includ-
ing Jerusalem), whereas the maximum intensity reported in
the rift was VII as well (Jericho). We prefer to correlate
the modeled 1907 CE event with the stronger 1927 CE Jeri-
cho earthquake that clearly released stress in the Dead Sea
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2558 M. Belferman et al.: Historical scenarios for coupled lake level and seismicity rate changes
Figure 2. The 10 most suitable WLs identified out of the 10 million randomly generated by the Pearson product-moment correlation test.
(e.g., Shapira et al., 1993; Avni et al., 2002; Agnon, 2014).
This leaves the 1903CE unmatched to our model. Perhaps
the earthquake ruptured the northern part of the central Jor-
dan Valley, north of the Dead Sea and south of Lake Kinneret
(Sea of Galilee).
Regarding the last outlier from the historical earthquakes
dated to 749 CE (or its neighbors 747 and 757 CE, Table A1
in Appendix A) (Fig. 1d) and corresponding to the sim-
ulated 780 CE earthquake (Fig. 1e): the simulation gener-
ated the preceding earthquake in 514 CE associated with
the 659/660 CE event from the literature (Table A1 in Ap-
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M. Belferman et al.: Historical scenarios for coupled lake level and seismicity rate changes 2559
Figure 3. (a) The change in effective normal stress, 1σ0, induced by WL change in Eq. (1). (b) The change in tectonic shear stress, 1τxy ,
accumulated consistently with the slip deficit on the strike-slip fault during the time passed since the last earthquake. The shear stress
accumulation rate used in this study is about 23 kPa per century (formulation below Eq. 2, following Belferman et al., 2018). (c) Evolution
of the stress change on the fault due to combined tectonic and water loading. The state of the effective stress at the fault immediately after
an earthquake is restricted by the Byerlee’s law envelope with zero cohesion, C=0, and a friction angle, ϕ=0.54rad. The center of the
Mohr circle is located at σ0,τ0=0 (see Belferman et al., 2018, for more detail). The failure envelope is defined by C≥0 and ϕ=0.54 rad.
The left shift in the center of the circle by 1σ 0represents pore pressure (due to WL) change at this moment (panel a); the increase in radius
represents tectonic shear stress, 1τxy , accumulated during the inter-seismic period (panel b). Failure occurs when the circle tangents the
failure envelope (presented here for the representative 1320 CE earthquake).
pendix A) with a deviation of 146 years. The rupture zone
of the 659/660 CE event is uncertain, and this earthquake
is not necessarily related to stress release at the Dead Sea
basin. Alternatively, following Russell (1985), as a result of
the 551 CE earthquake, a fortress east of the southern Dead
Sea and Petra were destroyed. Newer data contradict the as-
sertion regarding Petra; a failure in the Dead Sea region is
still plausible. Replacing the 660 CE earthquake with 551CE
in the catalog changes the RI preceding the 749 CE historical
earthquake from 89 to 198 CE, which brings this outlier into
a satisfactory linear correlation (Fig. 1d).
Additionally, it should be emphasized that in the simula-
tion presented in this article, the starting point is quite ar-
bitrarily, regarding the earthquake of 33 CE. This event to-
gether with the subsequent earthquakes in 90 and 112 CE
(not predicted by our model) span a single century where the
catalog is nebulous. Each of these events could thus repre-
sent the starting point of the simulations or could be omitted
at this early and poorly documented interval.
Summarizing the above amendments, we add to our cata-
log of historical events the 551, ∼1150 and 1712CE earth-
quakes and remove the 90, 112 and 659/660CE earthquakes
(Fig. 1e). Altogether, we get 14 triggered historical earth-
quakes. The correlation between the WL and RI is notice-
able for the various variants of the WL curve reconstruction
(Fig. 4).
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2560 M. Belferman et al.: Historical scenarios for coupled lake level and seismicity rate changes
Figure 4. The Dead Sea WL reconstruction for the last 2 millennia. The dashed curves are suggested by the literature. Blue anchor points
have an error interval of ±45 years, following Bookman et al. (2004). The solid black line is the WL curve suggested by this study. The black
points represent the RI for revised historical events, suggested in this study as being relevant to the Dead Sea area.
The correlation of RI with the best-fit random estimated
curve can be specified by a linear prediction function:
RI = −2483 −6.5WL.(7)
This linear relationship between WL and RI underscores the
previously proposed correlations between these phenomena
(in Fig. 9 in Belferman et al., 2018).
Since the last earthquake (1927 CE), the WL in the Dead
Sea has continuously decreased at an average annual rate of
∼1 m yr−1. Today the WL is about −440 (m b.m.s.l., below
mean sea level); thus our prediction function (Eq. 7) suggests
an RI of 377 years, for such a WL. Namely, should the WL in
the Dead Sea remain constant (−440 m b.m.s.l.), as intended
in some mitigation plans, we would expect the next earth-
quake at about ∼2300 CE.
This paper stresses that the reconstruction of WL curves is
not unique and may take various forms under the constraints
available (e.g., Fig. 1a). However, the correlation with an
independent record of RIs of seismic events, assuming that
earthquakes are affected by WL hikes, allows for deciphering
plausible scenarios for WL evolution. Moreover, for cases
with the best but a not perfect correlation, the deviation might
be consistent with a release of elastic energy by smaller
earthquakes, which are not accounted for by the determinis-
tic part of our model. We note that smaller earthquakes might
rupture dip-slip fault planes, again not accounted for by our
simple model.
Additionally, as large earthquakes are accompanied by af-
tershocks, some of the elastic energy is released by them.
It was shown earlier that in areas of reservoir-induced seis-
micity, earthquakes are not only accompanied by aftershocks
but also preceded by foreshocks (Gupta, 2002). The decay
curve of this kind of seismicity satisfies the criteria for the
second class of earthquake sequences by Mogi (1963). The
lack of instrumental records of historical earthquakes in our
study area does not allow for comparison with this class. The
1995 CE Gulf of Aqaba earthquake (7.2 Mw), the last large
instrumentally recorded earthquake, was accompanied by a
long period (significant enough for stress release considera-
tion) of the aftershocks. The earthquake occurred along the
southern part of the plate boundary, which is far enough from
the Dead Sea and most likely is not influenced by the WL
change. Following this earthquake aftershocks continued for
about 2 years. At least 50 % of the total moment associated
with these aftershocks was released during the first day after
the main shock, with over 95% in the first 3 months (Baer et
al., 2008). In total, the post-seismic moment released during
the period of 6 months to 2 years after the Nuweiba earth-
quake is about 15 % of the co-seismic moment release (Baer
et al., 2008). This earthquake showed that the response of the
crust to earthquakes by aftershocks is negligible, as noted for
many large earthquakes (e.g., Scholz, 1972).
For the case of artificial reservoirs, it was shown that for
reservoir-induced seismicity sequences, aftershocks continue
for a longer time than for tectonic earthquake sequences
(Gupta, 2002). However, given the timescale of RI, the period
of aftershocks is insufficient to consider earthquakes from
the sequence in our model as separate events. Regarding the
timescale presented in our study, when the minimal inter-
seismic period is about 50 years, the stress released during
a post-seismic period can be considered a part of the main
shock.
The mechanical model used in this article is rather sim-
plistic, where earthquakes release the strike-slip component
of the tectonic loading (Fig. 3b). The basins around the Dead
Sea Fault system also testify to an extensional component
that could be manifested in co-seismic motion along normal
faults. To justify our focus on a single type of fault (strike-
slip), we list the following arguments:
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M. Belferman et al.: Historical scenarios for coupled lake level and seismicity rate changes 2561
–The far-field maximal and minimal principal stresses
in the Dead Sea region are horizontal (Hofstetter et
al., 2007; Palano et al., 2013). This is compatible with
the dominance of strike-slip faulting (Anderson, 1951).
The tectonic motion at the DSF is characterized pre-
dominantly by a left-lateral strike-slip regime with a
velocity of ∼5 mm yr−1along various segments (Gar-
funkel, 2014; Masson et al., 2015; Sadeh et al., 2012).
Large earthquakes that initiate clusters are likely to rup-
ture along the straight ∼100 km strike-slip segments
(Lyakhovsky et al., 2001). The strike of these segments
parallels the relative plate velocity vector and thus can
be approximated by simple shear. Additionally, in the
Dead Sea basin, GPS surveys indicate the dominance of
strike-slip loading. Hamiel et al. (2018) show that, on a
plate scale, horizontal shear loading dominates the ve-
locity north of the lake. Hamiel and Piatibratova (2019)
detected a component of extension of under a millimeter
per year across the southern normal fault bounding the
Dead Sea pull-apart (Amatzyahu Fault), yet the strike-
slip component across this very fault is much larger.
–Normal, as well as strike-slip, faults similarly react to
WL change that contributes to the vertical stress com-
ponent and pore pressure change. The seismicity in-
duced by surface WL fluctuations and affected by the
faulting regime is critically determined by the relative
orientations of the three principal stresses in Earth’s
crust (Anderson, 1951). In regions where the vertical
compressive stress is not minimal (normal and strike-
slip faulting), seismic activity is more sensitive to the
effective stress change due to WL change than in re-
gions where it is minimal (thrust faulting) (Simpson,
1976; Snow, 1982; Roeloffs, 1988). This is applicable
to reservoirs approximated as “infinite” in the horizon-
tal plane (e.g., Wang, 2000), with respect to the fault
zone horizontal cross-section. Since we are using a 1D
model, such an approximation is valid for our study area
where the Dead Sea is large enough in a horizontal plane
(100 km ×10km) compared to the thickness of the un-
derlying strike-slip fault (cross-section) located in the
central part of the valley.
Our results demonstrate that a fairly simple forward model
(based on a 1D analytical solution, Belferman et al., 2018)
achieves a convincing correlation between WLs and RIs
of moderate-to-strong earthquakes on the Dead Sea Fault.
Whereas the fault system along the Dead Sea Fault is more
complicated, 3D modeling of the tectonic motion, coupled
with the pore pressure evolution, may give more reliable
predictions regarding earthquake ruptures and their chronol-
ogy. However, based on the relationship between the WL
and RI changes presented in this article, with the current an-
thropogenic decrease in the Dead Sea level (with an aver-
age annual rate of ∼1 m yr−1), a moderate-to-severe earth-
quake will not be triggered by the mechanism discussed here.
This article not only suggests the existence of a connection
between WL and RI but also provides additional guidance
based on this connection.
Appendix A: The earthquake history of the Dead Sea
environs
Numerous publications list earthquakes that hit the Dead Sea
and its surroundings during the last 2 millennia (e.g., Agnon,
2014; Ambraseys et al., 1994; Ambraseys, 2009; Amiran et
al., 1994; Guidoboni et al., 1994; Guidoboni and Comas-
tri, 2005). In Belferman et al. (2018) we adopted from the
scores of listed events only the most destructive ones, typi-
cally causing local intensities of VII or higher in Jerusalem.
For a minimal epicentral distance of 30 km, this would trans-
late to a magnitude of ∼5.7 or higher (according to the at-
tenuation relation of Hough and Avni, 2011).
Table A1 lists the Dead Sea earthquakes considered for
stress release across the Dead Sea basin during the last 2 mil-
lennia. We used two criteria: noticeable damage in fortified
Jerusalem and seismites in the northern Dead Sea. Our sim-
ple model simulates an earthquake time series, given a water
level curve. A total of 11 events from this time series corre-
late with events of magnitude ∼6 or more in the historical
record. Yet, the model generates four events that are not in-
cluded in our original catalog. On the other hand, a single
event (∼660CE) listed in Belferman et al. (2018) has no
counterpart in the simulations despite a wide range of level
curves tested. All these curves are generated by a random
number generator, subject to constraints from field data. We
first discuss the four events required by the simulations one
by one. Then we review the ∼660CE event along with other
historical events that were left out already in Belferman et
al. (2018).
The earthquakes in Table A1 are classified according to
the level of acceptance for being destructive in Jerusalem.
The nine events of Class C are all consensual (also used by
Belferman et al., 2018). These events appear in all catalogs
and lists and need no further discussion. The six events of
Class A are debated events, accepted in the present study. All
earthquakes in this class are selected by simultaneously sat-
isfying two criteria: (1) the acceptance regularizes the rela-
tion between recurrence intervals and lake level, and (2) they
are corroborated by evidence from seismites in the north-
ern basin of the Dead Sea (Ein Feshkha and Ein Gedi sites,
Fig. A1, corroborate this).
We chose the year 33 CE to start our simulations. While
this earthquake did not cause widespread damage, it was
recorded in all three seismite sites (Kagan et al., 2011),
with a maximum of a decade of uncertainty based on dat-
ing by counting lamina under the microscope (Migowski et
al., 2004; Williams et al., 2012).
The second entry in Table A1, ∼100 CE, refers to
2 decades of unrest. Migowski et al. (2004) identified a pair
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2553-2022 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2553–2565, 2022
2562 M. Belferman et al.: Historical scenarios for coupled lake level and seismicity rate changes
Table A1. A catalog of earthquakes that could potentially damage Jerusalem. The classes denote the level of acceptance of damage to
Jerusalem among the researchers: C – consensual; B – accepted by Belferman et al. (2018); A – amended here; R – rejected here.
Year CE or Class Seismite correlation Reference Comments
century by site
(marked C)
ZEaEGbEFc
33 B + + + MI, K, W Identified in all three seismites sites, varve-counted to 31BCE
∼100 B −2−MI, AM Seismites ∼90 and ∼112; questionable archeological evidence
∼175 B − + − MI A seismite; no historical or archeological support
363 C − − + K, A A seiche in the Dead Sea, a seismite at EFc(northern Dead Sea)
419 C + + + KT, MI, K
551 A + + + PA, AM
747/749, 757 C + + + KT, MI, K
1033 C ? + + KT, MI, K
∼1150 A + − /AM, K I0IX – Mar Elias (and Qasr al-Yahud) monasteries demolished
1293 C + + + K
1458 C + +
Hiatus
MI
1546 C /+MI
1712 A /+MI A:I0VII – “ruined three Turkish houses in Jerusalem”
1834 C + + KT, MI
1903 R m m A, AM I0VII – Mount of Olives; several shocks, I0up to VII over a large area
1927 C + + KT, MI HA:I0VII–VIII – in and around Jerusalem (I07.8 by GMPE)
Abbreviations and notes: aZe’elim Creek. bEin Gedi core. cEin Feshkha Nature Reserve. The modified Mercalli intensity scale (MMS) is given by I0(local intensity),
followed by Roman numerals (range from I to XII). A: I0– local intensity defined by Amiran et al. (1994). HA: I0– local intensity defined by Hough and Avni (2011). GMPE:
ground motion prediction equations. AM: Ambraseys (2009). A: Amiran et al. (1994). HA: Hough and Avni (2011). K: Kagan et al. (2011). KT: Ken-Tor et al. (2001).
MI: Migowski et al. (2004). PA: Parker (1982). W: Williams et al. (2012).
of seismites around 90 and 112 CE in the Ein Gedi core. The
corresponding sequences in Ein Feshkha and Ze’elim Creek
are laminates, attesting to quiescence. A historical hiatus be-
tween the Roman demolition of Jerusalem and the erection of
Aelia Capitolina in its stead (70–130 CE) preclude historical
evidence, although damage to the Masada fortress has been
assigned to an earthquake in 1712 CE.
Table A2 lists 10 earthquakes that have been reported to
have caused damage around Jerusalem but are not required
by our simulations. The seven events of Class R are the de-
bated events, rejected here after discussion. The three Class S
events were skipped altogether in that compilation of Am-
braseys (2009).
Of the seven Class R events, the 7 June 659 CE earth-
quake was accepted by us in Belferman et al. (2018). The
earthquake has been associated with the destruction of the
Monastery of Euthymius 10 km east of Jerusalem, but no
damage in the town of Jerusalem has been unequivocally re-
ported (Ambraseys, 2009). In Belferman et al. (2018) we in-
cluded this event in the catalog of Dead Sea earthquakes, as
Langgut et al. (2015) have located it in the center of the Jor-
dan Valley segment of the transform (Fig. A1). However, this
interpretation neglected the possibility that the rupture could
have been outside the hydrological effect of the Dead Sea
basin. One of the lessons of our numerous simulations is that
our model would not support triggering of this earthquake
shortly (less than a century) before the mid-eighth-century
crisis, when lake levels were dropping to the lowest point in
the studied period (420 m b.m.s.l., Fig. 1a). When rejecting
the 659 CE event, the 419 CE earthquake is the one preced-
ing the mid-eighth-century crisis; the 3-century recurrence
interval fits the low lake level well.
1016 CE. The collapse of the Dome of the Rock was
not explicitly attributed to an earthquake by the original
sources, who found it enigmatic as well (Ambraseys,
2009).
1644 CE. Ambraseys (2009) quoted a late Arab author,
al-Umari, who reported collapse of houses and deaths of
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2553–2565, 2022 https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2553-2022
M. Belferman et al.: Historical scenarios for coupled lake level and seismicity rate changes 2563
Table A2. Events listed in some catalogs and subsequently skipped (Class S) or declined (Class D) by Ambraseys (2009) or rejected (Class R)
in the present study.
Year CE Class Seismite correlation by site Reference Comments
ZEaEGbEFc
∼659 R − + + L, AM Jordan Valley, possibly over 65km northeast of Jerusalem
808 S /−? A
1016 D ? ? ? AM, A Damage to the Dome of the Rock, no specific reference to shaking
1042 S − + − BM Syria, off the Dead Sea transform
1060 S /− + A, SB The roof of Al-Aqsa collapsed
1063 R /− + A, AM, SB Syrian littoral
1068 D + + + AM Neither of the two events can be associated with the Dead Sea
1105 D ? ? ? A, AM “Strong” but “no damage recorded in the sources”
1114 D + + ? A, AM 1114 – no damage around the city, a swarm, kingdom’s north
∼1117 R +? A, AM
1557 R AM Collapse in Jerusalem: a gun foundry, a forgery, an oven
1644 R h +∗ h AM Some damage and death toll in Palestine, likely seismite 6 of MI, Table 2
1656 R h −h A, AM, SB Tripoli VII, Palestine IV, MI misidentified with seismite 6
1817 R AM Two churches damaged in Jerusalem, Holy Sepulchre affected
1870 S ? −h AM Mediterranean source
Abbreviations and notes: aZe’elim Creek. bEin Gedi core. cEin Feshkha Nature Reserve. The modified Mercalli intensity scale (MMS) is given in Roman numerals (range from I to
XII). AM: Ambraseys (2009). A: Amiran et al. (1994). BM: Ben-Menahem (1991). L: Langgut et al. (2015). SB: Sbeinati et al. (2005). MI: Migowski et al. (2004).
Figure A1. A map showing the epicenter reconstructed by Langgut
et al. (2015) for the 659/660 CE mainshock. CF – Carmel Fault.
five persons in “the town of Filistin”. While Ambraseys
has interpreted it to probably be Jerusalem, it might re-
fer to al-Ramla, the historical capital of the classical
district of Filistin, as in “al-Ramla, Madinat Filastin”
(Elad, 1992, p. 335). It could also be a mistranslation
of “Bilad Filistin” which at that time referred to the en-
tire district of the Holy Land, without specifying a town
(Gerber, 1998). Jerusalem, at that time, was called Bayt
al-Maqdis or, as nowadays, al-Quds. The only report
of an earthquake in Jerusalem around 1644 CE men-
tions horror but no structural damage – the 1643 CE
event that Ambraseys (2009) tends to equate with the
1644 CE event. A seismite in Ein Gedi core can be cor-
related with this event (Migowski et al., 2004, their Ta-
ble 2, entry 6). Migowski et al. (2004) have identified
the seismite with the 1656 CE earthquake that was felt
in Palestine; Ambraseys’ (2009) interpretation was not
yet available for them.
1656 CE. This event was strong in Tripoli and only felt
in Palestine. Migowski et al. (2004) correlated it to a
seismite based on deposition rates (no lamina count-
ing for that interval). Given the 1644CE entry of Am-
braseys (2009), this interpretation should be revised,
and the 1656 CE earthquake is not to be associated with
any local rupture in the Dead Sea.
Data availability. All raw data can be provided by the correspond-
ing authors upon request.
Author contributions. MB and AA conceptualized the project. AA
collected and analyzed the data. MB modeled and visualized the
data and analyzed the results. RK validated the results. MB prepared
the original draft of the paper, and MB, RK and AA reviewed and
revised it. AA, ZB and RK acquired funding and resources.
Competing interests. The contact author has declared that none of
the authors has any competing interests.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2553-2022 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2553–2565, 2022
2564 M. Belferman et al.: Historical scenarios for coupled lake level and seismicity rate changes
Disclaimer. Publisher’s note: Copernicus Publications remains
neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and
institutional affiliations.
Acknowledgements. This project was supported by grants from the
Ministry of Energy (grant no. 213-17-002) and the German–Israeli
Foundation for Scientific Research and Development (GIF; grant
no. I-1280-301.8) and by PhD fellowships from the University of
Haifa, Israel. The data for this paper were obtained with analytical
and numerical modeling. We thank the editor and reviewers for their
contribution in enhancing this paper.
Financial support. This research has been supported by the Min-
istry of Energy of Israel (grant no. 213-17-002) and the German–
Israeli Foundation for Scientific Research and Development (grant
no. I-1280-301.8).
Review statement. This paper was edited by Oded Katz and re-
viewed by three anonymous referees.
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