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Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Working Group II Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Authors:
  • EThekwini Municipality; University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa

Abstract

‘Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability’, the Working Group II contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report presents a comprehensive assessment of the current state of knowledge of the observed impacts and projected risks of climate change as well as the adaptation options. The report confirms the strong interactions of the natural, social and climate systems and that human-induced climate change has caused widespread adverse impacts to nature and people. It is clear that across sectors and regions, the most vulnerable people and systems are disproportionately affected and climate extremes have led to irreversible impacts. The assessment underscores the importance of limiting global warming to 1.5°C if we are to achieve a fair, equitable and sustainable world. While the assessment concluded that there are feasible and effective adaptation options which can reduce risks to nature and people, it also found that there are limits to adaptation and that there is a need for increased ambition in both adaptation and mitigation. These and other findings confirm and enhance our understanding of the importance of climate resilient development across sectors and regions and, as such, demands the urgent attention of both policymakers and the general public.
Climate Change 2022:
Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Working Group II Contribution to the
Sixth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Edited by
Hans-Otto Pörtner
Working Group II Co-Chair
Debra C. Roberts
Working Group II Co-Chair
Melinda M. B. Tignor
Head of TSU
Elvira Poloczanska
Science Advisor to the
WGII Co-Chairs and TSU
Katja Mintenbeck
Director of Science
Andrés Alegría
Graphics Officer
Marlies Craig
Science Officer
Stefanie Langsdorf
Graphics Officer
Sina Löschke
Communications Manager
Vincent Möller
Science Officer
Andrew Okem
Science Officer
Bardhyl Rama
Director of Operations
With editorial assistance from Daniel Belling, Wolfgang Dieck, Sandra Götze, Tijama Kersher, Philisiwe Mangele,
Bastian Maus, Anka Mühle, Komila Nabiyeva, Maike Nicolai, Almut Niebuhr, Jan Petzold, Esté Prentzler, Jussi
Savolainen, Hanna Scheuffele, Stefan Weisfeld and Nora Weyer
Working Group II Technical Support Unit
© 2022 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
The boundaries of the data and the designations used do not imply official endorsement, acceptance or the expression of any opinion whatsoever
on the part of the IPCC or the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the
delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
Please use the following reference to cite the whole report:
IPCC, 2022: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf,
S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA,
3056 pp., doi:10.1017/9781009325844.
Front cover artwork: A Borrowed Planet - Inherited from our ancestors. On loan from our children. by Alisa Singer www.environmentalgraphiti.org
© 2022 Alisa Singer
iii
Contents
Foreword � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � vii
Preface � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � ix
Dedication � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � xi
Summary for Policymakers � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 3
Technical Summary � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 37
Point of Departure and Key Concepts � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 121
Chapter 1 Terrestrial and Freshwater Ecosystems and Their Services � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 197
Chapter 2 Oceans and Coastal Ecosystems and Their Services � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 379
Chapter 3 Water � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 551
Chapter 4 Food, Fibre and Other Ecosystem Products � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 713
Chapter 5 Cities, Settlements and Key Infrastructure � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 907
Chapter 6 Health, Wellbeing and the Changing Structure of Communities � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 1041
Chapter 7 Poverty, Livelihoods and Sustainable Development � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 1171
Chapter 8 Africa � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 1285
Chapter 9 Asia � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 1457
Chapter 10 Australasia � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 1581
Chapter 11 Central and South America � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 1689
Chapter 12 Europe � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 1817
Chapter 13 North America � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 1929
Chapter 14 Small Islands � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 2043
Chapter 15 Biodiversity Hotspots � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 2123
Cross-Chapter Paper 1 Cities and Settlements by the Sea � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 2163
Cross-Chapter Paper 2 Deserts, Semiarid Areas and Desertification � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 2195
Cross-Chapter Paper 3 Mediterranean Region � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 2233
Cross-Chapter Paper 4 Mountains � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 2273
Front Matter
Chapters and
Cross-Chapter Papers
TS
SPM
Annexes
Cross-Chapter Paper 5 Polar Regions � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 2319
Cross-Chapter Paper 6 Tropical Forests � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 2369
Chapter 16 Key Risks across Sectors and Regions � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 2411
Chapter 17 Decision-Making Options for Managing Risk � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 2539
Chapter 18 Climate Resilient Development Pathways � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 2655
Annex I Global to Regional Atlas � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 2811
Annex II Glossary � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 2897
Annex III Acronyms � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 2931
Annex IV Contributors to the Working Group II Contribution to the IPCC Sixth
Assessment Report � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 2939
Annex V Expert Reviewers of the Working Group II Contribution to the IPCC Sixth
Assessment Report � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 2965
Index � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 3005
Index
Foreword, Preface
and Dedication
vii
Foreword
Foreword
Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability’, the
Working Group II contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change’s (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report presents a comprehensive
assessment of the current state of knowledge of the observed impacts
and projected risks of climate change as well as the adaptation options.
The report confirms the strong interactions of the natural, social and
climate systems and that human-induced climate change has caused
widespread adverse impacts to nature and people. It is clear that
across sectors and regions, the most vulnerable people and systems are
disproportionately affected and climate extremes have led to irreversible
impacts. The assessment underscores the importance of limiting global
warming to 1.5°C if we are to achieve a fair, equitable and sustainable
world. While the assessment concluded that there are feasible and
effective adaptation options which can reduce risks to nature and
people, it also found that there are limits to adaptation and that there
is a need for increased ambition in both adaptation and mitigation.
These and other findings confirm and enhance our understanding of the
importance of climate resilient development across sectors and regions
and, as such, demands the urgent attention of both policymakers and
the general public.
As an intergovernmental body jointly established in 1988 by the
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations
Environment Programme (UNEP), the IPCC has provided policymakers
with the most authoritative and objective scientific and technical
assessments. Beginning in 1990, this series of IPCC Assessment Reports,
Special Reports, Technical Papers, Methodology Reports and other
products have become standard works of reference.
This Working Group II contribution to the IPCC’s Sixth