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РОЗВИТОК ДЕМОГРАФІЧНОГО ПОТЕНЦІАЛУ КАРПАТСЬКОГО РЕГІОНУ УКРАЇНИ У ПРОЕКЦІЇ ВИСОКОЇ МІГРАЦІЙНОЇ МОБІЛЬНОСТІ МОЛОДІ
Abstract
У статті запропоновано і апробовано методичний підхід до оцінювання розвитку демографічного потенціалу молоді Карпатського регіону України у розрізі чотирьох складових – концентрації, демографічних втрат і відтворення, міграційної мобільності молоді. Встановлено, що протягом 2010-2020 рр. у Карпатському регіоні України розвиток демографічного потенціалу молоді був помірний; найбільший вплив на формування демопотенціалу регіону мали дві детермінанти – інтенсивність зовнішньої міграції (22 %) і темпи демографічного відтворення (20 %). Побудовані емпіричні показники розвитку демографічного потенціалу регіону на основі структурно-темпорального підходу підтвердила тезу про поширення деструктивнивних процесів у демографічній системі регіону, трансформації статевовікової структури населення, зменшення інтелектуально-кадрового ресурсу тощо. Доведено, що формування інформаційно-аналітичного забезпечення моніторингу демографічного потенціалу регіону, зокрема і міграційної ситуації серед молоді, є основою реалізації проактивної соціально-демографічної політики та ефективним інструментом регулювання міграційної мобільності молоді.
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El estudio identifica los vínculos entre la migración y el desarrollo endógeno, además de presentar el análisis de las áreas afectadas por los procesos migratorios, incluido el mercado laboral, la inversión, el comercio minorista y la actividad empresarial. Los modelos económicos y matemáticos del impacto de la migración en el desarrollo social (empleo, salarios, ingresos, índice de precios, gastos de los hogares) y económico (inversión extranjera, valor agregado, actividad económica extranjera, productividad laboral) se proponen y prueban con el ejemplo de las regiones occidentales de Ucrania. El estudio confirma la hipótesis de que la intensificación de la migración externa de la población tiene consecuencias tanto negativas como positivas para el desarrollo social y económico endógeno.Las medidas de la política estatal para minimizar riesgos y amenazas, y reforzar la influencia positiva de la migración en el desarrollo social y económico de las regiones de Ucrania.
Based on the multiple regression model and scenario approach to forecasting, the article estimates the Ukrainian migration aspirations towards Germany (the scale of migration, the economic activity of migrants, and their economic benefits). It is argued that major transformations in the gender-age structure of the German population may cause a demographic crisis and labour market imbalances. Our projections indicate the growing role of foreign human resources in the German economy. When modeling the scale of emigration from Ukraine, an integrated approach is applied, considering not only trends of pull-push factors but also special aspects of the German migration policy and the outflow of 8–10 million Ukrainian migrant workers. Given the poor statistical data on the scale of labour emigration needed for constructing reliable econometric models, the use of expert forecasting method remains the most optimal technique for assessing potential migration flows and migration systems.
Migrants all over the world have left multiple traces in different countries, and this cultural heritage is of growing interest to researchers and to the migrant communities themselves. Cultural heritage institutions, however, have dwindling funds and resources to meet the demand for the heritage of immigrant communities to be protected. In this article we propose that the key to bridging this gap is to be found in new possibilities that are opened up if resources are linked to enable digital exploration of archival records and collections. In particular, we focus on the value of building a composite and distributed resource around migrants’ life courses. If this approach is used and dispersed collections held by heritage institutions can be linked, migrant communities can have access to detailed information about their families and researchers to a wealth of data—serial and qualitative—for sophisticated and innovative research. Not only does the scattered data become more usable and manageable, it becomes more visible and coherent; patterns can be discovered that were not apparent before. We use the Dutch-Australian collaborative project “Migrant: Mobilities and Connection” as an example and case study of this life course–centered methodology and propose that this may develop into a migration heritage template for migrants worldwide.
Unresolved problems of social and economic development of Ukraine, exacerbated by critical negative consequences of military aggression and political instability, are accompanied by deep socio-economic contradictions and aggravation of large-scale social problems. At the same time, the qualitative system of social security, characteristic of the EU, is not formed. As a result, negative phenomena and trends are accumulated in social sphere there that manifest themselves in the critical deformations of social development, with the formation of threats of degradation and depopulation, the increase of environmental problems, deterioration of social structure, weakening of social guarantees of human rights that are evidenced and confirmed by mass and active labour migration of the Ukrainians abroad. Ensuring Ukraine’s social security objectively requires an in-depth study based on a systematic approach, applying EU principles, provisions, practices, and standards. The purpose is to substantiate approaches and means of convergence of social security of Ukraine and the EU and develop recommendations for the improvement of migration policy. Methodology. As the methodological basis of the study, theories of socio-economic growth, modern concepts of institutional and structural economic reforms have been worked out, methods of statistical, structural-functional, and system analysis, grouping have been applied. Results. The imbalances of social security of Ukraine and the EU have been determined according to the following components: labour market and employment of population; reproduction of population and labour potential of the state; migration and food security. Areas of accelerated asymmetry increase in the social development of Ukraine and the EU, which serve as a key factor in “pushing out” the population and high rates of labour migration from Ukraine to the EU Member States, have been identified. Strategic approaches and means of equalizing critical deformations and convergence of the system of social security of Ukraine in the process of integration into the EU have been determined; tools for improving the state migration policy have been developed, which implementation would result in improvement of the systemic and structural characteristics of labour potential migration. Conclusion. The study results obtained represent the existence of significant disparities in key indicators and components of the social security system of Ukraine and the EU. Low level of living standards and social protection of population serves as a factor in increasing the scope of external labour migration and, correspondingly, a critical weakening of human and labour potential of the state. Tools and means of the state policy of convergence of the social security system of Ukraine and the EU should focus on achieving the goal of systemic development of human capital and be implemented in the following directions: ensuring demographic security, upgrading health care system, renovating the quality of education, preserving cultural values, establishing a competitive labour market, improving housing affordability, social infrastructure development, systemic social insurance of population.
Kauno technologijos universitetas Laisvės al. 55, LT-44309, Kaunas This article investigates Lithuanian "brain drain" causes: push and pull factors and its manifestation be-tween different migrant groups. Traditionally interna-tional labour migration is interpreted as a response to the existing gaps in wage levels between countries. But the causes of migration should not be simplified to eco-nomic (usually wage/income) conditions. Even if eco-nomic factors dominate in most countries migratory processes, migration flows of each country are still influ-enced by the specific conditions or changes in local economy as well as country's historical perspective. Therefore migration determinants might be different in separate countries, especially when talking about highly-skilled migration. Perception of dominating factors in the Lithuania's highly-skilled migration is needed to obtain an objective evaluation of the "brain drain" problem and to solve it in proper ways. Empirical research gives us a general picture of a Lithuanian highly-skilled migrant as being a young per-son with higher skills who treats his or her socio-economic status at rather satisfactory level before depar-ture and is more inspired by pull effects. Factor analysis reveals us four main factors of inter-related variables in Lithuania's highly-skilled migration: professional attraction in foreign countries, socio-economic conditions having mostly push effects, state academic system and collaboration manifesting itself both in push and pull effects, and state macroeconomic conditions and governmental policy showing mostly mi-grants' discontent with the general situation of Lithua-nia. Other factors such as ecological conditions and fam-ily reunification play much lesser role in this phenome-non of brain drain. The article consist of two parts: first part deals with the concept of "brain drain" and its recent tendencies, in the second part Lithuanian brain drain causes: push and pull factors and their manifestation between different mi-grant groups are investigated.
Scholars and activists have hypothesized a connection between environmental change and out-migration. In this paper we test this hypothesis using data from Nepal. We operationalize environmental change in terms of declining land cover, rising times required to gather organic inputs, increasing population density, and perceived declines in agricultural productivity. In general, environmental change is more strongly related to short- than long-distance moves. Holding constant the effects of other social and economic variables, we find that local moves are predicted by perceived declines in productivity, declining land cover, and increasing time required to gather firewood. Long-distance moves are predicted by perceived declines in productivity, but the effect is weaker than in the model of short-distance mobility. We also show that effects of environmental change vary by gender and ethnicity, with women being more affected by changes in the time required to gather fodder and men by changes in the time to gather firewood, and high caste Hindus generally being less affect than others by environmental change.
The article summarizes the current state and main trends of external migration of the population from Ukraine to the Republic of Poland, in particular in the aspect of labor migration. The political and legal regime of border crossing between countries is described. The characteristics of key economic and social parameters that determine the migration environment in the Ukraine – Poland system are given. Indicators of border crossing by Ukrainians to Poland, residence of Ukrainian citizens on the territory of Poland, their place in the gender structure of the population of this country, naturalization are given. The results of the analysis of tendency characteristics of external labor migration from Ukraine to the Republic of Poland in terms of the number of submitted applications and received permits for temporary stay and employment of Ukrainians in Poland are reflected. The specifics, as well as problematic aspects of external labor migration from Ukraine to Poland in the context of socio-economic development of countries, as well as European integration of Ukraine. The shortcomings of increasing labor migration from Ukraine to Poland, such as the rapid increase in the number of Ukrainian citizens living in Poland, including in the structure of foreigners, have been identified; increasing the number and increasing the dynamics of applications submitted and permits obtained for temporary stay of Ukrainians in Poland, especially for reasons of work and study; growing intentions of Ukrainians and increasing the number of permits obtained for the right to perform long-term work in Poland; further strengthening the attitudes and attitudes of Ukrainians regarding the intensification of their plans and intentions regarding the implementation of various forms of migration to Poland; increase in the number of naturalization practices of Ukrainian citizens by Poland, which is evidence of the growing threat not only of high migration rates, but also changes in citizenship by domestic migrants. The practical significance of the research results lies in the formation of information and analytical support for the formation and implementation of state policy regulating migration processes in the migration system Ukraine – EU to accelerate Ukraine’s European integration processes and realize the potential of socio-economic development. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the scientific approach to solving the problem of development and realization of migration potential in the Ukraine – EU system on the example of the recipient – the leader in attracting labor migrants from Ukraine – the Republic of Poland.
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