Technical ReportPDF Available
Osun 2022 Governorship Election Campaign Monitoring Report Issue 10, July 15, 2022
Positive Agenda Nigeria
…making environment conducive for everyone to thrive positively
Informed Policy Engagement or Intensive
Personality Disparagement in Osun 2022
Governorship Election Campaign?
Osun 2022 Governorship
Election Campaign Monitoring Report
Issue 10, July 15, 2022
Osun 2022 Governorship Election Campaign Monitoring Report Issue 10, July 15, 2022
Introduction
By July 16th, 2022, registered voters in Osun State will elect a new governor to lead the
state from November 2022, when the tenure of Alhaji Gboyega Oyetola expires
1
. Governor
Oyetola was elected in 2018 to succeed Engineer Rauf Aregbesola. Since the Independent
National Electoral Commission (INEC) declared the official date for electorate to be at the
poll, and hinted that primary election would commence in February and end in March
2022, political parties and candidates have been campaigning, informing the electorate
why they should be voted for. Though INEC approved April 2022 as the month for the
official campaign, our observations of various campaign platforms in the state revealed
that concerned stakeholders started internal campaigns before the month. The All
Progressives Congress (APC) officially inaugurated its Campaign Council in May 2022,
while the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) initiated its committee in April 2022
2
. There
have been a number of mixed results since the incumbent governor took office in 2018,
employing the state's human and material resources to generate and preserve public
goods. In terms of socio-economic growth, the governor has adamantly maintained that
he fulfilled nearly all of his pledges in 2018 and that voters should re-elect him to continue
working for the good of all citizens and communities
3
. His opponents, both within and
outside his political party (APC), say he has accomplished little and hence should not be
re-elected. Since the national electoral body lifted the ban on campaign activities, these
two lines of thought have been part of the campaign. Similar to what characterized
previous electoral campaigns held since 1999, political actors have started raising various
concerns ahead of the July election. There have been allegations of vote buying, use of
thugs to disrupt campaign venues and harm attendees, as well as threat to life.
Although all these issues can affect the credibility of the July 16th, 2022 poll, our analysts
believe that the issue of vote buying requires specific attention of concerned stakeholders,
1
INEC (2022). Osun State Governorship 2022 Timetable and Schedule of Activities. https://inecnigeria.org/osun-
state-governorship-2022-timetable-and-schedule-of-activities/.
2
Dada, L., (2022). Osun Guber: Senate spokesperson named DG Oyetola’s campaign council. The Sun, May 5, 2022.
https://www.sunnewsonline.com/osun-guber-senate-spokesperson-named-dg-oyetolas-campaign-council/;
Ezedinuo, F. (2022). Osun 2022: PDP inaugurates campaign, anti-rigging committees. Daily Post, April 26, 2022.
https://dailypost.ng/2022/04/26/osun-2022-pdp-inaugurates-campaign-anti-rigging-committees/.
3
Amata, D., (2022). Osun 2022: 6 Key Socio-Economic Indicators Candidates and Electorates Should Know, available
from: https://www.dataphyte.com/latest-reports/elections/osun-2022-6-key-socio-economic-indicators-candidates-
and-electorates-should-know/
1
Osun 2022 Governorship Election Campaign Monitoring Report Issue 10, July 15, 2022
most importantly the electoral body and citizens. Vote buying is one of the strategies
usually deployed by political actors such as candidates, their representatives, direct and
indirect supporters; throughout the previous governorship elections in the state, it was
employed by the stakeholders using different approaches. Events that characterised the
elections of 2014 and 2018 attest to this fact. During the 2014 gubernatorial election, the
two leading parties in the election, the ruling APC and the opposition PDP, engaged in
unethical electoral practice. Popular mechanisms of vote-buying before and during the
previous elections include pre-election hand-outs such as food and money; infrastructural
projects in targeted electoral districts; as well as provision of incentives to
voters/supporters to attend polling. In line with this background, this report, which is the
tenth output and the final weekly report of the 2022 governorship election campaign
monitoring in the state, specifically considers campaign strategies employed by
candidates, parties and their supporters, most importantly members of the media team
of the parties and the candidates, for communicating these issues and engaging the
potential electorate ahead of the July election. The strategies were examined within the
context of the intended and unintended outcomes of the messages spread on social
networking sites (Facebook and Twitter) and political actors’ interactions with the
conventional media (newspapers and presentation of party as well as candidate’s agenda
through radio jingles in the state). The incumbent government's policy issues or
programmes were also looked at, with the idea that opposition parties should use them to
engage the public by offering alternatives or discussing recognized flaws.
Our Approach
Messages posted on Facebook and Twitter by the political parties through their official
pages, candidates’ pages and supporters’ personal accounts, radio jingles, as well as news
stories were the primary sources of data for this report. Osun public information seeking
about campaign issues or needs through various search engines, which are aggregated by
Google Trends, also constituted a source of data for the report. In all, the data were
sourced between April 6 and July 13, 2022. On a surprising note, between June 9 and
June 15 (covering the sixth week), our analyst found a message communicated by faction
members of the ruling party (APC). This singlehandedly added to our number of political
parties being monitored every week, but only from the intra-party type. In addition to the
2
Osun 2022 Governorship Election Campaign Monitoring Report Issue 10, July 15, 2022
public searches of the issues and/or needs, views of the electorate in the three senatorial
districts (Osun Central, Osun West and East) about the campaign activities were equally
sought through questionnaire copies distributed across the districts. Like what has been
monitoring, in week ten, our analysts paid specific attention to campaign-driven
messages (not general messages), especially those promoting activities of the incumbent
governor, and mere social engagements of the candidates that were not related to political
activities. Attacks, acclaims and defenses were the three categories of campaign strategies
our analysts looked for in each message extracted from Facebook, Twitter, radio jingles
and national newspapers, and campaign speeches. Attacks were the messages that
denigrated the personality traits of candidates and leadership qualities and/or
competencies of the parties and candidates to govern the state. Attacks were also
examined from the perspective of the actors, demeaning the quality of programmes, and
initiatives and projects of the incumbent. Acclaims were the messages that show that the
parties and the candidates were better in terms of personality traits, leadership qualities
as well as competencies in delivering quality public goods to the residents. Defenses were
the messages that refuted negative elements pushed out by actors against other
candidates and political parties. In this context, our analysts looked for traces which
established that members of the opposition and the ruling camps defended what were
considered negatives and/or not true about the personality traits, leadership styles and
competencies of the candidates and political parties.
The focus of the weekly monitoring is to find informed policy engagement or intensive
personality disparagement. In this regard, highly informed policy engagement which
means mentioning a particular policy or programme, citing the location of the programme
or when the policy was implemented, and discussing its consequences on the targeted
beneficiaries or communities, were formulated. Moderately informed policy engagement
represents a message that contains a specific policy or programme and cites the location
or discusses its impacts. No message can fit this category without having at least two of
the elements associated with highly informed policy engagement metric. Slightly
informed policy engagement metric entails a message that has one of the three elements
associated with highly informed policy engagement metric. For the personality
assessment, we considered highly intensive personality disparagement, moderately
3
Osun 2022 Governorship Election Campaign Monitoring Report Issue 10, July 15, 2022
intensive personality disparagement, slightly intensive personality disparagement and
none intensive personality disparagement. A message falls into highly intensive
personality disparagement when it has elements that establish a lack of competence of a
candidate, incomplete educational qualifications, and previous history of poor
management of resources either in a private or public establishment. Moderately
intensive personality disparagement was measured with the consideration of two of the
three elements of highly intensive personality disparagement metric, while slightly
intensive personality disparagement denotes a message that has only one of the three
elements. None intensive personality disparagement specifically represents an absence
of all the three elements. Threats to credible poll is the main metric with a focus on vote-
buying, rigging through political thugs, rigging through collusion with the electoral body,
and rigging through collusion with security agencies. Representations of these sub-
metrics are premised on the trends discussed earlier. Apart from the campaign strategies
(attacks, acclaims and defenses), infrastructure, social programmes, workers’ salary,
welfare and employment, agriculture, economy, education, health, security and others
were created as campaign issues or policies that the parties and their supporters need to
address for the electorate to make an informed decision on July 16th, 2022.
Beyond considering the issues political actors and their supporters discussed with the
public weekly, we also examined public information seeking on issues and/or needs. The
focus was on economy, health, security, education, road, employment, agriculture and
salary. Public interest in these issues and/or needs were gathered through the volume of
searches normalised by Google Trends. This tool was able to normalise information
seeking of people in Ede, Iwo, Abeere, Ife, Osogbo, Ojudo, Ilesa, Edunabon, Ila-Orangun,
Ipetu-Jesa, Efon-Alaaye, Ikirun and Apomu throughout the ten-week period of
monitoring the campaign activities of the actors. During data collection, our analysts
discovered that media teams of some political parties and candidates deliberately shared
the same messages across the media types we examined. This is most evident among the
new media team of the ruling party (APC). We also discerned a similar pattern among
some supporters, who have dedicated Facebook pages for their candidates. The campaign
strategies and issues/or policies were reliably checked using stability and reproducibility
approaches. A member of the research team coded the messages several times while
4
Osun 2022 Governorship Election Campaign Monitoring Report Issue 10, July 15, 2022
another member repeated the process of coding the messages. The outcome indicated a
strong level of agreement in line with what each campaign strategy and issue and/or
policy represented.
Key Results
The ten weeks of monitoring the campaign activities resulted in the gathering of 1,235
relevant messages from the sources explained earlier. In week one, a total of 60 messages
which amounted to 4.90% of the entire messages (n=1,235) was gathered. This increased
to 85 messages (6.90%) in week two. The gathering of the relevant messages improved by
less than 1% in week three. According to the generated messages, 92 messages were found
relevant during the week. This represents 7.40% of the total messages (n=1,235). In week
four, the number of relevant messages dipped by less than 1%, similar to the same level
of percentage increase recorded in week three. During this week (week four), 81 messages
representing 6.60% were gathered. It reduced further in week five based on 46 messages
(3.70%) that were collected. However, in week six, the number of relevant messages
started improving in line with the level of percentage increase had in week four. According
to our dataset, 80 (6.50%) and 145 (11.70%) relevant messages were found between week
six and week seven. The relevant messages reduced from 11.70% recorded in week seven
to 11.30% in week eight. There was a significant increase between week nine
(241=19.50%) and week ten (265=21.50%). This, according to our analysts, was due to
intensive activities of the political parties, which involved mega rallies at the state capital
and governorship debates organised by radio and television stations in the state and
outside the state.
Overall, for the 10 weeks of monitoring, 529 (42.80%) relevant messages were found for
the ruling party. The People’s Democratic Party slightly led all the political parties with
532 messages representing 43.10%. Among other opposition parties, with 61 messages
(4.90%), Accord followed the ruling party while Labour Party followed with 60 messages
which amounted to 4.85% as well as SDP (2.70%) of the total messages (n=1,235). In
terms of campaign strategy, a total of 1,248 traces were found for the entire ten weeks
against 982 traces that were found for the last nine weeks. Of the 1,248 traces, 46.31%
were acclaims while 7.77% and 45.91% were defenses and attacks respectively. Week-by-
week analysis indicates that acclaims increased from 4.67% in week one to 21.79% in week
5
Osun 2022 Governorship Election Campaign Monitoring Report Issue 10, July 15, 2022
ten. Attacks strategy equally increased from 7.32% that was recorded in week one to
20.24% in week ten. There was also a significant increase in the deployment of defenses
strategy. From its use at 7.21% in week one to 24.74% in week ten, it is glaring that the
political actors prioritised it along with acclaims and attacks strategy. According to our
analysts, the increase in the three strategies over the weeks indicates that political actors
employed the strategies as the campaign got hotter with the intention of winning voters’
minds through the defenses and acclaims strategy more than the attacks strategy.
Exhibit 1: Campaign strategies by week
4
Source: Positive Agenda Nigeria, 2022
Campaign issues and/or policies engagement
From week one to week ten, personality issues of the candidates, competence or lack of it
of the candidates, assassination attempts or threats to life, defection, political thuggery,
and vote-buying among others were significantly discussed at the expense of informing
potential voters of the need to vote for candidates based on their abilities and capabilities
to address existing practical problems on health, education, security, agriculture,
economy, social programmes, infrastructure, workers’ salary, welfare and employment
under our “other category metric”. Like what dominated other category in week nine, for
this week, actors, especially those from the media teams of the political parties, believed
that their candidates would emerge victorious because of their leadership style quality
4
Key: Acclaims=578; Defenses =97; Attacks=573
6
Osun 2022 Governorship Election Campaign Monitoring Report Issue 10, July 15, 2022
and competence. Defection and possible defeat were also debated without forgetting
deliberation on vote-buying. The assassination attempt raised by the Labour Party’s
candidate (Honourable Lasun Yusuf) and the fire incident at the residence of the Accord
Party’s candidate (Dr Akin Ogunbiyi) were also equally discussed across the media
sources.
Exhibit 2: Dominant Issues in the Other Category
Source: Positive Agenda Nigeria, 2022
Exhibit 3 contains the link that exists among vote, candidate and victory with each of the
dominant issues. For example, victory was mainly discussed in connection with
Honourable Lasun Yusuf in relation to voting for him during the July 16 poll. The
discussion of vote was not only associated with him. Political actors ensured deliberation
on the need to vote other candidates as well. However, the examination of the linkages
shows that voting candidate was more discussed along with choosing the People’s
Democratic Party within the other category metric than other political parties. This
emanated mainly from the main opposition party media handlers and supporters.
Handlers and supporters of the ruling party concentrated their resources on informing
the public and electorate about the competence of the incumbent governor and stating
the potential defeat of the main opposition party (PDP). In all, the ruling party had more
7
Osun 2022 Governorship Election Campaign Monitoring Report Issue 10, July 15, 2022
messages that fell within the other category metric than the opposition parties. This is
clearly established in the subsequent analyses where the party (APC) had a high level of
percentage in discussing unrelated issues and/or needs across campaign strategy and
media types.
Exhibit 3: Interconnectivity of Dominant Issues in the Other Category
Source: Positive Agenda Nigeria, 2022
According to the data presented in Exhibit 4, actors have continued to discuss issues and
needs that are not relevant to the election. This could be gleaned from the figures in
Exhibit 5 where a large percentage of 325 and 315 messages gathered between weeks nine
and ten were mainly on unrelated topics. Nevertheless, our analysis reveals that between
week nine and week ten, security and workers’ salary, welfare and employment were
discussed mostly. However, the actors maintained the same level of percentage of
discussing education, workers’ salary, welfare and employment, and economy in week ten
(see Exhibit 4). A similar pattern was observed for the discussion of infrastructure and
workers’ salary, welfare and employment in week nine. The week-by-week analysis
further reveals that the discussion of health, education, infrastructure, economy, and
social programmes reduced between week nine and week ten. Surprisingly, the discussion
of agriculture by actors reduced drastically after picking up significantly from week seven
8
Osun 2022 Governorship Election Campaign Monitoring Report Issue 10, July 15, 2022
to week nine against the poor attention it received between week five and week six (see
Exhibit 4).
Exhibit 4: Campaign and/or Policy Issues by week
Source: Positive Agenda Nigeria, 2022
Similar to the data presented in Exhibit 4, data in Exhibit 5 reveals the volume of
information Osun residents sought about the campaign issues/and or needs. Across the
weeks, analysis shows that in week nine, Osun public sought information about salary,
economy, security and health. Comparing this with the data presented in Exhibit 4, it
emerged that political actors only aligned with the public interest in the area of security.
Based on this result, our analysts note that the actors failed to key into the public interest
at the end of the campaign activities. This result is further enhanced with the data
presented in Exhibit 6 based on the views expressed by over 300 electorate from three
senatorial districts in the state about the categories of messages they have been receiving
from candidates and political parties since April 2022. The majority of the electorate
stated that they have watched, seen, read and listened to messages that focused on issues
and/or needs within the education, economy, health, security, and workers’ salary,
welfare and employment than getting significant messages on infrastructure, agriculture
and social programmes.
Exhibit 5: Issues and/or needs searched by Osun Public based by week
Source: Positive Agenda Nigeria, 2022
9
Osun 2022 Governorship Election Campaign Monitoring Report Issue 10, July 15, 2022
Exhibit 6: Dominant areas/sectors of engagement according to electorate
5
Source: Osun 2022 Election Survey; Positive Agenda Nigeria, 2022
Meanwhile, further probing of the electorate about the level at which the political actors
addressed issues and/or needs in the identified areas in Exhibit 6 throughout the ten
weeks of monitoring indicates a slight change in the identification of the areas and/or
sectors the actors considered the most. Over 80% of the 342 electorate indicated economy
and security as the areas where actors have discussed the challenges and needs of the
people. Over 60% of the electorate also believed that actors have significantly discussed
issues and/or needs related to health, infrastructure and education. However, more than
half of the electorate reported that actors did not address issues and expectations of the
public significantly while engaging the public in the course of discussing agricultural-
related challenges and needs. This also applies to workers’ salary, welfare and
employment as well as social programmes (see Exhibit 7).
5
Sampled electorate were asked to pick more than one category
10
Osun 2022 Governorship Election Campaign Monitoring Report Issue 10, July 15, 2022
Exhibit 7: Areas/sectors where issues and/or needs are greatly addressed by political actors
according to electorate
6
Analysis of the electorate’s views further reveals that the majority (84.30%) will vote for
candidates and political parties that addressed issues and/or needs of the people. We also
found that candidates and political parties that disparage personality would not be
considered during the poll. This is also applicable to political parties and candidates found
to have engaged political thugs before and during the election to cause violence across the
state. Though the percentage is small, some sampled electorate are likely to vote for
candidates and political parties that give them money and materials. This further
reinforces the need for a rigorous anti-vote selling campaign.
6
342 electorate
11
Osun 2022 Governorship Election Campaign Monitoring Report Issue 10, July 15, 2022
Exhibit 8: Electorate’s Will Vote Versus Will Not Vote Decision
Source: Osun 2022 Election Survey; Positive Agenda Nigeria, 2022
The ten-week period indicates that across media types (Facebook, Twitter, radio jingles,
campaign speech, and newspapers), the identified campaign issues/policies were
discussed on Facebook, Twitter, in the newspapers and in the radio jingles more than
during the campaign rallies. Actors mostly deployed Twitter for discussing issues/needs
that were not directly related to governance. This is also observed on Facebook and in the
newspapers. While social media (Facebook and Twitter) were employed for discussing
unrelated issues and/or needs, analysis shows that radio jingles were less used for this.
Jingles were mostly employed for communicating what have been and will be done in the
areas of education, infrastructure, and workers’ welfare, salary and employment.
Exhibit 9: Campaign and/or Policy Issues by Media Types
Source: Positive Agenda Nigeria, 2022
From the cumulative report of week nine to the current cumulative report (week ten),
there are some levels of changes in the deployment of media categories we have been
monitoring since April 2022. In the cumulative nine-week report, it was reported that the
actors deployed attacks strategy by 53.39% on Facebook. In the current report, the use of
12
Osun 2022 Governorship Election Campaign Monitoring Report Issue 10, July 15, 2022
the strategy was found at 51.65% of the total messages that established the attacks
strategy. This indicates a relative reduction in the use of the strategy. On this medium,
defenses were also found to reduce from 30.13% recorded in the week nine report to
28.86% in the current report. Acclaims strategy reduced from 47.34% in week nine to
39.10% in week ten. In the newspapers, defenses strategy increased relatively between
week nine and week ten. In week nine, it was used by 47.94% while it was found at 48.45%
in week ten.
Exhibit 10: Campaign Strategies across Media Types
7
Source: Positive Agenda Nigeria, 2022
Apart from our interest in how the actors deployed the strategies across the media types,
we were also interested in knowing which of the media had been predominantly used to
create awareness or report possible threats to the July 16 poll in Osun State. The outcome
of the analysis was presented in Exhibit 9, where it was revealed that the identified threats
have been mainly communicated or discussed on Twitter than other sources of messages
we considered. The discussion of vote buying on Facebook reduced from 30.23% in week
7
Key: Attacks=573, Acclaims=578, Defenses=97
13
Osun 2022 Governorship Election Campaign Monitoring Report Issue 10, July 15, 2022
nine to 25.00% in the current week. However, in the newspaper, the discussion was
intensified as it took the second position among other threats that were debated through
the medium. There was also a slight reduction in the extent of using Facebook for
discussing rigging through political thugs. In week nine, the issue was discussed at a
27.77% level while it reduced to 20.00% in week ten. Actors increased their discussion of
rigging through collusion with the electoral body on Facebook, which was first recorded
in week nine. Rigging through collusion with security agencies was mostly discussed on
Twitter, Facebook and in the newspapers.
Exhibit 11: Threats to Credible Poll across Media Types
8
Source: Positive Agenda Nigeria, 2022
The ruling party remains the only political party that significantly engaged the public
across the campaign issues and/or needs throughout the ten weeks. The party discussed
what it had done in the areas of health, infrastructure, workers’ salary, welfare and
employment and social programmes more than telling the public what it intended to do
differently if elected for another four years. As stated previously, the actors engaged the
public on issues and/or needs that are not based on the needs of the public as well as
challenges they are facing. For instance, the contextual analysis of the ruling party’s
engagement clearly shows a discussion of performance and asking the public to vote again
8
Vote buying=52, Rigging through political thugs=25, Rigging through collusion with electoral body=17,
Rigging through collusion with security agencies=11
14
Osun 2022 Governorship Election Campaign Monitoring Report Issue 10, July 15, 2022
for the continuation of what it is doing. The People’s Democratic Party is the only
opposition party, according to our dataset, that trailed the ruling party in terms of
engaging the public. While the ruling party has been discussing some critical issues and
needs, the main opposition party had largely deployed its resources towards debating
unrelated issues and needs (see our earlier definition of “other category metric”). Despite
this, the party (PDP) has relatively engaged the public by discussing issues and needs
within agriculture, health, workers’ salary, welfare and employment, and the economy
more than other expectations of the public. Like the ruling party, our dataset reveals that
the party and its supporters only discussed the issues and/or needs in relation to
personality disparagement with less emphasis on what the candidate (Senator Nurudeen
Ademola Adeleke) and the party will do differently. In some campaign or policy issues
discussion, Accord and Labour Party slightly engaged the public (see Exhibit 12).
Exhibit 12: Campaign and/or Policy Issues by Political Parties
Source: Positive Agenda Nigeria, 2022
A total 1,886 traces of campaign strategies were found across campaign issues and/or
policies against 1,543 traces discovered for week nine. Of 1,886 traces, 34.51% were
associated with attacks, while 56.89% and 8.58% resonated with our definitions of
acclaims and defenses respectively. Further analysis establishes that the three strategies
were predominantly employed while actors discussed others category (see earlier
definition of others for more components of the category), infrastructure, economy,
workers’ salary, welfare and employment. The use of attacks strategy for discussing
unrelated issues and needs increased from 54.24% had in week nine to 57.29% in week
15
Osun 2022 Governorship Election Campaign Monitoring Report Issue 10, July 15, 2022
ten. Defenses also improved from 41.22% to 45.67% while acclaims increased from
34.45% recorded in the previous week to 38.76% in the current week. With the use of the
strategies mostly in infrastructure, economy and issues/needs related to human capital
development, our analysts note that both the ruling and the opposition parties believe
that the areas are more connected with people than others. Hence, the need to prove,
defend and attack ideas were necessary in order to significantly secure the relative level
of public share of minds ahead of the election.
Exhibit 13: Campaign Strategies across Campaign and/or Policy Issues
9
Source: Positive Agenda Nigeria, 2022
We were equally interested in knowing which of the political parties employed the
strategies significantly throughout the ten weeks of monitoring. Further analysis indicates
that the People’s Democratic Party attacked more than acclaimed and defended, while the
Labour Party and Accord only acclaimed. The Social Democratic Party was the only party
that acclaimed significantly throughout the weeks instead of attacking and defending.
With the addition of week ten data, the ruling party’s use of defense strategy reduced from
67.12% to 67.01% (see Exhibit 14). Acclaims strategy of the party equally dipped from
9
Key: Acclaims= 1073, Defenses=162, Attacks=651
16
Osun 2022 Governorship Election Campaign Monitoring Report Issue 10, July 15, 2022
53.98% to 47.40%. The same pattern was also found for attack strategy deployment,
where the level of utilizing it reduced from 35.88% to 34.20%. According to our analysts,
this suggests that the party slightly returned to its earlier position of running issue-based
campaigns after failing to uphold the pledge in week eight. The main opposition party
increased its deployment of attacks and defense strategies after jettisoning them slightly
in week eight. From 57.33% to 59.59%, attacks strategy deployment of the party
increased. With a slight increase (from 28.98% to 30.79%), the party was also found to
appropriate acclaims strategy relatively in week ten. However, the party’s use of defenses
strategy reduced slightly in week ten from 30.13% attained in week nine to 29.89% in the
current week. The three campaign strategies were appropriated slightly by the Labour
Party and Accord in week nine. In week nine, at 3.98% the partly deployed acclaims
strategy. This increased to 8.30% in the current week. This also applies to the use of
defenses and attacks. Accord reduced its use of acclaims and attacks strategy from 7.74%
(acclaims) in week nine to 6.92% (acclaims) in week ten. The use of attacks strategy by
the party equally reduced from 3.50% in week nine to 2.96% in week ten (see Exhibit 14)
Exhibit 14: Campaign Strategies across Political Parties
Source: Positive Agenda Nigeria, 2022
17
Osun 2022 Governorship Election Campaign Monitoring Report Issue 10, July 15, 2022
From all the previous analyses, it is obvious that the actors deployed the campaign
strategies differently. The ruling party prioritised defenses and acclaims over attacks
while the opposition party, especially the People’s Democratic Party, largely deployed
attacks as a strategy. This position led our analysts to further examine the number of
times all the parties deployed the strategies during the ten weeks. While discussing
unrelated needs and issues, actors extensively deployed attacks strategy. The strategy was
used more than 40 times by the actors. Acclaims strategy was used more than 20 times in
the course of discussing or engaging the public on workers’ salary, welfare and
employment. The same strategy was also significantly employed while discussing
challenges, issues and needs within infrastructure and economy. Surprisingly, the
strategy was not employed significantly for unearthing various challenges and needs
related to education, agriculture and social programmes. The defenses strategy was more
used for debating challenges and needs associated with infrastructure and economy than
other categories of campaign and/or policy issues (see Exhibit 15).
Exhibit 15: Number of times parties deployed campaign strategies across campaign
issues/policies
Source: Positive Agenda Nigeria, 2022
Policy Engagement or Personality Disparagement
We discovered that the ruling party was better at informed policy engagement and less
intensive in disparaging the personality of the opponents. The leading opposition party
(PDP) slightly engaged the policies or programmes of the current administration while it
18
Osun 2022 Governorship Election Campaign Monitoring Report Issue 10, July 15, 2022
moderately disparaged the personality of the ruling party’s candidate and the party itself
(see Exhibits 16 and 17). A total of 737 traces of informed policy engagement were
discovered. Less than 10% of the total was highly informed policy engagement. This
indicates that parties, media handlers and supporters deployed moderately and slightly
informed policy engagement metrics. According to our analysis, 38.80% of the total traces
(n=737) were moderately informed policy engagement while 53.32% were slightly
informed policy engagement. Further analysis of the levels of policy engagement across
campaign issues and/or policies shows mixed results for others as a category. Parties and
their supporters slightly and highly engaged potential electorate when discussing
infrastructure, health, and workers’ welfare, salary and employment. From the data in
Exhibit 16, it is clear that actors only succeeded in engaging the public better while
discussing infrastructure, health and unrelated issues.
Exhibit 16: Levels of policy engagement by party
10
Source: Positive Agenda Nigeria, 2022
10
Key: Highly Informed Policy Engagement=24, Moderately Informed Policy Engagement=94, Slightly Informed
Policy Engagement=185
19
Osun 2022 Governorship Election Campaign Monitoring Report Issue 10, July 15, 2022
Exhibit 17: Levels of policy engagement by campaign issues and/or policies
11
Source: Positive Agenda Nigeria, 2022
Since April, our analysis has constantly revealed that the main opposition party recorded
mixed and unstable results in terms of personality disparagement. It has usually deployed
a highly intensive personality disparagement metric and less use of none intensive
personality disparagement metric. However, in one of the previous cumulative reports,
both the ruling and the main opposition party closed in terms of deploying a highly
intensive personality disparagement metric. During the week, it was reported that the
parties had a 46.15% level of disparagement using the metric. Looking at the current data,
it emerged that the PDP employed highly intensive personality disparagement more than
the ruling party and other political parties.
11
Key: Highly Informed Policy Engagement=58, Moderately Informed Policy Engagement=286, Slightly Informed
Policy Engagement=393
Osun 2022 Governorship Election Campaign Monitoring Report Issue 10, July 15, 2022
Exhibit 18: Levels of personality disparagement by party
12
Source: Positive Agenda Nigeria, 2022
It also emerged that the main opposition party moderately disparaged the personality of
the ruling party’s candidate, his performance and political party. In all of these metrics,
the ruling party seems to be better than the opposition parties based on a comparison of
the week-nine cumulative report with the week-ten cumulative report. The level at which
the ruling party deployed a moderately intensive personality disparagement metric
increased from 34.45% to 37.50% while the PDP equally increased its application from
57.98% to 62.50%. The level of increase recorded by the ruling party while employing
highly intensive and moderately intensive personality disparagement was a result of its
significant less use of none intensive personality disparagement. According to our
analysis, the party’s deployment of non-intensive personality disparagement reduced
from 55.02%, during the last week’s cumulative report, to 50.54% attained in the current
report. This pattern was not observed in the main opposition party’s deployment of the
personality disparagement category. According to our dataset and analysis, the
opposition party achieved 29.90% of its appropriation in the previous report and 32.36%
for the current report (see Exhibit 18). Analysis suggests that the party prioritised
moderately intensive personality disparagement more than none intensive personality
disparagement. Our results of the electorate survey show that out of the 342 electorate
12
Key: Highly Intensive Personality Disparagement=17, Moderately Intensive Personality Disparagement=128,
Slightly Intensive Personality Disparagement=364, None Intensive Personality Disparagement=550
21
Osun 2022 Governorship Election Campaign Monitoring Report Issue 10, July 15, 2022
who responded to the question about the level of personality disparagement by political
parties, candidates and their supporters since April 2022, 90.30% instead of 90.60% (of
309 electorate recorded in week nine) said the stakeholders had extensively attacked
personality rather than addressing issues and/or needs of the people. Implications of
their views have been previously stated when they were further asked what they would do
as personality disparagement continues between the ruling and opposition parties,
especially the People’s Democratic Party and their failure to address important issues and
needs of the people.
Exhibit 19: Number of times parties deployed highly informed policy engagement and
intensive personality disparagement during the eight weeks
Source: Positive Agenda Nigeria, 2022
The examination of highly informed policy engagement and intensive personality
disparagement within the context of frequency of deployment reveals different patterns
across the campaign and/or policy issues. Surprisingly, analysis reveals that actors
engaged the public and potential electorate highly while discussing unrelated issues
and/or needs. This is closely followed with health, agriculture and economy. This result
is better appreciated with the outcomes presented in Exhibit 16, where the percentage
level at which the actors engaged the public and electorate extensively across campaign
issues are presented.
22
Osun 2022 Governorship Election Campaign Monitoring Report Issue 10, July 15, 2022
Threats to credible poll
The APC and PDP frequently addressed vote-buying and manipulation, citing political
thugs, among the four sub-metrics our analysts investigated under threats to credible poll
as the main metric (see Exhibit 20). Throughout the ten weeks of monitoring, a total of
105 traces of threats to the poll were discovered. Analysis reveals 49.52% for cumulative
week ten report against 55.84% of discussing vote-buying in the previous nine weeks. The
discussion of hiring or recruiting political thugs increased from 23.37% to 23.80% in the
current report. While the discussion of the possible use of political thugs by the political
actors is appreciated, the reduction in debating vote-buying has made us understand once
again that the collective effort towards addressing buying and selling of votes during the
poll is yielding the desired result. Despite this, our dataset indicates the distribution of
food materials and money to some electorate. This was discovered between week six and
week ten. The prominent ones tracked by our data collector are:
23
Osun 2022 Governorship Election Campaign Monitoring Report Issue 10, July 15, 2022
Expanding the emerged insights, our analyst notes that during week nine, there were
convergence and divergence points of discussing and perceiving potential threats to the
poll. For instance, according to the data presented in Exhibits 19 and 20, political actors
see vote buying and use of political thugs as key threats while sampled electorate consider
intimidation of voters by political thugs and the do-or-die attitude of politicians as the
first and the second threats respectively to the poll. The vote-buying which is the most
threatening according to the political parties and their supporters was considered the
fourth threat by the electorate. With the addition of the week ten data, there is a gradual
shift in the identification of potential threats to the poll. For instance, in week nine,
rigging through collusion with the electoral body was at a 12.98% threshold. In the current
week, it has increased by more than 2% (to 16.19%). This also applies to rigging through
collusion with security agencies, which increased from 7.79% to 10.47%. This
incongruence is linked with the ideological difference and possible outcomes of the two
threats to the concerned stakeholders by our analysts.
24
Osun 2022 Governorship Election Campaign Monitoring Report Issue 10, July 15, 2022
Exhibit 20: Threats to credible poll according to political actors and supporters
13
Source: Positive Agenda Nigeria, 2022
From the electorate’s perspective, intimidation of voters by political thugs, do or die
syndrome of the political parties to capture political power by all means, manipulation of
votes through a secret voting system by the political elite and electoral body, and vote
buying and selling were the key threats identified during week nine of the monitoring.
Additional data of week ten indicate a similar shift recorded for political actors and
supporters’ threats identification. According to possible manipulation of the voting
process by the political elites in conjunction with the electoral body worth fearing about
while intimidation of voters by political thugs equally deserved specific attention. Do or
die syndrome of the political parties, candidates and supporters, which was identified as
the second significant threat in week nine, has occupied the third position in the
electorate’s minds. Vote buying and selling retained its fourth position attained in week
nine. According to our analysts, this further indicates that electorate do not see buying
and selling votes as what the concerned stakeholders need to worry about.
13
Key: Vote buying=25, Rigging through political thugs=13, Rigging through electoral body=5, Rigging through
security agencies=3
25
Osun 2022 Governorship Election Campaign Monitoring Report Issue 10, July 15, 2022
Exhibit 21: Threats to credible poll according to electorate
14
Source: Osun 2022 Election Survey, Positive Agenda Nigeria, 2022
The examination of the dominant threats indicates that the electorate in the Osun West
and Central districts believed that the intimidation of voters by political thugs and vote
buying as well as selling would occur in the districts (see Exhibit 22). Our analysis,
through the views of the electorate in Osun Central and Osun West districts show that
members of political parties are likely to be used as people who would be distributing
money to electorate for buying their (voters) votes for a particular candidate (see Exhibit
23). In line with this result, our analysts point out that security agencies, corrupt practices
and financial crimes control and management commissions need to consider preparing
strategic intelligence from the results towards addressing vote-buying and selling issues
effectively before and during the poll.
14
Electorate were asked to choose between very great extent and no extent range (4 represents highest while
1 indicates lowest). Numbers represent average score of 309 electorate’s views per threat
26
Osun 2022 Governorship Election Campaign Monitoring Report Issue 10, July 15, 2022
Exhibit 22: Key threats to credible poll according to the electorate by senatorial district
15
Source: Osun 2022 Election Survey, Positive Agenda Nigeria, 2022
Exhibit 23: Categories of people likely to offer money to electorate by senatorial districts
16
Source: Osun 2022 Election Survey, Positive Agenda Nigeria, 2022
15
Intimidation of voters by political thugs (n=308), vote buying and selling (n=303), Manipulation of votes
through secret voting system by the political elite and electoral body (n=334), Do or die syndrome of the
political parties to capture political power by all means (n=307)
16
Osun Central (n=349), Osun West (n=630)
27
Osun 2022 Governorship Election Campaign Monitoring Report Issue 10, July 15, 2022
Conclusion and Our Verdict
Out of all the political parties contesting tomorrow’s governorship election in the state,
only two of them, the APC and the PDP, recorded the highest campaign messages across
the five communication media types (Facebook, Twitter, Newspapers, Radio jingles and
Campaign speeches) we monitored from day one to the 69th day of the monitoring
exercise. Forty-two-point eighty percent (42.80%) went to the APC while the PDP took
43.10%. Accord, Labour Party and SDP shared the remaining percentage. One of the main
implications of our findings this week is that the political parties, especially the two major
parties, greatly believed in defending their candidates than the rate they defended them
and their policies in weeks eight and nine. As they defended, they equally promised
potential electorates what they would do better should they are voted for tomorrow. This
shows that the political parties understand that defenses and acclaims are two strong
strategies that can help them persuade voters before tomorrow’s election the closer the
election, the more the strategies are deployed. Still, verbal attacks did not stop, and those
attacks were more prominent on Facebook and Twitter than on the other three media
types monitored. Like the previous two weeks, the parties were also confident of emerging
victorious in tomorrow’s election, though they kept urging voters to vote for them. Aside
from the canvassing, the parties, their supporters and the media team kept selling the
competencies of their candidates to the potential electorate.
This week’s report also points our direction to the issue of security in the state.
Throughout the campaign week, security became the dominant policy-engaged
discussion. However, this changed to salary and economy when we examined the issues
that interested Osun digital natives this week. In addition, over 80% of the 342 electorate
we spoke with identified economy and security as the areas where the political actors
discussed the challenges and needs of the people most. According to the majority
(84.30%) of the electorate, they will vote for the candidates and political parties that
addressed issues and people’s needs. That does not mean some electorate will not engage
in vote selling. According to the electorate, vote buying and selling, manipulations of
results, intimidation of voters by political thugs as well as do-or-die politics are potential
threats to the election if appropriate actions are not taken to curtail their emergence.
28
Osun 2022 Governorship Election Campaign Monitoring Report Issue 10, July 15, 2022
Another interesting finding this week is that Twitter was heavily used by both the APC
and the PDP to market their candidates and de-market each other’s opponents. However,
four main threats to tomorrow’s election were dominant. One, the opposition accused the
ruling party of planning to collude with the electoral umpire to rig tomorrow’s election
(64.70% of the analysed messages). Two, the ruling party was also accused of planning to
rig the election through the influence of pollical thugs (64% of the analysed messages).
Three, they were also accused of planning to rig through security agencies (63.63% of the
analysed messages). Lastly, the two parties accused each other of planning to buy votes
(46.15% of the analysed messages). It is important to state that Twitter users who engaged
in these conversations are divided into three those residing in the state and will vote
tomorrow; those residing outside the state and will not vote tomorrow; paid influencers
who are not even from Osun State.
In terms of policy engagement, the opposition parties did little compared to the informed
policy engagement the ruling party dished out to potential voters.
Therefore, our recommendations for week nine also suffice for this week’s. That is, we
strongly recommend that the security agencies intensify their efforts in ensuring that
perpetrators of violence do not go scot-free, especially now that physical political attacks
have become constant in the state. We also advise political actors in the state to place
national peace and objective over their personal political goals and interests. Also,
security agencies, corrupt practices and financial crimes control and management
commissions should consider preparing strategic intelligence from research-based
results like this towards addressing vote-buying and selling effectively before and during
the poll. Finally, we admonish voters not to sell the future of their children for meagre
financial and material inducements; they should cast their votes for the candidate they
believe will bring true and people-oriented development to the state.
29
Osun 2022 Governorship Election Campaign Monitoring Report Issue 10, July 15, 2022
About Positive Agenda Nigeria
Positive Agenda Nigeria is a non-governmental organisation led by a group of academics
and independent researchers dedicated to adopting evidence-based approaches to
preserve a favourable climate for Nigeria's socioeconomic and political activities.
Research Team
Rasheed Ademola Adebiyi, PhD -Team Lead
Rasheed Ademola ADEBIYI holds a PhD from the University of Ibadan, Nigeria. He is a
member of the Advertising Practitioners Council of Nigeria (APCON); Nigerian Institute
of Public Relations (NIPR); International Association of Media & Communication
Research (IAMCR); and African Council for Communication Education (ACCE). He
teaches PR & Advertising; News Writing and Reporting as well as Development
Communication at the Department of Mass Communication, Fountain University,
Osogbo, Nigeria. He is a 2022 Fellow of the Solutions Journalism Africa Fellowship
supported by the Solutions Journalism Network, New York and implemented by the
Nigeria Health Watch, Abuja. He is a Co-Founder/Editor-in Chief of Abitocitta, a
platform for solution-focused stories in Nigeria and Africa. He has published a number of
articles in both national and international journals in his areas of research interest.
Mutiu Iyanda Lasisi, BA, mMBA -Senior Research Analyst
Mutiu Iyanda Lasisi is a Research and Communications professional with a special bias
for combining academic and industrial approaches for issues and needs exploration
towards personal and societal growth. His research and industry interests include
entrepreneurship development, media, communication, public governance, big data
analytics, computational and data journalism. He has published articles on media,
journalism and communication in reputable national and international journals. He
currently works with Infoprations Limited, a data-driven management consulting
company, Lagos, Nigeria.
Mojeed Adekunle Animashaun -Msc -Senior Research Analyst
Mojeed Adekunle Animashaun received first and second degrees in Political Science from
Nigeria’s premier university, the University of Ibadan, Nigeria. He is a doctoral student
at Osun State University, Osogbo, Nigeria. He currently teaches in the Department of
Political Science and Public Administration, Fountain University, Osogbo, Nigeria where
he has served at various times as Head of Department, Sub-Dean of the Faculty of
30
Osun 2022 Governorship Election Campaign Monitoring Report Issue 10, July 15, 2022
Management and Social Sciences as well as Acting Chairman of University Consultancy
Unit. He has previously taught at Nasarawa State University, Keffi and Osun State
University, Osogbo. His areas of research interest include comparative democratization,
governance, state-civil society relations and policy analysis. He has published in reputable
local and international journals with his two latest research efforts published in an edited
volume by Springer Nature; and in the Contemporary Journal of African Studies of the
Institute of African Studies, University of Ghana, Legon.
Obasanjo Joseph Oyedele, PhD -Senior Research Analyst
Dr. Obasanjo Joseph Oyedele is a Lecturer at the Department of Mass Communication,
Federal University Oye-Ekiti, Ekiti State. He holds a PhD in climate change
communication of the Department of Communication and Language Arts, University of
Ibadan, where he also bagged his M.A. and B.A. His ongoing and concluded postdoctoral
fellowships with the Premium Times Centre for Investigative Journalism and The Civic
Media Lab respectively focus on Nigeria's policies and pledges on climate change
sustainability and efforts at curbing fake news, misinformation, and disinformation in the
Nigerian media space respectively. He has publications on climate change, health, risk,
and environmental communication and media studies in reputable national and
international journals. He has also attended seminars, conferences, and summer schools
both at home and abroad.
Kamoru Aremu Salaudeen, PhD -Senior Research Analyst
He is a lecturer/researcher in the department of Mass Communication, Fountain
University, Osogbo, is a communication strategist, radio presenter, performing artist,
voice-over artist and script writer. His media and communication experience connects
both the industry and the academia spanning over two decades now. He has PhD in
Strategic Communication, M.A in Applied Communication and B.A in Communication &
Language Arts from University of Ibadan, as well as M. Sc. in Mass Communication (PR
& Advertising option) from Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago-Iwoye, Ogun State. His
broad area of specilisation and research covers Public Relations and Advertising with
particular focus on Strategic Communication, communication intervention, health
communication and development communication. He has published research articles in
revered local, national and international journals. Kamoru, a communication, life skill
and leadership coach, is a member of International Association of Media and
31
Osun 2022 Governorship Election Campaign Monitoring Report Issue 10, July 15, 2022
Communication Research (IAMCR), African Council for Communication Education
(ACCE), Nigerian Chapter, Association of Media and Communication Researchers of
Nigeria (AMCRON), Nigerian Institute of Public Relations (NIPR), Advertising
Practitioners Council of Nigeria (APCON) and Society for InterDisciplinary Research
(SIR).
Ridwan Abiola Kolawole, BA, MA, -Senior Research Analyst
Ridwan Abiola Kolawole teaches journalism and communication in the Department of
Mass Communication, Fountain University, Osogbo, Nigeria. Kolawole holds M.A and B.
A. in Communication and Language Arts from University of Ibadan, Nigeria. He also has
National Diploma in Mass Communication, from The Polytechnic, Ibadan, Nigeria. His
research interest focuses on Applied Communication with particular interests in Media
Studies, Journalism, and Development Communication. He is a 2020-2021 Doctoral
Dissertation Research Fellow of the Next Generation Social Sciences in Africa of the Social
Science Research Council (SSRC), New York. He has served as research assistant for
Community-Based Crime Prevention and Control of the Evidence and Lessons from Latin
America [and Africa] (ELLA) funded by the UKAID and Practical Action. He is a
beneficiary of the University of Edinburgh-funded Catalyst Regional Early Career
Workshop for early career scholars from West Africa. He is a research team member
(Nigeria) on the project, Young Women and Men’s Aspirations and Resilience: Prospects
for Livelihoods, Employment and Accountability before, during and beyond COVID-19
project. This is a MasterCard Foundation-funded project in seven African countries
including Nigeria aimed at projecting African youth’s voices to the critical stakeholders in
the area of empowerment/employment.
Umar Olansile Ajetunmobi, BA -Research Associate
Umar Ajetunmobi Olansile is an Applied Communication Researcher who has a special
interest in development, health, media and digital communication-related issues. He is a
graduate of University of Ibadan where he studied Communication and Language Arts.
He is currently a postgraduate student of the same department, and co-winner of the 2021
UNESCO Silk Roads Youth Research Grant. He is equally affiliated with Infoprations
Limited, a data-driven management consulting company based in Lagos, Nigeria. Umar
has co-authored peer reviewed and published research papers on digital media,
journalism (traditional and digital) and COVID-19 pandemic.
32
Osun 2022 Governorship Election Campaign Monitoring Report Issue 10, July 15, 2022
Abdulgafar Adebayo, Bsc -Communications and Research Assistant
Abdulgafar Adebayo Adekunle holds a BSc in Mass Communication from the Department
of Mass Communication, Fountain University, Osogbo where he concluded his
undergraduate programme in 2022. He is currently interning at Abitocitta, and works as
a Research Assistant for Solutions Journalism Advocacy organised by Nigeria Health
Watch in Osun State. He is skilled in graphics design, camera handling and journalistic
writing.
For enquiries
Email: pci1nigeria@gmail.com
33
ResearchGate has not been able to resolve any citations for this publication.
Research Analyst Ridwan Abiola Kolawole teaches journalism and communication in the Department of Mass Communication
  • Ridwan Abiola Kolawole
  • M A Ba
  • Senior
Ridwan Abiola Kolawole, BA, MA, -Senior Research Analyst Ridwan Abiola Kolawole teaches journalism and communication in the Department of Mass Communication, Fountain University, Osogbo, Nigeria. Kolawole holds M.A and B.
BA -Research Associate Umar Ajetunmobi Olansile is an Applied Communication Researcher who has a special interest in development, health, media and digital communication-related issues. He is a graduate of University of Ibadan where he studied Communication and Language Arts
  • Ajetunmobi Umar Olansile
Umar Olansile Ajetunmobi, BA -Research Associate Umar Ajetunmobi Olansile is an Applied Communication Researcher who has a special interest in development, health, media and digital communication-related issues. He is a graduate of University of Ibadan where he studied Communication and Language Arts.