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Measuring Community Disaster Resilience Over Time

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Abstract

Natural disaster impacts can be mitigated by building community resilience and this recognition has elevated the importance of demonstrating the return on resilience investment. Subsequently, there is a demand for resilience measurement tools. The Baseline Resilience Indicator for Communities (BRIC), is an index based on variables representing resilience attributes identified in the literature. BRIC is representative of indices designed for national assessments, applies to multiple natural disasters at the county level in the US, and its application in national assessments has been demonstrated. This analysis tests the BRIC index in two longitudinal case studies by examining the variables that constitute the index. Specific variables used in the BRIC index are explored through the examination of the suitability of each variable for use in longitudinal studies at the county level and the variable’s skill in capturing known events and activities expected to have an impact on resilience. Detailed examination of each variable in the context of the community profile provides insights to improve formulations of variables. New variables are proposed to better capture community characteristics and actions that enhance resilience.

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Mitigation ameliorates the impact of natural hazards on communities by reducing loss of life and injury, property and environmental damage, and social and economic disruption. The potential to reduce these losses brings many benefits, but every mitigation activity has a cost that must be considered in our world of limited resources. In principle benefit-cost analysis (BCA) can be used to assess a mitigation activity’s expected net benefits (discounted future benefits less discounted costs), but in practice this often proves difficult. This paper reports on a study that refined BCA methodologies and applied them to a national statistical sample of FEMA mitigation activities over a ten-year period for earthquake, flood, and wind hazards. The results indicate that the overall benefit-cost ratio for FEMA mitigation grants is about 4 to 1, though the ratio varies according to hazard and mitigation type.
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Objective: Data from a sample of 391 respondents who responded to ABC News Hurricane Katrina Anniversary Poll, August 2006, are used to test the relationship between predictor variables (social vulnerability index, insurance and severity of damage in living area) and the dependent variable (perceived disaster impact). Methods: Multiple regression is used to test the theoretical relationships. The dependent variable disaster impact is regressed on seven predictor variables simultaneously. Results: Social vulnerability has a statistically significant, positive effect on perceived disaster impact. Fully insured variable has a statistically significant, negative effect on disaster impact. Finally, severely damaged living area has a statistically significant, positive effect on disaster impact. Conclusion: The social vulnerability theory holds true in the context of Hurricane Katrina. Those who possess mixed characteristics of social vulnerability tend to be more affected by the impact of a disaster. Insurance tends to help lessen the disaster impact when individuals have the policies that cover all of their property. Finally, those who live in areas that are severely damaged from a disaster tend to experience more impact than those whose living areas are less damaged or not damaged.
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This article contributes to the disaster literature by measuring and connecting two concepts that are highly related but whose relationship is rarely empirically evaluated: social vulnerability and community resilience. To do so, we measure community resilience and social vulnerability in counties across the United States and find a correlation between high levels of vulnerability and low levels of resilience, indicating that the most vulnerable counties also tend to be the least resilient. We also find regional differences in the distribution of community resilience and social vulnerability, with the West being particularly vulnerable while the Southeast is prone to low levels of resilience. By looking at both social vulnerability and community resilience, we are able to map communities’ social risks for harm from threats as well as their capacities for recovering and adapting in the aftermath of hazards. This provides a more complete portrait of the communities that might need the most assistance in emergency planning and response, as well as whether such interventions will need to be tailored toward reducing damage or finding the path to recovery.
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How communities respond to and recover from damaging hazard events could be contextualized in terms of their disaster resilience. Although numerous efforts have sought to explain the determinants of disaster resilience, the ability to measure the concept is increasingly being seen as a key step toward disaster risk reduction. The development of standards that are meaningful for measuring resilience remains a challenge, however. This is partially because there are few explicit sets of procedures within the literature that outline how to measure and compare communities in terms of their resilience. The primary purpose of this article is to advance the understanding of the multidimensional nature of disaster resilience and to provide an externally validated set of metrics for measuring resilience at subcounty levels of geography. A set of metrics covering social, economic, institutional, infrastructural, community-based, and environmental dimensions of resilience was identified, and the validity of the metrics is addressed via real-world application using Hurricane Katrina and the recovery of the Mississippi Gulf Coast in the United States as a case study.
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Indicators of natural disaster resilience are factors that impact the ability to cope with and adapt to a natural disaster and climate change events. They can either contribute to or detract from resilience. Existing research has emphasized the importance of quantifying resilience in order to estimate baseline resilience and measure progress toward resilience enhancement. Previous attempts at quantification of resilience have not incorporated place-specific indicators or differential weighting of indicators for prioritization of resilience enhancement actions. Previous research efforts have also not incorporated spatial and temporal contexts when attempting to quantify resilience indicators. This research demonstrates the importance for quantifying resilience place-specific indicators, differential weighting of indicators, and the spatial and temporal contexts of indicators for resilience estimation and quantification through a case study of Sarasota County, Florida. This case study was conducted in four phases: preliminary interviews, plan review, focus group, and spatial analysis. Preliminary interviews were intended to contribute to development of research goals. The plan review process served to identify Sarasota County's planning priorities to determine possible indicators of resilience unique to Sarasota County as well as existing and planned county hazard mitigation strategies. The focus group was concerned with identifying resilience indicators through a workshop with officials from Sarasota County. The spatial analysis portion used findings from all three previous phases to demonstrate spatial patterns of resilience. This research demonstrates that although national resilience quantification metrics are useful, local scale resilience estimates appear more useful if community hazard mitigation and climate change adaptation is the primary goal.
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The focus of this article is planning for resiliency in the aftermath of a catastrophe. First, the authors offer their conception of planning for resiliency as a goal for recovering communities, and the benefits of planning in efforts to create more resilient places. Next, they discuss major issues associated with planning for postdisaster recovery, including barriers posed by federal and state governments to planning for resiliency, the promise and risks of compact urban form models for guiding rebuilding, and the failure to involve citizens in planning for disasters. Finally, they discuss lessons from prior research that address these issues and policy recommendations that foster predisaster recovery planning for resilient communities.
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Change is a constant force, in nature and in society. Research suggests that resilience pertains to the ability of a system to sustain itself through change via adaptation and occasional transformation. This article is based on the premises that communities can develop resilience by actively building and engaging the capacity to thrive in an environment characterized by change, and that community resilience is an important indicator of social sustainability. Community resilience, as defined herein, is the existence, development, and engagement of community resources by community members to thrive in an environment characterized by change, uncertainty, unpredictability, and surprise. The U.S. Roundtable on Sustainable Forests commissioned a research project to develop a theoretically and empirically based definition of community resilience as well as an associated measurement instrument. In this article, the research is presented, the emergent definition and dimensions of community resilience are posited, and the Community Resilience Self Assessment is introduced.
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Community resilience is a term that describes the community's ability to function amidst crises or disruptions. Community resilience is perceived as a fundamental element in emergency preparedness and as a mean of ensuring social stability in the face of crises, including disasters. However, there is a paucity of empiric evidence for this conjecture. This paper demonstrates the use of the Conjoint Community Resilience Assessment Measurement (CCRAM) for estimating the ability of a community to be resilient in the face of disaster. Six factors of community resilience were identified based on a study conducted in nine small to medium size towns (N = 886): Leadership, collective efficacy, preparedness, place attachment, social trust and social relationship. Multiple logistic regressions yielded the CCRAM protective factors for perceived community resilience. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis confirmed the quality of the CCRAM as a diagnostic tool for perceived community resilience. The CCRAM tool is presented as a potential provider of information for authorities and decision makers as an aid for foreseeing and planning towards the challenges present during emergency times.
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There is considerable research interest on the meaning and measurement of resilience from a variety of research perspectives including those from the hazards/disasters and global change communities. The identification of standards and metrics for measuring disaster resilience is one of the challenges faced by local, state, and federal agencies, especially in the United States. This paper provides a new framework, the disaster resilience of place (DROP) model, designed to improve comparative assessments of disaster resilience at the local or community level. A candidate set of variables for implementing the model are also presented as a first step towards its implementation.
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How does the government or a business plan for an unimaginable disaster-a meltdown at a nuclear power plant, a gigantic oil spill, or a nuclear attack? Lee Clarke examines actual attempts to "prepare" for these catastrophes and finds that the policies adopted by corporations and government agencies are fundamentally rhetorical: the plans have no chance to succeed, yet they serve both the organizations and the public as symbols of control, order, and stability. These "fantasy documents" attempt to inspire confidence in organizations, but for Clarke they are disturbing persuasions, soothing our perception that we ultimately cannot control our own technological advances. For example, Clarke studies corporations' plans for cleaning up oil spills in Prince William Sound prior to the Exxon Valdez debacle, and he finds that the accepted strategies were not just unrealistic but completely untenable. Although different organizations were required to have a cleanup plan for huge spills in the sound, a really massive spill was unprecedented, and the accepted policy was little more than a patchwork of guesses based on (mostly unsuccessful) cleanups after smaller accidents. While we are increasingly skeptical of big organizations, we still have no choice but to depend on them for protection from large-scale disasters. We expect their specialists to tell the truth, and yet, as Clarke points out, reassuring rhetoric (under the guise of expert prediction) may have no basis in fact or truth because no such basis is attainable. In uncovering the dangers of planning when implementation is a fantasy, Clarke concludes that society would be safer, smarter, and fairer if organizations could admit their limitations. "An incursion into new territory written with insight and flair, Clarke's book achieves a revolution in understanding plans as an organizational activity-how they come about, why they go awry, and the often-disastrous disconnect between plans and an organization's ability to carry them out. A book that will fascinate general readers, administrators, organization theorists, and disaster buffs, Mission Improbable stands as a valuable companion volume to Pressman and Wildavsky's Implementation."—Diane Vaughan, author of The Challenger Launch Decision
The City Resilience Index
  • S Bhoite
  • K Birtill
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  • S Stratton-Short
Bhoite, S., K. Birtill, S. Gillespie, B. E. Morera, J. da Silva, and S. Stratton-Short. 2014. The City Resilience Index, 1-31. New York, NY: The Rockefeller Foundation. https://www.urbanresponse.org/system/files/content/resource/files/main/city-resilience-framework-arupapril-2014.pdf.
Community Resilience Planning Guide for Buildings and Infrastructure Systems
  • S Cauffman
Cauffman, S. 2015. "Community Resilience Planning Guide for Buildings and Infrastructure Systems." Electroindustry 20 (7): 8.
City Resilience Framework
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da Silva, J., and M. Moench. 2014. City Resilience Framework, 1-21. New York, NY: The Rockefeller Foundation. http://www.seachangecop.org/files/documents/URF_Booklet_Final_for_ Bellagio.pdf%5Cn.http://www.rockefellerfoundation.org/uploads/files/0bb537c0-d872-467f-9470-b20f57c32488.pdf%5Cn.http://resilient-cities.iclei.org/fileadmin/sites/ resilient-cities/files/Image.
Community Resilience Indicator Analysis, County-Level Analysis of Commonly Used Indicators from Peer-Reviewed Research
  • L Edgeman
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Edgeman, L., C. Freeman, C. Burdi, J. Hutchison, K. Marsh, and K. Pfeiffer. 2019. Community Resilience Indicator Analysis, County-Level Analysis of Commonly Used Indicators from Peer-Reviewed Research, 2020 Update. https://www.fema.gov/sites/default/files/2020-11/ fema_community-resilience-indicator-analysis.pdf.
Pursuing Community Resilience Over Time
  • S Mcconkey
McConkey, S. 2018. Pursuing Community Resilience Over Time. Illinois State Water Survey Contract Report 2018-01. Champaign. http://hdl.handle.net/2142/99948.
NIST Special Publication 1190, II
CRS Report for Congress Federal Emergency Management: A Brief Introduction
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Lindsay, B. R. 2012. CRS Report for Congress Federal Emergency Management: A Brief Introduction. Washington D.C.: Congressional Research Service.