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2nd International Conference, Intermodal Transports: Innovations in Planning, Management, Business
Development & Decision Making. Alexandroupolis, Greece, 12-15 October 2021.
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A review of the transport sector: Notes from the post-
COVID-19 era
Dimos CHATZINIKOLAOU
Department of Economics, Democritus University of Thrace
dimchatz@econ.duth.gr
Charis VLADOS
Department of Economics, Democritus University of Thrace
cvlados@econ.duth.gr
Abstract
The transport industry is one of the fundamental development pillars of all socioeconomic
systems nowadays. This article aims to examine whether the current pandemic crisis of
COVID-19—which significantly repositions all socioeconomic dimensions—accelerates
developments, especially in the transport sector. This introduction investigates critical
perspectives from the history of transport, ending up with the trends that (seemingly) existed
before the current crisis. The primary finding corresponds to the acceleration caused by
COVID-19, especially in trends related to increased digitalization and the need for investment
in new infrastructure across the world. Also, the de-carbonization and the rise of the “prosumer”
(the individual who consumes and produces value simultaneously) are accelerating forces in
the transport industry.
Keywords: transport sector, COVID-19 crisis, history of transport, investment infrastructure,
digitalization, de-carbonization, prosumer
1. Introduction
The transport industry is one of the fundamental development pillars of today’s global
socioeconomic system. This study aims to present related trends in the transport system, in
conjunction with developments occurring after the outbreak of the current pandemic crisis of
COVID-19. Various studies in the literature examine the evolution of the transport sector
(Bradford, 2018; Zeller, 2014). However, by researching tendencies accelerated by COVID-19
and exploring their relation to the transport industry and the fourth industrial revolution
valuable aspects of tomorrow’s global socioeconomic development can be illuminated.
This conceptual article presents the transport sector from a historical perspective by
elliptically exploring the related literature (Jaakkola, 2020; Yadav, 2010). It aims to end up with
a repositioned theoretical framework capable of highlighting trends and future research
directions in transport for the post-COVID-19 era. Section two reviews critical elements from
this sector’s historical formation. Section three investigates whether COVID-19 accelerates the
existing tendencies. Section four concludes and discusses the prospects for further research.
2nd International Conference, Intermodal Transports: Innovations in Planning, Management, Business
Development & Decision Making. Alexandroupolis, Greece, 12-15 October 2021.
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2. The transport industry from a historical perspective and present trends
The history of transport is an interdisciplinary scientific field, investigating the genesis and
evolution of the sector and the main modes of public transport in various national or local
settings (Gorbunov et al., 2019). The long-term evolution of the transport sector involves
successive replacements in terms of technology, where new transport modes (in terms of better
quality, efficiency, and speed) substitute the traditional forms (Grubler & Nakicenovic, 1991).
According to the neo-Schumpeterian perspective of the techno-economic paradigm, the
entire capitalist system
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follows a cyclical behavior, where long “Kondratiev waves” lead to
generalized depressions every fifty to sixty years (Chatzinikolaou & Vlados, 2019b;
Kondratieff, 1935; Perez, 1983). The diffusion of sufficient institutional and social innovations
in the new wave drives rapid growth and investment infrastructure, paving the way for the
assimilation of the techno-economic paradigm (Chatzinikolaou & Vlados, 2019a). In this
context, the global system traverses nowadays the fifth Kondratiev wave, based on information
technology (from 1990 and beyond). This last wave succeeded the first (1800—steam engine
and cotton), the second (1850—railway and steel), the third (1900—electrical engineering and
chemistry), and the fourth (1950—petrochemicals and automobiles). Others suggest that
today’s world economy enters with increased velocity in the sixth wave, induced by
transformations occurring in additive, nano, cognitive, information, and medical technologies
(Grinin & Korotayev, 2020). Also, this sixth Kondratiev wave shares elements with the fourth
industrial revolution theory, whose primary conceptual platform is the ongoing spread of
“cyberphysical” systems—the outcome of the blurring boundaries between the physical and
digital world in the production of products and services (Schwab, 2016). In generic terms, the
twenty-first century features the informational interconnection between economies and the
dynamics of globalization, leading the global economy towards increased sensitivity in
turbulence (Vlados et al., 2018).
Furthermore, environmental history and the energy system’s structuration play a critical role
in transport’s history since they are all complementary and mutually enriching fields (Bradford,
2018; Zeller, 2014). Nowadays, climate change, caused by energy-intensive activities, induces
a paradigmatic change in transport, progressively cultivating a world without oil (Dimitriou,
2016; Munn, 2008). This revolution in transport creates conditions for innovation in this
industry that could increase energy efficiency and reduce emissions—however, such a
significant change necessitates large scale and establishment of new standards (Carlton et al.,
2017; Hoppe & Winter, 2015). Moreover, in today’s era of globalization’s crisis, reinforcing
local development seems capable of countering the consequences of climate change since it
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The pre-capitalist evolution of the transport system is not in the scope of this study0.
2nd International Conference, Intermodal Transports: Innovations in Planning, Management, Business
Development & Decision Making. Alexandroupolis, Greece, 12-15 October 2021.
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could mitigate transport-intensive imports—especially in goods such as food (Chrzanowski,
2019).
In an approach of significant clarity and usefulness, Vinichenko (2021) comprehensively
addresses the problem of discovering critical trends in today’s transport system. First, in cargo
transportation (containerization), an increase in international trade will necessarily increase the
demand for this mode since it is the most inexpensive and convenient. However, this
opportunity is not equal for all carriers, who must invest in their competitive advantages and
protect their business models from adjacent road network inefficiencies and low-performance
indicators. Second, the use of artificial intelligence in freight transport will spread rapidly,
applying methods such as “unmanned cars,” drones for “last mile” delivery, and “smart”
infrastructure capable of reading urban objects and embedding them in the present
infrastructure. Third, the greening of freight transport and de-carbonization will also cause
significant transformations in the cargo flows and the composition of inventory flows. The use
of biofuels, hydrogen energy, hydroelectric power, and the “battery-electric transmission” in
the automobile industry will accelerate this transition. With exceptional clarity, Vinichenko
(2021) also documents the tendencies occurring in passenger transport and tourism. First, the
author notices that transports will continue to elevate as individualized tourist products—the
customer’s choice will rise as the primary success factor due to the gradual erasing of physical
boundaries and the increased informatization, which allows individual tourist planning and
optimal routes. Second, high-speed highways will further expand as passenger transport
corridors, reassuring enhanced safety and access. Third, the electrification of private cars will
significantly alter all transport infrastructure since the travelers will plot their leisure routes
according to the charging stations’ locations.
Overall, the trends forecasted about the global socio-economic system in the related
scholarly literature seem to broadly correspond to the generalized socioeconomic depression
that induces investment infrastructure and institutional innovations, together with reinforced
digitalization and the diffusion of cyberphysical systems. Concerning the specific tendencies
emerging in the transport industry, the literature increasingly suggests the electrification of
automobiles (ideologically, the need for climate change protection and de-carbonization
cultivates this change) and the expansion of artificial intelligence in demand-side transport
solutions. The following section explores significant developments caused by the current
pandemic, aiming to examine whether this crisis accelerates these trends.
3. COVID-19 as an accelerator of developments in the transport sector
The previous section highlighted the critical trends that (as it seems) accelerate today’s
transition in the post-COVID-19 world, both in the global socioeconomic system and the
2nd International Conference, Intermodal Transports: Innovations in Planning, Management, Business
Development & Decision Making. Alexandroupolis, Greece, 12-15 October 2021.
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transport sector. According to the examined literature, the pillars concerning the global
evolutionary transformation are the generalized socioeconomic depression, the investment in
infrastructure, and the digital transformation. The two spheres specifically related to the
transport industry are the transition to electric cars and de-carbonization and the enhancement
of demand-side transport solutions.
Since the end of 2019, when some patients in Wuhan, China, showed atypical pneumonia
symptoms, a profound and multilayered crisis started (both health crisis and socioeconomic
crisis). Characteristically, the United Nations (2020) notice that the current pandemic crisis will
probably lead to new famines and cause a backslide in poverty alleviation worldwide. This
section investigates whether this crisis accelerates these five trends (see the earlier section) on
the global socioeconomic system and the transport sector identified by the literature:
A. Generalized socioeconomic depression: According to the International Monetary Fund
(IMF, 2021), the world output recorded an overall fall of 3.3 percent, 4.7 percent in the
advanced economies, and 2.2 percent in the emerging economies, with the world volume
trade in goods and services declining by 8.5 percent in 2020. In a similar vein, the World
Trade Organization suggests that this crisis will surpass in magnitude the financial crisis
of 2008-2009 (Azevêdo, 2020). In the transport industry, a typical example of the
recession is the global air traffic contraction by 53.3 percent in March 2020, according
to the Committee for the Coordination of Statistical Activities (CCSA, 2020), and the
ship call reduction of 8.7 percent in the first 24 weeks of 2020 compared to 2019
(UNCTAD, 2021). In terms of social implications, various analysts argue that human
freedom and democracy are facing significant pressures since the pandemic started,
pointing to a new “crisis of authority” and increasing inequalities and social injustice
after the extended lockdowns across the world (European Parliamentary Research
Service, 2020).
B. Investment infrastructure inducement: According to the το United Nations Conference
on Trade and Development (UNCTAD, 2020), investment reduction due to the
pandemic has reached 30-40 percent worldwide. However, the research on the need for
increased investment in infrastructure is growing over the past months (International
Transport Forum, 2021b). According to the Global Infrastructure Hub (GIH, 2020),
investment infrastructure should be the fundamental direction for long-term
development in the G20 economies; this report bases its findings on the significantly
bigger fiscal multiplier when infrastructure investment covers a substantial share of total
public spending. Also, a considerable amount of research suggests the need for
reinforced investment infrastructure in the post-COVID-19 transition, capable of
favoring long-term balanced development across the planet (International Energy
Agency, 2020a; International Transport Forum, 2021a; Tandberg & Allen, 2020).
2nd International Conference, Intermodal Transports: Innovations in Planning, Management, Business
Development & Decision Making. Alexandroupolis, Greece, 12-15 October 2021.
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C. Digitalization: According to the International Labor Organization (ILO, 2020), only 18
percent of the labor force globally works today in an environment capable of offering
infrastructure for remote working. However, the increased digitalization that happened
since the pandemic is noteworthy. According to the Organization for Economic Co-
operation and Development (OECD, 2020), e-commerce sales increased by 30 percent
in April 2020 compared to 2019 in the EU (retail sales contracted in the same period by
17.9 percent). Also, the joint research by UNESCO, UNICEF, and the World Bank
(UNESCO et al., 2020) shows that most countries worldwide promoted at least one
policy to support distance learning. At the microeconomic level, a survey by the World
Economic Forum (2020) in various business leaders about the future of jobs concludes
that 80 percent of the respondents have stimulated in-business digitalization (among
other things, 80 percent declared remote work as the primary move and 50 percent
automation). Overall, a growing number of scholars examine today’s acceleration of
digital transformation due to the pandemic (Soto-Acosta, 2020; Winarsih et al., 2021).
D. De-carbonization and electrification of automobiles: According to the International
Energy Agency (2020b), energy demand, energy investment, and energy-related CO2
emissions will record a significant decline due to the pandemic (energy demand fell by
5 percent in the first quarter of 2020). The worldwide lockdown measures contributed
to this contraction; however, policymakers show an increasing will to keep up with these
trends since de-carbonization goals seem achievable now, such as the climate-neutral
EU by 2050 (Karlsson & Silander, 2020). Concerning electric mobility, the COVID-19
crisis led car registrations globally to a significant reduction, with the share of electric
vehicles upsurging. As noticed by a relevant report of the International Transport Forum
(2020), automobile production and sales recorded an 80 percent decline in China in
February 2020 compared to 2019 and 50 percent in March, respectively. Also, this fall
reached 85 percent during March in Italy, more than 70 percent in France, and 70 percent
in Spain (a similar trend appeared in other developed economies also). At the same time,
electric vehicles sales tripled in the United Kingdom in March 2020 compared to March
2019, while Italy recorded a 50 percent increase and France 20 percent.
E. Demand-side reinforcement in transport solutions: The COVID-19 crisis led to the
further development of “prosumerism” because it benefits organizations to stay resilient
in today’s turbulent socioeconomic environment. The “prosumer” is the individual who
consumes and produces value simultaneously (for consumption by others or self-
consumption), receiving explicit or implicit incentives from the organizations involved
in the exchange (Lang et al., 2020). Since the advent of the pandemic, the sharing
economy experienced significant growth, offering new service delivery solutions by
substituting traditional delivery methods (for instance, see the following: Business
2nd International Conference, Intermodal Transports: Innovations in Planning, Management, Business
Development & Decision Making. Alexandroupolis, Greece, 12-15 October 2021.
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Insider, 2020; O’Brien, 2020; Reuters, 2020; UBER, 2021). Also, according to the
International Transport Forum (2020b), drones’ use increased remarkably during the
pandemic because drones helped transport supplies with minimum human interaction
and protection from the virus. This fundamental transformation in transport demand
because of the crisis will lead to substantial changes in public transport and, as reported
by the International Transport Forum (2021c), different transport services will emerge
in the private and the public sphere. New applications that thoroughly examine
passenger volume and mobility patterns will arise in public transport, necessitated by
health concerns. According to Quiros (2020), various private companies already use big
data and digital technology to assist public transport organizations design agile and
responsive routes to meet changes in transport patterns.
Overall, all trends point to an explicit acceleration nowadays. The global socio-economic
system enters a paradigmatic transition (in the techno-economic sphere) without knowing when
the actual metamorphosis will occur. The fast-paced digitalization, the need for infrastructure
investment, and the structural change of the energy sector highlight the emerging context of the
post-COVID-19 era and fourth industrial revolution. The transport industry, which was hit hard
by the pandemic, is expected to continue changing towards the directions deriving primarily
from the de-carbonization diffusion and the reinforcement of the consumer (the “prosumer”).
4. Final remarks and prospects
This presentation ventured on an elliptical review of today’s transport sector. The goal was to
prove its transition to the post-COVID-19 era. The contribution of this introduction is the
reaffirmed acceleration taking place nowadays due to the pandemic in most fields of the global
socioeconomic system and, specifically, in the transport industry.
In the future, this research could examine more implications caused by this crisis to
globalization and enrich the debate. Related research is already underway, the findings of which
highlight the need to reposition the perception of global governance in the post-COVID world
(Vlados & Chatzinikolaou, 2021). Also, the historical analysis of other industries could help
strengthen this “acceleration argument” in a future setting. Finally, this repositioned theoretical
framework for the transport sector evolution could lead to action research in specific transport
companies (in specific spatial contexts) to find how they respond and adapt in light of these
findings.
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