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Abstract

Global climate change has generated several adverse effects, such as loss of sea ice, earlier breakup of ice on rivers and lakes, more intense heat waves and accelerated sea level rise. Of all the aforementioned effects, sea level rise is an unequivocal and forthcoming effect that has generated great interest.1 This physical phenomenon occurs at different spatial and temporal scales, being associated with distinct factors in each case. On a global scale, sea level changes are caused by variability in ocean-water volume due to thermal expansion, cryosphere melting, and the exchange between surface and groundwater on

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... Studies that have considered exposure to climate risks have been identified in different parts of the world, such as Lagos, Nigeria [15], and Guangzhou and Shenzhen, China [15][16][17], beyond coastal cities in Europe [18,19], Mexico [20], India [21], and the United States of America [22]. Some works highlight indices for coastal cities, such as the flood vulnerability index [23] and the climate and ocean risk vulnerability index [10], applied in a restricted way for small and medium cities in pilot projects. ...
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A.R.d.; Ferreira, M.L.; Victor, R.A.B.M.; Luca, E.F.d.; Rocha, G.C.d.; Carvalho, B.R.d.; Bustillos, J.O.W.V.; Sodré, M.G.; Oliveira, M.C.; et al. Beyond the Rising Tide: Towards Effective Climate Policy in Coastal Urban Centers. Land 2024, 13, 2071. Abstract: As urban areas expand rapidly, understanding the complex interactions between human migration, climate change impacts, and biodiversity loss is crucial for effective climate policy. However , comprehensive knowledge of the simultaneous interaction of these aspects is still scarce. Thus, this paper proposes the classification of 'Climate Emergency Coastal Cities', with the categorization of 43 cities into four levels according to their vulnerability (extreme, very high, high, and critical). Our study contributes to evidence-based climate policy and supports efficient resource allocation and interventions for the most vulnerable coastal cities. Highly anthropogenic megacities were ranked as the most sensitive to climate emergencies (Lagos, Nigeria; Jakarta, Indonesia; Los Angeles and Houston, USA; and Hong Kong and Shenzhen, China). It is noteworthy that in countries from both the Global North and South, the entry of new populations is a critical issue, and represents a threat to urban structures and biodiversity; however, in territories with fragile economies and numerous governance challenges, the required structure is still more challenging. The study concludes that integrated urban planning policies are crucial, considering various perspectives and coordinated actions. Policies should address marginalized urban groups and include migrants, and promote human well-being, ecosystem recovery, and climate mitigation, for effective adaptation.
... Studies that have considered exposure to climate risks have been identified in different parts of the world, such as Lagos, Nigeria [15], and Guangzhou and Shenzhen, China [15][16][17], beyond coastal cities in Europe [18,19], Mexico [20], India [21], and the United States of America [22]. Some works highlight indices for coastal cities, such as the flood vulnerability index [23] and the climate and ocean risk vulnerability index [10], applied in a restricted way for small and medium cities in pilot projects. ...
Article
Full-text available
As urban areas expand rapidly, understanding the complex interactions between human migration, climate change impacts, and biodiversity loss is crucial for effective climate policy. However, comprehensive knowledge of the simultaneous interaction of these aspects is still scarce. Thus, this paper proposes the classification of ‘Climate Emergency Coastal Cities’, with the categorization of 43 cities into four levels according to their vulnerability (extreme, very high, high, and critical). Our study contributes to evidence-based climate policy and supports efficient resource allocation and interventions for the most vulnerable coastal cities. Highly anthropogenic megacities were ranked as the most sensitive to climate emergencies (Lagos, Nigeria; Jakarta, Indonesia; Los Angeles and Houston, USA; and Hong Kong and Shenzhen, China). It is noteworthy that in countries from both the Global North and South, the entry of new populations is a critical issue, and represents a threat to urban structures and biodiversity; however, in territories with fragile economies and numerous governance challenges, the required structure is still more challenging. The study concludes that integrated urban planning policies are crucial, considering various perspectives and coordinated actions. Policies should address marginalized urban groups and include migrants, and promote human well-being, ecosystem recovery, and climate mitigation, for effective adaptation.
Article
The city of San Francisco de Campeche, located in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico; is vulnerable to coastal flooding due to its geographical location and low altitude terrain. Under these inherent site conditions, sea level rise associated with climate change represents a potential threat to people's property and goods in the coming decades. In this work, three scenarios of sea level rise in the coastal area of the city of San Francisco de Campeche were evaluated through numerical simulation and using wave and wind data obtained from the ERA5 reanalysis model as inputs: astronomical tide data and a high-resolution topobathymetric model. The scenarios evaluated correspond to the periods 2031-2050, 2046-2065, and 2081-2100 reported in the latest IPCC assessment report. Damage to people's property and goods was analyzed using the CENAPRED methodology based on the type of housing. The results allow identifying that the area of the old neighborhood of San Román, Colonia Miramar, Pedro Sainz de Baranda, Adolfo Ruiz Cortinez, Resurgimiento avenues, and the Campeche-Merida and Campeche-Champoton coastal highway, as well as the federal and state government offices they will be the most affected areas by sea level rise with economic damages exceeding 13,860,322Mexicanpesos(13,860,322 Mexican pesos (USD 805,832.67) under the 2031-2050 scenario, 14,706,754Mexicanpesos(14,706,754 Mexican pesos (USD 855,043.83) in the 2046-2065 scenario and 22,536,250Mexicanpesos(22,536,250 Mexican pesos (USD 1,310,247.09) in the 2081-2100 scenario; and the Los Petenes Biosphere Reserve as one of the ecological zones with the greatest extension of flooding; as well as downtown areas of the city that currently have residential, commercial, recreational, and port uses. Considering the three scenarios and effects on the population and housing, the 2081-2100 scenario is the one that generates the greatest flooding and with it a greater economic loss that exceeds 12 million dollars compared to the 2046-2050 scenario
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