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Global Warming: Velocity and Acceleration of Change in Cumulative CO2 Emissions

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This publication introduces two parameters related to cumulative CO2 emissions. The first parameter is "Velocity of Change in Cumulative CO2 Emissions", VCCO2. This parameter represents an average annual change in cumulative CO2 emissions and is expressed in ton of CO2 per year. The second parameter is "Acceleration of Change in Cumulative CO2 Emissions, ACCO2, and is expressed in ton of CO2 per year, per year (tCCO2/y 2). These two parameters are in addition to the parameter "Global Warming Rate", GWR [°C/y], and "Global Warming Acceleration", GWA [°C/y 2 ], described in the previous publication. The velocity of change in cumulative CO2 emissions, VCCO2, is +35.33 GtCCO2/y in the last 11 years, the acceleration of change in cumulative CO2 emissions, ACCO2, is +0.559 GtCCO2/y 2 in the last 31 years, and the minimum increase of ACCO2, is +1.2%/y.
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Global Warming:
Velocity and Acceleration of
Change in Cumulative CO2 Emissions
Joseph Nowarski, M.Sc., ME – Energy Conservation Expert
Version 2.1.1, 18 May 2022
DOI:10.5281/zenodo.6561071
Abstract
This publication introduces two parameters related to cumulative CO2 emissions.
The first parameter is “Velocity of Change in Cumulative CO2 Emissions”, VCCO2.
This parameter represents an average annual change in cumulative CO2
emissions and is expressed in ton of CO2 per year.
The second parameter is “Acceleration of Change in Cumulative CO2 Emissions,
ACCO2, and is expressed in ton of CO2 per year, per year (tCCO2/y2).
These two parameters are in addition to the parameter “Global Warming Rate”,
GWR [°C/y], and “Global Warming Acceleration”, GWA [°C/y2], described in the
previous publication.
The velocity of change in cumulative CO2 emissions, VCCO2, is +35.33 GtCCO2/y
in the last 11 years, the acceleration of change in cumulative CO2 emissions,
ACCO2, is +0.559 GtCCO2/y2 in the last 31 years, and the minimum increase of
ACCO2, is +1.2%/y.
Velocity and Acceleration of Change in Cumulative CO2 Emissions v2.1.1 - Joseph Nowarski
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Glossary
ACCO2 Acceleration of change in cumulative CO2 emissions, parameter “a”
in linear trendline:
dCO2(y) = (y-n) * a + b, average change in cumulative CO2 emissions
per year in the trendline period, tCO2/y2 (ton CO2 per year per year)
Ave average
CCO2 Global cumulative CO2 emissions according to publication [1] [2],
CO2 emissions produced from fossil fuels and cement production only
– land use change is not included
CO2 emissions of Carbon Dioxide, CO2
dCO2 Change in global cumulative CO2 emissions (CCO2), tCO2/y (ton
CO2 per year)
GtCO2 Giga-ton of CO2, 109 ton, 10^9 ton, 1,000,000,000 ton of CO2
GWA Global Warming Acceleration, yearly change in the global warming
rate, °C/y2 [3]
GWR Global Warming Rate – average change in global surface
temperature per year in the trendline period, °C/y [3]
mAve moving average
OWID Our World in Data – Internet site [1] [2]
Ref reference
tCO2 ton CO2
TL trendline
VCCO2 Velocity of change in cumulative CO2 emissions, tCO2/y
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Database of Global Cumulative Amount of CO2
Table 1 - Database of global cumulative amount of CO2
Source of Data OWID
Reference [1] [2]
Baseline year 1749
From year 1750
To year 2020
Period, years 271
CO2 from fossil fuels Yes
CO2 from cement production Yes
CO2 from other sources No
Other GHG No
Land use change No
Units ton CO2
Resolution 1 ton CO2/y
The database is from publication [1] [2], CO2 emissions produced from fossil fuels
and cement production only – land use change is not included.
Change in Cumulative Amount of CO2
Chart 1 - Annual change in the cumulative amount of CO2 [GtCO2/y]
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1750
1770
1790
1810
1830
1850
1870
1890
1910
1930
1950
1970
1990
2010
The change in 2019 was +36.70 GtCO2/y and in 2020 +34.81 GtCO2/y.
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Velocity of Change in Cumulative CO2 Emissions
The velocity of change is determined in this version as 11 years average of annual
changes in cumulative CO2 emissions.
Chart 2 - Velocity of change in the cumulative amount of CO2 [GtCO2/y]
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1755
1765
1775
1785
1795
1805
1815
1825
1835
1845
1855
1865
1875
1885
1895
1905
1915
1925
1935
1945
1955
1965
1975
1985
1995
2005
2015
Period Applied for Calculations of Trendlines
The period applied in this work for calculations of trendlines is 31 years. The starting
points of the trendlines are every 10 years from 1750.
Following is an example of a trendline in the period 1990-2020, trendline ID=TL25.
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Chart 3 - Annual change in cumulative CO2 emissions in period 1990-2020, TL25
[GtCO2/y]
y = 0.559047036232x + 20.463928521193
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
1990
2000
2010
2020
dCO2 Linear (dCO2)
The trendline formula for this period (TL25) is:
y = 0.559047036232x + 20.463928521193
a = 0.559047036232
b = 20.463928521193
The average acceleration of the change in cumulative CO2 emissions in the
period 1990-2020 is 0.559 GtCO2/y2 (=a), which is the slope of the linear trendline in
this period (1990-2020).
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Table 2 - Acceleration of change in cumulative CO2 emissions
Trendline period Trendline
Acceleration Change
Center of change Δ/y
from to ACCO2
CenterTL a
year year year GtCO2/y2 %/y
1750 1780 1765 0.0002
1760 1790 1775 0.0003 4.1%
1770 1800 1785 0.0005 4.6%
1780 1810 1795 0.0008 7.1%
1790 1820 1805 0.0011 3.7%
1800 1830 1815 0.0014 3.5%
1810 1840 1825 0.0026 8.1%
1820 1850 1835 0.0046 7.7%
1830 1860 1845 0.0079 7.2%
1840 1870 1855 0.0138 7.5%
1850 1880 1865 0.0207 4.9%
1860 1890 1875 0.0304 4.7%
1870 1900 1885 0.0431 4.2%
1880 1910 1895 0.0715 6.6%
1890 1920 1905 0.0840 1.8%
1900 1930 1915 0.0636 -2.4%
1910 1940 1925 0.0400 -3.7%
1920 1950 1935 0.0711 7.8%
1930 1960 1945 0.1790 15.2%
1940 1970 1955 0.3220 8.0%
1950 1980 1965 0.4917 5.3%
1960 1990 1975 0.4523 -0.8%
1970 2000 1985 0.3165 -3.0%
1980 2010 1995 0.4483 4.2%
1990 2020 2005 0.5590 2.5%
Ave 4.5%
since 1900 3.3%
last 3 1.2%
Chart 4 - Acceleration of change in cumulative CO2 emissions a=ACCO2
[GtCO2/y2]
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
1765
1775
1785
1795
1805
1815
1825
1835
1845
1855
1865
1875
1885
1895
1905
1915
1925
1935
1945
1955
1965
1975
1985
1995
2005
Axis x is the center of the trendline period (2005 is the center of the 1990-2020 trendline period)
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Current Situation
Table 3 - Most recent data (May 2020) regarding cumulative CO2 emissions
Symbol Unit Year Value
Cumulative CO2 emissions CCO2(2020) GtCO2 2020 1,696.52
Previous Year CCO2(2019) GtCO2 2019 1,661.72
Change to previous year Δ/y GtCO2/y 2020 34.81
Last 11 years velocity of change VCCO2 GtCO2/y 2015 35.33
Last 31 years acceleration of change ACCO2 GtCO2/y2 2005 0.5590
The lowest increase in acceleration ΔACCO2/y %/y 1995 1.2%
Changes in This Version
Change of formula for velocity of change in cumulative CO2
emissions, VCCO2
Change of formula for acceleration of change in cumulative CO2
emissions, ACCO2
Velocity and Acceleration of Change in Cumulative CO2 Emissions v2.1.1 - Joseph Nowarski
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References
1. Hannah Ritchie, Max Roser, Edouard Mathieu, Bobbie Macdonald and
Pablo Rosado - Data on CO and Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Our World
in Data
https://github.com/owid/co2-data#data-on-co2-and-greenhouse-gas-
emissions-by-our-world-in-data
2. Our World in Data, Cumulative CO emissions, 2020
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-co-emissions
3. Global Warming Acceleration - Joseph Nowarski, DOI:
10.5281/zenodo.6393436
* * *
ResearchGate has not been able to resolve any citations for this publication.
Bobbie Macdonald and Pablo Rosado -Data on CO₂ and Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Our World in Data
  • Hannah Ritchie
  • Max Roser
  • Edouard Mathieu
Hannah Ritchie, Max Roser, Edouard Mathieu, Bobbie Macdonald and Pablo Rosado -Data on CO₂ and Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Our World in Data https://github.com/owid/co2-data#data-on-co2-and-greenhouse-gasemissions-by-our-world-in-data