Beyond the COVID-19 crisis: A research note on post-pandemic scenarios for South Tyrol 2030+

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has hit societies all around the globe, with tremendous consequences. Beyond its impact on individual and public health, the ensuing crisis has also accentuated existing social and economic problems and, in many cases, exacerbated them. In this context, a central question arises: How can societies be better prepared for the future? This research note presents an example of strategic foresight as an instrument for better understanding systemic challenges, anticipating the emergent risks and opportunities and informing future-proof decision-making. More specifically, it reflects central insights of a regional foresight project that aimed at exploring development pathways of the Italian province South Tyrol for the next 10 years and beyond (2030+). Delineating four plausible, equivalent and consistent scenarios and their entailed challenges, risks and opportunities for South Tyrol, the project offers a future-oriented policy instrument for political, economic and civil actors and key stakeholders. Instead of a classic empirical outlet, the article is prepared as a research note that, beyond sketching the scenarios, shares the project experiences, lessons learned, challenges and success factors for other future regional foresight endeavors.

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Technological Forecasting & Social Change 180 (2022) 121749
Available online 16 May 2022
0040-1625/© 2022 Published by Elsevier Inc.
Beyond the COVID-19 crisis: A research note on post-pandemic scenarios
for South Tyrol 2030+
Daria Habicher
a
, Felix Windegger
a
, Heiko A. von der Gracht
b
,
*
, Harald Pechlaner
a
a
EURAC Research. Center for Advanced Studies, Drususallee/Viale Druso 1, Bozen/Bolzano I-39100, Italy
b
School of International Business and Entrepreneurship, Steinbeis University, Kalkofenstr 53, Herrenberg 71083, Germany
ARTICLE INFO
Keywords:
COVID-19
Coronavirus
Scenarios
Sustainable development goals
Sustainability
Transformation
Pandemic
Crisis
ABSTRACT
The COVID-19 pandemic has hit societies all around the globe, with tremendous consequences. Beyond its
impact on individual and public health, the ensuing crisis has also accentuated existing social and economic
problems and, in many cases, exacerbated them. In this context, a central question arises: How can societies be
better prepared for the future? This research note presents an example of strategic foresight as an instrument for
better understanding systemic challenges, anticipating the emergent risks and opportunities and informing
future-proof decision-making. More specically, it reects central insights of a regional foresight project that
aimed at exploring development pathways of the Italian province South Tyrol for the next 10 years and beyond
(2030+). Delineating four plausible, equivalent and consistent scenarios and their entailed challenges, risks and
opportunities for South Tyrol, the project offers a future-oriented policy instrument for political, economic and
civil actors and key stakeholders. Instead of a classic empirical outlet, the article is prepared as a research note
that, beyond sketching the scenarios, shares the project experiences, lessons learned, challenges and success
factors for other future regional foresight endeavors.
1. Introduction
The COVID-19 pandemic has hit societies all around the globe, with
tremendous consequences. Beyond its impact on individual and public
health, the ensuing crisis has also accentuated existing social and eco-
nomic problems and, in many cases, exacerbated them (Berkhout et al.,
2021; Riz et al., 2020). At the same time, the rm line of many states and
sub-national political authorities in their response to the pandemic has
pushed presumed limits of political agency. This has contributed to a
renewed awareness of the fact that social and economic developments,
instead of being inevitable products of nature-like forces, are better
conceived of as processes that can (and possibly should) be politically
steered. Thus, the unprecedented global situation in the wake of the
pandemic poses not only an immense challenge but also a historic op-
portunity for deliberate societal change.
This is even more important if we consider that even beyond the
COVID-19 pandemic, the global community is currently facing an
interwoven bundle of ecological (IPCC, 2018; World Economic Forum,
2021), social (Berkhout et al., 2021; Bruine de Bruin et al., 2020) and
economic (Alvaredo et al., 2018) crises. As Altan and Dowman (2021, p.
56) argue, this situation requires returning “back to basics”, implying a
societal learning process that aims at more sustainable and resilient
relations between humans and the more-than-human world. This pro-
cess of reorientation can be facilitated by an active engagement with
possible futures, allowing the anticipation of future challenges and the
building of resilient strategies (Bourgeois et al., 2017; Gariboldi et al.,
2021; Thore, 2022).
Therefore, in this research note we present central insights of a
project that aimed at exploring plausible development pathways of the
Italian province of South Tyrol – which is autonomously governed and
enjoys extensive rights of self-administration – for the next 10 years and
beyond (2030+) (Habicher et al., 2020). It reects the key role the
European Commission has attributed to strategic foresight – the “disci-
pline of exploring, anticipating and shaping the future” (European
Commission, 2020, p. 4) – for future-proof policymaking at various
political levels. As Gariboldi et al. (2021) stress, foresight is particularly
effective when linear thinking is inadequate, making it a well-suited tool
for engaging with post-pandemic futures (see e.g., Echegaray 2021;
Morea 2021; Wood et al. 2021). Yet, as thorough literature analyses
reveal, comprehensive regional foresight in the context of political
* Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: daria.habicher@eurac.edu (D. Habicher), felix.windegger@eurac.edu (F. Windegger), vondergracht@steinbeis-sibe.de (H.A. von der Gracht),
harald.pechlaner@eurac.edu (H. Pechlaner).
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
Technological Forecasting & Social Change
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/techfore
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2022.121749
Received 29 May 2021; Received in revised form 9 May 2022; Accepted 12 May 2022

Technological Forecasting & Social Change 180 (2022) 121749
2
governance and especially related to a sub-national provincial territory
is a rather new phenomenon and still rarely found and documented
(Kindras et al., 2019; Nagimov et al., 2018; Piirainen et al., 2017). It is
only recently that, against the backdrop of this rising awareness of the
importance of policy and governmental foresight, the regional level has
also received increased attention (Kindras et al., 2019; Nagimov et al.,
2018; Piirainen et al., 2017). Regional foresight has been especially
useful in fostering discussions on sustainable development paths and
anchor regional policymaking in participatory processes (Amini et al.,
2021).
Launched in early summer 2020, a time of great insecurity due to the
COVID-19 pandemic also in the regional context of South Tyrol, the
research project used the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development of the
United Nations, with focus on its sustainable development goals (SDGs),
and the European Green Deal of the European Commission as constant
points of reference for a development oriented towards a multi-
dimensional understanding of sustainability (European Commission,
2019). Based on extensive trend database and literature studies, expert
workshops and in-depth interviews, our foresight project delineated four
plausible, equivalent and consistent scenarios for a post-pandemic South
Tyrol in the year 2030. We enriched the scenarios by additional ele-
ments including scenario portraits (highlighting existing driving forces),
future personas (illustrating a typical day of a ctitious person; see
Fergnani 2019) and an assessment of the potential future SDG
achievement (assessing the likely future progress of the SDGs) for each
scenario. Beyond that, a future radar outlined possibilities for action to
move towards a more sustainable future of South Tyrol, also estimating
the compatibility of these opportunities with each scenario. Overall, the
outcome of the research project offers a future-oriented working in-
strument for political, economic and civil actors and other stakeholders.
2. Four scenarios for South Tyrol 2030þ
Our foresight project team was composed of 9 researchers of
different disciplines and foresight experts, supported by a scientic
board composed of 20 local and international experts. The composition
of both the research team and the scientic board was purposefully
compiled with a strong interdisciplinary orientation. Their members
were selected along diverse disciplines, ranging from political science
and sociology to economics, business, law and ecology.
We structured the research process itself along the three generic
foresight phases: (1) Environmental scanning: In this phase, the status
quo was captured, and current developments, inuence factors and
drivers were identied. (2) Foresight: In the second phase, the actual
analysis and simulation of different futures took place. Based on and
accompanied by participative workshops and an intensive study of the
relevant databases and literature, four scenarios were developed. (3)
Transfer: The third and nal phase aimed at initiating the imple-
mentation process. In order to highlight options for action derived from
the scenario analysis, a so-called future radar was developed.
For the scenario development we used the scenario axes approach,
which is particularly well suited for exploring possible development
trajectories (Ramirez and Wilkinson, 2014; van ’t Klooster and van
Asselt, 2006). It is based on the careful selection of two central un-
certainties (or variables) regarding the future development – in our case,
South Tyrol. They were identied against the backdrop of larger inter-
national trends and developments that have already, in different forms
and to different degrees, spilled over to the South Tyrolean context and
are likely to continue shaping both local discourses and practices. They
are, rst, the ‘degree of transformation’ and, second, the ‘culture of
cooperation’. The former refers to the uncertainty regarding the extent
and depth of societal change expected in the wake of the COVID-19
pandemic (‘selective adjustments’ vs. ‘radical change’). The latter re-
ects diverging types and patterns of relations structuring the interac-
tion between individuals, organizations and political authorities both at
the local and international level (‘regional competition’ vs. ‘global
solidarity’). Combining the two uncertainties as axes in a coordinate
system yields four elds of possible futures or raw scenarios. Each of
them is characterized by the interplay of a pair of poles (e.g., selective
adjustments and regional competition), which constituted the backbone
for the subsequent elaboration of the four scenarios. We constructed
each narrative iteratively using the same story framework of seven di-
mensions: world, society, wellbeing, economy, environment, politics,
technology.
2.1. Scenario 1: world of regional consciousness – ‘Our strength lies in
tradition’
Scenario 1 emerges at the intersection of the two poles ‘radical
change’ and ‘regional competition’. It describes a world in 2030, where
the COVID-19 crisis has exposed the risks of a fully integrated, global-
ized world economy. At the same time, the pandemic has led to a
growing climate of instability and uncertainty, while also increasing the
perceived need for national security. In combination with existing in-
equalities, this has propelled social tensions and political polarization,
contributing, on an international level, to a surge of populist politics, a
prioritization of national self-interests and a deliberate downscaling of
global cooperation and exchange. Multilateral international agreements
and frameworks have largely been terminated, global organizations
such as the United Nations have lost most of their importance. Inter-
national relations are now primarily characterized by geopolitical ten-
sions and rivalry among nation states and geopolitical blocks. Within
most countries, governments have adopted a much more active role than
previously in shaping social, cultural and economic processes. For
example, tariff and non-tariff-based trade barriers have been introduced
or raised to protect and strengthen regional chains of production, while
more and more resources have been directed towards preserving and
reviving local customs, traditions and languages. Also, social and envi-
ronmental protection have gained considerable importance. Yet, in most
cases, the implied efforts are limited to the majority population and the
geographic territory of the country in question, deliberately excluding
‘others’ and ‘the outside’.
In South Tyrol, most people feel a strong sense of home and identify
with the territory they live in. Conservative values, traditional customs
and patriarchal family structures as well as the implied gender roles
have increasingly replaced more progressive, globalized ideals and
lifestyles. Social security and public health are central political objec-
tives. However, most of the entailed measures explicitly exclude people
with a migration background. The national political landscape in Italy is
dominated by a strong political centralism, which regularly leads to
tensions with autonomous regions – such as Trentino-South Tyrol –
which are constantly trying to expand their self-governing competences.
Whenever possible, the South Tyrolean government insists on pursuing
its own political path, independently of national directives. In order to
strengthen local business cycles and be more self-sufcient and less
reliant on imports in a world of global economic turbulences and high
tariffs, resources and production capacities have increasingly been
directed away from export-oriented production (e.g., of apples, milk)
and more towards the production of goods and services for the local
population’s needs. Some industries have been particularly strongly
subsidized and diversied in recent years, such as the handicraft sector
or agricultural production. Environmental policies in South Tyrol focus
on nature conservation within its own borders, while international
climate protection targets have been abandoned entirely. The efforts
regarding climate change are focused on adaption at the local level.
Energy self-sufciency is fostered by scaling up the use of the already
existing hydroelectric power plants and by replacing heating oil and
natural gas to an increasing extent with local biomass (even if the pro-
duction costs are signicantly higher than in other regions). Techno-
logical progress is of minor importance according to most South
Tyroleans. This general attitude is reected in very low public in-
vestments in digitalization efforts as well as in research and
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Technological Forecasting & Social Change 180 (2022) 121749
3
development, resulting in a reduced international competitiveness.
However, the low level of connectivity and digitalization has made
South Tyrol an enclave of the ‘analog way of life’. This has attracted
more and more visitors who are looking for peace and quiet, decelera-
tion and ‘digital detox’.
2.2. Scenario 2: world of neo-cosmopolitanism – ‘Think global, act local’
Scenario 2 arises out of the combination of the two poles ‘radical
change’ and ‘global solidarity’. It describes a world in 2030, where the
COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the vulnerability and unsustain-
ability of a world economy geared to endless growth and contributed to
a radical rethinking towards socially fair and ecologically sustainable
patterns of production and lifestyles. In most parts of the world, the
equalization of social and economic inequalities, a democratization of
society, as well as climate and environmental justice are central political
concerns. Since 2020, a profound structural change has taken place,
which has led to a tendency towards a growth-neutral realignment in
many areas of society. The focus is no longer on global economic growth
but on the well-being of people. As a consequence, prosperity is no
longer measured by GDP but by a combination of alternative prosperity
indicators. In order to be able to better deal with global challenges,
governmental decision-making and administrative competencies are
steadily transferred to institutions at the subnational level. When it
comes to value-creation processes, the increasing shift toward regional,
socially fair and ecologically sustainable has led to a reduction in the
global transport of goods and commodities. At the same time, the ex-
change of ideas and international cooperation, mainly via digital tools,
has multiplied. Through strongly promoted redistribution policies,
equality of opportunity has signicantly increased. However, the focus
on a more equal distribution of resources and wealth has, in some cases,
caused private property rights to be restricted, mainly at the expense of
large companies and the wealthiest in society. Also, technological
progress and the speed of technological innovation are partially slowed
down by the experienced social realignment, although this development
is not welcomed by everyone.
With the help of a cross-linguistic, cross-generational and future-
oriented “social contract”, South Tyrol has succeeded in initiating a
socially and ecologically compatible reorientation in most dimensions of
society. South Tyrol’s economic policy ensures democratic and fair
economic processes through following the new international standards
and, additionally, by introducing supplementary guidelines, pro-
hibitions and control mechanisms. Socially speaking, the province has
become more inclusive, with marginalized and disadvantaged people
being helped by generous support structures and services, e.g., in
healthcare, labor-market integration, community building and educa-
tion. This is reected in the high number of innovative care structures
for children, young people and senior citizens, new working models and
the strengthening of volunteering. Linguistic and cultural diversity is
embraced and cherished. Also politically, South Tyrol serves as a
governance model for participation, multilingualism and inclusion. This
integrative thought is reected in and supported by a vibrant, local and
participatory political culture, a rise in civil-society engagement and a
strong sense of responsibility towards society and other people. Many
South Tyrolians feel connected to and in solidarity with the world
community and have changed their consumption patterns and lifestyles
accordingly. They have recognized their responsibility in the ght
against climate change. In the eld of agriculture, the province is
striving to become more self-sufcient. In the electricity sector, the focus
is on hydropower, wind power and photovoltaics, but, more impor-
tantly, on a general reduction of unsustainable resource-consumption
levels. In the area of mobility, the focus is on zero-emission public
transport powered by renewable energy. The reduction of cars, the
conversion of agriculture and strict spatial planning have been suc-
cessful in preserving and expanding green areas and undeveloped living
space. Furthermore, thanks to open-source, non-proprietary software
and platforms, South Tyrol has succeeded not only in reducing CO
2
emissions but also in making peripheral areas attractive and stopping
the rural exodus. At a global level, the decarbonization of the economy is
already well advanced. This is, amongst other factors, thanks to taxation
and other regulatory measures to internalize social and environmental
costs.
2.3. Scenario 3: world of individual freedom – ‘I am the architect of my
own happiness’
Scenario 3 connects the poles ‘selective adjustments and ‘regional
competition’. It describes a world in 2030, where the heavy regulatory
interference of governments during the COVID-19 pandemic was
perceived by many as an excessive and partly illegitimate encroachment
of state authority on individual freedom. Consequently, in the wake of
the pandemic, values such as individualism, liberty and personal re-
sponsibility have been consolidated as preeminent societal guiding
principles in many parts of the world. Accordingly, the trust in market
mechanisms and competition as the best principle of societal organiza-
tion has been strengthened. Most countries have aimed at a fast recovery
through a focus on stimulating economic growth. Policy measures and
reforms linked to privatization, deregulation of markets and the prolif-
eration of market logic to other, previously non-economic domains have
seen a surge in recent years. The implied reforms have led to growing
international competition in many sectors, fueling pioneering spirit,
technological progress and economic growth. At the same time, a lack of
social protection and redistributing mechanisms has contributed to ris-
ing social and economic inequalities, both within and between coun-
tries. Similarly, environmental regulations have been widely dismantled
all over the globe, with CO
2
emissions being on the rise. Private in-
vestments in geo-engineering technologies and nuclear power 2.0 have
(so far) failed to address the impeding threat of rising global
temperatures.
In South Tyrol, social and economic institutions and policies are
oriented towards individualism, performance and growth. The entailed
increased international competitiveness as a business location has
attracted foreign investments and benetted local businesses and en-
trepreneurs. At the same time, parts of the population – mostly young
people and marginalized groups – suffer under the psychological, social
and economic pressures implied by an increasingly accelerated,
competitive and individualized society. The labor market in South Tyrol
has gradually been liberalized. Despite this, South Tyrol is struggling to
create enough jobs for highly qualied workers across all industries. The
entailed skill mismatch has led to a short-term increase in unemploy-
ment, which, in turn, has favored the emigration of highly qualied
workers. The political landscape at provincial level is characterized by a
rather managerial approach to politics, being inuenced by various
(mostly economic) interest groups, while cooperation with municipal-
ities, civil-society groups and citizens has become less important.
Regarding landscape and spatial planning, building concessions are
easily granted, increasingly also in green areas. As a result, the number
of new buildings, hotels and commercial zones has been rising, while
green undeveloped areas continue to be reduced. More generally, issues
related to climate and environmental protection play a minor role in
public policy and in public awareness. Combined with the focus on
economic competitiveness and growth, this has contributed to rising
resource and energy consumption levels. Since the COVID-19 pandemic,
private transport has increased signicantly compared to the use of
public transport, leading to more noise, road and air pollution. As most
of the energy supply (especially in mobility and heating) still relies on
fossil fuels, emissions have also steadily grown, despite some isolated
efforts towards greater energy efciency, mostly by private innovation-
oriented companies. Technological progress in general is focused on
digitalization and automatization. For instance, in the hospitality and
tourism industry, more and more service areas are digitalized and/or
automatized. However, in the international competition between
D. Habicher et al.

Technological Forecasting & Social Change 180 (2022) 121749
4
technology locations, South Tyrol has not been able to catch up and still
lags behind considerably. 5G networks remain localized infrastructure
projects, favoring urban over rural and mountain areas. The public-
health sector in South Tyrol is being increasingly privatized. While
many South Tyroleans prot from the entailed possibilities for individ-
ualized health services, for some the access to adequate health care has
become increasingly difcult.
2.4. Scenario 4: world of green innovation – ‘There is a (technological)
solution to everything’
Scenario 4 results from the conjunction of the poles ‘selective ad-
justments’ and ‘global solidarity’. It describes a world in 2030, where
the international community has grown closer together through the
coordinated efforts and close cooperation in overcoming the COVID-19
pandemic. Existing multilateral institutions and agreements have been
strengthened, and new ones launched. The need for coordinated action
in also addressing other global challenges has been emphasized. Eco-
nomic growth, technological progress and investments in research and
education are conceived of as the most important instruments for
increasing prosperity and addressing issues such as poverty or social
inequality. Even environmental challenges are tackled almost exclu-
sively through technological innovation and market-based instruments.
Investments in efciency-oriented, low-emission technologies have been
highly subsidized. New waves of digitalization, ‘smart’ technologies and
AI are becoming the engine of an intensifying and deepening global
integration.
In South Tyrol, cross-border transnational and interregional collab-
oration plays an ever more important role – socially, politically and
economically. Most South Tyroleans feel – thanks to new technologies
and growing networks of cooperation – increasingly connected to the
world in a ‘global village’. During the pandemic, South Tyrol had started
to invest large sums in research and innovation as well as in education
and culture. Exchange programs and opportunities for life-long learning
are provided and/or funded by the provincial government. In combi-
nation with the systematical promotion of business creations, this has
led to a vibrant start-up culture in which new, ‘green’ business models
and ideas are experimented with. New approaches to nancing, such as
crowdfunding and ‘sustainable nance’, have become popular in South
Tyrol as well. The ourishing entrepreneurial culture in turn creates
more attractive jobs for high-skilled workers, which counteracts the
brain drain previously experienced in South Tyrol. ‘Smart’ working and
virtual business meetings have become commonplace. Even spiritual/
religious practices and democratic decision-making processes are
increasingly transferred to the digital space, supported by the growing
use of algorithms and AI. Measures to improve gender inequality are
promoted, mostly aimed at decreasing gender gaps related to income or
leadership positions. Yet, due to rising expectations on women in the
working life and unchanged gender-specic role models when it comes
to reproductive labor and care work, the pressure on women has often
become higher. To meet the internationally agreed climate-protection
targets, the public sector invests in renewable energies and
technology-driven solutions (e.g., e-mobility, energy-efcient renova-
tions of buildings and the electrication of heating systems), while still
primarily relying on market-based instruments (e.g., nancial in-
centives, redesign of the subsidy policy). This leads to a slight reduction
of CO
2
emissions. However, the ‘rebound effect’ (i.e., increasing con-
sumption levels due to efciency improvements), together with the
steady growth of the economy, has prevented efciency improvements
from leading to reductions in the total energy and resource consump-
tion. In addition, extensive investments in low-emission technologies
and digital infrastructures have further increased the dependence on
raw materials and rare earths, perpetuating socially and environmen-
tally damaging extractive practices, mostly in the Global South.
3. Reections on the foresight project
During the research process, we were able to gain important insights
that we would like to share. One of them refers to the key role of
interdisciplinarity. Only by including the knowledge, approaches and
perspectives of a broad range of scientic disciplines did it become
possible to obtain a plausible, consistent and comprehensive picture on
future development paths and their implications across societal di-
mensions. The main reason for this lies in the complex nature and the
interdependency of social processes and dynamics, which cannot
adequately be captured from the perspective of one isolated subject or
discipline alone. However, bringing together researchers and experts
with a strong disciplinary background also entails challenges, the most
important of which is to leave ingrained ways of thinking in disciplinary
boundaries and be able to establish transversal links to topics, ap-
proaches and insights of other disciplines. In the case of the scenario
outlook for South Tyrol, this potential obstacle within the core research
team was addressed through several meetings that were held at the
beginning of the research process in which differing methodologies,
research subjects and conceptions were discussed, stimulating the
awareness and sensitivity for interdisciplinary issues. This process was
further facilitated by the fact that various team members had an inter-
disciplinary academic background.
As a consequence of the interdisciplinary research approach, the
elaboration of the four scenarios shed light on diverging development
paths from different angles, highlighting potential lines of conict
within and between scenarios, which might have been neglected by a
monodisciplinary approach. An example for such a tension is linked to
the social and ecological implications of a sustainable development
strategy relying primarily on economic growth and technology-based
solutions to social and environmental challenges. While certain
sustainability-related goals (e.g., SDG 8: Decent work and economic
growth) might be perfectly covered by such a strategy, others might be
hard to achieve or even prevented from being achieved (e.g., SDG 13:
Climate action). In addition, these strategies might be particularly
feasible for and benecial to some countries (mostly in the Global
North), while involving more detrimental consequences for others
(mainly in the Global South). This hints at the importance for any
sustainability-oriented foresight endeavor, be it on the regional, the
national or the global scale, to make potential conicts between objec-
tives visible and engage with them openly.
Contrary to other foresight projects at the regional level (see Amini
et al. 2021), the vast majority of regional-based actors and stakeholders
were included after the scenario building process had been completed.
This allowed the minimization of biases related to vested political in-
terests and kept the scenario process as neutral as possible (Gariboldi
et al., 2021). An exception to this were the regional experts, mostly
academics with a scientic background, who were members of the
expert board. They were included from the beginning in order to
incorporate the local and context-specic knowledge decisive for a
sound understanding of the history as well as the status quo of South
Tyrol and the ways in which mechanisms of change tend to work in the
province. Local stakeholders were more broadly invited to participate in
the project transfer phase. Their involvement was crucial to increase the
validity of the outcome of the foresight process and to prepare the
ground for a successful implementation phase, in which the local
stakeholders play a key role. We decided to conduct a survey among
South Tyrolean associations from various sectors and elds (of the 80
associations contacted, a total of 37 sent back a fully lled-out ques-
tionnaire) as well as one stakeholder workshop to present the results of
the survey and bring together key stakeholders, civil society and polit-
ical representatives. Thereby, a platform could be provided to inform
about the foresight project, link it to existing initiatives and initiate the
transfer phase.
In order to further support the translation into action, we also
elaborated a future radar containing a nal set of 27 concrete options for
D. Habicher et al.

Technological Forecasting & Social Change 180 (2022) 121749
5
action derived from the scenario analysis. They were grouped according
to four dimensions (environment, social, economic, governance) in
which the province of South Tyrol can work on to become more sus-
tainable. An assessment of the compatibility of each measure with each
scenario was included in the nal report. Additionally, an in-depth
analysis of the scenarios through the lens of the 2030 Agenda for Sus-
tainable Development and the entailed 17 SDGs was provided, unveiling
stark differences related to the expected degree of target achievement of
the four scenarios. This was intended to provide some guidance as to the
judgement of the development paths sketched in the scenarios and their
consequences from a sustainability perspective.
Looking ahead, the next steps would need to involve a participatory
process in which, against the backdrop of the four scenarios and the
additional analytical elements provided, a common vision of a sustain-
able future for South Tyrol is dened and choices regarding the direction
in which the province – as a whole, but also in terms of individual
businesses, organizations and associations – wants to move are made.
Subsequently, specic elds of action should be dened, followed by the
implementation of concrete strategies and measures aiming to achieve
the goals dened. A monitoring system accompanying the imple-
mentation process is fundamental for its success, assessing its progress
and providing the possibility for feedback loops and amendments. In
order to allow for synergies, the foresight project should also be con-
nected to the multitude of already existing initiatives aiming at a sus-
tainability transformation in South Tyrol. Various actors on different
levels and in different societal dimensions play a role in this context,
with the Provincial Government being a central one. While the imple-
mentation phase is still at the very beginning, some exemplary moves
have already been made. For instance, the Provincial Government is
including the insights of the foresight process in the elaboration of a new
tourism guideline for South Tyrol (Germ.
Landestourismusentwicklungskonzept).
4. Conclusion
This research note aims at sharing some of the experiences made in
and lessons learned from a regional foresight project for the Italian
province of South Tyrol conducted in the midst of the COVID-19
pandemic in 2020. In this time of multiple crises, increasing collective
uncertainty and rapid societal change, anticipating future de-
velopments, opportunities and challenges has become more important
than ever for the members of a society in order to be able to actively
shape their own future in desired directions. This is particularly true for
the regional level, for which this project provides an innovative
example. Employing the scenario-axes technique, it yielded four sub-
stantively different, yet equally plausible and consistent pictures of
possible futures for South Tyrol in the year 2030, with the nal report
being enriched by additional narrative and content-related elements. In
its entirety, the project offers a multi-faceted, future-oriented tool for
political, economic and civil actors who are working towards a sus-
tainable reorientation of South Tyrol.
Beyond delineating the scenario analysis, this research note also
includes a discussion on key lessons learned and success factors for
future regional foresight processes. This involves, rstly, the require-
ment of interdisciplinary approaches to adequately grasp the complex
nature of societal developments depicted in the four scenarios. Secondly,
the deliberate consideration of and engagement with lines of conict
between and within scenarios enables a better understanding of in-
consistencies and barriers to a steered sustainability transformation.
Thirdly, in a political domain, a broad stakeholder involvement was
found benecial in the implementation phase rather than the scenario
development in order to reduce biases related to political interests and
keep the foresight process as neutral as possible (see also Gariboldi et al.
2021). Lastly, additional analytical tools, concrete examples and ini-
tiatives could be exploited in order to support and promote the transfer
phase.
Every foresight process, especially on the regional level, is different.
This is linked to the diversity and complexity of different regional con-
texts, their actors, dynamics and challenges, which implies that there is
no single right way to address it. In addition, methodologies have so far
rarely been standardized and are often poorly reported (Vollmar et al.,
2015). For this reason, the documentation and sharing of key learnings
of successful foresight processes is particularly valuable for informing
similar future projects. After all, the COVID-19 pandemic, but also the
impending climate crisis, are critical examples of how decisions made
today dene our opportunities tomorrow. Against this backdrop,
fostering foresight approaches and implementing them in regional and
strategic planning presents an important means of support for
future-proof decision-making across sectors and scales, especially in
times of uncertainty.
CRediT authorship contribution statement
Daria Habicher: Conceptualization, Methodology, Writing – orig-
inal draft, Writing – review & editing, Project administration. Felix
Windegger: Conceptualization, Methodology, Writing – original draft,
Writing – review & editing. Heiko A. von der Gracht: Conceptualiza-
tion, Methodology, Writing – review & editing, Supervision. Harald
Pechlaner: Conceptualization, Methodology, Writing – original draft,
Supervision.
Declaration of Competing Interest
The authors declare that there are no conicts of interest regarding
the project publication of this paper.
Acknowledgments
We thank the Provincial Government of the Autonomous Province of
Bolzano-South Tyrol under the chairmanship of Provincial Governor
Arno Kompatscher and his advisor for sustainability, Klaus Egger, for
their valuable collaboration in the study project. Special thanks also go
to Innovation Development Marketing (IDM) South Tyrol and the
advisory board members, consisting of local and international experts
who contributed with discussions, interviews and surveys. Lastly, spe-
cial thanks go to our colleagues from the Eurac Research project team.
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Daria Habicher is a Researcher at the Center for Advanced Studies, EURAC Research,
Bozen-Bolzano, Italy. She holds a Bachelor of Arts in political science from the University
of Vienna and a Master of Science in socioeconomy from Vienna University of Economics
and Business. Daria Habicher was project lead for the post-pandemic scenario project for
South Tyrol 2030+.
Felix Windegger is a Junior Researcher at the Center for Advanced Studies, EURAC
Research, Bozen-Bolzano, Italy. He holds a Master of Science in Socio-Ecological Eco-
nomics and Policy from Vienna University of Economics and Business. He specializes in
research on ecological economy and was part of the project team that developed post-
pandemic scenarios for South Tyrol 2030+.
Heiko A. von der Gracht is Professor of Futures Studies and Foresight at Steinbeis Uni-
versity, School of International Business and Entrepreneurship (SIBE), in Germany. Before
he was Associate Professor at University of Erlangen–Nuremberg. He holds a PhD in
Business Studies from EBS University of Business and Law, Germany. His research interests
encompass corporate foresight, the Delphi and scenario techniques, foresight skills and
education, and quality standards in futures research. His works have been published in
several books and peer-reviewed journals, including Technological Forecasting & Social
Change, Journal of Business Research, and Journal of Supply Chain Management.
Harald Pechlander is Foundation Professor of Tourism at the Catholic University of
Eichstaett-Ingolstadt, Germany. In addition to his university activities, he is also Head of
the Center for Advanced Studies at the European Academy of Bolzano (EURAC Research)
and President of AIEST (International Association of Scientic Experts in Tourism) since
2014 as well as author and (co-)editor of more than 50 books and more than 200 articles in
books and journals.
D. Habicher et al.