No full-text available
To read the full-text of this research,
you can request a copy directly from the authors.
How individual differences in knowledge over-/underconfidence impede dietary consumer decision making under time pressure
Abstract
In two studies, we identify a novel moderator (objective time pressure) of the relationship between knowledge over-/underconfidence (O/U) and subjective choice quality. Knowledge O/U is an individual difference variable with behavioral correlates in the consumption realm. As a common decision bias, knowledge overconfidence leads consumers to speed up decision making and to deem their decisions more accurate than those who are less knowledge confident. As knowledge-overconfident consumers accelerate decisions, it is tempting to assume that they would be less affected by objective time pressure than less knowledge confident consumers, who often need more decision time. However, we demonstrate that knowledge-overconfident consumers are more prone to suffer from the effects of objective time pressure. Specifically, in a dietary choice setting, objective time pressure positively moderates the relationship between knowledge O/U and subjective time pressure and perceived choice difficulty, respectively. Taking a moderated-mediation approach, we also investigate perceived choice difficulty and subjective time pressure as mediators of the relationship between knowledge O/U and subjective choice quality and find that objective time pressure moderates these mediating effects.
... There is evidence that individuals are frequently in a state of incomplete information about others' capabilities; thus, they are prone to cognitive biases (Chhabra, Mukherjee, and Agarwal 2023;Moore and Small 2007). For example, some individuals' evaluations of themselves may be lower than the average level (Hansen and Thomsen 2022), especially for individuals with higher levels of performance (Ehrlinger et al. 2008). Because the participants in this study had rich experience with online shopping, their self-underestimation may be influenced by biased information processes. ...
... Because the participants in this study had rich experience with online shopping, their self-underestimation may be influenced by biased information processes. Moreover, some studies have shown that consumers are too confident (Hansen and Thomsen 2022;Jain, Hazra, and Cheng 2018) and are inclined to overestimate their ability to maintain good self-identity (VanBergen, Lurie, and Chen 2022). Therefore, future studies may examine explanations in samples with varied levels of online shopping experiences and competencies. ...
With the development of digital technology, electronic commerce has become an important part of the current economy and brings consumers significant benefits. However, many consumers have lower levels of willingness to shop online. Because consumers’ self-efficacy has a positive effect on their willingness to shop online, it is important to investigate the origins of self-efficacy. This study proposed that consumer competency that indicated by knowledge, attitude, and skill is a significant predictor of self-efficacy and that the relationship between them is moderated by consumer metacognition. Two studies with samples of 379 college students and 494 individuals from the general population revealed that (1) self-efficacy positively predicted consumers’ online consumption willingness; (2) consumers’ knowledge/skill about online shopping negatively correlated with their self-efficacy, i.e., a competent consumer is diffident; (3) consumers’ knowledge/skill negatively predicted their self-efficacy and consumption willingness; and (4) metacognition moderated the relationships between their knowledge/skill and self-efficacy. This study revealed an excessive difference among consumers in online shopping and extended the application scope of theories of metacognition, which may provide a new research direction for future studies. Based on these findings, improving consumers’ competency and metacognition may result in a win‒win situation between consumers and online retailers by improving the sustainability of the relationship between them.
... For example, can consumers evaluate their competency in online shopping objectively and in an unbiased manner? According to the previous literature, consumer may have too much confidence in their capabilities (Hansen & Thomsen, 2022;Jain et al., 2018). The results of Study 1 also indicated this possibility. ...
Lower levels of consumer competency are a major obstacle preventing consumers from benefitting from online shopping. However, the literature provides little information on consumers' competency in online shopping. Based on the consumption decision-making process model, in Study 1, 12 college students with rich experience in online shopping were interviewed. A three-step coding process was conducted, and the results illustrated the key competencies of online shopping, i.e., product identification, self-control, support for decision-making, and consumer protection. Based on the results of Study 1 and the knowledge-attitude-skill model, Study 2 developed three subscales to evaluate college students' knowledge, attitude, and skill regarding online shopping in standardized and systematic ways. The validity of the instrument was examined in a sample of 648 college students. Study 3 further examined and demonstrated the quality of the three subscales in a new sample of 494 residents. Moreover, a latent profile analysis (LPA) divided the participants into three groups based on their consumer competency: low-, median-, and high-competence consumers. The findings contribute to the literature on consumer competency and online shopping and have different implications for consumers, the government, and corporations.
... Studies have been done on "consumer choices, market entry and decision-making by firms, financial markets and bubbles" (Dietrich 2017, 1). Some examples include how the media popularity of a CEO generates overconfidence that affects their decision-making (Hayward, Rindova, and Pollock 2004); how overconfidence affects the decision-making of investors and entrepreneurs (Heller 2014), managers (Ben-David, Graham, andHarvey 2013;Čuláková et al. 2017) and consumers (Razmdoost, Dimitriu, and MacDonald 2015;Hansen and Thomsen 2022). Closely related to disinformation, Serra-García and Gneezy studied people's ability to detect lies and concluded that "recipients were overconfident in their absolute and relative ability to correctly classify lies and truthful videos" and also that "men were more overconfident than women" (Serra-García and Gnezzi 2021, 3171). ...
This study introduces the concept of “nobody-fools-me perception”, a cognitive bias consisting of overconfidence in one’s own ability to detect disinformation, associated with the belief that one is more immune to false content than almost everyone else. Specifically, it examines the extent to which variables such as age and education determine the conviction that one is able to spot false content, and influence the skills and habits of checking and sharing potentially unverified information on health, a serious problem in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic. Based on two face-to-face focus groups and one online focus group made up of Spanish people between the ages of 25 and 54, this qualitative research study explored the behaviour of regular citizens when assessing the truthfulness of health-related news, and their habits about believing it. The results reveal that younger people tended to distrust the ability of older people to spot false content, and vice versa. They also show that people with a higher educational level were more confident about their own immunity to disinformation. By introducing the concept of “nobody-fools-me perception”, this study contributes to our understanding of how subjective perceptions lead to believing in false news.
People tend to hold overly favorable views of their abilities in many social and intellectual domains. The authors suggest that this overestimation occurs, in part, because people who are unskilled in these domains suffer a dual burden: Not only do these people reach erroneous conclusions and make unfortunate choices, but their incompetence robs them of the metacognitive ability to realize it. Across 4 studies, the authors found that participants scoring in the bottom quartile on tests of humor, grammar, and logic grossly overestimated their test performance and ability. Although their test scores put them in the 12th percentile, they estimated themselves to be in the 62nd. Several analyses linked this miscalibration to deficits in metacognitive skill, or the capacity to distinguish accuracy from error. Paradoxically, improving the skills of participants, and thus increasing their metacognitive competence, helped them recognize the limitations of their abilities.
Evaluating one’s own performance on a task, typically known as ‘self-assessment’, is perceived as a fundamental skill, but people appear poorly calibrated to their abilities. Studies seem to show poorer calibration for low performers than for high performers, which could indicate worse metacognitive ability among low performers relative to others (the Dunning–Kruger effect). By developing a rational model of self-assessment, we show that such an effect could be produced by two psychological mechanisms, in either isolation or conjunction: influence of prior beliefs about ability or a relation between performance and skill at determining correctness on each problem. To disentangle these explanations, we conducted a large-scale replication of a seminal paper with approximately 4,000 participants in each of two studies. Comparing the predictions of two variants of our rational model provides support for low performers being less able to estimate whether they are correct in the domains of grammar and logical reasoning. Reinvestigating the well-known Dunning–Kruger effect, Jansen et al. apply rational models to the decisions and metacognitive judgments of participants in two large online studies, finding evidence that poor performance comes with inaccurate self-assessment.
Previous research has shown that nudging can effectively support people’s healthy food choices. Yet, to date knowledge about the psychological premises of nudging is limited, highlighting the need for closer scrutiny to determine how and when nudging is most effective. In the current study, we assessed whether the presumed effect of nudging on healthy food choice is enhanced under time pressure, a condition probing alleged system 1 reasoning. Food choice was studied in a realistic virtual reality supermarket where healthier alternatives were nudged by making them more salient. We additionally explored possible differences in decision-making experiences related to nudging or time pressure. The study took place at a science festival where visitors could decide to participate in a study. Participants (n = 99) had to purchase four products, each from a different product category that was provided on a shopping list. In the nudging condition, one healthier option within each product category was nudged by making it more salient. While a main effect of nudging was found, showing in increased healthy food choices, this effect was not further qualified by time pressure, suggesting that the effectiveness of nudging is not enhanced under system 1 conditions. Relatedly, people who were and who were not aware of the nudges showed similar effects of nudging on healthy food choice. Furthermore, no differences in decision-making experiences showed, suggesting that people have similar experiences regarding impulsive and reflective decision-making irrespective of whether they are being nudged or put under time pressure. All in all, our findings are in line with recent viewpoints on the premises of nudges, suggesting that alleged system 1 conditions are not a prerequisite for nudging to be effective.
Objective:
The current research comprehensively examined how grandiose and vulnerable narcissism are linked to intelligence and intelligence-related beliefs and emotions.
Method:
In four studies (total N = 1141) we tested the associations between both forms of narcissism, subjectively and objectively assessed intelligence, basic personality traits, test-related stress, beliefs about intelligence and well-being.
Results:
Both forms of narcissism (grandiose and vulnerable) were unrelated to objective intelligence. Grandiose narcissism was associated with high self-perceived intelligence (Studies 1-3) and explained more variance in self-perceived intelligence than objective intelligence and the Big Five personality traits. It was correlated with reduced distress in the context of IQ testing and low engagement in cognitive performance (Study 2). Individuals with high grandiose narcissism based their well-being (Study 3) partly on intelligence and considered intelligence important for success in different life domains, especially for social relations (Study 4). Vulnerable narcissism was unrelated to self-perceived intelligence (Studies 1-3) and went along with increased distress in the context of IQ testing (Study 2).
Conclusions:
The results indicate that the topic of intelligence is of key importance for people with high grandiose narcissism psychological functioning and it also has some relevance for individuals with high vulnerable narcissism.
Poor food literacy behaviours may contribute to food insecurity in developed countries. The aim of this research was to describe the apparent prevalence of food insecurity in adults at enrolment in a food literacy program and to examine the relationship between food insecurity and a range of independent variables. Individuals attending the Food Sensations® for Adults program in Western Australia from May 2016 to April 2018 completed a pre-program questionnaire (n = 1433) indicating if they had run of money for food in the past month (food insecurity indicator), frequency of food literacy behaviours, selected dietary behaviours, and demographic characteristics. The level of food insecurity reported by participants (n = 1379) was 40.5%. Results from multiple logistic regression demonstrated that behaviours related to planning and management, shopping, preparation, and cooking were all statistically independently associated with food insecurity, in addition to soft/soda drink consumption, education, employment status, and being born in Australia. The results are salient as they indicate an association between food literacy and food insecurity. The implications are that food insecure participants may respond differently to food literacy programs. It may be necessary to screen people enrolling in programs, tailor program content, and include comprehensive measures in evaluation to determine effect on the impact of food literacy programs on different subgroups.
There is widespread agreement among scientists that genetically modified foods are safe to consume and have the potential to provide substantial benefits to humankind3. However, many people still harbour concerns about them or oppose their use. In a nationally representative sample of US adults, we find that as extremity of opposition to and concern about genetically modified foods increases, objective knowledge about science and genetics decreases, but perceived understanding of genetically modified foods increases. Extreme opponents know the least, but think they know the most. Moreover, the relationship between self-assessed and objective knowledge shifts from positive to negative at high levels of opposition. Similar results were obtained in a parallel study with representative samples from the United States, France and Germany, and in a study testing attitudes about a medical application of genetic engineering technology (gene therapy). This pattern did not emerge, however, for attitudes and beliefs about climate change.
Our assessments of how much we know about a particular topic can be affected by our confidence in our knowledge. Research in judgement and decision making has shown that people are generally overconfident in their judgements or decisions, and that this bias can be reduced with training. We present two studies designed to assess whether debiasing can be accomplished in a classroom setting and whether it has practical value for students. In Experiment 1 simply providing confidence estimates as questions were answered was enough to debias students in a series of course-related quizzes. In Experiment 2, weekly quizzes were given in a computer-administered format. Students were given feedback for each question as it was completed. We found that accuracy on quizzes improved as confidence declined. We also found that students performed better in the course when they received debiasing training. We suggest that debiasing training prompted students to develop and use metacognitive skills that allowed them to assess their knowledge more accurately. Given this, training for these skills has practical value in the classroom. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Self-assessment measures of competency are blends of an authentic self-assessment signal that researchers seek to measure and random disorder or "noise" that accompanies that signal. In this study, we use random number simulations to explore how random noise affects critical aspects of self-assessment investigations: reliability, correlation, critical sample size, and the graphical representations of self-assessment data. We show that graphical conventions common in the self-assessment literature introduce artifacts that invite misinterpretation. Troublesome conventions include: (y minus x) vs. (x) scatterplots; (y minus x) vs. (x) column graphs aggregated as quantiles; line charts that display data aggregated as quantiles; and some histograms. Graphical conventions that generate minimal artifacts include scatterplots with a best-fit line that depict (y) vs. (x) measures (self-assessed competence vs. measured competence) plotted by individual participant scores, and (y) vs. (x) scatterplots of collective average measures of all participants plotted item-by-item. This last graphic convention attenuates noise and improves the definition of the signal. To provide relevant comparisons across varied graphical conventions, we use a single dataset derived from paired measures of 1154 participants' self-assessed competence and demonstrated competence in science literacy. Our results show that different numerical approaches employed in investigating and describing self-assessment accuracy are not equally valid. By modeling this dataset with random numbers, we show how recognizing the varied expressions of randomness in self-assessment data can improve the validity of numeracy-based descriptions of self-assessment.
The role of effort and accuracy in the adaptive use of decision processes is examined. A computer simulation using the concept of elementary information processes identified heuristic choice strategies that approximate the accuracy of normative procedures while saving substantial effort. However, no single heuristic did well across all task and context conditions. Of particular interest was the finding that under time constraints, several heuristics were more accurate than a truncated normative procedure. Using a process-tracing technique that monitors information acquisition behaviors, two experiments tested how closely the efficient processing patterns for a given decision problem identified by the simulation correspond to the actual processing behavior exhibited by subjects. People appear highly adaptive in responding to changes in the structure of the available alternatives and to the presence of time pressure. In general, actual behavior corresponded to the general patterns of efficient processing identified by the simulation. Finally, learning of effort and accuracy trade-offs are discussed.
Evidence for the view that chess skill is dependent on recognitional/perceptual processes has been based primarily on findings from recall tasks and from analyses of verbal protocols. The present study employed a time-pressure manipulation as a possible source of converging evidence, based on assumed differences in the temporal requirements of recognitional versus calculational modes of processing. The rated quality of moves for very strong (master) and weaker (class B) players was compared in tournament games played under regulation and blitz time rules. The findings supported the predicted interaction between skill level and game type wherein the decrement in move quality for blitz games compared with regulation games was greater for the class B players than for the masters. These results were interpreted as supporting the view that the more highly skilled players are able to rely more extensively on rapid recognitional processes than less-skilled players.
The bulk of self-service research has focused on customers' static attitudes toward the technology while failing to note that situational influences can often have just as much, if not more, influence on a customer's decision to approach or avoid a self-service technology (SST). Exploring the importance of these situational influences, the authors conceptualize and empirically test a model of situational influences on customers' perceived time pressure, shopping effectiveness, and attitude toward using an SST. The results of a national panel database study found that during the SST transaction, four situational variables—order size, wait-time tolerance, location convenience, and employee presence—all had a strong influence in customers' SST decisions. Managerial implications are provided about the importance of accounting for situational influences in the adoption and implementation of SSTs going forward.
Purpose – The purpose of this study is to gain a better understanding of the healthy lifestyle consumer by examining demographic, personal value and psychographic antecedents. Design/methodology/approach – A cluster analysis was used to divide consumers into healthy and unhealthy lifestyle segments based on their diet and exercise behavior. A logistic regression analysis was then run on these segments to test the impact of 17 hypothesized antecedents. Findings – Results indicate that people who maintain a healthy lifestyle tend to be female, older, more educated, place less importance on the value of “excitement”, have a greater tendency to plan ahead and tend to experience less role overload. Research limitations/implications – One limitation is that the response rate of the mail survey used to collect data was only 28.8 percent. Another limitation was that the specific types of diet and exercise behavior used to classify respondents into clusters did not encompass the full range of diet and exercise options available to all consumers. Practical implications – The financial impact of the healthy lifestyle consumer on a number of industries is documented. A demographic profile of the healthy lifestyle consumer was obtained which should assist companies seeking to target this segment. The significance of two time-related psychographic predictors suggests that companies looking to expand the market for healthy products may want to focus on ways of making their products/services more convenient to time-pressured consumers. Originality/value – This paper represents one of the first attempts in the marketing literature to study the healthy lifestyle segment.
Two experiments with 268 paid volunteers investigated the possibility that assessment of confidence is biased by attempts to justify one's chosen answer. These attempts include selectively focusing on evidence supporting the chosen answer and disregarding evidence contradicting it. Exp I presented Ss with 2-alternative questions and required them to list reasons for and against each of the alternatives prior to choosing an answer and assessing the probability of its being correct. This procedure produced a marked improvement in the appropriateness of confidence judgments. Exp II simplified the manipulation by asking Ss first to choose an answer and then to list (a) 1 reason supporting that choice, (b) 1 reason contradicting it, or (c) 1 reason supporting and 1 reason contradicting. Only the listing of contradicting reasons improved the appropriateness of confidence. Correlational analyses of the data of Exp I strongly suggested that the confidence depends on the amount and strength of the evidence supporting the answer chosen. (21 ref) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)
Choice confidence is affected by fluency and moderated by construal levels that evoke different theories to interpret the feelings of fluency. At lower construal levels, fluency informs the feasibility of completing the concrete steps of the decision process to choose well, but at higher construal levels, fluency informs (insufficient) effort invested for the desirability of the outcome. We manipulated fluency by varying the font of product descriptions or the number of thoughts we asked participants to recall. Our studies showed that fluency increased confidence for people processing at lower construal levels but decreased confidence for those processing at higher construal levels. Construal level does not affect the persuasiveness of consumers' thoughts, supporting the hypothesis that it is the interpretation of fluency experienced during judgment, not the thought content, that leads to the moderating effects of construal level.
Prior research has suggested that most people are seriously overconfident in their answers to general knowledge questions. We attempted to reduce over-confidence in each of two separate experiments. In Experiment 1 half of the subjects answered five practice questions which appeared to be difficult. The remaining subjects answered practice problems which appeared to be easy but were actually just as difficult as the other group's practice questions. Within each of these two groups, half of the subjects received feedback on the accuracy of their answers to the practice questions, while the other half received no feedback. All four groups then answered 30 additional questions and indicated their confidence in these answers. The group which had received five apparently “easy” practice questions and then had been given feedback on the accuracy of their answers was underconfident on the final 30 questions. In Experiment 2 subjects who anticipated a group discussion of their answers to general knowledge questions took longer to answer the questions and expressed less overconfidence in their answers than did a control group.
An experiment compared dyadic performance in a radio communication and a more sophisticated communication environment to face-to-face (FtF) meetings. Thirty-six dyads, working under low or high time-pressure conditions, needed to combine information and to produce a written plan. Teams working in the sophisticated communication environment collaborated from separate locations over a networked computer system allowing them to share a note-taking program, work in parallel, and exchange in real-time audio as well as video. Results revealed detrimental effects of time pressure on both team processes and outcomes, and supported our hypothesis that distributed teams can perform as well as FtF teams. No differences were found between FtF teams and teams working in the sophisticated communication environment on process and outcome measures, except for the quantity of performance: The sophisticated communication environment enabled distributed teams to work on the task more rapidly than their FtF counterparts. Radio teams produced plans of lower quality and were less satisfied with the quality of their planning process than FtF teams.
Despite the high risk involved, thousands of individuals decide to start ventures. Past research, however, has found that entrepreneurs do not have a high-risk propensity, that is, a great willingness to knowingly take risks. This study, therefore, explores how individuals cope with the risks inherent in their decisions, and suggests that entrepreneurs may not perceive the riskiness of starting ventures.The study's findings suggest that risk perceptions may differ because certain types of cognitive biases lead individuals to perceive less risk. Cognitive biases are common types of mental shortcuts used to make judgments. This study examines three cognitive biases that previous research has suggested may lower risk perception. The first, overconfidence, refers to the failure to know the limits of one's knowledge. The second bias tested, the illusion of control, occurs when individuals overemphasize the extent to which their skill can increase performance in situations where chance plays a large part and skill is not necessarily the deciding factor. Because the individuals believe that they can control largely uncontrollable events, they also think they can accurately predict the outcome of the events. Finally, the third bias, the belief in the law of small numbers occurs when an individual uses a limited number of informational inputs (a small sample of information) to draw firm conclusions.This study's sample consisted of 191 students pursuing a Masters of Business Administration. The students' responses to a survey based on a case study regarding a decision to start a venture were examined. The survey included questions about the students' willingness to start the venture, their perception of the venture's riskiness, and the extent to which they exhibited cognitive biases in their decision processes.The study's findings tentatively suggest that individuals start ventures because they do not perceive the risks involved, and not because they knowingly accept high levels of risks. The belief in the law of small numbers lowered an individual's perceptions of a venture's riskiness, suggesting that some individuals draw firm conclusions from small samples. An illusion of control also decreased risk perception, suggesting that individuals starting ventures might not acknowledge that certain tasks, important to the venture's success, are beyond their control.Some argue that biases might be associated with venture failure. If this is the case, the very processes that increase the likelihood of starting a venture may actually decrease performance. Entrepreneurs may choose to minimize their biases by soliciting and paying heed to the advice of outsiders, or by using group decision-making techniques, such as devil's advocacy or dialectical inquiry.Others, however, suggest that early in the decision process, biases may be beneficial because they lower risk perception, which allows entrepreneurs to generate the commitment needed for success. Even if this is true, entrepreneurs should still institute processes to increase learning so the venture can adjust to unfolding realities and avoid any damage caused by initial misperceptions. Similarly, entrepreneurs need adequate safety nets in case their biases lead them to encounter unforeseen difficulties. The potential positive and negative effects of biases and perceiving low levels of risk suggest the importance of exploring this area further.
Two studies investigated conditions under which subjects would choose not to use a helpful decision rule that would have enabled them to choose correctly on a large proportion (70%) of judgment tasks. In Experiment 1 some subjects were warned that failure to use this rule would probably result in very poor performance. Other subjects were either told that 70% was as well as people can do or were encouraged to outperform the rule. This instructional variable was crossed with an incentive manipulation. Subjects were given either cash for each correct judgment, or a cash award for being the best judge in their group, or no monetary incentive. Those who were warned about abandoning the rule and those who were given no monetary incentive performed best. Those who were told that 70% was about as well as people can do judged as poorly as those encouraged to outperform the rule. Supplementary analyses indicated that both the warning and lack of incentive led subjects to judge more consistently, while subjects in the other conditions changed strategies more frequently after incorrect judgments. The results of Experiment 2 indicated that those who have expertise (or think they have expertise) tend to use a helpful decision rule less than do those with less expertise, and consequently do worse. We suggest that the factors which led subjects to shun the decision rule in these two experiments are present in many important decision-making situations.
Does time pressure affect the cognitive process and subsequently food choices? We use the Drift Diffusion (DD) model and data from a well-controlled experiment to show that the cognitive process behind food choices is subject to significant changes under time pressure. Specifically, we find that subjects tend to accumulate less product information compared to the no time pressure condition. Under time pressure, subjects also spend less time encoding pre-decisional product stimuli and have more information accumulation speed to make food choices. However, faster decisions do not affect the consistency of food choices. Our post hoc analysis suggests that under time pressure, subjects manage to use acquired information as efficiently as in the no time pressure condition. Overall, our results indicate that exposing consumers to less, but more crucial food information, may improve the efficiency and consistency of food choices.
The 1.5° target outlined in the Paris agreement requires immediate and fundamental climate action; the lack of climate knowledge, prevalent misconceptions and purported knowledge may be major barriers. Therefore, this study was carried out to analyze signs of judgmental overconfidence in lay climate knowledge using a quota sample of 499 Austrians. Results indicate that several misconceptions exist, e.g., regarding the role of the ozone hole or that water vapor is a greenhouse gas. Moreover, there is a clear indication of knowledge overconfidence: the respondents' confidence levels in their own answers are higher than the accuracy of the answers. This amount of ‘miscalibration’ between confidence and accuracy increased as the difficulty of the question increased. Significant differences in the results can be found regarding sociodemographic aspects. In order to be effective, transformative policies need to take into account the potential confounding effects that knowledge overconfidence and misconceptions may have on the reception of these policies by the general public.
Purpose
Studies on consumer knowledge calibration have used different measures of calibration. The purpose of this paper is to undertake a comparative assessment of important measures. In addition, it seeks to identify the best performing measure.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper reports on three studies. The first study uses eight survey data sets. The second and third studies use experiments.
Findings
The study found that the Brier score component measure is most responsive to feedback and is the most suitable measure of knowledge calibration. The results also indicate that researchers should use measures that use item-level confidence judgements, as against an overall confidence judgement.
Research limitations/implications
By documenting the relationship between the different measures of knowledge calibration, the study enables proper interpretation and accumulation of results of various studies that have used different measures. The study also provides guidance to researchers in psychology and education where this issue has been noted.
Practical implications
The study provides guidance to managers in knowledge intensive industries, such as finance and insurance, interested in understanding their consumers’ knowledge calibration.
Originality/value
This is the first study in consumer research that examines this issue.
The performance of three formats in three choice sets was studied. In choice sets with negatively correlated attributes, the computer-assisted LINEAR format led to superior decisions in comparison with a computer-assisted CUTOFF format and a simple RAN DOM-order format. Decision quality, however, was high and the same across the formats in a choice set with non-negatively correlated attributes. The LINEAR format was highly regarded by subjects, resulted in timely decisions, and is recommended on the basis of its performance in the study.
Food literacy – i.e. the ability to collect, understand, process and use relevant information to navigate the food system– is a key concept inspiring food policies across the World. While scholars agree in discussing the interplay between individual food literacy skills and the health, social, environmental, political, cultural and economic aspects of food consumption, evidence on the extent and consequences of limited food literacy is scattered. This paper tries to shed light on this issue, assessing the food literacy skills of a representative sample of the Italian population. The research findings suggest that problematic food literacy is prevailing: elderly, people with low education and those suffering from financial deprivation are more likely to show inadequate food literacy. Limited food literacy concurs in producing impaired health status. Integrated policy interventions are needed to improve individual food literacy and to support the establishment of a just and sustainable food system.
Although considerable research exists on consumer processing of nutrition labeling and package claims, less is known about consumer interpretation of nutrient content claims in advertising. This is important because product advertising often provides a significant first step for consumers in learning new nutrition information. Yet, unlike package claims, Nutrition Facts Panels are often not available for consumers during the processing of such advertising claims. Therefore, the authors examine the following research questions: (1) Do consumers misinterpret (i.e., overgeneralize) common nutrient content claims in advertising? If so, under what conditions does this occur? and (2) Can various types of disclosure statements remedy this problem? To address these questions, the authors interview a total of 365 primary food shoppers in three geographically dispersed malls in the United States in a between-subjects experiment. Misleading generalizations, beyond those of control ad claims, are found for general and specific nutrient content claims. Ad disclosure type, ad claim type, and nutrition knowledge all separately influence nutrient content and disease risk measures. Evaluative disclosures reduce misleading generalizations to a greater extent than do absolute or relative disclosures. The authors offer implications for public policy and food marketers.
The response bias hypothesis specifies that the predictive capacity of a predictor should be enhanced by controlling for the effects of bias on the predictor variable, in particular, socially desirable responding (SDR) bias. To-date, the vast majority of the SDR research in the area, which is principally personality related, has failed to support the response bias hypothesis, as SDR suppressor effects have not been observed. Consequently, it has been contended that SDR is not a problem for self-report measurement, that SDR measures may themselves be indicators of trait variance, and that it was likely impossible to determine whether an elevated SDR score reflected a trait or response bias. However, in contrast to personality, intelligence is an area within which comparisons between subjective scores (self-reported) and objective scores (task-based) can be made. Consequently, the purpose of this investigation was to test the response bias hypothesis (N = 253) with self-report measures of intellectual and emotional intelligence (SRIQ and SREI) and task-based measures of intellectual and emotional intelligence (TBIQ and TBEI), in conjunction with a multi-dimensional measure of SDR (Balanced Inventory of Desirable Responding; BIDR). The percentage of variance accounted for in TBIQ by SRIQ, and in TBEI by SREI, increased by 1% and 2.1%, respectively, when SDR was included in the model. The 1% to 2.1% increases in criterion (concurrent) validity were interpreted as practically significant, based on previously published simulation work. Finally, it was concluded that self-report measures may be non-negligibly influenced by individual differences in SDR, and that the BIDR may possess some validity as an indicator of individual differences in socially desirable responding.
Several theories of cognition distinguish between strategies that differ in the mental effort that their use requires. But how can the effort—or cognitive costs—associated with a strategy be conceptualized and measured? We propose an approach that decomposes the effort a strategy requires into the time costs associated with the demands for using specific cognitive resources. We refer to this approach as resource demand decomposition analysis (RDDA) and instantiate it in the cognitive architecture Adaptive Control of Thought–Rational (ACT-R). ACT-R provides the means to develop computer simulations of the strategies. These simulations take into account how strategies interact with quantitative implementations of cognitive resources and incorporate the possibility of parallel processing. Using this approach, we quantified, decomposed, and compared the time costs of two prominent strategies for decision making, take-the-best and tallying. Because take-the-best often ignores information and foregoes information integration, it has been considered simpler than strategies like tallying. However, in both ACT-R simulations and an empirical study we found that under increasing cognitive demands the response times (i.e., time costs) of take-the-best sometimes exceeded those of tallying. The RDDA suggested that this pattern is driven by greater requirements for working memory updates, memory retrievals, and the coordination of mental actions when using take-the-best compared to tallying. The results illustrate that assessing the relative simplicity of strategies requires consideration of the overall cognitive system in which the strategies are embedded.
The present study investigated the stability of fluid self-estimated intelligence (SEI) directly, one, and two weeks after the administration of an IQ test in N = 238 German high school students (tested group, TG) in comparison to N = 316 untested high school students (control group, CG). Multigroup latent change analysis indicated that, in comparison to the CG, the TG had a significant latent decrease in SEI from before to after having taken an IQ test (d = 0.36), and again a significant latent increase in SEI one week later (d = 0.28). There was no significant difference in the change from the first and the second week after the IQ test. Results further showed that more accurate SEI was obtained only directly after IQ test participation, but not one or two weeks later, possibly due to self-serving processes. Additionally, we found that extraverted persons displayed a substantially lower decrease in SEI from pre-to posttest, and their SEI rebound effect between posttest and follow-up was significantly smaller.
High rates of overweight, obesity and chronic disease are partly attributable to an increased prevalence of poor dietary choices, which are in part due to the modern environment being conducive to the development of habitual unhealthy food and beverage choices. Nudging aims to influence habitual behaviors by altering the presentation of options to consumers. This systematic literature review investigated nudging interventions, as attributed by the original authors, and their effectiveness for influencing healthier choices. Eight bibliographic databases from the disciplines of psychology, business and health were searched. Included studies were available in the English language and as full-text peer reviewed publication. Studies used nudging or choice architecture interventions that influenced adult food and beverage choices. The number of papers reporting nudging interventions (as attributed by the authors) was low, with only thirteen articles included in the review (comprising 26 primary studies). All studies fall into ‘salience’ and ‘priming’ – type nudging interventions, which were tested across different adult populations and settings – including laboratories, canteens, cafeterias and restaurants. According to the NHMRC levels of evidence only two interventions were of a high level of evidence, and the majority of articles received average or poor quality ratings, as per the Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines. Combined ‘salience’ and ‘priming’ nudges showed consistent positive influence on healthier food and beverage choices. This review had limited ability to determine effectiveness of nudging due to various populations and settings tested and the use and reporting of incomparable outcome measures. This is the first review to synthesize nudging interventions, finding minimal uptake of nudging in the academic literature, and mixed effectiveness of nudging for influencing healthier food and beverage choices. This review is registered with PROSPERO - CRD42013005056.
When two or more univariate population means are compared, the proportion of variation in the dependent variable accounted for by population group membership is eta-squared. This effect size can be generalized by using multivariate measures of association, based on the multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) statistics, to establish whether population mean vectors are practically significant different. In the case of random samples from populations, approximate and asymptotically unbiased estimators of these effect sizes as well as confidence intervals are suggested under the assumptions of equal covariance matrices and normality. Statistical properties of these estimators are studied by Monte Carlo simulations. The accuracy and spread of the proposed effect sizes are also compared with those of other multivariate measures of association in Monte Carlo simulations. The proposed effect sizes are also illustrated by applying them in an empirical example using college admission test data obtained from StatSoft (2007)18.
StatSoft , Inc . 2007. STATISTICA (data analysis software system), Version 8.0 www.statsoft.com View all references.
Contrary to the general view that decision difficulty is a stable characteristic of specific choice sets, the authors propose that decision difficulty depends on how the choice set is mentally represented. Comparing the difficulty associated with comparable and noncomparable choice sets, the authors find that changes in mental representation can make the same choice feel more or less difficult. They propose that the representation level influences the type of decision criterion that becomes readily available; whether this available criterion is appropriate for comparing the options in turn affects choice difficulty. Four studies demonstrate the proposed effect of representation level on the difficulty of comparable and noncomparable choices and its downstream implications for decision satisfaction.
The purpose of the present study was to examine whether the Big Five personality factors could predict who thrives or chokes under pressure during decision-making. The effects of the Big Five personality factors on decision-making ability and performance under social (Experiment 1) and combined social and time pressure (Experiment 2) were examined using the Big Five Personality Inventory and a dynamic decision-making task that required participants to learn an optimal strategy. In Experiment 1, a hierarchical multiple regression analysis showed an interaction between neuroticism and pressure condition. Neuroticism negatively predicted performance under social pressure, but did not affect decision-making under low pressure. Additionally, the negative effect of neuroticism under pressure was replicated using a combined social and time pressure manipulation in Experiment 2. These results support distraction theory whereby pressure taxes highly neurotic individuals’ cognitive resources, leading to sub-optimal performance. Agreeableness also negatively predicted performance in both experiments.
Prior research suggests that knowledge calibration (KC) supports consumers’ maintenance of a healthy diet. However, no previous studies have considered that learned helpless consumers may refrain from using their knowledge, even though they may be fully aware that they possess it. This research gap is considered in three studies. Study 1 investigates the moderating effect of learned helplessness (LH) by means of a cross‐sectional survey. Studies 2 and 3 are online choice studies. Besides from replicating Study 1, Studies 2 and 3 eliminate potential social desirability bias by objectively measuring respondents’ dietary choice quality. In addition, Study 3 takes into account the possibility that respondents’ responses may be biased by food preferences, medical conditions, and/or food allergies. Moreover, Studies 2 and 3 both investigate the consequences of the findings on consumers who live under a dieting regime. These studies demonstrate that consumers suffering from LH do not stand to gain from calibrating their dietary knowledge to the same degree as other consumers. It is also shown that dieting behavior has a tendency to weaken this negative moderating effect of LH on the relationship between KC and dietary choice quality. Finally, the implications of the findings for marketers and public policymakers are discussed.
We investigated the relationship between the ability to comprehend text and the ability to predict future performance and to assess past performance on text. Subjects were poor at predicting performance, which may be why prediction accuracy did not relate to measures of comprehension ability. Measures of comprehension ability did relate to the accuracy with which subjects assessed their performance on tests. Better and faster comprehenders judged their relative levels of test performance over sections of text more accurately than did poorer and slower comprehenders.
This research investigates whether low-literate consumers process written advertisements differently than high-literate consumers do. Consistent with resource-matching theory (RMT), the first experiment reveals that, unlike high-literate processors, when low-literate processors read ads of moderate complexity, involvement with the ad does not affect processing. The second experiment extends RMT's applicability to both low- and high-literate consumers by demonstrating that low-literate processors' reading outcomes mirror those of high-literate processors when ads are written to reflect their reading capability.
A consistent finding in laboratory research is that individuals are quite adept at dismissing and disavowing unfavorable feedback. Three studies extend this research to a nonlaboratory setting by examining how students who receive relatively low scores on the Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT) respond to this "failure" feedback. Studies 1 and 2 revealed biases in both perceptions and presentations of test scores. Students with lower SAT scores regarded their score as invalid and also believed that a higher score would be more accurate. This was true even though actual SAT scores significantly predicted current college grade-point average (GPA), whereas the scores subjects estimated would be accurate did not. In addition, when reporting their SAT scores, students systematically inflated them, reporting scores higher than those they actually received. Study 3 suggests that the misreporting of SAT scores is attributable partly, but not entirely, to impression management.
Examines measurement of activity level (AL) in 2 studies. In Exp 1, 49 4.2–6.5 yr olds, previously observed between 15 and 30 mo of age, were assessed to describe stability in AL over time, proximal influences on play AL, and parents' views of child temperament (TM). Measurement at follow-up consisted of direct observation (OB) and 2 parent reports. In Exp 2, TM, AL during large motor play, and problem behaviors (PBs) were assessed using rating and OB measures, including the Fagot Interactive Code. 101 and 83 Ss were studied from 18 to 30 and from 12 to 24 mo of age, respectively. The 2 studies indicate that (1) boys and girls have similar ALs for both rating and OB measures, (2) parents rate active boys more negatively than active girls in terms of TM and PBs, and (3) both the agent and method of assessment affect the measurement of AL, with AL remaining stable only when measured by the same method in the same situation. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)
examine evidence relevant to the judgment process under varying conditions of resource availability and resource requirements / perspective is that of the communication strategist whose objective is to enhance the persuasive impact of a message / consider research that offers some insight about the types of strategies likely to enhance message influence when the resources available for message processing are exceeded by the requirements of the communication task
assess ways of enhancing persuasion when there is a surplus of resources given the demands of the processing task
followed by a more mechanistic analysis of human resource allocation and its strategic implications as suggested in recent research pertaining to hemispheric lateralization
summarize the theoretical and practical implications emerging from our analysis (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)
Assessed the relationship between metamemory accuracy and student test performance among 67 university students. Metamemory accuracy was assessed by Ss' confidence in answers to multiple choice items and its relation to performance. Ss with a high mean confidence in their answers had higher exam scores than Ss who expressed a low mean confidence in their answers. Compared with poor students, good students were better able to predict their test item performance, implying that they have better metamemory accuracy on multiple choice exams. Results also suggest that, when given the option of replacing a subset of test items with option items, students can improve their test scores or class standing. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)
Consumers sometimes act like creatures of habit, automatically repeating past behavior with little regard to current goals and valued outcomes. To explain this phenomenon, we show that habits are a specific form of automaticity in which responses are directly cued by the contexts (e.g., locations, preceding actions) that consistently covaried with past performance. Habits are prepotent responses that are quick to activate in memory over alternatives and that have a slow-to-modify memory trace. In daily life, the tendency to act on habits is compounded by everyday demands, including time pressures, distraction, and self-control depletion. However, habits are not immune to deliberative processes. Habits are learned largely as people pursue goals in daily life, and habits are broken through the strategic deployment of effortful self-control. Also, habits influence the post hoc inferences that people make about their behavior.
This article examines the role of behavioral routines in decision making. In order to induce routines, participants were confronted with recurrent route decisions in a computer-controlled trucking game, which allows for manipulation of routine acquisition and strength. During the final round of the game, time pressure and novelty in task presentation were varied as between-factors. It was hypothesized that time pressure would increase the likelihood of routine maintenance and novelty would increase the likelihood of deviation. Besides individual choices, response latencies and self-reports were additionally assessed to measure the amount of deliberation during decision making. Results show that time pressure strongly increased the probability of routine maintenance, even though the situation indicated the inadequacy of the routine. In contrast, novelty in task presentation provoked routine deviation and increased deliberation, as evident from response latencies and self-reports. Copyright © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
The current research examines the effects of time pressure on decision behavior based on a prospect theory framework. In Experiments 1 and 2, participants estimated certainty equivalents for binary gains-only bets in the presence or absence of time pressure. In Experiment 3, participants assessed comparable bets that were framed as losses. Data were modeled to establish psychological mechanisms underlying decision behavior. In Experiments 1 and 2, time pressure led to increased risk attractiveness, but no significant differences emerged in either probability discriminability or outcome utility. In Experiment 3, time pressure reduced probability discriminability, which was coupled with severe risk-seeking behavior for both conditions in the domain of losses. No significant effects of control over outcomes were observed. Results provide qualified support for theories that suggest increased risk-seeking for gains under time pressure.
This study examined the influence of cohesiveness, an organizational cultural variable, on knowledge use and organizational
learning within the context of new product development (NPD). The authors surveyed NPD managers from 323 firms, representing
a wide range of product classifications, about their firms’ levels of cohesiveness and NPD efforts. Using structural equation
modeling, the authors demonstrated that organizational cohesiveness has a moderating influence on both an organization’s use
of its existing knowledge to develop innovative new products and the resulting performance of those products, which emphasizes
how influential organizational “mind-set” can be. By considering cohesiveness an influence in new product innovativeness and
new product performance, the authors incorporated a cultural variable that has received little attention in the NPD and more
general marketing literature. This research reveals that much is left to learn about cohesiveness and that understanding it
can advance knowledge use, organizational learning, and innovation.
Two experiments assess the type and amount of conflict influencing decision difficulty in hypothetical scenarios where subjects chose between two alternatives made to appear relatively attractive (approach–approach conflicts) or relatively unattractive (avoidance-avoidance conflicts), each involving attribute trade-offs across alternatives (embedded approach–avoidance conflicts). In Experiment 1, independent of information processing demands, decisions are more difficult when alternatives are unattractive and/or attribute trade-offs are large. Reference states that change the relative attractiveness of the alternatives increase or decrease decision difficulty in a manner consistent with loss aversion: Superior reference states increase decision difficulty more than inferior reference states reduce it. Experiment 2 further tests the reference dependence of decision difficulty by varying the nature of the reference state (stated comparators, as in Experiment 1, or endowments) as well as its extremity. Endowed reference states affect decision difficulty more than reference states that are stated comparators. Moreover, consistent with loss aversion, inferior reference states that are twice as extreme as superior reference states reduce decision difficulty about as much as the superior reference states increase it. The results demonstrate that decisions can be made easier or harder by way of reference dependence, and that the loss aversion so prevalent in preference formation generalizes to perceptions of decision difficulty in multiattribute settings.
Online trust is one of the main determinants of the success of e-retailers and much research has dealt with website features triggering consumer trust to them. Another stream of research focuses on the psychological antecedents to online trust; i.e., what “happens” in the consumer’s mind before or while a person decides to trust an e-retailer? So far, each effort has focused on only a few selected aspects of this trust formation process. No study has attempted to identify major psychological antecedents of trust. Our work identified the relative importance of the antecedents of institution-based trust in e-retailing; i.e., trust people have in it in general. A review of the literature reveals a large number of potential psychological antecedents. These can be categorized into five group of factors: personality-based, perception-based, attitude-based, experience-based, and knowledge-based. The five categories are hypothesized to influence institution-based consumer trust in e-retailing. According to our results, perception based factors are the main determinants of consumer trust in e-retailing. Consumers do behave, after all, rationally.
Calibration of consumer knowledge of the web refers to the correspondence between accuracy and confidence in knowledge of the web. Being well-calibrated means that a person is realistic in his or her assessment of the level of knowledge that he or she possesses. This study finds that involvement leads to better calibration and that calibration is higher for procedural knowledge and common knowledge, as compared to declarative knowledge and specialized knowledge. Neither usage, nor experience, has any effect on calibration of knowledge of the web. No difference in calibration is observed between genders. But, in agreement with previous findings, this study also finds that males are more confident in their knowledge of the web. The results point out that calibration could be more a function of knowledge-specific factors and less that of individual-specific factors. The study also identifies flow and frustration with the web as consequences of calibration of knowledge of the web and draws the attention of future researchers to examine these aspects.
An examination of the influence of routine behaviour on people's feelings of safety, confidence, and well-being shows, as hypothesized, that these positive emotions increase with routine behaviour. Five studies were conducted on flights, in different neighbourhoods of the city, in the laboratory performing a routine or a non-routine task, and in seating behaviour in university classrooms. In all studies, participants reported more feelings of safety, confidence, and well-being in routine situations. Thus, routine enhances feelings of safety, confidence, and well-being in many aspects of everyday life.
To provide a neurobiological basis for understanding decision-making and decision confidence, we describe and analyze a neuronal spiking attractor-based model of decision-making that makes predictions about synaptic and neuronal activity, the fMRI BOLD response, and behavioral choice as a function of the easiness of the decision, and thus decision confidence. The spiking network model predicts probabilistic decision-making with faster and larger neuronal responses on easy versus difficult choices, that is as the discriminability DeltaI between the choices increases, and these and the synaptic currents in turn predict larger BOLD responses as the discriminability increases. Confidence, which increases with discriminability, thus emerges from the firing rates of the decision-making neurons in the choice attractor network. In two fMRI studies, we confirm these predictions by showing that brain areas such as medial prefrontal cortex area 10 implicated in choice decision-making between pleasant stimuli have BOLD activations linearly related to the easiness of both olfactory and warm pleasantness choices. Further, this signature is not found in orbitofrontal cortex areas that represent on a continuous scale the value of the stimuli, but are not implicated in the choice itself. This provides a unifying and fundamental approach to decision-making and decision confidence, and to how spiking-related noise in the brain affects choice, confidence, synaptic and neuronal activity, and fMRI signals.
Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Texas at Austin, 1993. Vita. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 140-142).