Anthropocene Bearing on Snow-Avalanche Disasters over the West Indian Himalayas: An Appraisal

Abstract

The Himalayas is massive mountainous hills of altitude about 2000m to 6500m garlanding India in the north extending about 2500km arc-shaped snowy glaciers covering parts of Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Nepal, China, and Bhutan at various heights in sub-tropics. Snow avalanches in winter with floods and landslides cause maximum fatalities with increasing vulnerability in West Indian Himalayas (WIH) dropping temperature to ≈ -60°C. The ignored calamity has encountered unplanned relief to inaccessible areas that warrant a disaster risk reduction (DRR) approach with modern structural interventions under downsizing glacier due to Anthropocene stresses. The present study envisions the various avalanche occurrences in the three most pretentious states Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand, in WIH. Correlation between geological vs meteorological responsibilities such as temperature, earthquake, snowfalls, and Indian summer monsoon with avalanche sorted out and causes depicted. Present investigation is about vulnerability, risk, track, impact, forecasting procedures, early warning system (EWS), disaster risk reduction processes, moderating strategies and other factors. The inferred results are the cause of avalanche formation, the decline in the glacier area, the increase in frequency, and intensity, and the disaster risk reduction processes including the disaster management action plan (DMAP). The vulnerability area designation, awareness among people, disaster mitigation by public private partnership (PPP) mode, as combined effort on war footing basis by the line departments.

Full text

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*Corresponding author: E-mail: 2sibamishra@gmail.com;
International Journal of Environment and Climate Change
12(10): 74-92, 2022; Article no.IJECC.86672
ISSN: 2581-8627
(Past name: British Journal of Environment & Climate Change, Past ISSN: 2231–4784)
Anthropocene Bearing on Snow-Avalanche
Disasters over the West Indian Himalayas: An
Appraisal
Siba Prasad Mishra a* and Arnada Samal a
a Centurion University of Technology and Management, Jatni, Bhubaneswar, India.
Authors’ contributions
This work was carried out in collaboration between both authors. Both authors read and approved the
final manuscript.
Article Information
DOI: 10.9734/IJECC/2022/v12i1030772
Open Peer Review History:
This journal follows the Advanced Open Peer Review policy. Identity of the Reviewers, Editor(s) and additional Reviewers,
peer review comments, different versions of the manuscript, comments of the editors, etc are available here:
https://www.sdiarticle5.com/review-history/86672
Received 14 February 2022
Accepted 27 April 2022
Published 28 April 2022
ABSTRACT
The Himalayas is massive mountainous hills of altitude about 2000m to 6500m garlanding India in
the north extending about 2500km arc-shaped snowy glaciers covering parts of Afghanistan,
Pakistan, India, Nepal, China, and Bhutan at various heights in sub-tropics. Snow avalanches in
winter with floods and landslides cause maximum fatalities with increasing vulnerability in West
Indian Himalayas (WIH) dropping temperature to ≈ -60°C. The ignored calamity has encountered
unplanned relief to inaccessible areas that warrant a disaster risk reduction (DRR) approach with
modern structural interventions under downsizing glacier due to Anthropocene stresses.
The present study envisions the various avalanche occurrences in the three most pretentious
states Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand, in WIH. Correlation between
geological vs meteorological responsibilities such as temperature, earthquake, snowfalls, and
Indian summer monsoon with avalanche sorted out and causes depicted. Present investigation is
about vulnerability, risk, track, impact, forecasting procedures, early warning system (EWS),
disaster risk reduction processes, moderating strategies and other factors.
The inferred results are the cause of avalanche formation, the decline in the glacier area, the
increase in frequency, and intensity, and the disaster risk reduction processes including the
disaster management action plan (DMAP). The vulnerability area designation, awareness among
people, disaster mitigation by public private partnership (PPP) mode, as combined effort on war
footing basis by the line departments.
Review Article

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75
Keywords: Disaster risk reduction; early warning system; snow avalanche; SASE and BRO; western
disturbances; West Indian Himalaya.
1. INTRODUCTION
The avalanche is fast sliding snow-mass
movement on the mountain slopes conjoint to icy
steep regions when the downslope of steep
mountainous terrain drives huge detached snow,
ice, and allied debris like rocks and vegetation of
mountains. They can be rock initiated, ice
instigated or debris triggered. These trivial
avalanches/sluffs, which transpire in outsized
numbers, are common and unimportant in the
Himalayas. The huge avalanches at times
encompass large slopes (a kilometer or more in
length) with the huge mass of snow, which occur
intermittently and are apocalyptic. Humans since
evolution exposed to the threat of these sliding
Snowmass as homosapiens reside in high
altitudes of mountainous regions. The impact of
these avalanche disasters has regular exposure
to the western Himalayas and the trans-
Himalayan range. Recently, heavy snowfall of
up to 2m befell at many places on the high
altitudes of the Pir-Panjal range between 16-20
February 2005, 300 people lost their lives
resulting in avalanches in Anantnag, Doda,
Poonch, Pulwama, Udhampur and Kinnaur
(Nepal) districts of J&K. The U’Khand flash flood
pointed towards the weakening of rock mass due
to freezing. Over. Recently on 22 Feb 2022,
seven Indian soldiers were dead in the Kameng
sector of Arunachal Pradesh India.
The Himalayas is massive mountainous hills of
altitude (≈2km to ≈6.5km) garlanding India in the
north extending about 2500km (Fig. 1). They are
arc-shaped snowy glaciers covering parts of
Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Nepal, China, and
Bhutan at various heights in sub-tropics. The
blocking highways including pedestrian and
village roads.
Fig. 1. The Western Himalayas with Avalanche prone areas (Source Modified Gusain et al. [1])

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Pir-Panjal Ranges are under disruption of
communication due to avalanches on the
national and state highways between Jammu to
Srinagar (NH-44), Naugam to Kaiyan, Chowkibal
to Tangdharand, and many other roads. The
climate in the Himalayas altitude based and
roads./NH existing are Srinagar to Leh and
Bandipur to Gurez, India’s border line, road to
different passes are frequently visited by
Avlanches. Elevation wise western Himalayas
are the Lower Himalayas (2km to 3,000m), with
heavy rainfall and reasonable temperatures, the
Greater Himalayas (3 to 4 km) are cooler with
snowfall but dry. The Karakoram Range (4 km to
6 km), houses the K2 peak (global 2nd highest)
and the Siachen glacier (the border of India,
China, & Pakistan). The increased military
activities in border areas, the establishment of
army camps, and frequent plying of service
military vehicles have surged the avalanche
activities in Himalayan areas. The Amarnath
shrine area needs to be solitary and no chanting
of mantras demands to observe a silent zone
under a pristine biome.
Indian western Himalayas (WIH) comprises of
Siwalic (350 to 1500m), Lower (Inner Himalayas
1500-4500), greater Himalayas and Karakoram
range called Tibetan Plateau or Alpine zone
(even the third pole in the globe) as per Govt of
HP (Disaster Mngt. cell – 2019) (Fig. 1). The
area houses the largest numbers of glaciers
beyond the apex poles i.e. North or south poles.
Canova’s [2] study on avalanche and 150years
tree ring transformations in western Himalayan
slopes reveals about 500 tree ring anomalies and
38years of avalanche disasters in the area from
1855 to 1970 whereas there are significant
upsurges in both numbers of disasters and
affected areas beyond the 1970s, (Fig. 2) (Gullet
2018 [3]). Recent avalanches, EQs, and floods
arising out of snow melts in glaciers have posed
problems to Indian soldiers along the LOCs and
border check posts and have taken more than
1000lives since 1986. Many passes are closed
during winter for snow/avalanche activities as per
Govt of HP, (Table 1).
Few recent avalanche disasters passed through
the Indian Himalayas given in Table -1 narrate
how frequently such hazards made the life of
mountain people in high altitudes miserable. J &
K faced avalanche deaths of ≈350 in 2005 and
2012 and about 125 fatalities. Siachen, the
world’s 2nd largest retreating glacier beyond the
poles, is 73, 541.7, and 108.3km respectively,
downsizing by 5m/yr (Raina et al., 2008 [4]).
From the distribution of available data, the
inference is maximum avalanche occurrences
during the first quarter months of the year, where
the maximum frequency of the disaster is
optimum in the month of March (Table 1),
Podolsky et al, 2009 [12].
Fig. 2. The avalanche risk areas WIH (Source: Mongabay, 4 May 2018, NDTV 18 Nov 2020)

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Table 1. List of recent Avalanche hazards exposed to Indian Himalayas with fatalities and losses
#
Avalanche
State
date
Deaths
Losses
Source
1
Rishiganga/Dhauli- Ganga
hydel Pr.
U’-khand
9-13th Feb 2022
nil
Scar in snow; flash flood
Kalachand, Sain, WIHG
2
West Kameng;
Arunachal Pr.
6-8th Feb 2022
7dead
Army guards
WIHG
3
Chamoli
U’Khand
7th Feb 2021
200dead /missing
27mcum snow ( Ronti peak)
https://www.indiat
vnews.com/710943
4
Dhauliganga valley
Chamoli, U’Khond
23 April 2021
11 died
Indo Tibet border
Sharma et al, [5]
5
Rishi Ganga valley
Chamoli, U’Khond
7th Feb. 2021
20 dead/ >150 miss.
debris flow induced STDS
Sharma et al, [5]; TOI 12th
6
Solang Village, Gurez
J&K
15th Feb 2020
18 killed & 200
missing
broke dams/ bridges,
Economic Times15 Feb
2020, 06.04 PM
7
Roshan Post in Tangdhar
Kupwara dist.J & K
18 Nov 2020
01dead/2injured
Security post affected
NDTV 18th Nov.
8
Tangdhar; Gurez; Kup -wara
J&K;
4th Dec 2019
03 dead
Near LOC in North Kashmir
Indian Express December
4, 2019
9
Batalik Sector; Ladakh
J & K valley
13 Jul, 2018
09 dead/ 2 rescued
Soldiers at Machhil post
Economic Times
10
Gulmarg ice festival closed
J &K
18 Feb 2017
20 soldiers
Both side border died
Nair A., Ind. Today (Publn
20 Feb 2017)
11
Kambhu, Srinagar
J&K, HP
Jan-Apr2014
51dead
LOC, Civilians:
Kumar et al., [6]
12
Derahdun
U’Khand;
3 Feb 2013
2dead
Civilians; WD
Kumar et al. [6]
13
Siachen ;Deradun
UKhand;
16 Dec 2012
20 dead
LOC; soldiers
14
(Lahul &Spiti)
J&K
Mar 2011
2dead
Heavy snowfall
15
Gulmarg
J&K
8th Feb 2010
17dead
Border soldiers
Economic times 8th
16
Pir-Panjal Range WD effect
J&K
16-20 Feb:2005
278(24 soldiers)
4.5m snow fall Gulmarg
Mallik et al. [7]
17
Gulmarg
J&K
Feb:1996
4.5m snowfall
Unit-14 Avalanches: Case
Studies; eGyankosh
18
Uri Sector; Monang post.
J&K
23rd -28th Mar1997
7dead
- 7.0°C Temp. Slab avalanche
19
Mahu Mangit, Banihal
J&K
25th Feb 1998
11dead
3m depth snow pack fractured
20
Lahaul and Spiti
J&K
March 1991
snow fall Jan-Mar
Transport ceased
Kumar et al., [6]
21
Lahaul &Spiti
Hima.Pr.
Jan 1975
NA
EQ; loss roads
22
Lahul and Spiti
Hima. Pr.
March, 1978
30 dead
Road/property damaged.
Avlanche atlas [8]
23
Lahul and Spiti
Hima. Pr.
March, 1979
237 dead
Road disrupted.
24
Pir Panjal ; Rajouri
J& K and Him. Pr.
Dec 1982
≈126 dead
Avalanche and under snow
IMD disaster event [9]
Hima. Pr.: Himachal Pradesh U’ Khond: Uttarakhond; EQ: Earth quake; WD- western Disturbance; WIHG: Wadia Inst. of Himal. Geology
Source:www.yourarticlelibrary.com/geography/avalanches-damages-preventive-measures-and-avalanche-prone-areas-in-india/14070;
egyankosh.ac.in/bitstream/123456789/25175/1/Unit-14; Govt of HP (Disaster management 2019 [10] and 2015 [11])

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2. REVIEW OF LITERATURE
Avalanches, regular hazards in snowy
mountains, victimize people and property
accompanying the present climate change (CC),
anthropogenic intensity, frequency, and types are
changing, distressing more and more of
avalanche committal and trauma, Strapazzon et
al. [17]. The present warm climate over the
Indian Himalayas is welcoming avalanche
disasters for the last decade, Ballesteros-
Cánovas et al., [2], Giacona et al., [18].
The buried victim’s survival is 50% due to
asphyxia if extricated for more than half an hour
due to ice accretion in the nostrils and mouth
cavity or otherwise from accumulated debris-
covered over the prey, [19,20,21]. Risk of
Hypothermia is common as the repercussion of
most natural disasters like floods, earthquakes,
Tsunamis even in avalanche risk chain and
casualties areas, Wang et al., [22], Zafren et al.,
[23], Strapazzon et al. [21], Oshiro et al., [24].
Western Himalayas in India is in exposure to
frequent landslides and increasing snow
avalanches due to earthquakes, warming up, and
heightened snow melting prompts light-absorbing
impurities (LAIs) like dirt, debris, dust, and
elemental carbon (EC). The flow from tributaries
contributes to fluvial influx through the rivers the
Ganges, Brahmaputra, Indus, and the Yangtze,
like snow in mountainous areas of Canada, and
Switzerland, Jain N., [25], Sinickas et al., [26],
Singh et al., [27], Thind et al., [28]. The risk
analysis for future challenges, along with
development, geomorphology, and LU/LC (land
use and land cover) scheduling is essential
because of increased avalanche, and landslide
occurrences by using GIS and RS Singh et al.
[29]. The West Himalayas have had increasing
winter rain, average temperature, and avalanche
risks since 1970 with augmented anthropogenic
activities, Statham et al., [20]; Puzin et al., [30].
Stimulating landscape features, current orogeny,
and meteorological settings are substantial
aspects claimed against mass movements
initiating avalanche disaster, Alean et al., [31];
Mandal J. [32], Meena et al., [33], Mondal [34].
In avalanches, the gravity slips of mass (rock,
ice, soil, debris, and water), ground for
remarkable indemnities in high snow-covered
mountainous hills globally. The dynamics and the
movement of mass under actions of gravity are
differing by rolling, falling, sliding, and flowing, Li,
et al. [35]. At times, the avalanche is triggered by
eruption, flood, lahar, earthquake, or rockfall or
combined, Waitt et al., [36], Podolskiy et al., [12],
Sanders et al. [37], Ha et al. [38] and [39].
Density of vegetation, forest, global warming,
western disturbances (WD), snow fall and human
activity have surged the snow avalanche
activities in West Indian Himalayas, Chaudhary
et al., [40], Canovas et al. [2], Wester et al. [41],
Strapazzon et al. [17], Yang et al. [42], Kanwar
et al. [43].
2.1 The Necessity for Study
The avalanche hazard has become increasingly
vulnerable to the people, flora, fauna, and
ecology of the western Himalayas in India. Apart
from natural calamities like temperature rise, the
upsurge of carbon dioxide has transformed the
past climate. Most strikingly, the surge in
anthropogenic activities like vehicular traffic, road
construction, agriculture, tourism, military
activities, deforestation, and human settlements
are increasing the risk and vulnerability of the
avalanche in the Indian Himalayas. The climate
warming in the Himalayas and continuous
melting of snow and ice in the peaks and glaciers
may bring alarming modification in the scale,
extent, and annual rate of incidence of
avalanches that shall shift ITCZ, and alter the
mountain landscapes and associated
socioeconomic systems of the area. The decadal
dry periods prevailed in India ranged from 1961
to 70, 1971 to 80, and 1981 to 90, [44].
It is high time to have a scientific investigation of
the snow-avalanche Hazard and to impart well-
coordinated action with improved risk
management. The players, who monitor the
threats and impacts, are explored from various
source publications. The favoring organizations
are India Meteorological Department (IMD),
Snow & Avalanche Study Establishment (SASE),
and available literature on print and TV Media
discussed.
3. METHODOLOGY
There is a huge knowledge gap about statistics
of an avalanche as a disaster in West Indian
Himalayas (WIH). The death, causalities and
other losses are less in ancient literatures in
comparison to floods, droughts, and other natural
disasters. Media is reporting regularly deaths,
missing reports and losses due the avalanches
after 1960 onwards in Siachin and other passes
in settlements, military camps and road blockage
at high altitudes of western Himalayas during

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winter due to snow avalanche. Present review is
an attempt to know the mortalities, trauma,
settlement and other environmental losses
associated with the avalanche disaster from site
visit, print and electronic media.
Correlation between geological vs meteorological
such as temperature, earthquake, snowfalls, and
Indian summer monsoon with avalanche sorted
out and causes depicted. Present investigation is
about vulnerability, risk, track, impact, forecasting
procedures, early warning system (EWS),
disaster risk reduction processes, moderating
strategies and other factors.
3.1 Snow Climate in WIH
The avalanche areas classified as maritime
(Huge snowfall with moderate temperature) or
snow climate (less temperature and mild
snowfall). WIH falls under maritime category. The
altitude, slope, aspect, and ground conditions
induce avalanche in WIH are >3200m, 30° to
45°, SE to SW, forest, boulders, Tall grass and
bushes [45,46].
3.2 Earthquake and Avalanche Co-
incidences
Seismic events cause avalanche events and vice
versa [13]) (Fig. 3). The notable earthquakes that
transpired in WIH are Kangra (1905/ M- 8.0),
Kinnaur (1975/ M- 6.7), Dharmasala (1978/ M-
5.0), and (1986/M-5.7) in Himachal Pradesh, as
per National center for disaster, ND. The
receding rate of the WIH glacier at Barashingri,
HP was 44.3m/year was the highest and the
minimum was 13.3m/years, Podollskiy et al. [12],
NDM book HP, Ch- 14 [14].
3.3 Major Snow Avalanche on Earth
Past avalanche deaths were about 10000 in Italy
1916, 4000in Peru in 1962, 2200 in Peru in 1970,
200deaths in Lahaul Valley avalanche, India
during 1979, and 42deaths in Gokyo avalanche
in Nepal during, 1995 (Wiki data). Afghanistan,
Pakistan, India, and Nepal are the worst
sufferers of snow avalanche impact. Avalanche
calamities have taken 216 lives on 1st Mar 2015
(NDMA data), 124people on 27th Feb 2015, in
Panjsir province, and Salang pass in NE
Afghanistan. Nepal is not free from avalanches
and EQ. on 11 May 2015; the Hindustan times of
Nepal reported of 200people trapped in
Langtang valley (Rasua) in the Kyanjin Gompa
area. The data reveals that the focusing area of
avalanche in the world is Afghanistan, India,
Peru, Japan, and Italy, etc. McIntosh. The
Himalayan arc in India’s north has become prone
to avalanche, Gahalaut [16].
Fig. 3. EQ/avalanche areas in Lower, upper and greater Himalayas, (Pirpanjal, greater
Himalayas, Zanskar, Laddaku Korakaram range) Source modified: Bilham R. [15]

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3.4 Geology of Western Himalayas
Indian Himalaya has, extends for ≈2500 km as a
chain of folded types of mountains garlanding
from east to west (72°96°E long. and 26°N to
37°N lat.). These furrow-type chains of
mountains are datable to the upheaval of the
Himalayas from the Pleistocene epoch
consequent upon the thrusting of the Eurasian
Plate. The Himalaya’s perform as an obstruction
to the glacial katabatic airstreams flowing from
Central Asia but depriving India that maintain the
subcontinent warmer. The high altitude
mountains has unique diversified biological,
frosty, and fluffy biome. The frequency,
amplitude, and intensity of the snow avalanche
are higher in the western than in the northern
Himalayas (Laxton et al., [47]).
The complex geology and the diverse disparities
of geological settings in snowy over-burdens
make it difficult to forecast an avalanche for the
meteorologists, scientists, and forecasters
working on such disasters in the area [29].
The avalanche occurs under conditions of
snowstorm Strong western disturbance when the
overburden surpasses 200kg2 after filling the
terrain irregularities like Rishiganga and
Dhauliganga powerhouse project in the year
2021, (Fig. 4(a) & Fig. 4(b) (Singh et al, 1998;
Podolsky [12]).
3.5 The Anastomosis of Drains
The Indian Himalayas has a huge number of
anastomosed channels conjoined to give large
rivers like the Indus, the Ganges, and the
Brahmaputra. The Indus is flowing in the western
segment whereas the other two have formed the
largest delta in the world, the Ganga-
Brahmaputra delta in the east. However, the
Indus River has a large number of gullies,
drainage channels, Branch Rivers debouching
the Arabian Sea flowing through three states, the
Himachal Pradesh, Jammu, and Kashmir, and
Punjab (Fig. 5(a) and Fig. 5(b).
3.6 Role of Meteorological Players
Western disturbances (WD’s) and the exorbitant
mountainous ranges (seven) play a pivotal role in
deciding the geological factors in the Indian
Himalayan range. The impact of the
meteorological disturbances is Surface
Atmospheric Temperature (SAT), Rainfall,
Snowfall, and associated hazards like cold snow
hazards, high floods, and extensive Avalanche
geophysical incidences. The IMD started to study
the glaciers in 1972 through a geological survey
of India, and the Dept. of Science and
Technology under the Hydro met directorate, to
have study about water balance, climate,
seasonal snow spread, and snowmelt in the
Himalayas [44]. Studies reveal an increase in
CO2 conc, SAT in Indian Himalayas, global
warming, lowering of WD influence in the area,
shifting of ITCZ (Inter-tropical convergence zone
i.e. (average of out-going long-range radiation
OLR) have caused significant transformations in
the geo-hydro-bio atmosphere of the
mountainous expanse. (Dimiri et al., [49], Naresh
Ku et al., [50], Mishra et al. [51], Dimiri et al.,
[52].
Fig. 4 (a). Dhauliganga hydropower project-affected breaking of the glacier at Joshimath Feb.
7, 2021, Mint. Fig 4(b): The Avalanche risqué area in Himachal Pradesh Feb’2019

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Fig. 5(a): The WIH anastomosed river system. Fig. 5(b): The major avalanche areas in
Himalayas (Source: Raina et al. [4], Taru [10])
3.7 Activities of Forecasting Agencies
The worst sufferers of snow avalanches are the
son of the soil, soldiers safeguarding the
motherland, the service providers like pavement,
Dam, transport other outside people in the
expanse. It is pertinent to provide the
stakeholders with expert advice from local line
departments, the Mountain Meteorology Division
(MMD) of the National Weather Forecasting
Centre (NWFC) under IMD, and particularly
SASE under the aegis of DRDO. The AFC
(Avalanche Forecasting Centre) and MMC
(Mountain Met Centre) units have developed
stochastic and soft computing models to predict
avalanches for immediate dissemination in the hit
areas.
SASE developed avalanche prediction practices
using soft computing models, through the GIS
technique, Remote sensing data utilization, and
UAV survey for avalanches in the Himalayas.
They have surveyed, designed novice
techniques, and built avalanche control
structures in the area. Through mitigation
schemes, SASE has developed various types of
control structures in strategically focused areas.
SASE has recommended solutions protecting the
highways, railway lines, ropeway, chutes
(Dhundi), and the protection of transmission
lines, (Nayak R., 2005, updated [53]).
4. CAUSE OF AVALANCHES
There two types of avalanches are either loose
snow avalanches or slab avalanches with further,
sub-classified depending upon snow involvement
(dry, damp, or wet), cover, origination in a
surface layer or total snow cover and fall during
the avalanche hazard. Avalanches prerequisites
steep slope, depth of snow cover with an
intermittent weak layer, and a trigger to initiate
drive like earthquake (Singh et al, [54]). The fall
of snow mass is due to the slightest misbalance
of snow mass causing unstable equilibrium on a
steep slope when the natural angle of repose is
exceeded. Later-generation of high momentum
accelerates with more snow mass and slides the
snow and debris mass onto the ground.
Avalanches of dangerous size, originate on steep
slopes with angles of repose ranging from 30 to
450. Avalanches originate in slopes ranging from
45° to 50° sluffs; common are small avalanches
in some cases. The mud or snow avalanches
can have to trigger externally by Icefall,
earthquake tremors, rock falls, thermal changes,
blizzards, and anthropogenic loud sounds such
as shouts, machine noise, and sonic booms
(Singh et al, [55], Mishra et al., [56]). The change
in ecology, anthropogenic military activities, and
Global warming have triggered avalanches in the
WIH.
5. TYPES OF AVALANCHE
Generally, the dry, loose snow avalanches are
small and few achieve sufficient size to cause
damage. With the onset of melting, the wet loose
snow avalanches are common. They grow more
occasionally, and reach a destructive size,
especially when confined to a gulley. Slab

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avalanches initiate in the snow with ample
internal cohesion to enable a snow layer, or
layers, to react mechanically as a single entity.
They accumulate to generate wind that drifted
very high in the hard slab. A dangerous,
unpredictable, slab avalanche (wet, dry, new, or
old), that fractures freely along a characteristic
line, sliding initiated when the slab face stands
perpendicular to the slope either partly or wholly
along a mountain slope along the fracture as
stress release zone, that is variable. The gross
sub-division is full-length or surficial dry and wet
avalanches (Hao et al., [57], Bodaballa et al.,
[58]). The most damaging slab avalanches
comprised of dry snow typically spawn as a dust
cloud like CB (cumulonimbus) cloud. The whirling
snow slide created from soft slabs was identified
as powder snow avalanches. Snow crystals
mixed with air to form an aerosol, which appears
as sharp confined dense gas falling down the
gradient with the snow-head. The high dense
snow has enormous destructive power though at
lower velocity.
6. THE TRACK OF THE AVALANCHE
Heavy snowfall for a short extent has a greater
chance of avalanche manifestation. Avalanches
reach speeds of up to 200 km/hour and can exert
great forces leaving a track, smashing structures,
and can uproot or snapping off large trees. Tree
rings depict the number of avalanches in the
area exposed. Occasionally, an avalanche can
run way up the slope across the valley from the
avalanche path repeated exposure. Such paths
have a panoramic view and the lands are less
prone to pass many winters, even decades
without a serious avalanche (Such an period is
1940-1950). Avalanches are independent of
specific terrain features. They prefer to
follow narrow gullies or ravines to travel. They
seldom travel in broad, less varying slopes,
even in ridges or spurs. The longitudinal
profiles of the paths may be concave, convex, or
stepped. The Convex slopes are more vulnerable
to avalanche hazards than concave slopes. On
stepped paths, small avalanches will often stop
on a bench some distance down the track while
larger ones will run the full length of the path.
6.1 Avalanche Hazard Mitigation Zoning
In the Indian Himalayas, large numbers of
avalanches have been reported having
avalanche sites extending more than one km and
snow volume of thousands Cum. An avalanche
hierarchy consists of Formation Zone, Middle
Zone, and Runout Zone. Avalanche Hazard
Mitigation using Control Structures and Artificial
Triggering of Avalanches. Various control
structures are categorized based on the
avalanche zone. These control structures are
designed to keep in view the specific nature of
particular avalanche sites (Table 2).
The other way of zoning is Zoning Avalanche
areas are red zone, Blue zone, or yellow zone.
The utmost perilous zone is that where
avalanches are recurrent. Such avalanches have
bearing pressure > 3 MT/ m2. The Blue Zone has
avalanche pressure < 3 MT/ m2 and housing and
livelihood activities are permitted with proper
preventive measures but must be vacated at the
advent of a storm on warning. In the yellow
avalanches zone, the hazard seldom occurs.
7. THE IMPACT OF SNOW AVALANCHES
The avalanches damaged people, flora or fauna,
and even manmade structures if obstruct the
way. Over 1,000 Indian soldiers, including over
35 officers, have lost their lives in the Siachen
Glacier-Saltoro Ridge region since April 1984.
The debris that emerged blocks highways, rail,
and roads of any kind. The huge thrust and fast
velocity of moving snow, debris, and the burial of
the areas in the run-out zone. During summer,
the avalanche-prone areas are less vulnerable
and at least risk but deserted in winter. The land
use (LU) in an avalanche prone area must not
comprise structures intended for wintertime and
early spring occupancy. Structures as well as
power lines, national transportation roads,
railroads, and other LU, within the avalanche
routes and run-out areas. They are to be
appropriately designed against the lateral
swaying impact including all deterrent measures
prescribed by IS code and NDMA guidelines
2009.
Table 2. The Avalanche prone areas zoning and the hazard mitigation measures/structures
#
Avalanche Zone
Hazard Mitigation Measures/ structures
1.
Formation Zone
Snow Bridges, Snow Rakes, Snow Nets, Snow Fence, Jet Roof, Baffle Wall
2
Middle Zone
Deflecting Structures, Snow Galleiy
3.
Runout Zone
Retarding or Diverting Stnictures, Catch Dams

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8. THE AFTERMATH OF THE DISASTER
Since after the myth of the disaster, everything is
under the debris and snow, mostly in remote
places, search and rescue operations are
mandatory to address the emergency. The seven
‘D’ impacts mainly are death, disability, disease,
distress, damage to Health Services, damage to
the Economy, and Damage to the Environment.
The fatalities related are 55-65% (mainly due to
suffocation), but the rest who survived are in
urgent need of medical attendance otherwise
they die from Hypothermia or trauma injuries.
The self or companion risqué become crucial and
locating the victims has become easier by use of
GIS, DGPS, and UAV fixed with sensors and
cameras. The equipment used is Emergency
Position Indicating Radio Beacons (EPIRB) fixed
with a global positioning system. SASE at
present not involved in risqué operation, it is high
time to create public or community awareness
and techniques of rescuing with avalanche
forecasting network on PPP mode. The only
option is the involvement of the community with
expert personnel in public-private partnership
mode to address the problem of search and
rescue services to be in discipline (Das et al.,
[59], Muhammad et al, [60], Shugar et al., [61],
Dematteis et al., [62].
7.1 Impact on Flora and Fauna
Global warming contributes to an upsurge in the
frequency of annual avalanches in the Western
Indian Himalayas (WIH). The dendro-
geomorphology study of tree ring data (150YBP)
and linked it with snowfall data by Ballesteros-
Concova’s team [2], in 2018 to track the
geospatial avalanche effect on the tree trunks.
The WIH houses about 57 million people and
acknowledged as one among the 34 “biological
hotspots” of the globe, which is changing with the
change in climate Tiwari et al. [63]. The inference
was the sparse occurrence of avalanches pre-
Anthropocene and even none from 1940 to 1950.
Then gradually increased from 1970 onwards
and in the 21st century, the hazard frequency is
high and regular Bob Yirka [64].
7.2 EWS for Snow Avalanche Hazards
Early Warning Systems EWS employ two
methods to predict avalanches, like snow cover
structures (fault patterns), particularly for slab
avalanches. The other method uses climatologic
meteorological factors like temperature, wester
disturbance, type, pattern, and quantum of
snowfall, snowstorms, etc. The snowmelt is the
common and prime cause of the disaster; the
major inputs to forecasting models are snow
cover, terrain, and atmospheric meteorological
parameters. GIS technology using Satellite RS
data is considered the most efficient tool against
the prediction models. The satellite data used are
MODIS, AWiFS, AVHRR, LISS-III, WiFS, PAN,
Cartographic Satellite (CARTOSAT), I KONOS,
Quick bird, etc. During cloud cover, the
microwave (AMSR-E, SSM/I, Radar sat,
ENVISAT) imagery is in use. The Quick
Response Teams (QRTs) are equipped with
gadgets /equipment as State Disaster
Management Authorities (SDMAs) in alliance
with District Disaster Management Authorities
(DDMAs), and NDRF.
7.3 Hazard Protection
The increased military activities, communication
routes, escalation in winter tourism, built of
hydroelectric projects (HEP), transmission lines,
and upsurge of urbanization in snowy areas.
Protection against avalanches warrants riskless
and safe buildings, roads, townships, and
growing projects in these areas innocuous from
avalanches. Judicious action plans, safe zoning
procedures, and strict construction adherence by
experts are the wise solutions. Failing the risk
avoidance, in the case of transmission/power
lines, roads, and railroads, the stipulations to
reduce with the implementation of appropriate
structural controls and safety measures. From
the old field data and historical evidence,
avalanche-prone areas have restrictions on
building of structures involving winter local use.
Agriculture, mountaineering and recreation
activities only allowed in the non-avalanche
months. Explosive techniques either were in
practice for the cautious relief of snow mass from
avalanches by many smaller, or controlled
avalanche releases. It is wise to avoid large
disparaging avalanches.
Engineering structures for the control of snow
avalanches are:
i) Supporting structures in the formation zone
prevents initiating or retarding movement
before the snowball gains momentum.
ii) Retarding earth mounds or stone/concrete
walls and terraces, rigid structures built in
terraces or cliffs Fig. 6(f).
iii) Runout zone deflecting and retarding
structures push the dropped snow mass
away from structures in dire locations.

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Massive structures of earth, concrete, or
rock as breakers, rough tri/ or tetrapod’s,
and setting of crosscurrents erections
facing the snow current can ameliorate the
impact of the huge snow mass of the
avalanche.
iv) Direct protection to individual structures
avalanche sheds built immediately
adjacent to the target.
v) Avalanche shelters roofs over transport
routes or rail lines that allow to pass
avalanches overhead, Fig. 6(d).
The border roads organization (BRO) along with
SASE, undertake the construction and
maintenance the network of roads in the high
snow-bound mountains in WIH. They include
roads connecting Leh (J&K), Sikkim, Arunachal
Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand.
They have the duty for clearance operation of
snow-avalanche. The monitoring, identification,
segregating zones, and recording of new areas
of avalanche is the responsibility of the BRO and
the SASE. The forecasting of snow avalanches.
and the construction of avalanche combating
structures, detection devices, protection kits, and
marking of the winter route is the duties of SASE
and BRO.
8. ARTIFICIAL TRIGGERING BY
EXPLOSIVES
Artificial triggering (AT) used in avalanches to
drop the calamitous impact. It is dynamic and
economical technique for moderation of
avalanche hazards. The artificial triggering
method regulate the activity time and size of the
avalanche. AT method uses generation of blast
waves generated by the explosion to apply
additional pressure loading at high strain rates to
the snow layers and split them into fragments. It
causes the release of unstable snow-mass in the
form of a small snow avalanche. Successful
artificial triggering involves continuous evaluation
of snowpack conditions to identify the
suitable window for the application of explosive
loading. The target areas where triggering
actions are needed are Cornice prone areas for
artificial triggering. The making of Artificial
Avalanche by Triggering using 84mm RL
by Gulmarg Indian Army in collaboration with
SASE.
Fig. 6 (a). Snow bridges Fig. 6(b). Guywires, snow cable nets
Fig. 6(c). Snow fences in avalanche area Fig. 6(d). Jet roofs avalanche prone area

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Fig. 6(e). Snow avalanche dams Fig. 6(f). Deflecting berms
8.1 Avalanche Moderation Processes
Retarding mounds near Shri Badrinath Shrine
and the large monolithic stone (Kedarnath) in the
runout zone of an avalanche had saved the
temple in the recent past. The common practices
of avoidance avalanche impact are land use (LU)
precincts, transitory evacuation, or artificial
triggering. The constant rise in people and their
activity in the area has warranted either
moderation or prevention of initiation by building
structures like damming, retarding mounds, snow
bridges, gulley wires, snow fences, etc.
However, the common hard structures to
moderate, prevent initiation and protect
structures are (a) direct protection targets,
Pavements, rail lines;(b) deflecting and/or
channelizing rolling snow;(c) blocking and storing
snow by dams; (d) backing up snow initially, and
(e) reducing avalanche hazard frequencies
baffles or fences (Fig. 6(a) to Fig. 6(f)).
9. AVALANCHE HAZARD MITIGATION
WIH
SASE with Cryosphere Science and Technology
deploy and facilitate troops for operational
mobility and precision avalanche forecasting in
western Indian Himalayas (WIH) avalanche-
prone areas covering J&K, HP, and Uttarakhand.
Their Mountain Meteorological Centre is at
Srinagar (J&K), Sasoma (J&K), Jammu (J&K),
and Joshimath (U. Khand), through HQ SASE
Manali (HP) covering a 2000Km2 area. SASE
established observatories and (AWS) automatic
weather stations at altitudes up to 5500 m
(M.S.L) in Siachen Glacier. SASE has mapped
using GIS/RS techniques, the avalanche sites,
and routes/road axes in avalanche-prone areas
for both Army and civilian movement areas.
Avalanche awareness programs were conducted
with the display of personal protective equipment
(PPE) for the people from the army along with
the civilian in avalanche-susceptible areas in
WIH, particularly in the Central and Western
Himalayas. They focus on:
i. Avalanche forecasting in mountain weather
ii. Mitigating avalanche hazard by artificial
triggering and constructing control
structures
iii. RS/GIS technology for extracting terrain
and gathering snow cover information
iv. Developing models, and simulations of
snow cover and physic of avalanche
v. Observatory setup network and
instrumentation in high altitudes
Avalanche forecasting is practiced at various
spatial scale levels. The common models used
are k-NN Models (k-Nearest Neighbors or eNNio
model).
10. SOFT COMPUTING METHODS
Since the optimization of the avalanche hazard
problem is complex, cannot use any ongoing
analytical optimization procedure. Some modern
techniques like NIO (Nature-Inspired
Optimization) techniques considered providing
better results than conventional Algorithms, like
PSO, (Particle Swarm Optimization) or ABC
(Artificial Bee Colony). The other wavelet based
forecasting (WRF) model considered better
weather forecasting tool used for 6-days
forecast, by use of the eNNio model. Other
parallel programming NIO techniques used is
ABC model, that uses the compute-intensive.
Hidden Markov Model (HMM) used for avalanche
forecasting in Pir-Panjal and Great Himalaya and
a Decision Support System (DSS) for Karakoram
Himalaya using Multi-Criteria Decision Making
(MCDM) problems. SASE has responsibilities to

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identify avalanche zones, safe launch location,
the time of artificial triggering, and safety during
artificial triggering practices at Gulmarg site, J&K
in Feb. of 2018.
11. NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION
During winter, austere weather events like heavy
snowfall with strong gale wind occur in the
Western Indian Himalayan (WIH) region due to
the drive of synoptic systems called (WD’s) that
cause snow avalanches. Precise forecasting of
WD’s, wind, temperature and precipitation plays
vital role for cause disaster, the snow avalanches
in the Western and Central Himalayas. Due to
very high altitude, inaccessible areas the
observation data availability is meagre in those
no man’s land except the satellite data. Based on
simulation of those predicted data, forecast for
the area by using WRF model (ARW-WRF;
model version) provided to the people of J&K,
HP (Himachal Pradesh), and Uttarakhand (U’
Khond) states in WIH.
11.1 Slope, Aspect, Relief, and Rugosity
It is found that the avalanche generally occurs in
mountainous having slopes ranging between 20°
to 60° but the frequencies are very high when the
gradient is ranging from 30° to 45°, which is the
best angle of repose. The leeward wind and solar
exposure initiate avalanche profiles on snowy
slopes.
The surface slope facing the sun decides to have
a profound impact on the snowpack and hence
the wet avalanche in mid-amplitudes. The
incident insolation is more direct on the southern
slope than the northern slope. The northward
and east-facing slopes are exposed to less heat
so colder in NH (Northern Hemisphere). In WIH,
most of the mountainous slopes faced towards
India are either North or NE, or East. The WIH is
highly prone to avalanches with less relief.
The roughness of the rolling slope of the terrain
behaves as either free sliding or a cohesive layer
that can trap snow during descending the slope.
Bald surface, grass covering, and mountainous
flora having less cover perform as a perfect
sliding slope. Big trees, bushes, orchards, and
shrubs, help to resist the role of snow along the
downslope Panditra et al., [65]. Intervening
terrace of water bodies or smooth herbs makes
the surface idle rolling surface that can moderate
snow avalanche hazard Risk Assessment,
Himachal Pradesh, [10].
The avalanche risk index is a multiplicative
function used for calculating.
Risk index = f (S, A, L) Where: Risk index =
Avalanche risk index; S = Slope; A = Aspect;
L = Land cover (i)
The HP state disaster risk assessment, 2015 and
reported that the slopes <20°, 20-30°, 30 – 45°,
45 -60° and >60° are 8220km2, 9308km2,
13801km2, 4139km2, and 253km2 respectively.
As per the Hazard, Vulnerability & Risk Analysis
atlas of Himachal Pr., [10], the optimum range of
angle for the high vulnerability of avalanche is
30° - 45° the slope angle.
12. GIS / RS USE FOR AVALANCHE
STUDY
GIS/RS are the best use to analyze the
avalanche for its occurrence, prediction, or
devastation, AE (Analog Ensemble) prediction
system based on real time QPF’s for microscale
weather forecast developed by the SASE. Six
meteorological observatories at various ranges
Shameswari, Pir-pinjal, great Himalayas and
Karakoram have been working in NWIH. These
AE systems, an independent local organization,
which utilizes ground, based meteorological
observatories to observe daily meteorological
parameters, and meteorologists generate local
microscale weather forecasts for coming 3-days
in advance and test the previous day forecast
already transmitted over NWH. They generate
forecast for meteorological parameters like
surface air temperatures (maximum, minimum,
and ambient in (UTC) universal time coordinated
scale), surface atmospheric pressure in millibar,
wind speed/direction in knots, relative humidity,
and of upper air pressure with wind velocity.
(Khatiwada, et al., [66],Yriyan et al. [67], Altaweel
[68]).
13. DISCUSSION
The avalanche (snow) is common in winter
extreme climate, snow fed areas, high relief with
large slope (>1 in 300) and triggered by
earthquake. The avalanche disaster is sporadic
in eastern and infrequent in central and regular in
western Himalayas in India. The height
favourable are >3km. IMD has reported very little
past historical evidence before the epoch
Anthropocene (1950) being the warden of
disaster. The avalanches statistics reveal the
disaster are in upsurge trend from 1970 and
onwards. The anthropogenic activities in the

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glaciers, military accomplishment, increased
earthquake tremor, global warming, erratic onset
and withdrawal of monsoon, unrest BoB and the
Arabian Sea can have influenced the rise of
snow avalanches in the western Himalayas. In
recent past (08th Feb 2022) an avalanche in
Arunachal has taken seven Army personnel
which is uncommon in Northeast Himalayas (The
print; 12 February 2022).
Fig. 7(a): The slope & hazard polygons by GIS-based spatial model; Fig. 7(b): Precipitation
forecast over west/central Himalaya by WRF mesoscale in 9X9 km resolution model (Source:
Google)

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The States of J&K and Himachal Pradesh have
highly vulnerable followed by Uttarakhand.
Snow- avalanches remotely affect northeastern
states like Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh. J&K
state has high interstate connectivity in hill
slopes. Most of these roads have the risk of
landslides at lower altitudes and upper reaches
by snow avalanches. The village roads wind up
on way to some of the important passes on Pir-
Panjal and the Great Himalayan range during
snowfall. The BRO or the state roads
organization maintains the interconnectivity
within various valleys. The mitigation and
avalanche challenges are shared by the state,
BRO, central, SASE, and the defense
organizations. The responsibility for road
clearance, evacuations, pre, and post-trauma
attendances, issuing of avalanche warnings, and
maintenance of highways, railways, and airports
along with all short-term measures shared by all.
Poor coordination at times throws the affected
victims in distress, as so many people’s
responsibility is no man’s accountability.
Initially, people have chosen hit and trial methods
to safeguard themselves depending on the relief
system for facing hazards but the DRR approach
is deployed with adequate EWS. In past, people
were consulting agencies like the SASE or
State Government rescue units to address at the
time of hazard occurrences. Now print,
cloud data, and electronic media are
updated to the aware public of the recent
developments. Factors affecting snow
avalanches (dry or wet) in the WIH area are a
strong western disturbance, heavy snowfall,
snowstorms, earthquake tremors,
industrialization, heavy transportation activities,
vibrations, and flash floods, etc.
14. RECOMMENDATION FOR
AVALANCHE DISASTERS
On move to avalanche prone hazard and the
areas the action plans warranted are (Fig. 8).
Over exploitation of Himalayan ecology, geology,
mineralogy, hydrology, Indian summer monsoon
and human resources have put the WIH to
severe climate change prospective inviting
weather that is more disastrous. Steps to protect
such road axes from avalanche threats by putting
control structures in the path of avalanches are in
progress. Such control structures are existent on
the National Highway-1 A (J&K) and at Badrinath
(Uttaranchal). Since controlling avalanches
action plan permanently, EWS warrants
Fig. 8. Action plan framed for the avalanche prone areas in WIH
•Do not move or take safe rout to save
people;Ascend/descend via safe route;
choose above rupture zone even not over
cornice & leeward slopes; Rescue team
separate (>30m distance each) not in
group; safe crossing first resquer to be
follwed by the team all tied with single
chord tied to waist each; Do not fasten to
ski or walking stick; keep continuous
wireless contact
•Artificial triggering by explosives
executed soundless and as per guidelines;
Be fast during resquing as immediate
saves life than time delayed; Burried
victims to be cleared first fro face; Move
away from gully, drain portion;
Coordinate between the line depts and
trauma actions to be as fast as possible
•Surveying & zoning (safe and
danger zone; Safe zone for all
human activities, & danger zone no
man’s land; Educating people
regularly about avalanche, &
creating awareness on PPP mode.
Regular safety and rescue drills in
villages and army camps
Establishing research avalanche
monitoring and EWS.
•Avoid leeward side, built appropriate hard
structures, contunous monitoring, analsis;
forecasting by experienced experts from
geology, meteorology and seismology and
engineering personnel. The massive structures
are snowbridges, snow cable nets, snow
fences, Jet roofs, snow avlanche dams,
deflecting berms, Artificial triggering etc..
Long
term
actions
Prepared
ness
Insitu
actions
Short-
term
actions

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improving avalanche-forecasting techniques. The
practice of DRR by SASE needs war footing
approaches. Regular researches, workshops,
training programs, etc. need to have widespread
awareness, impact assessment, and short and
long-term mitigation activities avalanche hazards.
15. CONCLUSION
Avalanches in the Indian Himalayas are a
recurring phenomenon. During Anthropocene,
the epoch avalanche threat has surged up in
high altitudes and steep slopes of snowy WIH
steep gulley. Previous combating avalanche
confined to only relief. Present way of slamming
a disaster base upon disaster risk reduction
adaptations. They are:
It is of opinion that most of the snow avalanche
exposed areas are >3500m altitude, slopes
within the range 30-45°, north-facing convex
slopes.
The combating avalanche in sloped hilly
mountainous areas with no or little, mostly
among uneducated mass is a hard nut to crack.
The avalanche exposure is preparedness,
training, proper zoning, preparedness, DRR risk
assessment, accurate forecasting, and
permanent preventing structures, and all
combating measures to follow strictly.
The strong coordination between the line
departments of the government and DRR
responses on PPP mode during, pre and post
disaster period shall reduce the risk, vulnerability,
impact of the increasing frequency of the
avalanche disaster.
DISCLAIMER
The products used for this research are
commonly and predominantly use products in our
area of research and country. There is absolutely
no conflict of interest between the authors and
producers of the products because we do not
intend to use these products as an avenue for
any litigation but for the advancement of
knowledge. Also, the research was not funded by
the producing company rather it was funded by
personal efforts of the authors.
COMPETING INTERESTS
Authors have declared that no competing
interests exist.
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