Belt-and-Road-Initiative-BRI-and-China’s-“Love”-for-Bangladesh

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Belt and Road Initiative and its impact on Bangladesh

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Asian Regional Review
DiverseAsia
Vol.3 No.2 (2020)
Southeast Asia CenterSNUAC 1
Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and China’s “Love” for Bangladesh: What
Bangladesh Could Actually Expect from It
With an aim to improve regional collaboration, increase trade volume and stimulate economic growth, China initiated the
current BRI project in 2013. More than 70 countries across Asia, Europe and Africa have joined the venture so far. Due to its
geographical importance, China selected Bangladesh as a member of both the BCIM economic corridor and 21st Century
Maritime Silk Road under BRI. Bangladesh expects to benefit enormously from this project especially in infrastructural
development and trade creation. At the same time, the country is in danger of suffering from inter-state conflict and debt burden.
Bangladesh thus has to play smart in order to fulfil its national interest related to BRI.
Iffat Ishrat Khan (Chittagong Independent University)
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) formerly known as One Belt, One
Road (OBOR) initiative was proposed by the Chinese President Xi
Jinping in 2013 as an initiative to improve regional integration, increase
trade volume and stimulate economic growth (Rahman 2019). More
than 70 countries from Asia, Europe and Africa have already joined the
project making it the largest kind of Economic Integration in the world
history (Constantinescu et al. 2018), and more are constantly getting
added in the geographical coverage of BRI. The President of the Center
for International Relations and Sustainable Development, Vuk Jeremic,
complimented the initiative as “the greatest human endeavor ever to
connect countries and cultures” (Islam 2017).
Initial One Belt, One Road project.
© DIVERSE+ASIA
Demographically the project covers 65% of the world population,
while economically it includes one-third of the world’s Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) (Rahman 2019). China is the initiator of this mega project
and has promised billion dollar funds and debts to the participating
countries in order to bring this project into reality. Bangladesh falls
in one of the important economic corridors of BRI. Consequently, it
receives special attention from the host country. China is now the largest
trading partner of Bangladesh, and diplomatic, economic and military
co-operation is increasing positively (Fuad 2017). This paper aims at
scrutinizing the Chinese led BRI project and finding out opportunities
and challenges for Bangladesh.
The purpose of Belt Road Initiative (BRI)
The current BRI project was born out of a pair of grand development
strategy speeches by the Chinese president Xi Jinping delivered in
Kazakhstan and Indonesia in 2013 (Pantucci 2019). The initial name
was “One Belt, One Road,” but it was changed to “Belt Road Initiative”
in the middle of 2016 due to the misinterpretation of the term “One.”
As BRI project aims to connect people in multiple dimensions, the word
“One” became unsuitable for the purpose. Since the inauguration,
this project has successfully grabbed the attention of policy makers,
academicians and researchers, political leaders and various other
stakeholders from all around the world. The vision of the BRI project is
“to connect the people over the world in terms of political dimensions,
economic dimensions and cultural dimensions” (Sarker et al. 2018).
It particularly focuses on establishing free trade agreement among
partner countries in custom, approval and inspection management. In
addition, for strengthening connectivity among the participant countries,
the BRI project also targets at building roads, ports, rail links, and
gas, oil and telecommunication pipelines on the currently unavailable
routes. It is estimated that the project will have an investment over 1
trillion USD heavily focused on infrastructural development to ensure
connectivity. In the second Belt Road Forum (BRF) organized last year in

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Beijing, the Chinese President Xi Jinping put emphasis on the progress
of BRI in favor of the common good of humanity by connecting them
together. The president said, “The flow of goods, capital and technology
and people can provide strong impetus and broad space for economic
growth” like the way “ceaseless flow of rivers makes the oceans deep”
(Muniruzzaman 2019).
Although BRI seems to be a new initiative, the seed of this project
was sowed more than 2000 years ago during Han dynasty (207 BCE-
220 CE) through the Silk Road trade relationships. By producing and
exporting the highly demanded product of that reign, Silk, China
established trade relationship with Arab and Central Asia; henceforth,
the trading route among these regions were coined as Silk Route (Sarker
et al. 2018). To give tribute to this ancient collaboration, the two major
programs under the current BRI project have been named upon Silk
Route. One of the programs is known as Silk Road Economic Belt while
the other is named as 21st Century Maritime Silk Road. The Silk Road
Economic Belt is a trans-continental passage that connects China with
Southeast Asia, Southern Asia, Central Asia, Russia and Europe. On the
other hand, the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road is a sea route linking
China’s coastal regions with Southeast and South Asia, the South
Pacific, the Middle East and Eastern Africa to Europe (Rahman 2019).
There are five key focus areas that BRI would aim to accomplish: policy
coordination, connectivity, unimpeded trade, financial integration and
people-to-people contact (Muniruzzaman 2019). For accomplishing
the goals in real terms, the mega project will be sub-divided into six
economic corridors (see Table 1) so that area wise implementation
procedure could be applied. As BRI is a huge project, it will also require
huge amount of finance. Already 40 billion USD Silk Road fund has
been announced by the Chinese government. Some other major
funding bodies include China Investment Corporation, Export-Import
bank of China, China Development Bank and more. To deal with the
financial matters of BRI, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank
(AIIB) was specially established in 2014, and it holds 100 billion USD
as its initial capital specifically for infrastructural development of the
project. Several thousand billion USD funding is also estimated to
come from the many Memorandum of Understandings (MOU) signed in
favor of the project and from other Chinese and international financial
institutions (Sarker et al. 2018).
Table 1: Major Partners and Events of BRI (Unit: billion USD)
65 Countries
Accounted
Connects 65 countries and estimated 4.4 billion people 65 Countries
Accounted.
30% of GDP Accounted for over 63% of world population and 30% of GDP.
3 Rounds The 3rd round of China’s opening up after development of Special
Economic Zones and accession to WTO.
70+
Countries
Over 70+ countries and international organizations have signed
cooperation agreements with China.
5 Key Areas The 5 key areas of cooperation are: policy coordination, facilities
connectivity, trade, financial integration and people-to-people ties.
6 Economic
Corridors
Set-up 6 economic cooperation corridors: China Pakistan, New Eurasia
Land Bridge, China-Mongolia-Russia, China-Central Asia-West Asia,
China Indochina Peninsula, Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar.
US$ 953
Billion
China’s trade value with BRI countries reached 953 billion in 2016, 25.7%
of China’s total trade 8158.
8158
Contracts
8158 Contracts were signed by Chinese enterprises in 61 countries in
2016.
EXIM Bank
of China
It had started financing over 1000 projects in 49 OBOR countries in 2016.
Source: Sarker et al., 2018, “One Belt One Raod Initiative of China: Implication for Future of Global
Development,” Modern Economy 9: 630, https://www.scirp.org.
A special feature of BRI that received admiration from experts’ level is
its sincere pledge in shaping the project according to the international
standards in quality. The BRI implementation committee has formally
announced their zero tolerance policy towards any misappropriation
or corruption in the project. Also they have urged the initiators to meet
environmental standards while implementing any project under BRI
and to ensure that no damage is done to the environment during the
construction process (Muniruzzaman 2019).
China’s Ambition and Significance of
Bangladesh
The Belt and Road initiative could be considered the panacea for China
to become the Pan-Asian leader. The initiative has been designed
from such a holistic perspective that the successful implementation
of the projects under BRI will ensure both economic and geo-political
supremacy of China all around Asia and beyond. However, China needs
strong support from the BRI nations in order to secure its position.
Among the countries that are vital for China in this regard, Bangladesh
is one of the most important. Bangladesh is part of the proposed
Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) economic corridor under
BRI project. Due to its geographical location and the demographic
structure, this comparatively small country has become the center of
attraction for China.
Economic Supremacy
Much of China’s export goods come from their highly skilled sector

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of heavy industrial goods such as steel, cement and aluminum.
These goods were earlier destined mostly to the United States of
America. However, in recent years the demand from the west has
declined noticeably leaving China suffering from widespread over
capacity in these major sectors and a declining GDP growth (Kon et
al. 2016). To keep the wheel of China’s export income running, they
desperately looked for new markets for the heavy industrial goods.
The infrastructural development projects under BRI across the several
developing countries in Asia like Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka
then became the perfect source for utilizing China’s excess supply of
industrial goods. Some of the construction projects under BRI is funded
by China itself. There are infrastructural development projects such
as a 54 billion USD land route project from Xinjiang, China to Gwadar,
Pakistan; a proposed high speed rail line of 3000 km long from south-
west China to Singapore, and a 1.1 billion USD sea port in Sri Lanka.
After the accomplishment of this infrastructure development project,
China’s export volume will continue to increase well via establishing
new trade relationship with the newly linked BRI countries (Fuad 2017).
In accordance with exports, China will also become economically
benefited from their imports. Currently, China’s huge demand of
natural capital such as oil, gas and minerals are fulfilled by importing
them mostly through the Strait of Malacca from the Persian Gulf
states. However, this scenario will drastically change when China will
become successful in diversifying their import quotas among the newly
connected BRI countries. The new BRI routes will allow China to secure
their energy imports from nearer locations, shorter time and cheaper
rates (Kon et al. 2016).
Geo-Political Supremacy
Like economic supremacy, China is equally in the run of ensuring geo-
political supremacy around the Pan-Asian region. By playing the role of
the initiator and the core implementer of BRI project, China is expanding
its presence all over the Belt and Road region. China has already signed
thousands of MOU’s with neighboring BRI partners on diversified issues
such as infrastructure development, educational exchange and cultural
interaction. For example, in Bangladesh, Chinese experts are working as
leaders for multibillion dollar construction projects i.e Karnaphuli tunnel
construction project in Chattogram, Padma Bridge construction project
in Mawa. In Turkmenistan, China has established Confucius Institute
and provided Hanban teachers to language universities. Besides,
Chinese Ambassadors are found to be regularly present in local press
and local discourse of different countries (Pantucci 2019). All these
collaborations and activities are focused on bringing acceptance of the
Chinese people among the BRI nations. The omni-presence of China
all around the Asian region might also bring international recognition to
its currency Renminbi (RMB) and secure them the position of the next
global leader (Fuad 2017).
Significance of Bangladesh
Bangladesh officially became a member of BRI in 2016. Xi Jinping
personally visited Bangladesh to onboard the country in BRI and the
two countries signed 21 deals worth of 21.5 billion USD (Rahman
2019), 15 agreements and MOU’s and 12 loan and mutual cooperation
agreements (Faruque 2018). Due to Bangladesh’s critical access
position of the Bay of Bengal and Indian Ocean, the country is of a great
importance to China. Bangladesh stretches between the Himalayan
foothills in the north and the Bay of Bengal in the south. Therefore, this
is that unique country which could geographically connect South Asia
to South East Asia. Moreover, Bangladesh’s Bay of Bengal could be the
closest sea access point for the landlocked Southern Provinces of China,
Bhutan, Nepal and seven north eastern states of India (Faruque 2018).
Due to being a strategic maritime nation, one of the six economic
corridors of BRI, BCIM, will pass through Bangladesh starting from
Kunming and ending up at Kolkata. For the same reason, Bangladesh
is also enlisted under the planned 21st century maritime silk road (Belt
and Road Initiative: Perspective from Bangladesh 2019).
Map of China’s Belt and Road Initiative with the 6 economic corridors and maritime Silk Road
Source: OECD Business and Finance Outlook 2018
In accordance with geographical location, Bangladesh is also of very
importance to China due to economic, demographic and political

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reasons. Currently Bangladesh’s GDP is growing at more than 7%
annually; hence, Goldman-Sachs identified the country among the next
11 countries having the potential of becoming the largest economies
of this century. In recent years, Bangladesh has shown remarkable
progress in education, health care and child mortality indicators and
successfully developed huge youth workforce aged between 15-30
years. On the other side, the Chinese economy is moving towards a
developed economy. They are downsizing the low-tech industries
and expanding their high margin, high tech industries like artificial
intelligence, aerospace and IT. As labor cost is also increasing in China,
many Chinese manufacturing industries are planning to relocate their
surplus industrial capacities to countries like Bangladesh who has
suitable workforce and wage rate for it (Faruque 2018).
One of the main reasons behind China’s attachment to Bangladesh
is successfully establishing Chinese power in the South Asian region.
Another potential ruler of this region, India, is in a constant competition
with China for securing the place of regional ruler. The main water way
trade route for China is the Strait of Malacca accessed through the
Indian Ocean. Therefore, there is a persistent threat for China of losing
connectivity to this water way if India decides to block this route during
a potential war situation. In this condition, China’s most convenient
alternative water way connectivity would be the Bay of Bengal water
way accessed through the sea ports of Bangladesh. Also, land-based
connectivity with Bangladesh is a must for China because it plans to
develop oil and gas pipelines starting from Chattogram port to Kunming
via Myanmar’s territory. This will allow the landlocked provinces of
southern-western China to fulfil their demand of energy resources
through easier and cheaper way of transportation. This land-based
new trade route will also assist China to reduce its high dependency on
the Straits of Malacca and eradicate the tension of getting dominated
by India (Faruque 2018). As a consequence, China intentionally gives
much priority to Bangladesh in both the land route connection and
water route connection plans of the BRI project.
Opportunities and Challenges for Bangladesh
in BRI
Bangladesh could enormously benefit from the BRI project by utilizing
its geographic location, cheap labor force and warm relationship with
China. It is expected that this regional collaboration will bring huge
trade deals and foreign direct investment (FDI), reduce trade deficit and
ensure major infrastructural development to Bangladesh. On the other
hand, over dependency on China and BRI might result in contentious
inter-state issues with neighboring countries, rise threat to security as
well as bring economic loss to Bangladesh.
Opportunities
Bangladesh gets the opportunity to integrate with large scale
international market through BRI (Rahman 2019). As China is moving
towards high skilled production like artificial intelligence and robotics,
it is looking for alternate destination for its low and semi-skilled
industries. Bangladesh has become a suitable location for relocating
these Chinese industries due to having proper labor force and capital
for such production. An increase of 17.5% (808.14 million USD to
949.41 USD) export income coming from China in the fiscal year
2016-17 compared to the previous year is a proof of this fact (Faruque
2018). Additionally, Bangladesh will be able to fortify its supply chain
of apparel industry-the major source of export income-by importing
raw materials from China at a cheaper rate through the newly linked
routes and further stimulate export income. China’s engagement
in Bangladesh’s current Special Economic Zones (SEZs) and Export
Processing Zones (EPZs) is expected to boost bilateral trade between
the countries and might open up new export destinations in the global
market. Another trade creation opportunity for Bangladesh in the BRI
region will be through specialization on some of the 5000 products
those China has authorized duty-free access (Karim et al. 2018). China
is now the largest trade partner of Bangladesh and trade is growing at
an attractive rate. The volume of trade between the two countries were
recorded to be 12 billion USD in the fiscal year 2014 and it is predicted
to exceed 30 billion USD by 2021 (Ramachandran 2019).
Bangladesh’s Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, left, shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the
Great Hall of the People in Beijing on Tuesday, June 10, 2014.
Source: AP Photo

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Bangladesh’s proximity to the land-locked southern region of China
makes Bangladesh important for the development of those Chinese
provinces. Thus China has a vested interest in upgrading Bangladesh’s
infrastructure. China considers Bangladesh as a safe place for
investment as Bangladesh does not have any geo-political tension
with the country unlike the other regional super power India. In a
seminar organized in 2016, the Chinese Ambassador to Bangladesh
Ma Mingqiang, expressed China’s aim of becoming the number one
investor of Bangladesh (Faruque 2018). In parallel, Bangladesh has
been desperately looking for investor for its infrastructural development
but traditional sources of funding have been proved inadequate
(Rahman 2019). When World Bank has halted its promised fund of
1.2 billion USD for constructing the Padma Bridge, one of China’s
state owned engineering company agreed to run the project. China is
now investing more than 70% in Bangladesh’s largest infrastructure
the 3.7 billion USD Padma Multipurpose Bridge (Rahman 2019;
Faruque 2018) and making it a reality. Bangladesh’s main sea-port in
Chattogram has been upgraded by China as well, and an industrial park
is getting built over there. Besides this, China has also built seven other
friendship bridges in Bangladesh. For improving the digital connectivity
in Bangladesh, It is also investing 1 billion USD. In accordance with
improving connectivity, China is assisting Bangladesh in upgrading
its energy sector too. Most of China’s 2018-19 fiscal year investment
has been spent on the energy sector. Particularly, China is investing in
the coal-fired power plants in Chattogram and Payra (Rahman 2019).
Currently, average amount of foreign assistance by China per year is
around 1 billion USD. Bangladesh is also supposed to receive bilateral
assistance worth of 24.45 billion USD and 13.6 billion USD investment
fund for mega-projects planned across the country (Faruque 2018). It is
estimated that overall Chinese investment in Bangladesh has gone over
38 billion USD which makes Bangladesh the second largest recipient of
Chinese loans under BRI project in South Asia (Ramachandran 2019).
The all-round development of Bangladesh and its increasing production
capacity is transforming Bangladesh into a business hub. Like the
southern landlocked province of China, Bangladesh could become the
main trade partner for its neighboring land locked countries Nepal,
Bhutan and the 7 north-eastern states of India through its unbroken
land connection. As the ports of Bangladesh are the closest sea-ports
for this part of the South Asian region, imports of foreign goods could
be transported to these countries via Bangladesh (Faruque 2018). This
collaboration is also expected to increase the imports of Bangladeshi
manufactured goods to the same region. Overall, the connectivity
and warm relationship with China arising from the BRI project is likely
to connect Bangladesh with the other economic corridors under the
project and open up the doors of many new opportunities.
Challenges
There is no doubt that the BRI project will bring large scale benefits for
Bangladesh. However, at the same time it will introduce Bangladesh
to many critical challenges. The first and foremost challenge that will
deter Bangladesh from reaping the fruitful consequences of BRI project
is the disagreement among the members of BCIM economic corridor.
As mentioned earlier, among the BCIM members, China and India are in
the race of becoming the regional ruler. Thus, India is reluctant to be the
part of a mega initiative ruled by China. Pointing at sovereignty violation
by the China Pakistan (CPEC) economic corridor under BRI, India has
withheld their participation in BRI. The proposed land connection
between China and Pakistan for developing the CPEC economic corridor
passes through Pakistan ruled part of Kashmir. As India believes
Kashmir to be the part of its territory, India blamed CPEC corridor as the
perpetrator for violating the country’s sovereignty. There is also direct
geo-political dispute between China and India over Arunachal Pradesh,
which is currently under the control of India. China claims the same
as one of the parts of Tibet. In accordance with China-India conflict,
conflict between the other two members of BCIM, Bangladesh and
Myanmar, over the Rohingya issue is also a threat to the BCIM corridor.
Myanmar believes the Muslim Bengali dialect speaking ethnic group,
Rohingya, as Bangladeshies. Thus, the Myanmar army with the support
of their Buddhists extremists and Arakan nationals have long been
performing brutal ethnic cleansing activities against this minority group.
Now Bangladesh has given shelter to around 1 million Rohingyas
which has brought tremendous economic burden and security threats
to Bangladesh. All these political disputes among the member states
make the future of BCIM economic corridor very vulnerable (Uddin
2017).
An old African proverb says, “When the elephants fight, it’s the grass
that suffers” (Faruque 2018). Here the grass might be Bangladesh
between the Sino-Indian conflicts. Bangladesh’s growing partnership

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and dependency on China regarding BRI project might deteriorate
the historical friendship ties between Bangladesh and India. India
geographically surrounds Bangladesh from three sides, so Bangladesh
shares many important trans-boundary rivers and lands with India.
On the other hand, Bangladesh lies between the north eastern part
of India and its mainland. This geographical connection between the
two countries resulted in many two way trade deals and numerous
other collaborations. Some of the remarkable deals are Bangladesh’s
energy import from India and internet band export to northeastern
India, India’s access to Bangladeshi sea-ports, and exchanges of the
disputed territories between the two. For accessing Bangladesh’s
infrastructural projects, India agreed to provide 2 billion USD line of
credit to Bangladesh. In 2017, India signed 9 billion USD investment
deals with the same. Referring to the investment deals, the Indian
high commissioner announced that India sincerely wishes to invest
in port, liquefied natural gas and power sectors of Bangladesh due to
great business potentials. In response, Bangladesh has promised to
build SEZs for Indian investors in several places across the country.
Even though having this long historical and economic bond with India,
China became the largest investor and trading partner of Bangladesh
replacing India in recent years due to the BRI project. India has not
taken this fact positively and identified China as a “thorn” between the
relationship of India and Bangladesh as both have common interests in
Bangladesh. In contrast, Bangladesh is neither in a position politically
or economically to confront with India nor it is capable enough to break
its collaborations with China. Hence, Bangladesh is in a great danger
of falling passive victim of the growing power conflict between the two
rising Asian powers (Faruque 2018).
Besides the political problems and security threats, there are economic
problems too which Bangladesh might face from the BRI project.
The huge amount of funds that China has promised to disburse to
Bangladesh will come along with high interest rate, so Bangladesh is
in the danger of falling in debt trap and thus get engulfed by the giant.
Also, the amount of investment that China promised has a slow pace of
reimbursement. For example, China has released only 194.81 million
USD out of 689.35 million USD fund for the Karnaphuli river tunnel
project. This slow rate of disbursement of funds is also slowing down
the progress of the infrastructural development projects and causing
great financial loss to Bangladesh (Ramachandran 2019).
The world’s largest regional collaboration BRI is expected to bring
macro scale positive impact on economic, political and social condition
of the participating members. Being on a geo-strategically significant
position, Bangladesh has got much highlight in this mega initiative.
The country has huge potential benefits to reap out from this project,
especially in the sectors of infrastructure and trade. The infrastructural
development and trade creations via BRI project will help Bangladesh
in enriching its growth rate. Things to keep in mind for Bangladesh is to
give utmost priority to national needs at first. In planning and executing
the projects, transparency and accountability should be maintained
strictly. Collaboration with the regional super powers of the BRI project
has stimulated the growth rate of the country; nevertheless, Bangladesh
has to be cautious about undue dominance from the Asian leaders.
Investment from countries like India and China at this moment is crucial
for Bangladesh, however they should be tackled in such a way that
Bangladesh does not become the center of disappointment for the two.
Author Introduction
Iffat Ishrat Khan (iffat.khan@ciu.edu.bd)
is a lecturer at Chittagong Independent University.
Iffat Ishrat Khan has received her master’s degree at University of Dhaka
in Development Studies majoring in Economic Development. Her major
achievements are publishing research article with Routledge publisher
and participating in regional peace building program in Cambodia. She
has conducted research on economic and political issues of Bangladesh
and published article on street children’s involvement in politics which is
“Involvement of street children in the political violence of Bangladesh.”

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