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Paying the Price for Putin's Adventurism

April 2022

In book: A RESTLESS EMBRACE OF THE PAST? THE CONFERENCE ON RUSSIA PAPERS 2022 (pp.14-23)
Publisher: The Baltic Defence College

Authors:

Maria Snegovaya

Columbia University

As Russia’s economy stagnated and real disposable incomes declined in the aftermath of the Kremlin’s 2014 war with Ukraine, observers have tried to analyze the extent to which these factors are able to shift Putin’s foreign policy priorities. This paper reviews the existing evidence to analyze how the perceived deterioration of the economic situation affects the Russian population’s foreign policy priorities. Overall, polls reveal dramatic shifts in Russian popular attitudes since 2014. In light of the worsening economic situation, popular demand for a stable and growing economy in Russia has dominated over other considerations. But while domestic opinion constrains the Kremlin’s foreign policy decisions, it has previously proven incapable of imposing serious political costs on Putin for his reckless foreign policy decisions and international escalation. However, as socio-economic problems continue to accumulate, these domestic constraints on the Kremlin’s foreign policy will become more severe.

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