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Genevieve Briand, Ph.D.
Assistant Director
MS in Applied Economics
Advanced Academic Programs
Johns Hopkins University
gbriand@jhu.edu
Genevieve Briand | LinkedIn
Working paper
March 2022
Age Distribution per Cause: U.S. Monthly Deaths 1999-2021.
Abstract
This paper presents plots of U.S. monthly deaths per age group for each of the six main causes of death.
Publicly available CDC data from 1999 to 2021 are used. The plots are presented at the request of readers and
are meant to complement Briand’s February 2022 working paper.
These plots provide further evidence of reclassification of deaths across categories and evidence consistent with
the vaccine deaths hypothesis.
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Table of Contents
All cause-all age deaths versus all cause deaths age distribution ...........................................................p.03
Heart diseases deaths age distribution and cancer deaths age distribution .............................................p.04
All cause deaths age distribution versus respiratory diseases deaths age distribution ...........................p.05
Cerebrovascular diseases deaths age distribution and Alzheimer deaths age distribution .....................p.06
Diabetes deaths age distribution .............................................................................................................p.07
Respiratory diseases deaths age distribution versus COVID-19 deaths age distribution .........................p.08
U.S. deaths due to respiratory diseases: Short-term historic context ......................................................p.09
Discussion and conclusion .....................................................................................................................p.10
References ..............................................................................................................................................p.11
List of Table and Graphs
U.S. monthly deaths: all cause-all age, 1999-2021: Graph 1.
U.S. monthly deaths: all cause-per age group, 1999-2021: Graph 2.
U.S. monthly deaths due to heart diseases-per age group, 1999-2021: Graphs 3.
U.S. monthly deaths due to cancer-per age group, 1999-2021: Graphs 4.
U.S. monthly deaths due to respiratory diseases-per age group, 1999-2021: Graphs 5.
U.S. monthly deaths due to cerebrovascular diseases-per age group, 1999-2021: Graphs 6.
U.S. monthly deaths due to Alzheimer-per age group, 1999-2021: Graphs 7.
U.S. monthly deaths due to diabetes-per (select) age group (for clarity), 1999-2021: Graphs 8a-b.
U.S. monthly deaths due to COVID-19-per age group, 1999-2021: Graphs 9.
Percentage of total yearly deaths due to main causes, 1999-2021: Table 1.
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1 All cause-all age deaths versus all cause deaths age distribution
Graph 1. U.S. monthly deaths: all cause-all age, 1999-2021 (Microsoft Excel line chart)
Graph 1 is a replica of Graph 1a and Graph 2 is a replica of Graph 3, from (1). The increase in troughs over
2020-21 resembles the structural break observed in deaths due to Alzheimer (Graph 7, and Graph 16b in (1)).
A peak of deaths in January 2021 is not unexpected—as peaks of deaths, most often than not, occurred in
January. The fact that the April 2020 peak is lower than the January 2021 one, by a larger magnitude than the
January 2018 peak is compared to it, and the fact that the September 2021 peak is nearly as high as the April
2020 peak, give further ground that the so feared April 2020 peak was not as alarming as led to believe.
Graph 2. U.S. monthly deaths: all cause-per age group, 1999-2021 (Microsoft Excel line chart)
Jan. 2021
372,796
Apr. 2020
321,879
Sep. 2021
307,311
Source: wonder.cdc.gov
Source: wonder.cdc.gov
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2 Heart diseases deaths age distribution and cancer deaths age distribution
Graph 3. U.S. monthly deaths due to heart diseases-per age group, 1999-2021 (Microsoft Excel line chart)
Heart diseases are the first leading cause of deaths in the U.S. (see Graph 14a in (1)) and the relative magnitude
of its peaks have always followed those of the all-cause deaths-but not in 2020-21—as if the mountains tips
were cut off. Cancer is the second leading cause of deaths. Cancer deaths do not display the seasonality that
heart diseases and respiratory diseases deaths do, nor the same distribution across age groups.
Graph 4. U.S. monthly deaths due to cancer-per age group, 1999-2021 (Microsoft Excel line chart)
Source: wonder.cdc.gov
Source: wonder.cdc.gov
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3 All cause deaths age distribution versus respiratory diseases deaths age distribution
Graph 2. U.S. monthly deaths: all cause-per age group, 1999-2021 (Microsoft Excel line chart)
Respiratory diseases are the third leading cause of deaths in the U.S. (see Graph 14a in (1)) and age groups 75-
84 and 85 years and over have been leading monthly death numbers in 1999-2021 (Graph 2 above). Yet, deaths
due to respiratory diseases (COVID-19 not included) had their lowest peak ever in Jan. 2021 (over period 1999-
2021) for the 75-84 and 85+ years old and since 2012 for the 55-64 and 65-74 years old (Graph 3 below)—45-
54 years old also experienced their lowest ever monthly peak of deaths due to respiratory diseases.
Graph 5. U.S. monthly deaths due to respiratory diseases-per age group, 1999-2021 (Microsoft Excel line chart)
Source: wonder.cdc.gov
Source: wonder.cdc.gov
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4 Cerebrovascular diseases deaths age distribution and Alzheimer deaths age distribution
Graph 6. U.S. monthly deaths due to cerebrovascular diseases-per age group, 1999-2021 (Microsoft Excel line chart)
Cerebrovascular diseases are the fourth leading cause of deaths in the U.S. (see Graph 16a in (1)). Its deaths’
age distribution is similar to the heart attacks one, with a Dec.2020-Jan.2021 peak no higher than the 2018 and
2001 ones, and lower than the 2000 for the 85 years and older. Alzheimer deaths also show a Dec.2020-
Jan.2021 peak lower than their 2018 one.
Graph 7. U.S. monthly deaths due to Alzheimer-per age group, 1999-2021 (Microsoft Excel line chart)
Source: wonder.cdc.gov
Source: wonder.cdc.gov
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5 Diabetes deaths age distribution
Graph 8a. U.S. monthly deaths due to diabetes-per age group, 1999-2021 (Microsoft Excel line chart)
85 years and over deaths due to diabetes were pretty stable in recent years, prior to 2020 (see Graph 8b below).
The 55-64 years old diabetes deaths have been catching up with the 85+ and the 65-74 with the 75-84 years old.
45-54, 55-64, 65-74 and 75-84 years old all show experiencing an upper trend in deaths due to diabetes. All age
groups, except the 15-24 years, display an increase in diabetes deaths in 2020-21.
Graph 8b. U.S. monthly deaths due to diabetes-per select age group (for clarity), 1999-2021 (Microsoft Excel line chart)
Source: wonder.cdc.gov
Source: wonder.cdc.gov
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6 Respiratory diseases deaths age distribution versus COVID-19 deaths age distribution
Graph 5. U.S. monthly deaths due to respiratory diseases-per age group, 1999-2021 (Microsoft Excel line chart)
COVID-19 highest deaths peak was Dec.2020-Jan.2021, respiratory diseases (COVID-19 not included) was not:
See Section 3. The usual age distribution for deaths due to respiratory diseases is greater numbers for older age
groups. In September 2021, recorded COVID-19 deaths show 65-74 years old died in greater numbers than 75
years and older, and COVID-19 deaths for the 45-54 years old (55-64) were as high as for the 85 years and over
(75-84).
Graph 9. U.S. monthly deaths due to COVID-19-per age group, 2020-2021 (Microsoft Excel line chart)
Source: wonder.cdc.gov
Source: wonder.cdc.gov
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7 U.S. deaths due to respiratory diseases: Short-term historic context
Table 1: Percentage of total yearly deaths due to main causes, 1999-2021
Year
Heart
diseases
Cancer
Respiratory
diseases
Cerebrovascular
diseases
Alzheimer
Diabetes
COVID-19
1999
30.3
23.0
8.9
7.0
1.9
2.9
2000
29.6
23.0
8.9
7.0
2.1
2.9
2001
29.0
22.9
8.7
6.8
2.2
3.0
2002
28.5
22.8
8.8
6.7
2.4
3.0
2003
28.0
22.7
8.9
6.4
2.6
3.0
2004
27.2
23.1
8.7
6.3
2.8
3.1
2005
26.6
22.8
9.0
5.9
2.9
3.1
2006
26.0
23.1
8.6
5.7
3.0
3.0
2007
25.4
23.2
8.6
5.6
3.1
2.9
2008
25.0
22.9
9.2
5.4
3.3
2.9
2009
24.6
23.3
9.1
5.3
3.2
2.8
2010
24.2
23.3
8.9
5.2
3.4
2.8
2011
23.7
22.9
9.1
5.1
3.4
2.9
2012
23.6
22.9
8.9
5.1
3.3
2.9
2013
23.5
22.5
9.3
5.0
3.3
2.9
2014
23.4
22.5
9.1
5.1
3.6
2.9
2015
23.4
22.0
9.2
5.2
4.1
2.9
2016
23.1
21.8
8.9
5.2
4.2
2.9
2017
23.0
21.3
9.2
5.2
4.3
3.0
2018
23.1
21.1
9.2
5.2
4.3
3.0
2019
23.1
21.0
8.8
5.3
4.3
3.1
2020
20.6
17.8
7.4
4.7
4.0
3.0
10.4
2021
19.9
17.5
6.6
4.7
3.5
3.0
12.1
Source: wonder.cdc.gov
The respiratory diseases category includes deaths from chronic lower respiratory diseases (J40-J47), influenza
and pneumonia (J09-J18), and other diseases of respiratory system (J00-J06, J30-J39, J67, J70-J98). They have
represented from 8.8% to 9.3% of U.S. yearly deaths from year 1999 to year 2019.
The Weekly Influenza Surveillance Report (FluView) indicates that 8.3% of U.S. deaths that occurred during
week ending March 26th 2022 were due to pneumonia, influenza, and/or COVID-19 (PIC)—and points out that
this percentage is above the epidemic threshold of 7.1% for that week (4).
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8 Discussion and conclusion
Some thought April 2020 deaths were too high and justified putting our lives on hold, but January 2021
numbers were worse. A peak of deaths in January is usual. Higher deaths number in January 2021 points to the
falsely alarming narrative of April 2020 deaths numbers.
As pointed out before, COVID-19 deaths numbers were overstated, as, logically, had its new ICD-10 code not
been created (2), all these deaths would have found a home in other cause of death categories. Evidence of the
re-categorization occurring is most obvious with the disappearing respiratory diseases death numbers.
In 2021, death numbers have peaked at unprecedented levels, in September, for the 45-54, 35-44 and 25-34
years old. September 2021 deaths for the 65-74 and 55-64 years old were also higher than their April 2020
numbers (1). Why is this significant? Let’s take the 45-54 years old group for example. Seasonal variations in
deaths for this group has always been less pronounced than for the 85 years and older group, but whatever peaks
they had, they still occurred mostly in January for both groups—so a 45-54 years old death peak in September is
unheard of.
Vaccine deaths? The January 2021 peak, which is higher than the April 2020 one, is dominated by deaths from
65 years and older age groups. The September 2021 peak is dominated by 64 years and younger age groups (1).
But don’t those peaks also correspond to the COVID-19 ones? That’s correct.
But, while the April 2020 and January 2021 COVID-19 deaths peaks show the usual age distribution, with deaths
experienced in greater numbers for older age groups, the September 2021 does not. In September 2021,
recorded COVID-19 deaths show 65-74 years old died in greater numbers than 75 years and older, and COVID-19
deaths for the 45-54 years old (55-64) were as high as for the 85 years and older (75-84). This has never
happened before for deaths due to respiratory diseases, from 1999 to 2019. These September 2021 peaks for
“younger” age groups are consistent with the vaccine deaths hypothesis.
This hypothesis should be further tested with deaths data for groups of individuals who all have been
vaccinated, such as individuals in the Armed Forces. If these vaccines can lead to death, then they can certainly
lead to conditions requiring hospitalization. This hypothesis could thus also be further tested by looking at
hospitalization data related to such documented conditions.
The Weekly Influenza Surveillance Report (FluView) indicates that 8.3% of U.S. deaths that occurred during
week ending March 26th 2022 were due to pneumonia, influenza, and/or COVID-19 (PIC)—and points out that
this percentage is above the epidemic threshold of 7.1% for that week. Yet, respiratory diseases’ deaths have
represented 8.8 to 9.3% of U.S. yearly deaths from 1999 to 2019. We are left to wonder whether we will ever
see an end to this epidemic.
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9 References
(1) Briand, G. (2022) “U.S. Deaths A Look at Monthly Data 1999-2021 Data FEB 2022 WORKING PAPER
Genevieve Briand”, February 2022.
(2) Briand, G. (2021) “COVID-19 Deaths A Look at U.S. Data FEB 2021 WORKING PAPER Genevieve
Briand”, February 2021.
(3) Briand, G. (2020) “COVID-19 Deaths A Look at U.S.” Johns Hopkins Advanced Academic Programs
Webinar, November 11th 2020 Webinar.
(4) FluView. A Weekly Influenza Surveillance Report Prepared by the Influenza Division of the CDC. Key
updates for Week 12, ending March 26, 2002. Webpage last updated April 1, 2022. Webpage consulted
April 4, 2022. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/
(5) Rossen, L. M. (2022) CDC/DDPHSS/NCHS/DRM: Deputy Director for Public Health Science and
Surveillance (DDPHSS) at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) National Center for
Health Statistics (NCHS), Division of Research and Methodology (DRM). February 2021, February-March
2022 email communications.
(6) Rossen, L. M., A. M. Branum, F. B. Ahmad, P. Sutton, and R. N. Anderson (2020) “Excess Deaths
Associated with COVID-19, by Age and Race and Ethnicity—United States, January 26-October 3, 2020”
Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, 69(42), Oct. 23rd 2020. Available at:
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/pdfs/mm6942e2-H.pdf (.pdf file)
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6942e2.htm (webpage)
(7) U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS),
COVID-19 Data from NCHS: COVID-19 Death Data and Resources, “Excess Deaths Associated with
COVID-19” webpage, https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
(8) U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) COVID-19 Death Data and Resources webpage,
NVSS COVID-19 Alerts section of the webpage, Notification of new ICD code introduced for COVID-19.
Released 3/24/2020.
(9) U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) WONDER online databases: Underlying Cause of
Death, 1999-2020, deaths occurring through 2020. Tables generated February 25th 2022.
https://wonder.cdc.gov/ucd-icd10.html
(10) U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) WONDER online databases: Provisional Mortality
Statistics, 2018 through Last Month, Deaths occurring through February 19, 2022 as of March 06, 2022.
Tables generated February 25th 2022. https://wonder.cdc.gov/mcd-icd10-provisional.html
(11) World Health Organization (WHO), Classifications, Classifications of Diseases (ICD) webpage. Consulted
02-20-21. ICD-10 Browser (latest version, 2019).
