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Fish Assemblages of a Sub-Arctic Fjord Show Early Signals of Climate Change Response Contrary to the Benthic Assemblages

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Arctic benthic ecosystems are facing high-speed environmental changes, such as decreased sea ice coverage, increased temperature and precipitations, as well as the invasion by non-indigenous species. Few sub-arctic fjords have the particularity to have an inner-most part forming a basin in which water remains very cold. Those fjords may offer a refugee for cold-water arctic species as well as a small-scale “laboratory” of the changes that arctic assemblages located at higher latitudes might face soon. The Porsangerfjord in Northern Norway is a sub-arctic fjord with an inner arctic part and face red king crabs Paralithodes camtchasticus invasion since the end of the 1990s. It offers a case study of the dynamics of arctic ecosystems facing multiple stressors, i.e., climate change and invasive species. Based on a time series of megabenthic invertebrates and bentho-demersal fishes over 2007–2019, a complex multivariate analysis (STATICO) was used to identify the trends in the relationship between taxa and the environment. We showed the main environmental changes in the fjord were the freshening of the water, the increase of the seabed current, and the decrease of the maximum sea ice extent. A strong along-fjord gradient was visible for both benthic and fish assemblages. Species richness and Shannon diversity of fishes significantly increased into the fjord, due to the arrival of warm-water species over time that overlapped with cold-water species that have seen their biomass significantly reduced. No significant decrease in the biomass of the cold-water benthic species was visible, which could indicate an efficient refugee effect of the inner fjord. Yet, this refugee effect could be unbalanced by the red king crab invasion as it is a predator of several arctic species. In the Porsangerfjord, fish species thus respond to climate change while megabenthic assemblages are more threatened by invasive species.
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ORIGINAL RESEARCH
published: 03 March 2022
doi: 10.3389/fmars.2022.822979
Edited by:
Jorge L. Gutiérrez,
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones
Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET),
Argentina
Reviewed by:
Jan Marcin Weslawski,
Institute of Oceanology (PAN), Poland
Ricardo Sahade,
CCT CONICET Córdoba, Argentina
*Correspondence:
Laurène Mérillet
Laurene.Merillet@hi.no
ORCID:
Laurène Mérillet
orcid.org/0000-0003-2838-8740
Morten D. Skogen
orcid.org/0000-0002-6304-7282
Specialty section:
This article was submitted to
Global Change and the Future Ocean,
a section of the journal
Frontiers in Marine Science
Received: 26 November 2021
Accepted: 08 February 2022
Published: 03 March 2022
Citation:
Mérillet L, Skogen MD, Vikebø F
and Jørgensen LL (2022) Fish
Assemblages of a Sub-Arctic Fjord
Show Early Signals of Climate
Change Response Contrary to the
Benthic Assemblages.
Front. Mar. Sci. 9:822979.
doi: 10.3389/fmars.2022.822979
Fish Assemblages of a Sub-Arctic
Fjord Show Early Signals of Climate
Change Response Contrary to the
Benthic Assemblages
Laurène Mérillet1,2*, Morten D. Skogen1,2, Frode Vikebø1,2 and Lis Lindal Jørgensen3
1Institute of Marine Research, Bergen, Norway, 2Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway, 3Institute
of Marine Research, Tromsø, Norway
Arctic benthic ecosystems are facing high-speed environmental changes, such as
decreased sea ice coverage, increased temperature and precipitations, as well as the
invasion by non-indigenous species. Few sub-arctic fjords have the particularity to have
an inner-most part forming a basin in which water remains very cold. Those fjords may
offer a refugee for cold-water arctic species as well as a small-scale “laboratory” of
the changes that arctic assemblages located at higher latitudes might face soon. The
Porsangerfjord in Northern Norway is a sub-arctic fjord with an inner arctic part and face
red king crabs Paralithodes camtchasticus invasion since the end of the 1990s. It offers
a case study of the dynamics of arctic ecosystems facing multiple stressors, i.e., climate
change and invasive species. Based on a time series of megabenthic invertebrates and
bentho-demersal fishes over 2007–2019, a complex multivariate analysis (STATICO)
was used to identify the trends in the relationship between taxa and the environment. We
showed the main environmental changes in the fjord were the freshening of the water,
the increase of the seabed current, and the decrease of the maximum sea ice extent.
A strong along-fjord gradient was visible for both benthic and fish assemblages. Species
richness and Shannon diversity of fishes significantly increased into the fjord, due to the
arrival of warm-water species over time that overlapped with cold-water species that
have seen their biomass significantly reduced. No significant decrease in the biomass
of the cold-water benthic species was visible, which could indicate an efficient refugee
effect of the inner fjord. Yet, this refugee effect could be unbalanced by the red king crab
invasion as it is a predator of several arctic species. In the Porsangerfjord, fish species
thus respond to climate change while megabenthic assemblages are more threatened
by invasive species.
Keywords: biodiversity, invasive species, spatio-temporal dynamics, red king crab, coastal freshening
INTRODUCTION
Climate change has marked effects in the Arctic region: over the last 50 years, it has warmed three
times faster than the rest of the world, the extent of sea ice decreased by 43%, and rainfall increased
by 24% which increased freshwater runoff and surface stratification (Arctic Monitoring Assessment
Program, 2021). Arctic coastal areas, in particular, offer important ecosystem services supporting
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Mérillet et al. Fjords ‘Biodiversity Facing Anthropogenic Impacts
aquaculture and fisheries, and mitigate global climate
change because of high productivity and carbon storage
(Johnsen et al., 2009;Smith et al., 2015;Ortega et al., 2019)
as well as providing suitable areas for spawning grounds and
nurseries for commercially important species (Olsen et al., 2010).
Fjords systems are located at the interface of terrestrial,
oceanic, cryospheric, and atmospheric fields and are highly
vulnerable to climate change as they have to cope with
the cumulative changes that each of these fields is facing
(Białogrodzka et al., 2018;Bianchi et al., 2020). A key variable
to study climate change impacts from the terrestrial influence
is coastal light attenuation. Terrestrially derived organic matters
discharge has increased in recent years along the Norwegian
coastline due to cross effects between increased precipitations,
reduced sulfur deposition, and land-use change (Frigstad et al.,
2020). The resulting light attenuation is susceptible to affect
photosynthetic organisms, favor tactile predators (e.g., jellyfish)
over visual predators (e.g., fish), and finally modify the whole
community (Aksnes et al., 2009). On the other hand, changes in
the open ocean conditions can also affect the dynamics of species
inside the fjords, notably through coastal wind changes resulting
in upwelling or downwelling and the vertical stratification at
the coast (Svendsen, 1995;Asplin et al., 1999). For instance, an
episodic change in wind direction along the Norwegian coast
led to the upwelling of cold waters that induced a slowdown in
the growth of Pecten maximus inside the fjords (Jolivet et al.,
2015). Changes in ocean temperature also cause key predators
of sea urchins to fluctuate in population size (Fagerli et al.,
2014) which had then consequences on the whole ecosystem
due to the grazing pressure sea urchin exert on kelp forest
(Strand et al., 2020). Fauna from the open ocean can also enter
the fjord and modify its taxonomic composition. For instance,
local fjord conditions may attract open ocean megafauna such
as humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) and killer whales
(Orcinus orca) feeding on wintering Norwegian spring-spawning
herring (Clupea harengus) (Jourdain and Vongraven, 2017).
In the south-eastern Barents Sea, 2012 and 2016 are the
two warmest years since 1950 regarding surface temperatures
while sea ice cover in December 2018 was the lowest since
1951 (González-Pola et al., 2019). These physical changes have
already resulted in biodiversity changes in the Barents Sea and
induced a poleward shift of fish assemblages and an increase of
warm water boreal species (Wassmann et al., 2011;Fossheim
et al., 2015;Frainer et al., 2017). Similarly, for megabenthic
species, a recent poleward expansion of boreal assemblages
and a corresponding decrease in the importance of arctic
assemblages were reported (Jørgensen et al., 2019). These changes
in megabenthic assemblages are also visible in arctic fjords
such as Kongsfjord in Svalbard (Kedra et al., 2010b) where
it has eventually led to a regime shift of the rocky-bottom
assemblages with a sharp increase of macroalgae cover (Kortsch
et al., 2012). Megabenthic species are considered as a good
indicator of long-term changes in climatic conditions since they
are largely non-mobile and long-lived, and thus representative
of the sampling site (Reynoldson and Metcalfe-Smith, 1992;
Kedra et al., 2010b;Blicher et al., 2015), while fish species,
more mobile, are hypothesized to react more quickly to climatic
changes (Kortsch et al., 2015). It is thus interesting to compare
fish and benthic assemblage trends facing climate change as fish
may provide early warning of the changes that might later also
affect benthic assemblages.
Climate change is not the only threat to fjord ecosystems. In
link with increased anthropogenic activities, 11 non-indigenous
species were introduced in the Barents Sea region over 1960–
2015, among which 55% got established (Chan et al., 2019). In
fjords of Northern Norway, fish and megabenthos assemblages
have to face invasion by red king crab Paralithodes camtschaticus,
which is one of the rare large, higher-trophic-level organisms
that has established itself into new areas (Jamieson et al., 1998;
Falk-Petersen et al., 2011). Red king crabs were introduced from
the Pacific to the Russian Barents Sea at the end of the 1960s,
and reached the Norwegian coast in the early 1990s (Oug et al.,
2018). Those are active predators (Jørgensen and Primicerio,
2007) that led to substantial structural and functional changes in
megabenthic assemblages with the decrease of large suspension
and surface deposit feeders in adjacent fjords while small, mobile,
shallow burrowing and predator species with planktonic larval
development increased (Oug et al., 2018). Red king crabs also
prey on benthic fish eggs (e.g., lumpfish and sculpin) but are of
minor importance in the diet of large demersal fish and cod that
prey on small and medium red king crabs (Pedersen et al., 2018).
Fjords can harbor relict population of cold-water species, as
it has been shown with the presence of the cold-water species
Bathyarca glacialis in the Olsofjord during the warming that
occurred in the younger Dryas (12,000 years ago) (Spjeldnæs,
1978). Today, sub-arctic fjords of Northern Norway are located
at a latitude where warm-water boreal taxa dominate offshore
(Johannesen et al., 2012;Jørgensen et al., 2015). Very few fjords
have an inner basin isolated from the rest of the fjord and open
ocean by a sill, in which water remains very cold (in Norway, it is
essentially Porsangerfjord, Balsfjord, and Ullsfjord; T. Pedersen
(UiT) personal communication). Such fjords harbor a local and
probably isolated population of cold-water arctic species, as it
has been observed in Porsanger (Oug and Fuhrmann, 2013;
Fuhrmann et al., 2015), and could act as a refugee area for these
species (Włodarska-Kowalczuk et al., 1998;Drewnik et al., 2017;
Yletyinen, 2019). Those fjords can be considered as a “mini arctic”
(Oug and Fuhrmann, 2013), providing unique insights into the
changes undergone by arctic assemblages facing climate change
and invasive species, that might be of relevance for Svalbard and
Northern Barents Sea. Here we focus on the Porsangerfjord as
a case study of the dynamics of the biodiversity of sub-arctic
fjords facing multiple stressors, i.e., climate change and invasive
species. This fjord was closed to shrimp fishing in the early 1970s
after intensive fishing caused the overexploitation of cod and
small young fishes (Søvik et al., 2020). Hence, it is considered
to be free of bottom fishing impacts. The fjord also harbors
a large population of red king crab, that entered the fjord in
the mid-1990s, and progressed toward the inner-most part of
the fjord that they reached after 2010 (Fuhrmann et al., 2015;
Pedersen et al., 2018). It is now an important commercial red
king crab fishery with 921 tones caught in the Porsangerfjord
in 2018 (Søvik et al., 2020). Climate change, through increased
water temperature and light attenuation, has been recorded
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in the fjord. Over 1986–2015, air temperature increased by
0.05C/year near the fjord mouth and 0.04C/year in the inner
basin (Cieszy´
nska and Stramska, 2018). Over 2009–2014, light
attenuation is estimated to be quite high in the inner part of
the Porsanger (up to Kd(PAR) = 1.96, Trine Bekkby (NIVA)
unpublished data, Frigstad, 2020). Light attenuation as a function
of increased precipitation was approximated here by including
riverine discharge among the environmental variables used in
the study. More generally, depth, sediment type, temperature,
current, and sea ice have been related to variation in the structure
of megabenthic assemblages in the Arctic and their effects were
thus investigated here (Gray, 2002;Piepenburg, 2005;Sejr et al.,
2009;O’Sadnick et al., 2020). For fish assemblages, depth and
temperature gradients appear to be the main structuring variables
in the Barents Sea (Johannesen et al., 2012), while sediment type
and seabed currents are also reported to be important structuring
variables of bentho-demersal fish assemblages (Vaz et al., 2007;
Pickens et al., 2021). Since there is a strong salinity gradient in
the Porsanger, salinity was also included as a potential driver of
assemblages in this study for both fish and megabenthos.
Here we aim at investigating the consequences of climate
change and the increase in red king crab biomass on fish
and megabenthic assemblages. More specifically, we investigated
which of these pressures are the most structuring variables for
fish and megabenthic assemblages, whether their importance
changed over 2007–2019, and if the mobile fish assemblages
reacted earlier than the less mobile megabenthic assemblages.
Two datasets covering 2007–2019 for fish and megabenthic
species respectively were explored as functions of environmental
variables known to influence fish and megabenthic species
distribution in fjords. We first investigated (1) temporal trends
in the biomass of each fish and megabenthic species and (2)
temporal changes in biodiversity indices. Then, we characterized
(3) whether a shift is visible in the relationship between species
and environmental variables (i.e., a dramatic change in species
composition or environment); (4) the average structure of
the association of fish and megabenthos with environmental
variables (the distinction between cold and warm water species)
and (5) the interannual variations or the importance of each
environmental variable.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
Study Area
The Porsanger, located in Finnmark above the polar circle is
one of Norway’s largest fjord. It is 123 km long and covers
an area of about 1,877 km2. This large and open sub-arctic
fjord is characterized by the heterogeneity of its environmental
conditions with a strong along-fjord gradient (Fuhrmann et al.,
2015). Three areas can be distinguished in the fjord: (1) the outer
fjord faces the Barents Sea and is influenced by warm and saline
coastal waters with depths around 300 m; (2) the center of the
fjord is separated from the outer fjord by a sill that is about 200
m deep: (3) the inner fjord is isolated from the center of the fjord
by a narrowing of the fjord width and a sill that is about 60 m
deep. In the inner fjord, seabed temperatures are below zero for
half of the year (Fuhrmann et al., 2015) and freshwater inputs
from the three rivers in the inner fjord make the salinity lower
than in the rest of the fjord (Myksvoll et al., 2012). This leads to a
sea ice coverage, present every year but varying in extent, during
late winter until the beginning of the spring (Megan O’Sadnick,
SINTEF, pers. comm.). This creates special conditions that enable
the presence of unique species compared to the adjacent fjords
at the same latitude (Søvik et al., 2020). Freshwater discharge
and stratification in the Porsanger are low (Svendsen, 1995).
There is an anticlockwise surface water circulation in the fjord
with high saline and warm surface waters entering the fjord
on the west and low saline water exiting the fjord on the east
(Svendsen, 1991).
Environmental Variables
Depth data were downloaded from the GEBCO website1and
sediments were taken from the “Marine—Seabed sediments
(grain size) detailed” product from the Geological Survey
of Norway (NGU) website.2The 17 categories of sediments
originally documented in the sediment data were re-coded into 3
main categories to avoid loss of power in the analysis: mud, sand,
and rough substratum. Surface and bottom temperatures, salinity
as well as seabed current were extracted from the NordKyst800
model outputs at 800 ×800 m resolution (Albretsen et al.,
2011;Asplin et al., 2020). An evaluation of this model was
performed (Supplementary Figure 1). The mean errors between
observations and model do not have significant temporal trends,
but they are significantly different between areas. Despite this
spatial bias, the along-fjord gradient was well reconstructed by
the model. Outputs of the NorKyst800 models could thus be
used to identify potential changes in the relationship between
environment and taxa along the fjord. River discharges (m3/s)
were taken from the outputs of an HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns
Vattenbalansavdelning) model run by the Norwegian Water
Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) (Bergström, 1995;
Lindström et al., 1997). We selected the cells corresponding to
the inner and central/outer fjord and compute the annual mean.
Sea ice maximum extent was obtained from automatic analysis
of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)
images (O’Sadnick et al., 2020). Sea ice is only present in the
inner part of the fjord, so NAN was attributed to sampling sites
in the central and outer fjord. Due to the annual or less than
the annual frequency of our samplings of a large number of taxa
with different life cycles covered in this study, we used annual
means for the environmental variables that are used to potentially
explain shifts in the assemblage composition.
To identify potential temporal trends in surface temperature,
bottom temperature, surface salinity, bottom salinity, and seabed
currents a linear regression of the values over time was applied in
each pixel (800 ×800 m) (Figure 1). The slope of the regression
was printed only in the pixels with a p-value <0.1. For non-
spatialized variables (sea ice maximum extent and river runoff)
1https://www.gebco.net/data_and_products/gridded_bathymetry_data/arctic_
ocean/
2http://geo.ngu.no/download/ShoppingServlet
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FIGURE 1 | Temporal trends of the environmental variables. For spatialized data (A–E), linear regression was computed in each 800 ×800 m cell, only slopes with
p-values <0.1 are printed. For non-spatialized data (F–H), linear regression was performed on the annual mean (stratified biomass), for the inner fjord for sea ice
extent (F) and separated between inner (G) and central/outer (H) areas for river runoff.
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FIGURE 2 | Sampling sites for megabenthic taxa (A) and fish taxa (B) in the inner (green), central (yellow), and outer (red) parts of the fjord.
similar linear regressions were computed independent of pixels.
For visualization, a GAM model was also fitted.
Biological Sampling
Benthic assemblages were sampled in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010,
2014, 2016, and 2019. Each of these years, between 5 and 22
sites in total were visited at the outer, center, and inner parts
of the fjord (Figure 2). Hauls were conducted for 5 min at a
mean speed of 1.5 knots with a 2 m beam trawl (codend 4 mm)
and washed through a 5 mm sieve. The catch was then sorted,
and each taxon was counted and weighted (i.e., biomass is wet
mass). Megabenthic taxa were identified to the lowest possible
taxonomic level. However, as this was not always possible, some
taxa were nested (a species and its genus were present in the
database) (see Supplementary Table 1). Fish assemblages in the
Porsanger were sampled as part of the annual coastal ecosystem
survey in October. During 2007–2019, this survey sampled every
year between 2 and 8 sites in the fjord (Figure 2). Due to this
low number of samplings and since fish species are mobile in
the fjord, outer and central area were pooled for fish data. The
year 2008, which has only 2 sampling sites into the Porsanger was
removed from the dataset. Fish and megabenthic species (>1 cm,
Stratmann et al., 2020) were collected with a Campelen 1,800
bottom trawl, rigged with rockhopper ground gear, and towed on
double warps. Sampling effort was standardized to a fixed effort
of 15 min [equivalent to a towing distance of 0.75 nautical miles
(1.4 km)]. The horizontal opening of this trawl is 17 m, and
the vertical opening is 4 m (Engås and Ona, 1990). The mesh
size is 80 mm (stretched) in the front and 24 mm at the codend,
allowing the capture and retention of small fish and the largest
megabenthos (benthic megafauna larger than 4 mm) from the
seabed. This represents a total of 78 valid hauls.
Since the number of sampling sites varied between years
(Supplementary Figures 2A,C), a non-parametric Kruskal-
Wallis test was performed on each of the megabenthos and fish
datasets to determine if there was a significant difference in
the number of sites sampled between years. As the number of
sampling sites is low in some years, the power of the test was also
calculated with the kwpower function from the MultNonParam R
package (Kolassa and Jankowski, 2021).
Some species are not always correctly identified and were
grouped to a higher taxonomic level (i.e., Benthosema glacialis,
Myctophidae, and Myctophiformes under Myctophiformes;
Argentina silus and Argentina shyraena under Argentina;Sebastes
mentella,Sebastes norvegicus,Sebastes viviparous, and Sebastes
under Sebastes). For both fish and megabenthic taxa, to avoid
bias caused by sporadic catches of taxa that can be due to a
restricted spatial and temporal coverage of our data and/or the
non-homogenous accuracy in taxonomic identification across
different crews, only taxa occurring in more than 5% of all
sampling hauls and over more than one-third of the time series
were kept for analysis. A total of 24 fish and 71 megabenthic taxa
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were selected (the full list is given in Supplementary Table 1)
and their biomass was standardized by the area sampled during
each haul (computed from the distance trawled and the width
of the trawl). Biomass was log(x + 1)-transformed to reduce
variability caused by the catch of numerous individuals of the
same taxon that may occur for some of the fish schools or sessile
megabenthic taxa.
Temporal Trends in Biomass of the Taxa
and Biodiversity Indices
The trend of the biomass of each fish and megabenthic taxa
was computed as a function of time with a regression, in
each area of the fjord (inner, central, outer for megabenthic
taxa and whole fjords for fish taxa). Since the time series
are not very long and we are interested in trends, a simple
linear regression was computed. The stratified biomass in each
area was computed to account for the different number of
sampling sites in each area and each year (i.e., mean biomasses
for each taxa in each area and each year were multiplied by
the surface of the area and divided by the total surface of
the fjord, these weighed mean biomass were then summed to
get the total biomass of the whole fjord, Bellail et al., 2001).
For megabenthos, since each area was considered separately,
the stratified biomass was the mean biomass in each area
each year. Biomass was log(x + 1)-transformed to reduce
variability. Finally, the regression was performed on strictly
positive biomass only, as it is impossible to determine whether
a taxon was really absent in an area a specific year or if we
failed at sampling it.
Diversity indices were computed for each area for
megabenthos and for the whole fjord for fish data to characterize
the dynamics of taxa composition and the changes undergone in
the fjord in recent years. In each area for the megabenthos and
the whole fjord for megabenthos and fish, log(x + 1)-transformed
stratified biomass, log(x + 1)-transformed stratified abundance,
taxonomic richness, Shannon-Weiner diversity index that
informs on community diversity and Pielou’s evenness that
informs on the equality of biomass distribution between taxa
(Pielou, 1966) were computed. Pielou’s evenness is independent
of the number of taxa and is only influenced by the distribution
of individuals among taxa. Specifically, to follow the evolution
of the particular ecosystem in the inner fjord, the proportion of
the stratified biomass accounted by each taxon each year was
represented and the 5 taxa with the largest stratified biomass
were identified each year (see Supplementary Figure 3).
Statistical Analysis: The STATICO
Method
The STATICO analysis belongs to the ordination analysis
family that enables the study of the relationship between taxa
and their environment (Thioulouse et al., 2004). This analysis
has the particularity to handle complex relationships between
numerous taxa and environmental variables with spatially and
temporally resolved information. STATICO is based on a series
of k (number of years) times two tables: a site ×taxa table,
which provides biomass for each taxon at each site sampled,
and a sites ×environment table, which provides values for
each environmental variable at each site. To avoid placing
undue emphasis on the taxa with low frequency, Hellinger’s
transformation was applied on biomass according to Rao (1995).
Some sediment types were sampled many times while others
were not. To remove this unbalanced sampling among sediment
types (Supplementary Figures 2B,D), sediments were grouped
in three categories and coded as a numeric variable with larger
values representing larger particle sizes (mud = 1, sand = 2,
rough substrate = 3).
The first step of STATICO consists of co-inertia analysis
that combines, for each year, the sites ×taxa table with the
sites ×environments table. This yields a cross-covariance table
between taxa and environment for each year. A preliminary step
to the co-inertia analysis is to perform two normed principal
component analyses (within-PCA), to remove the effect of time:
one for the sites ×taxa table and one for the sites ×environments
table. During this step, in each of the two tables, variables
are standardized separately within each year (Thioulouse et al.,
2018). Since this step assumes a linear relationship between taxa’s
biomass and environmental variables, the relation between each
pair of taxon and environmental variables was visually verified
to be roughly linear. After the co-inertia analysis, a Monte-
Carlo permutation test of rows and columns of the taxa and
environment tables was performed, with the statico.krandtest
function from the ade4 R package (Thioulouse et al., 2018), for
each year, to test the significance of the co-variations between taxa
and environment. The second step of STATICO consists of partial
triadic analysis (PTA: Tucker, 1966;Thioulouse et al., 2018) to
analyze the series of cross-covariance tables across years.
1. The interstructure identifies similarities in the relationships
between taxa biomass and the environment between years
and enables to detect potential shift in the time series.
For each year with every other year, vectorial correlation
coefficients Rv are calculated between cross-covariance
(environments ×taxa) tables and gathered in a year ×year
Rv matrix to identify similarities between years. On
the correlation circle, the length of one arrow on the
first axis represents the weight of the cross-covariance
(environments ×taxa) table of this year in the computation
of the compromise (the averaged cross-covariance table).
The larger this length, the greater the contribution of a year
to the compromise.
2. The compromise assesses temporally stable relations
between taxa biomass and environmental variables. The
first eigenvector of the eigen analysis of the Rv matrix is
used to weight the cross-covariance tables and calculate
their weighted mean. A high weight for a given year
indicates that this year is representative of the relation
between taxa and the environment during the time series
while a low weight indicates an unusual relation this
year. Similar weights for all years indicate stable relations
between taxa and the environment. The compromise is then
calculated using a centered PCA.
3. The intrastructure assesses temporal changes in relations
between taxa biomass and environmental variables. To
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assess potential spatial patterns in taxa–environment
relations, we projected the rows (sampling sites) of the
initial sites ×taxa and sites ×environments tables onto the
compromise space as supplementary elements (Thioulouse
et al., 2018). These projections provide an overview
of annual variations in taxa–environment relations, also
called trajectories.
One STATICO analysis was run for megabenthic taxa and
one for fish taxa. At the compromise step, a K-means clustering
algorithm was applied to the taxa in the compromise space to
determine groups of taxa with a common relationship with the
environment. The number of groups was given by the Calinsky-
Harabasz criterion (Calinski and Harabasz, 1974). Taxa with the
largest biomass in each of the fjord areas were computed based on
the stratified biomass of each taxon each year. Finally, stratified
biomasses of taxa belonging, respectively, to each K-means
cluster (warm-water and cold-water taxa) were summed and
log(x + 1) transformed. A linear regression of these log(x + 1)
transformed stratified biomass of each group was fitted to
evaluate the temporal trend of their biomass. Finally, at the
intrastructure step, to disentangle the cause of the variations in
the stable variables (i.e., depth and sediment), a Kruskal-Wallis
and a Pearson’s Chi-square test were computed. This enables to
disentangle if there was a significant difference in sampling across
depth or sediments or if taxa were moving.
RESULTS
Environmental Variables
Over 2007–2019, a significant decrease in surface and bottom
salinity is visible in outer, central, and inner parts of the
fjord with a loss of 0.01–0.05 psu/year (Figures 1C,D). Seabed
current shows some significant increase of 0–0.001 m/s near the
coast of the central fjord (Figure 1E). There are no significant
trends for surface and bottom temperature (Figures 1A,B). Sea
ice maximum extent shows some decreasing trends between
2010 and 2015, but no significant decrease over 2007–2019
(Figure 1F). River runoff into the inner and medium/outer parts
of the fjord has increasing, but not significantly (Figures 1G,H).
Temporal Trend of the Biomass of Each
Taxon
For megabenthic taxa, the biomass of Norwegian shrimp
Pontophilus norvegicus shows a significant increase in the outer
fjord while the biomass of brittlestars Ophiuridae significantly
decrease in the inner fjord similarly to Island scallop Chlamys
and sea anemones Actiniaria in the central fjord (Table 1).
In addition, some non-significant trends also appear important
to be reported: red king crab Paralithodes camtschaticus have
an increase of its biomass in the inner fjord. Regarding fish,
the biomass of haddock Melanogramus aeglefinus and Atlantic
hookhead sculpin Artediellus atlanticus significantly decrease
while the biomass of redfishes Sebastes significantly increase.
A non-significant trend is also worth noting, with the decrease
in the biomass of Atlantic wolffish Anarhichas lupus in the fjord
over 2007–2019 (Table 2).
Temporal Trend of the Diversity Indices
at the Scale of the Assemblage
Taxonomic richness and Shannon diversity index significantly
increased over 2007–2019 for the fish dataset (Table 2). For
megabenthic taxa, there is a significant decrease of Pielou’s
evenness in the whole fjord, which indicates that the biomass
is becoming less evenly distributed between taxa, with the
emergence of a dominant taxon (Table 2). More specifically,
toward the end of the time series (2014 and 2019), the biomass
of the red king crab become among the 5 largest biomasses in
the inner fjord (Supplementary Figure 3). In the inner fjord,
a decrease in the abundance of megabenthos is also visible,
but non-significant. Finally, a non-significant increase in the
biomass of megabenthic taxa in the central fjord can also be
noted (Table 2).
STATICO Analysis
For both megabenthic and fish taxa, the Kruskal-Wallis tests
indicated no significant differences in the number of sampling
sites between years (for megabenthos: Kruskal-Wallis Chi-
squared = 7, p= 0.429, power = 0.999; For fish: Kruskal-Wallis
Chi-squared = 12, p= 0.446, power = 0.999).
The co-variation between taxa and environment was
significant all years, except in 2010 and 2019 for megabenthic
taxa, and in 2009 for fish. This highlights that those years the
assemblages were likely driven by other variables than those
considered in this study.
The interstructure step of the STATICO analysis quantifies
how much the relationship between taxa and environment is
similar between years. The first axis of the interstructure accounts
for the largest share of the similarity in the taxa-environment
relationship between years. For megabenthic taxa, the first
axis shows moderate common structure between years (30.0%
of explained variability) (Figure 3B), while for fish the first
axis explained more of the correlation between years (46.62%)
(Figure 3E). In addition, for megabenthic taxa, values of the
vectorial correlation coefficient Rv are moderate to low which
indicate that relation between taxa and the environment tend
to vary between years (Figure 3C). Conversely, for fish, the
relation between taxa and the environment was more stable
as shown by the moderate to high values of Rv (Figure 3F).
Similarly, the length of the arrows on the first axis of the fish
correlation circle is long and quite even (Figure 3D), indicating
relative stability of the taxa-environment relation through the
years. For megabenthic taxa, the length of the arrows on the
first axis is less even, pointing again toward the variability of the
taxa-environment relation for those taxa (Figure 3A).
The compromise analysis informs on the average relation
between taxa and environment through the time series. For
megabenthic taxa, the first axis accounts for 79.1% of the
variability in the compromise space, and the second axis 13.5%.
For fish, the first axis explains 84.6% of the variability in the
compromise space while the second axis accounts for 14.2%.
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TABLE 1 | Coefficient and p-value of the linear regression of the log-transformed stratified biomass of megabenthic and fish taxa.
Taxa Area Coefficient linear regression p-value
Megabenthic taxa
Pontophilus norvegicus Outer 1.10 ×1018.30 ×103
Actiniaria Central 3.10 ×1011.45 ×102
Chlamys Central 6.10 ×1022.22 ×102
Ophiuridae Inner 1.30 ×1013.68 ×102
Paralithodes camtschaticus Inner 8.80 ×1026.07 ×102
Astarte Outer 5.20 ×1026.78 ×102
Fish taxa
Melanogrammus aeglefinus Whole fjord 1.40 ×1018.67 ×103
Artediellus atlanticus Whole fjord 1.50 ×1023.43 ×102
Sebastes Whole fjord 1.40 ×1014.82 ×102
Anarhichas lupus Whole fjord 3.50 ×1025.16 ×102
For each taxon, the stratified biomass in each area (inner, central, and outer fjord for megabenthos and central and outer for fish) is computed, and values of 0-biomass
are removed before the regression, as it is unsure whether the taxon was absent or not detected. Only regressions with p <0.05 are shown. Regression with slightly
higher p-values (p <0.07) are also shown in gray as they can be informative as well.
TABLE 2 | Coefficient and p-value of the linear regression of the biodiversity indices (taxonomic richness, log(x + 1) transformed stratified biomass, log(x + 1) transformed
stratified abundance, Shannon diversity, and Pielou’s evenness) for megabenthic and fish taxa over time.
Biodiversity indices Area Coefficient linear regression p-value
Taxonomic richness—fish Whole fjord 6.60 ×1015.52 ×105
Shannon diversity index—fish Whole fjord 5.1 ×1029.77 ×103
Pielou’s evenness—fish Whole fjord 9.2 ×1035.26 ×102
Biomass—megabenthos Central 1.4 ×1015.86 ×102
Abundance—megabenthos Inner 1.3 ×1016.17 ×102
Pielou’s evenness—megabenthos Whole fjord 2.3 ×1022.39 ×102
Each index is computed for the whole fjord for fish and megabenthos as well as for the sub-area (inner, central, and outer) for megabenthic taxa. Regressions with
p0.05 are in black while regressions with 0.05 <p<0.07 are in gray. The corresponding regression plots are presented in Supplementary Figure 4.
In both cases, the first axis represents the strong structuring
importance of the along-fjord gradient, with the outer fjord deep
sampling sites with high values of temperature, salinity, and
currents on the left and the inner fjord shallow sampling sites
with more river runoff, and sea ice on the right (Figures 4B,D).
The second axis, in both cases, is associated with sediments, with
a gradient of grain size from the bottom to the top of the second
axis (mud, then sand, then coarse sediments). For megabenthos,
bottom salinity, followed by surface temperature, river runoff,
sea ice extent, and bottom temperature and depth are the main
drivers, while for fish assemblages it is bottom salinity, then
depth, surface salinity and surface temperature.
The clustering of the taxa along the scores on the first axis
of the compromise lead to two groups for both megabenthos,
and fish taxa (Figures 4A,C). Megabenthic taxa can be
distinguished between cold water taxa (Figure 4A, cluster 1)
associated with high values of sea ice extent and river runoff
and warm waters taxa (Figure 4A, cluster 2) associated with
high values of temperature, salinity, and current. The largest
biomass of cold-water megabenthic taxa are formed by ascidians
Ascidiacea, cookies cutter sea star Ctenodiscus crispatus, red
king crab Paralithodes camtschaticus, whelks Buccinidae, and
soft coral Nephtheidae while the largest biomass of warm
water megabenthic taxa originate from shrimps Pandalidae, sea
anemones Actiniaria, brittlestars Ophiuridae, Nephtyidae and
Sevenline shrimp Sabinea septemcarinata. Similarly, fish taxa
can also be partitioned between warm water taxa (Figure 4C,
cluster 1) associated with warm and saline deep water with
strong current and cold-water taxa (Figure 4D, cluster 2)
found in shallower waters with lower values of temperature,
salinity, and current.
The biomass of the warm-water and the cold-water
megabentic groups did not show any significant temporal
trends (Supplementary Figure 5A). It can be noted that when
removing red king crab from the cold-water taxa, no significant
trends were observed either (Supplementary Figure 5B). The
biomass of the cold-water fish taxa significantly decreased in
the whole fjord while the biomass of warm-water fish taxa did
not vary significantly over time (Figure 5). In addition, the
importance of bottom temperature as a structuring variable
of the assemblages sharply increased after 2016 (Figure 6B).
This variable was the one showing the largest variation in
its importance in structuring the assemblages (large size of
the ellipse) (Figure 6A). Conversely, for megabenthos the
structuring effect of environmental variables appears relatively
stable through the period considered (2007–2019) as indicated by
the medium size of the ellipses (Supplementary Figures 6A,B).
Fish and megabenthos taxa maintained stable relations with the
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FIGURE 3 | Interstructure analysis with correlation circle with scores for years for megabenthos (A) and fish (D).(B,E) Eigenvalues of the Rv matrix that gathers
vectorial correlation in taxa-environment covariances between 2 years). (C,F) Histogram of the Rv values between 2 years.
FIGURE 4 | Compromise analysis for megabenthos and fish. (A,C) The space of the taxa and (B,D) the space of the environmental variables.
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FIGURE 5 | Linear regression of the log(x + 1) transformed stratified biomass of fish warm-water and cold-water taxa (from the K-means clustering on the score of
the two first axis of the compromise) over time. Equation of the regression, its r2, and its p-value are printed for each group for the whole fjord.
FIGURE 6 | Intrastructure analysis for fish: (A) The yearly average position of environmental variables in the space of the compromise is the center of the ellipses and
each point is the yearly position (two last numbers of the year are printed), (B) score of the environmental variables on axis 1 of the compromise.
environment through the years (Supplementary Figures 6C–
F). For variables that do not change in time, depth and
sediments, their variations could be interpreted either because
the significantly different depth and sediments were sampled
through time or because taxa moved. For depth, there is no
significant difference in the sampled values between years (For
megabenthos: Kruskal-Wallis Chi-squared = 10.64, p-value = 0.1;
for fish: Kruskal-Wallis Chi-squared = 2.39, p-value = 0.967) as
well as for sediments (for megabenthos: Chi-squared = 12.653,
p= 0.554; for fish: Chi-squared = 2.81, p-value = 0.993) meaning
that the observed variability can be caused by taxa moving
among different sediment types and depth.
For each part of the fjord, the 5 megabenthic taxa with
the largest stratified biomass were reported: (1) for inner
fjord: cookie-cutter seastar Ctenodiscus crispatus, sea urchins
Strongylocentrotus, shrimps Pandalidae, sea urchins Echinus,
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and basket star Gorgonocephalus; (2) for central fjord: red
king crab Paralithodes camtschaticus, soft coral Nephtheidae,
shrimps Pandalidae, ascidians Ascidiacea and polychaetes worms
Maldanidae; (3) for outer fjord: sea anemone Actiniaria, shrimps
Pandalidae, hairy cockle Ciliatocardium ciliatum, brittle star
Ophiuridae and polychaetes worms Ampharetidae. Similarly, fish
taxa with the largest biomass in the whole fjord were haddock
Melanogrammus aeglefinus, cod Gadus morhua, American plaice
Hippoglossoides platessoides, whitch flounder Glyptocephalus
cynoglossus, starry ray Amblyraja radiata.
DISCUSSION
We used a complex multivariate analysis to identify the trends
of the co-variation with the environment of megabenthic and
fish taxa in a sub-arctic fjord facing both climate change effects
and invasion by red king crabs. Our results show that the
fish assemblages are increasingly driven by bottom temperature,
especially after 2016. Those assemblages are markedly changing
at the detriment of the cold-water boreal fish taxa whose
biomass significantly decreased over 2007–2019, while the
biomass of warm-water fish taxa did not show a significant
trend. In particular, we observed a significant decreasing trend
for the cold-water haddock Melanogrammus aeglefinus and
Atlantic hookhead Artediellus atlanticus. Increased taxonomic
richness and Shannon diversity index indicate that warm-
water fish species that were occasionally present in the fjord
at the beginning of the time series tend to become present
every year, toward the end of the time series. This included
argentine Argentina, blue whiting Micromesistius poutassou,
lanternfishes Myctophiformes, and round ray Rajella fyllae
(Supplementary Figure 7).
Fish and megabenthic taxa co-variated along the fjord,
discriminating between warm-water taxa present in the outer
part of the fjord, and cold-water taxa present in the central
and inner part. Such co-variation of fish and megabenthos with
environmental gradients has been mapped for the Barents Sea
(Johannesen et al., 2017) but without investigating temporal
responses to climate change between fish and megabenthic
assemblages, as done in our work. Over the studied period, the
main change in environmental variables that the taxa had to
cope with was the freshening of the water in the fjord and the
decrease of the maximum sea ice extent. This density reduction
could strengthen water stratification in the fjord, which has led to
dissolved oxygen decline in fjords in southwest Norway (Aksnes
et al., 2019). However, the rate of renewal of the deep water below
the sill in the inner basin (Askeland, personal communication)
would likely prevent the Porsanger from future anoxia. This
seems confirmed by the O2measurements realized in the whole
fjord in May 2019, with the lowest values >6.5 mmol.m3
(IMR coastal survey, unpublished data). A decrease in sea ice
maximum extent is particularly visible in 2010–2015. Yet, over
2007–2019, no significant decrease in maximum sea ice extent,
increase in surface or bottom temperature could be detected
in the fjord. However, the warming of waters along the North
Norwegian coast due to a larger penetration of warm Atlantic
waters (Asbjørnsen et al., 2020;Skagseth et al., 2020) has most
likely driven the arrival of warm-water fish species similar to what
has been reported in the Barents Sea (Fossheim et al., 2015).
With climate change and increased sea temperature,
megabenthic species composition is also hypothesized to change
toward more warm-water species (Kedra et al., 2010b). These
changes are thought to be particularly strong for arctic benthic
species that are documented to have a narrow environmental
tolerance (i.e., stenothermal species) and lower upper thermal
limit compared to arcto-boreal and boreal species (Morley et al.,
2019;Renaud et al., 2019). In the Porsanger, including in the
Arctic inner part of the fjord, no significant decrease of the
biomass of cold-water species was recorded. However, given that
we did not observe a significant increase in bottom temperature
inside the fjord, this finding might not be surprising. This lack of
a significant trend in megabenthic diversity is in line with results
from previous studies. For instance, esławski et al. (2017)
reported that marked changes in the physical environment
had little effect on the benthic fauna of two fjords of the West
Spitsbergen, because of the fauna’s adaptation to the scale of
the ongoing changes. Indeed, megabenthic assemblages might
show some degree of stability facing climate change due to
their inherent adaptive capacities to survive long periods of
seasonally low food availability (Sun et al., 2009) as well as
opportunistic feeding strategy (Iken et al., 2010;Weslawski
et al., 2011). Renaud et al. (2019), which modeled megabenthic
species habitat under an end-of-century scenario of warming and
acidification, found that mean habitat loss was small (0–11%)
and that there was no significant difference in habitat loss
between arctic and arcto-boreal species. In addition, the response
of megabenthic cold-water taxa to climate change sometimes
cannot be fully evaluated considering the environment the taxa
live in, and notably their thermic preferences. Other parameters
not considered in this study, such as metabolic characteristics,
that enable species to feed on zooplankton (Sun et al., 2009)
or macroalgae detritus (Renaud et al., 2015) instead of on
sea-ice dependent micro-algae, might also play a major role in
climate change adaptation. Lowering in size could also favor
the survival of species as it reduces their metabolic energy
demand (Garilli et al., 2015). Further, macroalgae coverage
experienced a very sharp decrease due to the burst in sea urchin
abundance that happened into the fjord from the beginning
of the 1970s following the overexploitation of Norwegian
spring-spawning herring, large cod, and saith (Larsen, 2010).
Macroalgae offer important habitats for numerous benthic
species and juvenile fish (Larsen, 2010). The recovering in the
extent of macroalgae might have been a favorable parameter
for megabenthic species that might compensate to some extent
the changes in environmental variables (decreased salinity,
increase bottom current, and decreased sea ice extent). Finally,
this lack of significant trends could also arise from bias in
our data. The patchiness of the sediments, especially in the
south-central fjord, makes it difficult to get good coverage of
the different sediment types where to follow a trend analysis
in time. Homogenous areas for long-term monitoring should
be identified and sampled every year. Further, only species
occurring in more than 5% of the sampling sites and one third
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of the years of the time series were kept in this analysis. Rare
species could provide early signals of environmental shifts and
their absence from this dataset could also explain the lack of
significant trends observed.
Climate change was also hypothesized to lead to more
homogenous benthic assemblages (Kedra et al., 2010b;Weslawski
et al., 2011). But such homogenization was not observed in
the Porsanger since there were no significant decreasing trends
of Shannon diversity for megabenthic taxa. In the whole fjord,
the significant decrease of Pielou’s evenness for megabenthic
taxa highlights that the biomass of some few taxa become
dominant through 2007–2019. The increase of red king crab
biomass in the inner fjord (non-significant), as well as its biomass
becoming amongst the 5 largest in the inner fjord from 2014,
points toward red king crab becoming a dominant taxon in the
inner fjord. Red king crabs were reported to negatively impact
the productivity and the biomass of megabenthic assemblages
(Pedersen et al., 2018). Here we observed a decrease in the
abundance of megabenthic organisms in the inner fjord, which
is a sign of red king crab impact on benthic assemblages that
was also reported by Falk-Petersen et al. (2011) in invaded
areas in the Barents Sea. The significant decrease of brittle stars
Ophuroidae in the inner fjord, as well as the one of Island
scallops Chlamys in the medium fjord, could thus originate from
the predation of the red king crabs on these taxa (Jørgensen
and Primicerio, 2007). Since its introduction, benthic taxa
composition has changed in three fjord areas in Northern
Norway including Porsanger, with a decrease of echinoderms
and most bivalves while small polychaetes prospered (Oug
et al., 2018). Some further decrease of in the abundance of
benthic taxa, especially in the cold-water assemblages in the
inner fjord, are thus expected as the red king crab continues its
progression. Red king crabs are estimated to consume between
1 and 18% of the production of benthic invertebrates in the
Porsanger (Fuhrmann et al., 2015). Søvik et al. (2020) indeed
noted the attractiveness for red king crabs of the inner fjord
since those areas were later invaded and therefore probably
contain more food. Among megabenthic taxa with the largest
biomass in the inner part of the fjord, cookie-cutter sea star
Ctenodiscus crispatus and sea urchins Strongylocentrotus are
widely distributed through the Barents Sea (Jørgensen et al.,
2015). The inner fjord megabenthic assemblage thus appears
as a mix between sub-arctic and a few arctic taxa, such as
basket stars Gorgonocephalus, Iceland scallop Chlamys islandica,
hairy cockle Clinocardium ciliatum, Northern yoldia Yoldia
hyperborean, or crangonid shrimp Sclerocrangon ferox. This is
in line with the dominance of sub-arctic (arctic-boreal) taxa
observed in the arctic fjord Hornsund (Svalbard) (Kedra et al.,
2010a). In addition, C. crispatus is a detritivore sea star feeding
on small particles that settle on the seabed. This might indicate
a weak current regime of the ecosystem with a large quantity
of detrital matter that represents C. crispatus food supply and
allow it to sustain its large population (Jørgensen et al., 2015).
C. crispatus also appears to be a prey of red king crabs (Jørgensen
and Primicerio, 2007) with the potential to eradicate it from
the area, as it happened in an adjacent fjord (Varangerfjorden)
over 1994–2007 (Oug et al., 2011). A major regime shift is
thus a potential threat for the inner cold parts of the fjord
if red king crabs continue their progression. In addition, a
decrease in the condition of red king crabs has been reported
by fishermen, at the beginning of 2021, with a large share of the
catch composed of small crabs with poor meat content where
catches were previously dominated by large crabs with good
meat content (H.K. Strand, IMR, personal communication). This
could indicate that red king crabs have reached their carrying
capacity into the fjord.
Porsangerfjorden, as other fjords in Norway and Svalbard,
has experienced significant changes in the last 40 years, with
the collapse of the spring spawning herring, cod, and saith
fishery, the burst in sea urchin that down grazed macroalgae
in the 1970s, the arrival of red king crabs in the 2000s, the
recent recovery of macroalgae (Strand, 2019) and the effects of
climate change becoming tangible. In this study, we showed that
fish assemblages changed with climate change, with an increase
of the warm water fishes (significant increase in biomass of
Sebastes and increase in the presence frequency of argentine
Argentina, blue whiting Micromesistius poutassou, lanternfishes
Myctophiformes and round ray Rajella fyllae) at the detriment
of cold-water fish (significant decrease in biomass of haddock
Melanogrammus aeglefinus and Atlantic hookhead Artediellus
atlanticus). The changes undergone by megabenthic assemblages,
on the other hand, were caused by the ongoing invasion of
red king crabs that lead to a decrease in the abundance of
megabenthic taxa and in particular brittle stars Ophiuridae
and Iceland scallops Chlamys. The cold-water megabenthic
assemblage of the inner part of the fjord should be monitored
with caution as it can be closed to the tipping point where
red king crab had overgrazed the whole assemblages and
durably disrupt their functioning. Overall, this study suggests
that invasive species, before climate change effects, would be
a major threat to megabenthic assemblages of the subarctic
and arctic fjords.
DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT
The raw data supporting the conclusions of this article will be
made available by the authors, without undue reservation.
AUTHOR CONTRIBUTIONS
LM, LJ, MS, and FV designed the study and edited the
manuscript. LJ collected the benthic invertebrate’s data. MS
provided information and codes on how to extract NorKyst800
model outputs. LM performed the statistical analysis and wrote
the first draft. All authors contributed to the article and approved
the submitted version.
FUNDING
This study was conducted in the frame of the project FACE-
IT (The Future of Arctic Coastal Ecosystems—Identifying
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Mérillet et al. Fjords ‘Biodiversity Facing Anthropogenic Impacts
Transitions in Fjord Systems and Adjacent Coastal Areas).
FACE-IT has received funding from the European Union’s
Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Program under (grant
agreement no. 869154).
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
We would like to thank all who made possible the samplings
during the coastal surveys and the benthic surveys in the
Porsangerfjord. We are grateful to Berengere Husson for her
comments on this work. We also thank Jon Albretsen for
sharing the river runoff data, Megan O’Sadnick for her insights
into sea ice formation into the Porsanger, Ingrid Johnsen
Askeland for sharing her data on the water exchanges periodicity
between the fjord and open ocean, Stig Dalsøren for his relevant
comments onto the NorKyst800 model outputs evaluation,
Hans Kristian Strand and Torstein Pedersen for sharing their
knowledge of the fjord.
SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL
The Supplementary Material for this article can be found
online at: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.
2022.822979/full#supplementary-material
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... Studies assessing the impact of climate change on alpha diversity in the Arctic Ocean remain rare. However, a positive effect of warming on fish diversity has been reported for one Arctic fjord, attributed to the introduction of warm-water species (Mérillet et al. 2022). ...
... While increasing temperatures are expected to increase alpha diversity (Mérillet et al. 2022), the question remains as to which taxa will benefit. Our sPLS regression correlated 20 MOTUs to distinct environmental states, with a cut-off of 0.3. ...
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Climate change drives species to adapt or undergo range shifts to survive. The Arctic Ocean, experiencing more drastic environmental changes than any other ocean, has two primary inflow regions that facilitate these shifts: the wide, deep Atlantic Gateway and the narrow, shallow Pacific Gateway. Environmental DNA (eDNA) surveys have proven to be effective in characterizing community composition and understanding its ecological drivers. We conducted the first COI marker‐based eDNA survey in the Pacific Gateway that analyzed seawater samples from various geographic regions, depths, and water masses across the Bering Strait, the Chukchi Sea, and the South Beaufort Sea. Metazoan taxa from 15 different phyla and indicator species for various regions and water masses were identified. We characterized a highly diverse neritic fauna in the Bering Strait and Chukchi Sea, aligning with known locations of benthic hotspots. On the slope of the Beaufort Sea, we observed transitions from copepod‐dominated epipelagic waters to cnidarian‐ and sponge‐dominated deeper areas. Alpha diversity peaked near the seabed and coastlines and was the highest within the warmest Alaskan Coastal Water mass. We linked metazoan communities to different environmental variables, with the community in the Bering Strait being associated with higher temperatures and fluorescence, and the majority of them with lower salinities. This included mostly Pseudocalanus copepod species and verongiid sponges. While rising temperatures might enhance alpha diversity, we anticipate this will primarily be due to the influx of warmer and fresher water masses. Several benthic taxa, including the bivalve Macoma calcarea and seastar Leptasterias arctica, as well as the jellyfish Chrysaora melanaster and the copepod Triconia borealis, were associated with colder, saltier waters and will likely be negatively impacted by ongoing environmental change. Our study successfully characterized changes in metazoan communities across the geographic regions and water masses within the Pacific Gateway of the rapidly changing Arctic Ocean.
... An in situ study in Kongsfjorden (W Svalbard), which compared macroalgae biomass records from 2012-2014 against those from 1996-1998, found that biomass at the 2.5 m depth had increased by 8.2 fold, and that the community had shifted to shallower waters (Bartsch et al., 2016). The two forces driving shallower shifts in macrophytobenthos biomass are: 1) Decreases in sea-ice cover (2.1) mean less ice scour and more PAR penetration at the shallow depths macroalgae like to inhabit (Fredriksen et al., 2019 and citations therein) 2) Increased turbidity, which inhibits PAR penetration (3.3) to the historically deeper range where macroalgae have been found (Bartsch et al., 2016) Demersal fish have a strong top down effect on fjord ecosystems via predation, and their distribution in fjords is strongly driven by along-fjord salinity and temperature gradients (Mérillet et al., 2022). Fjords with a sill (i.e. ...
... Due primarily to warming seawater (3.1), an increase in species richness of rocky littoral microorganisms has also been recorded on Svalbard. Similarly, fish species richness has significantly increased in Porsangerfjorden (N Norway) over 2007-2019, facilitated by reductions in sea-ice cover (2.1) and the freshening of water (3.2;Mérillet et al., 2022). ...
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Fjord systems are transition zones between land and sea, resulting in complex and dynamic environments. They are of particular interest in the Arctic as they harbour ecosystems inhabited by a rich range of species and provide many societal benefits. The key drivers of change in the European Arctic (i.e., Greenland, Svalbard, and Northern Norway) fjord socio-ecological systems are reviewed here, structured into five categories: cryosphere (sea ice, glacier mass balance, and glacial and riverine discharge), physics (seawater temperature, salinity, and light), chemistry (carbonate system, nutrients), biology (primary production, biomass, and species richness), and social (governance, tourism, and fisheries). The data available for the past and present state of these drivers, as well as future model projections, are analysed in a companion paper. Changes to the two drivers at the base of most interactions within fjords, seawater temperature and glacier mass balance, will have the most significant and profound consequences on the future of European Arctic fjords. This is because even though governance may be effective at mitigating/adapting to local disruptions caused by the changing climate, there is possibly nothing that can be done to halt the melting of glaciers, the warming of fjord waters, and all of the downstream consequences that these two changes will have. This review provides the first transdisciplinary synthesis of the interactions between the drivers of change within Arctic fjord socio-ecological systems. Knowledge of what these drivers of change are, and how they interact with one another, should provide more expedient focus for future research on the needs of adapting to the changing Arctic.
... Climate change and invasive species have been identified as emerging issues and key drivers of biodiversity loss (Bellard and Blackburn, 2016;Ricciardi et al., 2017;Blackburn et al., 2019). Arctic marine fauna has already been affected by one or both of these factors (e.g., Durant et al., 2019;Mérillet et al., 2022). While one of the aims of the present study was to quantify the spatial overlap of predicted habitat suitability of native with analogue non-native species based on known ecological interactions, the results can also contribute to the development of hypotheses of expected ecological changes, amplifying modifications to trophic cascades, resource competition, and increased habitat suitability associated with the establishment of non-native species. ...
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Climate change and related expanding shipping activity are predicted to increase the risk of aquatic invasive species arriving in the Arctic. The goal of this study was to predict the distribution of an interconnected set of native and non-native primary producers and primary and secondary consumers in this changing context. Groups of species were selected to represent a benthic coastal Arctic food web in Hudson Bay, including kelps and eelgrass as primary producers (Alaria esculenta, Agarum clathratum, Saccharina latissima, Laminaria solidungula, and Zostera marina), amphipods as primary consumers (Gammarus oceanicus and G. setosus), and fish as secondary consumers (sculpins Gymnacanthus tricuspis, Myoxocephalus scorpius, M. scorpioides, and M. quadricornis). Ensemble models were used to predict the distribution of these native and several analogue non-native species (species known to be invasive elsewhere that can be considered analogues to Hudson Bay species): Dumontia contorta, Undaria pinnatifida, Sargassum muticum, and Codium fragile (primary producers); Gammarus tigrinus (primary consumer); and Artediellus atlanticus and A. uncinatus (secondary consumers). Predicted habitat suitability of trophic groups and analogue non-native species were overlaid under current and future climate change scenarios to assess areas of change through time. The predicted direction of potential distribution shifts varies by species identity (species composition) but not trophic group. Overall trophic relationships and roles in the ecosystem are likely to be maintained over time because while some species are predicted to decrease their potential ranges (e.g., M. quadricornis), others in the same trophic groups are predicted to increase (e.g., M. scorpius). Overlap (or lack thereof) between native and analogue non-native species pairs are expected to vary through time enabling novel interactions (e.g., competition) in space and time. This approach will help to identify current and future high-risk areas for trophic level changes and interactions with invasive species in response to global warming.
... Our literature review identified only one that has explicitly assessed the impact of climate change on Arctic megafauna biodiversity. This study [83] found a positive global warming effect on fish biodiversity in an Arctic fjord in northern Norway, whereby species richness and Shannon diversity of fishes increased following the arrival of warm-water species. Other studies focused on species composition [74,84,85] as a metric for species richness. ...
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Technical Report
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ICES Report on Ocean Climate (IROC) provides summary information on climatic conditions in the North Atlantic. The full-text of IROC is available at https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.5461.
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As species distribution models, and similar techniques, have emerged in marine ecology, a vast array of predictor variables have been created and diverse methodologies have been applied. Marine fish are vital food resources worldwide, yet identifying the most suitable methodology and predictors to characterize spatial habitat associations, and the subsequent distributions, often remains ambiguous. Our objectives were to identify knowledge gaps in fish guilds, identify research themes, and to determine how data sources, statistics, and predictor variables differ among fish guilds. Data were obtained from an international literature search of peer-reviewed articles (2007–2018; n = 225) and research themes were determined based on abstracts. We tested for differences in data sources and modeling techniques using multinomial regressions and used a linear discriminant analysis to distinguish differences in predictors among fish guilds. Our results show predictive studies increased over time, but studies of forage fish, sharks, coral reef fish, and other fish guilds remain sparse. Research themes emphasized habitat suitability and distribution shifts, but also addressed abundance, occurrence, stock assessment, and biomass. Methodologies differed by fish guilds based on data limitations and research theme. The most frequent predictors overall were depth and temperature, but most fish guilds were distinguished by their own set of predictors that focused on their specific life history and ecology. A one-size-fits-all approach is not suitable for predicting marine fish distributions. However, given the paucity of studies for some fish guilds, researchers would benefit from utilizing predictors and methods derived from more commonly studied fish when similar habitat requirements are expected. Overall, the findings provide a guide for determining predictor variables to test and identifies novel opportunities to apply non-spatial knowledge and mechanisms to models.
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Plain Language Summary Recent “Atlantification” of the Arctic is characterized by warmer ocean temperatures and a reduced sea ice cover. The Barents Sea is a “hot spot” for these changes, something which has broad socioeconomic and environmental impacts in the region. However, there is, at present, no complete understanding of what is causing the ocean warming. Here, we determine the relative importance of transport of heat by ocean currents (ocean advection) and heat exchanges between the atmosphere and the ocean (air‐sea heat fluxes) in warming the Barents Sea and Fram Strait. In the ice‐free region, ocean advection is found to be the main driver of the warming trend due to increasing inflow temperatures between 1996 and 2006. In the marginal ice zone and the ice‐covered northern Barents Sea, ocean advection and air‐sea heat fluxes are found to be of interchanging importance in driving the warming trend through the 1993–2014 period analyzed. A better understanding of the recent warming trends in the Barents Sea and Fram Strait has implications for how we understand the ocean's role in ongoing and future Arctic climate change.
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Coastal ecosystems are of high ecological and socioeconomic importance and are strongly influenced by processes from land, sea, and human activities. In this study, we present physical, chemical, and biological observations over two consecutive years from three study regions along the Norwegian coast that represent a broad latitudinal gradient in catchment and oceanographic conditions (∼59–69°N): outer Oslofjord/southern Norway, Runde/western Norway, and Malangen/northern Norway. The observations included river monitoring, coastal monitoring, and sensor-equipped ships of opportunity (“FerryBox”). The riverine discharge and transports were an order of magnitude higher, and the spatiotemporal extent of this freshwater influence was larger in the coastal region in southern Norway, compared to western and northern Norway. The southern Norway coastal waters had consistently high dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and chromophoric dissolved organic matter (cDOM) fluorescence year-round, connected to the large influence of local riverine input and likely also advected riverine run-off and mixing with water masses from the southern North Sea and Baltic Sea. Meanwhile, the western and northern study regions were more sheltered and characterized by more episodic riverine input of freshwater, DOC, cDOM, and nutrients. The timing of the spring phytoplankton bloom in all three regions generally preceded the periods of high riverine input, which suggested that while the winter nutrient reserve was sufficient to fuel the spring bloom, the input of nutrients during the spring flood could sustain the spring bloom or the input of suspended matter, and DOC/cDOM could result in light limitation of the bloom. This article summarizes the impact of riverine input on three diverse coastal systems in terms timing and duration, as well as the potential consequences for ecosystem function especially as related to rising terrestrial organic matter input into coastal regions over the last decades and the projected increase due to climate change.
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Results examining variations in the ice extent along the Norwegian coastline based on the analysis of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) images from 2001 to 2019, February through May, are presented. A total of 386 fjords and coastal areas were outlined and grouped into ten regions to assess seasonal and long-term trends in ice extent. In addition, three fjords were examined to investigate how ice extent may vary over short distances (<100 km). Of the 386 outlined, 47 fjords/coastal areas held >5 km ² of ice at least once between 2001 and 2019. Over this span of time, no statistically significant trend in ice extent is found for all ten regions; however, variations between regions and years are evident. Ice extent is assessed through comparison to three weather variables – freezing degree days (FDD), daily new snowfall and daily freshwater supply from rainfall plus snowmelt. Six out of ten regions are significantly positively correlated ( p < 0.05) to FDD. In addition, ice in two regions is significantly positively correlated to daily new snowfall, and in one region negatively correlated to rainfall plus snowmelt. The importance of fjord geometry and bathymetry as well as other weather variables including wind is discussed.
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Dense water masses from the Barents Sea are an important part of the Arctic thermohaline system. Here, using hydrographic observations from 1971 to 2018, we show that the Barents Sea climate system has reached a point where ‘the Barents Sea cooling machine’—warmer Atlantic inflow, less sea ice, more regional ocean heat loss—has changed towards less-efficient cooling. Present change is dominated by reduced ocean heat loss over the southern Barents Sea as a result of anomalous southerly winds. The outflows have accordingly become warmer. Outflow densities have nevertheless remained relatively unperturbed as increasing salinity appears to have compensated the warming inflow. However, as the upstream Atlantic Water is now observed to freshen while still relatively warm, we speculate that the Barents Sea within a few years may export water masses of record-low density to the adjacent basins and deep ocean circulation. The Barents Sea cools the ocean, and dense water masses form that flow into the global overturning circulation. Hydrographic observations from 1971 to 2018 show reduced cooling efficiency with warmer Atlantic inflow, reduced sea ice and reduced wind-driven heat loss.
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Norway has complicated dynamics in the coastal ocean and in the fjords. In this area is also the largest salmon aquaculture industry in the world. The salmon industry is valuable for Norwegian economy worth more than 60 billion NOK. Thus, it is important to know the physical oceanography along the coast, even variability on short temporal and spatial scales (h/km), to be able to quantify environmental effects of the aquaculture industry. This is the motivation behind the implementation of a current model covering the whole coast of Norway with a relatively high spatial grid size of 800 m. The NorKyst800 is an implementation of the ROMS current model with an elaborated system of forcing and boundary conditions. This model has an important role for Norwegian authorities in various management purposes. We show that the NorKyst800 results are realistic and typically deviating at most by 1 °C and one unit in salinity from observations. The currents in the upper 10–20 m of the water column vary in a similar way as observed current and the agreement is good. The usefulness of a tool like the NorKyst800 is illustrated by an example of dispersion of salmon lice which is the biggest problem the salmon industry presently is facing. Detailed information, as can be provided by NorKyst800, is needed to fully understand and quantify environmental effects of the aquaculture industry. Similar modeling systems describing the planktonic salmon lice concentration operationally could be beneficial also in other salmon-producing countries like Scotland, Canada, or Chile. The major requirement will be access to updated number of fish and female lice per fish on a weekly time scale.
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Mass blooms of sea urchins sometimes cause kelp forest collapses that can last for decades. Quicklime has historically been used to reverse those conditions, but the efficacy of liming has varied along latitudinal and temperature gradients for reasons that are not fully understood. To evaluate the feasibility and ecological impacts of liming in a high latitude area in Northern Norway (70°N), we conducted a field pilot study in 2008-2011, a follow-up lab study in 2017, and a further field study in 2018-2019, with the latter evaluating and implementing the previous results in a site high in refuges. It was found that liming can reduce sea urchin densities sufficiently for macroalgal revegetation to occur, and that the mobile fauna species richness and abundance increased in the re-vegetated in comparison to the barren control fields. Also, the remaining sea urchins in the treated fields increased their roe content to commercial levels after 2 years. The lab experiments in 2017 indicated that the liming method is season/temperature-independent, as mortality remained at the same level irrespective of whether treatment started in the spring, when the sea temperatures were 2 °C, or in autumn when the temperatures were closer to 10 °C. The most important factor in treatment efficacy in the lab was particle size. With similar doses, the particles in the smallest size range (0-0.5 mm) caused 100% mortality, while the 0.5-2 mm and 2-4 mm fractions caused only 13% and 2% mortality respectively. In 2018-2019 we tested the fine CaO fraction (0.1-0.6 mm) and the medium fraction (0.5-2 mm) in a field experiment in areas characterized by high levels of refuges. Within 11 days, the sea urchin densities in the three fields treated with the fine lime were reduced to levels that theoretically should allow revegetation, but only in one of those fields was that potential partly realized after 1 year. The lack of effect in the two other fields was probably due to urchins protected by the substrate during treatment reappearing in sufficient numbers to prevent macroalgal regrowth, demonstrating that CaO treatment can be less effective on substrates where part of the sea urchin population hides among stones. Of the three variables held up as potential explanations for the different effects of CaO treatment in previous studies, we conclude based on our experiments that the presence of refuges and particle size were probably more important than temperature. Further improvements for larger scale treatments are discussed.
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In recent decades, the land-ocean aquatic continuum, commonly defined as the interface, or transition zone, between terrestrial ecosystems and the open ocean, has undergone dramatic changes. On-going work has stressed the importance of treating Aquatic Critical Zones (ACZs) as a sensitive system needing intensive investigation. Here, we discuss fjords as an ACZ in the context of sedimentological, geochemical, and climatic impacts. These diverse physical features of fjords are key in controlling the sources, transport, and burial of organic matter in the modern era and over the Holocene. High sediment accumulation rates in fjord sediments allow for high-resolution records of past climate and environmental change where multiple proxies can be applied to fjord sediments that focus on either marine or terrestrial-derived components. Humans through land-use change and climatic stressors are having an impact on the larger carbon stores in fjords. Sediment delivery whether from accelerating erosion (e.g. mining, deforestation, road building, agriculture) or from sequestration of fluvial sediment behind dams has been seriously altered in the Anthropocene. Climate change affecting rainfall and river discharge into fjords will impact the thickness and extent of the low-salinity layer in the upper reaches of the fjord, slowing the rate of the overturning circulation and deep-water renewal – thereby impacting bottom water oxygen concentrations.
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The effects of global warming are felt earlier in Arctic regions than elsewhere in the world. Now research shows that Arctic marine food webs can adapt to climate change — but the study authors warn that this impression of resilience may be false in the long term.