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South Africa: El Niño Impacts and Management in South Africa: Lessons Learned for an ‘El Niño Ready’ Nation
Abstract
South Africa is prone to drought. The country recently experienced the combined effects of a severe drought and a strong El Niño event, which led to serious impacts on livelihood conditions and economic growth. By examining the State's response to drought over time, with a specific focus on responses to the current 2016 El Niño-related drought, we expose a number of ‘sticking points’ in the response to drought and the delayed action to reduce the risks to drought impacts. Complex and seemingly bureaucratic hurdles limiting action are shown to be cumbersome factors that impede and continue to frustrate effective drought response in the country. Such bureaucratic inability to enable swift and flexible responses resulted in many NGOs and civic actors stepping up to provide assistance. As demonstrated in this research, while there are response plans and key contact departments and strategies in South Africa, these have become mired down in officialdom. Some suggest the blame lies with the State itself, and its alleged poor drought risk governance that affect recovery after drought, especially in the agricultural sector. Ineffective responses are surprising given that drought is a familiar feature and given there have been several previous cases of successes in institutional response in the past.KeywordsSouth AfricaEl NiñoDrought management
... For instance, the 2018/19 El Niño event resulted in significant losses in agricultural production in South Africa (Archer et al., 2019;Pienaar & Boonzaaier, 2018). In addition, the El Niño event affected vital economic and societal aspects, such as agricultural exports, food security and job security (Baudoin et al., 2022;Motsa et al., 2015). Therefore, to maintain agriculture productivity in the face of extreme climatic events such as El Niño, we need to optimise agriculture water use through monitoring crop water use and crop water productivity (CWP). ...
... These recurring mild droughts and the multiyear drought from 2015 to 2018 have shaped water use dynamics and CWP in the province (Botai et al., 2017). In addition, the government has intermittently implemented heightened water restrictions to manage and mitigate severe water stress in the region (Archer et al., 2019;Baudoin et al., 2022;Botai et al., 2017;Pienaar & Boonzaaier, 2018). The consistent occurrence of droughts, coupled with proactive policy interventions, could plausibly explain the absence of a significant difference in crop water use, biomass and CWP between El Niño (2018/19) and non-El Niño years (2020/ 2021). ...
... These findings underscores the remarkable adaptability of the agricultural sector to climate variability in the Western Cape region (Theron et al., 2021). These findings align with observations made by Baudoin et al. (2022) and Theron et al. (2023). In their research, Baudoin et al. (2022) and Theron et al. (2023) demonstrated how the Western Cape's agricultural productivity has adapted to severe droughts and extreme climatic events. ...
The impact of climate variability and extreme weather events on agricultural productivity in arid environments has become a focal point in contemporary research. Monitoring crop water productivity (CWP) is critical and urgently required especially in the arid regions where agriculture consumes an above-average portion of the available fresh water resources. In this context, this study aimed to demonstrate the utility of remotely sensed data in assessing CWP and water use dynamics across diverse crop types in South Africa during the El Niño (2018/19) and non-El Niño (2021/22) events. In addressing the objective, the study also assessed the intra-and inter-annual variations in crop water productivity for diverse crop types including, grains, grapes, citrus fruits, teas, planted pastures, and oil seeds. The study used potential evapotranspiration and biomass derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite to estimate CWP from 2017 to 2021. This period included El Niño (2018/19) and non-El Niño (2021/22) years. The results showed that potential evapotranspiration (PET) derived from MODIS was related to the PET estimated from weather stations (R 2 > 0.6; RMSE < 21.90; p-value < 0.001). In terms of water use, planted pastures had the highest water use 114 mm/ month), while teas and citrus fruits had the lowest water use (6 mm/month). Citrus fruits, grapes and teas consistently had the lowest annual mean crop water productivity (<0.02 kg/m 3 /annually), while oil seeds had the highest annual mean crop water productivity (>0.1 kg/m 3 /annually). Lastly, there were no significant differences (p-value > 0.05) between the CWP for all the crops observed between El Niño (2018/19) and non-El Niño (2021/22) periods, suggesting the effectiveness of adaptation measures and interventions during this period. These results provide a simple, spatially explicit framework, relevant to understanding crop-water use, laying the groundwork for informed decision-making and sustainable agricultural practices. Integrating these findings into policy frameworks and agricultural strategies is paramount for ensuring food security and resilience in a changing climate.
... The data from Thoothukudi illustrate these influences, with years of very high rainfall often coinciding with La Niña conditions, and years of less rainfall with El Niño. A considerable amount of rainfall in November 2015 occurred during a strong El Niño event, which disturbed typical weather patterns internationally [44][45][46]. Analysis of temperature and precipitation anomalies from 2001 to 2022 provides critical insights into the potential impacts of climate change on regional weather patterns, particularly in relation to the increased frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events. The temperature anomalies in the 2-m range demonstrate a gradual upward trend, as indicated by the red trendline in Fig. 4, reflecting a long-term warming pattern consistent with global climate change phenomena. ...
Waterlogging is a significant concern in urban areas and can result in severe disruptions and damage and it’s an urban problem. This study is conducted in Thoothukudi and Tamil Nadu, which are particularly sensitive to waterlogging because of their geographical and meteorological circumstances. Using synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images from 2015 to 2022, topographical analysis, land use/land cover (LULC) data, and geological insights, this research intends to identify and assess areas prone to water logging. The data source for this study comprises rainfall records from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), Sentinel-1 SAR imagery, Sentinel-2 multispectral images from the European Space Agency (ESA), and the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) Digital Elevation Model (DEM).Terrain analysis was undertaken using DEM to generate elevation, slope, and aspect maps, while SAR data were processed to extract water pixels, which included the extraction of water pixels from SAR data for each year and overlaying them. The overlaid image was correlated with topographic maps to identify the high-risk regions. Key places such as Muthayapuram, Milavittan, Bryant Nagar, and Thalamuthunagar were constantly highlighted as prone to floods. Additionally, the saltpan regions, defined by low-lying water table levels, endure continuous flooding, demonstrating the usefulness of combining SAR imaging with topographic analysis for urban water management. These findings provide useful insights for urban planners and policymakers, underlining the need for deliberate steps to reduce waterlogging, maintain public health, and minimize infrastructure damage, thus enabling sustainable development in Thoothukudi.
... The complex tapestry of El Niño's effects necessitates a unified response, and collaborative partnerships between public health agencies, disaster management authorities, and meteorological institutions are instrumental in mounting an effective defense (Ahmed and Basnayake 2022). Interdisciplinary coordination enables the pooling of expertise, resources, and data, resulting in a holistic approach to preparedness (Baudoin et al. 2022). Public health professionals, disaster responders, and meteorologists working in tandem can anticipate and address emerging health risks, formulate targeted interventions, and allocate resources strategically (Hove and Kambanje 2019). ...
Background
El Niño events disrupt atmospheric and oceanic interactions, leading to shifts in precipitation, temperature, and extreme weather events. Such alterations have the potential to exacerbate heatwaves, increase vector-borne and waterborne diseases, and compromise air quality. Understanding the connection between El Niño and public health vulnerabilities is crucial for effective mitigation and preparedness.
Main body of the abstract
This article aimed to investigate the impact of El Niño on public health and its preparedness measures. A comprehensive literature review was conducted, involving systematic searches across academic databases, scientific journals, and relevant grey literature. Inclusion criteria encompassed studies that explored the link between El Niño and public health outcomes, as well as strategies for enhancing preparedness. Thematic analysis was employed to synthesize findings and identify key themes. This article revealed that El Niño events contribute to a spectrum of public health challenges, including heat-related illnesses and compromised air quality. Vulnerable populations, such as the elderly, children, and those with pre-existing medical conditions, are particularly at risk. Early warning systems, health infrastructure readiness, communication strategies, and collaborative efforts emerged as vital preparedness measures.
Short conclusion
El Niño’s impact on public health and preparedness measures is a complex and multifaceted issue that requires a unified and proactive approach. By understanding the interplay between El Niño events and health vulnerabilities, communities can better prepare for and mitigate the health risks posed by these climatic fluctuations. Strengthened early warning systems, improved healthcare infrastructure, effective communication strategies, and collaborative efforts between various stakeholders are crucial in enhancing preparedness and safeguarding public health in the face of El Niño’s capricious influence.
This paper examines the contribution of three aggregate mining sectors of the South African economy to output and employment over the 1970-97 period. The finding of a declining importance of mining in output and employment creation must be sectorally differentiated. Gold and Uranium Mining is the chief source of these declines, while evidence for Coal and Diamond and Other Mining is more modulated. We find strong redistribution of output from equity to labour over the course of the 1990s for Gold and Uranium Mining. In mining labour markets, we present developments in employment trends, in real labour cost, and in labour productivity. We examine links between these dimensions in an explanation of changing employment trends. We conclude with a VECM estimation of a labour requirements equation to corroborate our findings
Previous drought management strategies in South Africa relied on more reactive short-term response approaches of providing post-drought relief and introducing restrictions on water supply during low-flow periods. Recent efforts have recognized the importance of adopting a more proactive approach to managing drought as an integral part of regular climate variability, and agricultural production planning and management decision-making. The new drought management plans developed and being implemented, however, make little use of economic policy instruments to promote self-reliance in managing drought risk. This chapter points to the high potential for economic policy instruments in shaping economic incentives in South Africa to induce desirable long-term drought self-adaptations, as well as sustainable farming and water and land use practices.
The production of seasonal forecasts on a routine basis in South Africa started in the early 1990s. Most of the modelling then was based on linear statistical approaches. The subsequent evolution of the seasonal forecasting enterprise in South Africa included the development of seasonal forecasting expertise and the enhancement of complex modelling systems which include the implementation and administration of atmospheric global and regional circulation models, empirical downscaling, multi-model ensembles, ocean-atmosphere coupled model development, and applications of forecasts. The International Research Institute for Climate and Society has made telling contributions to this evolution over the past 20 years and these will be highlighted here.
A more complete picture of the timing and patterns of the ENSO signal during the seasonal cycle for the
whole of Africa over the three last decades is provided using the normalized difference vegetation index
(NDVI). Indeed, NDVI has a higher spatial resolution and is more frequently updated than in situ climate
databases, and highlights the impact of ENSO on vegetation dynamics as a combined result of ENSO on
rainfall, solar radiation, and temperature.
The month-by-month NDVI–Ni~no-3.4 correlation patterns evolve as follows. From July to September,
negative correlations are observed over the Sahel, the Gulf of Guinea coast, and regions from the northern
Democratic Republic of Congo to Ethiopia. However, they are not uniform in space and are moderate (;0.3).
Conversely, positive correlations are recorded over the winter rainfall region of South Africa. In October–
November, negative correlations over Ethiopia, Sudan, and Uganda strengthen while positive correlations
emerge in the Horn of Africa and in the southeast coast of South Africa. By December with the settlement of
the ITCZ south of the equator, positive correlations over the Horn of Africa spread southward and westward
while negative correlations appear over Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and South Africa. This pattern strengthens
and a dipole at 188S is well established in February–March with reduced (enhanced) greenness during ENSO years south (north) of 188S. At the same time, at ;28N negative correlations spread northward. Last, from April to June negative correlations south of 188S spread to the north (to 108S) and to the east (to the south of Tanzania).
The standardized precipitation index allows for monitoring the intensity and spatial extent of droughts at different time scales. We used it to do a retrospective analysis of the spatial extent of droughts in Southern Africa (South of 10°S), from 1901 to 1999. Accordingly, the 8 most severe droughts at the 6-month scale (October-April) for the summer rainfall region of Southern Africa ended in 1916, 1924, 1933, 1949, 1970, 1983, 1992 and 1995. At the 2-year scale, they ended in 1906, 1933, 1983, 1984, 1992, 1993, 1995 and 1996. Areas affected by those droughts ranged from 3.4 to 2 106 km2. Eight of those 12 years are El Niño years. Preliminary data indicates that 2001/2002, 2002/2003 and 2003/2004 experienced severe droughts at a number of scales. This confirms the increase in the spatial extent of drought in Southern Africa since the 1970's due to stronger ENSO Southern African rainfall relationship
Whereas the impact of ENSO on the African summer rainfall regions is largely documented and still regularly investigated, little is known about its impact on the winter rainfall regions located at the southwestern and northwestern tips of Africa. Yet, these regions are densely inhabited and are net exporters of high-quality agricultural products. Here we analyze the relationship between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and South Africa austral winter rainfall using a 682 raingauges daily rainfall database documenting the period 1950-1999. The May, June and July (MJJ) seasonal rainfall amount shows a positive correlation with the Niño3.4 index that becomes significant since the so-called 1976/1977 climate regime shift. Wet spells properties (length, frequency and intensity) at the raingauge scale indicate that high (low) MJJ seasonal rainfall amounts recorded during El Niño (La Niña) events are the result of longer (shorter) wet spells in the Cape Town area and more (less) frequent wet spells north of 33 °S. Wet spells with daily rainfall amounts ranging between 10 and 50 mm are also more (less) frequent. Atmospheric dynamics fields during wet spells feature lower (higher) pressure and northwesterly (southerly) wind anomalies in the troposphere over the region. This suggests that rain-bearing systems are deeper (thinner) and larger (smaller) in extent, and located farther north (south) during El Niño (La Niña) events.
The skill of global-scale sea surface temperature forecasts using a statistically based linear forecasting technique is investigated. Canonical variates are used to make monthly sea surface temperature anomaly forecasts using evolutionary and steady-state features of antecedent sea surface temperatures as predictors. Levels of forecast skill are investigated over several months' lead time by comparing the model performance with a simple forecast strategy involving the persistence of sea surface temperature anomalies. Forecast skill is investigated over an independent test period of 18 yr (1982/83–1999/2000), for which the model training period was updated after every 3 yr. Forecasts for the equatorial Pacific Ocean are a significant improvement over a strategy of random guessing, and outscore forecasts of persisted anomalies beyond lead times of about one season during the development stages of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation phenomenon, but only outscore forecasts of persisted anomalies beyond 6 months' lead time during its most intense phase. Model predictions of the tropical Indian Ocean outscore persistence during the second half of the boreal winter, that is, from about December or January, with maximum skill during the March–May spring season, but poor skill during the autumn months from September to November. Some loss in predictability of the equatorial Pacific and Indian Oceans is evident during the early and mid-1990s, but forecasts appear to have improved in the last few years. The tropical Atlantic Ocean forecast skill has generally been poor. There is little evidence of forecast skill over the midlatitudes in any of the oceans. However, during the spring months significant skill has been found over the Indian Ocean as far south as 20S and over the southern North Atlantic as far north as 30N, both of which outscore persistence beyond a lead time of less than about one season.
Southern African rainfall does not show any trend to desiccation during the 20th century. However, the subcontinent experienced particularly severe droughts in the 1980s and at the beginning of the 1990s and the magnitude of the interannual summer rainfall variability shows significant changes. Modifications of the intensity and spatial extension of droughts is associated with changes in ocean–atmosphere teleconnection patterns.
This paper focuses mostly on the well-documented 1950–1988 period and on late summer season (January–March). A principal component analysis on southern African rainfall highlights modifications of the rainfall variability magnitude. The 1970–1988 period had more variable rainfall, and more widespread and intense droughts than the 1950–1969 period.
To investigate the potential modifications of the associated ocean–atmosphere teleconnection patterns, a composite analysis is performed on sea-surface temperature (SST) and National Center for Environmental Protection (NCEP) atmospheric parameters, according to the 5 driest years of both sub-periods. Significant changes are shown in ocean–atmosphere anomaly patterns coincident with droughts for both sub-periods. The 1950–1969 droughts were associated with regional ocean–atmosphere anomalies, mainly over the southwest Indian Ocean region. In contrast, during the 1970–1988 droughts near-global anomalies were observed in the tropical zone, corresponding to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon.
Within the whole century, significant correlations between Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and southern African Rainfall Index (SARI) were found in the periods (1900–1933 and 1970–1998) when SOI and SARI experienced high variability, and when southern Africa was affected by intense and extended droughts. During periods of low SOI (1934–1969), correlations became less significant and droughts were less intense and widespread. Copyright
Analysis of 149 raingauge series (1946–1988) shows a weak positive correlation between late summer rainfalls (January–March)
in tropical southern Africa and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The correlation coefficients have been unstable since
World War II. They were close to zero before 1970 and significant thereafter. Before 1970, southern African late summer rainfalls
were more specifically correlated with regional patterns of sea surface temperature (SST), mainly over the southwestern Indian
Ocean. After 1970, teleconnections with near global SST anomaly patterns, i.e. over the central Pacific and Indian oceans,
dominate the regional connections. The increase in the sensitivity of the southern African rainfall to the global SO-related
circulation anomalies is simultaneous with the correlation between SOI and more extensive SST anomalies, particularly over
the southern Indian Ocean. This feature is part of longer term (decadal), global SST variability, as inferred from statistical
analyses. Numerical experiments, using the Météo-France general circulation model ARPEGE-Climat, are performed to test the
impact of the observed SST warming in the southern Indian and extratropical oceans during El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
events on southern African rainfall. Simulated results show that ENSO events, which occurred in the relatively cold background
of the pre-1970 period in the southern oceans, had a little effect on southern Africa climatic conditions and atmospheric
circulation. By contrast, more recent ENSO events, with warmer SST over the southern oceans, lead to a climatic bipolar pattern
between continental southern African and the western Indian Ocean, which is characterized by reduced (enhanced) deep convection
and rainfall over the subcontinent (the western Indian Ocean). A weaker subtropical high-pressure belt in the southwestern
Indian Ocean is also simulated, along with a reduced penetration of the moist southern Indian Ocean trade winds over the southern
African plateau. These results are consistent with the strong droughts observed over all southern Africa during ENSO events
since 1970.
Rainfall variability and changes in Southern Africa over the 20th century areexamined and their potential links to the global warming discussed. After a shortreview of the main conclusions of various experiments with Global AtmosphericModels (GCM) forced by increased concentrations of greenhouse gases for SouthernAfrica, a study of various datasets documents the observed changes in rainfall featuresat both daily and seasonal time steps through the last century. Investigations of dailyrainfall parameters are so far limited to South Africa. They show that some regionshave experienced a shift toward more extreme rainfall events in recent decades.Investigations of cumulative rainfall anomalies over the summer season do notshow any trend to drier or moister conditions during the century. However, closeexamination reveals that rainfall variability in Southern Africa has experiencedsignificant modifications, especially in the recent decades. Interannual variabilityhas increased since the late 1960s. In particular, droughts became more intense andwidespread. More significantly, teleconnection patterns associated with SouthernAfrican rainfall variability changed from regional before the 70s to near global after,and an increased statistical association to the El Nio – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is observed. Numerical experiments with a French GCM indicate that these changes in teleconnections could be related to long-term variations in the Sea-Surface-Temperature background, which are part of the observed global warming signal.
We analyze changes and fluctuations in sea surface temperature at the monthly scale around the South African coastline from 1982 to 2009.. There is a statistically significant negative trend of up to 0.55°C per decade in the Southern Benguela from January to August. Cooling trend of lesser magnitude is observed at the South Coast from May to August. This is due to an increase in upwelling favorable southeasterly and easterly wind. Positive trend in sea surface temperature of up to 0.55°C per decade occurred in most part of the Agulhas Current system at all months of the year except for KwaZuluNatal. El Nino Southern Oscillation is significantly positively correlated at the 95 % level with Southern Benguela and South Coast from February to May and negatively correlated with the Agulhas Current system South of 36°S. El Nino suppresses upwelling along the coast while La Nina increases it. Although, there does not seem to be a linear relationship between strength of ENSO and magnitude of coastal SST perturbation, El Nino and La Nina appear to be linked with major warm and cool events at the seasonal scale in late summer in the Southern Benguela and the South Coast. A word of caution is given on low resolution reanalyzed climate data (ERA40 and NCEP) and optimally interpolated Reynolds sea surface temperature used here.
Drought is a persistent, creeping challenge for many countries in southern Africa defying neat definitions. Droughts usually occur somewhere in South Africa during any year. The more recent drought (2014–2016) has harshly reminded people of the need to be more proactive about droughts. Given this repetitive occurrence of drought, South Africa, has a long history and an interesting governance tradition of how droughts are framed and managed. A historical, comparative assessment of the role of the State and other institutional architectures in drought-risk reduction is provided. Attempts in the 1990s, for example, to widen the framing and scope of the drought challenge, with the creation of the National Consultative Drought Forum, resulted in some success in drought risk reduction. Many of the more inclusive approaches and inroads gained by this forum were picked up and continued by the National Disaster Management Act. A sustained central focus on an inclusive drought risk reduction approach has, however, not been fully sustained. Building on the National Consultative Drought Forum’s more inclusive approach and vision of holistic drought risk reduction, the case for the creation of more inclusive, permanent and participatory social learning arenas are advocated.
Pursuing a ‘natural-social scientific’ approach, I argue that constraints and opportunities provided by nature play a major role in South Africa's energy policy. Presently, the country's coal-dominated energy sector stands at a critical juncture. In order to overcome electricity shortages and provide a basis for economic growth, coal-fired power generation will have to expand. Regional cooperation on gas reserves and hydropower, a nuclear build-up programme at home and renewable energy constitute alternative strategies for South Africa to achieve energy security. I bring together natural conditions and social factors, reasoning that energy policy is largely determined by path-dependent developments. Path-dependent developments begin at critical junctures, where natural conditions and social factors jointly induce a course for the future that is extremely difficult to alter at a later point of time. Natural constraints and opportunities have received little attention in existing research but being aware of them helps us to better understand the present state of South Africa's energy sector and to assess the feasibility of envisaged strategies.
Severe droughts in southern Africa are associated with livelihood impacts, a strain on local economies, and other hardships. Extensive effort has been spent in the past trying to improve responses to periods of extensive drought. There have also been renewed calls for improvements to climate change adaptation by adopting more proactive governance and disaster risk reduction approaches. Few efforts, however, have been made to assess how to learn more from past drought efforts so as to enhance overall resilience to future drought risks. Few have examined the role and contributions of institutions and drought governance, either across spatial scales [from regional (i.e., Southern African Development Community) to national scales (e.g., South Africa) to the very local scale (e.g., Limpopo Province, South Africa)] or across temporal scales (over at least 100 yr). Despite calls for better risk management approaches at all levels, this paper illustrates two points. First, a failure to fully understand, integrate, and learn from past efforts may undermine current and future drought response. Second, state-led drought risk reduction, which remains focused on a financial "bail-out" mentality, with little follow-through on proactive rather than reactive drought responses, is also seriously contributing to the vulnerability of the region to future drought impacts.
Summer rainfall over the central area of southern Africa is known to be modulated with the phase changes of the Southern Oscillation such that rainfall is above normal during high-phase (cold event) and below normal during low-phase (warm event) summers. This relationship holds for the period 1935–1986; the temporal stability of Southern Oscillation–southern African rainfall associations on longer time-scales has not been tested. A documentary-derived rainfall chronology has been developed for the southern parts of the summer rainfall area for the 100-year period 1820–1920, enabling the extension of the rainfall record backward some 60 years before reliable meteorological records are available for the region. Comparison of the documentary series with both early Southern Oscillation chronologies and earliest southern African rainfall records suggests that the nature of the relationship between summer rainfall over the subcontinent and the Southern Oscillation has remained essentially unaltered since at least 1820.
A multi-tiered forecast procedure is employed to simulate real-time operational seasonal forecasts of categorized (below-normal, near-normal and above-normal) streamflow at the inlets of twelve dams of the Vaal and upper Tugela river catchments in South Africa. Forecasts are made for the December to February (DJF) season over an 8-year independent period from 1987/1988 to 1994/1995. A physically based model of the atmosphere system, known as a general circulation model (GCM), is used to simulate atmospheric variability over southern Africa, the output of which is statistically downscaled to streamflow. The GCM used is the COLA T30, and is forced at the boundary with predicted monthly-mean global sea-surface temperatures. The monthly-mean sea-surface temperature fields are first predicted over lead-times of several months using a canonical correlation analysis (CCA) model. GCM simulations are then obtained for an area including most of southern Africa and adjacent oceans. The GCM simulations are downscaled to catchment level from coarse resolution gridded climate variables, using a perfect prognosis approach: bias-corrected GCM simulations are substituted into the perfect prognosis equations to provide the downscaled categorized streamflow forecasts. Although surface characteristics of each catchment that affect the variability of streamflow are not considered in the proposed downscaling system, successful forecasts of streamflow categories were obtained for some of the years forecast independently. The scheme's operational utility is thus demonstrated, albeit over short lead-times.
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