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Forest Bioeconomy and Climate Change
Abstract and Figures
Climate change, global population growth, declining natural resources and the loss of biodiversity challenge us to move towards a global bioeconomy, based on the sustainable utilisation of renewable natural resources in the production of energy, products and services. The linear economic model based on fossil raw materials and products is coming to an end. Major global agreements and policy goals––the Paris Climate Agreement and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals––have given a mandate for our economic model to be changed. There is the need for a new economic paradigm that will place the basis for human prosperity within the planetary boundaries. One essential part of this new paradigm has to be a forest-based circular bioeconomy.
The shift to this bio-based economic paradigm should be a long-term strategy for decoupling economic growth from climate change and environmental degradation. Developments in science and technology are laying the foundations for the bioeconomic age. Bio-based products have already emerged that can substitute for fossil- based materials, such as plastics, chemicals, textiles, cement and many other materials. Now, the big question is how to turn these scientific and technological successes into a global economic paradigm shift, and in a sustainable way. This requires us to look at the potential synergies and trade-offs that such a change will inevitably bring and how these can be integrated with the economic, ecological and social goals of society.
Right now, we know that climate change will take place in this century, although there is uncertainty as to the degree of disruption it will bring. It will have an impact on forests. Like humans, trees are mortal. Climate change threatens to increase the mortality rate of trees. Disturbances, such as droughts, fires, storms and bark- beetle outbreaks, have already become stronger, more extensive and more damaging. This trend requires us to adapt to climate change and to build resilience in our forests against climate change. So, how can we do this?
These themes and questions are the focus of this book, which builds upon recent scientific evidence concerning forests and climate change, and examines how the development of a forest bioeconomy can help to address the grand challenges of our time. In the book, experts analyse the economic, ecological and social dimensions of forests and climate change, along with the basis for, and shaping of, a forest-based bioeconomy, and the links between these. In this way, it provides information on the potential of forests and forest-based products to help in mitigating climate change, and the types of measures that can be taken to adapt forests to climate change, thereby building forest resilience. The book outlines a climate-smart forestry approach, based on three main objectives. First, reducing net emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Second, adapting and building forest resilience to climate change. Third, sustainably increasing forest productivity and economic welfare based on forestry. The climate-smart forestry approach is illustrated by case studies from Czech Republic, Finland, Germany and Spain––countries that have quite different forests and forest sectors. Finally, we suggest the types of policy measures required to address the challenges of developing, and increase the opportunities associated with, a sustainable forest bioeconomy.
To the best of our understanding, this is the first book devoted to examining the links between climate change and a forest bioeconomy, and outlining the need for a climate-smart forestry approach to address the many needs we have for forests. The book is directed at forest- and environment-sector stakeholders and decision- makers, as well as the research community, the broader education sector and the media.
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... Both in terms of forest management (Seppälä et al., 2019;Strengers et al., 2024) and the replaced materials (decarbonizing economy). While European forests have seen an increase in carbon stock over the last few decades, acting effectively as a carbon sink (Kilpelainen and Peltola, 2022), the future development of sequestration and storage is highly dependent on both forest management (Nabuurs et al., 2017;Kilpelainen and Peltola, 2022) and climate change effects (Kilpelainen and Peltola, 2022). The latter includes disturbances such as droughts as seen in recent years. ...
... Both in terms of forest management (Seppälä et al., 2019;Strengers et al., 2024) and the replaced materials (decarbonizing economy). While European forests have seen an increase in carbon stock over the last few decades, acting effectively as a carbon sink (Kilpelainen and Peltola, 2022), the future development of sequestration and storage is highly dependent on both forest management (Nabuurs et al., 2017;Kilpelainen and Peltola, 2022) and climate change effects (Kilpelainen and Peltola, 2022). The latter includes disturbances such as droughts as seen in recent years. ...
... Both in terms of forest management (Seppälä et al., 2019;Strengers et al., 2024) and the replaced materials (decarbonizing economy). While European forests have seen an increase in carbon stock over the last few decades, acting effectively as a carbon sink (Kilpelainen and Peltola, 2022), the future development of sequestration and storage is highly dependent on both forest management (Nabuurs et al., 2017;Kilpelainen and Peltola, 2022) and climate change effects (Kilpelainen and Peltola, 2022). The latter includes disturbances such as droughts as seen in recent years. ...
The main goal of the LCA performed here is the quantification of “net carbon removal efficiencies” of a range of CDR methods applying LCA methodology. Designing the LCA models in a parameterized way allows us to represent a broad range of boundary conditions in terms of for example geographical scope, energy supply options, transport modes and distances, etc., and to investigate the impact of different parameter settings on the LCA outcomes and thus the carbon removal effectiveness. The scope of the LCA here is limited to Direct Air Carbon Capture and Storage (DACCS) – low-temperature solid sorbent and high-temperature solvent based –, Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) – using wood and municipal waste as fuels –, biochar applied as soil amendment, enhanced rock weathering, and ocean liming. Qualitative discussion, including an outline for a consistent framework for accounting for biogenic CO2 fluxes, is performed for temporal storage of biogenic carbon by using wood as construction material. We perform attributional LCA of single, hypothetical CDR units, as if implemented and operated today, based on the currently available knowledge.
... Dentro de esta bioeconomía circular, se espera que el sector forestal desempeñe un papel importante al suministrar la materia prima y los servicios necesarios (Commission, 2022;Freer-Smith et al., 2019), además de ser el principal hábitat de la biodiversidad terrestre, el mayor sumidero de carbono terrestre y la principal fuente terrestre de precipitación (Hetemäki et al., 2022). Desde esta perspectiva, el sector forestal tiene una relevante contribución que realizar (Hetemäki et al., 2022;Palahí et al., 2020), ya que la producción de biomasa leñosa como fuente de energía y/o bioproductos es fundamental para la transición hacia sistemas de energía sostenible (Scarlat et al., 2015). ...
... Dentro de esta bioeconomía circular, se espera que el sector forestal desempeñe un papel importante al suministrar la materia prima y los servicios necesarios (Commission, 2022;Freer-Smith et al., 2019), además de ser el principal hábitat de la biodiversidad terrestre, el mayor sumidero de carbono terrestre y la principal fuente terrestre de precipitación (Hetemäki et al., 2022). Desde esta perspectiva, el sector forestal tiene una relevante contribución que realizar (Hetemäki et al., 2022;Palahí et al., 2020), ya que la producción de biomasa leñosa como fuente de energía y/o bioproductos es fundamental para la transición hacia sistemas de energía sostenible (Scarlat et al., 2015). ...
Las plantaciones de chopos, manejadas a alta densidad y rotaciones cortas (SRC), logran una alta productividad en un tiempo reducido, esencial para la producción de biomasa y la captura de carbono a corto y medio plazo. Ambos son pilares fundamentales para avanzar hacia una bioeconomía baja en carbono. Esta tesis destaca la importancia de la biomasa lignocelulósica obtenida de plantaciones de chopo como materia prima clave para el desarrollo de la bioeconomía, buscando optimizar su rentabilidad. Para lograr este propósito, uno de sus objetivos es desarrollar herramientas predictivas más precisas y sensibles al clima en respuesta a restricciones de agua. Otro objetivo crucial es evaluar la viabilidad económica considerando la multifuncionalidad y los servicios ecosistémicos que ofrecen, explorando cómo estas contribuciones pueden potencialmente impulsar la transición hacia una bioeconomía baja en carbono. Los datos se obtuvieron de una amplia red de parcelas de plantaciones de chopo SRC en la península, que abarca un total de 30 localidades en las que se han testado 48 genotipos diferentes. Así como una plantación de chopo SRC específicamente establecida para obtener parámetros mensuales. Esta tesis doctoral aporta herramientas predictivas sensibles al clima, así como herramientas de evaluación de viabilidad económica, cuantificando uno de los servicios ecosistémicos más demandados en la actualidad: la captura de carbono. Estas contribuciones buscan mejorar la eficiencia de las plantaciones y ofrecer soluciones sólidas y adaptadas al contexto del cambio climático y las exigencias del mercado.
... tion is also evident for the world's forest (Hetemäki et al. 2022) and marine ecosystems (Pauly and Zeller 2016). ...
This guide provides a structured methodology for developing and critically assessing strategies for sustainable food and biomass production through a participatory and systemic approach. It responds to the limitations of mainstream policies and strategies in agriculture and bioeconomy, which often prioritize technological solutions and lack bottom-up engagement of local stakeholders in knowledge-building and decision-making.
The PARSCO methodology presented in this guidebook is an adaptation of the MARISCO toolbox (Adaptive MAnagement of vulnerability and RISk at COnservation sites) developed at the Centre for Econics and Ecosystem Management. It has been tailored to assess and improve food and biomass production systems based on local knowledge, diverse stakeholder perspectives, and a systemic situation analysis using knowledge mapping and multi-criteria analysis tools. PARSCO is a landscape-based method primarily designed for application in local or regional settings, involving a series of participatory workshops with local stakeholders. It was developed over a period of five years at Eberswalde University for Sustainable Development and tested in workshops with smallholder farmers and other local actors in rural Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Pakistan.
The guidebook serves as a step-by-step manual for practitioners, planners, and transdisciplinary researchers applying PARSCO in project planning, policy evaluation, and sustainable land management. It emphasizes the importance of systemic thinking—understanding the interconnectedness and complex dynamics of social-ecological systems—and participatory decision-making to ensure inclusive, effective, and context-specific solutions. As a standalone guidebook, it can also be used as a complementary resource to existing MARISCO guides by offering more detailed guidance on the facilitation of participatory processes.
... In Fennoscandian forests, conifers often grow with two white birch species, Betula pendula Roth (silver birch) and B. pubescens Ehrh. (downy birch) (e.g., Hetemäki et al. 2022). Both species are considered critical for enhancing biodiversity (Nieuwenhuis and Barrett 2002; Kuuluvainen et al. 2017;Salemaa et al. 2023) and soil nutrient mineralization in the nutrient-poor northern ecosystems (Kanerva and Smolander 2007;Kanerva et al. 2008;Mikola et al. 2018). ...
The acclimation capacity of Betula pendula and Betula pubescens was studied over 4 years in common gardens in central Italy (43° N) and southern (61° N) and northern Finland (67° N), representing drastically different photoperiod and climate in temperate, boreal and subarctic vegetation zones. Two study sites that differed in soil fertility were established at each location, giving a total of six common gardens. The birch material was micropropagated from naturally regenerated stands of B. pendula and B. pubescens from Susa Valley and Rochemolle Valley in northern Italy, Punkaharju in southern Finland and Kittilä in northern Finland. The plants were measured for height growth, stem diameter, leaf chlorophyll content, leaf herbivory and pathogen damage. The effects of soil fertility on the common garden results were also analyzed. The results showed high acclimation capacity of B. pendula and B. pubescens after a long-range transfer from southern to northern Europe, despite the major shift in climate and photoperiod. First-year growth on average was best in boreal southern Finland for all origins. Betula pendula grew more than B. pubescens in Italy and southern Finland, while B. pubescens grew more in northern Finland and better tolerated the northward transfer. The height growth of origins showed a clear latitude gradient from slowly growing northern to fast growing southern origins in the nursery and laboratory, but not in the field. Soil fertility explained a significant part of variation among locations not only for growth variables, but also for leaf chlorophyll content and leaf herbivory and pathogen damage. Leaf herbivore and pathogen damage was greatest in southern Finland. Our results demonstrate good survival of birch from northern Italy in Finnish conditions and support the possibility of long-range south-to-north transfer of Betula species to provide resistant planting material in boreal forests for the rapidly changing climate.
... Development of a sustainable bioeconomy to accelerate mitigation and adaptation to climate is particularly relevant for Africa which is warming faster than the global average (Oguntuase & Adu, 2021). Circular bioeconomy, through enhancing and sustainable management of renewable natural resource capital, creates an opportunity to combat climate change and improve environmental health and agricultural productivity while also contributing to economic growth and job creation (Hetemäki & Kangas, 2022;IICA, 2019). For instance, practices such as cultivating on degraded land, regenerative land use, natural pest control, appropriate multi-cropping, and soil and water conservation measures increase agricultural productivity while also contributing to climate change mitigation (IPCC, 2019). ...
European spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus L., SBB) infestations are extending in northern Europe due to increases in temperature and drought, which increase the risk of outbreaks in Norway spruce (Picea abies L.) forests. The severity of SBB damage may be decreased by timely detection and management measures. In this study, we analysed the SBB infestation levels of trees, the overall SBB damage at the stand level, the relationship between SBB damage and stand characteristics, and the effect of an outbreak over time on the volume and basal area in managed and conserved areas. We visually observed SBB symptoms at the stem level (entrance-exit holes, resinous flows, bark damage) and crown level (defoliation, discoloration) in 60 sampling plots in south-eastern Finland. These plots were established in an SBB outbreak area triggered by a severe wind disturbance in August 2010. Data were collected in 2014–2017 in conserved areas and in 2019–2021 in both conserved and managed areas. The results showed that in conserved areas, 70% of the trees were already highly infested in 2015, reaching 90% in 2017. During 2019–2021, the conserved areas were significantly more damaged than the managed ones. The volume of the stands decreased over time on average by 80% in conserved areas and 40% in managed areas, with the highest decrease occurring six to seven years after the initial SBB colonization. The damage estimated based on resinous flows and entrance-exit holes was similar regardless of the year or treatment. Our detection method may be used to support timely risk assessment and management of SBB outbreaks and decrease damage at the landscape level.
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Disturbances by bark beetles and subsequent salvage logging affect forest carbon (C) stocks. Although deadwood retention is recognised to maintain soil organic C (SOC), the effects of standing deadwood vs. salvage logging on soil properties are poorly understood.
This study examines C stocks and soil biochemistry at 21 low-elevation Norway spruce forests 1–3 years after disturbance in the Czech Republic. One third of the stands served as undisturbed control, one third remained dead standing, and one third was salvage logged.
The litter C stocks of salvaged plots were immediately reduced to 2.8±0.8 Mg C ha-1, whereas the litter and topsoil C stocks of dead standing plots decrease from 26.8 and 43.8 Mg C ha-1 to 4.4 and 24.9 Mg C ha-1, respectively, over the first three years. Consequently, the topsoil C stocks were ~24% lower at the dead than those of the salvaged plots. NH4+-N contents increased two- to three-fold following dieback but decreased to the level of control within the third year. Extracellular enzyme stoichiometry indicated lower organic topsoil C and P microbial limitations at salvaged plots.
Our results highlight the rapid dynamics of SOC pools following spruce forest dieback and a marked redistribution of SOC towards topsoil layers when salvaged. Thus, the incorporation of harvest residues and/or changes in soil microbial processes prevented a significant decrease in SOC stocks due to logging. Although deadwood retained higher ecosystem C stocks at the unlogged plots, detailed data on SOC dynamics are required for managing forests to maximise C stocks.
Environmental policy and the expansion of the bioeconomy sector has led to increased demand for wood and wood products, pressuring forests. In order to meet additional demand, foresters must either intensify forest management practices or alter forest area. One of the more observable shifts in forest management comes in the form of changes in land use or land cover. Yet despite the many short- and long-term consequences of land-use change, the environmental impacts of it are less explored in forestry than in agriculture. In this paper, we conduct a literature review over the period between 1993 and 2022 to better understand how the notions of land-use and land-cover change are included in environmental impact assessments related to the production of wood and wood products. Specifically, we identified five categories of impacts studied and found a surprising dichotomy in terminology between land-use/land-cover change and changes in forest management practices. We present general trends in the methods and indicators used and discuss potential methodological and conceptual challenges inherent to this literature. Our results are particularly important in light of the growing popularity of land-use and land-cover data in research, as we highlight how they have been integrated into existing environmental impact assessment methods and how we can improve them going into the future.
Projecting forest dynamics as a function of alternative management strategies and climatic conditions is key to develop sound forest policy and management planning. In Spain there is a need for a full set of climate-sensitive individual-tree growth and yield models suitable for country-level simulations. In this paper we present environmentally driven models for forest stand dynamics based on distance-independent individual-tree growth and yield. The data for model calibration are based on the second, third and fourth surveys of the Spanish National Forest Inventory, including 50,359 plots and 838,620 trees, representing a broad gradient in forest types and environmental conditions. The results develop a total of 182 models for diameter increment, height increment, total height, survival and ingrowth for 27 species and species groups. The models are integrated into a full forest projection system to perform simulations of forest dynamics and resulting changes in the provision of ecosystem services, including the effects of climate, and forest management. Its potential is illustrated through an array of simulations of forest dynamics in the region of Catalonia under alternative climatic and management scenarios. The resulting models and projections provide a solid basis for the simulation of national or regional climate-sensitive forest scenarios, with the possibility of being applied to other regions, and may be used for future management and planning efforts.
Norway spruce (Picea abies Karst. (L.)) in the boreal zone can be managed as even-aged or uneven-aged stands, or be grown with no management at all. Here, we investigated how these management options affect carbon dynamics, particularly the carbon stocks in the forest ecosystem (trees and soil), and albedo, and their combined effect on radiative forcing compared to a reference case, clear-cut site before planting seedlings. This allowed us to assess the potential of different management regimes to mitigate global warming. We ran long-term simulations under the current climate on a sub-mesic site in central Finland (62oN) using an eco-physiological forest-ecosystem model. Compared to even-aged management, no management (old-growth forest) increased ecosystem carbon stocks by 47 per cent and decreased albedo by 15 per cent, whereas uneven-aged management reduced ecosystem carbon stocks by 16 per cent and increased albedo by 10 per cent. Only the no management option resulted in a significant net cooling effect whereas for even-aged and uneven-aged management, the opposing effects of changes in albedo and carbon stocks largely cancelled each other with little remaining net effect. On the other hand, the latter one even made a small net warming contribution. Overall, maintaining higher ecosystem carbon stocks implied the larger cooling benefits. This was evident even though lower albedo enhanced radiation absorption, and thus warming. Increasing use of the no management option by forest owners may require proper incentives such as compensation for lost harvest incomes.
Abiotic forest disturbances are an important driver of ecosystem dynamics. In Europe, storms and fires have been identified as the most important abiotic disturbances in the recent past. Yet, how strongly these agents drive local disturbance regimes compared to other agents (e.g., biotic, human) remains unresolved. Furthermore, whether storms and fires are responsible for the observed increase in forest disturbances in Europe is debated. Here, we provide quantitative evidence for the prevalence of storm and fire disturbances in Europe 1986–2016. For 27 million disturbance patches mapped from satellite data, we determined whether they were caused by storm or fire, using a random forest classifier and a large reference dataset of true disturbance occurrences. We subsequently analyzed patterns of disturbance prevalence (i.e., the share of an agent on the overall area disturbed) in space and time. Storm‐ and fire‐related disturbances each accounted for approximately 7% of all disturbances recorded in Europe in the period 1986–2016. Storm‐related disturbances were most prevalent in western and central Europe, where they locally accounted for >50% of all disturbances, but we also identified storm‐related disturbances in south‐eastern and eastern Europe. Fire‐related disturbances were a major disturbance agent in southern and south‐eastern Europe, but fires also occurred in eastern and northern Europe. The prevalence and absolute area of storm‐related disturbances increased over time, whereas no trend was detected for fire‐related disturbances. Overall, we estimate an average of 127,716 (97,680–162,725) ha of storm‐related disturbances per year and an average of 141,436 (107,353–181,022) ha of fire‐related disturbances per year. We conclude that abiotic disturbances caused by storm and fire are important drivers of forest dynamics in Europe, but that their influence varies substantially by region. Our analysis further suggests that increasing storm‐related disturbances are an important driver of Europe's changing forest disturbance regimes.
Ceccherini et al.1 reported an abrupt increase in harvested forest—in terms of both biomass and area—in Europe from 2016, and suggested that this reflected expanding wood markets encouraged by the bioec- onomy policies of the European Union (EU). They used Global Forest Watch2 and GlobBiomass3 data together with an analysis that sought to remove natural disturbances from forest losses, which overall resulted in estimates of 49% for the increase in harvested forest area and 69% for the increase in harvested forest biomass. We argue that the reported changes reflect analytical artefacts, with inconsistencies in the for- est change time series, misattribution of natural disturbances as har- vests, and a lack of causality with the suggested bioeconomy policy frameworks. There is an urgent need to re-examine available forest information that can accurately and reliably inform the ongoing policy discussions in the framework of the EU Green Deal, particularly the upcoming post-2020 EU Forest Strategy.
Background
There are high estimates of the potential climate change mitigation opportunity of using wood products. A significant part of those estimates depends on long-lived wood products in the construction sector replacing concrete, steel, and other non-renewable goods. Often the climate change mitigation benefits of this substitution are presented and quantified in the form of displacement factors. A displacement factor is numerically quantified as the reduction in emissions achieved per unit of wood used, representing the efficiency of biomass in decreasing greenhouse gas emissions. The substitution benefit for a given wood use scenario is then represented as the estimated change in emissions from baseline in a study’s modelling framework. The purpose of this review is to identify and assess the central economic and technical assumptions underlying forest carbon accounting and life cycle assessments that use displacement factors or similar simple methods.
Main text
Four assumptions in the way displacement factors are employed are analyzed: (1) changes in harvest or production rates will lead to a corresponding change in consumption of wood products, (2) wood building products are substitutable for concrete and steel, (3) the same mix of products could be produced from increased harvest rates, and (4) there are no market responses to increased wood use.
Conclusions
After outlining these assumptions, we conclude suggesting that many studies assessing forest management or products for climate change mitigation depend on a suite of assumptions that the literature either does not support or only partially supports. Therefore, we encourage the research community to develop a more sophisticated model of the building sectors and their products. In the meantime, recognizing these assumptions has allowed us to identify some structural, production, and policy-based changes to the construction industry that could help realize the climate change mitigation potential of wood products.
