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Quarantine Economics:
Is Lockdown Eective
and How Much Does It Cost
Andrew Vorchik
1
AV
Abstract
The paper presents a model of city stricken by epidemic. We count for-purpose
and by-chance meetings happening to its citizens and derive formal relations of
economic and epidemiological states of the city during quarantine. Theoreti-
cal factorization of disease reproduction number allows us to classify possible
protective measures and evaluate their relative eectiveness in mitigating the
epidemic. Lockdown and remote work turn out to be most eective. In the nal
part of the paper we study economic consequences of quarantine and partially
disprove the health-wealth trade-o. We show that severity of lockdown aects
duration, but not the time-averaged depth of the crisis.
AV
Keywords: COVID-19, eective reproduction number,
lockdown, coronacrisis, health-wealth trade-o.
JEL: I180.
Moscow and
Σ𝜅´𝛼𝜆𝛼 Φ𝑜´𝜐𝜌𝜅𝛼𝜍.
October 2021. For the latest version click here.
1
ICEF, HSE University. Moscow, Russia. Email:
vorchik.a@gmail.com
. Website:
AndrewVorchik.com
.
The author is grateful to professor Roman Zakharenko for valuable advice.
1Андрей Ворчик