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International trade standards and competitiveness of the chemical wood pulp and conifer sawn wood sectors do Brazil and Chile front of major world exporters
Abstract
Given the importance that the forestry sector plays in the economy of several countries and considering the magnitude of world demand, it is understood that the participation of the forestry-based sector in the market is below its potential. The main objective of this research was to analyze the competitiveness of Brazil and Chile in the conifer sawn wood (CSW) and Chemical Wood Pulp (CWP) international market, through revealed symmetric comparative advantages (RSCA) and volume (in tons) exported compared to the world's largest exporters of these products. Brazil and Chile were chosen because they are the two main producers and exporters of these products in Latin America. Furthermore, linear regression analysis techniques were used to explain the factors that supported this competitiveness. The results of the RSCA index showed that for conifer sawn wood there are different patterns of competitiveness among the analyzed countries. For the CWP sector, Brazil is the world's leading exporter, and the RSCA indices showed that Brazil with high dynamism and Chile with lower competitiveness in the CWP sector. The results of the regression analysis to assess competitiveness via exported volume for both conifer sawn wood and CWP proved inconclusive for Chile. In relation to Brazil, the results for the exported volume of wood suggest a dependence on the US interest rate. We thus conclude that the results were probably affected by the volatility of the data analyzed from countries or sectors for which there are factors other than those considered in this study. Furthermore, Canadian pulp exports are influenced by the Brazilian price, not the other way around.
... Thus by 2021 Brazil's production of wood pulp had increased to 23.09 million tonnes, demonstrating a GGR of 7.35% per year between 1961 and 2021. Competition between Canada and Brazil has been intense, from an export perspective: after the world's main importer, China, the US is the second largest importer, buying 16.18% of its wood pulp from Brazil and 38.99% from Canada (da Silva and Maciel 2022). ...
... The significant impact of Brazilian production on the wood-pulp industry was highlighted by da Silva and Maciel (2022), who cited Brazil's physical and natural conditions as a major factor in the steady expansion of the national market between 1981 and 2021, when Brazil rose from sixth place in the productive ranking in 2005 to second place in 2021. Da Silva and Maciel also point to Chile's success in pulp production and exports, even if at lower levels than Brazil's. ...
... The countries participating in the CR(4) were the US, Canada, Sweden (1961-1974, 1979, 1984, 1986-1988, 1991-1996, 2000-2004, 2006-2016), Finland (1961-1965, 1966-1983, 1985, 1989-1999, USSR (1975-1990) and Brazil (2008-2016. Evidently, the countries participating in the CR(4) represented robust forestry production chains, whether for sawn wood, the production of cellulose or the production of pellets for energy, as shown by Trømborg et al. (2013) (for the US, Sweden and Finland); by Bogdanski (2014) (for Canada), and by da Silva and Maciel (2022), and Soares et al. (2021) for Brazil. From 1961to 1984 was classified as high concentration for 90% of the time, while the number of producing countries was between 44 and 54. ...
Wood pulp is one of the main products of forestry worldwide, being a necessary intermediate product for all types of paper produced. In order to understand the market dynamics of this product, this study analyses the global concentration of the wood-pulp production from 1961 to 2021 using data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). To measure the degree of concentration, the following indicators were used: concentration ratio [CR(fc)], the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), the Theil Entropy Index (E), the Hall and Tideman Index (HTI), the Comprehensible Concentration Index (CCI) and the Gini Coefficient (G). A decreasing tendency in the concentration of the world production of wood pulp was verified, but the concentration is still classified as intense. The inequality was also strongly verified by the G, but also with a downward tendency. The participation of major producers is also decreasing. This trend of reduced concentration is explained by the increase in the number of countries producing wood pulp. This study concluded that the environmental and technological conditions of the management of planted forests restrict the participation of many of the countries producing wood pulp.
... Segundo Perez e Bacha (2006), até o início da década de 90 o país produzia quantidade suficiente para o consumo interno, não havendo expressiva exportação, contudo a realidade se alterou a partir de 1992, quando a quantidade produzida excedeu de forma a proporcio- países, pode-se concluir que "o único momento em que as produções nacional e mundial apresentaram o mesmo comportamento, em relação a volume, foi entre 2007 e 2009, compreendendo a crise econômica mundial" (KLOCZKO et al., 2018, p. 564;MACIEL, 2022). Ainda para estes autores, a situação brasileira é desfavorecida nesta produção porque além de enfrentar a crise mundial, precisou lidar com fatores internos que desfavorecem sua competitividade: deficiência na infraestrutura rodoviária, burocracia dos órgãos reguladores, elevadas taxas de juros e tributos. ...
... Suécia apresenta-se em segundo lugar no início dos anos 2000, mas é ultrapassada pela Rússia e pelos Estados Unidos a partir da década 2010. Para esses países o crescimento do comércio mundial é importante para explicar o aumento das exportações de madeira serrada, assim como a competitividade e o crescimento do comércio com os países aos quais destinam-se suas exportações(NOCE et al., 2003;MACIEL, 2022). ...
Este trabalho analisou a competitividade brasileira e dos principais exportadores mundiais de madeira serrada, de 1990 a 2020. Além do Brasil, foram estudados os principais exportadores mundiais: Canadá, Rússia, Suécia, Estados Unidos e Finlândia. As análises foram realizadas com os indicadores Vantagem Comparativa Revelada, Posição Relativa de Mercado, Indicador de Contribuição do Saldo Comercial, Taxa de Cobertura e Comércio Intraindústria. Os resultados indicaram que o Canadá se destaca em termos de competitividade, assim como a Finlândia. O Brasil apresentou-se como uma nação competitiva no mercado internacional de madeira serrada nos últimos anos, mesmo não tendo apresentado os maiores índices de competitividade nesse mercado.
... No contexto em que o Brasil figura como o principal exportador mundial de celulose (DA SILVA; MACIEL, 2022;IBÁ, 2022), é crucial que o setor florestal mantenha sua competitividade global, uma vez que foi justamente essa competência que impulsionou o crescimento das exportações brasileiras de celulose (PEREIRA; SILVA JÚNIOR, 2024). A aplicação da inteligência competitiva proporciona análises de mercado, identificação de tendências e otimização de processos, fortalecendo a posição competitiva e impulsionando um crescimento sustentável. ...
A inteligência competitiva (IC) é um processo de coleta e análise de informações estratégicas que permite compreender o mercado, identificar oportunidades e mitigar riscos, tornando-se assim uma prática fundamental para organizações tomarem decisões informadas e manterem vantagens competitivas. Apesar do potencial promissor na indústria florestal, seu uso ainda é limitado. Nesse sentido, o objetivo do presente trabalho é apresentar conceitos, técnicas e perspectivas da IC na indústria florestal. A implementação da IC no setor florestal ainda é incipiente, apesar de seu grande potencial em práticas como análise de mercado, monitoramento da concorrência, gestão de recursos naturais, inovação e tomada de decisão estratégica. Logo, o uso da IC já é uma realidade e é essencial para múltiplas organizações, proporcionando insights valiosos, otimizando processos e garantindo competitividade no mercado. No setor florestal, contudo, seu uso ainda é incipiente e deve ser objeto de atenção para aquelas empresas que desejam se manter competitivas no mercado.
... Chile is one of the few Latin American countries that have reversed the persistent loss of forest cover through the establishment of forest plantations [20]. This has positioned the country as one of the leading global exporters of paper and pulp [21]. However, this achievement requires highly intensive forestry activity, characterized by monocultures of exotic species (mainly Pinus and Eucalyptus) with short rotation cycles, typically harvested through clear-cutting [22]. ...
Forestry operations and climate variability affect hydrologic response and sediment transport. Management of forested catchments under intense forestry activity in areas under climatic stress is critical. This study analyzes the impact of forest operations (thinning and clearcutting) on runoff (Q) and suspended sediment loads (SSL) in three small catchments (named N02, N03 and N04, respectively) in south-central Chile, where rainfall has decreased by 20% since 2010. Using modified double mass curves and piecewise regression, we separated the effects of forest practices and climate. Thinning in N02 initially reduced Q and SSL, with stable Q overtime, while final harvest in N03 and N04 increased Q, although less than expected. SSL surged post-harvest: 3.6 times in N03 and 1.8 times in N04, potentially linked to hillslope instability. Major SSL events contributed over 55% of post-harvest sediment yield in both catchments, with maximum yields reaching 7.2 tons ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ in N03 and 4.1 tons ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ in N04. SSL recovered to pre-harvest levels by the third year, except during a rainy year. Management practices likely contributed to lower SSL and faster recovery. These findings improve our understanding of catchment responses to forest practices and climate change, aiding sustainable forest and water resource management.
... According to Silva et al. (2022), export is a positive consequence of applying CE practices, which is in line with the results of the present study. Brazil is considered one of the most dynamic countries in pulp and paper exports (Rossato et al., 2018). ...
Link:
https://authors.elsevier.com/a/1i9C53QCo9j3kK
... In addition, the trade balance index (TBI) was measured to evaluate the trade balance and to create a production map (Rossato et al., 2018). Some authors, including Balassa (1965), have argued that prices should be considered when measuring comparative advantage (Ishchukova and Smutka, 2013;Silva and Maciel, 2022). Thus, it was decided to include testing the prices with an econometric analysis on three different comparative advantage approaches. ...
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the global competitiveness of the top ten wooden furniture exporting countries with several approaches and to test the effect of export prices (EXPRs) on the global competition.
Design/methodology/approach
Countries' competitiveness levels were measured with revealed comparative advantage (RCA), normalised RCA (NRCA), revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) and trade balance index. Furthermore, panel regression analysis techniques were used to test the effects of EXPR on RCA, NRCA and RSCA in the wooden furniture industry (WFI).
Findings
Although the comparative advantage approaches give different results, the global competitiveness of Poland and Vietnam is at a high level in all approaches. Canada has been the country with the weakest global competitiveness in all approaches. According to the results of the analysis, EXPRs positively affect all the competitive advantage indexes. As a result, the competitiveness of the WFI is affected by the non-price factors instead of the EXPR.
Research limitations/implications
The framework allows us to measure and illustrate the export competitiveness of the WFI and permits a global comparison. Similar analyses can be made for different labour-intensive sectors. In addition, analysis can be made to identify non-price factors for the WFI sector. Thus, more specific inferences can be made.
Practical implications
This study is useful for policymakers, government officials, the industry associations and the company executives to assess their export competitiveness in the WFI. Thus, they can determine whether to shift scarce resources to this industry or other industries. In addition, this study may affect the price competition policy of the sector representatives in the global market.
Originality/value
This study deals with the competitiveness of the WFI with different approaches. And this study determines the importance of price for global competition in this sector.
... Currently, forest certification has become one of the important criteria for setting forest management standards [12] and represents a commitment to environmental responsibility [13]. Although countries have different comparative advantages in forest products due to their different resource endowments [14], trade measures in target markets, such as tariff and non-tariff trade barriers, weaken the international competitiveness of forest products [15]. The green trade measures represented by forest certification brought both opportunities and challenges for China's export of forest products. ...
Forest certification as a typical green trade measure has been gradually adopted by developed countries. Although it can promote the upgrading of forest products’ trade structure, it also threatens the stability of export growth. However, most studies have focused on the impact of forest certification on the total volume of forest product exports, but less on the impact on the growth structure. This study used the cross-country panel data and an extended gravity model to empirically analyze the impact of forest certification on the ternary margins of China’s forest products export to 39 countries that have introduced green trade measures from 2006 to 2019. The results show that the growth of China’s export of forest products is primarily driven by the quantitative margin, followed by the price margin. Forest certification in the trading partner countries has a significant positive impact on the price margin and a significant negative effect on the quantitative margin of China’s forest products. Furthermore, the effect on the quantitative margin is greater than that on the price margin, while the impact on the extensive margin is not significant. The study provides a scientific basis for responding to the forest certification measures, deepening cooperation with trading countries on forest products, and strengthening the mutual recognition and coordination of forest certification systems.
The development of the world economy has prompted various countries to pay more attention to the teaching of online international trade courses based on deep learning. In the Internet age, online teaching has become an essential way for people to receive education. To guide the public in obtaining high-quality online teaching resources related to international trade, we propose an evaluation method for the implementation of international trade online courses based on deep learning. Firstly, by analyzing the characteristics of online education in international trade courses, we decompose the evaluation methods of online courses in international trade. Then, using deep learning technology, we propose a fusion method of multimodal evaluation features of online courses in international trade. Finally, we design a classification model to realize the effect evaluation of the course by inputting the fused features. Experiments show that our method can accurately evaluate the effect of international trade online courses, with an accuracy of 78.53%.
2021 by the authors. Esta revista oferece acesso livre imediato ao seu conteúdo, seguindo o princípio de que disponibilizar gratuitamente o conhecimento científico ao público proporciona maior democratização mundial do conhecimento. Este manuscrito é distribuído nos termos da licença Creative Commons-Atribuição-NãoComercial 4.0 Internacional (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/legalcode), que permite reproduzir e compartilhar o material licenciado, no todo ou em parte, somente para fim não comercial; e produzir, reproduzir, e compartilhar material adaptado somente para fim não comercial. RESUMO Procedeu-se ao cálculo de indicadores do comércio internacional com o objetivo de analisar o desempenho das exportações brasileiras de celulose e identificar as suas principais fontes de crescimento, no período de 2008-2017. Os resultados indicam vantagens comparativas reveladas para as exportações brasileiras de celulose. Os principais mercados de direcionamento do produto foram a China, Estados Unidos da América, Holanda e Itália. Quanto às fontes de crescimento, o modelo Constant Market Share indica o efeito competitividade como a principal fonte de crescimento, nos dois primeiros períodos de análise, enquanto o efeito crescimento do comércio mundial teve maior relevância no terceiro período. ABSTRACT International trade indicators were calculated with the aim of analyzing the performance of Brazilian pulp exports and identifying their main sources of growth during the 2008-2017 period. Results indicate that Brazilian exports presented revealed comparative advantages. The main destination markets were China, the United States of America, the Netherlands, and Italy. As for the growth sources, the Constant Market Share model indicates that the competitiveness effect was the main source of growth in the first two periods of analysis, while the world trade growth effect became more relevant in the third period. Introdução No setor do agronegócio, o Brasil é um importante player mundial sendo que, no segmento da indústria de florestas plantadas, pela sua eficiência de mercado, grande competitividade, inovação e sustentabilidade, constitui uma referência no mercado global. De acordo com a Indústria Brasileira de Árvores (IBÁ) (Ibá, 2022), o Produto Interno Bruto brasileiro (PIB) cresceu 4,6%, em 2021, mas o valor adicionado do setor florestal cresceu 7,5%, um valor muito superior à evolução do PIB nacional realçando a relevância deste setor o qual, representou, em 2021, 1.2% do PIB (Ibá 2022,18), assumindo, também, uma posição de destaque no desenvolvimento de uma economia verde e sustentável (Ibá, 2022). As árvores plantadas são utilizadas para produzir, entre outros produtos, celulose, papel, carvão vegetal, pisos laminados, biomassa, e desempenham um papel importante para atenuar os impactos negativos da ação humana no ambiente, ajudando a regular o
Procedeu-se ao cálculo de indicadores do comércio internacional com o objetivo de analisar o desempenho das exportações brasileiras de celulose e identificar as suas principais fontes de crescimento, no período de 2008-2017. Os resultados indicam vantagens comparativas reveladas para as exportações brasileiras de celulose. Os principais mercados de direcionamento do produto foram a China, Estados Unidos da América, Holanda e Itália. Quanto às fontes de crescimento, o modelo Constant Market Share indica o efeito competitividade como a principal fonte de crescimento, nos dois primeiros períodos de análise, enquanto o efeito crescimento do comércio mundial teve maior relevância no terceiro período.
The rapid-developed scale of China’s trade in wood forest products has undergone a considerable uptick. Concomitant with the evolution of high-quality development paradigms, product quality within trade frameworks has gained escalating scrutiny. Based on the statistical analysis of the export characteristics of China’s wood forest products, this study leverages BACI data spanning from 1998 to 2017. Utilizing regression-based inverse methods, the study quantifies the quality attributes of these export products, dissects fluctuations in quality, and places particular emphasis on the markets within “Belt and Road Initiative” economies to elucidate dynamic trends and spatial distribution characteristics of export quality in this geoeconomic domain. Based on this, the fixed effect model, random effect model, and system GMM are used to empirically examine the influencing factors of China’s wood forest product export quality. This study found that wood-based panel products have the highest quality, followed by paper products and wood furniture among the three major categories of wood forest products. Besides, the overall quality levels of the three products exported to countries participating in the Belt and Road initiative haven’t significantly changed, while notable changes are evident across divergent export destination markets. In addition, an empirical study on the influencing factors of the export product quality of wood forest products is conducted, which indicates that total factor productivity, R&D investment, capital intensity, labor costs, and foreign direct investment are influencing factors. Finally, based on the research conclusions, suggestions are provided on how to improve the export quality of wood forest products.
O objetivo principal desta pesquisa foi analisar a competitividade da Argentina, Bolívia, Brasil, Chile, Colômbia, Equador, México, Paraguai, Peru, Suriname e Uruguai no mercado de madeira serrada, por meio de índices de vantagem comparativa revelada (VCR) e vantagens comparativas reveladas simétricas (VCRS) e volume (em toneladas) exportado para o resto do mundo. Destacando que o foco das análises foi Argentina, Brasil, Chile, México e Uruguai por serem os principais exportadores de MS e terem disponibilidade robusta de dados para análise. Os resultados do índice VCR mostraram que para a madeira serrada existem diferentes padrões de competitividade entre os países analisados.
O objetivo principal desta pesquisa foi analisar a competitividade da Argentina, Bolívia, Brasil, Chile, Colômbia, Equador, México, Paraguai, Peru, Suriname e Uruguai no mercado de celulose, por meio de índices de vantagem comparativa revelada (VCR) e vantagens comparativas reveladas simétricas (VCRS) e volume (em toneladas) exportado para o resto do mundo. Brasil e Chile foram escolhidos devido a disponibilidade de dados e por serem os dois principais produtores e exportadores desse produto na América Latina. Os resultados do índice VCR mostraram que para o setor de celulose, o Brasil é o maior exportador da América Latina e perda de competitividade do produto chileno.
Wood is a complex material whose main chemical constituents are cellulose, hemicellulose, and lignin. These components are studied in various industries after the wood has been processed by chemical or mechanical methods. For the paper industry, it is relevant to determine the pentosan content in cellulose pulp because it indicates the degree of retention of hemicellulose. Hemicellulose contributes to the resistance, increasing the yield of the pulp, and therefore, high pentosan content is desirable. In this way, this research focused on the determination of the pentosan content in hard and softwood pulps between 0.81 to 18.4%. The pentosan content can be directly determined by a chemical method, although these conventional methods are long, expensive, generate a high amount of corrosive waste, and are not recommended for routine analysis. Therefore, in this research, an alternative method was developed using near-infrared spectroscopy together with partial least squares regression to predict the pentosan content in pulps. This new method is fast, inexpensive, analysis is direct and non-destructive. Finally, the pentosan calibration model was validated by cross-validation and the predicted external samples were quantified with precision between 0.008 and 0.043 and accuracy between 3.9 and 12.2%, while SEP has a variability of 1.267% of pentosan for this model.
Invasive exotic plant species plays a key role in changing symbionts’ community composition and soil biochemical traits into invaded areas. Our aim was to figure out whether the P. taeda alters the AMF community and soil biochemical traits when compared with a natural ecosystem and an agroforestry system of the Southern Brazil. We found the highest values of litter deposition, total nitrogen, AMF richness, Shannon’s diversity, Simpson’s dominance, root colonization, and plant P content on plots with P. taeda. By using the structural equation modelling, we found that the P. taeda positively affected the abundance of C. claroideum, C. etunicatum, F. mosseae, and Glomus sp., root colonization, plant P content, and litter deposition, and negatively affected Olsen’s available P, soil organic carbon, and microbial biomass carbon. The results of our study highlighted the importance of considering monostands of P. taeda with high AMF richness and Shannon’s diversity. Thus, long-term experiments considering areas dominated by an invasive exotic plant species, and areas under an assisted forest regeneration (agroforestry systems) may exploit interesting results in subtropical conditions.
Diante da adoção de um sistema de taxas de câmbio flutuante, após a quedado sistema monetário Bretton Woods, vários países passaram a experimentar o aumento da variabilidade da taxa de câmbio, com diversas consequências para as suas economias. O objetivo central deste estudo consiste em analisar o efeito da volatilidade dataxa de câmbio sobre o comércio brasileiro a nível setorial, dito diferentemente, sobre acomposição da pauta de exportação brasileira. Para tanto, considera-se o volume exportado do Brasil para seus principais parceiros comerciais no período de 2001 a 2017, e, posteriormente, realiza-se uma classificação dos produtos em três categorias (básicos, semimanufaturados e manufaturados). A par¬tir de tal agrupamento, a composição da pauta de exportação é definida pela participação de cada categoria de produto no total do volume exportado para os respectivos parceiros. Adicionalmente, essa variável éutilizada como dependente em um modelo gravitacional de comércio, o qual é estimado usando-se os métodos de mínimos quadrados ordinários agrupado, econometriade painel e Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood. Os resultados obtidos indicam que avolatilidade cambial tem um efeito adverso apenas sobre o setor de manufaturas, comefeito positivo nas exportações de produtos básicos e nenhum efeito significativo sobreo comércio de produtos semimanufaturados.
RESUMO: Este trabalho buscou analisar o padrão de especialização das exportações do Mercosul, identificando os setores produtivos mais dinâmicos, no período entre 2007 e 2014. Neste sentido, calcularam-se os indicadores de Contribuição ao Saldo Comercial (ICSC), de Comércio Intraindústria (CII) e de Concentração Setorial das Exportações (ICS). Os dados foram coletados no site da Secretaria de Comércio Exterior-SECEX. Os resultados indicaram que a pauta exportadora continua a ser predominantemente composta por setores baseados em recursos naturais. Com isso, foi possível constatar que os setores especializados no comércio internacional são os que apresentam vantagens comparativas convencionais, embora tenha se verificado a existência de comércio intraindústria em setores específicos. Palavras-chave: Exportações; Comércio Internacional; Competitividade. ABSTRACT: This study aimed to analyze the pattern of specialization of exports from Mercosur, identifying the most dynamic productive sectors between 2007 and 2014. In this sense, the contribution to the trade balance indicator was calculated, as well as the intra-industry trade rate and the sectoral concentration of exports indicator. Data were collected from the Foreign Trade Office-SECEX. The results indicated that the export basket continues to be predominantly composed of sectors based on natural resources. Thus, it was established that the sectors specialized in international trade are those with conventional comparative advantages, although it was verified the existence of intra-industry trade in specific sectors.
Recognition of the competitiveness of various export commodities is important in the design of industrial policies which shapes a country's structural transformation. The commonly used approach is the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) which was introduced by Balassa in 1965. Over the years, Balassa's RCA has received a lot of criticism with improvement effort related to its consistency (ranking bias). This study therefore aims to examine the possibility of improving the RCA prediction power, while adhering to the principle of simplicity in the calculation as well as convenience in dealing with data availability. The calculation is conducted by selecting the products included in the analysis using the two steps approach. This examination revealed that the selection limited to top 250 export products (from 1,259 products in HS 4-digit), it is able to correct (restore) the position of Indonesian manufacturing sector. As a competitive sector (RCA> 1) it reflects the position of the sector as top 10 export, based on its share (export value). This approach also provided a new hint into Indonesia's export in Chinese market, especially after the implementation of the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement in 2010.
This paper provides an analysis of Balassa’s ‘revealed comparative advantage’ (RCA). It shows that when using RCA, it should be adjusted such that it becomes symmetric around its neutral value. The proposed adjusted index is called ‘revealed symmetric comparative advantage’ (RSCA). The theoretical discussion focuses on the properties of RSCA and empirical evidence, based on the Jarque–Bera test for normality of the regression error terms, using both the RCA and RSCA indices. We compare RSCA to other measures of international trade specialization including the Michaely index, the Contribution to Trade Balance, Chi Square, and Bowen’s Net Trade Index. The result of the analysis is that RSCA—on balance—is the best measure of comparative advantage.
The BRICS have emerged as a major global force in the global economic arena, with the balance of economic
power shifting dramatically towards Asia over the next decades. With 43 percent of the world’s population, 46%
of the global labour force, 30% of the earth’s landmass and 25% of the world share of GDP, the BRICS countries,
apart from complementing their respective economies in terms of resource exchange are also the major suppliers
to the industrial world. With a cumulative global trade of 20 per cent and generating more than 40 per cent of global
economic growth, the BRICS countries, and India specifically as a prominent global leader in trade, are poised to
strengthen their relationship through intra-BRICS trade. Between 2001 and 2014 intra-BRICS trade increased nearly
15 times. It is increasing at an average rate of 28 percent annually and currently for USD 300 bn and also the bilateral
investment flows among BRICS countries are also on rise - the total FDI inflows into BRICS reached a peak of US$
322 billion in 2013. In this context the present paper makes an attempt to assess the intensity of trade relations
between the BRICS countries and further hypothesize the potentiality of commodity trade among them with respect
to 14 distinct sectors. The Study observes that the BRICS countries are complimentary rather than competitive to
each other in the various sectors analyzed and presents a greater potential of multilateral trading regime among
them which could accelerate the South-South trade
The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the effect of exchange rate volatility on the extensive margin of international trade. In methodological terms, we defined as the extensive margin of international trade, the number of products exported by countries to their trading partners. Later, this variable was specified as dependent variable on a gravity model of trade, whose parameters were estimated by nonlinear panel data. The period of analysis in this work was from 1995 to 2009 and the number of countries considered in the study was 54. The results indicate that an increase in the volatility of the exchange rate causes a reduction on the extensive margin of international trade. © 2014, Instituto de Pesquisas Economicas da FEA-USP. All rights reserved.
This paper studies the issue of revealed comparative advantage in the case of the Russian foreign trade in agricultural products and foodstuffs. The objective of this study is to analyze specialization and the competitive performance of the Russian agricultural sector and to determine whether or not patterns of comparative advantage for Russia have undergone significant changes over the period 1998–2010.
The analysis is performed using several measures of revealed comparative advantage: classical Balassa’s index, Vollrath’s index and Lafay index.
Balassa’s index identified a group of products, which has relatively stable comparative advantage during the whole period. Among those products we can count cereals (wheat, barley, etc.), their by-products (for example bran of wheat) and products of their processing (cereals preparations, etc.), as well as oilseeds, vegetable oils and chocolate.
Vollrath’s index showed that the number of products that have revealed competitive advantage was steadily growing during the period.
Lafay index, used in the analysis by regions, showed that Russia has comparative advantages in relation to CIS countries and Asian countries due to its geographical location and good trade relations.
Primary products have the comparative advantage in relation to EU and Asian countries. In relation to the Commonwealth of Independent States and Americas on the contrary the processed products have comparative advantages, while the most of primary products have comparative disadvantage.
In relation to the whole world, analysis has also revealed a shift of comparative advantage from by-products (e.g. bran of wheat, sunflower cake etc.) in 1998–2001 to primary products in 2002–2010 (wheat, barley, whole cow milk, sunflower seed etc.).
Resumo: Este trabalho tem o objetivo de analisar o comportamento e a estrutura do fluxo comercial externo de produtos industriais do Paraná, no período de 1996 a 2008. Para isso, utilizaram-se os Índices de Vantagem Comparativa Simétrica, de Contribuição ao Saldo, de Gini-Hischman e de Comércio Intraindústria. Os resultados revelaram que apenas dois setores da indústria paranaense obtiveram vantagem comparativa no período em análise: o das Indústrias alimentares, bebidas, fumos e seus sucedâneos e o que abrange Madeiras, carvão vegetal, cortiças e suas obras. Esses setores foram também os que mais contribuíram para o saldo comercial do estado. Os resultados dos índices de concentrações evidenciaram que o estado possui pauta exportadora industrial diversificada, mas exporta para poucos blocos econômicos. Já o índice de comércio intraindústria mostrou que o comércio internacional paranaense de bens industriais é basicamente interindustrial, ou seja, predomina o fluxo de bens entre diferentes setores de atividades. Palavras-chave: Índices de Competitividade; Produtos manufaturados; Paraná. JEL: F14.
This article discusses the structural changes that have taken place in the five emerging markets forming the BRICS grouping during the last two decades. The comparative advantages or disadvantages of the five economies are identified using revealed symmetric comparative advantage index. The long-run shifts in the comparative advantages and disadvantages are further analysed across the BRICS countries. The results show a continuous shift from primary manufacturing and from production of merchandise with low added value, to more sophisticated goods.
O objetivo desse artigo é estimar os movimentos abruptos, denominados de saltos (jumps) das séries de retorno diário do IBOVESPA, Dow Jones, taxa de juros brasileira, taxa de câmbio e no spread do C-Bond e verificar se há co-movimentos abruptos, ou co-saltos (co-jumps) entre as mesmas. Para isso, utilizou-se um teste não paramétrico para identificar os saltos significantes nas séries e a relação entre estes movimentos foram analisadas através de estatísticas descritivas e por um modelo Logit. Dentre os resultados encontrados, destacam-se a resposta assimétrica dos saltos do IBOVESPA às novidades boas e ruins e que os possíveis comovimentos entre Dow Jones e IBOVESPA são menos frequentes do que com os do spread do C-Bond.
The two methods and the hard core of economics. While methodological sci- ences have no object and are supposed to adopt a hypothetical-deductive method, substantive sciences including economics should use an empirical or historical- deductive method. The great classical economists and Keynes did that and were able to develop open models explaining how equally open economic systems work. Thus, the hard core of relevant economics is formed by the classical microeconomics and the classical theory of capitalist economic growth, and by Keynesian macroeco- nomics. In contrast, neoclassical economist aiming to build a mathematical science wrongly adopted the hypothetical-deductive method, and came to macroeconomic and growth models that do not have practical use in policymaking. The exception is Marshall's microeconomics that does not provide a model of real economic systems, but is useful to the analysis of markets.
The relative value of currencies varies considerably over time. These fluctuations bring uncertainty to international traders. As a result, the volatility in exchange rate movements may influence the volume and the price of traded commodities. The volatility of exchange rates was measured by the variance of residuals in a GARCH(1,1) model of the exchange rate. We estimated the effect of this exchange rate volatility on export quantity and price with autoregressive distributed lag models based on monthly data of US exports and prices to 14 countries for eight commodity groups. The most general and statistically significant results were obtained by pooling the time series data across destination countries and products. They suggested that an increase in exchange rate variability of 1% led to a short-run decrease in export quantity of 0.3%0.4% and to a short-run decrease in export price of 0.1%. Both the quantity and the price effect faded away over time. The effects were less systematic and statistically significant for specific export destinations or individual products. Thus, in contrast with exchange rate level, exchange rate volatility may not be a major policy issue for US forest product exports.
When researchers introduce a new test they have to demonstrate that it is valid, using unbiased designs and suitable statistical procedures. In this article we use Monte Carlo analyses to highlight how incorrect statistical procedures (i.e., stepwise regression, extreme scores analyses) or ignoring regression assumptions (e.g., heteroscedasticity) contribute to wrong validity estimates. Beyond these demonstrations, and as an example, we re-examined the results reported by Warwick, Nettelbeck, and Ward (2010) concerning the validity of the Ability Emotional Intelligence Measure (AEIM). Warwick et al. used the wrong statistical procedures to conclude that the AEIM was incrementally valid beyond intelligence and personality traits in predicting various outcomes. In our re-analysis, we found that the reliability-corrected multiple correlation of their measures with personality and intelligence was up to .69. Using robust statistical procedures and appropriate controls, we also found that the AEIM did not predict incremental variance in GPA, stress, loneliness, or well-being, demonstrating the importance for testing validity instead of looking for it.
The objective of the present paper is to examine the behavior and the structure of the export sector of the economy of Rio Grande do Norte from 1996 to 2006, and to identify the products of revealed comparative advantage. The paper also seeks to measure levels of export concentration of products and destination markets, types of trade, and export sectors that show strength. To achieve the objectives of the paper, the intra-industry indices of GRUBEL AND LLOYD (1975) and the indices of revealed comparative advantage of BALASSA (1965) e LAURSEN (1998) were used. The indexes of product concentration and export destination were obtained through the Gini-Hirchmna coefficient. The data was taken from the ALICEWEB system of the Ministry of Development, Industry and Trade – MDIC. The results revealed a high concentration of few primary products and destination markets, along with weak participation in the export of manufactured products. The study points out that the international trade of the State of Rio Grande do Norte is basically inter-industrial; that is, it exports primary products and imports manufactured products, characteristic of the Herckscher-Ohlin trade type. Among the group of products with intraindustrial trade, the cotton group stands out, showing the importance of the textile sector in the state’s economy.
This paper approaches the effects of patterns specialization on Brazilian foreign trade between the beginning of eighties and mid-nineties. Given that income-elasticity's may strongly differ among types of sectors and/or outputs in the international economy, national patterns specialization can also play a role with respect the constraints for the competitiveness and trade balance. Sector-specific changes in competitiveness are shown to be observable through the path of index of revealed comparative advantage (RCA's). The results show the pattern of specialization as playing a crucial role in explaining the Brazilian foreign trade along the period.
Russia possesses the world's largest forest reserves and is one of the major exporters in the world timber market. This paper explores the role of Russian forest products on the global market, taking into account competitiveness both at national and regional levels. The competitiveness level of traded goods was measured with three indicators using the approach of revealed comparative advantages. Analysis covered 153 countries and 81 Russian regions. Compared with previous studies, highly disaggregated data were used. 84 types of forest products were aggregated in 5 main product groups divided on the wood sector and paper sector. Results show that the main specialization in trade for Russia is raw wood and semi-finished wood and paper products. However, more than half of Russian regions demonstrated an advantage in trade in finished wood products while very few regions have comparative advantages in trade in pulp and paper products of high processing degree. Also, it was revealed that regions of the Russian Siberia and the Far East with significant forest reserves tend to have a narrow trade specialization in the export of roundwood and sawnwood. The majority of Russian regions intensively trade timber commodities at the world market. However, their geographical location and resource potential are still not used in the most effective way.
The pulp industry is an important sector of the global economy and a positive contributor to the trade balance in pulp producing countries. The main objective of this study was to analyze the competitiveness in the production of wood pulp in the United States, Brazil, Canada, Sweden, Finland, and China. We employed two indexes – the revealed comparative advantage (RCA) index and the revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) index – to ascertain the underlying comparative advantages between countries. Further, we used the trade balance index (TBI) to assess wood pulp's impacts on trade balance. Results showed that under the RCA index, all countries but China have comparative advantages. The RSCA indicated that the highest comparative advantages belong to Finland, Canada, and Sweden. Trade balance, assessed via the TBI index, found positive trade balances for Brazil, Finland, Canada, Sweden, and the USA. China has the greatest comparative disadvantage. We concluded that the wood pulp industry has a strong positive influence on the export economies of Brazil, Finland, Canada and Sweden; and in the USA it has a moderate positive influence.
This paper presents a new database of revealed comparative advantage (RCA) measures based on the recent index of RCA proposed by Costinot et al. (2012). This new index conceptually fits the ex-ante and country-sector specific nature of the Ricardian comparative advantage better than the traditional Balassa Index. The Balassa Index, indeed, being computed directly on observed export flows, does not distinguish between exporter, importer and sector specific factors affecting export flows. The RCA index proposed by Costinot et al. (2012) derives from a micro foundation of the Ricardian model and, being an econometrically-based measure, is able to fit the ex-ante nature of Ricardian comparative advantage. Costinot et al. (2012) compute the RCA for a sample of 21 OECD countries and 13 industries (ISIC) in 1997. In this paper, we extend the RCA calculations to the period 1995–2010 up to a HS4 digit product classification for manufacturing (i.e. 1018 products). We also present some empirical distribution features of the new index in comparison with the traditional Balassa Index.
Although there has been considerable analysis on the effects of trade measures on forest product markets, these have tended to focus on tariffs. There is growing concern about the impact of non-tariff trade measures on the global forest product sector. The objective of this study is to fill a gap and estimate trade and economic impacts of non-tariff barriers and compare them to the impacts of tariffs. Ad-valorem equivalent estimates for a set of well-defined non-tariff trade restrictions are incorporated into a global forest products trade model. Nontariff barriers are found to be less common than tariffs but have similar or bigger aggregate impacts on trade, production, producer revenues, consumer expenditures and value added as tariffs. There is uncertainty in the estimation of ad-valorem equivalence of non-tariff barriers that serves as a caveat on the results. Impacts of reducing tariff and non-tariff barriers are often different across regions and products. While not free from uncertainty, the results underscore the importance of analysing both types of trade policy and the need for continuing comprehensive trade liberalization.
Both globalisation and regionalisation have gained momentum in the last two decades in every part of the world, involving
economies at all levels of development. The following article examines the major determinants affecting the competitive position
of selected regional blocs and suggests some policy stances which promise to support both further regional integration and
improved competitiveness at a global level.
In this paper, we propose the normalized revealed comparative advantage (NRCA) index as an alternative measure of comparative
advantage. The NRCA index is demonstrated capable of revealing the extent of comparative advantage that a country has in a
commodity more precisely and consistently than other alternative RCA indices in the literature. As a result, the NRCA index
is comparable across commodity, country, and time. Therefore, the NRCA index provides a useful tool for quantitative regional
research, especially for studies on regional comparative advantage.
Análise do Índice de Vantagem Comparativa Revelada para o complexo da soja sulmato-grossense
- Dorneles
Competitividade das exportações brasileiras de castanha de caju e o efeito da crise de 2008
- Marques
A Evolução da Indústria Sul-Americana de Celulose e Papel: Foco no Brasil
- Lima-Toivanen
Competitividade do Brasil e Canadá no mercado de madeira serrada de coníferas
- Almeida