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Abstract and Figures

Two completely different monitoring systems were applied to analyze annual air temperature differences. The first monitoring system for analysis of changes in air temperature in Jerusalem is a meteorological station at Jerusalem University. The second monitoring system for analysis of surface temperature changes globally and locally in Israel is applied by NASA and further analyzed and detailed by FAOSTAT. Both monitoring systems indicate an average temperature increase since the starting year of the Jerusalem database, 1993.
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Air Temperature Changes in Jerusalem
Joseph Nowarski, M.Sc., ME – Energy Conservation Expert
Version 1, 14 February 2022
Abstract
Two completely different monitoring systems were applied to analyze annual air
temperature differences.
The first monitoring system for analysis of changes in air temperature in Jerusalem is
a meteorological station at Jerusalem University.
The second monitoring system for analysis of surface temperature changes
globally and locally in Israel is applied by NASA and further analyzed and detailed
by FAOSTAT.
Both monitoring systems indicate an average temperature increase since the
starting year of the Jerusalem database, 1993.
The temperature difference between the year 1993 and 2021 in Jerusalem is
1.44°C, in Israel 1.52°C and global 1.09°C.
Application of 30 years linear trendlines in various periods shows a constant
increase in the slope of the trendlines from 0.0209°C/y in years 1962-1991 to
0.0357°C/y in years 1992-2021 for the global change of surface temperature.
According to the most recent trendline, the temperature increase in the year 2035
compared to the 1951-1980 baseline will be 2.20°C in Jerusalem, 2.28°C in Israel,
and global 1.96°C.
Air Temperature Changes in Jerusalem 1993-2021 - Joseph Nowarski
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Source of Data
Air Temperature in Jerusalem
Temperature data for Jerusalem are available on the Israeli Meteorological
Service Internet site [1].
The records are for every 10 minutes. The number of records for one year is 52,560.
The parameter selected is "temperature", which is "dry temperature".
There are a few meteorological stations in Jerusalem. Among the all Jerusalem
stations, Jerusalem University Givat Ram station number 7020 has the longest
records, reaching the year 1993, therefore it was selected for this work. Givat Ram
is in the center of Jerusalem, the site of Jerusalem University, the government
campus, the parliament, and the Israel Museum. The station is located at the
Institute of Earth Science at Jerusalem University, N31.7704° E35.1973°, elevation
770 m. This station may be regarded as "open-air", surrounded by a relatively green
area.
All data are in degrees Celsius according to winter time – LST, GMT-2.
Global Surface Temperature Changes
NASA database [3] [4] [5] distinguish between 3 sets of data:
o annual mean surface temperature change over land
o annual mean surface temperature change over the ocean
o annual mean surface temperature change over land and over the
ocean
Surface temperature change over land is selected.
Changes in Surface Temperature in Israel
FAOSTAT Temperature Change Internet site includes data of surface temperature
changes in all countries [6].
The database includes monthly data. Annual January-December averages were
calculated in this work.
Air Temperature Changes in Jerusalem 1993-2021 - Joseph Nowarski
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Missing Records in Jerusalem Database
Table 1 - Missing records in Jerusalem database
year missing missing, %
1993
530
1.0%
1994
3,809
7.2%
1995
1,928
3.7%
1996
730
1.4%
1997
541
1.0%
1998
54
0.1%
1999
237
0.5%
2000
83
0.2%
2001
38,138
72.6%
2002
ALL 100.0%
2003
8,726
16.6%
2004
606
1.2%
2005
11
0.0%
2006
1,121
2.1%
2007
4
0.0%
2008
4
0.0%
2009
3
0.0%
2010
4
0.0%
2011
16
0.0%
2012
11
0.0%
2013
4,134
7.9%
2014
15
0.0%
2015
6
0.0%
2016
13
0.0%
2017
38
0.1%
2018
16
0.0%
2019
31
0.1%
2020
45
0.1%
2021
143
0.3%
Considering the number of missing records, the years 2001-2003 were removed
from the analysis.
Adding Missing Records
The following procedure is applied to estimate values of the missing records:
o Up to 11 missing records, the estimation is done by linear interpolation
between the neighboring records.
o For up to 24 continuous missing records the average of the neighboring
days was applied
Air Temperature Changes in Jerusalem 1993-2021 - Joseph Nowarski
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o For longer periods of continuous missing records, data were copied from
other station in Jerusalem with correction of difference between the
stations as on the neighboring days.
29 February
Years having 366 days have colder average temperatures than 365 days' years
because the additional day is in the middle of winter.
Therefore 29 February was removed from the calculations of the average
temperature.
Applied Jerusalem Database
Table 2 - Database applied
start year 1993
end year 2021
years not included 2001, 2002, 2003
years included 26
Years
Existing 1,352,427
Records
Existing 99.0%
Records
Missing 14,133
Records
Missing 1.0%
Records
full set 1,366,560
Records
This work applies a database of air temperature monitored at one station between
the years 1993-2021. 3 years (2011-2013) were excluded from the analysis because
of the large number of missing records. Finely the database applied includes 10
minutes records for 26 years. The number of available records is 1,352,427 (99.0%).
The number of missing records in years applied is 14,133 (1.0%). After adding
alternative replacements for missing records the corrected database includes
1,366,560 records.
Air Temperature Changes in Jerusalem 1993-2021 - Joseph Nowarski
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Air Temperature and Surface Temperature
The difference between the air temperature and surface temperature is explained
in [2].
Air temperature is measured at a standard height of 1.2 m above the ground
surface. Air temperature can be quite different from surface temperature. In
general, air temperatures above a surface reflect the same trends as ground
surface temperatures, but ground temperatures are likely to be more extreme [2].
The Jerusalem University data are for air temperature and not surface
temperature.
Global data and data for Israel are for surface temperature.
Baseline Temperature
The next parts of this analysis will be related to changes in global (world) surface
temperature as recorded by NASA [3] [4] [5].
NASA presents the temperature changes as the difference to the average
temperature between the years 1951 – 1980.
UN-FAO-Stat applies the same baseline [6].
As this work does not include records for years 1951-1992 for Jerusalem, the
following formula will be applied for the determination of baseline for the
temperature changes in Jerusalem:
Formula 1 - Jerusalem air temperature baseline
BL = DB1993 - NASA1993
BL Jerusalem air temperature baseline [°C]
DB1993 average air temperature in Jerusalem in the year 1993 according to
the applied database [°C]
NASA1993 surface temperature change over land, year 1993 average [°C] [5]
NASA1993 = 0.23°C
DB1993 = 16.76°C
BL = 16.53°C
Air Temperature Changes in Jerusalem 1993-2021 - Joseph Nowarski
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Trendline Type
This work applies 29-30 annual records linear trendlines.
The attempt to apply 30 annual records parabolic trendlines caused errors.
The trendlines formulas are displayed on charts.
Air Temperature in Jerusalem
Table 3 - Annual changes in air temperature in Jerusalem [°C]
Jm Ave Δ to BL mAve
°C °C °C
1993 16.76 0.23 0.23
1994 16.78 0.26 0.24
1995 16.96 0.43 0.31
1996 17.28 0.75 0.42
1997 16.40 -0.12 0.31
1998 17.63 1.10 0.44
1999 17.60 1.07 0.53
2000 16.76 0.23 0.49
2001 0.49
2002 0.49
2003 0.53
2004 17.20 0.68 0.59
2005 17.10 0.57 0.61
2006 16.81 0.28 0.54
2007 17.03 0.50 0.63
2008 17.66 1.13 0.64
2009 17.67 1.14 0.65
2010 19.38 2.85 1.02
2011 16.82 0.29 0.93
2012 17.84 1.31 0.97
2013 17.69 1.17 0.99
2014 17.87 1.34 1.06
2015 17.80 1.27 1.13
2016 18.17 1.65 1.27
2017 17.74 1.21 1.34
2018 18.25 1.72 1.40
2019 17.55 1.02 1.38
2020 17.81 1.29 1.23
2021 18.20 1.67 1.36
Jm Ave annual averages of air temperature in Jerusalem [°C]
Δ to BL difference of average year air temperature in Jerusalem to Jerusalem
baseline temperature [°C]
BL Jerusalem baseline temperature = 16.53°C
mAve moving average (10 years) of “Δ to BL” [°C]
Air Temperature Changes in Jerusalem 1993-2021 - Joseph Nowarski
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Chart 1 - Changes in air temperatures in Jerusalem [°C]
y = 0.0450514824x + 0.2613813248
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
Δ to BL mAve Linear (Δ to BL)
Table 4 - Trendline of air temperature in Jerusalem [°C]
TL Actual
°C °C
2015 1.30 1.27
2016 1.34 1.65
2017 1.39 1.21
2018 1.43 1.72
2019 1.48 1.02
2020 1.52 1.29
2021 1.57 1.67
2022 1.61
2023 1.66
2024 1.70
2025 1.75
2026 1.79
2027 1.84
2028 1.88
2029 1.93
2030 1.97
2031 2.02
2032 2.06
2033 2.11
2034 2.15
2035 2.20
TL linear trendline of (Δ to BL) [°C]
Air Temperature Changes in Jerusalem 1993-2021 - Joseph Nowarski
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Changes in Surface Temperature in Israel
The data are from FAOSTAT [6]. The baseline is an average in the years 1951-1980,
as NASA [3] [4] [5].
The database includes monthly data. Annual January-December averages are
applied.
The database starts at the beginning of the year 1961.
Table 5 - Changes in surface temperature in Israel [°C] [6]
Δ to BL mAve Δ to BL mAve
°C °C °C °C
1961 -0.38 -0.38
1991 -0.03 -0.27
1962 0.83 0.22
1992 -1.11 -0.30
1963 0.73 0.39
1993 -0.12 -0.22
1964 -0.59 0.15
1994 0.40 -0.14
1965 0.02 0.12
1995 -0.10 -0.16
1966 0.67 0.21
1996 0.44 -0.11
1967 -0.95 0.05
1997 -0.30 -0.12
1968 -0.05 0.03
1998 0.85 -0.02
1969 0.30 0.06
1999 0.75 0.08
1970 0.02 0.06
2000 0.09 0.09
1971 -0.36 0.06
2001 0.77 0.17
1972 -0.53 -0.07
2002 0.65 0.34
1973 -0.28 -0.17
2003 0.45 0.40
1974 -0.36 -0.15
2004 0.38 0.40
1975 -0.40 -0.19
2005 0.35 0.44
1976 -0.45 -0.31
2006 0.25 0.42
1977 -0.17 -0.23
2007 0.54 0.51
1978 0.02 -0.22
2008 0.74 0.50
1979 0.47 -0.20
2009 0.78 0.50
1980 -0.14 -0.22
2010 2.25 0.72
1981 -0.17 -0.20
2011 0.32 0.67
1982 -0.82 -0.23
2012 1.00 0.71
1983 -0.95 -0.30
2013 0.86 0.75
1984 -0.37 -0.30
2014 0.99 0.81
1985 0.13 -0.24
2015 1.06 0.88
1986 -0.15 -0.21
2016 1.48 1.00
1987 -0.20 -0.22
2017 0.90 1.04
1988 -0.12 -0.23
2018 1.80 1.14
1989 -0.23 -0.30
2019 1.05 1.17
1990 0.03 -0.29
2020 1.40 1.09
Δ to BL difference of change of surface temperature in Israel to baseline [°C]
BL baseline change of surface temperature in Israel, average in years
1951-1980 [°C]
mAve moving average (10 years) of “Δ to BL” [°C]
Air Temperature Changes in Jerusalem 1993-2021 - Joseph Nowarski
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Chart 2 - Changes in surface temperature in Israel [°C] [6]
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
Δ to BL mAve
Global Surface Temperature
Input Data
The data are from NASA[3] [4] [5]. The baseline is an average in the years 1951-
1980.
Starting Year for Analysis
Starting year for the analysis will be the same as the available data for Israel – 1961.
Air Temperature Changes in Jerusalem 1993-2021 - Joseph Nowarski
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Table 6 - Global surface temperature change over land [°C] [3] [4] [5]
Δ to BL mAve Δ to BL mAve
°C °C °C °C
1961 0.14 0.14
1991 0.58 0.34
1962 0.08 0.11
1992 0.25 0.36
1963 0.17 0.13
1993 0.23 0.34
1964 -0.27 0.03
1994 0.47 0.38
1965 -0.14 0.00
1995 0.74 0.45
1966 -0.05 -0.01
1996 0.40 0.47
1967 0.02 -0.01
1997 0.58 0.49
1968 -0.14 -0.02
1998 0.92 0.52
1969 -0.13 -0.04
1999 0.69 0.55
1970 0.03 -0.03
2000 0.61 0.55
1971 -0.03 -0.05
2001 0.81 0.57
1972 -0.15 -0.07
2002 0.99 0.64
1973 0.31 -0.06
2003 0.92 0.71
1974 -0.13 -0.04
2004 0.76 0.74
1975 0.13 -0.01
2005 1.10 0.78
1976 -0.25 -0.03
2006 0.94 0.83
1977 0.23 -0.01
2007 1.18 0.89
1978 0.06 0.01
2008 0.87 0.89
1979 0.12 0.03
2009 0.94 0.91
1980 0.34 0.06
2010 1.11 0.96
1981 0.53 0.12
2011 0.96 0.98
1982 0.07 0.14
2012 0.96 0.97
1983 0.42 0.15
2013 1.05 0.99
1984 0.08 0.17
2014 1.02 1.01
1985 0.05 0.17
2015 1.31 1.03
1986 0.25 0.22
2016 1.48 1.09
1987 0.39 0.23
2017 1.37 1.11
1988 0.61 0.29
2018 1.22 1.14
1989 0.33 0.31
2019 1.42 1.19
1990 0.66 0.34
2020 1.59 1.24
2021 1.32 1.27
Δ to BL difference of change of global surface temperature to baseline
change of global surface temperature [°C]
BL baseline change of global surface temperature, average in years 1951-
1980 [°C]
mAve moving average (10 years) of “Δ to BL” [°C]
Source:
GISTEMP Team, 2022: GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP), version 4. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies.
Dataset accessed 2022-02-05 at https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp
Lenssen, N., G. Schmidt, J. Hansen, M. Menne, A. Persin, R. Ruedy, and D. Zyss, 2019: Improvements in the GISTEMP uncertainty
model. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 124, no. 12, 6307-6326, doi:10.1029/2018JD029522.
Air Temperature Changes in Jerusalem 1993-2021 - Joseph Nowarski
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Chart 3 - Global surface temperature change over land [°C] [3] [4] [5]
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
2018
2021
Δ to BL mAve
Air Temperature Changes in Jerusalem 1993-2021 - Joseph Nowarski
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Changes in Air Temperature in Jerusalem, Surface Temperature in Israel and
Global Surface Temperature
Table 7 - Changes in air temperature in Jerusalem, the surface temperature in
Israel, and global surface temperature [°C]
Jerusalem Israel Global Δmax
°C °C °C °C
1993 0.23 -0.12 0.23 0.35
1994 0.26 0.40 0.47 0.21
1995 0.43 -0.10 0.74 0.84
1996 0.75 0.44 0.40 0.35
1997 -0.12 -0.30 0.58 0.88
1998 1.10 0.85 0.92 0.25
1999 1.07 0.75 0.69 0.38
2000 0.23 0.09 0.61 0.52
2001 0.77 0.81 0.04
2002 0.65 0.99 0.34
2003 0.45 0.92 0.47
2004 0.68 0.38 0.76 0.38
2005 0.57 0.35 1.10 0.75
2006 0.28 0.25 0.94 0.69
2007 0.50 0.54 1.18 0.68
2008 1.13 0.74 0.87 0.39
2009 1.14 0.78 0.94 0.36
2010 2.85 2.25 1.11 1.74
2011 0.29 0.32 0.96 0.67
2012 1.31 1.00 0.96 0.35
2013 1.17 0.86 1.05 0.31
2014 1.34 0.99 1.02 0.35
2015 1.27 1.06 1.31 0.25
2016 1.65 1.48 1.48 0.17
2017 1.21 0.90 1.37 0.47
2018 1.72 1.80 1.22 0.58
2019 1.02 1.05 1.42 0.40
2020 1.29 1.40 1.59 0.30
2021 1.67 1.32 0.35
Ave 0.48
Max 1.74
Δmax maximum absolute difference between each column [°C]
Air Temperature Changes in Jerusalem 1993-2021 - Joseph Nowarski
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Chart 4 - Changes in air temperature in Jerusalem, the surface temperature in
Israel, and global surface temperature 1993-2021 [°C]
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Jerusalem Israel Global
Temperature increase in Israel is much faster than the global change and the
change in air temperature in Jerusalem.
Temperature Difference between 1993 and 2021
Table 8 - Temperature difference between 1993 and 2021 [°C]
Jerusalem Israel * Global
°C °C °C
1993 0.23 -0.12 0.23
2021 1.67 1.40 1.32
Δ to 1993 1.44 1.52 1.09
* 1993-2000
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Change of Trendline of Surface Temperature in Israel with Years
Trendline based on period 1962-1991 resulted in -0.03°C estimated change of
surface temperature in Israel in the year 2035 compared to baseline.
Trendline based on the period 1992-2020 gives different results.
Trendlines formulas are displayed on charts.
Chart 5 - Estimation of surface temperature change in Israel in the year 2035
based on 1962-1991 data [°C]
y = -0.0124409158x + 0.0564036398
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1962
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
2016
2019
2022
2025
2028
2031
2034
Israel 1962-1991 Linear (Israel 1962-1991)
Air Temperature Changes in Jerusalem 1993-2021 - Joseph Nowarski
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Chart 6 - Estimation of surface temperature change in Israel in the year 2035
based on 1972-2001 data [°C]
y = 0.0265366704x - 0.5130906130
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
Israel 1972-2001 Linear (Israel 1972-2001)
Chart 7 - Estimation of surface temperature change in Israel in the year 2035
based on 1982-2011 data [°C]
y = 0.0529114943x - 0.6316114943
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
Israel 1982-2011 Linear (Israel 1982-2011)
Air Temperature Changes in Jerusalem 1993-2021 - Joseph Nowarski
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Chart 8 - Estimation of surface temperature change in Israel in the year 2035
based on 1992-2020 data [°C]
y = 0.0562660509x - 0.1921717980
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
Israel 1992-2020 Linear (Israel 1992-2020)
Chart 9 - Change of trendlines of surface temperature in Israel with years [°C]
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
1962-1991 1972-2001 1982-2011 1992-2020 actual
Air Temperature Changes in Jerusalem 1993-2021 - Joseph Nowarski
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Table 9 - Change of trendlines of surface temperature in Israel with years
1962-
1991
1972-
2001
1982-
2011
1992-
2020 actual
°C °C °C °C °C
2015 -0.62 0.65 1.17 1.16 1.06
2016 -0.63 0.68 1.22 1.21 1.48
2017 -0.64 0.71 1.27 1.27 0.90
2018 -0.65 0.73 1.33 1.33 1.80
2019 -0.67 0.76 1.38 1.38 1.05
2020 -0.68 0.79 1.43 1.44 1.40
2021 -0.69 0.81 1.48 1.50
2022 -0.70 0.84 1.54 1.55
2023 -0.71 0.87 1.59 1.61
2024 -0.73 0.89 1.64 1.66
2025 -0.74 0.92 1.70 1.72
2026 -0.75 0.95 1.75 1.78
2027 -0.76 0.97 1.80 1.83
2028 -0.78 1.00 1.86 1.89
2029 -0.79 1.03 1.91 1.95
2030 -0.80 1.05 1.96 2.00
2031 -0.81 1.08 2.01 2.06
2032 -0.83 1.11 2.07 2.11
2033 -0.84 1.13 2.12 2.17
2034 -0.85 1.16 2.17 2.23
2035 -0.86 1.19 2.23 2.28
Table 10 - Estimation of surface temperature change in Israel in the year 2035
1962-
1991
1972-
2001
1982-
2011
1992-
2020
°C °C °C °C
2035 -0.86 1.19 2.23 2.28
Δ 2.05 1.04 0.06
Change of Global Temperature Trendline with Years
Trendline based on period 1962-1991 resulted in 1.36°C estimated global surface
temperature increase in the year 2035 compared to baseline.
Trendline based on the period 1992-2021 gives different results.
Trendlines formulas are displayed on charts.
Air Temperature Changes in Jerusalem 1993-2021 - Joseph Nowarski
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Chart 10 - Estimation of global temperature change in the year 2035 based on
1962-1991 data [°C]
y = 0.0209098999x - 0.1851034483
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
1962
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
2016
2019
2022
2025
2028
2031
2034
Global 1962-1991 Linear (Global 1962-1991)
Chart 11 - Estimation of global temperature change in the year 2035 based on
1972-2001 data [°C]
y = 0.0260088988x - 0.0588045977
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
Global 1972-2001 Linear (Global 1972-2001)
Air Temperature Changes in Jerusalem 1993-2021 - Joseph Nowarski
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Chart 12 - Estimation of global temperature change in the year 2035 based on
1982-2011 data [°C]
y = 0.0326963293x + 0.1235402299
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
Global 1982-2011 Linear (Global 1982-2011)
Chart 13 - Estimation of global temperature change in the year 2035 based on
1992-2021 data [°C]
y = 0.0356996663x + 0.3869885057
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
Global 1992-2021 Linear (Global 1992-2021)
Air Temperature Changes in Jerusalem 1993-2021 - Joseph Nowarski
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Chart 14 - Change of global temperature trendlines with years [°C]
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
1962-1991 1972-2001 1982-2011 1992-2021 actual
Table 11 - Change of global temperature trendlines with years
1962-
1991
1972-
2001
1982-
2011
1992-
2021 actual
°C °C °C °C °C
2015 0.94 1.09 1.24 1.24 1.31
2016 0.96 1.11 1.27 1.28 1.48
2017 0.99 1.14 1.30 1.32 1.37
2018 1.01 1.16 1.33 1.35 1.22
2019 1.03 1.19 1.37 1.39 1.42
2020 1.05 1.22 1.40 1.42 1.59
2021 1.07 1.24 1.43 1.46 1.32
2022 1.09 1.27 1.46 1.49
2023 1.11 1.29 1.50 1.53
2024 1.13 1.32 1.53 1.57
2025 1.15 1.35 1.56 1.60
2026 1.17 1.37 1.59 1.64
2027 1.19 1.40 1.63 1.67
2028 1.22 1.42 1.66 1.71
2029 1.24 1.45 1.69 1.74
2030 1.26 1.48 1.73 1.78
2031 1.28 1.50 1.76 1.81
2032 1.30 1.53 1.79 1.85
2033 1.32 1.55 1.82 1.89
2034 1.34 1.58 1.86 1.92
2035 1.36 1.61 1.89 1.96
Table 12 - Estimation of global temperature change in the year 2035
1962-
1991
1972-
2001
1982-
2011
1992-
2021
°C °C °C °C
2035 1.36 1.61 1.89 1.96
Δ 0.24 0.28 0.07
Air Temperature Changes in Jerusalem 1993-2021 - Joseph Nowarski
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References
1. The Government Databases / Meteorological Service
https://ims.data.gov.il/ims/7
2. Geography - Surface and Air Temperature
https://geography.name/surface-and-air-temperature
3. GISTEMP Team, 2022: GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP), version
4. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Dataset accessed 2022-02-05
at https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp
4. Lenssen, N., G. Schmidt, J. Hansen, M. Menne, A. Persin, R. Ruedy, and D.
Zyss, 2019: Improvements in the GISTEMP uncertainty model. J. Geophys.
Res. Atmos., 124, no. 12, 6307-6326, doi:10.1029/2018JD029522.
5. NASA - Goddard Institute for Space Studies, GISS Surface Temperature
Analysis (v4), Annual Mean Temperature Change over Land and over
Ocean
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4
6. FAOSTAT Temperature Change
https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/ET/visualize
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