Temperature and the maturation of fish: a simple sine-wave model for predicting accelerated spring spawning

Abstract

Global warming affects the phenology of the Earth’s flora and fauna, notably by advancing the date at which many plants and animals tend to reproduce. We use fish, where this reproductive acceleration is well-documented, to present a simple approach based on sine curves to predict, in spring spawning fish, the minimum number of days (Δdmin) that spawning is advanced as the result of a given increase in water temperature (Δ°C). We show, via comparison with field estimates, that our simple model’s robust predictions correspond to observed values of Δdmin/Δ°C, and discuss both the potential uses and the limitations of the model.

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https://doi.org/10.1007/s10641-022-01212-0
Temperature andthematuration offish: asimple sine‑wave
model forpredicting accelerated spring spawning
DanielPauly · CuiLiang
Received: 28 April 2021 / Accepted: 7 January 2022
© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. 2022
Keywords Spring spawning in fish· Shifts in
phenology· Temperature differences· Size at first
maturity· Triggers for maturation· Amplitude of
seasonal oscillations
Introduction
Global change, or more precisely, global warming,
has modified much of the Earth’s flora and fauna’s
reproductive phenology and can be expected to con-
tinue doing so for decades. These modifications take
various forms, including earlier flowering in some
trees and earlier migrations in birds (see, e.g., Ahas
and Aasa 2006; Cohen etal. 2018), many due to sinu-
soid seasonal temperature oscillations with a higher
annual mean (Fig. 1). In the past few decades, the
temperatures of marine ecosystems have increased
(Belkin 2009), as they have in freshwater bodies (Car-
penter et al. 1992; Kangur et al. 2021). Increasing
temperatures, on the other hand, will alter the physi-
ology of fish, and particularly their reproduction, as
can be expected in ectotherms (Alix etal. 2020).
The fact that ocean and freshwater warming
is modifying the phenology of maturation and
spawning in fishes, i.e., the timing of their reach-
ing puberty, has been widely reported. A meta-
analysis of observed phenological shifts suggested
that seasonal events of marine species advanced by
an average of 4.4 days per decade during the late
twentieth century (Poloczanska etal. 2013). Also,
Abstract Global warming affects the phenology of
the Earth’s flora and fauna, notably by advancing the
date at which many plants and animals tend to repro-
duce. We use fish, where this reproductive accelera-
tion is well-documented, to present a simple approach
based on sine curves to predict, in spring spawn-
ing fish, the minimum number of days (Δdmin) that
spawning is advanced as the result of a given increase
in water temperature (Δ°C). We show, via comparison
with field estimates, that our simple model’s robust
predictions correspond to observed values of Δdmin/
Δ°C, and discuss both the potential uses and the limi-
tations of the model.
Supplementary information The online version
contains supplementary material available at https:// doi.
org/ 10. 1007/ s10641- 022- 01212-0.
D.Pauly(*)
Institute fortheOceans andFisheries, Sea Around Us,
University ofBritish Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
e-mail: d.pauly@oceans.ubc.ca
C.Liang
CAS Key Laboratory ofMarine Ecology
andEnvironmental Sciences, Institute ofOceanology,
Chinese Academy ofSciences, Qingdao266071,
People’sRepublicofChina
e-mail: liangc@qdio.ac.cn
C.Liang
Laboratory forMarine Ecology andEnvironmental
Science, Qingdao National Laboratory forMarine
Science andTechnology, Qingdao266237,
People’sRepublicofChina
/ Published online: 8 February 2022
Environ Biol Fish (2022) 105:1481–1487
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