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Alternative Futures
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Alternative Futures: The use of fiction to explore
competing visions
Dr. Timothy X. Merritt
Abstract
Alternate Futures are compared using the foresight technique of Directed Fiction.
Directed Fiction seeks to blend the foresight practitioner’s need to consider multiple
future possibilities simultaneously, without interfering with the necessary creativity and
essential bias required to write compelling works of fiction. As a general rule, Directed
Fiction focuses on a single foresight framework, while the fiction writer(s) work
independently within that framework, resulting in “bundles” of individual fictional
stories that, when taken together, can provide “maps” of alternate futures.
Fiction for the Future
Unlike fiction written solely for entertainment, Fiction for the Future is intentionally
planned to explore specific research targets. Fiction for the Future (or Directed
Fiction) seeks to blend the foresight practitioner’s need to consider multiple future
possibilities simultaneously, without interfering with the necessary creativity and
essential bias required to write compelling works of fiction. As a general rule,
Fiction for the Future focuses on a single foresight framework, while the fiction
writer(s) work independently within that framework, resulting in “bundles” of
individual fictional stories that, when taken together, can provide “maps” of the
future.
The qualitative research method described in this paper builds on the Rapid
Classification of Fiction into Archetypes described by Merritt (2022). Thirty-six
near-future science fiction novels were sorted into one of Fergnani & Song’s (2020)
Six Archetype Framework. These six new archetypes were named: Growth &
Decay, Threats & New Hopes, Wasteworlds, The Powers that Be, Disarray, and
Inversion, according to their underlying themes.
Table 1.
Archetype
As a % of
Novels Examined
Appendix A
Growth and Decay
7 Novels out of 36 – 19.4%
Appendix B
Threats and New Hope
9 Novels out of 36 – 25%
Appendix C
Wasteworlds
5 Novels out of 36 – 13.9%
Appendix D
The Powers that Be
5 Novels out of 36 – 13.9%
Appendix E
Disarray
3 Novels out of 36 – 8.3%
Appendix F
Inversion
7 Novels out of 36 – 19.4%
In a field setting, a qualitative approach was taken to compare and contrast the
themes emerging within each category (Creswell, 2013). Specific details can be found
by following the links in Table 1.
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Alternative Futures Compared
Comparing alternative futures can be accomplished by employing the general
inductive approach in three distinct steps: First, condense the raw data into brief
summaries or “text segments,” then demonstrate clear relationships between the text
segments and the novels examined (in this instance – good examples of specific
themes predicted by the Six Archetype Framework). And finally, develop a model
or theory that explains the themes that emerge from the raw data (Thomas, 2003, p.
5). Table 2 shows the relative distribution of 28 specific themes found in the back-
cover copy of 36 novels offering alternative visions of the future.
Table 2.
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Alternative Futures Analyzed
A general inductive approach was employed to analyze the qualitative data. Thomas
(2003) explains that “the primary purpose of the inductive approach is to allow
research findings to emerge from frequent, dominant or significant themes inherent
in raw data, without restraints imposed by structured methodologies” (p. 2). Table 3
illustrates ten Recurring Themes that overlapped categories and appeared in multiple
different Archetypes. These overlapping categories reveal trends of bias in modern
fiction writing about the near future.
Table 3.
Understanding the prevalence of common themes allows researchers to
overcome the inherent bias of popular (and often culturally influenced) views of the
future. Researchers are freed to ask different questions. They can frame their
inquiries with an eye towards examining “gaps” in competing views of the future,
potentially revealing blind spots (Pfeffer & Sutton, 2006) that may contain both
opportunities and threats.
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Archetype Gap:
Only three (or 8.6%) were categorized under the Disarray Archetype of the thirty-six
novels evaluated. This immediately leads one to conclude that popular fiction writers
are not thinking about possible futures where the fundamental systems of society,
economy, security, health, and education are all breaking down. Instead, the most
highly represented category is the Archetype "Threats and New Hope" (25%). When
combined with "Growth and Decay" (19.4%) and "The Powers that Be" (13.9%), it
would appear that the majority of fiction writers (52.9%) envision the near-future as
progressing into an era of increasing technology, higher levels of global prosperity,
and the continued growth of government interventions.
Recurring Themes Analysis:
Nineteen of the thirty-six novels evaluated emphasized some form of human-
machine interface. This is undoubtedly a result of the massive advances in
technology and computing capacity, performance, and application that have taken
place around the globe in the span of a single human lifetime. Each of us has been
impacted by the ever-increasing velocity of technological advancement, and it is no
wonder fiction writers grapple with the implications of this emerging phenomenon.
Sixteen of the thirty-six novels evaluated described some form of increased
centralization of governmental power. One imagines that this perspective also
relies on some combination of either lived experiences with increasing
authoritarianism or through witnessing through media the endless interactions of
governments with private citizens. Like a never-ending soap opera, the machinations
of the global elite evoke fascination typically coupled with feelings of apprehension
of fear.
Local violence, such as fist-fights, gunplay, and high-speed chases, are
apparent in fourteen of the novels evaluated. These are likely just used as techniques
to create lively storytelling. There is no evidence that there is a notion that individual
conflict or personal combat will be more prevalent in the future than it has been in
the past.
Oddly, in the present age where the genetic modification of living
creatures is occurring, and there are daily news reports about the dangers of global
warming, only six examples of each theme were observed in the sample of novels
studied. Might there be a future where these issues are not of grave concern?
Finally, while violence between individual people is accentuated, both
global war and regional conflict are minimized. Do these notions align with
reality in an era of increasing Great Power competition?
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The Disarray Archetype as an Area for Directed Study
How might the relentless advance of technology towards an evolutionary human-
machine singularity be thwarted by a disastrous global collapse of the systems and
institutions that make technological progress possible? If individuals place their faith
in science, how might they starve their souls? The Disarray Archetype is distinct and
separate from the Wasteworlds Archetype in that humanity is forced to adapt to new
and deteriorating conditions, rather than being brought to the verge of extinction or
dominated by an alien species.
In the Disarray Archetype, humanity must learn to rely on something other
than technology or government to address systemic and deteriorating conditions.
Society cannot be "fixed," so it is up to the individual to persevere and fight for
something that matters more than society. In the Disarray Archetype, character
matters. So do morality, love, and bravery. It is a heroic age where people matter
most, and their stories are told from the individual's point of view, solutions are
local, and the lessons they learn have enduring human value.
No one knows what the future holds. As most writers seem to think, the
unfolding of human history may lead us into an ever-increasingly volatile, uncertain,
complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) future. We seem well-positioned (and even
conditioned) to adapt to that reality if it does. However, if we, as a global
community, are living in a "house of cards" that is about to come tumbling down
around our ears, we are ill-prepared to even begin to address that emerging reality.
Therefore, the Disarray Archetype seems an ideal candidate for further exploration
using the foresight technique of directed fiction.
Fictional Scenario for Disarray Archetype
The power and benefit of the Directed Fiction technique is that it enables researchers
to identify hidden trends in popular conceptions of the future and ask questions that
might otherwise have been overlooked. The early detection of cultural blind spots
may assist leaders and policymakers in making better decisions and ultimately taking
more appropriate action (Merritt, 2021). Therefore, based on my qualitative review
of fiction novels, I’ve decided to focus on the Archetype Disarray:
In this archetype, although in the absence of apparent
transformational changes in the economy or atmospheric
environment, mankind faces structural endogenous
problems. The globe is plagued by any of the following:
endemic crime, social unrest and disorder, widespread
poverty, ignorance, infertility, violent confrontation and
war, famines, or pandemics; or by a combination of these.
Although the private sector is still present, military and
policing organizations, either official or non-official, have a
more central role in this future. Individual endeavors zero
in on restoring or maintaining justice, order, or protection
Alternative Futures
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of citizens. (Fergnani & Song, 2020, p. 11)
Alternate Futures
What might a Disarray future look like? What images of the future have been
overlooked by the authors considered in this study? Consider that events which will
take place in the future are likely to have signals we can observe today. Using our
imagination, what current trends can be projected to reveal potential cultural blind
spots? It is interesting to note that while many people think about various aspects of
the following five areas of inquiry, none of these seemingly obvious examples of
plausible alternative futures were explored in the novels in the study:
A Second Great Depression
Inflation is increasing, global supply chains are backlogged, and ports are
clogged. In the United States, store shelves are empty. In China, major real
estate developers are unable to meet debt payments. Given these current
conditions, it is not difficult to imagine a near-future where the global
economy has experienced a more than 5% reduction in GDP for six
consecutive quarters. The median unemployment rate in all developed
countries remains in double-digits. Global trade has plummeted 37%, and
the world has officially entered a Second Great Depression.
Great Power Conflict in Two Theaters Simultaneously
Russian troops are massing on the border of Ukraine. China has already
seized control of Hong Kong. They have made their expansionary
aspirations clear with military flights through Taiwanese airspace and the
construction of fortified islands in the South China Sea. U.S. leadership
responded with massive simultaneous deployments to both the European
and Pacific theaters. Armed regional conflict began with cyberattacks and
cyber counterattacks, which led to missile strikes and artillery barrages
against civilian population centers. While the situation has not yet escalated
to the level of WWIII, regional conflict is intensifying, and everything is on
the line.
A Limited Nuclear Exchange
Nuclear capable North Korea is testing long-range missiles. Iran has
acquired fissile material and is stockpiling in quantities sufficient to
construct a bomb. Russia, China, and North Korea are all aiding in Iran’s
nuclear ambitions. The United States has warned Israel against launching
“counterproductive” attacks on Iran’s nuclear sites, while Israel and Bahrain
sign a defense agreement to counter the perceived existential threat. After
Hiroshima and Nagasaki and the Cold War theory of mutually assured
destruction, policymakers believed that no one would ever be foolish
enough to use these terrible weapons of mass destruction. But once again, a
nuclear device has been detonated in an act of war. Now the world teeters
on the precipice. Is there any pulling back from an all-out exchange that no
one can possibly win?
Alternative Futures
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Balkanization of the Western United States
The United States is divided politically, socially, religiously, and culturally.
There is already talk about “irreconcilable differences” leading to a
"divorce" between left and right political factions, including a breakup and
reorganization of state lines. Americans are developing parallel societies.
Whether it be the ecotopian vision of Cascadia, the division of Oregon and
Washington to form Greater Idaho, the long-sought State of Jefferson
encompassing Southern Oregon and Northern California, or the CalExit,
which advocates for complete secession from the United States; the last
time this was tried, it led to the disastrous American Civil War. Within the
legal framework of the U.S. Constitution, it might be possible to navigate
these dangerous waters without the need for bloodshed. If such a peaceful
reorganization is even possible, what lessons might it offer the global
community in terms of redrawing national and international lines while
avoiding catastrophic consequences?
Collapse of the Education System
Civilized nations offer public education as a basic service to increase
literacy and develop productive citizens. However, centuries of entrenched
institutionalism have led to a system of highly subsidized education where
governments guarantee loans for students to attend courses without any real
possibility of return on investment. University endowments grow to
colossal sums in what are essentially tax-free havens. Education has come
to be viewed by political activists as a means by which children are
separated from their parent’s traditional ideologies, and universities have
become little more than cultural indoctrination centers. With the COVID
pandemic driving children permanently away from closed public schools,
legislation for increased school choice is emerging everywhere.
Astronomical student loans have led millions to question whether a college
education is really worth it. In this volatile mix of politics and policy, some
have begun to view the fat university endowments as a rich target of
opportunity. How might a pride of legal lions set about hunting a pack of
educational elephants? Surely there are risks, but the enormous rewards
would more than make up for the effort.
Conclusion and Next Steps
With a decision in place to explore a future in Disarray using Directed Fiction, the
next step will be to organize a Framing and Scanning Workshop where respondents
will be asked to respond to a series of prompts regarding each of the areas of inquiry
listed above.
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Step 1 - Framing:
The first step of the foresight process (Merritt, 2021) is framing. It is essential that
the researcher carefully frame the prompts so that only a single area of inquiry is
examined at a time. Otherwise, the undirected speculation about competing visions
of the future runs amok with no useful data generated. Careful framing of the area of
interest is critical to both the researcher and the respondents.
Step 2 - Scanning:
Using a disciplined, methodological approach, the researcher can facilitate a
brainstorming session designed to elicit responses to carefully worded prompts.
Ideally, the respondents would be subject matter experts from a wide variety of
backgrounds with significant levels of expertise in their respective fields. Within the
boundaries of the framework, there are no "wrong" answers, and respondents are
encouraged to provide short, creative responses. This could take the form of answers
written on sticky notes that are posted to a wall, or given a digital environment,
responses in a discussion forum.
During the second iteration of the scanning workshop, the researcher will
group the responses into logical categories and then ask the respondents to rate the
categories according to two factors; temporality (the sequence in which events must
logically occur) and urgency (the relative importance of each category). The desired
outcome of this process is for at least three "critical" decision points to emerge that
broadly relate to each of the category groupings.
Step 3 - Generating Directed Fiction Stories:
The results of the scanning workshop become the foundation for freelance science
fiction writers to generate a series of interlocking short stories that examine the target
question in terms of “Landmarks” arranged in a “Choose Your Own Adventure”
format. Table 4 illustrates the proposed sequence of the stories and decision points:
Table 4.
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Conclusion:
To explore the alternate futures of the Disarray category, I will conduct five separate
framing workshops to elicit responses to prompts for each of the areas of interest
described above. Each workshop will generate twelve interconnected science fiction
short stories, and each story will contain an image with a map for the reader to recognize
where they are in the process. The project will result in a total of 60 Directed Fiction
short stories that represent a thorough (but not exhaustive) examination of the Disarray
category of the future.
The possible applications of the Directed Fiction technique far exceed mere
considerations of entertainment or simple curiosity about the future. Popular culture
is often impacted by propagandized messages or "The Narrative" promulgated by
cultural elites. This technique of Directed Fiction fosters the democratization of
foresight tools, enabling exploration of an infinite number of alternative futures. By
using this technique, ordinary people can critique the dominant social narratives
and craft any number of their own narratives as their personal passions and
circumstances dictate.
Alternative Futures
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References
Creswell, J. W., & Creswell, J. W. (2013). Qualitative inquiry and research design:
choosing among five approaches. Los Angeles: SAGE Publications, c2013.
Fergnani, A. & Song, Z. (2020). The six scenario archetypes framework: A systematic
investigation of science fiction films set in the future. Futures, (124, 102645) ISSN
0016-3287, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2020.102645
Merritt, T. (2021). How do you use strategic foresight? Retrieved online: How Do You Use
Strategic Foresight? (timothyxmerritt.com)
Merritt, T. (2022). Imagining the future: The rapid classification of fiction archetypes.
ResearchGate, (PDF) Imagining the Future: The rapid classification of fiction
archetypes (researchgate.net)
Pfeffer, J. & Sutton, R. (2006). Hard facts dangerous half-truths & total nonsense:
Profiting from evidence-based management. Boston: Harvard Business School
Press.
Rovai, A., Baker, J. & Ponton, M. (2014) Social science research design and statistics: A
practitioner’s guide to research methods and IBM SPSS analysis (2nd ed.).
Chesapeake: Watertree Press, LLC.
Thomas, D. R. (2003). A general inductive approach for qualitative data analysis.
Retrieved online:
http://www.frankumstein.com/PDF/Psychology/Inductive%20Content%20Analysi
s.pdf
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Appendix A.
Qualitative Analysis of the Archetype:
Growth and Decay
This archetype involves the continuation of the current
capitalistic status quo, which grows even more rampantly.
Corporations reign unalloyed, potentially extending their power
to policing, urban security, the management of public
infrastructures, and law enforcement. Governmental power is
absent or sidelined. Current technologies also grow steadily,
pushed by monetary gains and controlled by corporations. Hints
of societal collapse or decay are found in society. Decay can
manifest in various forms, from abject life conditions and patent
disparities to mismanagement of urban hygiene and bleakness of
the atmospheric environment, or in a combination of these
elements. Decay can also manifest in the decadence of common
values, or in the conflict between values between different groups
of individuals/factions. For example, leadership can be evil,
primarily profit seeking and dominative, while subordinates are
subjugated. (Fergnani & Song, 2020, p. 8)
Image Credit: Fergnani & Song,
2020
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Continuation of current Capitalistic Status Quo: 7 examples out of 7 novels
examined = 100%
Descriptions Summarized: All of the novels featured (100%) a
backdrop that reflects the current capitalistic status quo. Characters
go about their business by participating in easily recognizable jobs
such as pizza delivery driver, looking for a big TV reality hit, or
being called out of semi-retirement. Two of the novels reviewed
illustrate the potential for both massive fortune and poverty.
Corporations reign unalloyed: 3 examples out of 7 novels examined = 43%
Descriptions Summarized: Corporations did not play a significant role in
the novels examined. There is one example of the establishment of a vast
economic empire and two examples where corporate interests overwhelmed
military operations and subverted the missions for nefarious purposes.
Governmental power is absent or sidelined: 3 examples out of 7 novels
examined = 43%
Descriptions Summarized: It is not surprising that the absence of
governmental power would reflect in a low score. When national power is
mentioned, it is in the form of semi-independent nations or personalized in
the form of calls or contact from old friends who work in the government.
Corporate power tends to sabotage government efforts.
Current technology grows steadily: 8 examples out of 7 novels = 114%
Descriptions Summarized: The advancement of current technology is one
of two major themes that ran throughout all the novels examined. Readers
will instantly recognize the virtual realms, quantum computing, computer
viruses, and metaverses from their own daily interactions with technology
(albeit in much more advanced and dramatic forms). Some of the more
advanced technological innovations require more imagination. However, the
intellectual leap to bio-engineered lab rats, towing dead satellites out of
earth's orbit, and the development of a deadly new disease using
nanotechnology, is still fairly easy to make.
Hints of societal collapse or decay: 8 examples out of 7 novels = 114%
Descriptions Summarized: The second major theme that ran throughout all
the novels examined is the ever-present threat of societal collapse. This is
likely due to the fiction writers' need to build a sense of urgency and danger
into their stories. Numerous wars are fought, and even players in virtual
games are willing to kill one another to win. Characters are motivated to
undertake a search-and-destroy mission, track down a disgraced athlete, and
survive in a total surveillance environment. Adversaries kidnap the children
of prominent members of society or attempt to conceal the development of a
new bio-weapon by burying thousands of victims in mass graves.
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Appendix B.
Qualitative Analysis of the Archetype:
Threats and New Hope
In this archetype, no significant change affects mankind, and
human life conditions are very similar to the present. However,
an imminent catastrophic or apocalyptic event or phenomenon
threatens mankind's existence. This impending occurrence can
take various forms, including environmental disasters, man-
made destructions, or aliens’ invasion. National and
supranational governmental bodies or military organizations
collaborate to devise a global plan of rescue, while the private
sector is less relevant. Individuals sacrifice their personal
wealth, affections, and even their lives for the common good in
order to save the world as humanity is united to fight a common
enemy. (Fergnani & Song, 2020, p. 9)
Imminent catastrophic or apocalyptic event: 9 examples out of 9 novels
examined = 100%
Descriptions Summarized: With nine novels in the sample, Threats and
New Hopes represents the largest category of the novels examined. This
category could be considered the "most popular," and it would be interesting
to compare sales data to see if there is any correlation between the number of
Image Credit: Fergnani & Song,
2020
Alternative Futures
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novels represented and their popular appeal. All of the novels featured
(100%) an imminent catastrophic event. However, the nature of the events
varied wildly from time travel to aliens, an artificial black hole, AI, genetic
manipulation, nanotechnology.
National and supranational governmental bodies or military organizations
collaborate: 11 examples out of 9 novels examined = 120%
Descriptions Summarized: The role of national and supranational
governmental bodies for addressing catastrophic events dominates this
category. The roles of the governments, global corporations, and the one
billionaire that are portrayed in these novels alternate between good and evil,
with the majority of the portrayals leaning toward evil. In all instances, the
severity and magnitude of the crisis require the absolute highest level of
authority.
The private sector is less relevant: 1 example out of 9 novels examined =
11% Descriptions Summarized: There is only a single example of the private
sector mentioned in any of the novels examined. But even this was in a
passing reference that compared the lives of the masses against the wealth of
the elite. Small problems do not seem to be viewed as significant.
Individuals sacrifice for the common good: 7 examples out of 9 novels
examined = 78%
Descriptions Summarized: Consistent with the overarching theme of the
importance of the centralization of power is the idea of individual sacrifice
for the greater good. In this category of science fiction, the role of the
individual is seen in the context of the larger events happening (typically) on
a global scale.
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Appendix C.
Qualitative Analysis of the Archetype:
Wasteworlds
In this archetype, a catastrophic event or phenomenon has
already occurred, bringing about substantial transformations on a
global scale. The atmospheric environment is often perniciously
hit, forcing humans to adapt to drastic life conditions. Often times,
on the backdrop of severe resources’ scarcity, human civilization
has regressed to sustenance level. The market economy has given
way to more rudimentary economic systems, such as barter or the
use of water, oil, or sand as currencies. Few survivors live in
scattered tribal communities, struggling for life and often
exploited by gangs of outlaws. Tyrannical local leaders often
subjugate these defenseless communities, expropriating their
resources. Individuals fight against each other for survival. Other
times, humans abandon earth altogether due to unliveable
environmental conditions, this being a variation of the archetype,
albeit with the same initial premises. (Fergnani & Song, 2020, p.
9)
Image Credit: Fergnani & Song,
2020
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A catastrophic event or phenomenon has already occurred: 6 examples out
of 5 novels = 120%
Descriptions Summarized: All of the novels in the Wasteworlds category
were built around descriptions of catastrophic events ranging from the
aftermath of a bio war in the lands of the Drowned Cities to a hive
intelligence that is close to consuming what remains of humanity to
apocalyptical global-scale flooding. One author even employs two
catastrophic events simultaneously. The first is a human-machine Singularity
that has nearly rendered humans extinct. The second is contact with an
extraterrestrial force that is destroying the solar system's planets.
Substantial transformations on a global scale: 4 examples out of 5 novels
examined = 80%
Descriptions Summarized: While all of the novels examined illustrated
substantial transformations, two novels only portrayed those transformations
at a regional, rather than global, level. Another book revolved around two
substantial transformations (nanotechnology run rampant and contact with
extraterrestrial life) occurring simultaneously, bringing humanity to the verge
of extinction. Mystical creatures inhabiting the world and catastrophic
weather events complete the category.
Forcing humans to adapt to drastic life conditions: 4 examples out of 5
novels examined = 80%
Descriptions Summarized: From visions of a dark future where violence,
terror, and grief touch everyone to a hopeful vision where people respond to
calamity by coming together in cooperation, all of the characters in the
Wasteworlds category must struggle to survive. One notable example finds
employment by prepping corpses for funerals.
Human civilization has regressed to sustenance level: 3 examples out of 5
novels examined = 60%
Descriptions Summarized: Just over half of the novels in the Wasteworlds
category emphasize the struggle for survival occurring at the subsistence
level. Violence is prevalent, sometimes coming from gangs or criminals or
vengeful bands of soldiers. In another case, a family must come to grips with
the loss of their home and other essential resources for survival.
Fight for survival; individuals, outlaws, tyrants: 3 examples out of 5 novels
examined = 60%
Descriptions Summarized: Violence in many forms is a recurring theme in
the Wasteworlds category. This theme is very closely tied with the reduction
to subsistence level existence. Characters must respond by becoming violent
themselves and learning to fight back. The external violence of the
environment thus triggers a violent internal response.
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Appendix D.
Qualitative Analysis of the Archetype:
The Powers that Be
In this archetype, a catastrophic event or phenomenon, often
man-made, has already occurred. Although this has left a scar
on the human species to the point that population is often
significantly reduced, mankind resumes its path to progress
quickly thereafter. However, strict totalitarian or dictatorial
powers emerge from this checkered past, ostensibly to carefully
prevent the occurrence of other man-made devastating events
or phenomena in the future. Technology is advanced, but
centralized in the hands of governmental bodies and used as an
instrument of control. Running parallel to technical progress,
citizens’ rights, happiness, freedom, and emotions are limited
from above. Individuals attempt to emancipate, to rebel against
existing regimes, or to uproot them. (Fergnani & Song, 2020,
pp. 10-11)
Image Credit: Fergnani & Song,
2020
Alternative Futures
18
A catastrophic event or phenomenon, often man-made, has already
occurred: 4 examples out of 5 novels examined = 80%
Descriptions Summarized: One of the novels did not mention a catastrophic
event in the back-cover copy. Zero-Day Rising by T.C. Weber is the third in
a series where a giant media corporation has taken over the world. So even
though the back-cover copy does not mention a catastrophic event, the novel
is explicitly built around one (100%). The other forms of catastrophic events
result from corruption, tyranny, and invasive social app technology.
Although it has left a scar, mankind resumes its path to progress: 3
examples out of 5 novels = 60%
Descriptions Summarized: Just over half of the novels in The Powers that
Be category provide descriptions of humanity's return to a path of progress. A
better description of this theme would be that people struggle to live with a
"new normal" that many find intolerable. In a totalitarian state, most people
decide the best strategy is to obey and not cause trouble.
Strict totalitarian or dictatorial (Governmental) powers emerge: 7 examples
out of 5 novels = 140%
Descriptions Summarized: All of the novels in this category described
visions of a dystopian future where great centralized powers oppress citizens.
Two of the novels offered multiple descriptions on their back-cover copy,
emphasizing the importance of this theme. Of special note is that the theme
of totalitarian control appears in many other Archetypes, indicating a broad
popular concern with the subject that is worthy of further investigation.
Technology is advanced, but centralized and used for control: 6 examples
out of 5 novels = 120%
Descriptions Summarized: The technology described in this archetype is
recognizable, but advanced, and it is always portrayed negatively as a tool for
social control. The message appears to tap into a deep-seated fear of the
growth in technology that humanity is experiencing. This archetype gives
voice and color to those fears.
Individuals attempt to emancipate, rebel, or uproot the government: 10
examples out of 5 novels examined = 200%
Descriptions Summarized: The human response to totalitarian control and
fears of technology is an overwhelming rejection of the State and its tools of
control. Ten examples of this rejection were found by examining only five
novels (200%). The call to action is clear and insistent. Humanity longs to be
free, and the moral obligation of the protagonist is to fight to bring the system
down.
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Appendix E.
Qualitative Analysis of the Archetype:
Disarray
In this archetype, although in the absence of apparent
transformational changes in the economy or atmospheric
environment, mankind faces structural endogenous problems. The
globe is plagued by any of the following: endemic crime, social
unrest and disorder, widespread poverty, ignorance, infertility,
violent confrontation and war, famines, or pandemics; or by a
combination of these. Although the private sector is still present,
military and policing organizations, either official or non-official,
have a more central role in this future. Individual endeavors zero in
on restoring or maintaining justice, order, or protection of citizens.
(Fergnani & Song, 2020, p. 11)
Image Credit: Fergnani & Song,
2020
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20
Absence of apparent transformational changes in the economy or
atmospheric environment: 3 examples out of 3 novels examined = 100%
Descriptions Summarized: The whole point of the Disarray archetype is to
explore a recognizable world where the systems and supports that modern
people rely on are failing. It acknowledges our existence as fragile and admits
that our current existence is dependent on countless variables over which we
have no control. While there is no apparent transformational change in
society, this archetype gives voice to the fear that a collapse will soon come if
we cannot find a way to restore order. In each book examined, technology
featured prominently and negatively.
Mankind faces endemic crime, social unrest and disorder, widespread
poverty, ignorance, infertility, violent confrontation and war, famines, or
pandemics: 10 examples out of 3 novels examined = 333%
Descriptions Summarized: No theme of any archetype examined has been
so heavily expressed as a percentage of the novels reviewed (333%). The
archetype Disarray absolutely revels in long expositions about how broken
things are. It may be considered the "bleak" or "hopeless" archetype.
Everything is falling apart, and the problems seem insurmountable. There is a
sense of doom as one stares into the face of oncoming calamity.
Although the private sector is still present, military and policing
organizations, either official or non-official, have a more central role in this
future: 2 examples out of 3 novels examined = 67%
Descriptions Summarized: Who will people turn to disaster when threatens?
The most likely response is to call "911" and hope law enforcement will
arrive in time. Or perhaps the nature of the threat is so grave that the military
must be called out. However, clear solutions are not evident, and the low
response rate for this category (67%) indicates that there is very little hope
that effective help will come from traditional sources.
Individual endeavors zero in on restoring or maintaining justice, order, or
protection of citizens: 2 examples out of 3 novels examined = 66%
Descriptions Summarized: If there is a specific problem to address, people
feel that action can be taken to restore order. For instance, one can race to
restore the electrical grid before the nuclear reactors overheat. However, if
the endemic nature of the crisis is severe, the characters' struggles become
more intellectual, philosophical, and spiritual.
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Appendix F.
Qualitative Analysis of the Archetype:
Inversion
In this archetype, the role of mankind is turned upside down, as
it is outpaced or subjugated by a superior civilization, agent, or
organism. Human beings no longer dominate the planet. Often,
they are instead dominated by creatures of higher physical
prowess, of which they become prey. Alien species invading the
planet or the entire galaxy is an example, either monstrous or
anthropomorphic in appearance. However, this superior entity
could also manifest itself in more subtle manners, such as an
ostensible creator or supervisor with whom mankind ought not
interfere. (Fergnani & Song, 2020, p. 11)
Image Credit: Fergnani & Song,
2020
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The role of mankind is turned upside down: 5 examples out of 7 novels
examined = 71%
Descriptions Summarized: The Inversion archetype highlights what is
perhaps the greatest strength of science fiction for use as a tool for futures
and foresight study. Unbound by the limitations of the "normal" world,
authors are free to create anything they can imagine. It is the ability to portray
images of what would otherwise be considered unimaginable futures that fills
the void that is leftover from traditional modes of thought. Political, military,
and corporate leaders may all struggle with being locked into specific modes
of thought. The Inversion archetype exists to smash through those barriers.
However, with creative freedom comes ideas that are often very strange;
cybernetic daemons, man-made black holes, consciousness emerging from
the internet, and time just stopping for no apparent reason are all found
within this archetype.
Human beings no longer dominate the planet: 7 examples out of 7 novels
examined = 100%
Descriptions Summarized: Humanity is accustomed to being the apex
species on earth. All of the novels examined consider a world where this fact
is no longer true. The idea upends one of the rock-solid aspects of the human
condition and allows for a free-fall of ideas filled with incredible twists and
unexpected surprises.
Dominated by creatures of higher physical prowess: 4 examples out of 7
novels examined = 57%
Descriptions Summarized: Aliens from space, aliens from beneath the sea,
and alien life forms emerging from the internet are all examples of creatures
that may knock humanity off of our position of dominance and subjugate us
all to the will of another species. It is an idea designed to jar us out of
preconceived notions of human existence.
Superior entity could also manifest itself in more subtle manners, such as an
ostensible creator or supervisor: 5 examples out of 7 novels examined = 71%
Descriptions Summarized: In addition to alien life forms, there are also
other, more subtle means by which humanity can be subjugated. This is a
realm of mysterious consciousness and great unseen forces that tap into
deeper levels of truth. There may be an environmental backlash caused by
humanity's abuse of the ecosystem, reaping the consequences of meddling
with the genetic code, or building machines capable of self-awareness.
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Role of Individual is to understand: 6 examples out of 7 novels examined =
86% Descriptions Summarized: The authors of science fiction in the Inversion
archetype tend to spend prodigious amounts of time following their
characters as they attempt to understand the nature of the mysterious or alien
forces they are encountering. In this sense, the role of the protagonist is more
akin to that of a student struggling with a growing awareness that things are
not as they appear, rather than as a protagonist who is heroically driven to
solve a problem. The Inversion archetype challenges us to consider the
frightening possibilities that there is more to human existence than we
realize.
