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Abstract
Technical and economic developments in battery and fast-charging technologies could soon make fuel cell electric vehicles, which run on hydrogen, superfluous in road transport.
To read the full-text of this research, you can request a copy directly from the author.
... For obtaining long-term effects on electric vehicle (EV) adoption are necessary emission regulations and other deterrent measures against ICE vehicles (Martins et al., 2023;Harrison and Thiel, 2017). Although other technologies, such as FCEV or ICEV fuelled by biofuels/eFuels, are being developed, they are expected to play only a marginal role in the passenger car market until 2035 (Plötz, 2022). ...
... This feature reflects the cost of credit, and higher interest rates make public investment in infrastructure more expensive. Given that public investment in charging infrastructure is critical for the uptake of EVs, low interest rates are desirable (Das, 2010 (Plötz, 2022). In 2020 and the following years the EU increased the share of new EV registrations each year from 3.5% in 2019 to 11% in 2020, to 18% in 2021 and to 22% in 2022 EAFO (2022a). ...
Electric vehicles (EVs) play a crucial role in the ongoing road transportation transition. European regulations on greenhouse gas emissions significantly boosted EV new registrations across most European Union (EU) countries. To model their future development in Europe, we adopt a hierarchical clustering approach, which allows us to group the countries under 7 clusters based on how evolved they are in the transition to net zero-emission passenger car new registrations. Subsequently, we select representative countries for each identified cluster. By using these representative countries, we run a scenario analysis for each cluster to obtain the electrification path of the different passenger car markets across the EU until 2035. In our scenario, innovator clusters are well-positioned to achieve the CO
zero-emission passenger car target before 2035. However, other clusters, represented by Poland and Greece, are lagging behind even after 2030 and might face challenges to reach the target in 2035.
... Reducing fuel cell costs and improving the cost and availability of hydrogen depend on achieving larger market penetration and better economies of scale, yet no one wants to buy until costs come down. This is exacerbated by negative reports about the utility of hydrogen in popular media and academic literature [50,51]. ...
... [60]. Beyond a few dismissive reports regarding FCEVs [50,51], discussions have focused on comparing respective obstacles and opportunities. BEVs generally have lower costs and are compelling for shorter distances, i.e., intra-city and regional moves of less than 300 km up to 500 km [60][61][62][63][64][65][66][67]. ...
Background: Pressure is growing in North America for heavy-duty, long-haul trucking to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, ultimately to zero. With freight volumes rising, improvement depends on zero-emissions technologies, e.g., battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs). However, emissions reductions are constrained by technological and commercial realities. BEVs and FCEVs are expensive. Further, BEVs depend on existing electricity grids and FCEVs rely on steam–methane reforming (SMR) or electrolysis using existing grids to produce hydrogen. Methods: This study assembles publicly available data from reputable sources to estimate breakeven vehicle purchase prices under various conditions to match conventional (diesel) truck prices. It also estimates GHG emissions reductions. Results: BEVs face numerous obstacles, including (1) limited range; (2) heavy batteries and reduced cargo capacity; (3) long recharging time; and (4) uncertain hours-of-service (HOS) implications. On the other hand, FCEVs face two primary obstacles: (1) cost and availability of hydrogen and (2) cost of fuel cells. Conclusions: In estimating emissions reductions and economic feasibility of BEVs and FCEVs versus diesel trucks, the primary contributions of this study involve its consideration of vehicle prices, carbon taxes, and electricity grid capacity constraints and demand fees. As electricity grids reduce their emissions intensity, grid congestion and capacity constraints, opportunities arise for BEVs. On the other hand, rising electricity demand fees benefit FCEVs, with SMR-produced hydrogen a logical starting point. Further, carbon taxation appears to be less important than other factors in the transition to zero-emission trucking.
... Bei Lieferfahrzeugen, Stadtbussen sowie bei Eisenbahnen stellt sich die Situation ähnlich dar. Selbst bei Langstrecken-LKW weist das Fraunhofer Institut für System und Innovationsforschung darauf hin, dass, falls 2027 die ersten Wasserstoff-LKWs verfügbar sind, bereits die batterieelektrischen LKW der zweiten Generation auf den Straßen sein werden (Plötz, 2022). Das Zeitfenster für die erfolgreiche Markteinführung von Brennstoffzellen-LKW wäre damit faktisch geschlossen und es gäbe für Wasserstoff-LKW nur noch eine kleine Nische, nämlich den Transport schwerer Lasten in sehr entlegene Gebiete (Plötz, 2022 (Zachmann et al., 2022). ...
... Selbst bei Langstrecken-LKW weist das Fraunhofer Institut für System und Innovationsforschung darauf hin, dass, falls 2027 die ersten Wasserstoff-LKWs verfügbar sind, bereits die batterieelektrischen LKW der zweiten Generation auf den Straßen sein werden (Plötz, 2022). Das Zeitfenster für die erfolgreiche Markteinführung von Brennstoffzellen-LKW wäre damit faktisch geschlossen und es gäbe für Wasserstoff-LKW nur noch eine kleine Nische, nämlich den Transport schwerer Lasten in sehr entlegene Gebiete (Plötz, 2022 (Zachmann et al., 2022). ...
Das im Februar 2024 von den Scientists for Future publizierte Buch führt auf ca. 150 Seiten in acht zentrale Themen der Wärmewende ein und soll als aktuelle, einfach zu lesende Handreichung für alle dienen, die sich gegenwärtig privat, beruflich oder aufgrund ihrer Aufgaben in Verwaltung und Kommunalpolitik mit dem Thema beschäftigen wollen.
... However, the development of the hydrogen fuel cell powertrain is slowed by its high cost. A researcher reckoned that if truck manufacturers did not reduce the costs of fuel cell trucks soon, such vehicles would never succeed in low-carbon road transport [1]. Therefore, it is essential to reduce the costs of the hydrogen fuel cell powertrain. ...
... In addition, to reduce the degradation, reducing the times of load changing is suggested. Therefore, a thermostat strategy is recommended as shown in equation (1). This EMS has the potential in reducing the fuel consumption cost and the performance degradation cost of the HFCS as a study [7] reckoned. ...
High cost is an obstacle to applying a hydrogen fuel cell-battery powertrain to road transport. Proper component sizing (CS) and energy management strategy (EMS) can reduce the cost. Many researchers exploit optimization method to manage CS and EMS. However, the mechanism for economical CS and EMS is seldom explored. To bridge the gap, three principles of economical CS are presented: (1) Give the responsibility for energy performance (such as driving range) to the hydrogen fuel cell system (HFCS) instead of the battery. (2) Put the demand for high power on the battery instead of the HFCS. (3) Downsize the rated power of the HFCS and the capacity of the battery to the utmost but avoid the depletion of the state of charge of the battery. The mathematical models of the above principles are established to size the components. For economical EMS, a thermostat EMS is recommended. The operating point of the HFCS is determined by the life-cycle range of a vehicle. A case study of a hydrogen sightseeing car is conducted to expound the proposed method.
... Industry and research are therefore pushing for market maturity and technical progress of various solutions for zero-emission vehicles [7][8][9]. In particular, due to their high efficiency, possible rapid market maturity, and the ramp up of a public charging network, which is being driven forward by politics and industry, BETs are seen as the most promising option for the initial transition towards zero-emission vehicles [10][11][12]. In order to achieve the emission targets mentioned, a rapid increase in the market share of BETs is necessary, which requires the active purchase decision of a truck operator for a BET. ...
... Subsequently, the cell temperature can be calculated, according to Equation (11). ...
With growing demands to save greenhouse gases, the rapid market introduction of BET will become increasingly important, with truck manufacturers announcing various models entering the market in the near future. Soon, truck operators will be faced with deciding which battery capacity and cell chemistry to choose in their next purchase. In this study, we evaluate the choice of battery capacity, regarding feasibility and cost-effectiveness, for trucks using NMC and LFP cell chemistry. Our results show that higher energy density allows larger NMC batteries to be installed, resulting in the ability to transport higher payloads at low charging powers. The LFP chemistry has to rely on higher charging powers of up to 700kW to transport the same payloads. When asked to choose a battery capacity for the individual use case, the smallest battery size should always be selected when only charging powers up to 300kW are available. However, the reduction in publicly charged energy can lead to cost advantages of larger battery capacities at higher charging powers. When deciding between the two cell chemistries, the LFP chemistry shows advantages in most cases. Only at high payloads and low charging powers the NMC chemistry shows cost advantages.
... Bei Lieferfahrzeugen, Stadtbussen sowie bei Eisenbahnen stellt sich die Situation ähnlich dar. Selbst bei Langstrecken-LKW weist das Fraunhofer Institut für System und Innovationsforschung darauf hin, dass, falls 2027 die ersten Wasserstoff-LKWs verfügbar sind, bereits die batterieelektrischen LKW der zweiten Generation auf den Straßen sein werden (Plötz, 2022). Das Zeitfenster für die erfolgreiche Markteinführung von Brennstoffzellen-LKW wäre damit faktisch geschlossen und es gäbe für Wasserstoff-LKW nur noch eine kleine Nische, nämlich den Transport schwerer Lasten in sehr entlegene Gebiete (Plötz, 2022 (Zachmann et al., 2022). ...
... Selbst bei Langstrecken-LKW weist das Fraunhofer Institut für System und Innovationsforschung darauf hin, dass, falls 2027 die ersten Wasserstoff-LKWs verfügbar sind, bereits die batterieelektrischen LKW der zweiten Generation auf den Straßen sein werden (Plötz, 2022). Das Zeitfenster für die erfolgreiche Markteinführung von Brennstoffzellen-LKW wäre damit faktisch geschlossen und es gäbe für Wasserstoff-LKW nur noch eine kleine Nische, nämlich den Transport schwerer Lasten in sehr entlegene Gebiete (Plötz, 2022 (Zachmann et al., 2022). ...
Durch den russischen Krieg gegen die Ukraine, die Gaspreiskrise und den Streit um das Heizungsgesetz wird die Wärmewende öffentlich diskutiert. Im Rahmen des vom Umweltbundesamt geförderten Projekts Key Points der kommunalen Wärmewende haben die Scientists for Future handlungsorientierte Kurzinformationen zur Wärmewende erstellt, deren Kernbotschaften hier vorgestellt werden.
... In this framework, battery technology is a key point for this evolution [3] as the main component in terms of the performance, reliability, and affordability of hybrid and full−electric vehicles, thanks to recent technical and economic developments in battery and fast−charging technologies. ...
... where N corresponds to the identified number of cycles, and z i indicates whether cycle i is a full− or half−cycle and is used to include the rainflow cycle counting (RFC) algorithm. Thus, calendar aging and cycle aging are linear degradation processes with respect to the number of cycles and battery aging, and L b,tot can be expressed as the sum of these two contributions, as indicated by (3). ...
A huge increase in fast−charging stations will be necessary for the transition to EVs. Nevertheless, charging a battery pack at a higher C−rate impacts its state of health, accelerating its degradation. The present paper proposes a different and innovative approach that considers the daily routine of an EV Li−ion battery based on a standard driving cycle, including charging phases when the depth of discharge is 90%. Through dynamic modeling of the EV battery system, the state of charge evolution is determined for different charging C−rates, considering both real discharging and charging current profiles. Finally, by applying a suitable post−processing procedure, aging test features are defined, each being related to a specific EV battery working mode, including charging at a particular C−rate, considering the global battery operation during its lifespan. It is demonstrated that, according to the implemented procedure, fast−charging cycles at 50 kW reduce battery lifespan by about 17% with respect to charge in a 22 kW three−phase AC column, in parity with the discharge rate. Thus, this work can provide a deep insight into the expected massive penetration of electric vehicles, providing an estimate of battery useful life based on charging conditions.
... To achieve the target of climate neutrality and to fulfill current EU legislation, heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs), i.e. >12 t gross vehicle weight, also need to become zero emission vehicles (ZEV) (Breed et al 2021. Battery electric trucks (BETs) powered by electricity and stored in batteries have developed as the most promising solution to reduce road freight transport emissions (Plötz 2022, IEA 2023. Although there are currently few HDV BETs on European roads, manufacturers expect a sales share of up to 50% in the EU by 2030 (NOW 2023). ...
Battery electric trucks (BETs) are the most promising option for fast and large-scale CO2 emission reduction in road freight transport. Yet, the limited range and longer charging times compared to diesel trucks make long-haul BET applications challenging, so a comprehensive fast charging network for BETs is required. However, little is known about optimal truck charging locations for long-haul trucking in Europe. Here we derive optimized truck charging networks consisting of publicly accessible locations across the continent. Based on European truck traffic flow estimates for 2030 and actual truck stop locations we construct a long-term charging network that minimizes the total number of required locations. Our approach introduces an origin-destination (OD) pair sampling method and includes local capacity constraints to compute an optimized stepwise network expansion along the highest demand routes in Europe. For an electrification target of 15% BET share in long-haul and without depot charging, our results suggest that about 91% of electric long-haul truck traffic across Europe can be enabled already with a network of 1,000 locations, while 500 locations would suffice for about 50%. We furthermore show how the coverage of OD flows scales with the number of locations and the size of the stations. Ideal locations to cover many truck trips are at highway intersections and along major European road freight corridors (TEN-T core network).
... Unlike other transport sectors, 42 continued demand for liquid hydrocarbon fuels entails that some SAF production capacity will remain in place beyond 2050. This is a result of current technology adoption trajectories and the typical operation lifetime of commercial aircraft. ...
Large-scale sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production and use is essential to achieving net-zero aviation by 2050.
... The interim target of 45% lower emissions must already be achieved by 2030. The most advanced and cost-efficient propulsion technology currently available for achieving such targets is the battery electric truck (BET) [3][4][5]. Therefore, several Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) have announced long-haul capable BET being available in 2025 [6][7][8]. From the customer's point of view, the low total cost of ownership (TCO) and long lifespan are the essential requirements for today's diesel trucks. ...
... Hydrogen is still a promising candidate for revolutionizing the energy system and reaching climate neutrality by 2050, but this would require addressing the following technical, financial, and safety issues [201]. Also, further advancements in battery and fast charging technologies can necessitate hydrogen fuel cell vehicles' competitiveness in the road transport sector [202]. Hydrogen storage, transmission, application issues, and hazards must be thoroughly evaluated using risk and consequence assessment [203]. ...
Hydrogen is emerging as a critical player in transitioning to sustainable and renewable energy systems, serving roles in energy storage, grid balancing, and decarbonization. This paper explores various aspects of hydrogen, including its production through renewable-electricity-driven electrolysis, advanced storage techniques, and incorporation into current energy systems. It highlights primary electrolysis methods like PEM and alkaline, noting their improved efficiency and cost-effectiveness. Various hydrogen storage methods, such as physical, chemical, and advanced porous materials, are examined for their benefits and limitations. The review further explores hydrogen's integration into grid storage systems and microgrids to enhance energy reliability. It discusses hydrogen's application in fuel cells for electricity generation, focusing on technological advancements that improve efficiency and reduce costs. Additionally, the paper underscores hydrogen's crucial role in reducing CO2 emissions in industrial processes like steel production and its use in residential and commercial energy supply through combined heat and power systems. Economic aspects and supportive policies from regions are analyzed, highlighting the global efforts and policies supporting the potential hydrogen in renewable energy systems. This analysis emphasizes hydrogen's comprehensive role in enhancing renewable energy systems and achieving global sustainability objectives, providing a thorough review of recent progress and challenges.
... This includes electric road systems (ERS), which allow for dynamic power transfer to electric vehicles on the road 6,7 ; trucks with hydrogen fuel cells; or conventional HDVs with internal combustion engines that use power-to-liquid (PtL), also referred to as e-fuels, which are produced mostly with renewable electricity. [8][9][10][11] These options of direct or indirect electrification of HDVs have different properties concerning, on the one hand, energy SCIENCE FOR SOCIETY Battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) have emerged in the passenger car sector as the most promising option to de-fossilize transportation. But for heavy-duty vehicles, the technology space is open with alternative options. ...
... The literature shows that the cost-effectiveness of battery electric trucks is sensitive to driving patterns [4], whereas relatively uniform driving patterns are most suitable for electrification [4,9]. Hydrogen trucks could also be a part of the solution; however, previous studies mostly favour battery electric trucks [10,11]. The feasibility of battery electric trucks will likely be good [12], but fuel cells might be better for heavy-duty trucks on extra-long journeys [13]. ...
This paper investigates the competition between two charge point operators at the same site for future battery electric long-haul trucks. The charge point operators are located along one of the busiest highways in Sweden. The investigation is carried out using an agent-based model where trucks select charge point operators based on charging prices and the length of any queues, while charge point operators adjust their prices and number of chargers to improve their profitability. The study aims to predict conditions for trucks and charge point operators in a future public fast-charging market. Our findings indicate the potential for a well-functioning future public fast-charging market with small queuing problems, high utilisation, and reasonable prices for public fast charging. Assuming a price for electricity of EUR 0.08/kWh and a minimum profit margin of EUR 0.001/kWh for charge point operators, the findings indicate that the price level outside rush hours will be low, approximately EUR 0.1/kWh. The prices during rush hours will likely be much higher, but it is harder to predict the value due to uncertainties of how charge point operators will act in the future market. Still, from the model result, the price during rush hours is suggested to be just above EUR 0.5/kWh, with an average charging price of around EUR 0.15/kWh. It also seems likely that it is profitable for charge point operators to build enough chargers so that charging queues are short.
... Hydrogen also competes with natural gas in terms of infrastructure as many countries are currently envisaging to repurpose parts of their existing gas grid to transport hydrogen 38 . In addition, hydrogen competes with petroleum oil products in road transport, but faces stiff competition with electric vehicles 39 and increasingly also electric trucks 40,41 . In maritime shipping 29 and aviation 30 , hydrogen-based electrofuels are important mitigation options, particularly when the potential for fossil carbon capture and utilisation (CCU) and direct-air carbon capture and storage (DACCS) is limited 33 . ...
Green hydrogen is critical for decarbonising hard-to-electrify sectors, but faces high costs and investment risks. Here we define and quantify the green hydrogen ambition and implementation gap, showing that meeting hydrogen expectations will remain challenging despite surging announcements of projects and subsidies. Tracking 137 projects over three years, we identify a wide 2022 implementation gap with only 2% of global capacity announcements finished on schedule. In contrast, the 2030 ambition gap towards 1.5°C scenarios is gradually closing as the announced project pipeline has nearly tripled to 441 GW within three years. However, we estimate that, without carbon pricing, realising all these projects would require global subsidies of 1.2 - 2.6 trillion range), far exceeding announced subsidies. Given past and future implementation gaps, policymakers must prepare for prolonged green hydrogen scarcity. Policy support needs to secure hydrogen investments, but should focus on applications where hydrogen is indispensable.
... For those use cases hydrogen was seen as the main option for decarbonisation. As the battery technology has made great progress, this view has changed in recent years [60][61][62][63][64]. Now the electrification is seen as default option for most passenger vehicle applications and is even believed to be a feasible option for most heavy duty trucking [65]. ...
Hydrogen and its derivatives are important components to achieve climate policy goals, especially in terms of greenhouse gas neutrality. There is an ongoing controversial debate about the applications in which hydrogen and its derivatives should be used and to what extent. Typically, the estimation of hydrogen demand relies on scenario-based analyses with varying underlying assumptions and targets. This study establishes a new framework consisting of existing energy system simulation and optimisation models in order to assess the long-term price-elastic demand of hydrogen. The aim of this work is to shift towards an analysis of the hydrogen demand that is primarily driven by its price. This is done for the case of Germany because of the expected high hydrogen demand for the years 2025–2045. 15 wholesale price pathways were established, with final prices in 2045 between 56 €/MWh and 182 €/MWh. The results suggest that – if climate targets are to be achieved - even with high hydrogen prices (252 €/MWh in 2030 and 182 €/MWh in 2045) a significant hydrogen demand in the industry sector and the energy conversion sector is expected to emerge (318 TWh). Furthermore, the energy conversion sector has a large share of price sensitive hydrogen demand and therefore its demand strongly increases with lower prices. The road transportation sector will only play a small role in terms of hydrogen demand, if prices are low. In the decentralised heating for buildings no relevant demand will be seen over the considered price ranges, whereas the centralised supply of heat via heat grids increases as prices fall.
... Here, we find a 7%-46% contribution of hydrogen to long-distance shipping energy demand in 2050 in the net-zero scenarios, alongside a 10% contribution to the energy demanded from the iron and steel sector. Plö tz et al. argue that hydrogen may play a limited role in road freight transport, 34 which is consistent with our findings, even though our most aggressive scenario finds a 19% share of hydrogen in the heavy freight truck sector in 2050. However, the sudden hydrogen ramp-up in the heavy freight truck sector in the 2045-2050 time frame (Figures S6 Crucially, however, here we report a novel and important finding that has not received sufficient attention in the literature yet. ...
... However, high acquisition costs are currently hampering fast ZET market diffusion [9][10][11][12][13] . This culminates in an active and cross-national debate between industry, politics and academia about different measures and technological pathways of how to decarbonize HDVs 1, [14][15][16][17][18][19] , particularly about the respective roles of battery-electric trucks (BETs) and fuel cell trucks (FCETs) in future ZET fleets. ...
Low-carbon road freight transport is pivotal in mitigating global warming. Nonetheless, electrifying heavy-duty vehicles poses a tremendous challenge due to high technical requirements and cost competitiveness. Data on future truck costs are scarce and uncertain, complicating assessments of the future role of zero-emission truck (ZET) technologies. Here we derive most likely cost developments for price setting ZET components by meta forecasting from more than 200 original sources. We find that costs are primed to decline much faster than expected, with significant differences between scientific and near-market estimates. Specifically, battery system costs could drop by 64% to 75% and fall below €150 kWh⁻¹ by no later than 2035, whereas fuel cell system costs may exhibit even higher cost reductions but are unlikely to reach €100 kW⁻¹ before the early 2040s. This fast cost decline supports an optimistic view on the ZET market diffusion and has substantial implications for future energy and transport systems.
... For energy consumption in land-based transportation, two scenarios are assumed: Firstly, a comprehensive electrification scenario, where all final energy consumption for mobility is supplied directly via electricity, assuming that even long-haul truck traffic could be mostly electrified in the future [34]. Secondly, a scenario where 85% of useful energy consumption for transportation is covered by electricity and 15% by hydrogen (e.g., as fuel for heavy-duty vehicles). ...
... Haddad et al 2019, Konstantinou and Gkritza 2021, Trinko et al 2022, Konstantinou et al 2023 for the US and for European countries, including Austria (Link et al 2023), the Netherlands (Decisio 2022), France (Ministry of Transport 2021), Germany (Wietschel et al 2019), Sweden (Trafikverket 2021), and the UK (Nicolaides et al 2018, Ainalis et al 2020, Department for Transport 2021. In addition, the total cost of ownership (TCO) is expected to be similar for BEV and ERS and significantly lower than for hydrogen (ITF 2022, Noll et al 2022, Plötz 2022, Ainalis et al 2023, Andersson et al 2023. Research results emphasise that ERS can play a role in decarbonizing trucks, but studies also find that planning needs to step up in terms of deployment strategy (e.g. ...
Electrification of road transport is crucial to limit global warming. Battery electric vehicles (BEV) with stationary charging infrastructure have received considerable attention in the scientific literature for both cars and trucks, while dynamic charging via Electric Road Systems (ERS) has received much less attention and their future role in low-carbon road transport is uncertain. Here, we envision three potential scenarios for the future of ERS in European low-carbon transport. We sketch a potential European ERS network and discuss the political, technological, and market steps needed to realize these. We argue that existing field trials, tests, and research projects have collected sufficient evidence to make the next step: Decide and act. Decision-makers will never have perfect information about all aspects of ERS or competing technologies, but the urgency of the climate crisis requires a commitment one way or the other. A clear decision with respect to ERS would send a clear directive and would help focus time, effort, and money on the necessary infrastructure and policies to implement ambitious GHG abatement targets in road transport.
... For instance, Zhang et al. (2020) found that improvements in fuel efficiency, public transport management, and energy transition yielded greater emission reductions and better cost-effectiveness for CO 2 control in passenger transport compared to vehicle electrification, owing to the lower proportion of electric vehicles. Nevertheless, in terms of the application of clean energy vehicles, Plötz et al. (2022) observed that hydrogen technology for vehicles has significant emission reduction potential compared to electric vehicles, but lacks cost advantages due to the higher production cost. In addition, the adoption of economic policies is also an important approach to reduce carbon emissions in transportation, including carbon taxes, fuel taxes and parking fees, and subsidies for clean energy vehicle purchases (Solaymani et al., 2015;Culjkovic, 2018;Zhou et al., 2018). ...
... Several research studies show BETs' feasibility [13][14][15][16] and economic competitiveness [17][18][19] compared to today's diesel trucks. Previous work in the BET context deals with the topics of battery dimensioning [17,20,21] and cell selection [18,20,22]. ...
Battery electric trucks (BETs) represent a well-suited option for decarbonizing road freight transport to achieve climate targets in the European Union. However, lower ranges than the daily distance of up to 700 km make charging stops mandatory. This paper presents an online algorithm for optimal dynamic charging strategies for long-haul BET based on a dynamic programming approach. In several case studies, we investigate the advantages optimal strategies can bring compared to driver decisions. We further show which charging infrastructure characteristics in terms of charging power, density, and charging station availability should be achieved for BETs in long-haul applications to keep the additional time required for charging stops low. In doing so, we consider the dynamic handling of occupied charging stations for the first time in the context of BET. Our findings show that, compared to driver decisions, optimal charging strategies can reduce the time loss by half compared to diesel trucks. To keep the time loss compared to a diesel truck below 30 min a day, a BET with a 500 kWh battery would need a charging point every 50 km on average, a distributed charging power between 700 and 1500 kW, and an average charger availability above 75%. The presented method and the case studies' results' plausibility are interpreted within a comprehensive sensitivity analysis and subsequently discussed in detail. Finally, we transformed our findings into concrete recommendations for action for the efficient rollout of BETs in long-haul applications.
... Although hydrogen fuel cells offer promising advantages over battery systems for sustainable transportation, the widespread commercialization of green hydrogen for various end-use applications is hindered by several challenges. These challenges include concerns related to fuel cell efficiency, durability, size, robustness, state of health, current densities, power, methods for monitoring system performance, thermal and water management, volume and cost control, purification, and humidification [144]- [146]. Major challenges associated with green hydrogen utilization at the end-use level are observed in transportation, industrial, heat generation, and power sectors as well as in fuel cell applications, as depicted in Figure 7 [144]- [146]. ...
The decarbonization of hard-to-abate industries is crucial for keeping global warming to below 2°C. Green or renewable hydrogen, synthesized through water electrolysis, has emerged as a sustainable alternative for fossil fuels in energy-intensive sectors such as aluminum, cement, chemicals, steel, and transportation. However, the scalability of green hydrogen production faces challenges including infrastructure gaps, energy losses, excessive power consumption, and high costs throughout the value chain. Therefore, this study analyzes the challenges within the green hydrogen value chain, focusing on the development of nascent technologies. Presenting a comprehensive synthesis of contemporary knowledge, this study assesses the potential impacts of green hydrogen on hard-to-abate sectors, emphasizing the expansion of clean energy infrastructure. Through an exploration of emerging renewable hydrogen technologies, the study investigates aspects such as economic feasibility, sustainability assessments, and the achievement of carbon neutrality. Additionally, considerations extend to the potential for large-scale renewable electricity storage and the realization of net-zero goals. The findings of this study suggest that emerging technologies have the potential to significantly increase green hydrogen production, offering affordable solutions for decarbonization. The study affirms that global-scale green hydrogen production could satisfy up to 24% of global energy needs by 2050, resulting in the abatement of 60 gigatons of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions - equivalent to 6% of total cumulative
CO
2
emission reductions. To comprehensively evaluate the impact of the hydrogen economy on ecosystem decarbonization, this article analyzes the feasibility of three business models that emphasize choices for green hydrogen production and delivery. Finally, the study proposes potential directions for future research on hydrogen valleys, aiming to foster interconnected hydrogen ecosystems.
... Hydrogen and ammonia development are seen as crucial pathways towards decarbonization. However, concerns regarding their high cost and low efficiency have sparked skepticism about their viability for future commercialization and adoption as mainstream road transportation energy sources, as evidenced by negative sentiments from Japan and South Korea's automotive companies, some of which have reduced or halted hydrogen fuel vehicle production [26]. Despite this, numerous countries continue to endorse and implement hydrogen and ammonia development initiatives. ...
... Direct electrification using BEVs has substantial efficiency advantages over hydrogen use due to the energy conversion losses in production and utilisation of hydrogen in FCVs 18 . Despite the development of numerous vehicle models, particularly for medium freight trucks 19 , electrification is not currently a viable option for larger vehicles that are often used for long-distance transportation 20 . Fuel cell technology for heavy-duty vehicles is still in the early stages of development and deployment 20 . ...
The road freight sector faces significant challenges in decarbonisation, driven by high energy demand and limited availability of low-emission fuels and commercialised zero-emission vehicles. This study investigates intangible costs associated with advanced electric and hydrogen-powered trucks, including recharging/refuelling time, cargo capacity limitations, and buyer reluctance towards emerging technologies. Utilising a comprehensive whole-systems modelling approach considering low- and zero-emission fuels, inter-sectoral dynamics, and the carbon budget, we explore cost-optimal decarbonisation pathways for heavy, medium, and light trucks. Scenario and sensitivity analyses reveal the following insights: (1) Electric trucks dominate the market under mitigation pathways across all weight categories. However, the inclusion of intangible costs triggers a shift, leading to the emergence of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles for heavy trucks, while battery electric vehicles are preferred for medium and small trucks. (2) Prioritising heavy truck decarbonisation and taking early action are crucial to avoid carbon lock-in effects. (3) Considering limited decarbonisation options, where electric and hydrogen-fuelled trucks are pivotal, this research highlights the significance of policy instruments targeting operational expenditures over conventional purchase price incentives. Such policies offer dual benefits by supporting truck owners and directing incentives more precisely towards achieving measurable emission reductions.
... However, challenges including higher costs, lack of hydrogen refueling infrastructure, and limited longevity of fuel cells must be overcome for larger-scale FCEV development 18,21 . Thus, the efficiency, value and development of FCEVs in the short term remain uncertain 22,23 . In the future, the increasing scale of the hydrogen economy might decrease the cost of the hydrogen supply, improving the advantages of FCEVs 24 . ...
Flexibility has become increasingly important considering the intermittency of variable renewable energy in low-carbon energy systems. Electrified transportation exhibits great potential to provide flexibility. This article analyzed and compared the flexibility values of battery electric vehicles and fuel cell electric vehicles for planning and operating interdependent electricity and hydrogen supply chains while considering battery degradation costs. A cross-scale framework involving both macro-level and micro-level models was proposed to compute the profits of flexible EV refueling/charging with battery degradation considered. Here we show that the flexibility reduction after considering battery degradation is quantified by at least 4.7% of the minimum system cost and enlarged under fast charging and low-temperature scenarios. Our findings imply that energy policies and relevant management technologies are crucial to shaping the comparative flexibility advantage of the two transportation electrification pathways. The proposed cross-scale methodology has broad implications for the assessment of emerging energy technologies with complex dynamics.
... Although there is an increasing trend towards the development of battery-electric trucks (e.g., [44]), the use of hydrogen in heavy-duty trucks offers still a great potential because still insufficient battery capacities, the long charging time and the resulting short travelling ranges pose a problem. While Diesel and hydrogen vehicles have a refueling time of <20 min, this time can range from 30 min to up to 11 h for battery-electric heavy-duty trucks [45]. ...
... Hydrogen fuel cells are suitable for the decarbonization of heavy-duty and long-distance transportation with heavy-load-weight and high-mileage requirements. The future development of fuel cell vehicles is predicted to focus on heavy-duty trucks, long-distance passenger cars, and hydrogen-powered hybrid trains [4,5]. However, the small atomic radius of hydrogen promotes its easy leakage, resulting in combustion and explosion [6]. ...
... Also contributing to the high cost is the low level of integrated efficiency that originates from several transformations and operations of transportation and storage, starting with gas production and other primary resource systems for converting chemical energy into electrical or mechanical energy. Thus, the final efficiency of HFCVs is claimed to be at a level of only 25-35%, while that of BEVs, in comparison, can reach 70-90% [37]. ...
About 95% of current hydrogen production uses technologies involving primary fossil resources. A minor part is synthesized by low-carbon and close-to-zero-carbon-footprint methods using RESs. The significant expansion of low-carbon hydrogen energy is considered to be a part of the “green transition” policies taking over in technologically leading countries. Projects of hydrogen synthesis from natural gas with carbon capture for subsequent export to European and Asian regions poor in natural resources are considered promising by fossil-rich countries. Quality changes in natural resource use and gas grids will include (1) previously developed scientific groundwork and production facilities for hydrogen energy to stimulate the use of existing natural gas grids for hydrogen energy transport projects; (2) existing infrastructure for gas filling stations in China and Russia to allow the expansion of hydrogen-fuel-cell vehicles (HFCVs) using typical “mini-plant” projects of hydrogen synthesis using methane conversion technology; (3) feasibility testing for different hydrogen synthesis plants at medium and large scales using fossil resources (primarily natural gas), water and atomic energy. The results of this study will help focus on the primary tasks for quality changes in natural resource and gas grid use. Investments made and planned in hydrogen energy are assessed.
... As MOSTACHI is a cost minimizing simulation tool, hydrogen fuel cell trucks are excluded due to expectations of levelized costs higher than for internal combustion engine trucks (ICETs) [21][22][23][24][25] , which are included. Plug-in or ERS hybrids may have a role to play as a transitional technology, but the only zero-exhaust emission option in the simulation is battery electric trucks (BETs), mainly to reduce the computational complexity. ...
This study addresses the pressing issue of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the road freight sector. We investigate whether Electric Road Systems (ERS) for heavy duty trucks are a viable solution for the European Union to align the sector with economy-wide GHG reduction targets. Results are based on simulations in MOSTACHI, a new model for studying interaction effects between competing charging infrastructure and cost-minimizing vehicle operators. ERS impact is assessed on transport cost, GHG emissions, resource demand, and competing charging infrastructure. We find that for ERS to be a no-regret investment, an accompanying policy is needed that penalizes non-participation. This ensures the economies of scale necessary for the ERS infrastructure’s viability and reduces transport cost on average. With policy, ERS increases battery-electric truck uptake and GHG reductions and reduces demand for batteries and fossil and renewable fuels, throughout the infrastructure lifetime.
Green hydrogen produced by electrolysis with renewable electricity can be used directly or in synthetic fuels (e-fuels) to decarbonize road, rail, marine, and air transportation. System inefficiencies during hydrogen or e-fuel production, storage, transportation, dispensing, and use lead to approximately 80–90% loss of the initial electrical energy input. Electric-powered ground, marine, and air transport is approximately 3–8 times more energy efficient than hydrogen alternatives. Renewable electricity sources in the U.S. are insufficient to support hydrogen production for light-duty vehicles. Green hydrogen should be used strategically in heavy-duty road, rail, aviation, and marine transportation, where electrification alternatives are constrained by load and range. Energy intensity for hydrogen transport measured by renewable electricity per unit of service follows the current trends for petroleum-fueled transport. For freight, ships and rail are the least intensive modes, followed by heavy-duty trucks, then aircraft: 0.04, 0.2, 2, and 20 MJ per t-km, respectively.
The recent development of battery electric trucks (BETs) suggests that they could play a vital role in transitioning to zero-emission road freight. To facilitate this transition, it is important to understand under which conditions BETs can be a viable alternative to internal combustion engine trucks (ICETs). Concurrently, the advancement of autonomous driving technology adds uncertainty and complexity to analyzing how the cost competitiveness of future zero-emissions trucks, such as autonomous electric trucks (AETs) may develop. This study examines the cost performance of BETs and AETs compared to ICETs, and how it varies over different market and technology conditions, charging strategies, and transport applications. Focus is on heavy-duty tractor-trailer trucks operating full truckload shuttle-flows in Sweden. Due to the inherent uncertainty and interactions among the analyzed factors, the analysis is performed as computational experiments using a simulation model of BET, AET, and ICET shuttle flow operations and associated costs. In total, 19,200 experiments are performed by sampling the model across 1200 scenarios representing various transport applications and technical and economic conditions for sixteen charging strategies with different combinations of depot, destination, and en route charging. The results indicate that both BETs and AETs are cost competitive compared to ICETs in a large share of scenarios. High asset utilization is important for offsetting additional investment costs in vehicles and chargers, highlighting the importance of deploying these vehicles in applications that enable high productivity. The cost performance for BETs is primarily influenced by energy related costs, charging strategy, and charging infrastructure utilization. The AET cost performance is in addition heavily affected by remote operations cost, and costs for the automated driving system. When feasible, relying only on depot charging is in many scenarios the most cost-effective charging strategy, with the primary exceptions being highly energy-demanding scenarios with long distances and heavy goods in which the required battery is too heavy to operate the truck within vehicle weight regulations if not complemented by destination, or en route charging. However, many experiments do not lead to a reduced payload capacity for BETs and AETs compared to ICETs, and a large majority of the considered scenarios are feasible to operate with a BET or AET within current gross vehicle weight regulations.
Hydrogen has gained enormous relevance due to its lower carbon footprint and its potential role in balancing energy supply and demand. It is being considered as a sustainable substitute for conventional fuels. The generation of hydrogen using renewable energy sources is still in development, with a significant challenge lying in the efficient and safe storage of hydrogen due to its low energy density. This challenge hinders the widespread adoption of hydrogen. Compression and liquefaction methods of storage face issues of losses that reduce their effectiveness. The technology for hydrogen storage has advanced significantly in the past few years, driven by recent enhancements in synthesizing carbonaceous materials with hydrogen storage capabilities. This article critically reviews novel carbonaceous materials for hydrogen storage, including biochar, activated carbon, carbon nanotubes, carbon nanocomposites, carbon aerogel, fullerens, MXenes, graphite, graphene, and its derivatives. Effective hydrogen adsorption using microporous materials, such as activated carbons, is crucial, sparking interest in economically viable options for hydrogen storage. Despite this, a significant amount of work still needs to be accomplished before the potential and advantages of the hydrogen economy can be fully realized and utilized by manufacturers and academics.
Hydrogen energy technologies are envisioned to play a critical supporting role in global decarbonisation. While low-carbon hydrogen is primarily targeted for reducing industrial emissions, alongside decarbonising parts of the transport sector, environmental benefits could also be achieved in the residential context. Presently, gas-dependent countries such as Japan and the United Kingdom are assessing the feasibility of deploying hydrogen home appliances, as part of their national energy strategies. However, prospects for the transition will hinge on consumer acceptance, alongside an array of other socio-technical factors. To support potential ambitions for large-scale and sustained technology diffusion, this study advances a Unified Theory of Domestic Hydrogen Acceptance. Through an integrative, comparative literature review targeting hydrogen and domestic energy studies, the paper proposes a novel Domestic Hydrogen Acceptance Model (DHAM), which accounts for the cognitive and emotional dimensions of human perceptions. Through this dual interplay, the proposed framework can increase the predictive power of hydrogen acceptance models.
The use of molecular hydrogen (H 2 ) in the energy sector faces several technical and economic hurdles related to its chemical and physical properties, particularly volumetric energy density and mass. The production, transport and storage of hydrogen, both in gas and liquid form, are intrinsically inefficient and expensive. Moreover, the mass production of green hydrogen would preferably use surpluses of renewable electricity that will be largely available not before the next decade. To fulfill the great potential of H 2 in the decarbonization of the global economy – which should greatly accelerate – applications must be carefully selected, favoring for instance hard-to-abate sectors with respect to low-temperature residential heating or long-distance transportation versus light duty vehicles. In the meantime, research on production, transportation and storage of H 2 must substantially leap forward.
This study analyses the elements and approaches to creating sustainable transport systems, with a focus on road travel. The study examines the environmental and economic aspects of sustainable road transport and stresses the need to curb carbon emissions, boost energy efficiency, clean the air, ensure everyone has easy access to transport, and think about societal goals as a whole. Important considerations including environmental effect, energy efficiency, legislative frameworks, and economic impact are highlighted in the study. The MCDM model is used as a complexity instrument to strike a balance between competing objectives and criteria. This research may help stakeholders use the MCDM method to better comprehend the existing condition of transport networks and to better plan for future sustainability actions. The primary goal of this article is to analyze and contrast how various present road transport systems have progressed toward a more sustainable future. Sustainability in road transport systems is discussed, and a framework procedure is presented based on the integrated single-valued neutrosophic set and DEMATEL approach. The factor relationship was built using the DEMATEL technique. There were 14 secondary criteria employed in addition to the four primary ones.
In this study we analyze the total cost of ownership (TCO) of zero-emissions truck technologies in China, namely battery-electric trucks (BET) and fuel cell electric trucks (FCET), for three HDV segments including tractor-trailers, dump trucks, and straight trucks. The study aims to identify the TCO parity time between zero-emissions trucks and diesel trucks for the considered HDV segments in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, thereby providing an analytical basis to support the development of NEV targets for those HDV segments. The analysis is based on a thorough modeling of TCO and simulations of energy consumption. It is undertaken as an analytical contribution to the goal of the Chinese government to increase the share of NEV sales to about 20% of all vehicles sold in 2025.
Our analysis finds that all battery-electric truck segments can achieve TCO parity with diesel trucks as of the second half of this decade. Battery-electric dump trucks are cost-effective compared to their diesel counterparts as early as 2025. Battery-electric tractor-trailers and straight trucks will reach TCO parity with diesel toward the end of the decade. Fuel cell electric trucks will almost reach TCO parity with diesel trucks toward the end of the decade for straight and dump trucks.
Based on our findings, we recommend the following for the development of policies designed to drive the adoption of HD-NEVs in China:
Set ambitious sales requirements for HD-NEVs in the near term. Truck operators will only reap the economic benefits of HD-NEVs if there is a robust supply of them. California provides a best practice example for the setting of targets, requiring 11% of new heavy rigid trucks to be zero emission by 2025 and 50% by 2030. For tractor-trailers the zero-emission sales requirements are 5% and 30% by 2025 and 2030, respectively. China’s ambition to become carbon neutral by 2060 requires that the central government introduce targets at least as ambitious as those adopted in California.
Set long-term zero-emission sales targets to provide manufacturers a clear picture for future product planning and investment. The combination of near-term binding sales requirements with long-term nonbinding targets set by the government is desirable. The former ensures the immediate kick-start of the needed supply chains; the latter provides the certainty that the investments made will have a long life. The combination of the two is important to create a large and long-lasting market, whose economies of scale will drive down manufacturing costs and, consequently, the TCO of HD-NEVs.
Provide incentives to bring the TCO parity of HD-NEVs with diesel trucks to the first half of this decade. Policy can create adequate incentives to close the TCO gap between diesel HDVs and HD-NEVs in the next 5 years. Subsidies—which are not fiscally sustainable—should be limited in scope and duration to stimulate demand in early phases. Policies following the “Polluter Pays Principle” can generate the revenue needed to fund incentive programs in the long term.
Design policies that are application-specific but technology-neutral. Policies must target the deployment of zero-emission vehicles in the segments with the highest CO2 emissions, such as tractor-trailers. At the same time, they should aim for a level playing field between battery-electric and fuel cell trucks to favor the most cost-effective technological pathway in the long term. Our analysis shows that battery-electric trucks have a cost advantage in the absence of incentives.
Research on car dependence exposes the difficulty of moving away from a car-dominated, high-carbon transport system, but neglects the political-economic factors underpinning car-dependent societies. Yet these factors are key constraints to attempts to ‘decouple' human well-being from energy use and climate change emissions. In this critical review paper, we identify some of the main political-economic factors behind car dependence, drawing together research from several fields. Five key constituent elements of what we call the ‘car-dependent transport system’ are identified: i) the automotive industry; ii) the provision of car infrastructure; iii) the political economy of urban sprawl; iv) the provision of public transport; v) cultures of car consumption. Using the ‘systems of provision’ approach within political economy, we locate the part played by each element within the key dynamic processes of the system as a whole. Such processes encompass industrial structure, political-economic relations, the built environment, and cultural feedback loops. We argue that linkages between these processes are crucial to maintaining car dependence and thus create carbon lock-in. In developing our argument we discuss several important characteristics of car-dependent transport systems: the role of integrated socio-technical aspects of provision, the opportunistic use of contradictory economic arguments serving industrial agendas, the creation of an apolitical façade around pro-car decision-making, and the ‘capture’ of the state within the car-dependent transport system. Through uncovering the constituents, processes and characteristics of car-dependent transport systems, we show that moving past the automobile age will require an overt and historically aware political program of research and action.
With about 22%, the transport sector is one of the largest global emitters of the greenhouse gas CO2. Long-distance road freight transport accounts for a large and rising share within this sector. For this reason, in February 2019, the European Union agreed to introduce CO2 emission standards following Canada, China, Japan and the United States. One way to reduce CO2 emissions from long-distance road freight transport is to use alternative powertrains in trucks — especially heavy-duty vehicles (HDV) because of their high mileage, weight and fuel consumption. Multiple alternative fuels and powertrains (AFPs) have been proposed as potential options to lower CO2 emissions. However, the current research does not paint a clear picture of the path towards decarbonizing transport that uses AFPs in HDVs. The aim of this literature review is to understand the current state of research on the market diffusion of HDVs with alternative powertrains. We present a summary of market diffusion studies of AFPs in HDVs, including their methods, main findings and policy recommendations. We compare and synthesize the results of these studies to identify strengths and weaknesses in the field, and to propose further options to improve AFP HDV market diffusion modelling. All the studies expect AFPs on a small scale in their reference scenarios under current regulations. In climate protection scenarios, however, AFPs dominate the market, indicating their positive effect on CO2 reduction. There is a high degree of uncertainty regarding the emergence of a superior AFP technology for HDVs. The authors of this review recommend more research into policy measures, and that infrastructure development and energy supply should be included in order to obtain a holistic understanding of modelling AFP market diffusion for HDVs. Keywords: Heavy-duty vehicle, Road freight transport, Alternative fuel, Alternative powertrain, Decarbonization, Low-carbon policy
Development of battery technology is making battery electric heavy duty trucks technically and commercially viable and several manufacturers have introduced battery electric trucks recently. However, the national and sectoral differences in freight transport operations affect the viability of electric trucks. The aim of this paper is to develop a methodology for estimating the potential of electric trucks and demonstrate the results in Switzerland and Finland. Commodity-level analysis of the continuous road freight survey data were carried out in both countries. As much as 71% of Swiss road freight transport tonne-kilometers may be electrified using battery electric trucks but Finland has very limited potential of 35%, due to the use of long and heavy truck-trailer combinations. Within both countries the electrification potential varies considerably between commodities, although in Finland more so than in Switzerland. Commodities which are constrained by payload volume rather than weight and are to large extent carried using medium duty or <26t rigid trucks trucks seem to provide high potential for electrification even with the current technology. Electric trucks increase the annual electricity consumption by only 1–3%, but truck charging is likely to have a large impact on local grids near logistics centres and rest stations along major roads. A spatial analysis by routing the trips reported in the datasets used in this study should be carried out. Future research should also include comparison between the alternate ways of electrifying road freight transport, i.e. batteries with charging, batteries with battery swapping and electrified road systems.
Transport CO2 emissions continue to grow globally despite advances in low-carbon technology and goal setting by numerous governments. In this Perspective, we summarize available evidence for the effectiveness of climate policies and policy mixes for road transport relative to 2030 and 2050 mitigation goals implied by the Paris Agreement. Current policy mixes in most countries are not nearly stringent enough. We argue that most regions need a stronger, more integrated policy mix led by stringent regulations and complemented by pricing mechanisms as well as other efforts to reduce vehicle travel. As road transport emissions are set to grow, stronger policy mixes are needed to reach mitigation goals. This Perspective considers the evidence for several policy types—strong regulation, pricing and reduced travel—and the best combination to reduce emissions for passenger and freight vehicles.
Despite the comparatively limited stock of vehicles, heavy-duty road transport is responsible for a major share of CO2 emissions from the European transport sector. Electric trucks powered by overhead lines, so-called trolley trucks or catenary hybrid trucks, have been proposed as a potential GHG mitigation option. However, from the perspective of the energy system, trolley trucks constitute an additional and inflexible electricity demand. Here, we analyse scenarios with an ambitious European market diffusion of trolley trucks and their impact on the electricity system and CO2 emissions. Our results show that trolley trucks can noteworthily reduce the CO2 emissions from heavy road transport even when the additional CO2 emissions from electricity generation are taken into account. Furthermore, the actual impact of the additional load from trolley trucks on the total energy system is limited. Compared to the anticipated electricity demand from passenger cars in 2030, trolley trucks require less energy and the load is more equally distributed over daytime. Our findings thus show that electric trucks are an interesting option for CO2 mitigation in heavy road transport.
In the past three decades, government, industry and other stakeholders have repeatedly been swept up with the ‘fuel du jour’, claiming that a particular alternative fuel vehicle (AFV) technology can succeed in replacing conventional gasoline-powered vehicles. However, AFV technologies have experienced relatively little success, with fossil fuels still accounting for about 95% of global transport energy use. Here, using the US as a case study, we conduct a media analysis to show how society’s attention has skipped among AFV types between 1980 and 2013, including methanol, natural gas, plug-in electric, hybrid electric, hydrogen and biofuels. Although our results provide no indication as to whether hype ultimately has a net positive or negative impact on AFV innovation, we offer several recommendations that governments can follow to move past hype to support significant AFV adoption and displace fossil fuel use in the transportation sector.
Global emissions scenarios studies, such as those informing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5), highlight the importance of the transport sector for climate change mitigation—along with the difficulties of achieving deep reductions therein ( 1 ) [supplementary materials (SM)]. Transport is responsible for about 23% of total energy-related CO2 emissions worldwide ( 2 ). The sector is growing more rapidly than most others, with emissions projected to double by 2050. Global scenario studies, specifically those produced by integrated assessment models (IAMs), communicate aggregate mitigation potentials by sectors in IPCC reports. Yet recent evidence indicates that emissions may be reduced further than these global scenario studies suggest—if policy-makers use the full suite of policies at their disposal.
At present, there are roughly a billion cars in the world. Yet within twenty years, the number will double to 2 billion, largely a consequence of China's and India's explosive growth. Given that greenhouse gases are already creating havoc with our climate and that violent conflict in unstable oil-rich nations is on the rise, does this mean that matters will only get worse, or are there hopeful signs that effective, realistic solutions can be found? In Two Billion Cars, through a concise history of America's love affair with cars and an overview of the global auto industry, leading transportation experts Daniel Sperling and Deborah Gordon explain how we arrived at this state, and what we can do about it. Sperling and Gordon outline the problem in full and assign blame squarely where it belongs--on the auto-industry, short-sighted government policies, and consumers. They consider the issue from all angles and take up such topics as getting beyond the gas-guzzler monoculture, breaking Detroit's hold on energy and climate policy, the search for low-carbon fuels, California's pioneering role, and more. But they are not Cassandras. Promising advances in both transportation technology and fuel efficiency together with shifts in traveler behavior, they suggest, offer us a way out of our predicament. Ultimately, the authors contend that the two places that have the most troublesome emissions problems--California and China--are the most likely to become world leaders on these issues. Arnold Schwarzenegger's enlightened embrace of eco-friendly fuel policies, which he discusses in the foreword to Two Billion Cars, and China's forthright recognition that it needs far-reaching environmental and energy policies, suggest that if they can tackle the issue effectively and honestly, then there really is reason for hope.
Heutige Machbarkeit Emissions freier Lieferverkehr-Fallbeispiel Rewe Nordost (Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI
S Link
P Plötz
C Moll
J Griener
Truck Stop Locations in Europe: Final Report (Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI
P Plötz
D Speth
Spatial and Temporal Analysis of the Total Cost of Ownership for Class 8 Tractors and Class 4 Parcel Delivery Trucks
H Chad
Net-Zero-Carbon Transport in Europe Until 2050: Targets, Technologies and Policies for a Long-Term EU Strategy (Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI
P Plötz
A Charging Infrastructure Network for Battery Electric Trucks in Europe Working Paper Sustainability and Innovation