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The impact of human CO2 on atmospheric CO2

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DOI:10.53234/scc202112/212
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Abstract

A basic assumption of climate change made by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is natural CO2 stayed constant after 1750 and human CO2 dominated the CO2 increase. IPCC's basic assumption requires human CO2 to stay in the atmosphere longer than natural CO2. But human CO2 and natural CO2 molecules are identical. So, human CO2 and natural CO2 must flow out of the atmosphere at the same rate, or e-time. The 14 CO2 e-time, derived from δ 14 C data, is 10.0 years, making the 12 CO2 e-time less than 10 years. The IPCC says the 12 CO2 e-time is about 4 years and IPCC's carbon cycle uses 3.5 years. A new physics carbon cycle model replicates IPCC's natural carbon cycle. Then, using IPCC's natural carbon cycle data, it calculates human carbon has added only 33 [24-48] ppmv to the atmosphere as of 2020, which means natural carbon has added 100 ppmv. The physics model calculates if human CO2 emissions had stopped at the end of 2020, the human CO2 level of 33 ppmv would fall to 10 ppmv in 2100. After the bomb tests, δ 14 C returned to its original balance level of zero even as 12 CO2 increased, which suggests a natural source dominates the 12 CO2 increase.
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The impact of human CO2 on atmospheric CO2
Edwin X Berry
Ed Berry, LLC, Bigfork, Montana 59911, USA
ed@edberry.com
Submitted September 26, 2021
Revised version received Oct 30
Published December 14, 2021
https://doi.org/10.53234/scc202112/212
LINK to published paper:
The impact of human CO2 on atmospheric CO2 - SCC (klimarealistene.com)
Link to website discussion:
The Impact of human CO2 on atmospheric CO2 - edberry.com
Abstract
A basic assumption of climate change made by the United Nations Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is natural CO2 stayed constant after 1750 and human
CO2 dominated the CO2 increase. IPCC’s basic assumption requires human CO2 to stay
in the atmosphere longer than natural CO2. But human CO2 and natural CO2 molecules
are identical. So, human CO2 and natural CO2 must flow out of the atmosphere at the
same rate, or e-time.
The 14CO2 e-time, derived from δ14C data, is 10.0 years, making the 12CO2 e-time less
than 10 years. The IPCC says the 12CO2 e-time is about 4 years and IPCC’s carbon cycle
uses 3.5 years.
A new physics carbon cycle model replicates IPCC’s natural carbon cycle. Then, using
IPCC’s natural carbon cycle data, it calculates human carbon has added only 33 [24-48]
ppmv to the atmosphere as of 2020, which means natural carbon has added 100 ppmv.
The physics model calculates if human CO2 emissions had stopped at the end of 2020,
the human CO2 level of 33 ppmv would fall to 10 ppmv in 2100.
After the bomb tests, δ14C returned to its original balance level of zero even
as 12CO2 increased, which suggests a natural source dominates the 12CO2 increase.
Contents
1. Introduction
1.1 Definitions
1.2 The IPCC basic assumption
1.3. The IPCC ice-core assumption
1.4 Isotope data show CO2 increase is natural
2. Method
2.1 The data
This paper uses these data,
• IPCC’s natural carbon cycle data (IPCC, 2013, pp. 470-486)
• δ14C data (Turnbull et al., 2017)
• 14C data (Turnbull et al., 2017)
• 12C data before 1960 (Etheridge et al., 1996; Jaworowski, 2007)
• 12C data after 1960 (Keeling et al., 2001)
• Human carbon emissions data (Gilfillan et al., 2020)
2.2 The basics
2.3 The physics carbon cycle model
2.4 Data contradict IPCC’s basic assumption
2.5 The Bern model
3. Carbon data review
3.1 IPCC’s carbon cycle data
3.2 IPCC’s natural carbon cycle
3.3 IPCC’s human carbon cycle
4. Physics model
4.1 Physics model for one reservoir
4.2 Physics model properties
4.3 Physics carbon-cycle model
4.4 RC Network analogy
4.5 Method of calculation
5. Physics model results
5.1 The physics human carbon cycle
5.2 Values at IPCC’s extreme error bounds
5.3 Physics model carbon cycle pulse decay
5.4 The physics model vs the Bern model
6. Discussion
6.1 δ14C data show the CO2 increase is natural
6.2 How nature may have increased its CO2 level
6.3 COVID-19 CO2 data suggest the increase is natural
6.4 The physics model will help future research
Conclusions
IPCC’s basic climate change assumption is natural CO2 stayed constant after 1750 as
human CO2 causes all (or dominates) the increase in atmospheric CO2.
To support its basic assumption, the IPCC claims “The removal of human-emitted
CO2from the atmosphere by natural processes will take a few hundred thousand years
(high confidence).” But the human-carbon e-time must equal the natural-carbon e-time
because human and natural CO2 molecules are identical.
The 14CO2 e-time, derived from δ14C data, is 10.0 years, making the 12CO2 e-time less
than 10 years. The IPCC says the 12CO2 e-time is about 4 years and IPCC’s carbon cycle
uses 3.5 years.
After the bomb tests, δ14C returned to its original balance level of zero even
as 12CO2 increased. This suggests the added 12CO2 came from a natural source.
The physics model calculates, deductively, the consequences of IPCC’s natural carbon
cycle data. The physics model first replicates IPCC’s natural carbon cycle. Then, using
the same IPCC data, it calculates that human carbon has added only 33 [24-48] ppmv to
the atmosphere as of 2020, which means natural carbon has added 100 ppmv. The
physics model further calculates if human CO2 emissions had stopped at the end of
2020, the human CO2 level of 33 ppmv would fall to 10 ppmv by 2100.
The IPCC argues the absence of ice-core data – that might show the natural CO2 level
was greater than 280 ppmv before 1750 – supports its basic assumption. But the
physics model shows IPCC’s basic assumption, and therefore IPCC’s ice-core
assumption, contradict IPCC’s natural carbon cycle data.
Data and Calculations Availability
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We present 60 years of Δ¹⁴CO2 measurements from Wellington, New Zealand (41° S, 175° E). The record has been extended and fully revised. New measurements have been used to evaluate the existing record and to replace original measurements where warranted. This is the earliest direct atmospheric Δ¹⁴CO2 record and records the rise of the ¹⁴C bomb spike and the subsequent decline in Δ¹⁴CO2 as bomb ¹⁴C moved throughout the carbon cycle and increasing fossil fuel CO2 emissions further decreased atmospheric Δ¹⁴CO2. The initially large seasonal cycle in the 1960s reduces in amplitude and eventually reverses in phase, resulting in a small seasonal cycle of about 2 ‰ in the 2000s. The seasonal cycle at Wellington is dominated by the seasonality of cross-tropopause transport and differs slightly from that at Cape Grim, Australia, which is influenced by anthropogenic sources in winter. Δ¹⁴CO2 at Cape Grim and Wellington show very similar trends, with significant differences only during periods of known measurement uncertainty. In contrast, similar clean-air sites in the Northern Hemisphere show a higher and earlier bomb ¹⁴C peak, consistent with a 1.4-year interhemispheric exchange time. From the 1970s until the early 2000s, the Northern and Southern Hemisphere Δ¹⁴CO2 were quite similar, apparently due to the balance of ¹⁴C-free fossil fuel CO2 emissions in the north and ¹⁴C-depleted ocean upwelling in the south. The Southern Hemisphere sites have shown a consistent and marked elevation above the Northern Hemisphere sites since the early 2000s, which is most likely due to reduced upwelling of ¹⁴C-depleted and carbon-rich deep waters in the Southern Ocean, although an underestimate of fossil fuel CO2 emissions or changes in biospheric exchange are also possible explanations. This developing Δ¹⁴CO2 interhemispheric gradient is consistent with recent studies that indicate a reinvigorated Southern Ocean carbon sink since the mid-2000s and suggests that the upwelling of deep waters plays an important role in this change.
Decadal Fossil Fuel Emissions and Decadal Warming: A Note
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  • Jan 2015
Detrended correlation analysis of mean decadal fossil fuel emissions and mean decadal warming rates in the sample period 1850-2014 at lags of 0, 5, 10, and 15 years shows no evidence that the two series are causally related at a decadal frequency. Further tests at different lengths of the moving window also failed to detect a correlation between the two detrended time series. These findings are inconsistent with the claim that changes in fossil fuel emissions have a measurable effect on warming at a frequency response in the range of one or two decades.
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  • Feb 2022
After 1750 and the onset of the industrial revolution, the anthropogenic fossil component and the non-fossil component in the total atmospheric CO2 concentration, C(t), began to increase. Despite the lack of knowledge of these two components, claims that all or most of the increase in C(t) since 1800 has been due to the anthropogenic fossil component have continued since they began in 1960 with "Keeling Curve: Increase in CO2 from burning fossil fuel." Data and plots of annual anthropogenic fossil CO2 emissions and concentrations, C(t), published by the Energy Information Administration, are expanded in this paper. Additions include annual mean values in 1750 through 2018 of the 14C specific activity, concentrations of the two components, and their changes from values in 1750. The specific activity of 14C in the atmosphere gets reduced by a dilution effect when fossil CO2, which is devoid of 14C, enters the atmosphere. We have used the results of this effect to quantify the two components. All results covering the period from 1750 through 2018 are listed in a table and plotted in figures. These results negate claims that the increase in C(t) since 1800 has been dominated by the increase of the anthropogenic fossil component. We determined that in 2018, atmospheric anthropogenic fossil CO2 represented 23% of the total emissions since 1750 with the remaining 77% in the exchange reservoirs. Our results show that the percentage of the total CO2 due to the use of fossil fuels from 1750 to 2018 increased from 0% in 1750 to 12% in 2018, much too low to be the cause of global warming.
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  • Mar 2019
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  • Jan 2015
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Reporting of 14C data
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