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@Hicham Raïq | ﻖﺋار مﺎﺸﻫ
@ @Mohamed Ourya | ﺎﻳروأ ﺪﻤﺤﻣ
ﺔﻳدﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻاو ﺔﻴﺳﺎﻴﺴﻟا تﻻّﻮﺤﺘﻟا ﻞﻇ ﻲﻓ بﺎﺒﺸﻟا ﺎﺿر ىﺪﻣ "ﻲﺑﺮﻌﻟا ﻊﻴﺑﺮﻟا" ﺪﻌﺑ
ﻲﺑﺮﻌﻟا بﺮﻐﻤﻟا ﻦﻣ ﺔﻨّﻴﻌﻟ ﺔﺑﺎﺠﺘﺳﻻا ﻲﺋﺎﻨﺛ ﻲﺘﺴﺟﻮﻟ راﺪﺤﻧا ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ
e Satisfaction Degree of Young People In light of the Political
and Economic Transformations aer the "Arab Spring"
Bilateral Logistic Regression Analysis for a Sample from the Maghreb
. *
Professor of Sociology, Department of Social Sciences, College of Arts and Sciences, Qatar University.
. **
Professor of Political ought, Department of International Aairs, College of Arts and Sciences, Qatar University.
ﺐــﺴﺤﺑ ،ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟا ﻲﻓ تﻻﺪﻌﻤﻟا ﻰﻠﻋأ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻦﻣ ﻦﻴﻴﺑرﺎﻐﻤﻟا بﺎﺒــﺸﻟا ىﺪﻟ ﺔﻟﺎﻄﺒﻟا لﺪــﻌﻣ ﺮــﺒﺘﻌُﻳ
مﺪﻄﺻا ،(2011) "ﻲــﺑﺮﻌﻟا ﻊﻴﺑﺮﻟا" تﺎﺿﺎﻔﺘﻧا ﺪــﻌﺒﻓ .ﻲﻟوﺪﻟا ﻚﻨﺒﻟا ىﺪﻟ ةﺮــﻓاﻮﺘﻤﻟا تاﺮــﺷﺆﻤﻟا
ةردﺎﻘﻟا ﺮﻴﻏ ﻲﺑﺮﻌﻟا بﺮﻐﻤﻟا ﺔﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻲﻓ ﻲﺳﺎﻴﺴﻟاو يدﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻا ﻊﻗاﻮﻟﺎﺑ بﺎﺒﺸﻟا ءﻻﺆﻫ حﻮﻤﻃ
ﻲﻓ .ﻞﻐــﺸﻟا صﺮﻓ ﺮﻴﻓﻮﺗ يأ ؛ﻢﻫﺪﻨﻋ ىﺮــﺒﻜﻟا ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻜــﺷﻟ ﺔــﺳﻮﻤﻠﻣو ﺔﻴﻠﻤﻋ لﻮﻠﺣ حﺮﻃ ﻰــﻠﻋ
تﺎﻳﺪﺤﺘﻟا مﺎﻣأ بﺎﺒــﺸﻟا ﺎﺿر ىﺪﻣ ﺔــﺳارﺪﻟ ﺔﻴﻤﻜﻟا ﺞﻫﺎﻨﻤﻟا تاودأ ﺚﺤﺒﻟا مﺪﺨﺘــﺳا ،ﻚﻟذ ﻞﻇ
بﺎﺒــﺸﻟا ّنأ ﺞــﺋﺎﺘﻨﻟا لﻼــﺧ ﻦــﻣ ﺢــﻀﺘﻴﻟ .ﺔــﻘﻄﻨﻤﻟا ﻲــﻓ ﺔﻴــﺳﺎﻴﺴﻟا تﻻﻮــﺤﺘﻟاو ﺔــﻳدﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻا
دﺎــﺴﻔﻟﺎﺑ ﺔﻄﺒﺗﺮﻣ ىﺮﺧأ تﺎﻴﻟوأ ﻦﻣ ﻢﻏﺮﻟا ﻰﻠﻋ ،ﺔــﻳدﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻا ﺔﻳﻮﻟوﺎﺑ نﻮﻜــﺴﻤﺘﻳ ﻦــﻴﻴﺑرﺎﻐﻤﻟا
ﺪﻌﺒﻟا نأ ﻮﻫ ﻲﻧﺎﺜﻟا جﺎﺘﻨﺘﺳﻻاو .ﻦﻣا ماﺪﻌﻧاو ،بﺎﻫرا ﺔﺑرﺎﺤﻣو ،ﺔﻴﻣﻮﻤﻌﻟا تﺎﻣﺪﺨﻟاو ،يرادا
ﺔــﺳارﺪﻟا عﻮﺿﻮﻣ لوﺪﻟا ﻞﻛ ﺮﺒﺘﻌﺗ ذإ ؛ﺔﻘﻄﻨﻤﻟا هﺬﻫ ﻲﻓ ﺲﻧﺎﺠﺘﻟا ﻦﻣ ﺎ ًﻋﻮﻧ ﺪــﺟﻮﻳ يدﺎــﺼﺘﻗﻻا
.ﺎ ً
ﻀﻳأ ﻪﻠﻛ ﻊﻤﺘﺠﻤﻟاو ،بﺎﺒﺸﻟا ﻰﻟإ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺎﺑ تﺎﻳﻮﻟوا سأر ﻰﻠﻋ يﺪﺤﺘﻟا اﺬﻫ
ﺎﺿﺮﻟا مﺪﻋ ،يدﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻا يﺪﺤﺘﻟا ،ﻲﺘــﺴﺟﻮﻠﻟا راﺪﺤﻧﻻا ،نﻮﻴﺑرﺎﻐﻤﻟا بﺎﺒــﺸﻟا :ﺔﻴﺣﺎﺘﻔﻣ تﺎﻤﻠﻛ
.بﺎﺒﺸﻟا ﺪﻨﻋ
According to the World Bank indicators, the Maghreb youth unemployment rate
is among the highest in the world. Aer the Arab Spring uprisings (2011), the
youth aspirations and expectations clashed with the economic diculties and
political reality in the Maghreb countries, which are unable to provide employment
opportunities and ecient solutions to youth major problems. In the light of this
situation, we analyzed (using quantitative methods) the satisfaction degree of young
people under the eect of economic challenges and political transformations in the
Maghreb region. It is clear from the results that the Maghreb youth adhere more to
the economic priority, despite other priorities related to administrative corruption,
the lack of public services, the ght against terrorism and insecurity. e second
conclusion is that the youth economic expectations create a kind of homogeneity in
this region. In all the observed countries, most young people consider the economy
as the rst priority, as well as the entire population.
Keywords: Maghreb Youth, Logistic Regression, Economic Challenge, Youth Dissatisfaction.
80
ال
أيأي
ﺔﻣﺪﻘﻣ
ص
.
2011
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81 "ﻲﺑﺮﻌﻟا ﻊﻴﺑﺮﻟا" ﺪﻌﺑ ﺔﻳدﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻاو ﺔﻴﺳﺎﻴﺴﻟا تﻻ ّﻮﺤﺘﻟا ﻞﻇ ﻲﻓ بﺎﺒﺸﻟا ﺎﺿر ىﺪﻣ
ﻲﺑﺮﻌﻟا بﺮﻐﻤﻟا ﻦﻣ ﺔﻨّﻴﻌﻟ ﺔﺑﺎﺠﺘﺳﻻا ﻲﺋﺎﻨﺛ ﻲﺘﺴﺟﻮﻟ راﺪﺤﻧا ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ
27563 )
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( )
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:
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.
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( )
.
.
.
" "
.
6 6 4
.2018-2011
5
.
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.( = 0
.1 0
Odds Ratio (8) .
.
0.10 (9)
.(10)
.
.
.
بﺮﻐﻤﻟا ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﺳﺎﻴﺴﻟا تﻻّﻮﺤﺘﻟا :ﺎًﻴﻧﺎﺛ
بﺎﺒﺸﻟا ﻲﻓ ﺎﻫﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗو ﻲﺑﺮﻌﻟا
.
.
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.
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83 "ﻲﺑﺮﻌﻟا ﻊﻴﺑﺮﻟا" ﺪﻌﺑ ﺔﻳدﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻاو ﺔﻴﺳﺎﻴﺴﻟا تﻻ ّﻮﺤﺘﻟا ﻞﻇ ﻲﻓ بﺎﺒﺸﻟا ﺎﺿر ىﺪﻣ
ﻲﺑﺮﻌﻟا بﺮﻐﻤﻟا ﻦﻣ ﺔﻨّﻴﻌﻟ ﺔﺑﺎﺠﺘﺳﻻا ﻲﺋﺎﻨﺛ ﻲﺘﺴﺟﻮﻟ راﺪﺤﻧا ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ
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يدﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻا ﻊﻗاﻮﻟاو
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ﻲﺑﺮﻌﻟا ﺮﺷﺆﻤﻟا
85 "ﻲﺑﺮﻌﻟا ﻊﻴﺑﺮﻟا" ﺪﻌﺑ ﺔﻳدﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻاو ﺔﻴﺳﺎﻴﺴﻟا تﻻ ّﻮﺤﺘﻟا ﻞﻇ ﻲﻓ بﺎﺒﺸﻟا ﺎﺿر ىﺪﻣ
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(2013 )
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ﻰﻠﻋ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻘﺘﻧﻻا ﺔﻠﺣﺮﻤﻟا ﺮﻃﺎﺨﻣ :ﺎ ً
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.
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86
ال
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.
.
)
ص . (
.
.
.(39)
.
) .
(
.
.
.
.
.(40)
.
)
.(
39Ruud Muels & Ton Wilthagen, "Flexicurity: A New Paradigm for the
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40Ibid., p. 3.
.( )
.
.
.
ص .(41)
.
.
ص
.
.(42)
ﺞﺋﺎﺘﻨﻟا :ﺎ ً
ﺴﻣﺎﺧ
22.2 25 18
58.5 .
14 . 41.5
47 .
30
(43) ص .
( 1)
41Schmid, p. 19.
.SPSS 42
43
...
.
ﻲﺑﺮﻌﻟا ﺮﺷﺆﻤﻟا
87 "ﻲﺑﺮﻌﻟا ﻊﻴﺑﺮﻟا" ﺪﻌﺑ ﺔﻳدﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻاو ﺔﻴﺳﺎﻴﺴﻟا تﻻ ّﻮﺤﺘﻟا ﻞﻇ ﻲﻓ بﺎﺒﺸﻟا ﺎﺿر ىﺪﻣ
ﻲﺑﺮﻌﻟا بﺮﻐﻤﻟا ﻦﻣ ﺔﻨّﻴﻌﻟ ﺔﺑﺎﺠﺘﺳﻻا ﻲﺋﺎﻨﺛ ﻲﺘﺴﺟﻮﻟ راﺪﺤﻧا ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ
.(44)
.
- 44
.2019-2018
.
5.2
( 7)
.
.
.
( 1)
: *
.
. : *
. : *
. : *
88
ال
أيأي
.
( 27.5)
.
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(2018-2011)
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ﻲﺑﺮﻌﻟا ﺮﺷﺆﻤﻟا
89 "ﻲﺑﺮﻌﻟا ﻊﻴﺑﺮﻟا" ﺪﻌﺑ ﺔﻳدﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻاو ﺔﻴﺳﺎﻴﺴﻟا تﻻ ّﻮﺤﺘﻟا ﻞﻇ ﻲﻓ بﺎﺒﺸﻟا ﺎﺿر ىﺪﻣ
ﻲﺑﺮﻌﻟا بﺮﻐﻤﻟا ﻦﻣ ﺔﻨّﻴﻌﻟ ﺔﺑﺎﺠﺘﺳﻻا ﻲﺋﺎﻨﺛ ﻲﺘﺴﺟﻮﻟ راﺪﺤﻧا ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ
.
)
. ( ...
. 3.74
. 10.71
.
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" " 2.2 " " 3.6
(2)
/ *
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90
ال
أيأي
.1.72 (48)" " 1.74
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3.74*****3.602.69***1.99*2.32***3.95***10.71***9.27***
1.70***1.741.76***2.69**2.15**------
----2.20**----------
1.95*--------------
----1.42*----------
1.86**--1.58*--1.93*------
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() 0.73*0.58**------**0.291.30*--
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Odds Ratio
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93 "ﻲﺑﺮﻌﻟا ﻊﻴﺑﺮﻟا" ﺪﻌﺑ ﺔﻳدﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻاو ﺔﻴﺳﺎﻴﺴﻟا تﻻ ّﻮﺤﺘﻟا ﻞﻇ ﻲﻓ بﺎﺒﺸﻟا ﺎﺿر ىﺪﻣ
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55Schmid, p. 14.
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