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Abstract

The present study aims to analyze the intensity of daily extreme rainfall and trends for precipitation in Castro, Curitiba and Paranaguá stations, located in the state of Paraná, Brazil. Historical series of rainfall registered by the Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology were used considering the period from 1976 to 2015. The Mann-Kendall and Pettitt statistical tests were applied to identify trends and ruptures in historical rainfall series. Other indicators of trends in rainfall and temperature were calculated using the RClimDex software, developed by the Cana-dian Meteorological System. The classification of cumulative daily rainfall in 24 h with the application of the quantile technique was defined as a standard for percentiles. The months of January, February and December presented greater occurrence frequency of rainfall equal to or greater than 95% and 99% of the quantiles for all locations. The comparative analysis showed that Paranaguá station has the largest accumulated values of rainfall in 24 h during the rainiest months, between September and April, while Castro and Curitiba stations recorded the highest daily totals between May and August. Increasing daily precipitation totals were identified in all quantile's classes with statistical significance only in Curitiba and Paranaguá station, which is attributed to greater urban densities and its direct impacts over daily rainfall totals. Significant trends for increased rainfall were observed, especially in Curitiba, a condition that is associated with the expressive and also significant increase in climate indicators of air temperature.

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... The city of Paranaguá differs from the other two municipalities for its location in the Coastal Plains region of the state. The average distance between the Atlantic Ocean and Curitiba in a straight line is approximately 75 km, while Castro is 170 km from the coast of Paraná [36]. ...
... Both cities present the same average annual temperature of 16.8 °C. According to [41], the Köppen climate classification scheme of these cities is type "Cfb" with mild subtropical humidity [35,36]. On the other hand, [33] described that Paranaguá city is characterized by an average annual rainfall and temperature of 2130.1 mm and 21.3 °C, respectively, and the Köppen climate classification scheme is type "Cfa", being hot, humid subtropical [31]. ...
... According to the Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology [40], Castro and Curitiba present an average annual rainfall of 1469.9 mm and 1507.4 mm, respectively. Both cities present the same average annual temperature of 16.8 • C. According to [41], the Köppen climate classification scheme of these cities is type "Cfb" with mild subtropical humidity [35,36]. On the other hand, [33] described that Paranaguá city is characterized by an average annual rainfall and temperature of 2130.1 mm and 21.3 • C, respectively, and the Köppen climate classification scheme is type "Cfa", being hot, humid subtropical [31]. ...
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The wind is one of the most important and studied variables globally, essential to several sectors, for example, energy. Therefore, this study assesses the wind regime and analysis trends in three locations within the Paraná state, Brazil. The historical series were recorded between 1976 and 2010 at conventional meteorological stations belonging to the Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology. WRPLOT version 8.0.0 software was used for elaborating wind roses and histograms in the annual and seasonal scales. Detection of trends and temporal rupture points was performed using different statistical methods (Run, Mann-Kendall, Pettitt and Shapiro-Wilk tests) for all meteorological stations. All statistical tests were conducted using the R software version 3.3.2. On a seasonal scale, summer and spring present the highest wind speeds in the Curitiba and Paranaguá stations due to meteorological systems on different scales, such as the South Atlantic subtropical anticyclone and frontal systems. The Mann-Kendall test revealed that Castro presented statistical significance in reducing wind speed, with a decrease of 0.23 m/s per decade for the annual scale and 0.23 m/s per decade during the autumn season. These ruptures indicated a decrease in wind speed in Curitiba and Paranaguá for the spring season. The Pettitt test revealed a break point detection in the data series in Curitiba station, likely due to urban expansion that started in the 1980s, reducing wind speed, especially in winter and spring. These trends and ruptures revealed a significant reduction in wind speed, possibly due to the interaction between natural climate changes and the increase in surface roughness resulting from land use and urbanization changes.
... Da mesma forma, que o conhecimento detalhado das características e dinâmicas pluviais da área em estudo é essencial para o planejamento e gerenciamento de diversos segmentos da sociedade civil. Para tanto, torna-se necessária à aplicação de técnicas e procedimentos metodológicos robustos para identificação com acurácia de padrões espaciais e temporais da precipitação pluvial, dentre as quais se destacam a técnica de análise de agrupamento (AA) para a identificação das características espaciais da pluviosidade e a utilização do teste de Mann-Kendall (MK), que é utilizado para avaliar tendência da precipitação pluvial (LI et al., 2018;TERASSI et al., 2022), e dos indicadores climáticos extremos oriundos do Serviço Meteorológico Canadense (ZHANG; YANG, 2004) para averiguar eventuais tendências de mudanças das características do regime pluvial da BHAJ. ...
... Diversas pesquisas têm se valido da aplicação do teste MK para averiguar modificações em séries históricas de precipitação pluvial, dentre as quais se destacam os estudos de Pinheiro et al. (2013) e Nascimento Júnior et al. (2020 para a região Sul e o estado do Paraná, nesta ordem. Ressaltase que, dentre as técnicas avaliadas neste manuscrito, os indicadores climáticos extremos desenvolvidos pelo Serviço Meteorológico Canadense (ZHANG; YANG, 2004) tem sido amplamente utilizado em pesquisas em diferentes regiões do território brasileiro (LUIZ-SILVA et al., 2015;ZANDONADI et al., 2016;TERASSI et al., 2022). ...
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Climate studies in watersheds are very important for the water resources planning and management because they indicate climate extremes potentialities and risks. This paper aimed to identify homogeneous rainfall sectors associated with the evaluation of possible changes trends in rainfall series in the Alto Jacuí Watershed (AJW), Rio Grande do Sul State. Were used annual, monthly, and seasonal data from 27 rainfall with a historical series equivalent to 31 years, between the period from 1980 to 2010. The two main methodologies applied in this research corresponded to Cluster Analysis and the Mann-Kendall (MK) test to identify the spatial-temporal rainfall variability. The cluster analysis dendrogram was generated by the Statistica 7.0 software and the MK test and the climate extreme indicators of precipitation were obtained using the R software. Was verified that the orography conditions the rainfall spatial distribution in the AJW. Was identified the most significant trends were identified for the decrease in rainfall during autumn and winter and for the central-southern region of the study area.These results are important to AJW because they can warn to future water scarcity problems for study area.
... O uso de índices climáticos extremos de precipitação ajuda a avaliar a magnitude e frequência de eventos extremos, permitindo a compreensão das mudanças climáticas passadas e futuras no clima de uma região (Donat et al., 2013). Em razão disso, esses índices têm sido amplamente empregados em estudos hidrológicos em escala global, sendo explorados por diversos pesquisadores, como Terassi et al. (2022), Assis et al. (2021) e Siqueira et al. (2024). ...
... We used a completely quantile approach to create the pollen calendar and define the necessary thresholds to classify the pollen risk levels. Quantile analysis has been successfully implemented to categorise the risk level in epidemiological, aerobiological and environmental risk studies (Cariñanos et al., 2022;De Bodas Terassi et al., 2022;Wei et al., 2019). However, due to the changing aerobiological patterns observed in cities, an exhaustive discussion is required to establish the optimal periodicity to update all this information. ...
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Rhinoconjunctivitis and allergic asthma are among the most frequent diseases in the world, and pollen is their main cause. The incidence of respiratory allergic diseases is expected to grow in the coming years as a consequence of ambient pollution, changes in land use and land cover in cities, and climate change. In this context of global change, the environmental information provided by monitoring and warning networks must be as updated as possible in order to be useful to the end users in the cities. The Madrid Autonomous Region (central Spain) has suffered a noticeable change in its land-use configuration in recent decades and a significant upward temperature trend throughout the entire area. We found that the aerobiological stations in the Madrid Region Palynological Network, covering the most populated cities of this region in central Spain, registered a marked shift towards a greater airborne pollen load of the most abundant tree pollen taxa (Cupressaceae, Platanus and Quercus, but also Pinaceae, Olea and others). These temporal changes are very evident in the pollen calendar for two periods, 1994–2004 (past) and 2012–2022 (present), pointing to changes in the phenology and intensity of the airborne pollen dynamic in cities in the Madrid Region. Based on these findings, we present a technical proposal to the Madrid Region Palynological Network to generate pollen calendars for each city using the reference period of the last ten years, and to update this information every three years. Finally, we propose the latest pollen calendar for all the aerobiological stations in the Madrid Region Palynological Network for the last ten years (2013–2022), which is considered the reference aerobiological information at present for one of the most populated metropolitan areas in Europe.
... October was the only month in which the trend showed an increase in rainfall in ID1 (1.42 mm), ID2 (1.25 mm), ID4 (1.42 mm), and ID6 (1.59 mm) (Figure 7), with significance above 90% (Tables S5 and S6-Supplementary Material II). The trend towards an increase in annual rainfall was found for Curitiba and Paranaguá (Paraná) [93] and in other surveys for this sector of the Brazilian territory [91,[94][95][96] and the state of São Paulo [89]. ...
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The objective of this research is to select the best orbital sensor for rainfall estimates (monthly and annual scales) and to analyze the frequency and magnitude of extreme rainfall events and their trends and disruptions based on the use of satellite rainfall product data for the Cananeia-Iguape Coastal System (CICS). Data from four satellite rainfall products were used to identify the correspondence with seven points on the surface of the study area. Statistical metrics were used to identify the best satellite rainfall product. After identifying the sensor with the best performance in estimating orbital precipitation, extreme events were identified by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) on a one-month (SPI-1), three-month (SPI-3), and twelve-month (SPI-12) scale. Trend and rupture detection in the time series were performed using different statistical techniques (Mann-Kendall, Pettitt, Standard Normal Homogeneity Test, or Buishand test). Among the satellite rainfall products, CHIRPS had the best measurements for the analyzed points on the surface. The year 1983 was characterized as very rainy, also marked by the occurrence of El Niño, and was marked by the rupture of the rains at all points (IDs 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7) analyzed in the month of June. The decrease in monthly rainfall was more significant in the months of February (at points IDs 1, 2, 3, 5, and 7) and April (IDs 1, 3, 5, and 7). Decreased rainfall may cause CICS mangrove shrinkage. These results showed the importance of studying rainfall in an area with mangroves in order to understand the dynamics of vegetation in the face of climate change.
... Chuvas orográficas intensas ocorrem em diversas partes do planeta Terra, como, por exemplo, na América do Norte, sobre as Montanhas Rochosas (KINGSMILL et al., 2006;SMITH et al., 2011); na América do Sul, sobre a Cordilheira dos Andes (SCHILDGEN et al., 2022;ROSALES et al., 2022); na Europa, sobre os Alpes (FURCOLO et al., 2016;FORMETTA et al., 2022;ABBATE et al., 2022); na Ásia, sobre a Cordilheira do Himalaia (TAHIR et al., 2015;MISHRA et al., 2022;REGMI;BOOKHAGEN, 2022); nos Alpes localizados ao sul da Nova Zelândia (PURDY; AUSTIN, 2003;UMMENHOFER;ENGLAND, 2007;CALOIERO, 2014) e nas cadeias montanhosas da África (RAGHAVENDRA et al., 2022;NAKULOPA et al., 2022). YNOUE, 2016;FORGIARINI et al., 2013;TERASSI et al., 2022;NASCIMENTO et al., 2021), Sudeste (PELLEGATTI;GALVANI, 2010;CÂNDIDO;NUNES, 2008;TAVARES et al., 1985;TAVARES;FERREIRA, 2020;PEREIRA et al., 2022;SANTOS et al., 2020SANTOS et al., e 2021 e Nordeste (UVO; BERNDTSSON, 1996;LYRA et al., 2014) do território brasileiro. ...
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A topoclimatologia é uma área de estudo que busca entender como as características topográficas de uma determinada região podem afetar o clima local. Por essa razão, muitas pesquisas científicas buscam compreender como a morfologia do relevo influencia a temperatura, a circulação dos ventos e a precipitação em uma determinada área. Este artigo tem como objetivo levantar o progresso da pesquisa sobre chuva orográfica no mundo e no Brasil. Os principais métodos de pesquisa para este estudo incluem análise bibliométrica consultando os termos "orographic" e "complex terrain" encontrados em trabalhos sobre essa temática para filtrar e obter um maior alcance no levantamento bibliográfico abrangendo o desempenho das publicações, características dos periódicos relacionados, países, instituições e autores. Os resultados mostraram que a palavra "orographic" é mais usada pela comunidade científica do que a palavra "complex terrain" nos estudos sobre chuva orográfica no mundo e no Brasil. Os países com maior quantidade de trabalhos na temática são os EUA e a China. No Brasil, a quantidade de trabalhos encontrados sobre esse tema pelo uso das palavras-chaves é pequena. A Universidade de São Paulo e o Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais são as intuições brasileiras que contém o maior número de trabalhos encontrados na plataforma da Scopus. Entende-se que a presente pesquisa tem o potencial de fornecer informações valiosas para a comunidade científica brasileira envolvida nesse campo, estimulando parcerias acadêmicas para a geração de novos estudos e direcionando pesquisas futuras no país, que ainda apresenta uma produção limitada nessa temática.
... In the UIW, the average annual precipitation varies between 1460 and 1580 mm (Terassi and Galvani 2017), characterized by the homogeneity of monthly mean values. Regarding the thermal regime, the lowest monthly means in the study area are observed for the UIW, with means close to 14 °C in June and July and lower than 22°C in January and February (Terassi et al. 2022). According to the Köppen (1948) climate classification, this basin presents the predominance of the characteristics of type "Cfb" (subtropical mild wet without a dry season) (Álvares et al. 2013;Dubreuil et al. 2017). ...
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This research aims to evaluate the impact and repercussions of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) on the spatiotemporal variability of precipitation in the Upper Iguaçu (UIW), Upper Ribeira (URW), and Coastal (CW) watersheds, located in the eastern region of the state of Paraná and the southern region of Brazil. Methodological procedures used in this research include clustering analysis (K-means) to obtain homogeneous pluviometric groups in each watershed and a vector autoregressive model (VAR) to analyze the correlation between pluviometric anomalies and maritime indicators such as the El Niño-Southern oscillation (ENSO) indicators Southern oscillation index (SOI) and Oceanic Niño index (ONI), the Pacific Decadal oscillation (PDO), and the Tropical Atlantic meridional gradient (TAMG), using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The spatial analysis revealed a rainfall structure of higher yearly amounts in the coastal watershed and leeward of the Serra do Mar, while an expressive sector of the Ribeira watershed presents a significant reduction of the yearly rainfall amounts compared to the sea coast. The VAR model has shown that the ONI climate indicator had the greatest significance and spatial breadth in determining the rainfall anomalies in the study area. Six out of the fifteen homogeneous groups identified in this study have rainfall anomalies related to one of the three maritime indicators (SOI, PDO, or ONI) with a predominance of a lag of 2 to 3 months. Graphical abstract
... Numerous studies have been conducted in recent years to examine the rainfall pattern over urban areas around the world (Singh et al., 2020;Huang et al., 2022;de BodasTerassi et al., 2022). The outcomes of these studies show that both the pattern and intensity of rainfall are significantly altered in the process of urbanization (Han et al., 2014;Chang et al., 2021). ...
Article
Climatic conditions are significantly changing in the urban areas in the age of climate change. However, due the dynamic nature of urban areas and uneven distribution of meteorological stations, it is difficult to study rainfall pattern in the urban areas. Hence, in this study, trend and pattern of rainfall have been examined of Mumbai city using rainfall regionalization approach. For this, K-means and fuzzy C-means (FCM) clustering approaches have been used to examine the pattern of rainfall. The innovative trend analysis (ITA) and five tests of Mann-Kendall (MK) family have been utilized for anaylzing the rainfall trend. Result shows that both K-means and FCM techniques have identified two homogeneous rainfall regions in Mumbai exhibiting two distinctive rainfall patterns. The ITA curve shows that in the lower cluster, the data points are below 1:1 (45 o) line, but in high and moderate cluster, they are above the line. This shows that there is a positive trend in the rainfall, but it is not monotonic. Further, the MK tests utilized in this study also shows positive trend in the rainfall in Mumbai. The result of this study may help in management of water resource and in urban flood mitigation in Mumbai city.
... Other aspects such as the consequences of a reduction in flooding in the context of the new urban concept of a 'sponge city' proposed by Chinese researchers in early 2000 (Cheng et al., 2022); flash floods based on the example their devastating effect on 'Fifth District' (Egypt) (Wahba et al., 2022); the frequency of floods and evaluation of the urban drainage system of Gurugram City (India) using the concept of sustainable drainage systems (Guptha et al., 2022), or the safety of vehicles exposed to urban flooding (Gou et al., 2022) were also examined. The risk of urban floods is linked with the intensity of rainfall in cities which was examined inter alia by De Bodas Terassi et al. (2022) and Huang et al. (2022). On the other hand, Cheng et al. (2022) examined and identified the changes in rainfall generated by urbanization on the basis of the Beijing metropolitan area. ...
Article
The article is available for free till August 28, 2022 here: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212095522001468?dgcid=author#! Taking into account the literature at the intersection of climate change studies and urban studies, the authors examine and compare rainwater management policies in selected Polish cities. There is a special emphasis on urban resilience in order to define their role in ensuring safe living conditions for their residents, including processes of adapting to climate change. The aim is to show how rainwater in a city can be perceived as an opportunity and not only a problem or a challenge. The main research questions are: What measures do Polish cities undertake to build resilience in the context of water management policies? What kinds of documents at the local level are relevant to such measures? Are the provisions contained in these documents implemented or do they remain only a dead letter? The answers require the examination of various documents including climate change adaptation plans and development strategies adopted by Polish cities in this regard.
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The relationship between rainfall characteristics and urbanization over the Eastern US was examined by analyzing four datasets: daily rainfall in 4,593 surface stations over the last 50 years (1958-2008), a high resolution gridded rainfall product, reanalysis wind data, and a proxy for urban land-use: gridded human population data. Results indicate that summer monthly rainfall amounts show an increasing trend in urbanized regions. The frequency of heavy rainfall events has a potential positive bias toward urbanized regions. Most notably, consistent with case studies for individual cities, the climatology of rainfall amounts downwind of urban-rural boundaries shows a significant increasing trend. Analysis of heavy (90th percentile) and extreme (99.5th percentile) rainfall events indicated decreasing trends of heavy rainfall events and a possible increasing trend for extreme rainfall event frequency over urban areas. Results indicate that the urbanization impact was more pronounced in the Northeast and the Midwestern US with an increase in rainfall amounts. In contrast, the southeastern US showed a slight decrease in rainfall amounts and heavy rainfall event frequencies. Results suggest that the urbanization signature is becoming detectable in rainfall climatology as an anthropogenic influence affecting regional precipitation; however, extracting this signature is not straightforward and requires eliminating other dynamical confounding feedbacks.
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Based on the daily rainfall data since 1889 in Curitiba, one of the largest cities in southern Brazil, a trend towards increased precipitation and more intense rainfall can be seen. The annual and seasonal volume of rainfall has increased, amounts greater than 10, 20 and 40 mm being observed more often, but with a reduction in the number of rainy days and the number of days with rainfall below 10 mm. Seasonal 95th percentile series have increased in summer, fall and winter. In addition, several indices of climate extremes presented significant increasing trends: monthly maximum 1-day precipitation, annual total precipitation greater than 95th and 99th percentiles, number of consecutive dry days and the daily intensity index. Generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution function parameters also indicated higher occurrence of extremes detected by the increase in both the scale parameter σ and the location parameter μ in summer, fall and winter. The return time for severe rainfall declined in the second half of the period compared to the first, indicating more frequent occurrence of future extreme events. The main climate indices affecting the 95th percentile series were sea surface temperature (SST), South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) during spring, and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), Large-Scale Index for South America Monsoon (LISAM) and SOI during the summer, which explained variability of the extremes at around 20 and 13%, respectively in each season. Regarding the variability of summer, fall and spring total rainfall, they presented values around 20% for the explained variance due to climate indices. Other factors should be investigated to explain the variability such as urbanization, air pollution and local circulations. Dominant oscillation periods in the time series constructed with one monthly extreme appeared at 3 to 8-year (inter-annual) cycles, with 12 years (decadal) and around 30–64 years on the inter-decadal scale. These oscillations have resonance with SOI, SACZ and Southern Annular Mode (SAM) indices (high frequencies), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and AMO (low frequency).