ArticlePDF Available

Abstract and Figures

Understanding the pattern of regional climatic extremes is essential for creating an important adaptation measure to safeguard farmers from monsoon tantrums. This paper focuses on the rainfall variability and intensity for spatially different locations of Tamil Nadu. The daily rainfall data over a period of 30 years (1990-2019) for the study locations were collected from the constituent research centres of TNAU. The results indicated that an increasing trend in SWM rainfall was observed in Coimbatore (209.3 to 300.6mm), Ooty (681.4 to 703.1mm), Aduthurai (227.8 to 320.6mm), Kovilpatti (132.8 to 141.3 mm) while the decreasing trend was observed in rest of the places. A decreasing trend was reported in general for all the places during NEM. The decreasing trend in the number of rainy days was registered in Kovilpatti, Virudhunagar and Killikulam that exhibits an alert in modifying the crop planning programme in those areas. The frequency of rainfall intensity revealed that except Ooty, the number of Heavy Rain (HR) to VHR(VHR) was found to be meagre to absent in most of the study locations.
Decadal Study of Changing Frequency and Intensity of
Rainfall for Selected Locations of Tamil Nadu
S. KOKILAVANI1*, SP. RAMANATHAN1, GA. DHEEBAKARAN1,
N.K. SATHYAMOORTHY1, B. ARTHIRANI2, T. RAMESH3, K. SATHYABAMA4,
M. JOSEPH5, P. BALASUBRAMANIAN6 and P. ARUNKUMAR7
1Agro Climate Research Centre, TNAU, Coimbatore.
2Agricultural Research Station, TNAU, Kovilpatti.
3ADAC&RI, TNAU, Trichy.
4Tamil Nadu Rice Research Institute, TNAU, Aduthurai.
5Agricultural College and Research Institute,TNAU, Killikulam.
6Horticultural Research Station, TNAU, Ooty.
7Agricultural Research Station, TNAU, Virudhunagar.
Abstract
Understanding the pattern of regional climatic extremes is essential for
creating an important adaptation measure to safeguard farmers from
monsoon tantrums. This paper focusses on the rainfall variability and intensity
for spatially dierent locations of Tamil Nadu. The daily rainfall data over
a period of 30 years (1990-2019) for the study locations were collected
from the constituent research centres of TNAU. The results indicated that
an increasing trend in SWM rainfall was observed in Coimbatore (209.3
to 300.6mm), Ooty (681.4 to 703.1mm), Aduthurai (227.8 to 320.6mm),
Kovilpatti (132.8 to 141.3 mm) while decreasing trend was observed in rest
of the places. A decreasing trend was reported in general for all the places
during NEM. Decreasing trend in number of rainy days was registered in
Kovilpatti, Virudhunagar and Killikulam that exhibits an alert in modifying the
crop planning programme in those areas. The frequency of rainfall intensity
revealed that except Ooty, the number of Heavy Rain (HR) to VHR(VHR)
was found to be meagre to absent in most of the study locations.
CONTACT S. Kokilavani kokilavani.s@tnau.ac.in Agro Climate Research Centre, TNAU, Coimbatore.
© 2021 The Author(s). Published by Enviro Research Publishers.
This is an Open Access article licensed under a Creative Commons license: Attribution 4.0 International (CC-BY).
Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.12944/CWE.16.3.20
Article History
Received: 02 July 2021
Accepted: 08 November
2021
Keywords
NEM;
Rainfall;
Rainfall Intensity;
Rainy days;
SWM.
Current World Environment
www.cwejournal.org
ISSN: 0973-4929, Vol. 16, No. (3) 2021, Pg. 898-907
Introduction
Water resource managers and hydrologists are
now concerned about the shifting pattern of rainfall
as a result of climate change.4 Due to the extreme
signicant uctuations in rainfall trend, drought and
ood-like dangerous situations might occur often.12
Rainfall intensity aects rainfall segmenting into
inltration and runo, soil movementand the amount
899KOKILAVANI et al., Curr. World Environ., Vol. 16(3) 898-907 (2021)
of water available in plant root zones to promote
crop growth in agriculture.6 The timing and intensity
of rainfall also restrict the transport of nutrients and
plant protection compounds.Agriculture has already
faced a number of challenges as a result of our
environmental changes.14
Greater soil loss may occur as a result of higher
rainfall intensities and many of the management
options for increased climate resilience in agriculture
are those that prevent soil loss and maintain soil
health.On a global scale, the pragmatic intensity
of daily heavy precipitation events, i.e.,the amount
of rain per unit time, increases at a pace similar to
that of vapour pressure. (6–7% K−1). Future climate
change projections also point to increasing rainfall
intensity in some areas.5
Since agriculture is considered to be an important
part of the Indian economy, any changes in rainfall
are taken into considerate account. The inuence
of climate change on agriculture has an impact on
the rising population's food security.For improved
adaptation measures, a thorough understanding of a
region's climate is required.7 Climate extremes have
a signicant impact on crop production, resulting in
food insecurity, which has a negative impact on the
country's economy.
In several places of India, notably the southern
peninsular region, there is a strong increase in
extreme occurrences.11 The evidence of the peak
rainfall intensities at the stations is instrumental
for the planning of disaster management and for
studying the ecological aspects pertaining to water
runo in the locality of the stations. The rainy days
research can provide data on the frequency and
severity of rain events in various meteorological
conditions.When compared to periods of normal and
above-average rainfall, a drought season may have
fewer rain days and less rain per day. As a result,
statistical characteristics of daily rainfall distribution
at several sites across a large area are fascinating
and signicant components of rainfall climatology.9
The most important strategy for sustainable
water resource management is to research on
climate change, specically on changes in rainfall
occurrences and allocation.Most signicantly, a
thorough understanding of precipitation patterns
in a changing environment would aid in better
decision-making and improve communities' ability
to adapt to extreme weather occurrences.The
greatest impediment to successful water resource
management in India is the uneven distribution of
water supplies across the country due to the natural
pattern of rainfall occurrence, which varies greatly in
area and time.2 Climate change further accelerates
this rainfall variability7. In a nutshell, it's important
to assess whether there's a pattern in rainfall and
variability.This research gives an exploratory,
regionally distributed decadal examination of rainfall
variability and intensity across Tamil Nadu's several
agro-climatic zones.
Data and Methodology
The daily rainfall data was acquired from the Agro
Climate Research Centre, Agricultural Colleges
and Research Stations, Tamil Nadu Agricultural
University, Tamil Nadu, over the period 1990 to 2019
and presented in Fig 1.
Fig 1: Data locations for the study area
The data were quality checked and sliced into dierent
time scales on decadal period (1991-2000-I,2001-
2010-II and 2011-2021- III) and converted into
India Meteorological Department (IMD) prescribed
900KOKILAVANI et al., Curr. World Environ., Vol. 16(3) 898-907 (2021)
seasonal period viz., Cold Weather Period (CWP),
Hot Weather Period (HWP), South West Monsoon
(SWM) and North East Monsoon (NEM). The per
cent contribution of seasonal to annual rainfall,
number of rainy days (>2.5mm per day) for the three
decadal period were analysed.
The Co-ecient of Variation(CV)was worked out to
know the dependability of the rainfall for the dierent
seasons. Based on the IMD nomenclature, the
intensity of rainfall was categorized into Very Light
Rain-VLR (0.1-2.4 mm), Light Rain-LR (2.5-7.5 mm),
Moderate Rain-MR (7.6-35.5 mm), Rather Heavy
Rain-RHR(35.6-64.4 mm), Heavy Rain-HR (64.5-
124.4 mm) and Very Heavy Rain-VHR (124.5-244.4
mm) and was worked out for the dierent seasons
on decadal period.
Results and Discussion
Rainfall Variability and Dependability Analysis
for Selected Locations of Tamil Nadu
The decadal rainfall variability, per cent contribution,
number of rainy days and dependability analysis on
seasonal scale for the spatially dierent locations of
Tamil Nadu are represented hereunder.
Fig. 2: Rainfall variability for three decades at Coimbatore
Coimbatore- Western Agro Climatic Zone
At Coimbatore, the annual rainfall received during
the I decade was 700 mm distributed in 50.5
rainy days while it got reduced to 670.4 mm (4.2%
decrease) spread in 45.2 rainy days in the III decade
(Fig 2). Among the dierent seasons, the percent
contribution from SWM to annual rainfall was found
to be higher from the I decade (29.9%) to III decades
(44.8%). The seasonal rainfall during SWM showed
an increasing trend of 30.2 percent from the I to III
decade and NEM recorded a declining trend from the
I decade to III decades (54.3%). The dependability
of seasonal rainfall was found to be higher with
lower Co-ecient of Variation (CV) values in the I
decade in all the seasons except CWP while the CV
in the III decade during NEM was found to be higher
(124.6%) with a lesser number of rainy days (15.9)
from the I decade (21.5). The reduction in NEM
rainfall along with uneven distribution that coincides
during the critical crop growth stages would have a
major impact on the rainfed crop growing areas in
the western zone.
Ooty- High Altitude Zone
At Ooty, the annual rainfall received during the I
decade was 1274.9 mm distributed in 88.4 rainy
days and no signicant reduction in rainfall and
rainy days was recorded in the III decade (Fig 3).
Alike Coimbatore, a higher percent contribution of
SWM to annual rainfall and seasonality trend from
I decade to III decades was observed at Ooty. The
seasonal rainfall was found to be dependable in
all the three decades which recorded less than 50
percent CV. The number of rainy days during SWM
showed an increase from 45.4 during the I decade
to 49.3 in III decade whilst the number of rainy days
during the NEM showed a decrease from 24.8 to
19.2 during I to III decade.
901KOKILAVANI et al., Curr. World Environ., Vol. 16(3) 898-907 (2021)
Cauvery Delta Zone-Trichy and Aduthurai
At Trichy, the annual rainfall received during the
I decade was 883.5 mm distributed in 43 rainy
days while it got reduced to 599.3 mm (32.2%
decrease) spread in 34.2 rainy days in the III decade
(Fig 4). Among the dierent seasons, the percent
contribution from HWP to annual rainfall was found
to be higher from I decade (10.8%) to III decades
(18.3%). Both SWM and NEM showed a declining
trend from I decade to III decade. Only the NEM
rainfall was dependable during I decade with a CV
of 41.2 percent. The CV was found to be more than
50 percent for all the seasons in the III decade which
indicated the lower dependability of rainfall in the
recent years. The number of rainy days was also
found to be decreased from I decade to III decade
in both the monsoon period. Since both monsoonal
rainfalls are not dependable, for the non- delta
blocks, special attention in the selection of crop and
duration needs to be addressed to avert the weather
vagaries during the cropping season.
Aduthurai
At Aduthurai, the annual rainfall received during the I
decade was 1010.8 mm distributed in 45.8 rainy days
while it got increased to 1077.6 mm (6.2% increase)
spread in 48.5 rainy days in the III decade (Fig 5).
The same pattern registered in Coimbatore and
Ooty for the higher percent contribution of SWM to
annual rainfall and seasonality trend from I decade
to III decade was observed at Aduthurai. The NEM
recorded 47 percent of CV value in the I decade and
the dependability of rainfall was higher while in the
III decade, both SWM and NEM recorded less than
50 percent of CV indicated more dependability of
seasonal rainfall. The number of rainy days during
Fig. 3: Rainfall variability for three decades at Ooty
Fig. 4: Rainfall variability for three decades at Trichy
902KOKILAVANI et al., Curr. World Environ., Vol. 16(3) 898-907 (2021)
SWM showed an increase from 13.4 during I decade
to 16 in III decades whilst the number of rainy days
showed a decrease from 27.3 to 26 during I to III
decades.
Fig. 5: Rainfall variability for three decades at Aduthurai
Southern Agro Climatic Zone- Killikulam
Killikulam
At Killikulam, the annual rainfall received during
the I decade was 668.9 mm distributed in 41.2
rainy days while it got reduced to 475.8mm (28.9%
decrease) spread in 31.3 rainy days in the III decade
(Fig 6).Among the dierent seasons, the percent
contribution from NEM to annual rainfall was found
to be higher from I decade (63.6%) to III decade
(72.9%). Both SWM and NEM showed a declining
trend from I decade to III decade. Only the NEM
rainfall was dependable with the CV of 47.1 percent
during I decade and the CV was found to be 36.4
percent in the III decade for the NEM. The number of
rainy days was found to be decreased from I decade
to III decades in both the monsoon period.
Fig. 6: Rainfall variability for three decades at Killikulam
Kovilpatti
At Kovilpatti, the annual rainfall received during
the I decade was 707.0mm distributed in 42 rainy
days while it got reduced to 604.8 mm (14.5%
decrease) spread in 36.5 rainy days in the III
decade (Fig 7). Among the dierent seasons, the
percent contribution from SWM to annual rainfall
was found to be higher from I decade (18.8%) to III
decades (23.4%). The seasonal rainfall during SWM
showed an increasing trend and NEM recorded a
declining trend from I decade to III decade. Only
the NEM rainfall was dependable with CV of 36.4
percent during I decade and in the III decade, each
903KOKILAVANI et al., Curr. World Environ., Vol. 16(3) 898-907 (2021)
monsoonal rainfall was dependable with less than
50 percent CV. The number of rainy days was found
to be decreased from I decade to III decades in both
the monsoon period.
Arupukottai
At Arupukottai, the annual rainfall received during
the I decade was 876.7mm distributed in 47 rainy
days while it got reduced to 683.2 mm (22.1%
decrease) spread in 41.3 rainy days in the III
decade (Fig 8).Among the dierent seasons, the
percent contribution from SWM to annual rainfall
was found to be higher from I decade (29.0%) to III
decades (32.2%). The seasonal rainfall during SWM
Fig. 7: Rainfall variability for three decades at Kovilpatti
showed an increasing trend and NEM recorded a
declining trend from I decade to III decade. Only the
NEM rainfall was dependable with the CV of 41.2
percent during I decade and in the III decade, each
monsoonal rainfall was dependable with less than
50 percent CV. The number of rainy days was found
to be decreased from I decade to III decade in both
the monsoon period.
Fig. 8: Rainfall variability for three decades at Arupukottai
In the Southern Agro Climatic Zone, the reduction
in NEM rainfall during the recent past entrusted
the farmers to switch over to SRI method of rice
cultivation to reduce the water requirement under
irrigated conditions. Under the rainfed condition,
during the purattasipattam, crops like Pulses, Maize,
Chillies, Sorghum and Cotton are grown as in case
of normal rainfall pattern while the declining rainfall
trend was noticed in the recent past which made the
farmers to choose to minor millets (foxtail millet, little
millet) to increase the rainfall use eciency.
904KOKILAVANI et al., Curr. World Environ., Vol. 16(3) 898-907 (2021)
Since more area under rainfed agriculture pertains
to Southern Agro Climatic Zone, the decreasing
number of rainy days in all the seasons along with
decreasing lifeline monsoon exhibits an alert in
modifying the crop planning programme in those
areas. In many parts of Asia, the frequency of heavy
rain has increased, while the amount of rain and the
number of wet days has reduced dramatically.3,5.
Table 1a: Frequency of dierent number of rainy days during dierent seasons at Coimbatore
Season I II III
VLR LR MR RHR HR VHR VLR LR MR RHR HR VHR VLR LR MR RHR HR VHR
CWP 0.7 0.4 0.8 0 0.1 0 0.9 0.5 0.9 0.1 0 0 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0
HWP 2.6 4.8 3.3 0.5 0.1 0 5.8 3.6 4.5 0.7 0 0 5.2 3.1 4.4 0.9 0.3 0
SWM 14.5 11.7 6.3 0.8 0.2 0 23.1 9 6.1 0.6 0.4 0 21.9 9.8 5.9 0.4 0 0
NEM 7.7 8.8 10.2 1.6 0.9 0 10.1 5.2 8.7 2.5 0.6 0 9.9 5.7 7 1.7 0.2 0
Table 1b: Frequency of dierent number of rainy days during dierent seasons at Ooty
Season I II III
VLR LR MR RHR HR VHR VLR LR MR RHR HR VHR VLR LR MR RHR HR VHR
CWP 1.3 1.3 1.1 0 0 0 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.9 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
HWP 8.2 7.5 9 0.9 1 0.4 7.2 7.2 9.8 1.5 1.0 0.7 10.6 7.4 9.2 1.7 0.8 0.8
SWM 22.7 20.1 19.8 2.9 2.5 5.6 21.4 21.3 22.0 2.9 1.5 2.6 25.2 22.1 22.9 2.3 1.5 2.8
NEM 8.3 9.1 13.4 1.3 1.1 1.7 10.0 9.4 13.0 1.7 1.0 1.2 10.5 7.4 10.2 1.6 0.7 0.9
Table 1c: Frequency of dierent number of rainy days during dierent seasons at Trichy
Season I II III
VLR LR MR RHR HR VHR VLR LR MR RHR HR VHR VLR LR MR RHR HR VHR
CWP 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.5 0 0 2.4 1.6 1.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
HWP 2.7 3.5 3.8 0.6 0.9 0 6.4 4.2 5.8 1.5 0.9 0.0 2.9 3.1 4.4 1.1 0.7 0.0
SWM 4.5 7.8 13.1 4.2 0.9 0 8.7 10.0 12.9 3.6 1.3 0.0 5.6 8.5 10.5 1.8 0.4 0.0
NEM 9.5 14.9 20.7 4.1 1.5 0.7 14.5 14.7 20.5 3.2 1.6 0.5 9.5 9.6 14.5 2.9 1.1 0.4
Table 1d: Frequency of dierent number of rainy days during dierent seasons at Aduthurai
Season I II III
VLR LR MR RHR HR VHR VLR LR MR RHR HR VHR VLR LR MR RHR HR VHR
CWP 2.4 0.9 1.3 0.2 0 0 1.9 1.5 1.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 1.5 0.9 0.9 0.2 0 0
HWP 1.4 0.9 1.7 0.2 0 0 3.2 1.9 3.8 0.6 0.1 0.4 2.1 1.3 2.9 0.1 0.2 0
SWM 7.6 5.1 6.7 1.3 0.5 1 7.6 4.7 8 1.4 0.6 0.3 11.2 4.9 8.5 1.9 0.7 0
NEM 12 9.8 12.8 2.2 1.9 1.2 9.4 6.7 14 2.7 2.5 1.2 6.3 6.4 13.7 4.5 1.3 0.1
905KOKILAVANI et al., Curr. World Environ., Vol. 16(3) 898-907 (2021)
Table 1e: Frequency of dierent number of rainy days during dierent seasons at Killikulam
Season I II III
VLR LR MR RHR HR VHR VLR LR MR RHR HR VHR VLR LR MR RHR HR VHR
CWP 1 0.8 1.3 0.2 0 1 0.9 1.2 2.4 0.4 0 0 0.3 0.8 0.9 0 0 0
HWP 1.6 3.7 3.8 0.3 0 1.6 1.6 3 5.1 0.5 0 0 1.3 3.3 2.4 0.2 0 0
SWM 2.7 2.7 2.9 0.3 0.1 2.7 1.8 1.5 2.3 0.6 0 0 2 1.6 1.4 0.2 0 0
NEM 4.6 9.3 12.5 2.1 0.1 4.6 3.8 6.6 11.9 2.7 0 0 7.4 7.1 10.9 1.8 0 0
Table 1f: Frequency of dierent number of rainy days during dierent seasons at Arupukottai
Season I II III
VLR LR MR RHR HR VHR VLR LR MR RHR HR VHR VLR LR MR RHR HR VHR
CWP 0.8 0.9 0.9 0 0.2 0.1 0.7 1 0.7 0.3 0 0 0.7 0.7 0.4 0 0 0
HWP 2.7 3.3 4.8 0.5 0.1 0 2.5 3.1 5.6 0.8 0.3 0 1.9 3.6 3.4 0.8 0.2 0
SWM 4.9 5.7 6.9 1.7 0.4 0 4 4 7.3 1.3 0.2 0 3.6 5.7 6.7 0.9 0.5 0
NEM 7.4 7.5 11.2 1.9 1.1 0.1 4.1 8.1 10.2 1.9 0.8 0 5.6 6.5 9.7 1.9 0.3 0
Table 1g: Frequency of dierent number of rainy days during dierent seasons at Kovilpatti
Season I II III
VLR LR MR RHR HR VHR VLR LR MR RHR HR VHR VLR LR MR RHR HR VHR
CWP 5.3 2.7 1.3 0.3 0 0 4.2 1.5 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 1.2 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
HWP 5.6 6.7 8.9 1.3 0 0 11.3 8.0 10.9 0.9 0.4 0.0 7.8 6.0 7.6 1.2 0.0 0.0
SWM 10.9 9.6 7.6 1.7 0.4 0.0 11.8 6.2 7.8 1.5 0.2 0.0 10.6 4.0 6.6 1.4 0.6 0.0
NEM 17.5 14.4 19.6 4.2 0.9 0.0 20.7 12.2 22.5 3.4 1.8 0.0 21.4 13.0 19.6 2.0 0.6 0.0
Frequency of Rainfall Intensity for Different
Locations of Tamil Nadu
The decadal frequency of rainfall intensity for
dierent locations of Tamil Nadu are portrayed from
Table 1a to 1g.
Total number of RD was found to be 76, 83.3 and
78.1 during I, II and III decadal period for Coimbatore.
More number of VLR (14.5-I, 23.1-II & 21.9-III) was
observed during SWM and no HR incidence was
reported in the recent decade. In NEM, VLR was
found to be increased from 7.7- I to 9.9 in the III
decade and other intensity of rainfall was found to
be decreased in the recent decade.
In Ooty, the rainfall intensity classication from VLR
to VHR was reported during both SWM and NEM
respectively. Light and Moderate Rainfall intensity
has been increased while Heavy and Very Heavy
Rainfall intensity got decreased during SWM from
I to III decade. Light to very heavy rainfall intensity
got reduced during NEM except VLR intensity.Due
to a rise in the frequency of extreme events in the
global warming age, there is a growing trend in the
irregularity of daily rainfall activity.9
Total number of RD was found to be 95.5, 115.7
and 78.5 during I, II and III decadal period for Trichy.
Since, the rainfall intensity categories varying from
906KOKILAVANI et al., Curr. World Environ., Vol. 16(3) 898-907 (2021)
LR to VHR reduced in both SWM and NEM from I
decade to III decade, the total number of rainy days
decreased in the III decade.Total number of RD was
found to be 71.1, 74.4 and 69.6 during I, II and III
decadal period for Aduthurai. The total number of
rainfall intensity values were found to be more or
less equal during SWM and NEM season, minimal
variation was found at Aduthurai location.
Total number of RD was found to be 50, 46.3 and
41.6 during I, II and III decadal period for Killikulam.
Heavy and Very High Rainfall intensity was absent
in the II and III decade. Total number of RD was
found to be 63.1, 56.9 and 53.1 during I, II and III
decadal period for Arupukottai. During NEM, LR and
MR was found to be lower when compared with I
and III decade.Total number of RD was found to be
118.9, 127.5 and 107.8 during I, II and III decadal
period for Kovilpatti. Since, total number of rainfall
intensity values were found to be more or less equal
during SWM and NEM season, minimal variation was
found at Kovilpatti. The frequency of rainfall intensity
revealed that except Ooty, the number of Heavy
Rain (HR) to VHR(VHR) was found to be meagre to
absent in most of the studied locations. The rainfall
intensity frequency for Coimbatore inferred similar
ndings.1
Conclusion
It's worth looking at the frequency and intensity
trends separately since it's feasible that the
number of extreme occurrences will rise without a
commensurate rise in the intensity of each event.
The results of the study indicated that an increasing
trend in SWM rainfall was observed in Coimbatore
(209.3 to 300.6mm), Ooty (681.4 to 703.1mm),
Aduthurai (227.8 to 320.6mm), Kovilpatti (132.8 to
141.3 mm) while decreasing trend was observed in
rest of the places. A decreasing trend was reported
in general for all the places during NEM. Decreasing
trend in number of rainy days was registered in
Kovilpatti, Virudhunagar and Killikulam that exhibits
an alert in modifying the crop planning programme
in those areas. The frequency of rainfall intensity
revealed that except Ooty, the number of Heavy
Rain (HR) to VHR(VHR) was found to be meagre
to absent in most of the study locations. The daily
rainfall analysis would also pave a way to x the
reasonable premium and relatedpayout structure
for the rainfall-based crop insurance products in the
specic location.
Acknowledgement
The authors would like to thank Agro Climate
Research Centre, Tamil Nadu Agricultural
Universityfor the support to carry out the research
in a successful way. The author also profoundly
grateful for other research stations for sparing the
valuable meteorological data.
Funding
There is no funding or nancial support for this
research work.
Conict of interest
There is no conict of interest in the manuscript.
References
1. Arthi Rani B, Manikandan N, Maragatham
N. Trend analysis of rainfall and frequency
of rainy days over Coimbatore. MAUSAM.
2014;3, 379-384
2. Bandyopadhyay J,Perveen SA.Scrutiny of the
justications for the proposed interlinking of
rivers in India. Interlinking of rivers in India:
Overview and Ken-Betwa link,2006, 23.
3. Dash SK, Jenamani RK, Kalsi SR, Panda
SK. Some evidence of climate change in
twentieth-century India. Climatic Change.
2007; 85, 299-321.
4. Gajbhiye S, Meshram C, Singh S K,
Srivastava PK, Islam T. Precipitation trend
analysis of Sindh River basin, India, from
102-year record (1901–2002). Atmospheric
Science Letters, 2015; 17(1), 71-77.
5. Kumar V, Jain SK, Singh Y. Analysis of long-
term rainfall trends in India. Hydrological
Sciences Journal–Journal des Sciences
Hydrologiques. 2010; 55(4), 484-496.
6. Langhans C, Govers G, Diels J, Clymans W,
Van den PutteA. Dependence of eective
hydraulic conductivity on rainfall intensity:
loamy agricultural soils. Hydrol. Processes.
2010. 24, 2257-2268.
907KOKILAVANI et al., Curr. World Environ., Vol. 16(3) 898-907 (2021)
7. Meshram SG, Singh VP,Meshram C. Long-
term trend and variability of precipitation in
Chhattisgarh State, India. Theoretical and
Applied Climatology, 2017;129(3-4).
8. Mirhosseini G, Srivastava P, Stefanova L.
The impact of climate change on rainfall
intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves in
Alabama. Reg. Environ. Change 13 (Suppl.
1). 2013; S25-S33.
9. Nandargi S, Mulye SS. Relationships
between Rainy Days, Mean Daily Intensity,
and Seasonal Rainfall over the Koyna
Catchment during 1961–2005. The Scientic
World Journal. 2012; 894313-10.
10. Prasada Rao GSLHV, Rao GSN, Rao VUM.
Climate change and agriculture over India.
PHI Learning Private Limited. New Delhi.
2010; pp. 1-42.
11. Sen Roy S. Balling RC. Trends in extreme
daily precipitation indices in India. Int. J.
Climatol. 2004;24 457-466.
12. Srivastava PK, Mehta A, Gupta M, Singh SK,
Islam T. Assessing impact of climate change
on Mundra mangrove forestecosystem, Gulf
of Kutch, western coast of India: a synergistic
evaluation using remote sensing. Theoretical
and Applied Climatology, 2015;120(3-4),
685-700.
13. Vinay K, PrathipatiNaidu CV, Prasanna
Konatham. Inconsistency in the frequency of
rainfall events in the Indian summer monsoon
season. International Journal of Climatology.
2019; 39,13.
14. Walthall CL, Hat¬eld J, Backlund P, Lengnick
L, et al. Climate Change and Agriculture in
the United States: E¬ects and Adaptation.
USDA Technical Bulletin. Washington, DC.
2012;186 pages.
... The experimental site (Gupta 2014) is located 8 km from Ooty town, India (11.4°N latitude, 76.7°E longitude, 2200 m altitude), and belongs to the Nilgiris mountain range, which is part of a larger chain of Western Ghats mountains along the western side of India (https:// www.tifr.res.in/grapes3/). Despite being situated in the tropics, Ooty has a subtropical highland climate with mild and pleasant conditions (Santha and Devi, 2020;Kokilavani et al., 2021). Nights are typically chilly from December to February. ...
... The monthly mean temperatures remain relatively consistent throughout the year, with average high daytime temperatures ranging from 18°C to 22°C and average low nighttime temperatures ranging between 5°C and 12°C. The annual average precipitation is 1250 mm, with a noticeably drier season from December to February (Udayasoorian et al., 2014;Kokilavani et al., 2021). Like most parts of South India, Ooty experiences two monsoon seasons during summer (southwest) and autumn (northeast). ...
... Surprisingly, the observed events during the summer season (June to August) total only 29, despite the majority of rainfall occurring during this period in Ooty (Kokilavani et al., 2021) and the Indian peninsula (Manohar et al., 1999). It is worth noting that not all tropical thunderstorms generate strong lightning. ...
Article
For 50 days full text view: https://authors.elsevier.com/a/1iuvd4sIll2E9G The GRAPES-3 tracking muon telescope located at Ooty (India) records short-term variations in the muon in tensity during major thunderstorms, termed thunderstorm-induced muon events (TIMEs). Its excellent angular resolution, coupled with high statistics, allows us to observe subtle directional variations in muon rate. We detected 169 statistically significant events during the five-year period from 2006 through 2010. The monthly and seasonal variation patterns of the observed TIMEs were discussed, emphasizing their occurrence and climatological aspects. The annual diurnal pattern was plotted with the Carnegie curve, considering their possible causal link with the global electric circuit. The work represents the first report from any experiment for such an extended period in an uninterrupted manner.
... Extreme climatic events, namely floods, cyclones, droughts and heat waves, harm global socio-economic, biophysical and ecological systems (4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9). Many countries worldwide are anticipated to experience rising temperatures and changes in the distribution of rainfall over the seasons, as well as an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events (10)(11)(12)(13)(14). Extreme weather conditions are consequences of climate change, which consequently induces anxiety globally due to its threat to agriculture and food security (15)(16)(17)(18)(19). No sector is more susceptible to climate https://plantsciencetoday.online disasters and catastrophic weather phenomena than the agricultural sector. ...
Article
Full-text available
Climate change is the most serious problem of the last two centuries. It is being observed as a silent threat to global food production, leading to food insecurity for the burgeoning population. Rice is an important food crop and has also been identified as sensitive and highly vulnerable to climate change. Global rice production is affected by climate change and will soon be seen as a food security threat. Climatic factors like temperature, rainfall, wind speed, relative humidity, and solar radiation significantly impact physiological, biochemical and morphological traits, eventually resulting in a decline in yield. The whole process is discussed in this review. Several previous studies focused more on the impact of climate change on the productivity and production of crops without paying any or less attention to the vulnerability of value chain actors to climate risks and climate-related losses in the value chain. The climate risk management by value chain approach establishes connections between input suppliers, farmers, processors, retailers and consumers, identifying risks and formulating adaptation and mitigation strategies at every stage across the value chain. The identified appropriate strategy from the review, including climate-resilient rice varieties, conservation agricultural practices, climate-smart cultivation and water management techniques, could reduce the impact of climate change and enhance food security.
... The climate extremes highly vary over time and geographical features [3], thus making it hazardous, particularly affecting the crop production. Monitoring the spatiotemporal changes in the occurrences of precipitation extremes with credible weather information [4] is essential for preventing hydrological disasters [5][6][7] and reducing the hazards caused by extreme fluctuations in rainfall patterns [8,9] for both current and future climates [10], that inflict the loss on crop production and socio-economy of the country [11,12]. Soltani et al. [13] has reported that the extreme events like drought (more dry periods), flood and cyclone (extreme rainfall) generally occur due to alteration in rainfall frequency. ...
Article
Full-text available
Rainfall is a crucial agrometeorological parameter that impacts hydrology and agricultural planning in a region. The spatiotemporal changes in the occurrences of precipitation extremes must be monitored to reduce the hazards caused by the fluctuating rainfall pattern. The extreme rainfall indices for each year categorized under excess, normal and deficit rainfall categories were calculated over the agroclimatic zones of Tamil Nadu using the high-resolution CHIRPS datasets from 1991 to 2022. The results highlighted that High Rainfall Zone has more consecutive wet days (22 days), minimum consecutive dry days (25 days) and Daily Intensity Index with threshold of 2.5 mm (28.6 mm) compared to other zones. The maximum consecutive dry days of 99 days, a high rainy day of 142 days, and minimum daily intensity of 8.9 mm are experienced by the Cauvery Delta Zone, High Altitude and Hilly Zone, and Western Zone, respectively. Overall, the High Rainfall Zone faces a higher number of extreme rainfall events in terms of wet days and intensity, whereas the average maximum consecutive dry days and minimum rainfall intensity is observed over the north eastern zone and north western zone, respectively indicating high dry periods.
Preprint
Full-text available
Increased anthropogenic activity in recent decades has resulted in major global climate change. This paper mainly focuses on the assessment of changes occurring in the spatio -temporal distribution of rainfall with 40-years database of monthly precipitation for Seasonal Precipitation Concentration Index (SPCI) and trends in Tamil Nadu. The hydro-meteorological time series rainfall data over a period of 40 years (1981–2020) was collected from Tamil Nadu Agricultural University and India Meteorological Department and subsequently analysed using various statistical methods for Tamil Nadu. The SPCI was analysed for both southwest and northeast monsoon. SPCI values (< 10) revealed that the rainfall was uniformly distributed in southwest and SPCI values (> 10) showed that more weather extremes were observed during northeast monsoon. Mann–Kendall, non-parametric test was done using trend software for both the monsoon. During southwest, significant increasing trend in rainfall was observed at Coimbatore (1.8mm/season/year), Erode (2.1mm/season/year), Perambular (2.1mm/season/year), Theni(2.0mm/season/year) and Tirunelveli (2.4 mm/season/year) while significant decreasing trend in rainfall was observed at Namakkal(2.5 mm/season/year). During northeast, significant increasing trend in rainfall was observed Kancheepuram (2.4 mm/season/year), Tutucorin(2.6 mm/season/year) and Villupuram(2.0 mm/season/year).
Article
Full-text available
In global warming, India is adversely affected by weather extremes. Summer monsoon contributes about 70% of annual mean rainfall to India by mode of an ensemble of synoptic disturbances and intense events. These events bring extreme amounts of rainfall in very few days. We have studied the anomalies of rainfall events for wet days (>0 mm rainfall), dry days (=0 mm), little rainfall days (>0 to <20 mm), moderate rainfall days (≥20 mm to <60 mm), heavy rainfall days (≥ 60 to <100 mm) and very heavy rainfall days (≥ 100 mm) during the period, 1901–1930; 1931–1960; 1961–1990 and 1991–2015 using India Meteorological Department (IMD) rainfall data. In the present scenario, even though an extensive increase in frequency of lows forming in the Bay of Bengal is observed, only a few are intensified into depressions and above stages. Alternatively, monsoon circulation is trailing its strength; therefore extreme (heavy and very heavy rainfall) events came into existence to balance the mean rainfall activity. The rise in these events may be due to an increasing inconsistency of the strength of low‐level jet, an increase of sea surface temperature over the Arabian Sea and dynamic flow of moisture supply to inland from neighbourhood seas. An increase in the frequency of extreme rainfall events is seen over Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Jammu & Kashmir, central Northeast India (CNEI) and west central India (WCI) in the recent years (25 years) compared to previous 9 decades. Whereas, a decrease in the frequencies of little and moderate rainfall events are observed over the parts of the Western Ghats, Northeast India, WCI and CNEI. There is an increasing trend in the inconsistency of daily rainfall activity due to an increase in the frequency of extreme events in the global warming era.
Article
Full-text available
Spatial and temporal precipitation variability in Chhattisgarh State in India was examined by using monthly precipitation data for 102 years (1901–2002) from 16 stations. The homogeneity of precipitation data was evaluated by the double-mass curve approach and the presence of serial correlation by lag-1 autocorrelation coefficient. Linear regression analysis, the conventional Mann–Kendall (MK) test, and Spearman’s rho were employed to identify trends and Sen’s slope to estimate the slope of trend line. The coefficient of variation (CV) was used to analyze precipitation variability. Spatial interpolation was done by a Kriging process using ArcGIS 9.3. Results of both parametric and non-parametric tests and trend tests showed that at 5 % significance level, annual precipitation exhibited a decreasing trend at all stations except Bilaspur and Dantewada. For both annual and monsoon precipitation, Sen’s test showed a decreasing trend for all stations, except Bilaspur and Dantewada. The highest percentage of variability was observed in winter precipitation (88.75 %) and minimum percentage variability in annual series (14.01 %) over the 102-year periods.
Article
Full-text available
The study of long-term precipitation record is critically important for a country, whose food security and economy rely on the timely availability of water. In this study, the historical 102-year (1901-2002) rainfall data of the Sindh River basin (SRB), India, were analyzed for seasonal and annual trends. The Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope model were used to identify the trend and the magnitude of the change, respectively. Spatial interpolation technique such as Kriging was used for interpolating the spatial pattern over SRB in GIS environment. The analysis revealed the significantly increasing precipitation trend in both seasonal and annual rainfall in the span of 102years.
Article
Full-text available
Rainfall is very crucial for the economic development, disaster management, hydrological planning for the country. In the context of climate change, it is pertinent to ascertain whether the characteristic of Indian rainfall is also changing. Using daily rainfall data for the period of 1907-2012 analysis were carried out, to find out the change in rainfall and frequency of rainfall intensity. Results indicated that the annual rainfall is not dependable. Contribution of NEM to the total rainfall is 50.3 percent which was followed by SWM (26.3%). Contribution of NEM during every 30 years of periods was constantly increasing and the increasing trend was statistically significant at 95% confidence level. Total number of rainy days (very light, light, moderate, rather heavy, heavy, very heavy rainy days) during the study period was 80.2 days, in which the frequency of very light rainy days (35.0 days) was highest followed by light (20.7 days) and moderate rainy days (20.8 days). Trend analysis was done for all categories of rainfall to find out the presence of increasing or decreasing trend. Total number of rainy days slightly gets decreasing in all the seasons except NEM where the rainy days are increasing but the changes were not statistically significant. The results showed that there is no change in long term of monthly, seasonal, annual rainfall and frequency of rainy days. Hence, it can be concluded that there is no climate change observed over Coimbatore.
Article
Full-text available
Mangrove cover changes have globally raised the apprehensions as the changes influence the coastal climate as well as the marine ecosystem services. The main goals of this research are focused on the monitoring of land cover and mangrove spatial changes particularly for the Mundra forest in the western coast of Gujarat state, India, which is famous for its unique mangrove bio-diversity. The multi-temporal Indian Remote Sensing (IRS) Linear Imaging Self Scanning (LISS)-II (IRS-1B) and III (IRS P6/RESOURCESAT-1)
Article
Full-text available
The study of precipitation trends is critically important for a country like India whose food security and economy are dependent on the timely availability of water. In this work, monthly, seasonal and annual trends of rainfall have been studied using monthly data series of 135 years (1871–2005) for 30 sub-divisions (sub-regions) in India. Half of the sub-divisions showed an increasing trend in annual rainfall, but for only three (Haryana, Punjab and Coastal Karnataka), this trend was statistically significant. Similarly, only one sub-division (Chattisgarh) indicated a significant decreasing trend out of the 15 sub-divisions showing decreasing trend in annual rainfall. In India, the monsoon months of June to September account for more than 80% of the annual rainfall. During June and July, the number of sub-divisions showing increasing rainfall is almost equal to those showing decreasing rainfall. In August, the number of sub-divisions showing an increasing trend exceeds those showing a decreasing trend, whereas in September, the situation is the opposite. The majority of sub-divisions showed very little change in rainfall in non-monsoon months. The five main regions of India showed no significant trend in annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall in most of the months. For the whole of India, no significant trend was detected for annual, seasonal, or monthly rainfall. Annual and monsoon rainfall decreased, while pre-monsoon, post-monsoon and winter rainfall increased at the national scale. Rainfall in June, July and September decreased, whereas in August it increased, at the national scale.Citation Kumar, V., Jain, S. K. & Singh, Y. (2010) Analysis of long-term rainfall trends in India. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(4), 484–496.
Article
Full-text available
The study of climate changes in India and search for robust evidences are issues of concern specially when it is known that poor people are very vulnerable to climate changes. Due to the vast size of India and its complex geography, climate in this part of the globe has large spatial and temporal variations. Important weather events affecting India are floods and droughts, monsoon depressions and cyclones, heat waves, cold waves, prolonged fog and snowfall. Results of this comprehensive study based on observed data and model reanalyzed fields indicate that in the last century, the atmospheric surface temperature in India has enhanced by about 1 and 1.1°C during winter and post-monsoon months respectively. Also decrease in the minimum temperature during summer monsoon and its increase during post-monsoon months have created a large difference of about 0.8°C in the seasonal temperature anomalies which may bring about seasonal asymmetry and hence changes in atmospheric circulation. Opposite phases of increase and decrease in the minimum temperatures in the southern and northern regions of India respectively have been noticed in the interannual variability. In north India, the minimum temperature shows sharp decrease of its magnitude between 1955 and 1972 and then sharp increase till date. But in south India, the minimum temperature has a steady increase. The sea surface temperatures (SST) of Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal also show increasing trend. Observations indicate occurrence of more extreme temperature events in the east coast of India in the recent past. During summer monsoon months, there is a decreasing (increasing) trend in the frequency of depressions (low pressure areas). In the last century the frequency of occurrence of cyclonic storms shows increasing trend in the month of November. In addition there is increase in the number of severe cyclonic storms crossing Indian Coast. Analysis of rainfall amount during different seasons indicate decreasing tendency in the summer monsoon rainfall over Indian landmass and increasing trend in the rainfall during pre-monsoon and post-monsoon months.
Article
Changes in the hydrologic cycle due to increase in greenhouse gases are projected to cause variations in intensity, duration, and frequency of precipitation events. Quantifying the potential effects of climate change and adapting to them is one way to reduce vulnerability. Since rainfall characteristics are often used to design water management infrastructures, reviewing and updating rainfall characteristics (i.e., Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) curves) for future climate scenarios is necessary. This study was undertaken to assess expected changes in IDF curves from the current climate to the projected future climate. To provide future IDF curves, 3-hourly precipitation data simulated by six combinations of global and regional climate models were temporally downscaled using a stochastic method. Performance of the downscaling method was evaluated, and IDF curves were developed for the state of Alabama. The results of all six climate models suggest that the future precipitation patterns for Alabama are expected to veer toward less intense rainfalls for short duration events. However, for long duration events (i.e., >4 h), the results are not consistent across the models. Given a large uncertainty existed on projected rainfall intensity of these six climate models, developing an ensemble model as a result of incorporating all six climate models, performing an uncertainty analysis, and creating a probability based IDF curves could be proper solutions to diminish this uncertainty.
Article
Effective hydraulic conductivity (Ke) can be estimated with statistical models derived from datasets of field measured conductivities. Pedotransfer functions (PTFs) estimate constant Ke values, but suffer from large prediction errors because the functions usually do not account for soil structural heterogeneities. Rainfall-runoff data have shown that the effective hydraulic conductivity, defined as final infiltration rate at steady state given ponding, is dependent on rainfall intensity. In this study a statistical approach to establish functions for rainfall intensity-dependent Ke values is presented, including some specific functions for Western European loamy agricultural soils. Steady-state rainfall experiments have been conducted with a drip-type rainfall simulator at multiple intensities on small plots, installed on fields covered by four typical crops of the central part of the Belgian loess belt. A mixed linear model has been applied to temperature standardized and ln-transformed values of apparent steady-state infiltration rate and rainfall intensity data for the determination of significant explanatory variables and their parameters. Crop type was a necessary classification effect that accounts for much of the variation that could not be explained by continuous variables of soil and surface properties. However, soil surface bulk density, silt and sand content, tortuosity in surface microtopography, plant and residue cover (RC) were predictors that improved predictions combined with crop effect. Model efficiency (ME) values were between 0·81 and 0·97 for calibration and between 0·75 and 0·95 for validation. The application of the functions is limited to sloping, loamy agricultural soils in a Western European climate, during the spring and early summer growing phase, with not fully developed canopy cover and an RC of less than 20%. These limitations bound field conditions that are vulnerable to severe erosion events. A dynamic Ke could be applied in infiltration models, changing runoff and erosion response in hillslope models. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Article
We assembled daily precipitation records, initially for 3838 stations, throughout India and ultimately identified 129 stations with reasonably complete records over the period 1910 to 2000. From these daily records, we generated annual time series of seven different indices of extreme precipitation events, including total precipitation, largest 1, 5, and 30 day totals, and the number of daily events above the amount that marks the 90th, 95th, and 97.5th percentiles of all precipitation at each station. Of the 903 different time series (seven variables for 129 stations), 114 had a significant upward trend and 61 had a significant downward trend; overall, 61% of the time series showed an upward trend. The standard regression coefficients showing the strength and sign of the trend were highly correlated across the network. They generally showed increasing values in a contiguous region extending from the northwestern Himalayas in Kashmir through most of the Deccan Plateau in the south and decreasing values in the eastern part of the Gangetic Plain and parts of Uttaranchal. Our results are in general agreement with the prediction from numerical models for an increase in extreme precipitation events in India given the ongoing build-up of greenhouse gases. Copyright © 2004 Royal Meteorological Society