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Food Security Challenges of Climate Change: An Analysis for Policy Selection in Malaysia
Abstract
The key goal of this chapter is to examine and assess the effect of various adaptation strategies and their related costs on macroeconomic variables such as real gross domestic product (RGDP), government spending, exports, net consumption and net production, and food sustainability over time as a means of addressing Malaysia’s climate change and food security issues. Our research focuses on the agriculture sector since Malaysia is becoming increasingly reliant on imported food, which could increase as a result of climate change. The results from the proposed Malaysian Integrated Climate and Economy (MICE) model are presented in this chapter in order to determine which adaptation policy alternative would be most successful in addressing long-term food security issues caused by climate change impacts. The comparative results of likely adaptation policies with various levels of adaptation are also simulated in this chapter. The chapter focuses on food security challenges and how climate change effects transform into agro-economic damage, as well as how the damage can be mitigated by effective response measures and interventions. Finally, the chapter calculates the economic risks of climate change with and without adaptive policies, as well as their economic effects, in order to determine which adaptation measures would be most successful in mitigating climate-change-related costs and impacts on agro-food security problems.
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In many countries around the world impacts of climate change are assessed and adaptation options identified. We describe an
approach for a qualitative and quantitative assessment of adaptation options to respond to climate change in the Netherlands.
The study introduces an inventory and ranking of adaptation options based on stakeholder analysis and expert judgement, and
presents some estimates of incremental costs and benefits. The qualitative assessment focuses on ranking and prioritisation of adaptation options. Options are selected and identified and discussed
by stakeholders on the basis of a sectoral approach, and assessed with respect to their importance, urgency and other characteristics
by experts. The preliminary quantitative assessment identifies incremental costs and benefits of adaptation options. Priority ranking based on a weighted sum of criteria
reveals that in the Netherlands integrated nature and water management and risk based policies rank high, followed by policies
aiming at ‘climate proof’ housing and infrastructure.
Substitution elasticities in policy-oriented computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are key parameters for model results since they determine behaviour in these models. As Dawkins et al. (2001) observe, the current situation with regard to the elasticities available for use in these models is poor. We focus on an important type of elasticity that is widely used in CGE models with international trade: the so-called ‘Armington’ elasticities (Armington, 1969). These elasticities are well known for their critical role in determining model results. We present an alternative approach to quantifying Armington elasticities which is consistent across historical databases. The approach is used to derive elasticities from successive databases of a commonly-used global CGE model, the GTAP model.
The authors measure the economic impact of climate on land prices. Using cross-sectional data on climate, farmland prices, and other economic and geophysical data for almost 3,000 counties in the United States, they find that higher temperatures in all seasons except autumn reduce average farm values, while more precipitation outside of autumn increases farm values. Applying the model to a global-warming scenario shows a significantly lower estimated impact of global warming on U.S. agriculture than the traditional production-function approach and, in one case, suggests that, even without carbon dioxide fertilization, global warming may have economic benefits for agriculture. Copyright 1994 by American Economic Association.