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Assessment of Fire Hazard and Its Dynamics in Forest Areas of Siberia
Abstract
The existing methods for the assessment of fire hazard are analyzed. For the forest regions of Siberia, which are known for the highest indicators of fire hazard, data has been assembled on the degree of natural and weather-dependent fire hazard, as well as the hazard from a source of ignition. It is proposed to assess the natural fire hazard with allowance for the geographical-zonal and general inflammability features of the forest-site types and the forest regions of Siberia. The need to take into account the dynamics of fire hazard has been noted, especially after fire-hazard seasons characterized by an extreme degree of flammability. In remote areas, it is proposed to assess the dynamics of the natural fire hazard of territories based on the predicted state of forest ecosystems after the impact of fires. The proposed method has been tested on the territory of the Nizhneangarsk forest region, and a high reliability was found for the assessment of the postfire state of forest stands (in 87% of cases). The natural fire-hazard dynamics in the Kodinsky and Gremuchinsky forest districts of the Krasnoyarsk Territory have been analyzed based on the prediction of the forest-fire aftermath. The study has also revealed significantly increased areas of forest lands characterized by the first class of natural fire hazard after the impact of several large fires in 1996 and 2006 and an increase in fire-hazard class in some of the forestry units and on the territory of the Gremuchinsky forest district as a whole.
... The damage from such fires in Russia over the past 5 years, according to official data alone, amounted to 65.5 billion rubles. Climate changes in recent years have only worsened the situation [1,2]. Substantial funds are invested in protecting forests from fires, including extinguishing measures. ...
Wildfires are a serious problem in many countries. In 2022, the President of Russia tasked the leadership of the different regions to reduce the average annual area of forest fires by two times by 2030. To implement this, the amount of funding has been doubled. For each region, a standard for annual forest burnability was established to prevent excessive burning, to satisfactorily protect forests from fires. At the same time, when calculating the standard, a simplified approach was used, where a value that decreased from the current level was inversely proportional to an increase in funding. This paper presents an alternative approach to the calculation of the standard, based on the rate of restoration of the initial (to fire) reforestation and taking into account the correction coefficients.
The vast Angara region, with an area of 13.8 million ha, is located in the southern taiga of central Siberia, Russia. This is one of the most disturbed regions by both fire and logging in northern Asia. We have developed surface and ground fuel-load maps by integrating satellite and ground-based data with respect to the forest-growing conditions and the disturbance of the territory by anthropogenic and natural factors (fires and logging). We found that from 2001 to 2020, fuel loads increased by 8% in the study region, mainly due to a large amount of down woody debris at clearcuts and burned sites. The expansion of the disturbed areas in the Angara region resulted in an increase in natural fire hazards in spring and summer. Annual carbon emissions from fires varied from 0.06 to 6.18 Mt, with summer emissions accounting for more than 95% in extreme fire years and 31–68% in the years of low fire activity. While the trend in the increase in annual carbon emissions from fires is not statistically significant due to its high interannual variability and a large disturbance of the study area, there are significantly increasing trends in mean carbon emissions from fires per unit area (p < 0.005) and decadal means (p < 0.1). In addition, we found significant trends in the increase in emissions released by severe fires (p < 0.005) and by fires in wetter, dark, coniferous (spruce, p < 0.005 and Siberian pine, p < 0.025) forests. This indicates deeper burning and loss of legacy carbon that impacts on the carbon cycle resulting in climate feedback.
Objective data on the burnt forest areas obtained over a long observation period are urgently needed for the studies of various processes connected with the occurrence and consequences of forest fires. This kind of information for the territory of Russia can only be obtained with the use of satellite observations because of its large area and heterogeneity. One of the most trusted sources of this information is based on the observations of active burning. These data have their drawbacks caused primarily by the low spatial resolution of the data used (from hundreds of meters to kilometers). At the same time they provide an acceptable frequency of observations to monitor the spreading of forest fires (several times a day). And what is most important about these data, the large, homogeneous (comparable in space and time) data sets have already been accumulated. It makes it possible to use the data not only for real-time monitoring of forest fire status, but also to obtain information about the long-term dynamics of the forest fires distribution in large areas. This paper presents the methodology of assessment and analysis of the forest burnt areas based on satellite observations of active burning developed at the Space Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IKI RAS). This methodology has been used for more than ten years in a number of scientific and applied systems, including the Information System for Remote Monitoring of Forest Fires, the Federal Forestry Agency of the Russian Federation (ISDM Rosleskhoz, https://nffc.aviales.ru). Particular attention is paid to the issues of accuracy assessment of the obtained estimates. The paper also summarizes the capabilities of various tools implemented in the VEGA-Science system (http://scivega. ru/) for analysis of long time series on forest fires accumulated in the system. The main focus is presentation and discussion of data on forest fires, that occurred in the territory of Russia during the fire seasons of the years 2001-2016. The paper presents estimates of the areas, burnt by forest fires during this period. It should be noted, that the information given not only concerns the total burnt forest areas estimates in the territory of the country, but also the particular burnt area distribution between certain forest types and between specific periods of fire seasons. In particular, the paper concludes that although the dynamics of total burnt forest area did not demonstrate any significant trends, it is still notable that the average burnt forest areas have been considerably increased during the 21st century. The paper also provides information about the frequency of the fires occurrence in different areas and how it changed in specific periods of the 21st century.
During the past several decades, the Earth system has changed significantly, especially across Northern Eurasia. Changes in the socio-economic conditions of the larger countries in the region have also resulted in a variety of regional environmental changes that can have global consequences. The Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI) has been designed as an essential continuation of the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), which was launched in 2004. NEESPI sought to elucidate all aspects of ongoing environmental change, to inform societies and, thus, to better prepare societies for future developments. A key principle of NEFI is that these developments must now be secured through science-based strategies co-designed with regional decision-makers to lead their societies to prosperity in the face of environmental and institutional challenges. NEESPI scientific research, data, and models have created a solid knowledge base to support the NEFI program. This paper presents the NEFI research vision consensus based on that knowledge. It provides the reader with samples of recent accomplishments in regional studies and formulates new NEFI science questions. To address these questions, nine research foci are identified and their selections are briefly justified. These foci include warming of the Arctic; changing frequency, pattern, and intensity of extreme and inclement environmental conditions; retreat of the cryosphere; changes in terrestrial water cycles; changes in the biosphere; pressures on land use; changes in infrastructure; societal actions in response to environmental change; and quantification of Northern Eurasia’s role in the global Earth system. Powerful feedbacks between the Earth and human systems in Northern Eurasia (e.g., mega-fires, droughts, depletion of the cryosphere essential for water supply, retreat of sea ice) result from past and current human activities (e.g., large-scale water withdrawals, land use, and governance change) and potentially restrict or provide new opportunities for future human activities. Therefore, we propose that integrated assessment models are needed as the final stage of global change assessment. The overarching goal of this NEFI modeling effort will enable evaluation of economic decisions in response to changing environmental conditions and justification of mitigation and adaptation efforts.
Climate strongly influences global wildfire activity, and recent wildfire surges may signal fire weather-induced pyrogeographic shifts. Here we use three daily global climate data sets and three fire danger indices to develop a simple annual metric of fire weather season length, and map spatio-temporal trends from 1979 to 2013. We show that fire weather seasons have lengthened across 29.6 million km2 (25.3%) of the Earth’s vegetated surface, resulting in an 18.7% increase in global mean fire weather season length. We also show a doubling (108.1% increase) of global burnable area affected by long fire weather seasons (>1.0 σ above the historical mean) and an increased global frequency of long fire weather seasons across 62.4 million km2 (53.4%) during the second half of the study period. If these fire weather changes are coupled with ignition sources and available fuel, they could markedly impact global ecosystems, societies, economies and climate.
A fire history of northern larch forests was studied. These larch forests are found near the northern limit of their range at ,718N, where fires are predominantly caused by lightning strikes rather than human activity. Fire-return intervals (FRIs) were calculated based on fire scars and dates of tree natality. Tree natality was used as an approximation of the date of the last fire. The average FRI was found to be 295 AE 57 years, which is the longest reported for larch-dominated stands. Prior studies reported 80–90-year FRIs at 648N and ,200 years near the latitude of the Arctic Circle. Comparing data from fires that occurred in 1700–1849 (end of the Little Ice Age, LIA) and 1850–1999 (post-LIA warming) indicates approximately twice as many fires occurred during the latter period. This agrees with the hypothesis that observed climatic warming will result in an increase in fire frequency. Our results also indicate that fires that did not leave visible fire scars on the tree stem may be identified based on the date of growth release revealed from dendrochronology. Additional keywords: Larix gmelinii, wildfires.
The effect of climate change on the distribution, intensity, and transforming role of wild fires is considered. A general overview of the current wild fire regimes (WRs) and impacts on forest ecosystems and environment is provided. One distinctive feature of WRs is the increasing frequency of disastrous wild fires. The application of various remote sensing instruments has shown that the average vegetation wild fire area in Russia for 1998–2010 accounted for 8.2 ± 0.8 × 106 ha, with about two-thirds of wildfires occurring on forest lands and half on the forested lands. The average annual fire carbon balance during the above period was 121 ± 28 Tg C yr–1, including 92 ± 18 Tg C yr–1 emitted from the forested land. The forecasts based on the General Circulation Models suggest the dramatic acceleration of fire regimes by the end of the 21st century. Taking into account the increase in the dryness of the climate and the thawing of permafrost, this will likely lead to a dramatic loss of forested area and the impoverishment of the forest cover over a major part of the forest zone. A transition to adaptive forestry would allow a substantial decrease of the expected losses. This paper takes a brief look at the general principals of adapting forest fire protection system to climate change, which is considered an integral part of the transition to sustainable forest management in Russia.
Wildland fire is a global phenomenon, and a result of interactions between climate–weather, fuels and people. Our climate is changing,rapidly primarily through the release of greenhouse,gases that may,have profound,and possibly unexpected,impacts on global fire activity. The present paper reviews the current understanding,of what the future may bring with respect to wildland fire and discusses future options for research and management. To date, research suggests a general increase in area burned and fire occurrence but there is a lot of spatial variability, with some areas of no change or even decreases in area burned,and occurrence. Fire seasons are lengthening,for temperate,and boreal regions and this trend should continue in a warmer,world. Future trends of fire severity and intensity are difficult to determine,owing,to the complex and non-linear interactions between weather, vegetation and people. Improved fire data are required along with continued global studies that dynamically include weather, vegetation, people, and other disturbances. Lastly, we need more research on the role of policy, practices and human behaviour because most of the global fire activity is directly attributable to people. Additional keywords: area burned, carbon, emissions, fire activity, forest fire, intensity, management, modelling,
Fire activity in Russia in 2000–2008 was analysed on the basis of the newest satellite MODIS MCD45 Burned Area data. The estimated annual burned areas exhibited strong variability in magnitude, geographical location and affected vegetation, varying in total from 5.4 Mha in 2000 to 33.0 Mha in 2008. The total area burned in 2000–2008 in forests and woodlands (the areas with percent tree canopy cover >40%) was 43.4 Mha, of which about 90% was burned in the eastern Siberia and the Far East, and 53% was burned during the large fire years 2003 and 2008. The forest burned areas were mainly localized within 50–55°N, approximately along the southern edge of the area of boreal forests. The reliability of the resultant estimates was tested by comparison with the known early published results. Some applications of the results in problems of atmospheric composition and air quality are also discussed.
Significant climatic changes over Northern Eurasia during the 20th century have been reflected in numerous variables of economic, social, and ecological interest, including the natural frequency of forest fires. For the former USSR, we are now using the Global Daily Climatology Network and a new Global Synoptic Data Network archive, GSDN, created jointly by U.S. National Climatic Data Center and Russian Research Institute for Hydrometeorological Information. Data from these archives (approximately 1500 of them having sufficiently long meteorological time series suitable for participation in our analyses) are employed to estimate systematic changes in indices used in the United States and Russia to assess potential forest fire danger. We use four indices: (1) Keetch–Byram Drought Index, (KBDI; this index was developed and widely used in the United States); (2) Nesterov, (3) Modified Nesterov, and (4) Zhdanko Indices (these indices were developed and widely used in Russia). Analyses show that after calibration, time series of the days with increased potential forest fire danger constructed using each of these three indices (a) are well correlated and (b) deliver similar conclusions about systematic changes in the weather conditions conducive to forest fires. Specifically, over the Eastern half of Northern Eurasia (Siberia and the Russian Far East) statistically significant increases in indices that characterize the weather conditions conducive to forest fires were found. These areas coincide with the areas of most significant warming during the past several decades south of the Arctic Circle. West of the Ural Mountains, the same indices show a steady decrease in the frequency of “dry weather summer days” during the past 60 yr. This study is corroborated with available statistics of forest fires and with observed changes in drought statistics in agricultural regions of Northern Eurasia.
This paper describes a method to update maps of forest natural fire danger levels. It justifies an annual update on natural fire danger levels in regions with intensive forest management. Special attention is paid to the input data used: satellite-derived land cover maps, multiannual database on forest fires and Irkutsk Forest Inventory Plan database on natural forest fire danger levels. All processing steps of the method proposed are shown in detail. The routines to assign natural fire danger levels based in multiannual data are described. The paper also focuses on vegetation types' areas estimation on a quarter levels. It also describes the iterative search for analogues and the principle to find the dominant natural fire danger level. In conclusion the paper focuses on results obtained. The method was successfully used to create quarters database containing up-to-date information on natural forest fire danger levels. It also allowed to identify fire danger level for the quarters, which never had this kind of information in Forest Inventory. The results obtained are compared with data in Irkutsk Forest Inventory. Assimilation of high-resolution imagery is a possible way to further improve the method described.
Wildfires are one of the main disturbances that impact structure, sustainability, and carbon budget of Siberian forests, as well as infrastructure and human safety. The Zabaikal region in the south of Siberia is characterized by one of the highest levels of fire activity in Russia. We have estimated fire disturbances in the Zabaikal region using both a satellite fire dataset and official fire statistics. Both datasets show a trend of increasing fire activity in the region. According to the satellite fire dataset, from 1996 to 2015 total annual area burned in the Zabaikal region varied from 0.12 to 6.33 M ha with forest area burned accounting for 0.04–5.60 M ha. The highest fire activity was observed in the central and southern parts of the Zabaikal region. About 13% (3.88 M ha) of the total forest area in the Zabaikal region was burned more than once during the 20-yr period of observation, with many sites burned multiple times. Fire disturbance was highest in forests dominated by Scots pine. We have evaluated fire impact on fuel loads, carbon emissions, and tree regeneration on about 150 sites in the light-coniferous (larch or Scots pine dominated) forests of the region. Carbon emissions from fires on repeatedly burned areas were 3–50% of those from previously undisturbed sites. Regeneration density depended on site conditions and fire characteristics. Inadequate regeneration for forest recovery was observed in Scots pine stands on dry nutrient-poor soils as well as on repeatedly-disturbed sites. This regeneration failure is leading to transformation of forests to steppe ecosystems on some sites. We conclude that negative impacts of fire disturbance on forests of the Zabaikal region could be decreased through implementation of fire prevention measures with emphasis on education of local communities as well as construction and maintenance of a fuel break system, first of all, nearby settlements and tree plantations.
The dynamics of meteorological parameters in Siberia and the Altai–Sayan region in the 20th–21st centuries are analyzed. Significant trends characterizing the dynamics of the average temperature, precipitation, and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) are revealed. Growing wildfire frequency in the area under study since the end of the 20th century has been detected. The annual variation of wildfires has a phase coincidence with the dynamics of mean temperatures, positively correlates with climate dryness, and negatively correlates with averaged precipitation data. An abrupt increase in wildfire frequency has been observed in the late 20th–early 21st centuries. The spatial redistribution of wildfires in the Altai–Sayan region in the early 21st century is revealed.
Boreal forests constitute the world's largest terrestrial carbon pools. The main natural disturbance in these forests is wildfire, which modifies the carbon budget and atmosphere, directly and indirectly. Wildfire emissions in Russia contribute substantially to the global carbon cycle and have potentially important feedbacks to changing climate. Published estimates of carbon emissions from fires in Russian boreal forests vary greatly depending on the methods and data sets used. We examined various fire and vegetation products used to estimate wildfire emissions for Siberia. Large (up to fivefold) differences in annual and monthly area burned estimates for Siberia were found among four satellite-based fire data sets. Official Russian data were typically less than 10% of satellite estimates. Differences in the estimated proportion of annual burned area within each ecosystem were as much as 40% among five land-cover products. As a result, fuel consumption estimates would be expected to vary widely (3%–98%) depending on the specific vegetation mapping product used and as a function of weather conditions. Verification and validation of burned area and land-cover data sets along with the development of fuel maps and combustion models are essential for accurate Siberian wildfire emission estimates, which are central to balancing the carbon budget and assessing feedbacks to climate change.
Significant climatic changes over Northern Eurasia during the
20th century have been reflected in numerous variables of
economic, social, and ecological interests, including the natural
frequency of forest fires. For the former USSR, we are now using the
Global Daily Climatology Network (Gleason et al. 2002) and a new Global
Synoptic Data Network archive, GSDN, created jointly by NCDC an RIHMI.
Data from these archives are employed to estimate systematic changes in
indices used in the United States and Russia to assess potential forest
fire danger. Within the boundaries of the former USSR, each of the
archives, GHCN and GSDN, includes more than 2100 stations with only
approximately 1500 of them having sufficiently long meteorological time
series suitable for participation in our analyses. We use three
indices: (1) Keetch-Byram Drought Index, (KBDI; this index uses only
daily data on maximum temperature and precipitation and is developed and
widely used in the United States); (2) Modified Nesterov, and (3)
Zhdanko Indices (these indices are developed and widely used in Russia;
their computation requires synoptic daytime data on temperature and
humidity and daily precipitation and snow on the ground). Analyses show
that after calibration, time series of the days with increased potential
forest fire danger constructed using each of these three indices (a) are
well correlated and (b) deliver similar conclusions about systematic
changes in the weather conditions conducive to forest fires.
Specifically, over the entire Eastern half of Northern Eurasia (Siberia
and the Russian Far East) we found a statistically significant increase
in indices that characterize the weather conditions conducive to forest
fires. These areas coincide with the areas of most significant warming
during the past several decades south of the Arctic Circle. West of the
Ural Mountains, the same indices show a steady decrease in the frequency
of the "dry weather summer days" during the past sixty years. This
study supports and justifies our previous findings based on a data set
five-times smaller (Groisman et al. 2003) and is corroborated with
available statistics of forest fires (Korovin and Zukkert 2003) and with
observed changes in characteristics of the forest phenology (Lapenis et
al. 2004). Scenarios of the possible future climatic change in Northern
Eurasia (IPCC 2001) indicate that the changes will be most prominent in
the region. The superposition of these scenarios with the present
characteristics of the potential forest fire danger in the Eastern half
of Northern Eurasia, show that forest fires themselves may be an
important feedback mechanism affecting both the rate and magnitude of
the continental climatic changes. An unfortunate corollary is a need to
reassess the existing scenarios of future climatic change in Northern
Eurasia. These scenarios should include accounting for interactions
with the biosphere and its changes.
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