Article

Assessment of Fire Hazard and Its Dynamics in Forest Areas of Siberia

Authors:
  • ФБУ ВНИИЛМ "Центр лесной пирологии"
  • V.N. Sukachev Institute of Forest, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Krasnoyarsk
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Abstract

The existing methods for the assessment of fire hazard are analyzed. For the forest regions of Siberia, which are known for the highest indicators of fire hazard, data has been assembled on the degree of natural and weather-dependent fire hazard, as well as the hazard from a source of ignition. It is proposed to assess the natural fire hazard with allowance for the geographical-zonal and general inflammability features of the forest-site types and the forest regions of Siberia. The need to take into account the dynamics of fire hazard has been noted, especially after fire-hazard seasons characterized by an extreme degree of flammability. In remote areas, it is proposed to assess the dynamics of the natural fire hazard of territories based on the predicted state of forest ecosystems after the impact of fires. The proposed method has been tested on the territory of the Nizhneangarsk forest region, and a high reliability was found for the assessment of the postfire state of forest stands (in 87% of cases). The natural fire-hazard dynamics in the Kodinsky and Gremuchinsky forest districts of the Krasnoyarsk Territory have been analyzed based on the prediction of the forest-fire aftermath. The study has also revealed significantly increased areas of forest lands characterized by the first class of natural fire hazard after the impact of several large fires in 1996 and 2006 and an increase in fire-hazard class in some of the forestry units and on the territory of the Gremuchinsky forest district as a whole.

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