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Towards a Universally Applicable Neural State Estimation through Transfer Learning

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The transition of the power grid requires new technologies and methodologies, which can only be developed and tested in simulations. Especially larger simulation setups with many levels of detail can become quite slow. Therefore, the number of possible simulation evaluations decreases. One solution to overcome this issue is to use surrogate models, i. e., data-driven approximations of (sub)systems. In a recent work, we built a surrogate model for a low voltage grid using artificial neural networks, which achieved satisfying results. However, there were still open questions regarding the assumptions and simplifications made. In this paper, we present the results of our ongoing research, which answer some of these questions. We compare different machine learning algorithms as surrogate models and exchange the grid topology and size. In a set of experiments, we show that algorithms based on linear regression and artificial neural networks yield the best results independent of the grid topology. Furthermore, adding volatile energy generation and a variable phase angle does not decrease the quality of the surrogate models.
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Transfer learning is an emerging topic that may drive the success of machine learning in research and industry. The lack of data on specific tasks is one of the main reasons to use it, since collecting and labeling data can be very expensive and can take time, and recent concerns with privacy make difficult to use real data from users. The use of transfer learning helps to fast prototype new machine learning models using pretrained models from a source task since training on millions of images can take time and requires expensive GPUs. In this survey, we review the concepts and definitions related to transfer learning and we list the different terms used in the literature. We bring the point of view from different authors of prior surveys, adding some more recent findings in order to give a clear vision of directions for future work in this field of research.
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State estimation and power flow analysis are important tools for analysis, operation and planning of a power system. In this paper, a new state estimation method based on the extended weighted least squares (WLS) method for considering both measurement errors and model inaccuracy is presented. Two bus, three bus, and IEEE 14 bus test cases are employed to evaluate the accuracy of the method. The comparison results show that the extended WLS method may outperform traditional WLS approach when the model is not accurate. In addition, this paper investigates a method based on Z matrix to implement power flow in a transmission system with multiple types of loads (e.g. constant PQ, constant impedance and constant current magnitude loads or mixed loads). The load flow results demonstrate that the method is effective and easy to implement when composite load types exist in the system. Our studies also show that it may be possible that multiple solutions exist for a power flow problem.
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This paper addresses the problem of meter placement for distribution system state estimation (DSSE). The approach taken is to seek a set of meter locations that minimizes the probability that the peak value of the relative errors in voltage magnitudes and angle estimates across the network exceeds a specified threshold. The proposed technique is based on ordinal optimization and employs exact calculations of the probabilities involved, rather than estimates of these probabilities as used in our earlier work. The use of ordinal optimization leads to a decrease in computational effort without compromising the quality of the solution. The benefits of the approach in terms of reduced estimation errors is illustrated by simulations involving a 95-bus UKGDS distribution network model.
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With the increasing role of computational modeling in engineering design, performance estimation, and safety assessment, improved methods are needed for comparing computational results and experimental measurements. Traditional methods of graphically comparing computational and experimental results, though valuable, are essentially qualitative. Computable measures are needed that can quantitatively compare computational and experimental results over a range of input, or control, variables to sharpen assessment of computational accuracy. This type of measure has been recently referred to as a validation metric. We discuss various features that we believe should be incorporated in a validation metric, as well as features that we believe should be excluded. We develop a new validation metric that is based on the statistical concept of confidence intervals. Using this fundamental concept, we construct two specific metrics: one that requires interpolation of experimental data and one that requires regression (curve fitting) of experimental data. We apply the metrics to three example problems: thermal decomposition of a polyurethane foam, a turbulent buoyant plume of helium, and compressibility effects on the growth rate of a turbulent free-shear layer. We discuss how the present metrics are easily interpretable for assessing computational model accuracy, as well as the impact of experimental measurement uncertainty on the accuracy assessment.
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A major assumption in many machine learning and data mining algorithms is that the training and future data must be in the same feature space and have the same distribution. However, in many real-world applications, this assumption may not hold. For example, we sometimes have a classification task in one domain of interest, but we only have sufficient training data in another domain of interest, where the latter data may be in a different feature space or follow a different data distribution. In such cases, knowledge transfer, if done successfully, would greatly improve the performance of learning by avoiding much expensive data-labeling efforts. In recent years, transfer learning has emerged as a new learning framework to address this problem. This survey focuses on categorizing and reviewing the current progress on transfer learning for classification, regression, and clustering problems. In this survey, we discuss the relationship between transfer learning and other related machine learning techniques such as domain adaptation, multitask learning and sample selection bias, as well as covariate shift. We also explore some potential future issues in transfer learning research.
Conference Paper
The need for higher frequency in state estimation execution covering larger supervised networks has led to the investigation of faster and numerically more stable state estimation algorithms. However, technical developments in distributed energy management systems based on fast data communication networks open up the possibility of parallel or distributed state estimation implementation. In this paper, this possibility is exploited to derive a solution methodology based on conventional WLS distributed state estimation algorithms and an intelligent ANN technique. Numerical experiments show suitable performance of the proposed method with regard to estimation accuracy, convergence robustness and computational efficiency. The above methods are demonstrated with IEEE 37 bus distributed distribution system with comparison of simulated estimated outputs.
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Along with the large-scale implementation of distributed generators, the current distribution networks have changed gradually from passive to active operation. State estimation plays a vital role to facilitate this transition. In this paper, a suitable state estimation method for the active network design is proposed. The method takes advantages of the multi-agent system technology to compute iteratively local state variables by neighbors' data measurements. The accuracy and complexity of the proposed estimation are investigated through on-line simulation with a 5-bus test network.
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Recent developments in the solution methods for state estimation are reviewed. Concepts of decoupling, ill-conditioning and robustness in state estimation are discussed. Derivations of decoupled estimators, stable estimators and robust estimators are reviwed. Future directions for research are suggested.
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We discuss and compare measures of accuracy of univariate time series forecasts. The methods used in the M-competition as well as the W-competition, and many of the measures recommended by previous authors on this topic, are found to be degenerate in commonly occurring situations. Instead, we propose that the mean absolute scaled error become the standard measure for comparing forecast accuracy across multiple time series. (c) 2006 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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The problem of real-time estimation of the state of a power system is treated from the point of view of the theory of least-squares estimation (Kalman-Bucy filtering). Since under normal operating conditions, the power system behaves in a quasi- static manner, a simple model for the time behavior of the power system is derived. This model, together with the real-time measurement system, enables the design of a tracking state-estimator algorithm. The proposed algorithm has several advantages over the previously suggested static estimator algorithm in regard to its computational aspects, real-time implementation, and the accuracy of the estimated state.
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The ac power flow problem can be solved efficiently by Newton's method. Only five iterations, each equivalent to about seven of the widely used Gauss-Seidel method, are required for an exact solution. Problem dependent memory and time requirements vary approximately in direct proportion to problem size. Problems of 500 to 1000 nodes can be solved on computers with 32K core memory. The method, introduced in 1961, has been made practical by optimally ordered Gaussian elimination and special programming techniques. Equations, programming details, and examples of solutions of large problems are given.
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