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Challenges and opportunities for carbon neutrality in China
Abstract
China is currently the world’s largest emitter of carbon dioxide (CO2). China therefore has a key role in global climate change mitigation. Policies and commitments are required to enable decarbonization. In this Perspective, we summarize the key features of China’s CO2 emissions, its reduction processes and successes in meeting climate targets. China’s CO2 emissions reductions have been substantial: by 2020, carbon intensity decreased by 48.4% compared to 2005 levels, achieving objectives outlined in the Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions and Nationally Determined Contributions. These reductions rely on the achievements of sectoral and sub-national targets outlined by China’s Five-Year Plans. However, China still faces the challenges of reaching its peak total CO2 emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality before 2060. Key steps towards China’s carbon neutrality include increasing its non-fossil energy share, deploying negative-emission technologies at large scale, promoting regional low-carbon development and establishing a nationwide ‘green market’. To achieve these steps, top-down socio-economic development plans must coincide with bottom-up economic incentives and technology development.
... To align with this goal, in 2015, Chinese President Xi Jinping has announced its nationally determined contributions (INDCs), illustrating his commitment to implement stringent regulations and steps for achieving a peak in carbon emissions by 2030. Achieving a decrease in carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by approximately 60% to 65%, attaining around 20% of total energy consumption from non-fossil sources, and augmenting forest stock by about 4.5 billion cubic meters have been outlined as key objectives [2,3]. Subsequently, in December 2020, the president significantly heightened these National Determined Contributions (NDCs) during the Climate Ambition Summit. ...
... China's reliance on fossil fuels drives its energy consumption, resulting in suboptimal energy efficiency. When examining China's primary energy usage in comparison to the EU and the US, it becomes evident that China's energy consumption is markedly elevated, particularly in terms of coal usage, accounting for 57.64% of its overall energy consumption, in sharp contrast to the EU's 11.18% and the US's 11.98% [3]. Moreover, China's industrial and manufacturing sectors are key players in its economy, contributing to a notably high energy consumption per unit of GDP, surpassing the global average by 1.5 times [3]. ...
... When examining China's primary energy usage in comparison to the EU and the US, it becomes evident that China's energy consumption is markedly elevated, particularly in terms of coal usage, accounting for 57.64% of its overall energy consumption, in sharp contrast to the EU's 11.18% and the US's 11.98% [3]. Moreover, China's industrial and manufacturing sectors are key players in its economy, contributing to a notably high energy consumption per unit of GDP, surpassing the global average by 1.5 times [3]. This highlights the considerable challenge of bolstering energy efficiency and advancing initiatives for energy conservation and emission reduction, aligning with Chinas environmental objectives. ...
The This paper delves into Chinas ambitious pursuit of carbon neutrality by 2060, aligning with the Paris Agreements global climate objectives, while acknowledging its status as the largest greenhouse gas emitter. The comprehensive analysis explores Chinas evolving policies aimed at achieving carbon peaking and emission reduction within its industrial and manufacturing sectors, crucial contributors to its emissions profile. These policies emphasize a shift towards green and low-carbon practices, necessitating multifaceted transformations in industrial structure, energy consumption, and technological adoption. The paper underscores the intricate challenges posed by global economic dynamics, technological uncertainties, and potential social impacts in Chinas carbon neutrality journey, particularly in establishing effective carbon penalties that strike the right balance between emissions reduction and economic stability. To address these challenges, the paper offers strategic policy recommendations, including talent attraction, research promotion, ESG investing, clean technology investment, and international collaboration, emphasizing interdisciplinary approaches and knowledge-sharing. In conclusion, Chinas commitment to carbon neutrality signifies a significant stride towards global climate action, and while challenges persist, the nation's resolute policies and collaborative endeavors hold the promise of a transformative and sustainable future for both its economy and the global environment.
... Come in altri paesi, la Cina affronta il cambiamento climatico come un costante 'lavoro in corso'. Nel 2021, il paese ha annunciato l'obiettivo di raggiungere il picco delle emissioni di carbonio nel 2030 e la neutralità carbonica nel 2060, mentre gli scienziati cinesi continuano a riflettere sulle sfide e sulle opportunità del cambiamento climatico (Liu, et al., 2022). A differenza dell'Europa, per la Cina il raggiungimento del picco di carbonio rappresenta un obiettivo futuro, non una pietra miliare storica da cui guardare indietro. ...
... As with other countries, addressing climate change is always going to be a work in progress for China. In 2021, China announced its goal to achieve carbon peaking in 2030 and carbon neutrality in 2060, with Chinese scientists continuing to ponder the challenges and opportunities of climate change (Liu, et al., 2022). It is useful to note that, unlike Europe, carbon peaking for China is a goal to be achieved rather than a historical milestone to look back on. ...
... The USA set 2035 as a target for 100% clean electricity, with carbon neutrality no later than 2050 [5]. China, which is the largest CO 2 -emitting country in the world, intends to reach peak CO 2 emissions by 2030 and a carbon-free economy before 2060 [6]. The Australian government has also set the target of reducing the country's emissions, with the goal to attain 26-28% below 2005 levels by 2030, and to achieve net zero emissions by 2050 [7]. ...
... It tests for the overall shape of the distribution or the cumulative distribution function and is not only related to the measure of tendency, a measure of dispersion, although the measures also affect the overall shape of the distribution. The KSI can be represented by Eq. (6) and encompasses taking the integral of the maximum absolute difference between the two cumulative distribution functions (the measured time series data and the synthetic time series data) over the extreme values of the independent variable: ...
Bottom-up energy system models are often based on hourly time steps due to limited computational tractability or data availability. However, in order to properly assess the rentability and reliability of energy systems by accounting for the intermittent nature of renewable energy sources, a higher level of detail is necessary. This study reviews different methods for increasing the temporal resolutions of time series data for global horizontal and direct normal irradiance for solar energy, and wind speed for wind energy. The review shows that stochastic
methods utilizing random sampling and non-dimensional approaches are the most frequently employed for solar irradiance data downscaling. The non-dimensional approach is particularly simple, with global applicability and a robust methodology with good validation scores. The temporal increment of wind speed, however, is challenging due to its spatiotemporal complexity and variance, especially for accurate wind distribution profiles. Recently, researchers have mostly considered methods that draw on the combination of meteorological reanalysis and stochastic fluctuations, which are more accurate than the simple and conventional interpolation
methods. This review provides a road map of how to approach solar and wind speed temporal downscaling methods and quantify their effectiveness. Furthermore, potential future research areas in solar and wind data downscaling are also highlighted.
... China has witnessed rapid and sustained economic progress during the past three decades and recently ranked second only to the US when listing the world's largest economy [14,15]. Furthermore, China is now the leading emitter of carbon dioxide and energy generators in the world [16]. No doubt, China plays a crucial part in the process of mitigating global climate change. ...
Global climate change has a significant negative impact on both sustainable development and the stability of international relations in the world. Global climate change affects both international relations and sustainable environmental policies to varying degrees. However, currently, most studies focus on analyzing the impact of climate change on the global environment from the perspectives of economic development and food security, and there is no discussion of the linkages between climate change, sustainable environmental policies, and international relations, so this study will analyze the sustainable development issues and international relations in terms of the impact of climate change on China by using realism theory and Liberalism theory. This study shows that climate change, environmental security planning, and international relations are interactive. A rational and valid environmental security planning mitigates the effects of climate change to a certain extent, while the implementation process of security planning contributes to the harmonious development of international relations.
... Reservoir operation as one of the most effective measures, plays a vital role in drought defense and disaster mitigation in watersheds [5,6]. Besides, the Chinese Government has pledged to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality by 2060 to fight climate change [7,8]. Hydroelectricity, as a green and clean energy, can promote the development and utilization of renewable energy and make outstanding contributions to the realization of carbon neutrality and the Sustainable Development Goals formulated by the United Nations in 2015 [9][10][11][12]. ...
The seasonal operation of drought-limited water level (DLWL) can efficiently boost the synergies of hydropower production and drought defense. For the first time, this study proposes a seasonal DLWL operation framework for mimicking reservoir drawdown operation to improve hydropower output and mitigate drought risk. Firstly, three statistical analysis methods were used to divide the drought season into three segments. And then, the simulation model of seasonal DLWL operation was configured to evaluate the effect of reservoir drawdown operation on risk and benefits. Lastly, the combined distance-based assessment method was employed to identify the best scheme of seasonal DLWL operation. The Three Gorges Reservoir sited in the Yangtze River of China constitutes the case study. The results suggested that the proposed framework could facilitate reservoir drawdown operation to achieve 2346.95 million kW·h (7.0% improvement) in hydroelectricity production and 3.3% in utilization efficiency of water resources, while could reduce 7.4% in drought risk. This study not only can provide scientific and technical support for reservoir drawdown operation benefiting synergies of hydropower generation and drought defense but also can suggest policymakers with various favorable strategies to experience potential risks and benefits of seasonal DLWL operation in the interest of sustainable hydropower development.
... China's energy grid must eliminate 85% of fossil fuel use within 30 years if it is to reach its objective of carbon neutrality. 67 The economy and the environment are already being impacted by climate change and will be at greater risk if investments in fossil fuels continue to rise. 2023 is a milestone year for both stocktaking and outlooks. ...
With growing health risks from climate change and a trend of increasing carbon emissions from coal, it is time for China to take action. The rising frequency and severity of extreme weather events in China, such as record-high temperatures, low rainfall, severe droughts, and floods in many regions (along with the compound and ripple effects of these events on human health) have underlined the urgent need for health-centred climate action. The rebound in the country's coal consumption observed in 2022 reflected the great challenge faced by China in terms of its coal phase-down, overriding the country's gains in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Timely and adequate responses will not only reduce or avoid the impacts of climate-related health hazards but can also protect essential infrastructures from disruptions caused by extreme weather. Health and climate change are inextricably linked, necessitating a high prioritisation of health in adaptation and mitigation efforts. The 2023 China report of the Lancet Countdown continues to track progress on health and climate change in China, while now also attributing the health risks of climate change to human activities and providing examples of feasible and effective climate solutions. This fourth iteration of the China report was spearheaded by the Lancet Countdown regional centre in Asia, based at Tsinghua University in Beijing, China. Progress is monitored across 28 indicators in five domains: from climate change impacts, exposures, and vulnerability (section 1); to the different elements of action, including adaption (section 2) and mitigation, and their health implications (section 3); to economics and finance (section 4); and public and political engagement (section 5). This report was compiled with the contribution of 76 experts from 26 institutions both within and outside of China. The impending global stocktake at the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change 28th Conference of the Parties (COP28), the UN initiative on early warning systems (which pledged to ensure the world was protected by the end of 2027), and China's action plans to reduce air pollutants and GHGs illustrate that global climate action has moved from talk to concrete plans. These initiatives could deliver major health benefits, but none of them explicitly list health as a policy target or indicator. The results of the global stocktake could guide health-focused and feasible interventions. The first Health Day and climate-health ministerial meeting that will be hosted at COP28 underline the trend to mainstream health in the global climate change agenda. Health risks arising from human-induced climate change, and production-based and consumption-based CO 2 and ambient parti culate matter (PM 2·5) emissions (indicator 4.2.4) indicate the urgent need for mitigation by identifying human contributions to carbon emissions and climate change. Early warning systems for health risks (indicator 2.4) and the city-level human comfort index provide bottom-up examples of adaptation practices.
... A significant factor in the acceleration of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions is global warming. [1][2][3][4][5][6] Car-bon neutrality technology, which primarily consists of CO 2 capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS), 7 is being suggested as a solution to these problems and is a promising technology to achieve the CO 2 emission reduction targets. They primarily consist of three distinct processes: removing CO 2 from the emission sources, converting and using CO 2 , and moving and storing THE BIGGER PICTURE The escalation of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions has become a major contributor to global warming. ...
... As the world's largest carbon emitter [3], China began exploring the carbon market's construction in 2013 and launched pilot projects in seven cities [4]. Up to now, China has established an institutional framework for quota allocation, data management, transaction supervision, law enforcement inspection, and support platforms [5][6][7][8]. ...
Individual carbon accounting and trading is significant for building and achieving low-/zero-carbon university campuses. This manuscript examines various aspects of individual carbon trading on campus, such as assessing personal carbon emissions, students’ willingness to participate in individual carbon trading on campus, and its influencing factors, policy setting, and emission reduction benefits. Based on the Theory of Planned Behavior, this manuscript uses the conditional process analysis method and conducts a questionnaire survey on a university campus in Beijing to evaluate individuals’ carbon emissions on campus and explore their willingness to trade personal carbon. Moreover, a system dynamics approach is adopted to propose a simulation model of individual carbon trading on the campus and assess its feasibility and emission reduction benefits. The results indicate an average annual emission reduction of 8.18% per person, providing a theoretical foundation to implement and promote the individual carbon trading pilot on campus. These findings highlight the potential benefits of individual carbon trading policies that may effectively reduce carbon emissions on university campuses.
... The topic of climate change has become a prominent concern among decision-makers and authorities. This phenomenon has resulted in a significant body of empirical study that is based on the mechanisms via which human-induced carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are transferred (Deng et al., 2022;Shan et al., 2022). The literature is classified into subcategories in the following manner. ...
This study examines the impact of renewable energy consumption, energy use, gross domestic product, foreign direct investment, and remittances on carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) in a panel consisting of the four most remittance-rich nations in Southeast Asia over the period from 1990 to 2023. The stationarity test of the variables is assessed by applying the Levin penal unit root test. All the considered variables possess stationarity at their first difference. The Pedroni cointegration test results endorse a long-term relationship between energy use, remittances, financial development, consumption of renewable energy, and CO2 emissions. The long-run and short-run effects of the considered variables on CO2 emissions are analyzed employing dynamic simulated ARDL models. The error correction model (ECM) further supports the long-term association between CO2 emissions, remittances, energy use, economic growth, and renewable energy consumption. According to the study's findings, environmental degradation issues should be the subject of policy, as they significantly raise a nation's CO2 emissions. Regardless of other energy sources, renewable energy lowers CO2 emissions because it does not harm the environment. It is advised that laws pertaining to inflows of overseas remittances be improved and promoted.
... Accordingly, the energy sector is mobilized to build photovoltaic (PV) infrastructure under the overarching poverty alleviation program (Fig. 2). Indeed, such efforts are closely aligned with China's recent commitment to a carbon peak before 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060 (Liu et al. 2022). ...
Scholarship at the intersection of agrarian studies and climate change has made substantial contributions toward a deeper understanding of how climate and environmental changes shape and are shaped by the rural world. We call for placing sustainability at the core of future analyses of ongoing agrarian transitions to strengthen more systematic investigations of their relationship with broader social and climate changes. The new focus on sustainability—both to investigate causes and assess outcomes—will fundamentally influence how agrarian studies scholarship seeks to understand the relationship of climate change with agrarian transformations. Through an assessment of three examples of agrarian transitions, driven by state, non-government organizations, and capital-intensive development projects, we highlight the “wicked” sustainability challenges threatening the wellbeing of rural populations and of ecosystems that sustain rural livelihoods. We conclude that incorporating a sustainability governance framework into critical agrarian studies facilitates understanding and action toward sustainable transformations in the rural world.
... The achievement of carbon neutrality requires a comprehensive and systematic analysis of technology, economics, and society. 51 Carbon emissions projections provide different pathways for energy consumption among sectors in China, and can also serve as a reference for policymakers to formulate carbon reduction plans. 44,52,53 Based on the findings of this study, we make recommendations targeting both energy consumption and power generation. ...
To achieve its goal of carbon emissions peak and neutrality, China requires synergistic efforts across all sectors. In this study, three scenarios—baseline, policy, and green low-carbon—were developed to explore the pathways for China’s emissions reduction across sectors from 2020 to 2060, and the timing of decoupling economic growth from CO2. The results showed that, under these scenarios, China’s carbon emissions peak in 2030, 2026, and 2025, with strong decoupling time, lagged one year behind peak attainment. The agriculture, forestry, livestock, and fishing (AFH) and mining and quarrying (MQ) sectors would be the first to achieve a carbon peak. Under all three scenarios, all of the other sectors—with the exception of electricity, gas, and water production and supply (EGW)—will achieve a carbon peak by 2030. Therefore, policymakers should set carbon peak goals based on sector characteristics and ensure energy security in the process of achieving carbon neutrality.
... Achieving carbon neutrality is the global consensus to combat climate change. For instance, China has announced its commitment to achieving this goal by 2050 [1]. As one of the clean energy resources, variable renewable energy (VRE) will contribute significantly to this target [2]. ...
Large-scale grid integration of variable renewable energy is crucial for achieving decarbonized development. However, this integration requires frequent regulation of flexible power sources for complementary operation, which can lead to wear-and-tear and fatigue damage to key components. This poses potential risks to flexible power sources. Existing studies have primarily focused on limiting unit startups, while have neglected the risk of frequent power regulation. Thus, this work proposes a risk-averse short-term scheduling method for a Wind-Solar-Cascade hydro-Thermal-Pumped storage hybrid energy system to balance frequent regulation risk, cost, and carbon emission: (1) a risk-averse short-term scheduling model is proposed, considering multilayer constraints ; (2) a multi-objective hybrid African vulture optimization algorithm is proposed to effectively solve the scheduling problem including continuous and discrete variables. A case study in the Songhua River basin, China shows that: (1) compared with traditional models, the proposed model reduces the risk by 31.4% and enhances the comprehensive performance in balancing the three objectives by 22.4%; (2) the proposed algorithm performs robustness and search capability advantages, with improvements of 33.01% and 21.44% respectively, in solving the problem of challenging constraints and mixed decision variables. Overall, this work contributes to enhancing the management of large hybrid energy systems.
... The issue of global warming has become one of the world's most pressing concerns. High emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) are thought to be the main driver of global climate change [1,2]. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology is a necessary technical means to achieve CO 2 emission reduction targets, and the key to CCS lies in the development of high-performance CO 2 adsorbents [3,4]. ...
Metal-organic polyhedra (MOP) have received considerable attention owing to their high porosity, customizable functionality, controlled porous structure, and good chemical stability. They have promising applications in capturing carbon generated from fossil fuel combustion. However, the skeleton structure of MOP is prone to collapse at high temperatures. During the activation process, it is simple to agglomerate and block the pores, which significantly weakens their capacity and selectivity in CO 2 adsorption. In this work, an effective strategy was developed to overcome these obstacles by uniformly dispersing MOP on the surface of layered double hy-droxide nanosheets (LDHNS). The synergistic effect of microwave is utilized to obtain LDHNS/Zr-MOP-NH 2 composites with uniform size and particle dispersion within 10 min. This method enhances experimental efficiency and radically reduces reaction time. Overall, LDHNS/Zr-MOP-NH 2 shows notably better CO 2 capacity, selectivity, and cycle ability, and also exhibits improved thermal stability than the original Zr-MOP-NH 2. As far as we know, this is the first report on the use of MOP in combination with LDH for CO 2 storage, which will bring new insights into the field. It is important to note that this method can be employed for other porous materials, enabling not only the reduction of carbon emissions, but also the rational utilization of mineral resources.
... To mitigate the negative impacts of global climate change and address the issues of the energy crisis, many countries have established ambitious goals aimed at reducing the carbon emissions and increasing the deployment of renewable energy sources in their energy mix [1,2]. To this end, integrating intermittent renewable energies, such as solar and wind energies, into the grid has become a crucial challenge [3,4]. ...
To achieve carbon neutrality, integrating intermittent renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind energy, necessitates the use of large-scale energy storage. Among various emerging energy storage technologies, redox flow batteries are particularly promising due to their good safety, scalability, and long cycle life. In order to meet the ever-growing market demand, it is essential to enhance the power density of battery stacks to lower the capital cost. One of the key components that impact the battery performance is the flow field, which is to distribute electrolytes onto electrodes. The design principle of flow fields is to maximize the distribution uniformity of electrolytes at a minimum pumping work. This review provides an overview of the progress and perspectives in flow field design and optimization, with an emphasis on the scale-up process. The methods used to evaluate the performance of flow fields, including both experimental and numerical techniques, are summarized, and the benefits of combining diverse methods are highlighted. The review then investigates the pattern design and structure optimization of serpentine- and interdigitated-based flow fields before discussing challenges and strategies for scaling up these flow fields. Finally, the remaining challenges and the prospects for designing highly efficient flow fields for battery stacks are outlined.
... Carbon neutrality is a state of net-zero CO 2 emissions achieved by balancing CO 2 emissions with their removal (Wikipedia, 2022). The four primary pathways to carbon neutrality are as follows (Liu et al., 2022;Wu et al., 2022): (1) the efficiency improvement pathway, which involves lowering energy consumption and increasing energy utilization efficiency; (2) the energy transformation pathway, which refers to deep decarbonization of the energy system through energy structure transformation and renewable energy utilization; (3) the carbon capture, usage and storage (CCUS) pathway, which can capture and make effective use of the high concentrations of CO₂ emitted by industrial activities; and (4) the ecological pathway, which refers to carbon sequestration achieved by terrestrial ecosystems. ...
This study defines Provincial Carbon Emission Characteristics (PCEC) as the socioeconomic conditions influencing provincial carbon emissions, the potential for carbon neutrality, and carbon management strategies. Given China's commitment to peak carbon emissions and to achieve carbon neutrality, the development of a robust and versatile PCEC evaluation system is imperative. However, previous studies that rely on single-objective evaluation models are limited. To address this gap, we propose a multi-objective PCEC evaluation system using a novel three-layer approach. This approach enhances the scientific rigor, comprehensiveness, and comparability of PCEC evaluation indicators (PCEC-EIs) by segregating the extraction process into three layers: (1) a factor layer, which identifies critical socioeconomic conditions; (2) a quantitative layer, which selects optimal quantitative indicators for each identified condition; and (3) a standardized layer, which standardizes these indicators, thereby improving their comparability. By applying hierarchical cluster analysis, our study classified 30 Chinese provinces into 7 distinct clusters, each with unique carbon emission characteristics. Further investigation of these clusters across various climate governance issues revealed the versatility of our multi-objective PCEC evaluation system. Our system supports the identification of provinces qualified to reach the emission peak earlier than 2030, differentiation of carbon intensity reduction efforts during the carbon peaking stage, and exploration of various emission reduction pathways to achieve carbon neutrality. Hence, our findings can guide the creation of bespoke emission-reduction strategies for each province; thus, aiding China's national ambition to achieve peak carbon emissions and carbon neutrality. Importantly, our three-layered approach has broader implications beyond China, potentially assisting other regions or countries in grappling with similar climate-mitigation challenges.
... Conventional power plants such as steam engines, steam turbines, and nuclear power plants use fossil fuels such as natural gas and coal, which are non-renewable resources. The reference scenario predicts that between 2002 and 2030, the world's primary energy demand will increase by around 60%, equal to 1.7% annually [1]. As opposed to the 10.3 billion tons of oil equivalents (toe) of demand in 2002, there will be a total of 16.5 billion toe in 2030. ...
Afforestation has been considered a critical nature-based solution to mitigate global warming. China has announced an ambitious afforestation plan covering an area of 73.78×104 km2 from 2020 to 2050. However, it is unclear where it will be suitable for afforestation under future climate change. Here, we carried out a finer resolution (25 by 25 km) of climate change dynamic downscaling for China using the WRF model nested with bias-corrected MPI–ESM1–2–HR model; then, using the Holdridge life zone model forced by the WRF model output, we mapped the climatological suitability for forest in China. The results showed that the potential forestation domain (PFD) at present (1995–2014) approximated 500.75×104 km2, and it would increase to 518.25×104 km2, by about 3.49 %, to the period of 2041–2060 under the SSP2–4.5 scenario. Considering the expansion of the future PFD caused by climate change, the afforestation area for each province was allocated into grid cells following the climatological suitability for the forest. The newly afforestation grid cells would occur around and to the east of the Hu Line. Due to afforestation, the land cover would be modified. The conversion of grasslands to deciduous broadleaf forests in northern China covered most area, accounting for 41 % of the newly afforestation area. The grid cell-resolved afforestation dataset was consistent with the provincial afforestation plan and the future climatological forest suitability. It would be valuable for investigating the impacts of future afforestation on various aspects, including the carbon budget, ecosystem services, water resources, and surface climate.
This research paper critically examines Chinas role as the worlds largest emitter of carbon dioxide and its pivotal position in global climate change mitigation efforts. The analysis encompasses Chinas environmental policies initiated since 1979, formally approved by the legislative body, the NPC, in 1989. Though significant economic developments were made since the countrys reform and opening in 1979, it is acknowledged that this progress has been accompanied by substantial environmental degradation. In response, the government amended environmental laws in 2014, reflecting a commitment to address these challenges. However, this paper contends that substantial efforts are still required to achieve meaningful environmental improvement. The research further delves into the anticipated impacts of Chinese policies on crucial aspects, namely Climate Change, Resource Management, and the well-being of Future Generations, providing comprehensive insights into the multifaceted implications of Chinas environmental trajectory.
This chapter examines China's economic development in detail, focusing on the role that digital transformation, energy efficiency, and climate change have played. How digital technologies are driving China's economy and the difficulties local governments have in adapting to these changes are explored. China's response to the global energy crisis is analyzed, and the implications of energy transitions on the country's development are laid out in depth. The effects of climate change on the Chinese economy and the country's efforts to adapt to these changes are examined empirically. Nutrition is examined for its impact on a country's economy, namely its productivity and literacy rates. This chapter adds to the literature on economic growth and policy by providing fresh perspectives on China's complex economic rise.
Carbon dioxide (CO 2) is the primary greenhouse gas, with annual emissions reaching up to 54 billion tons globally, leading to an unprecedented acceleration of global warming. In conjunction with carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS), which represents the most advanced and efficient technology for energy conservation and emission reduction, as well as the innovative concept of CO 2 storage in salt caverns, this paper investigates the industrial application potential of supercritical CO 2. Herein the feasibility of large-scale storage of supercritical CO 2 in salt caverns was investigated, focusing on the stability aspect associated with such storage. Specifically concentrating on the impact of upper and lower injection/production pressures and frequencies on the stability of carbon storage in salt caverns, this study utilizes numerical simulation methods to simulate the creep process that occurs in China's bedded salt formations. Numerical simulation results showed that: 1) From the perspective of salt cavern stability, the volume shrinkage, creep and damage degree of surrounding rock during operation all fall within an acceptable range. Consequently, it is feasible to implement carbon storage in these salt caverns for a during of 100 years. 2) Shortening the range of internal pressure will enhance the stability of salt cavern for carbon storage. Furthermore, different pressure intervals have an impact on the creep concentration position within the cavern, primarily resulting in a transformation between internal contraction of surrounding rock and sediment accumulation caused by floor creep by altering the lower pressure limit. 3) The injection and production frequency of salt cavern carbon storage (SCCS) is characterized by a low occurrence rate (< 10 cycles). The stability of the cavern can be enhanced by increasing the injection and production frequency, nevertheless, it is important to note that internal pressure remains the primary factor influencing cavern stability compared to the injection and production frequency.
Environmental policy formulation, implementation, and evaluation represent crucial steps in striking a harmonious balance between the economy and the environment. Market-oriented green bonds have emerged as a notable instrument within environmental policy expression. In China, the adoption of green bonds reflects a shared commitment to dual carbon objectives and sustainable development, with both the government and the populace actively engaged. Drawing on theories of green management (GM) and technological innovation within environmental protection enterprises, this study formulates two hypotheses and analyzes a dataset comprising 1024 annual samples from 252 listed companies. This research explores the impact and underlying mechanisms of green bonds on GM and technological innovation within environmental protection enterprises. The findings reveal distinct patterns in the influence of green bonds issued before and after 2017. Specifically, for green bonds issued before 2017, the study identifies a significant, albeit negative, relationship at the 1% significance level between bond issuance and technological innovation (−0.032). The environmental performance value associated with the enterprise’s green strategy shows a notable negative correlation (−0.251), while enterprise value exhibits a positive relationship (0.155). Conversely, green bonds issued after 2017 exhibit a markedly different dynamic. The study detects a highly significant positive association between bond issuance and technological innovation at the 1% significance level (1.322). Furthermore, the environmental performance value linked to the enterprise’s green strategy demonstrates a substantial positive correlation (1.467), and enterprise value experiences a substantial increase (3.268). These findings underscore the pivotal role of green bond financing in significantly enhancing the technological innovation capabilities of environmental protection enterprises, particularly in the post-2017 period.
Land use planning has the potential to diminish carbon storages and exacerbate carbon emissions, and therefore improving its contribution to achieve carbon neutrality should be a priority. In this study, we proposed an integrated framework to reveal the interrelation between land use and carbon neutrality. We employed the Linear Programming Model (LPM), Markov, Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS), emission coefficients and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) to predict land use patterns in Hainan Island, China and assessed the potential for reducing carbon emissions and increasing carbon storages under four scenarios: natural development (ND), spatial planning (SP), low-carbon emission (LE), and high-carbon storage (HS) by 2035. The results demonstrate that the new Territory Spatial Planning in 2035 can effectively reduce carbon emissions and increase carbon sinks. Specifically, compared to the ND scenario, carbon emissions will decrease by 5.37 % and carbon storages increase by 0.11 % in the SP scenario. Furthermore, the optimized land use patterns in the low-carbon scenarios will result in a greater reduction in carbon emissions and a larger increase in carbon sinks than the SP scenario. Specifically, compared to the SP scenario, carbon emissions will decrease by 11.83 % in the LE scenario, and carbon storages increase by 4.81 % in the HS scenario. Through the integration of planning and carbon neutrality via land use optimization, this study broadened the theoretical analysis framework and deepened our comprehension of the relationship between land use and carbon neutrality. Moreover, the insights derived from our findings offer valuable information to policymakers on carbon neutrality policy-making and land use planning in Hainan and other regions facing the similar challenges.
Incorporating wind energy on a large scale into power systems presents challenges for the operation and control of the grid. To enhance the safety of power grid operation, accurate short-term forecasting of wind power is necessary, as it minimizes the impact of randomness. Considering the uncertainty and prediction issues associated with wind power, this paper introduces a CNN–GRU ultra-short-term wind power prediction model. This model relies on multichannel signals, including data such as wind speed, wind direction, climate conditions, and historical power outputs collected from wind farms. These data types contribute to the formation of a comprehensive multichannel signal for wind power. Following that, the CNN method extracts both global and partial features from these signals. Concurrently, features are extracted from past power outputs based on their time series. These features are then combined with the ones obtained from the convolution process. Subsequently, these combined features are input into a fully connected network. This step is crucial for blending multichannel information and generating forecast results. To validate the model, it was tested using data from a wind farm located in a specific region of Sichuan Province. According to our experimental results, the model demonstrates a high level of accuracy in computation and robust generalization ability.
div class="section abstract"> The Chinese government and industries have proposed strategic plans and policies for automotive renewable-energy transformation in response to China’s commitments to peak the national carbon emissions before 2030 and to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. We thus analyze the evolution of carbon emissions from the vehicle fleet in China with our data-driven models based on these plans. Our results indicate that the vehicle life-cycle carbon emissions are appreciable, accounting for 8.9% of the national total and 11.3% of energy combustion in 2020. Commercial vehicles are the primary source of automotive carbon emissions, accounting for about 60% of the vehicle energy cycle. Among these, heavy-duty trucks are the most important, producing 38.99% of the total carbon emissions in the vehicle operation stage in 2020 and 52.18% in 2035. On the other hand, carbon emissions from vehicle assembly and power battery manufacturing processes keep about 10% of the vehicle life-cycle total due mainly to the cleaner and cleaner grid electricity. Furthermore, although carbon emissions from vehicle operation will peak in 2028, meeting the government’s carbon-peak goal, those from the energy cycle and life cycle will continue to increase until 2035, missing that goal. We further characterize the carbon emissions projections for the future, and the results indicate that deploying carbon-free hydrogen energy vigorously, particularly in heavy-duty trucks, could help achieve vehicle net-zero carbon emissions by 2060.
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The nexus between the corporate experiences of local officials and their proclivity for fostering economic growth has long been acknowledged. This study delves into a critical inquiry arising from this connection: does the background in enterprise predispose local officials to prioritize economic development at the expense of green initiatives? Leveraging a dataset spanning 1998 to 2019 and encompassing provincial governors and party secretaries across 30 Chinese provinces, we empirically explore the impact of local officials' corporate careers on regional carbon emissions. Our findings underscore a significant association between the antecedent corporate backgrounds of local officials and heightened carbon emissions within their administered regions. The magnitude of this influence varies, contingent on factors such as the nature of their prior corporate affiliations, promotion incentives, interregional transfers, tenure in office, and the energy resources and economic development context of their jurisdictions. Moreover, our analysis reveals a nuanced dynamic: as the top-down "performance orientation" shifts from an exclusive emphasis on economic development to a dual focus on both economic and environmental considerations, local officials' corporate backgrounds emerge as a mitigating factor, reducing the intensity of carbon emissions in their regions. Further mechanism testing discerns a distinct dual impact of local officials with corporate backgrounds. In the realm of environmental performance, there is a marked reduction in environmental investments within their jurisdiction during their tenure. Simultaneously, within the sphere of economic performance, these officials exhibit a significant upswing in the proliferation of "large-scale industrial enterprises, foreign investment, and public expenditure," emblematic of heightened carbon emissions. This research not only provides insights into the persistent challenge of China's historically elevated carbon emissions from the perspective of local officials but also offers valuable references for government governance structures aiming to achieve the objectives of "dual carbon" targets.
Because of the alkaline nature and high calcium content of cements in general, they serve as a CO 2-absorbing agent through carbonation processes, resembling silicate weathering in nature. This carbon uptake capacity of cements could abate some of the CO 2 emitted during their production. Given the scale of cement production worldwide (4.10 Gt in 2019), a life-cycle assessment is necessary to determine the actual net carbon impacts of this industry. We adopted a comprehensive analytical model to estimate the amount of CO 2 that had been absorbed from 1930 to 2019 in four types of cement materials, including concrete, mortar, construction waste, and cement kiln dust (CKD). In addition, the process CO 2 emission during the same period based on the same datasets was also estimated. The results show that 21.02 Gt CO 2 (95 % confidence interval, CI: 18.01-24.41 Gt CO 2) had been absorbed in the cements produced from 1930 to 2019, with the 2019 annual figure mounting up to 0.89 Gt CO 2 yr −1 (95 % CI: 0.76-1.06 Gt CO 2). The cumulative uptake is equivalent to approximately 55 % of the process emission based on our estimation. In particular, China's dominant position in cement production or consumption in recent decades also gives rise to its uptake being the greatest, with a cumulative sink of 6.21 Gt CO 2 (95 % CI: 4.59-8.32 Gt CO 2) since 1930. Among the four types of cement materials, mortar is estimated to be the greatest contributor (approximately 59 %) to the total uptake. Potentially, our cement emission and uptake estimation system can be updated annually and modified when necessary for future low-carbon transitions in the cement industry. All the data described in this study, including the Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis results, are accessible at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4459729 (Wang et al., 2021).
Global- and national-scale inventories of carbon dioxide
(CO2) emissions are important tools as countries grapple with the need
to reduce emissions to minimize the magnitude of changes in the global
climate system. The longest time series dataset on global and national
CO2 emissions, with consistency over all countries and all years since
1751, has long been the dataset generated by the Carbon Dioxide Information
and Analysis Center (CDIAC), formerly housed at Oak Ridge National
Laboratory. The CDIAC dataset estimates emissions from fossil fuel
combustion and cement manufacture, by fuel type, using the United Nations
energy statistics and global cement production data from the United States
Geological Survey. Recently, the maintenance of the CDIAC dataset was
transferred to Appalachian State University, and the dataset is now
identified as CDIAC-FF. This paper describes the annual update of the time
series of emissions with estimates through 2017; there is typically a 2- to 3-year time lag in the processing of the two primary datasets used for the
estimation of CO2 emissions. We provide details on two changes to the
approach to calculating CO2 emissions that have been implemented in the transition from CDIAC to CDIAC-FF: refinement in the treatment of changes in
stocks at the global level and changes in the procedure to calculate
CO2 emissions from cement manufacture. We compare CDIAC-FF's estimates
of CO2 emissions with other global and national datasets and
illustrate the trends in emissions (1990–2015) using a decomposition
analysis of the Kaya identity. The decompositions for the top 10 emitting
countries show that, although similarities exist, countries have unique
factors driving their patterns of emissions, suggesting the need for diverse
strategies to mitigate carbon emissions to meditate anthropogenic climate
change. The data for this particular version of CDIAC-FF are available at
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4281271 (Gilfillan et al., 2020a).
Direct air capture (DAC) can provide an impactful, engineered approach to combat climate change by removing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from the air. However, to meet climate goals, DAC needs to be scaled at a rapid rate. Current DAC approaches use engineered contactors filled with chemicals to repeatedly capture CO 2 from the air and release high purity CO 2 that can be stored or otherwise used. This review article focuses on two distinctive, commercial DAC processes to bind with CO 2 : solid sorbents and liquid solvents. We discuss the properties of solvents and sorbents, including mass transfer, heat transfer and chemical kinetics, as well as how these properties influence the design and cost of the DAC process. Further, we provide a novel overview of the considerations for deploying these DAC technologies, including concepts for learning-by-doing that may drive down costs and material requirements for scaling up DAC technologies.
More than half of current coal power capacity is in China. A key strategy for meeting China’s 2060 carbon neutrality goal and the global 1.5 °C climate goal is to rapidly shift away from unabated coal use. Here we detail how to structure a high-ambition coal phaseout in China while balancing multiple national needs. We evaluate the 1037 currently operating coal plants based on comprehensive technical, economic and environmental criteria and develop a metric for prioritizing plants for early retirement. We find that 18% of plants consistently score poorly across all three criteria and are thus low-hanging fruits for rapid retirement. We develop plant-by-plant phaseout strategies for each province by combining our retirement algorithm with an integrated assessment model. With rapid retirement of the low-hanging fruits, other existing plants can operate with a 20- or 30-year minimum lifetime and gradually reduced utilization to achieve the 1.5 °C or well-below 2 °C climate goals, respectively, with complete phaseout by 2045 and 2055.
Drylands are an essential component of the Earth System and are among the most vulnerable to climate change. In this Review, we synthesize observational and modelling evidence to demonstrate emerging differences in dryland aridity dependent on the specific metric considered. Although warming heightens vapour pressure deficit and, thus, atmospheric demand for water in both the observations and the projections, these changes do not wholly propagate to exacerbate soil moisture and runoff deficits. Moreover, counter- intuitively, many arid ecosystems have exhibited significant greening and enhanced vegetation productivity since the 1980s. Such divergence between atmospheric and ecohydrological aridity changes can primarily be related to moisture limitations by dry soils and plant physiological regulations of evapotranspiration under elevated CO2. The latter process ameliorates water stress on plant growth and decelerates warming- enhanced water losses from soils, while simultaneously warming and drying the near- surface air. We place these climate- induced aridity changes in the context of exacerbated water scarcity driven by rapidly increasing anthropogenic needs for freshwater to support population growth and economic development. Under future warming, dryland ecosystems might respond non- linearly, caused by, for example, complex ecosystem–hydrology–human interactions and increased mortality risks from drought and heat stress, which is a foremost priority for future research.
Though highly motivated to slow the climate crisis, governments may struggle to impose costly polices on entrenched interest groups, resulting in a greater need for negative emissions. Here, we model wartime-like crash deployment of direct air capture (DAC) as a policy response to the climate crisis, calculating funding, net CO2 removal, and climate impacts. An emergency DAC program, with investment of 1.2–1.9% of global GDP annually, removes 2.2–2.3 GtCO2 yr–1 in 2050, 13–20 GtCO2 yr–1 in 2075, and 570–840 GtCO2 cumulatively over 2025–2100. Compared to a future in which policy efforts to control emissions follow current trends (SSP2-4.5), DAC substantially hastens the onset of net-zero CO2 emissions (to 2085–2095) and peak warming (to 2090–2095); yet warming still reaches 2.4–2.5 °C in 2100. Such massive CO2 removals hinge on near-term investment to boost the future capacity for upscaling. DAC is most cost-effective when using electricity sources already available today: hydropower and natural gas with renewables; fully renewable systems are more expensive because their low load factors do not allow efficient amortization of capital-intensive DAC plants. Governments may struggle to impose costly polices on vital industries, resulting in a greater need for negative emissions. Here, the authors model a direct air capture crash deployment program, finding it can remove 2.3 GtCO2 yr–1 in 2050, 13–20 GtCO2 yr–1 in 2075, and 570–840 GtCO2 cumulative over 2025–2100.
Air pollution reduction policies can simultaneously mitigate CO2 emissions in the industrial sector, but the extent of these co-benefits is understudied. We analyse the potential co-benefits for SO2, NOx, particulate matter (PM) and CO2 emission reduction in major industrial sectors in China. We construct and analyse a firm-level database covering nearly 80 observations and use scenario simulations to estimate the co-benefits. The findings show that substantial co-benefits could be achieved with three specific interventions. Energy intensity improvement can reduce SO2, NOx, PM and CO2 emissions for non-power sectors by 26–44%, 19–44%, 25–46% and 18–50%, respectively. Reductions from scale structure adjustment such as phasing out small firms and developing large ones can amount to 1–8%, 1–6%, 2–20% and 0.2–3%. Electrification can reduce emissions by 19–25%, 4–28%, 20–29% and 11–12% if the share of electricity generated from non-fossil fuel sources is 70%. Since firm heterogeneity is essential to realize the co-benefits and directly determines the magnitudes of these benefits, stricter and sensible environmental policies targeting industrial firms can accelerate China’s sustainable transformation.
Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and
their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere
in a changing climate – the “global carbon budget” – is important to
better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of
climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and
synthesize data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components
of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2
emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production
data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly
deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and
bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly
and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in
concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial
CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models
constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance
(BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the
estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a
measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon
cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last
decade available (2010–2019), EFOS was 9.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 excluding the cement carbonation sink (9.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and
ELUC was 1.6 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1. For the same decade, GATM was 5.1 ± 0.02 GtC yr−1 (2.4 ± 0.01 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN 2.5 ± 0.6 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.4 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1, with a budget
imbalance BIM of −0.1 GtC yr−1 indicating a near balance between
estimated sources and sinks over the last decade. For the year 2019 alone, the
growth in EFOS was only about 0.1 % with fossil emissions increasing
to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 excluding the cement carbonation sink (9.7 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.8 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for total anthropogenic CO2 emissions of 11.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1 (42.2 ± 3.3 GtCO2). Also for 2019, GATM was
5.4 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.5 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN
was 2.6 ± 0.6 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.1 ± 1.2 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2
concentration reached 409.85 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2019. Preliminary
data for 2020, accounting for the COVID-19-induced changes in emissions,
suggest a decrease in EFOS relative to 2019 of about −7 % (median
estimate) based on individual estimates from four studies of −6 %, −7 %,
−7 % (−3 % to −11 %), and −13 %. Overall, the mean and trend in the
components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the
period 1959–2019, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the
representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of
estimates from diverse approaches and observations shows (1) no consensus
in the mean and trend in land-use change emissions over the last decade, (2)
a persistent low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of
the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent
discrepancy between the different methods for the ocean sink outside the
tropics, particularly in the Southern Ocean. This living data update
documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global
carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle
compared with previous publications of this data set (Friedlingstein et al.,
2019; Le Quéré et al., 2018b, a, 2016, 2015b, a, 2014,
2013). The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2020 (Friedlingstein et al., 2020).
Limiting the rise in global mean temperatures relies on reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and on the removal of CO2 by land carbon sinks. China is currently the single largest emitter of CO2, responsible for approximately 27 per cent (2.67 petagrams of carbon per year) of global fossil fuel emissions in 2017¹. Understanding of Chinese land biosphere fluxes has been hampered by sparse data coverage2–4, which has resulted in a wide range of a posteriori estimates of flux. Here we present recently available data on the atmospheric mole fraction of CO2, measured from six sites across China during 2009 to 2016. Using these data, we estimate a mean Chinese land biosphere sink of −1.11 ± 0.38 petagrams of carbon per year during 2010 to 2016, equivalent to about 45 per cent of our estimate of annual Chinese anthropogenic emissions over that period. Our estimate reflects a previously underestimated land carbon sink over southwest China (Yunnan, Guizhou and Guangxi provinces) throughout the year, and over northeast China (especially Heilongjiang and Jilin provinces) during summer months. These provinces have established a pattern of rapid afforestation of progressively larger regions5,6, with provincial forest areas increasing by between 0.04 million and 0.44 million hectares per year over the past 10 to 15 years. These large-scale changes reflect the expansion of fast-growing plantation forests that contribute to timber exports and the domestic production of paper⁷. Space-borne observations of vegetation greenness show a large increase with time over this study period, supporting the timing and increase in the land carbon sink over these afforestation regions.
The COVID-19 pandemic is impacting human activities, and in turn energy use and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. Here we present daily estimates of country-level CO2 emissions for different sectors based on near-real-time activity data. The key result is an abrupt 8.8% decrease in global CO₂ emissions (−1551 Mt CO₂) in the first half of 2020 compared to the same period in 2019. The magnitude of this decrease is larger than during previous economic downturns or World War II. The timing of emissions decreases corresponds to lockdown measures in each country. By July 1st, the pandemic’s effects on global emissions diminished as lockdown restrictions relaxed and some economic activities restarted, especially in China and several European countries, but substantial differences persist between countries, with continuing emission declines in the U.S. where coronavirus cases are still increasing substantially.
The Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research provides emission time series from 1970 until 2019 forfossil CO2 for all countries.
This report is contributing to the Paris Agreement process with an independent andquantitative view of global fossil CO2 emissions
China-US trade holds great significance for the world’s political and economic landscape. Since 2018, the US government has imposed additional tariffs on Chinese exports on the grounds of the US trade deficit with China. However, the transfer of pollutants embodied in trade and the differences in environmental costs between China and the US have not been widely recognized. In this study, we quantify the embodied carbon emissions (the “virtual” emissions associated with trade and consumption) in China-US trade by constructing a carbon dioxide emissions inventory and a multiregional input-output model. The study shows that the US benefits from a trade surplus of environmental costs by importing energy-intensive and pollution-intensive products from China, which increases China’s environmental pollution and abatement costs. In 2017, 288 Mt CO2 emissions were associated with products produced in China but finally consumed in the US, and only 46 Mt CO2 were associated with the US products that were consumed in China. From this perspective, China-US trade results in a net transfer of 242 Mt CO2 per year from the US to China, accounting for approximately 5% of the total CO2 emissions in the US. More importantly, for Chinese products exported to the US, the carbon emissions embodied in one unit of economic value amount to 0.92 kg/$ (RMB: USD=6.8:1), but for US products exported to China, the carbon emissions embodied in one unit of economic value amount to 0.53 kg/$, which means China will incur environmental costs that are 74% higher than those of the US while enjoying the same economic benefits. This environmental trade deficit has burdened China with higher environmental costs thaneconomic benefits. To address this environmental trade deficit, China should actively promote further industrial upgrading and energy structure adjustment and increase investment in innovation and R&D, thereby increasing the value added per unit of export products and reducing the environmental cost of producing export products.
In order to track progress towards the global climate
targets, the parties that signed the Paris Climate Agreement will regularly
report their anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions based on
energy statistics and CO2 emission factors. Independent evaluation of
this self-reporting system is a fast-growing research topic. Here, we study
the value of satellite observations of the column CO2 concentrations to
estimate CO2 anthropogenic emissions with 5 years of the Orbiting
Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) retrievals over and around China. With the
detailed information of emission source locations and the local wind, we
successfully observe CO2 plumes from 46 cities and industrial regions
over China and quantify their CO2 emissions from the OCO-2
observations, which add up to a total of 1.3 Gt CO2 yr−1 that
accounts for approximately 13 % of mainland China's annual emissions. The
number of cities whose emissions are constrained by OCO-2 here is 3 to
10 times larger than in previous studies that only focused on large cities and
power plants in different locations around the world. Our satellite-based
emission estimates are broadly consistent with the independent values from
China's detailed emission inventory MEIC but are more different from those
of two widely used global gridded emission datasets (i.e., EDGAR and ODIAC),
especially for the emission estimates for the individual cities. These
results demonstrate some skill in the satellite-based emission
quantification for isolated source clusters with the OCO-2, despite the
sparse sampling of this instrument not designed for this purpose. This skill
can be improved by future satellite missions that will have a denser spatial
sampling of surface emitting areas, which will come soon in the early 2020s.
The costs for solar photovoltaics, wind, and battery storage have dropped markedly since 2010, however, many recent studies and reports around the world have not adequately captured such dramatic decrease. Those costs are projected to decline further in the near future, bringing new prospects for the widespread penetration of renewables and extensive power-sector decarbonization that previous policy discussions did not fully consider. Here we show if cost trends for renewables continue, 62% of China’s electricity could come from non-fossil sources by 2030 at a cost that is 11% lower than achieved through a business-as-usual approach. Further, China’s power sector could cut half of its 2015 carbon emissions at a cost about 6% lower compared to business-as-usual conditions.
The 2008–2009 financial crisis, often referred to as the Great Recession, presented one of the greatest challenges to economies since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Before the financial crisis, and in response to the Kyoto Protocol, many countries were making great strides in increasing energy efficiency, reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emission intensity and reducing their emissions of CO2. During the financial crisis, CO2 emissions declined in response to a decrease in economic activity. The focus of this research is to study how energy related CO2 emissions and their driving factors after the financial crisis compare to the period before the financial crisis. The logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method is used to decompose changes in country level CO2 emissions into contributing factors representing carbon intensity, energy intensity, economic activity, and population. The analysis is conducted for a group of 19 major countries (G19) which form the core of the G20. For the G19, as a group, the increase in CO2 emissions post-financial crisis was less than the increase in CO2 emissions pre-financial crisis. China is the only BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) country to record changes in CO2 emissions, carbon intensity and energy intensity in the post-financial crisis period that were lower than their respective values in the pre-financial crisis period. Compared to the pre-financial crisis period, Germany, France, and Italy also recorded lower CO2 emissions, carbon intensity and energy intensity in the post-financial crisis period. Germany and Great Britain are the only two countries to record negative changes in CO2 emissions over both periods. Continued improvements in reducing CO2 emissions, carbon intensity and energy intensity are hard to come by, as only four out of nineteen countries were able to achieve this. Most countries are experiencing weak decoupling between CO2 emissions and GDP. Germany and France are the two countries that stand out as leaders among the G19.
Developing localized climate mitigation strategies needs an understanding of how global consumption drives local carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions with a fine spatial resolution. There is no study that provides a spatially explicit mapping of global carbon footprint in China―the world’s largest CO2 emitter―simultaneously considering both international and interprovincial trade. Here we map CO2 emissions in China driven by global consumption in 2012 at a high spatial resolution (10 km × 10 km) using a detailed, firm-level emission inventory. Our results show that the carbon footprints of foreign regions in China are concentrated in key manufacturing hubs, including the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and North China Plain. Approximately 1% of the land area holds 75% of the global carbon footprint in China. The carbon footprint hotspots in China identified are the key places in which collaborative mitigation efforts between China and downstream parties that drive those emissions. There lacks a spatially explicit mapping of global carbon footprint in China that considers both international and interprovincial trade. Here the authors map the carbon footprints of global regions in China and show the hotspots concentrated in key manufacturing hubs, including the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and North China Plain.
There are substantial differences in carbon footprints across households. This study applied an environmentally extended multiregional input–output approach to estimate household carbon footprints for 12 different income groups of China’s 30 regions. Subsequently, carbon footprint Gini coefficients were calculated to measure carbon inequality for households across provinces. We found that the top 5% of income earners were responsible for 17% of the national household carbon footprint in 2012, while the bottom half of income earners caused only 25%. Carbon inequality declined with economic growth in China across space and time in two ways: first, carbon footprints showed greater convergence in the wealthier coastal regions than in the poorer inland regions; second, China’s national carbon footprint Gini coefficients declined from 0.44 in 2007 to 0.37 in 2012. We argue that economic growth not only increases income levels but also contributes to an overall reduction in carbon inequality in China.
Fully decarbonizing global industry is essential to achieving climate stabilization, and reaching net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050–2070 is necessary to limit global warming to 2 °C. This paper assembles and evaluates technical and policy interventions, both on the supply side and on the demand side. It identifies measures that, employed together, can achieve net zero industrial emissions in the required timeframe. Key supply-side technologies include energy efficiency (especially at the system level), carbon capture, electrification, and zero-carbon hydrogen as a heat source and chemical feedstock. There are also promising technologies specific to each of the three top-emitting industries: cement, iron & steel, and chemicals & plastics. These include cement admixtures and alternative chemistries, several technological routes for zero-carbon steelmaking, and novel chemical catalysts and separation technologies. Crucial demand-side approaches include material-efficient design, reductions in material waste, substituting low-carbon for high-carbon materials, and circular economy interventions (such as improving product longevity, reusability, ease of refurbishment, and recyclability). Strategic, well-designed policy can accelerate innovation and provide incentives for technology deployment. High-value policies include carbon pricing with border adjustments or other price signals; robust government support for research, development, and deployment; and energy efficiency or emissions standards. These core policies should be supported by labeling and government procurement of low-carbon products, data collection and disclosure requirements, and recycling incentives. In implementing these policies, care must be taken to ensure a just transition for displaced workers and affected communities. Similarly, decarbonization must complement the human and economic development of low- and middle-income countries.
Reduction of CO2 emissions associated with cement production is challenging in view of the increasing cement demand and the fact that major part of the emissions originates from the main raw material used - limestone - which can be only to extremely low amount substituted. A Carbon Capture and Utilization (CCU) approach based on mineralization of fines derived from concrete appears to be a viable alternative to reduce these emissions. The CO2 sequestration and the reactivity of the obtained carbonated recycled fines is experimentally demonstrated for lab as well as industrial materials for different mineralization conditions. It is shown that all CO2 originally released by limestone calcination during clinker production can be sequestered by the full carbonation of the fines within a short time. Upon full carbonation, gels with pozzolanic properties form in the fines irrespective of the conditions tested. The carbonated fines have specific CO2 savings more than 30% higher than the simple clinker replacement by limestone.
China has entered the economic transition in the post-financial crisis era, with unprecedented new features that significantly lead to a decline in its carbon emissions. However, regional disparity implies different trajectories in regional decarbonisation. Here, we construct multi-regional input–output tables (MRIO) for 2012 and 2015 and quantitatively evaluate the regional disparity in decarbonisation and the driving forces during 2012–2015. We found China's consumption-based emissions peaked in 2013, largely driven by a peak in consumption-based emissions from developing regions. Declined intensity and industrial structures are determinants due to the economic transition. The rise of the Southwest and Central regions of China have become a new feature, driving up emissions embodied in trade and have reinforced the pattern of carbon flows in the post-financial crisis period. Export-related emissions have bounced up after years of decline, attributed to soaring export volume and export structure in the Southeast and North of the country. The disparity in developing regions has become the new feature in shaping China's economy and decarbonisation.
In order to track progress towards the global climate targets, the parties that signed the Paris Climate Agreement will regularly report their anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions based on energy statistics and CO2 emission factors. Independent evaluation of this self-reporting system is a fast-growing research topic. Here, we study the value of satellite observations of the column CO2 concentrations to estimate CO2 anthropogenic emissions with five years of the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) retrievals over and around China. With the detailed information of emission source locations and the local wind, we successfully observe CO2 plumes from 60 cities and industrial regions over China and quantify their CO2 emissions from the OCO-2 observations, which add up to a total of 1.6 Gt CO2 yr−1 that account for 17% of mainland China’s annual emissions. The number of cities whose emissions are constrained by OCO-2 here is three to ten times larger than previous studies that only focused on large cities and power plants in different locations around the world. Our satellite-based emission estimates are broadly consistent with the independent values from the detailed China’s emission inventory MEIC, but are more different from those of two widely used global gridded emission datasets (i.e., EDGAR and ODIAC), especially for the emission estimates for the individual cities. These results demonstrate some skill in the satellite-based emission quantification for isolated source clusters with the OCO-2, despite the sparse sampling of this instrument not designed for this purpose. This skill can be improved by future satellite missions that will have a denser spatial sampling of surface emitting areas, which will come soon in the early 2020s.
Despite China’s emissions having plateaued in 2013, it is still the world’s leading energy consumer and CO2 emitter, accounting for approximately 30% of global emissions. Detailed CO2 emission inventories by energy and sector have great significance to China’s carbon policies as well as to achieving global climate change mitigation targets. This study constructs the most up-to-date CO2 emission inventories for China and its 30 provinces, as well as their energy inventories for the years 2016 and 2017. The newly compiled inventories provide key updates and supplements to our previous emission dataset for 1997–2015. Emissions are calculated based on IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) administrative territorial scope that covers all anthropogenic emissions generated within an administrative boundary due to energy consumption (i.e. energy-related emissions from 17 fossil fuel types) and industrial production (i.e. process-related emissions from cement production). The inventories are constructed for 47 economic sectors consistent with the national economic accounting system. The data can be used as inputs to climate and integrated assessment models and for analysis of emission patterns of China and its regions.
CO 2 emissions are of global concern because of climate change. China has become the largest CO 2 emitter in the world and presently accounts for 30% of global emissions. Here, we analyze the major drivers of energy-related CO 2 emissions in China from 1978 when the reform and opening-up policy was launched. We find that 1) there has been a 6-fold increase in energy-related CO 2 emissions, which was driven primarily (176%) by economic growth followed by population growth (16%), while the effects of energy intensity (−79%) and carbon intensity (−13%) slowed the growth of carbon emissions over most of this period; 2) energy-related CO 2 emissions are positively related to per capita gross domestic product (GDP), population growth rate, carbon intensity, and energy intensity; and 3) a portfolio of command-and-control policies affecting the drivers has altered the total emission trend. However, given the major role of China in global climate change mitigation, significant future reductions in China’s CO 2 emissions will require transformation toward low-carbon energy systems.
Vegetation greenness has been increasing globally since at least 1981, when satellite technology enabled large-scale vegetation monitoring. The greening phenomenon, together with warming, sea-level rise and sea-ice decline, represents highly credible evidence of anthropogenic climate change. In this Review, we examine the detection of the greening signal, its causes and its consequences. Greening is pronounced over intensively farmed or afforested areas, such as in China and India, reflecting human activities. However, strong greening also occurs in biomes with low human footprint, such as the Arctic, where global change drivers play a dominant role. Vegetation models suggest that CO2 fertilization is the main driver of greening on the global scale, with other factors being notable at the regional scale. Modelling indicates that greening could mitigate global warming by increasing the carbon sink on land and altering biogeophysical processes, mainly evaporative cooling. Coupling high temporal and fine spatial resolution remote-sensing observations with ground measurements, increasing sampling in the tropics and Arctic, and modelling Earth systems in more detail will further our insights into the greening of Earth.
China’s CO2 emissions have plateaued under its commitment to reaching peak carbon emissions before 2030 in order to mitigate global climate change. This commitment is aligned with China’s turn toward more sustainable development, named “the new normal” phase. This study aims to explore the role of possible socioeconomic drivers of China’s CO2 emission changes by using structural decomposition analysis (SDA) for 2002–2017. The results show deceleration of China’s annual emissions growth from 10% (2002–2012) to 0.3% (2012–2017), which is mainly caused by gains in energy efficiency, deceleration of economic growth, and changes in consumption patterns. Gains in energy efficiency are the most important determinants, offsetting the increase by 49% during 2012–2017. The recent moderation of emission growth is also attributed to China’s decelerating annual growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita from 12% (2002–2012) to 6% (2012–2017) and to the economic transformation to consumption-led patterns in the new normal phase.
As cities are the center of human activity and the basic unit of policy design, they have become the focus of carbon dioxide reduction, especially metropolitan areas that are high energy consumers and carbon dioxide emitters in countries such as China. The fact cities differ in their levels of development and stages of industrialization points to the need for tailor-made low-carbon policies. This study is the first to consider cities' different phases of industrialization when analyzing city-level emission patterns and drivers, as well as the decoupling statuses between economic growth and their emission levels in China. The results of 15 representative cities at different phases of industrialization show that various decoupling statuses, driving factors and decoupling efforts exist among cities, and that heterogeneity among these factors also exists among cities at the same industrialization phase. For further decomposition, energy intensity contributed the most to emissions reduction during the period 2005 to 2010, especially for cities with more heavy manufacturing industries, whereas industrial structure was a stronger negative emission driver during the period 2010 to 2015. Based on those findings, we suggest putting into practice a diversified carbon-mitigation policy portfolio according to each city's industrialization phase rather than a single policy that focuses on one specific driving factor. This paper sets an example on emissions-reduction experience for other cities undergoing different industrialization phases in China; it also sheds light on policy initiatives that could be applied to other cities around the world.
China’s strong economic growth over the past 40 years has been followed by similar strong growth in energy consumption, based on coal. A continuation of this development is not sustainable, and China has set new ambitious targets for future energy systems development, which in reality calls for a genuine energy revolution in order to build a clean, low-carbon, safe, and efficient energy system towards 2035 and 2050. This paper looks at the mechanisms behind the energy transition, analysis of a concrete case for a sustainable energy system in 2050, and points to policy measures and instruments to ensure the necessary progress in this energy transition. The case shows that it is possible for China in 2050 to reduce CO2 emission to one-third of today’s emission while at the same time maintaining economic growth, improving security of supply, air quality, and economic efficiency of the power system.
Based on policy instrument theory and a case of low-carbon city development (Qihe County in Shandong), this study examined the policy instruments adopted for low-carbon city development in China and the effectiveness of these instruments. All the policies adopted by the piloted city from 2008 and 2014 were collected, coded, and analyzed. A two-dimensional analytical framework was developed based on a trichotomous policy instrument categorization and low-carbon city connotation. The results showed that the key goal of China’s low-carbon city construction is to develop low-carbon technology and low-carbon energy. Compulsory policy instruments are the most used and most effective, while voluntary policy instruments are rarely used. Further results indicated that when the ratio of compulsory instruments and mixed instruments comes to 2:1, the combination of policy instruments can lead to the optimal completion degree. It seems difficult to balance the stability of various policy instruments with the overall high completion degree. Chinese local governments are more accustomed to compulsory policy instruments. This reminds policymakers to pay more attention to the potential of voluntary instruments and mixed instruments in building low-carbon cities.
Low carbon city (LCC) has emerged as the latest sustainable urbanism strategy in China as a response to climate change impacts. Yet, minimal scholarships have explored the sustainability of the urban planning model towards understanding the complexity of the components. Using a two-step triangulation approach, this paper presents a structured overview of the LCC initiative in China as it relates to the transition to a sustainability paradigm. The data collection approach includes a comprehensive review of 238 articles on LCC to identify and categorize LCC components. Furthermore, discourse and framing analysis was used to develop and synthesize a conceptual framework for assimilating the components into four core sustainable development principles: Integration, implementation, equity, and scalability and replicability. The results indicate that LCC development in China is bias towards economic and environmental technological innovations and strategies. Additionally, several critical sustainability issues of LCC pilots were identified. These include a lack of social equity planning concerns for the most vulnerable population, dearth of social reforms that cater to lifestyle and behavioral change, top-down planning and decision-making processes, a technocratic rationalization planning approach, inconsistent LCC targets on inter-generational justice concerns, absence of an effective national "sharing and learning" city-city network system, and several barriers to implementation. We conclude that the applied theoretical and conceptual inquiry into the field of LCC is pertinent to mitigate climate change and achieve sustainable urban development.
Global climate change has raised concerns about the relationship between ecosystems and forests, which is a core component of the carbon cycle and a critical factor in understanding and mitigating the effects of climate change. Forest models and sufficient information for predictions are important for ensuring efficient afforestation activities and sustainable forest development. Based on the theory of difference equations and the general rules of tree growth, this study established a difference equation for the relationship between the ratio of tree diameter at breast height (DBH) to the tree height and age of age of China’s main arbor species. A comparison with equations that represent the traditional tree growth models, i.e., Logistic and Richards equations, showed that the difference equations exhibited higher precision for both fitting and verification data. Moreover, the biomass carbon stocks (BCS) of Chinese forests from 2013 to 2050 were predicted by combining the 8th Chinese Ministry of Forestry and partial continuous forest inventory (CFI) data sets. The results showed that the BCS of Chinese forests would increase from 7342 to 11,030 terra grams of carbon (Tg C) in 2013–2050, with an annual biomass C (carbon) sink of 99.68 Tg C year−1, and they indicated that the Chinese land-surface forest vegetation has an important carbon sequestration capability.
Net anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions must approach zero by mid-century (2050) to stabilize global mean temperature at the levels targeted by international efforts1–5. Yet continued expansion of fossil-fuel energy infrastructure implies already ‘committed’ future CO2 emissions6–13. Here we use detailed datasets of current fossil-fuel-burning energy infrastructure in 2018 to estimate regional and sectoral patterns of ‘committed’ CO2 emissions, the sensitivity of such emissions to assumed operating lifetimes and schedules, and the economic value of associated infrastructure. We estimate that, if operated as historically, existing infrastructure will emit about 658 gigatonnes (Gt) of CO2 (ranging from 226 to 1,479 Gt CO2 depending on assumed lifetimes and utilization rates). More than half of these emissions are projected to come from the electricity sector, and infrastructure in China, the USA and the EU28 countries represent approximately 41 per cent, 9 per cent and 7 per cent of the total, respectively. If built, proposed power plants (planned, permitted or under construction) would emit approximately an additional 188 (range 37–427) Gt CO2. Committed emissions from existing and proposed energy infrastructure (about 846 Gt CO2) thus represent more than the entire remaining carbon budget if mean warming is to be limited to 1.5 °C with a probability of 50–66 per cent (420–580 Gt CO2)5, and perhaps two-thirds of the remaining carbon budget if mean warming is to be limited to below 2 °C (1,170–1,500 Gt CO2)5. The remaining carbon budget estimates are varied and nuanced14,15, depending on the climate target and the availability of large-scale negative emissions16. Nevertheless, our emission estimates suggest that little or no additional CO2-emitting infrastructure can be commissioned, and that infrastructure retirements that are earlier than historical ones (or retrofits with carbon capture and storage technology) may be necessary, in order to meet the Paris Agreement climate goals17. On the basis of the asset value per ton of committed emissions, we estimate that the most cost-effective premature infrastructure retirements will be in the electricity and industry sectors, if non-emitting alternative technologies are available and affordable4,18.
Globalization of supply chains has resulted in rapid increases in emission transfers from the developing to the developed world. As outsourcing has risen, developed countries have been able to decarbonize domestically, at the expense of increased emissions in developing countries. However, the rapid improvement of carbon efficiency in developing regions together with the post-2008 deceleration in international trade raises the question of whether such embodied emission transfers have peaked. Here we update historical analysis, finding that emission transfers between OECD and non-OECD countries peaked in 2006, and have been declining since. The reversal is principally due to the reduction in the emissions intensity of traded goods, rather than the volume of trade. A more recent decline in embodied emissions transfers is also observed in trade between developing countries. We analyse whether these trends are likely to continue, by exploring a baseline and a Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) scenario with the Macro-ejconometric Energy-Environment-Economy Model (E3ME) model. The results suggest that absolute embodied emissions will plateau at current levels or slowly return to pre-2008- crisis levels, and differences between the NDC and baseline scenarios imply that NDC policies will not result in significant carbon leakage. However, the share of national footprint embodied in imports, at least for countries with ambitious decarbonization policies, will likely increase. This suggests that, despite the world-wide stabilization of emissions transfers, addressing emissions embodied in imports will become increasingly important for reducing carbon footprints.
• Key policy insights
• Emissions embodied in imports have plateaued since 2006, and are unlikely to return to the peak of the mid-2000s.
• For developed countries, as domestic decarbonization occurs, the share of emissions embodied in imports as a percentage of the total national carbon footprint will increase.
• The Paris NDCs in themselves are unlikely to cause significant carbon leakage.
• Climate policy will ideally focus on reducing both production and consumption emissions, through a variety of mechanisms, especially centred around international assistance.
Climate policies targeting CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels can simultaneously reduce emissions of air pollutants and their precursors, thus mitigating air pollution and associated health impacts. Previous work has examined co-benefits of climate policy from reducing PM₂.₅ in rapidly-developing countries such as China, but have not examined co-benefits from ozone and its transboundary impact for both PM₂.₅ and ozone. Here, we compare the air quality and health co-benefits of China's climate policy on both PM₂.₅ and ozone in China to their co-benefits in three downwind and populous countries (South Korea, Japan and the United States) using a coupled modeling framework. In a policy scenario consistent with China's pledge to peak CO₂ emissions in approximately 2030, avoided premature deaths from ozone reductions are 54 300 (95% confidence interval: 37 100-71 000) in China in 2030, nearly 60% of those from PM₂.₅. Total avoided premature deaths in South Korea, Japan, and the US are 1200 (900-1600), 3500 (2800-4300), and 1900 (1400-2500), respectively. Total avoided deaths in South Korea and Japan are dominated by reductions in PM₂.₅-related mortality, but ozone plays a more important role in the US. Similar to co-benefits for PM₂.₅ in China, co-benefits of China's policy for ozone and for both pollutants in those downwind countries also rise with increasing policy stringency. Keywords: climate policy; air quality; human health; co-benefits; transboundary air pollution
China announced at the Paris Climate Change Conference in 2015 that the country would reach peak carbon emissions around 2030. Since then, widespread attention has been devoted to determining when and how this goal will be achieved. This study aims to explore the role of China's changing regional development patterns in the achievement of this goal. This study uses the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) to estimate seven socioeconomic drivers of the changes in CO 2 emissions in China since 2000. The results show that China's carbon emissions have plateaued since 2012 mainly because of energy efficiency gains and structural upgrades (i.e., industrial structure, energy mix and regional structure). Regional structure, measured by provincial economic growth shares, has drastically reduced CO 2 emissions since 2012. The effects of these drivers on emissions changes varied across regions due to their different regional development patterns. Industrial structure and energy mix resulted in emissions growth in some regions, but these two drivers led to emissions reduction at the national level. For example, industrial structure reduced China's CO 2 emissions by 1.0% from 2013 to 2016; however, it increased CO 2 emissions in the Northeast and Northwest regions by 1.7% and 0.9%, respectively. Studying China's plateauing CO 2 emissions in the new normal stage at the regional level yields a strong recommendation that China's regions cooperate to improve development patterns.
Change in the air
The 2016 Paris Agreement set the ambitious goals of keeping global temperature rise this century below 2°C, or even better, 1.5°C above preindustrial levels. Substantial interventions are required to meet these goals, particularly for industrialized countries. Duan et al. projected that China will need to reduce its carbon emissions by more than 90% and its energy consumption by almost 40% to do its share in reaching the 1.5°C target. Negative emission technology is an essential element of any plan. China's accumulated economic costs by 2050 may be about 3 to 6% of its gross domestic product.
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Climate change has significant impacts on natural ecosystems and human living environments. Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is a critical technology that can offer net CO2 emission reductions while providing a sustainable energy supply at lower costs. The role of the BECCS deployment in achieving deep decarbonization in China needs to be quantified. Scenario analyses were conducted in this study based on a computable general equilibrium energy-economic model, the China-in-Global Energy Model (C-GEM), with detailed representations of BECCS. The results showed that BECCS will capture 0.59 gigatonnes of CO2 in 2050 under the 2 °C Scenario and 0.95 gigatonnes of CO2 in 2050 under the 1.5 °C Scenario, respectively. If these emission targets have to be reached without BECCS, the carbon price and gross domestic product (GDP) losses will be higher. Especially under the 1.5 °C Scenario, the deployment of BECCS can reduce the carbon price by 61% and the GDP loss rate by three percentage points in 2050 compared with that without the deployment of BECCS.
The use of cement and concrete, among the most widely used man-made materials,
is under scrutiny. Owing to their large-scale use, production of cement and concrete results in substantial emission of greenhouse gases and places strain on the availability of natural resources, such as water. Projected urbanization over the next 50–100 years therefore indicates that the demand for cement and concrete will continue to increase, necessitating strategies to limit their environmental impact. In this Review, we shed light on the available solutions that can be implemented within the next decade and beyond to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from cement and concrete production. As the construction sector has proven to be very slow-moving and risk-averse, we focus on minor improvements that can be achieved across the value chain, such as the use of supplementary cementitious materials and optimizing the clinker content of cement. Critically, the combined effect of these marginal gains can have an important impact on
reducing greenhouse gas emissions by up to 50% if all stakeholders are engaged. In doing so, we reveal credible pathways for sustainable concrete use that balance societal needs, environmental requirements and technical feasibility.
As the world's largest coal producer and consumer, China's transition from coal to cleaner energy sources is critical for achieving global decarbonization. Increasing regulations on air pollution and carbon emissions and decreasing costs of renewables drive China's transition away from coal; however, this transition also has implications for employment and social justice. Here, we assess China's current coal-transition policies, their barriers, and the potential for an accelerated transition, as well as the associated environmental, human health, and employment and social justice issues that may arise from the transition. We estimate that the most aggressive coal-transition pathway could reduce annual premature death related to coal combustion by 224,000 and reduce annual water consumption by 4.3 billion m3 in 2050 compared with business-as-usual. We highlight knowledge gaps and conclude with policy recommendations for an integrated approach to facilitate a rapid and just transition away from coal in China.
The anticipated growth and urbanization of the global population over the next several decades will create a vast demand for the construction of new housing, commercial buildings and accompanying infrastructure. The production of cement, steel and other building materials associated with this wave of construction will become a major source of greenhouse gas emissions. Might it be possible to transform this potential threat to the global climate system into a powerful means to mitigate climate change? To answer this provocative question, we explore the potential of mid-rise urban buildings designed with engineered timber to provide long-term storage of carbon and to avoid the carbon-intensive production of mineral-based construction materials.
