FORECASTING THE VOLUME OF CONSTRUCTION WASTE

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THEORETICAL FOUNDATIONS OF ENGINEERING. TASKS AND PROBLEMS
70
SECTION 2. ARCHITECTURE AND CONSTRUCTION
2.1 Forecasting the volume of construction waste
Along with the problem of municipal solid waste [72-80], the problem of
construction waste is important, the annual volume of which in Ukraine according to
the Ministry of Environment is almost 1 million tons. The annual increase in the area
occupied by waste is 50 thousand hectares [81] . Construction waste can be widely
used in construction to obtain such valuable materials as filler [82] and binder [83-85]
for the production of concrete, dry mixes and other building materials [86, 87], for the
production of building materials from protective properties against electromagnetic
radiation [88, 89] and static electricity [90], for the manufacture of anode grounding
[91]. Many mineral and organic wastes in their chemical composition and technical
properties are close to natural raw materials. Also promising is the use of fine metal
waste to minimize the volume of immobilized liquid radioactive waste [92]. In world
practice, about 90% of construction waste is recyclable and reusable. Therefore,
forecasting the volume of construction waste in different countries from the main
parameters of influence in order to develop a strategy for construction waste
management is an urgent scientific and technical task.
The sludge-ash-carbonate press concrete proposed in [82] consists of waste stone-
cutting of carbonate rocks, ash-removal of Ladyzhyn TPP, red sludge of the Mykolayiv
Alumina Plant with the addition of Portland cement. In [83] it is shown that the creation
of new building materials for multifunctional purposes allows to solve the problem of
energy and resource saving relevant for Ukraine. The main way to dispose of red sludge
in the production of building materials is its use as a modifying additive to gold-cement
binder [84]. In [85], a metal-ash-phosphate binder based on industrial waste was
proposed. The technical and economic feasibility of wider use of thermal power plant
waste in the production of cement and other building materials is shown in [86]. The
article [87] shows that the production of concrete gravel, fine-grained screenings and
their reuse is the final stage of a closed cycle of processing of concrete and reinforced

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concrete waste – "wear – export – processing – sale". The use of betel-m (electrically
conductive metal-saturated concrete, which uses a special coating of biological
protection against ionizing radiation inside buildings and structures) cellular,
variotropic and dense structure allows to reduce the level of electromagnetic radiation
and thus reduce the risk of radiation [88]. The expediency of using fine powders of
SHH-15 steel sludge for the manufacture of a special protective coating against
electromagnetic radiation is substantiated in the article [89]. In [90] it is proposed to
use a coating of electrically conductive concrete to combat static electricity charges,
the manufacturing technology of which is quite simple and does not require expensive
materials and special equipment. Betel-m can be used for the manufacture of
electrically conductive elements (anode grounding) of anti-corrosion cathodic
protection systems of underground engineering networks [91]. The use of metal-
saturated concrete as an antistatic coating is proposed in the article [92]. In [93],
statistical data on the volume of construction waste production in different countries
are presented. The article [94] defines the regression dependence, which describes the
dynamics of the generation of construction and demolition waste in Vinnytsia region
and allows to predict the mass of this waste. However, the authors did not identify
specific mathematical dependences of the volume of construction waste production in
different countries of the world on the main parameters of influence, as a result of the
analysis of known publications.
Among the parameters on which the volume of construction waste in different
countries depends, the following were considered: population density, gross domestic
product (GDP) per capita, human development index, average latitude of the country,
the values of which are given in table. 1. In contrast to absolute parameters, relative
ones allow comparing countries with different levels of economic development and
human potential, population, area and climatic conditions.

THEORETICAL FOUNDATIONS OF ENGINEERING. TASKS AND PROBLEMS
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Table 1. Volumes of construction waste production in different countries of the world [93]
Country
Mass of
construction waste
per capita,
kg/person
Influencing factors
Population
density,
persons/
km2
GDP per
capita,
thousand $/
person
Human
Develop-
ment Index
Average
latitude,
º nrd. l.
USA
374.771
31
46.954
0.95
36.94
Great Britain
450.113
247
46.432
0.942
55.38
Korea
311.688
480
20.582
0.928
38.06
Italy
331.345
199.4
39.565
0.945
41.28
Spain
276.949
79.7
35.557
0.949
39.5
Netherlands
636.574
394
51.657
0.958
52.15
Canada
266.028
3.27
34.273
0.967
62.39
Belgium
610.82
318
29.814
0.948
50.83
Portugal
291.829
114
22.232
0.795
39.69
Denmark
516.707
126.4
34.7
0.952
56.18
Greece
186.567
85.3
30.661
0.947
39
Sweden
195.503
21.9
55.427
0.958
62.2
Norway
281.532
12
72.306
0.968
62
Finland
181.225
16
36.217
0.954
64.8
Ukraine
22.3023
76
7.532
0.786
48.38
According to table. 1 using the planning of the experiment using rotatable central
compositional planning of the second order using the developed software, protected by
the certificate of the work [95] and described in detail in [96], obtained a regression
equation that produces construction waste in different countries impact and looks like
this [97]

THEORETICAL FOUNDATIONS OF ENGINEERING. TASKS AND PROBLEMS
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, (1)
where mCV – mass of construction waste per capita, kg/person; np/Sc– population
density, persons/km2; GDP/np – GDP per capita, thousand $/person; np – the population
of the country, persons; Sc – area of the country, km2; HDI – human development index
(HDI = 0…1); L – average latitude, º nrd. l.
According to Student's criterion, all factors, their paired interaction effects, except
np/ScL, and quadratic effects were significant, most construction waste in different
countries depends on GDP per capita, and least on the human development index.
It is established that according to Fisher's criterion the hypothesis about the
adequacy of the regression model (1) can be considered correct with 95% reliability.
The correlation coefficient was 0.99475, which indicates sufficient reliability of the
results.
A comparison of actual and theoretical volumes of construction waste production
in different countries of the world, ranked in descending order, is shown in Figure 1.
Figure 1 shows that the theoretical production volumes of construction waste in
different countries of the world, calculated using the regression model (1), differ
slightly from the actual data, which confirms the previously determined sufficient
reliability of the dependence, which can be used to develop a strategy for construction
waste.
Figure 2 shows the response surfaces of the target function – the volume of
construction waste in different countries and their two-dimensional cross-sections in
the planes of impact parameters, which can clearly reflect the dependence (1) and the
nature of simultaneous influence of several factors on the target function.
5106283.21.5975797.0004265.0
8.151082.14.44629.39
02982.03.128209385.378.437
22
2
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m
pc
p
ppc
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c
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CV

THEORETICAL FOUNDATIONS OF ENGINEERING. TASKS AND PROBLEMS
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Figure 1. Comparison of actual and theoretical volumes of construction waste in
different countries
a) b) c)
d) e) f)
Figure 2. Response surfaces of the target function:
a) ; b) ; c) ;
d) ; e) ; f)
( )
pcpCV nGDRSnfm ,=
( )
HDISnfm cpБВ ,=
( )
LSnfm cpCV ,=
( )
HDInGDRfm pCV ,=
( )
LnGDRfm pCV ,=
( )
LHDIfmCV ,=