The solar influencer next door: Predicting low income solar referrals and leads

Abstract

Increasing the adoption of solar among low-to-moderate income (LMI) households remains an important policy goal because of its promise to simultaneously reduce energy burden and support the just distribution of benefits of renewable energy. However, scaling LMI solar remains challenging due to affordability and access issues. Most existing LMI adoption has occurred under public-funded programs, highlighting the importance of increasing the cost-effectiveness of these programs at scale. We develop a new household-level data set on LMI solar lead acquisition, referrals, and adoption to understand the processes through which LMI solar uptake has occurred in California. Then, we develop models to predict two sub-mechanisms in the solar adoption process: whether an otherwise qualified lead becomes “lost” i.e. non-responsive to outreach and, for existing clients, whether they refer solar to others. For the program analyzed, participants received their solar system at no cost, which deemphasizes economic drivers of solar adoption and could differ from other program experiences. Both models substantially improved the accuracy of prediction relative to a baseline. Overall, we find that peer effects and solar economics are important to predicting referrals, and household demographic factors in lead loss prediction. Finally, we find that referrals are both the highest quality and largest source of LMI solar leads, providing a promising mechanism to expand LMI programs further.

Full text

UNCORRECTED PROOF
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1. Introduction
1.1. Importance of LMI solar programs
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1.2. Challenges to LMI deployment
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UNCORRECTED PROOF
B. Sigrin et al. Energy Research & Social Science xxx (xxxx) 102417
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1.3. Referrals as a key to LMI adoption
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1.4. Framework for predicting referrals and lost leads
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:G= FBGBFBS> K>LHNK<>L G>>=>= MH L<K>>G E>:=L &=>GMB?RBG@ E>:=L EBD>ER
MH =KHI HNM H? MA> IKH<>LL =N> MH E:<D H? BGM>K>LM K>=N<>L MA> K>LHNK<>L
G>>=>= MH L<K>>G E>:=L .>?>KK:EL M:K@>M ;HMA @H:EL—A:OBG@ <EB>GML @>G
>K:M> K>?>KK:EL MH MA>BK :<JN:BGM:G<>L <K>:M>L G>P E>:=L :G= E>:=L @>G
>K:M>= MAKHN@A K>?>KK:EL :K> FHK> EBD>ER MH K>LNEML BG :=HIMBHG LBG<> MA>
K>?>KK>K <:G <HGO>R IKH@K:F <KBM>KB: MH MA> K>?>K>> :G= IKHFHM> MKNLM BG
MA> LHE:K IKH@K:F
%HP>O>K MA> K>?>KK:E :G= EHLM E>:= IA>GHF>G: <:G :ELH ;> NG=>K
LMHH= PBMABG M><AGHEH@R =B??NLBHG ?K:F>PHKDL >LI><B:EER !B??NLBHG H?
&GGHO:MBHGL !,& 3BMABG MA> !,& ?K:F>PHKD LH<B:E <HGM:@BHG BL MA>
F:BG ?HK<> IKHI:@:MBG@ =B??NLBHG MAKHN@A MA> LRLM>F :G= K>?>KK:EL BML
F:GB?>LM:MBHG 0><AGHEH@R :=HIMBHG BG !,& BL :ELH =KBO>G ;R F:O>GL HK
HIBGBHG E>:=>KL MA:M :K> BGXN>GMB:E BG LIK>:=BG@ BG?HKF:MBHG :;HNM :G
BGGHO:MBHG MH I>>KL B> I>>K K>?>KK:EL !,& :ELH AB@AEB@AML MA> BFIHK
M:G<> H? trialability PA>K> G>P :=HIM>KL <:G OB<:KBHNLER ‘MKR HNM’: G>P
M><AGHEH@R ;>?HK> :=HIMBG@ BM ,G> P:R H? MKRBG@ HNM LHE:K BL ;R =BL
<NLLBG@ BM PBMA : I>>K MA:M A:L :EK>:=R :=HIM>= LHE:K I>KA:IL E>:=BG@ MH
: K>?>KK:E 0A> EHLM E>:= IA>GHF>G: K>E:M>L ;KH:=ER MH =BLBGM>K>LM BG LH
E:K :G= I>KLN:LBHG H? BML ;>G>WML %>K> ?K:F>PHKDL EBD> MA> 0A>HKR H?
-E:GG>= >A:OBHK 0- :G= 2:EN> :L>= +HKFL 2+ :K> BGLMKN<MBO>
#HK BGLM:G<> PBMABG 0- EHLM E>:=L :K> BGXN>G<>= ;R MA>BK :MMBMN=>L MH
P:K=L LHE:K :G= I>K<>BO>= LH<B:E IK>LLNK> ?HK :=HIMBG@ 78 /BFBE:KER
O:EN>L ;>EB>?L :G= GHKFL 2+ :;HNM LHE:K :K> :EE <HGC><MNK>= MH BG
XN>G<> MA> =><BLBHG MH :=HIM LHE:K 78
0A>L> ?K:F>PHKDL @NB=> MA> ?:<MHKL MA:M P> <HGC><MNK> <HNE= IK>=B<M
K>?>KK:EL :G= EHLM E>:=L -KBG<BI:EER P> >QI><M MA:M G>:K;R HK K><>GM LH
E:K BGLM:EEL PBEE >Q>KM I>>K >??><ML MA>K>;R BG<K>:LBG@ IKH;:;BEBMR H? IKH
OB=BG@ : K>?>KK:E :G= K>=N<> EBD>EBAHH= H? : EHLM E>:= ->>K >??><ML :K>
DGHPG MH H<<NK LH<B:EER :G= LI:MB:EER 78 LH MA>K> <HNE= ;> <HFI>MBG@
BGXN>G<> ?KHF ;HMA >QBLMBG@ )*& :=HIM>KL :L P>EE :L F:KD>MK:M> LHE:K
BGLM:EE:MBHGL />O>K:E LMN=B>L A:O> =>FHGLMK:M>= MA:M ><HGHFB< ;>G>WML
H? LHE:K MH MA> AHNL>AHE= :K> IHLBMBO>ER <HKK>E:M>= PBMA :=HIMBHG 7
8 =K:PBG@ HG <HG<>IML H? I>K<>BO>= ;>A:OBHK:E <HGMKHE BG 0-
:G= MA> M><AGHEH@R’L K>E:MBO> :=O:GM:@> BG !,& 0AHN@A ><HGHFB< BG
XN>G<> BL EBD>ER ;ENGM>= BG MABL =:M:L>M =N> MH MA> LN;LB=BS>= LRLM>F
<HLM O:KB:;E>L LN<A :L :FHNGM H? >E><MKB< ;BEE K>=N<MBHG LBS> H? MA> -2
LRLM>F :G= M><AGB<:E LNBM:;BEBMR ?HK LHE:K LAHNE= IHLBMBO>ER BGXN>G<>
IKH@K:F I:KMB<BI:MBHG :G= IKHOB=BG@ : K>?>KK:E
/HE:K BL H?M>G ?K:F>= :L : <HNGM>KP>B@AM MH >G>K@R :G= >GOBKHGF>G
M:E <HG<>KGL :G= IKH>GOBKHGF>GM:E GHKFL :K> DGHPG MH BG<K>:L> BGM>K
>LM BG LHE:K 78 0ANL P> >QI><M MA:M >GOBKHGF>GM:E ?:<MHKL LN<A :L >Q
IHLNK> MH :BK :G= P:M>K IHEENMBHG PBEE BG<K>:L> BGM>K>LM BG LHE:K #BG:EER
LH<BH><HGHFB< BLHE:MBHG LN<A :L E:<D H? :<<>LL MH BGM>KG>M IHO>KMR HK
EBG@NBLMB< BLHE:MBHG A:O> :ELH ;>>G LAHPG MH =><K>:L> LHE:K :=HIMBHG >L
I><B:EER BG EHPBG<HF> <HFFNGBMB>L 78 ,O>K:K<ABG@ :EE P> :K> BGM>K
>LM>= BG MA> =>@K>> MH PAB<A G>B@A;HKAHH=E>O>E ?:<MHKL <:G LN<<>LL
?NEER IK>=B<M K>?>KK:EL :G= EHLM E>:=L K>E:MBO> MH BG=BOB=N:EE>O>E ?:<MHKL


UNCORRECTED PROOF
B. Sigrin et al. Energy Research & Social Science xxx (xxxx) 102417
2. Material and methods
3> =>O>EHI : G>P AHNL>AHE=E>O>E =:M: L>M HG )*& LHE:K E>:= :<JNB
LBMBHG K>?>KK:EL :G= :=HIMBHG MH NG=>KLM:G= MA> IKH<>LL>L MAKHN@A
PAB<A )*& LHE:K A:L H<<NKK>= BG :EB?HKGB: 0A>G P> =>O>EHI @K:=B>GM
;HHLM>= .:G=HF #HK>LM FH=>EL 4$ 78 MH IK>=B<M : <EB>GM’L E>:= LM:
MNL :G= MA>BK EBD>EBAHH= MH K>?>K LHE:K MH LHF>HG> BG MA>BK LH<B:E G>MPHKD
>@ :<JN:BGM:G<> G>B@A;HK K>E:MBO> ?KB>G= <HPHKD>K 0A> LMN=R BL
@KHNG=>= BG MPH IK:<MB<:E FHMBO:MBHGL B PA:M <:G P> E>:KG ?KHF :EB
?HKGB:’L )*& LHE:K IKH@K:F BFIE>F>GM:MBHG MH BG?HKF >QI:G=>= )*& =>
IEHRF>GM BG HMA>K @>H@K:IAB>L BB <:G IK>=B<MBO> FH=>EL ;> IK:<MB
<:EER NL>= MH BFIKHO> )*& IKH@K:F HI>K:MBHGL
2.1. Data
,NK AHNL>AHE=E>O>E =:M: L>M BL =>O>EHI>= ?KHF : <HF;BG:MBHG H?
L>O>K:E IKHIKB>M:KR :G= IN;EB< =:M: L>ML 0A> <HK> =:M: L>M BL : <NLMHF>K
K>E:MBHGLABI F:G:@>F>GM  .* =:M:;:L> <HFIKBLBG@ :EE E>:=L <EB>GML
:G= LRLM>F BGLM:EEL $.&! EM>KG:MBO>L BGM>K:<M>= PBMA ?KHF  MH
 BG :EB?HKGB: 0A> .* =:M:;:L> :ELH :EEHPL NL MH <HGLMKN<M MA>
=:M> H? <K>:MBHG :G= LHNK<> H? >:<A E>:= :G= MA>BK HNM<HF>L B> BGLM:EE
HK GHM #HK E>:=L MA:M <HGO>KM MH <EB>GML :G= IKHOB=> K>?>KK:EL MA> =:M:
;:L> IKHOB=>L =:M> EH<:MBHGL H? K>?>KK>K :G= K>?>K>> :G= HMA>K >E>F>GML
H? MA> =R:= :L>= HG MA>BK EH<:MBHGL :G= =:M>L :==BMBHG:E BG?HKF:MBHG
:;HNM MA> E>:=L :G= <EB>GML :K> :O:BE:;E> :M MA> MK:<ME>O>E BG<EN=BG@ =>
FH@K:IAB<L LH<BH><HGHFB< ?:<MHKL >GOBKHGF>GM:E BG=B<:MHKL :G=
IKHQBFBMR MH HMA>K LHE:K BGLM:EE:MBHGL
0A> =:M: L>M H??>KL : NGBJN>ER <HFIK>A>GLBO> OB>P H? EHPBG<HF>
LHE:K :=HIM>= BG :EB?HKGB: MH =:M> K>IK>L>GMBG@  H? :EE )*& LRLM>FL
BGLM:EE>= BG :EB?HKGB: MAKHN@A  BG<EN=BG@  H? :EB?HKGB: /HE:K
&GBMB:MBO>’L //% IKH@K:F BGLM:EE:MBHGL :G=  H? $K>>GAHNL> $:L .>
=N<MBHG #NG= IKH@K:F BGLM:EE:MBHGL 0PH =BLMBG<M :LI><ML H? MA> =:M:L>M
:K> BML L<:E>—PBMA G>:KER  E>:=L :G=  BGLM:EE:MBHGL ;R OHE
NF> BM >Q<>>=L :GR HMA>K LM:M> HK EH<:E )*& IKH@K:F BG MA> 1GBM>=
/M:M>L +>QM $.&! EM>KG:MBO>L’KHE> :L MA> LHE> :=FBGBLMK:MHK H? MA>
)*& IKH@K:F ?HK MA> IK>OBHNL =><:=> :EEHPL NL MH :G:ERS> :EE BGMK:
IKH@K:F K>?>KK:EL ><:NL> MA> =:M:;:L> BG<EN=>L I>KLHG:E B=>GMBW:;E>
BG?HKF:MBHG P> ?HEEHP %NF:G /N;C><ML IKHMH<HE :IIKHO>= ;R HNK &GLMB
MNMBHG:E .>OB>P H:K= LN<A :L :GHGRFBSBG@ MA> =:M: :G= IKH<>LLBG@ MA>
=:M: HGER HG L><NK>= ?:<BEBMB>L HGL>GM ?HK =:M: <HEE><M>= ;R $.&! E
M>KG:MBO>L MH ;> NL>= BG IKH@K:F >O:EN:MBHG :G= K>L>:K<A BL I:KM H? MA>
<EB>GM :@K>>F>GM
3> =BLMBG@NBLA>= ?>:MNK>L ;:L>= HG PA>MA>K MA>R :K> ;:L>= HG IKH
IKB>M:KR BG?HKF:MBHG :G= MANL F:R ;> FHK> O:EN:;E> BG BG<K>:LBG@ IK>
=B<MBHG HK ;:L>= HG IN;EB< BG?HKF:MBHG >@ <A:K:<M>KBLMB<L H? MA> <>G
LNL MK:<M MA> BG=BOB=N:E K>LB=>L BG KHNMBG>ER NL>= BG HMA>K LMN=B>L H? LH
E:K NIM:D> 0A> ?HKF>K FB@AM ;> FHK> IK>=B<MBO> H? :G BG=BOB=N:E’L ;>
A:OBHK LBG<> MA>R :K> LI><BW< MAHN@A :K> A:K=>K B? GHM BFIHLLB;E> ?HK :G
BGLM:EE>K MH =>M>KFBG> IK><HGM:<M PBMA MA> AHNL>AHE= &G <HGMK:LM MK:<M
E>O>E O:KB:;E>L :K> IN;EB< :G= A:O> : EHP>K ;NK=>G MH <HEE><M
&G MA> G>QM LN;L><MBHGL P> =>L<KB;> MA> =:M: L>M BG =>M:BE /><MBHG
 =>L<KB;>L MA> <HK> =:M: ?KHF MA> .* :G= MA> IKH<>LLBG@ BG
OHEO>= BG =>O>EHIBG@ =:M: L>ML MA:M =>M:BE E>:=L K>?>KK>KL :G= MA>BK K>
LI><MBO> :MMKB;NM>L /><MBHG  =>L<KB;>L MA> ?>:MNK>L ?KHF HMA>K =:M:
L>ML MA:M :K> :MMKB;NM>= MH MA> E>:=L :G= K>?>KK>KL .>:=>KL <:G NL> 0:;E>
?HK : LNFF:KR H? EBLM H? ?>:MNK>L :G= MA>BK LHNK<>L :G= MA>
/NIIE>F>GM:KR &G?HKF:MBHG ?HK MA> ?NEE EBLM H? ?>:MNK>L :G= MA>BK LHNK<>L
0A> IKBO:M> G:MNK> H? MA> =:M: :G= AB@A KBLD H? B=>GMBW<:MBHG IK>O>GM NL
?KHF IN;EBLABG@ MA> =:M:L>M %HP>O>K K>L>:K<A>KL BGM>K>LM>= BG :<<>LL
BG@ MA> =:M: LAHNE= <HGM:<M MA> :NMAHKL HG : <:L>;R<:L> ;:LBL
2.1.1. Household-level data from the CRM
0A> .* =:M: ?KHF $.&! :EM>KG:MBO>L <HGLBLML H? MAK>> =:M: L>ML
:;HNM AHNL>AHE=L :M =B??>K>GM LM:@>L BG MA> L:E>L IBI>EBG> 0A> Leads
=:M: L>M <HGM:BGL <HGM:<M BG?HKF:MBHG :;HNM :EE AHNL>AHE=L MA:M :K> IH
Table 1
/NFF:KR H? ?>:MNK>L NL>= BG FH=>EL <E:LLBW>= ;R MA>BK LHNK<> 0A>K> :K> 
?>:MNK>L BG MA> K>?>KK:E FH=>E :G=  BG MA> EHLM E>:= FH=>E  EBLM H? ?>:MNK>L
:G= MA>BK =>L<KBIMBHGL BL :O:BE:;E> BG MA> LNIIE>F>GM:KR BG?HKF:MBHG
-KHIKB>MR =:M: ?KHF $.&!
:EM>KG:MBO>L :G= 0K:<DBG@ MA>
/NG =:M: L>M
-N;EB<ER :O:BE:;E> MK:<ME>O>E =:M: :==>= MH MA> =:M:
L>M ;:L>= HG EH<:MBHG H? AHNL>AHE=
Demographics: SolarForest features: CalEnviroScreen
criteria:
@> $BGB BG=>Q Pollution Exposure:
GGN:E BG<HF> -HINE:MBHG =>GLBMR ,SHG>
$>G=>K .:<>>MAGB<BMR -* 
%HNL>AHE= LBS> @> !B>L>E -*
&GM>KG>M <<>LL ,<<NI:MBHG !KBGDBG@ P:M>K
MAK>:ML
):G@N:@> NL>= BG AHNL>AHE= 0K:GLIHKM:MBHG ->LMB<B=>L
.:<>"MAGB<BMR 0K:O>E 0BF> 0HQB< K>E>:L>L
->K<>GM *& MAK>LAHE=
   
*&
%>:EMA BGLNK:G<> 0K:?W<
!BO>KLBMR /BFILHG’L BG=>Q
System characteristics: O>K:@> >E><MKB<BMR K>M:BE K:M>
"QI><M>= :GGN:E IKH=N<MBHG
D3A 
*>=B:G AHF> O:EN> Environmental
Effects:
GGN:E >E><MKB< NL:@> D3A

%>:MBG@ ?N>EL E>:GNI LBM>L
EBF:M> A>:MBG@<HHEBG@
=>@K>> =:RL =:BER LHE:K
BGLHE:MBHG
$KHNG=P:M>K
MAK>:ML
Installation base: %:S:K=HNL P:LM>
$.&! EM>KG:MBO>L <EB>GML REPLICA features: &FI:BK>= P:M>K
;H=B>L
&GM>K<HGG><M>= LRLM>FL
*:KD>MK:M>
0HM:E )*& LBG@E>?:FBER HPG>K
H<<NIB>= ;NBE=BG@ <HNGM
/HEB= P:LM>
%HNLBG@ OBGM:@>
Tracking the Sun
Database:
1MBEBMR Sensitive
populations:
Spatial bands:   
 FBE>L
)H<:E> MRI> LMAF:
AHLIBM:EBS:MBHGL
Temporal bands: PBMABG
 =:RL H? IK>L<K>>G
 FHGMAL  R>:K :EEMBF>
O>K:@> FHGMAER AHNL>AHE=
>E><MKB<BMR >QI>G=BMNK>L ?HK EHP
O>KR EHP FH=>K:M> BG<HF>
AHNL>AHE=L
)HP ;BKMA P>B@AM
BG?:GML
:K=BHO:L<NE:K
=BL>:L>
Referral base:
HNGM H? K>?>KK:EL IKBHK MH
BGLM:EE:MBHG PBMABG 
   FB
Socioeconomic
factors:
!BLM:G<> MH G>:K>LM K>?>KK>K "=N<:MBHG
)BG@NBLMB< BLHE:MBHG
Installation process: -HO>KMR
!:RL ?KHF IK>L<K>>G MH
BGLM:EE:MBHG
1G>FIEHRF>GM
&GLM:EE:MBHG :?M>K K>?>KK:E
K>P:K= IKH@K:F
%HNLBG@ ;NK=>G
$.&! EM>KG:MBO>L K>@BHG MH
PAB<A : <EB>GM BL :LLB@G>=
Lead source type
#>:MNK>L :K> :O:BE:;E> ?HK K>?>KK:E =:M: L>M HGER
M>GMB:E E>:=L )>:=L MA:M :K> BGM>K>LM>= :G= JN:EBW>= ?HK MA> )*& IKH
@K:F :K> LBFNEM:G>HNLER MK:<D>= BG MA> Contacts :G= Project =:M: L>ML
0A> Contact =:M: L>M <HGM:BGL NI=:M>= <HGM:<M BG?HKF:MBHG H? :EE MA>
JN:EBW>= E>:=L :G= MA> Project =:M: L>M <HGM:BGL BG?HKF:MBHG :;HNM MA>
AHNL>AHE= G><>LL:KR ?HK MA> BGLM:EE:MBHG IKH<>LL >@ LRLM>F LBS>
.* =:M:;:L>L :K> IKHG> MH BKK>@NE:KBMB>L BG<EN=BG@ FBLLBG@ =:M:
=NIEB<:M> K><HK=L :G= GHGLM:G=:K=BS>= W>E=L 3> I>K?HKF>= >QM>GLBO>
=:M: <E>:GBG@ :G= IKH<>LLBG@ BG <HGLNEM:MBHG PBMA $.&! EM>KG:MBO>L
LM:?? MH IK>I:K> MA> =:M: ?HK NL> BG FH=>EBG@ #BKLM P> F>K@>= MA> E>:=L
<HGM:<ML :G= IKHC><M =:M: L>ML MH@>MA>K ;R B=>GMB?RBG@ >:<A AHNL>AHE=
PBMA : @EH;:E NGBJN> B=>GMBW<:MBHG GNF;>K /><HG= P> LM:G=:K=BS>=
K>LIHGL>L ?KHF K>E>O:GM W>E=L BGMH F>:GBG@?NE <:M>@HKB>L MH WM MA> IKH


UNCORRECTED PROOF
B. Sigrin et al. Energy Research & Social Science xxx (xxxx) 102417
C><M’L L<HI> &G MA> <:L> H? =:M: =BL<K>I:G<R B> MPH =B??>K>GM O:EN>L
?HK MA> L:F> W>E= P> =>?:NEM MH MA> FHLM K><>GM >GMKR
0A> =:M:;:L> A:= : E:K@> GNF;>K H? FBLLBG@ O:EN>L :MMKB;NM>= MH
MPH ?:<MHKL #BKLM =:M: BL <HEE><M>= :M O:KBHNL LM:@>L H? MA> L:E>L
IBI>EBG> MA>K>?HK> MA>K> BL : <HKK>E:MBHG ;>MP>>G FBLLBG@ =:M: :G= :=
O:G<>F>GM BG MA> HNMK>:<A IBI>EBG> #HK >Q:FIE> =>FH@K:IAB< BG?HK
F:MBHG BL <HEE><M>= =NKBG@ MA> IK>L<K>>GBG@ IKH<>LL PA>K>:L KHH? LNBM
:;BEBMR :G= >E><MKB<BMR <HGLNFIMBHG <HEE><M>= :M : E:M>K LM:@> 0A> L><
HG= ?:<MHK MA:M @>G>K:M>L FBLLBG@ =:M: BL BG>?W<B>G<R BG =:M: <HEE><MBHG
IKH<>LL BG<EN=BG@ GHGK>LIHGL> MH JN>LMBHGL >KKHKL PA>G NI=:MBG@ :G=
F:BGM:BGBG@ MA> =:M:;:L> :G= >OHENMBHG H? =:M: <HEE><M>= ;R MA> BG
LM:EE>K HO>K MBF> &G MABL <:L> P> BFINM>= F>:G :G= FH=> ?HK JN:GMBM:
MBO> =:M: :G= JN:EBM:MBO><:M>@HKB<:E =:M: K>LI><MBO>ER #HK EH<:MBHG
=>I>G=>GM O:KB:;E>L LN<A :L BG<HF> :G= >E><MKB<BMR <HGLNFIMBHG P>
BFINM>= MK:<ME>O>E >LMBF:M>L ?KHF IN;EB<ER :O:BE:;E> =:M: L>ML LN<A :L
MA> >GLNL :G= 1/ !>I:KMF>GM H? %HNLBG@ :G= 1K;:G !>O>EHIF>GM
%1! 78 .>LIHG=>GML PBMAHNM EH<:MBHG =:M: E>LL MA:G  L:FIE>L
P>K> K>FHO>= ?KHF MA> =:M: L>M
,G> BFIEB<:MBHG H? =:M: <HEE><M>= OB: MA> )*& IKH@K:F BL MA:M :L :
IHM>GMB:E <EB>GM IKH@K>LL>L MAKHN@A MA> <EB>GM :<JNBLBMBHG IBI>EBG> MA>BK
.* K><HK= :<<KN>L FHK> =:M: 0A:M BL LHE:K :=HIM>KL A:O> LB@GB?B
<:GMER FHK> =:M: :MMKB;NM>= MH MA>F MA:G GHG:=HIM>KL PAB<A :??><ML
MA> ?>:MNK>L MA:M <HNE= ;> NL>= MH IK>=B<M :=HIMBHG IKHI>GLBMR ><:NL>
H? MABL :LRFF>MKR P> <AHL> MH IK>=B<M : JN:EBW>= E>:=’L IKHI>GLBMR MH
;> EHLM BGLM>:= H? MA>BK IKHI>GLBMR MH BGLM:EE LHE:K #HK ;HMA MA> EHLM E>:=
:G= K>?>KK:E FH=>EL P> :K> <:K>?NE MH HGER NL> ?>:MNK>L MA:M <HNE= ;>
DGHP:;E> :M MA> MBF> H? IK>=B<MBHG :G= PA>K> MA>K> BL GH K>E:MBHGLABI BG
?>:MNK> :O:BE:;BEBMR MH MA> =>I>G=>GM O:KB:;E>
2.1.2. Relational and tract-level features
0H BFIKHO> IK>=B<MBO> :<<NK:<R H? MA> FH=>E L>O>K:E K>E>O:GM ?>:
MNK>L P>K> >G@BG>>K>= 0A>L> ?>:MNK>L :K> =>KBO>= ;:L>= HG F><A:GBLFL
MA:M A:O> ;>>G LAHPG MH HK ARIHMA>LBS>= MH BFI:<M MA> :=HIMBHG H? )*&
LHE:K
1LBG@ MA> E>:= HK K>?>KK>K’L =:M> H? >G@:@>F>GM :G= EH<:MBHG P>
<HGLMKN<M L>O>K:E ?>:MNK>L MA:M =>L<KB;> LI:MB:E :G= M>FIHK:E IKHQBFBMR
MH HMA>K LHE:K BGLM:EE:MBHGL MH FH=>E I>>K >??><ML 0A>L> K>E:MBHG:E ?>:
MNK>L BG<EN=> BGLM:EE>= ;:L> O:EN>L MA:M BL <HNGML H? BGLM:EEL MA:M H<<NK
PBMABG =B??>K>GM <HF;BG:MBHGL H? LI:MB:E :G= M>FIHK:E ;:G=L /I:MB:E
;:G=L FH=>E>= P>K> K:=BB H?    :G=  FBE>L M>FIHK:E
;:G=L P>K> BGLM:EEL MA:M H<<NKK>= BG MA> IK>OBHNL  =:RL  FHGMAL
 R>:K :G= :EEMBF> 0A> O:EN>L P>K> <E:LLBW>= :L >BMA>K )*& LHE:K HK
F:KD>MK:M> LHE:K /I:MB:E :G= M>FIHK:E ;:G=L P>K> <:E<NE:M>= NLBG@ ?HK
>:<A )*& H;L>KO:MBHG ?KHF : <HF;BG:MBHG H? MA> .* =:M:;:L> :G=
LNIIE>F>GM>= ;R : GHGIN;EB< O>KLBHG H? MA> 0K:<DBG@ MA> /NG =:M: WE>
78
3> NL> MAK>> =:M: L>ML MH <HEE><M MK:<ME>O>E :MMKB;NM>L ?HK >:<A E>:=
:G= K>?>KK:E :E"GOBKH/<K>>G 78 ."-)&  78 :G= /HE:K#HK>LM 78
0:;E>  :E"GOBKH/<K>>G BL : F:IIBG@ MHHE MA:M A>EIL B=>GMB?R F>:
LNK>L H? <HFFNGBMRE>O>E IHEENMBHG >QIHLNK> &M BL :ELH NL>= ;R MA> LM:M>
H? :EB?HKGB: :L : <HGMKB;NMBG@ ?:<MHK BG AHNL>AHE= >EB@B;BEBMR MH I:KMB<B
I:M> BG MA> )*& IKH@K:F *>:LNK>L ?KHF MABL =:M: L>M BG=B<:M> AHP LH
<BH><HGHFB< :G= >GOBKHGF>GM:E <A:K:<M>KBLMB<L FB@AM BGXN>G<> LHE:K
:=HIMBHG 78 0A> +.") ."-)&  =:M: L>M :LL>LL>L ;NBE=BG@ LMH<D LNBM
:;BEBMR ?HK LHE:K :G= <HNGML H? LBG@E>?:FBER EHPBG<HF> HPG>K
H<<NIB>= AHNL>AHE=L :G= BL NL>= MH :LL>LL LHE:K LNBM:;BEBMR ;R MK:<M 78
#BG:EER P> NL> : LN;L>M H? ?>:MNK>L ?KHF MA> 5N >M :E /HE:K#HK>LM FH=>E
78 PAB<A A:L IK>OBHNLER ;>>G NL>= MH LN<<>LL?NEER IK>=B<M LHE:K :=HI
MBHG :M MA> MK:<M E>O>E 3A>K> MK:<ME>O>E ?>:MNK>L :K> K>IK>L>GM>= ;R
FHK> MA:G HG> O:KB:;E> P> HFBM K>=NG=:GM ?>:MNK>L
><:NL> MA> IKBF:KR BGM>G=>= INKIHL> H? MA> FH=>E BL IK>=B<MBHG
GHM >QIE:G:MBHG P> P>K> <:K>?NE MH HGER BG<EN=> ?>:MNK>L MA:M <HNE= ;>
DGHP:;E> :M MA> MBF> H? IK>=B<MBHG HK PA:M BL DGHPG :L “=:M: E>:D:@>”
78 /HF> >Q:FIE>L H? MA>L> BG<EN=>= JN:KM>KER WQ>= >??><ML HK : W>E=
<HKK>LIHG=BG@ MH MA> HNMK>:<A <HHK=BG:MHK :LLB@G>= MH MA> LHE:K <EB>GM
3ABE> ;HMA H? MA>L> ?>:MNK>L :G= HMA>KL PHNE= BFIKHO> MA> FH=>E MK:BG
BG@ WM MA>R >BMA>K PHNE= GHM ;> DGHP:;E> MH : ?NMNK> IK:<MBMBHG>K HK
<:GGHM ;> @>G>K:EBS>=
3> K>?HKFNE:M> MA> <E>:G>= =:M: BGMH MAK>> =:M: L>ML ?HK FH=>EBG@
0A> ,utcome data set BL =>O>EHI>= MH <HG=N<M :G >QIEHK:MHKR :G:ERLBL HG
MA> ?K>JN>G<R H? E>:=L ;R MA>BK LHNK<>L :G= MA>BK HNM<HF> 0A> Referral
data set BL NL>= MH IK>=B<M PA>MA>K :G >QBLMBG@ )*& <EB>GM PBEE K>?>K :G
HMA>K AHNL>AHE= MH :=HIM LHE:K 0A> K>?>KK:E =:M: L>M <HGM:BGL BG?HKF:
MBHG :;HNM :EE $.&! <EB>GML PAH BGLM:EE>= LHE:K BKK>LI><MBO> H? PA>MA>K
MA>R IKHOB=>= K>?>KK:E HK GHM G   #BG:EER MA> Lead loss data
set BL <HGLMKN<M>= MH IK>=B<M PA>MA>K : JN:EBW>= E>:= BL “EHLM”
G   0A> E>:= EHLL =:M: L>M <HGM:BGL BG?HKF:MBHG :;HNM :EE
JN:EBW>= E>:=L BKK>LI><MBO> H? PA>MA>K MA> E>:=L <HGO>KM>= HK GHM
2.2. Lost lead and referral predictive models
0PH BG=>I>G=>GM FH=>EL P>K> =>O>EHI>= MH IK>=B<M MA> HNM<HF>L H?
BGM>K>LM  E>:= EHLL PA>MA>K : JN:EBW>= E>:= =H>L GHM :=HIM LHE:K =>
LIBM> HMA>KPBL> ;>BG@ JN:EBW>= :G=  K>?>KK:EL PA>MA>K :G BGLM:EE>=
<EB>GM IKHOB=>L : K>?>KK:E 3> NL> MK>>;:L>= FH=>EL LI><B?B<:EER LMH
<A:LMB< @K:=B>GM;HHLM>= 4$ K:G=HF ?HK>LML ;><:NL> MA>R LMKBD> :
@HH= ;:E:G<> ;>MP>>G IK>=B<MBO> :<<NK:<R :G= BGM>KIK>M:;BEBMR 0A>
FH=>EL :K> BFIE>F>GM>= NLBG@ 4$HHLM 4$ EB;K:KR 78
HG<>IMN:EER K:G=HF ?HK>LML 78 HI>K:M> ;R =>O>EHIBG@ : =><BLBHG
MK>> MA:M B=>GMBW>L MA> HIMBF:E LIEBMMBG@ IHBGML ?HK >O>KR ?>:MNK> BG MA>
=:M: L>M ;:L>= HG MA> HNM<HF> H? BGM>K>LM .:G=HF ?HK>LML MK:BG FNEMBIE>
=><BLBHG MK>>L HG : K:G=HF LN;L>M H? O:KB:;E>L :O>K:@BG@ MA>BK IK>=B<
MBHGL MH RB>E= : E>LL ;B:L>= FH=>E 0A> LN<<>LLBO> MK>> ;K:G<A>L G:MBO>ER
BG<HKIHK:M> GHGEBG>:K :G= BGM>K:<MBO> O:KB:;E> >??><ML PBMAHNM >QIEB<BMER
LI><B?RBG@ MA>F MAHN@A :M : <HLM H? : =><K>:L> BG BGM>KIK>M:;BEBMR  LMH
<A:LMB< @K:=B>GM ;HHLM>= K:G=HF ?HK>LM BG <HFI:KBLHG MH : K:G=HF ?HK
>LM FH=>E ;NBE=L :G >GL>F;E> H? =><BLBHG MK>>L LN<<>LLBO>ER WM MH IK>
=B<M MA> K>LB=N:EL >KKHKL H? IK>OBHNL FH=>EL MA>K>;R K>=N<BG@ HO>KWM
MBG@ 78 ):M>K P> NL> MA> MK:BG>= FH=>E MH @>G>K:M> /%- O:EN>L 78
:L : F>MAH= H? BGM>KIK>MBG@ =>@K>> :G= =BK><MBHG H? BGXN>G<> ;R MA> <H
O:KB:M>L HG MA> =>I>G=>GM O:KB:;E>L
L : IHBGM H? <HFI:KBLHG MH MA> 4$ FH=>EL P> :ELH =>O>EHI :
+:UO> :R>L FH=>E ?HK MA> E>:= EHLL :G= K>?>KK:E =:M: L>ML BFIE>F>GM>=
BG MA> :K>M EB;K:KR 78  +:UO> :R>L FH=>E <HGLB=>KL >:<A BG=>I>G
=>GM O:KB:;E> ?>:MNK> BG=BOB=N:EER :G= BL FHK> LHIABLMB<:M>= MA:G :
?K>JN>G<RP>B@AM>= K:G=HF @N>LL BG MA:M MA> IK>=B<MBHG BL ;:L>= HG MA>
<HG=BMBHG:E =>I>G=>G<> HG MA> BG=>I>G=>GM O:KB:;E> ?K>JN>G<R %HP
>O>K ;><:NL> +:UO> :R>L FH=>EL =H GHM <HGLB=>K BGM>K:<MBO> M>KFL :G=
:K> IKHG> MH HO>KWMMBG@ MA>R :K> <HGLB=>K>= BG?>KBHK MH ;HHLM>= K:G=HF
?HK>LML 0A> INKIHL> H? >LMBF:MBG@ MA> +:UO> :R>L FH=>EL BL MH NG=>K
LM:G= MA> K>E:MBO> BFIKHO>F>GM H? MA> 4$ F>MAH= MAHN@A MA>K> :K>
F:GR HMA>K FH=>EL >@ ,)/ )H@BM MA:M <HNE= ;> NL>= ;NM P>K> GHM
>O:EN:M>=
2.2.1. Data processing and feature engineering
!:M: IKH<>LLBG@ :G= ?>:MNK> >G@BG>>KBG@ BL MA> IKH<>LL PA>K> MA>
=:M: BL MK:GL?HKF>= BGMH ?>:MNK>L MA:M :K> NL>?NE ?HK =>O>EHIBG@ MA>
FH=>E 0ABL BG<EN=>L <E>:GBG@ MA> =:M:L>ML =>O>EHIBG@ G>P ?>:MNK>L
:G= MK:GL?HKFBG@ >QBLMBG@ ?>:MNK>L BGMH MA> G><>LL:KR ?HKF:M &G /><MBHG
 P> =>L<KB;> LHF> IHKMBHG H? =:M: IKH<>LLBG@ :G= ?>:MNK> >G@BG>>K
BG@ BG<EN=BG@ :==K>LLBG@ FBLLBG@ =:M: :G= =>O>EHIF>GM H? G>P ?>:
MNK>L MA:M =>L<KB;> LI:MB:E :G= M>FIHK:E IKHQBFBMR MH HMA>K LHE:K BGLM:E
E:MBHGL MH FH=>E I>>K >??><ML
#BKLMER :EE <:M>@HKB<:E =:M: :K> HG>AHM >G<H=>= ,G>AHM >G<H=BG@
BL : IKH<>LL PA>K> >:<A ?:<MHK H? : <:M>@HKB<:E O:KB:;E> BL <HGO>KM>= BGMH
: ;BG:KR O:KB:;E> :G= BL : G><>LL:KR ?HKF:M ?HK BFIE>F>GMBG@ <:M>@HKB
<:E ?>:MNK>L BG 4$ FH=>EL /><HG= ?>:MNK>L MA:M A:O> O:KB:G<> <EHL> MH
S>KH :K> K>FHO>= +>:K S>KH O:KB:G<> F>:GL MA:M MA>K> BL O>KR EBMME> BG
?HKF:MBHG BG : O:KB:;E> ;><:NL> MA>R FHLMER <HGLBLM H? : LBG@E> O:EN>
0ABK=ER P> :==K>LL FH=>E FNEMB<HEEBG>:KBMR B> FNEMBIE> AB@AER <HKK>


UNCORRECTED PROOF
B. Sigrin et al. Energy Research & Social Science xxx (xxxx) 102417
E:M>= O:KB:;E>L IKHOB=BG@ LBFBE:K BG?HKF:MBHG MH MA> FH=>E 2:KB:;E>L
PBMA : AB@A <HKK>E:MBHG L<HK> P>K> B=>GMBW>= :G= K>FHO>= &=>GMBW<:
MBHG :G= K>FHO:E H? ?>:MNK>L PBMA G>:K S>KH O:KB:G<> :G= AB@A <HKK>E:
MBHG P:L I>K?HKF>= NLBG@ MA> :K>M I:<D:@> 78 /M:G=:K=BS:MBHG :G=
GHKF:EBS:MBHG ?HK GNF>KB<:E O:KB:;E>L P:L GHM <HG=N<M>= LBG<> MK>>
;:L>= FH=>EL :K> :@GHLMB< MH L<:EBG@ +HM> MA:M MA>L> =:M: IKH<>LLBG@
LM>IL :K> <HG=N<M>= ?HK >:<A L:FIE>= =:M:
2.2.2. Feature selection and hyperparameter tuning
3> >FIEHR L>O>K:E =:M: L<B>G<> ;>LM IK:<MB<>L ?HK =>O>EHIBG@ ;HMA
IK>=B<MBO> FH=>EL #BKLM =:M: BL K:G=HFER LIEBM ;>MP>>G MK:BG
BG@–O:EB=:MBG@ MA> FH=>E  :G= MA> K>LM ?HK M>LMBG@  #>:MNK>L
:K> MA>G LN;L>M ?HK >:<A LI><BW<:MBHG B> IN;EB<HGER =:M: IKBO:M>
HGER :G= :EE ?>:MNK>L /BG<> MA> M:K@>M O:KB:;E> ?HK ;HMA MA> E>:= EHLL
:G= K>?>KK:E FH=>EL P>K> BF;:E:G<>= BG MA> MK:BGBG@ =:M: L>M MA> HO>K
K>IK>L>GM>= <E:LL B> GHGEHLM E>:=L GHGK>?>KK>KL P>K> =HPG L:F
IE>= PBMAHNM K>IE:<>F>GM MH =>O>EHI WO> <E:LL;:E:G<>= MK:BGBG@ =:M:
L>ML 3BMABG >:<A MK:BGBG@ BM>K:MBHG MA> FH=>E I>K?HKFL : K:G=HF WO>
?HE= <KHLLO:EB=:M>= @KB= L>:K<A MH MNG> FH=>E ARI>KI:K:F>M>KL #HK
>:<A LN;L>M H? ?>:MNK>L MA> L:F> ARI>KI:K:F>M>K LI:<> P:L L>:K<A>= MH
B=>GMB?R MA> ;>LM I>K?HKFBG@ FH=>E ?HK MA:M L>M H? ?>:MNK>L
&G 4$ FH=>EL ARI>KI:K:F>M>KL :K> MNG>= MH F:QBFBS> I>K?HK
F:G<> PABE> FBGBFBSBG@ HO>KWMMBG@ 0A> eta HK MA> E>:KGBG@ K:M> IK>
O>GML HO>KWMMBG@ ;R P>B@AMBG@ MA> G>P IK>=B<MBHGL F:=> ?KHF FH=>E
K>LB=N:EL Gamma LI><BW>L MA> FBGBFNF EHLL K>=N<MBHG K>JNBK>= MH
F:D> : ?NKMA>K I:KMBMBHG HG : E>:? GH=> H? MA> MK>> MA> E:K@>K gamma
MA> FHK> <HGL>KO:MBO> MA> FH=>E />O>K:E ARI>KI:K:F>M>KL <HGMKHE MA>
<A:K:<M>KBLMB<L H? MA> ;HHLM>= MK>>L maximum depth =B<M:M>L AHP F:GR
LN<<>LLBO> LIEBML H? MA> =:M: G>P MK>> ;K:G<A>L :K> I>KFBMM>= 3> NMB
EBS>= : K:G=HF @KB= L>:K<A HO>K : IK>=>WG>= LI:<> L>> 0:;E>  3>
:ELH M>LM>= MA> <HFI:K:MBO> I>K?HKF:G<> H? >QI:G=>= :G= K>=N<>= ?>:
MNK> L>ML PBMA ?H<NL HG K>=N<BG@ FH=>E <HEEBG>:KBMR
0A> WG:E FH=>E LI><BW<:MBHG BL =>M>KFBG>= ;R MA> I>K?HKF:G<> H?
MA> FH=>E HG MA> =:M: NL>= MH MK:BG BM LIEBM BGMH WO> ;:E:G<>= ?HE=L :G=
MA> M>LMBG@ AHE=HNM 0H L>E><M : E>LLHO>KWM FH=>E P> <AHL> MA:M PAB<A
FBGBFBS>= MA> @:I ;>MP>>G MA> F>:G MK:BGBG@ I>K?HKF:G<> :G= M>LMBG@
I>K?HKF:G<>
3. Results
,NK K>LNEML ?H<NL HG B NG=>KLM:G=BG@ MA> F><A:GBLFL MAKHN@A
PAB<A )*& LHE:K E>:=L HKB@BG:M> <HGO>KM MH <EB>GML :G= IKHOB=> K>?>K
K:EL :G= BB IK>=B<MBG@ PA>MA>K :G )*& <EB>GM ;><HF>L : EHLM E>:= HK
IKHOB=>L : K>?>KK:E :G= MA> ?>:MNK>L MA:M BG?HKF MA> IK>=B<MBHG 1G=>K
LM:G=BG@ MA>L> F><A:GBLFL IKHOB=>L BFIHKM:GM BGLB@AML MA:M A>EI BF
IKHO> MA> >??><MBO>G>LL H? >QBLMBG@ IKH@K:FL :G= MA> =>LB@G H? ?NMNK>
)*& IKH@K:FL 0A> =:M: L>M NL>= A>K>BG <:G ;> <HGLB=>K>= MH ;> K>IK>
L>GM:MBO> H? MA> )*& LHE:K >QI>KB>G<> BG :EB?HKGB: MAHN@A L>O>K:E
Table 2
)BLM H? ARI>KI:K:F>M>KL BG HNK FH=>E :G= MA>BK L>:K<A LI:<>
%RI>KI:K:F>M>K !>L<KBIMBHG />:K<A /I:<>
>M: )>:KGBG@ K:M> 

G9>LMBF:MHKL +NF;>K H? >LMBF:MHKL   
FBG9L:FIE>L9
LIEBM
*BGBFNF L:FIE>L BG >:<A MK>> LIEBM  
F:Q9=>IMA *:QBFNF =>IMA H? MK>>     
LN;L:FIE> #K:<MBHG H? H;L>KO:MBHGL MH ;> K:G=HFER
L:FIE>= ?HK >:<A MK>>
   
<HEL:FIE>9
;RMK>>
#K:<MBHG H? ?>:MNK>L MH NL> BG >:<A MK>>   
 
@:FF: *BGBFNF EHLL K>=N<MBHG K>JNBK>= MH F:D> :
G>P LIEBM
   
FBG9<ABE=9
P>B@AM
.>JNBK>= FBGBFNF LNF H? P>B@AML H? :EE
H;L>KO:MBHGL BG <ABE=
   
K>WM ->K?HKF:G<> F>:LNK> NL>= MH K>WM FH=>E .,
<:O>:ML LAHNE= ;> <HGLB=>K>= PA>G BGM>KIK>MBG@ MA> =:M: *HLM GHM:;ER
G>:KER :EE  H? <EB>GML BG MA> IKH@K:F K><>BO>= MA>BK LRLM>FL :M GH
<HLM 0ANL MA> =:M: >QIEHK>L =KBO>KL H? LHE:K :=HIMBHG BG=>I>G=>GM H?
><HGHFB< ?:<MHKL ELH MA> )*& IKH@K:F BFIHL>L @>H@K:IAB< AHF>
HPG>KLABI :G= BG<HF>;:L>= <KBM>KB: ?HK IKH@K:F >EB@B;BEBMR PAB<A
FB@AM =B??>K BG HMA>K CNKBL=B<MBHGL
3.1. LMI leads: Sources and outcomes
0A> .* =:M:;:L> <HGM:BG>=  E>:=L ?KHF IKBE  
MA> WKLM //%?NG=>= BGLM:EE:MBHG MH !><>F;>K   ;HNM 
H? MA> E>:=L G   P>K> <HGM:<M>= ;R $.&! HNM H? PAB<A  H?
MA> E>:=L G   A:= @HG> MAKHN@A MA> :<JNBLBMBHG IBI>EBG> :G=
A:= : =>?BGBM> HNM<HF> B> BGLM:EE>= NGJN:EBW>= EHLM PABE> MA> K>
F:BGBG@  H? MA> E>:=L G   P>K> GHM =>WGBMBO>ER
IKH<>LL>= >EHP P> =>L<KB;> MA> IKH<>LL MAKHN@A PAB<A MA> E>:=L :K>
@>G>K:M>= :G= MA>BK K>LI><MBO> HNM<HF>L
0A>K> P>K> L>O>K:E F><A:GBLFL MAKHN@A PAB<A )*& LHE:K E>:=L P>K>
@>G>K:M>= :G= PBMA =B??>K>GM E>O>EL H? >??><MBO>G>LL #B@  0A>L> :K>
 K>?>KK:EL ;R >QBLMBG@ <EB>GML HMA>K BG=BOB=N:EL <HFFNGBMR LNIIHKM
>KL :G= HK@:GBS:MBHGL  E>:=L <HGG><MBG@ PBMA $.&! MAKHN@A P>;
L>:K<A  :=O>KMBL>F>GM BG P>;LBM>L G>PLI:I>KL :G= HMA>K IKBGM :=L
 M:K@>M>= :=L ;R IHLM:E F:BE>KL :G= >F:BEL MH IHM>GMB:EER >EB@B;E> I:K
MB<BI:GML  <:GO:LLBG@ >EB@B;E> G>B@A;HKAHH=L =HHKMH=HHK :G= 
AHE=BG@ ;EH<D I:KMRMRI> LHE:K BGLM:EE:MBHG >O>GML ,? MA>  E>:=L
MA:M A:O> :G HNM<HF> K>?>KK:EL  <HGLMBMNM>= MA> E:K@>LM source of
leads ?HEEHP>= ;R P>; L>:K<A  !B@BM:E :G= IKBGM :=L F:LL F:BE>K
HK >F:BE <:GO:LLBG@ E>:=HKB@BG:MBHG >O>GML EBLM :<JNBLBMBHG :G=
IAHG> LHEB<BM:MBHG :G= HMA>K F>MAH=L <HEE><MBO>ER <HGLMBMNM>L : JN:KM>K
BG MHM:E 0A> K>F:BGBG@  H? MA> E>:=L =B= GHM A:O> : K><HK=>= E>:=
LHNK<>
.>?>KK:EL P>K> :ELH one H? MA> FHLM >?W<B>GM LHNK<>L H? E>:=L PA>K>
 H? :EE K>?>KK:EL E>= MH BGLM:EEL—MHII>= ;R =HHKMH=HHK <:GO:LLBG@
:G= E>:= HKB@BG:MBHG >O>GML  E>:=L PBMAHNM : EBLM>= LHNK<>
‘GHG>’ HK ‘HMA>K’LHNK<>L  0A>L> :K> ?HEEHP>= ;R M:K@>M>= F:BE
>F:BE  :G= IAHG> <:EE  !B@BM:E :G= IKBGM :=L  P>;
L>:K<A  :G= EBLM :<JNBLBMBHG  P>K> MA> E>:LM >?W<B>GM E>:=
LHNK<>L ,O>K:EE  H? :EE BGLM:EEL P>K> K>?>KK>=  H? MA> BGLM:EEL
Fig. 1. /HNK<>L :G= ?K>JN>G<R H? HNM<HF>L H? )*& E>:=L 0A> <HNGML BG MA>
W@NK> K>?>K MH MA> GNF;>K H? E>:=L HKB@BG:MBG@ ?KHF >:<A LHNK<> :G= MA>BK
>O>GMN:E HNM<HF> 0A> :GGHM:MBHG H? I>K<>GM:@>L BG MA> W@NK> K>?>K MH MA>
IKHIHKMBHG ?HK : @BO>G E>:= LHNK<> MA:M K>LNEM>= BG : LHE:K BGLM:EE:MBHG GHM
MA>G I>K<>GM H? E>:=L HO>K:EE


UNCORRECTED PROOF
B. Sigrin et al. Energy Research & Social Science xxx (xxxx) 102417
=B= GHM A:O> : K><HK=>= LHNK<> ‘GHG>’ :G= GH HMA>K LHNK<> <HG
MKB;NM>= MH FHK> MA:G  H? MA> MHM:E BGLM:EEL F:DBG@ K>?>KK:EL MA> FHLM
:MMK:<MBO> E>:= LHNK<> ?HK )*& LHE:K +HM:;ER K>?>KK:EL IKHOB=> : LBFBE:K
KHE> BG F:KD>MK:M> LHE:K E>:= @>G>K:MBHG PA>K> MA>R :K> >LMBF:M>= MH
<HGLMBMNM> ;HMA MA> E:K@>LM LHNK<>  H? BGLM:EEL :G= A:O> MA> EHP>LM
:LLH<B:M>= <NLMHF>K :<JNBLBMBHG <HLM 78
3.2. LMI acquisition pipeline
-KHLI><MBO> )*& <EB>GML ?HEEHP : <NLMHF>K :<JNBLBMBHG IBI>EBG> LBFB
E:K MH MA:M H? F:KD>MK:M> LHE:K =BO>K@BG@ IKBF:KBER MH =>M>KFBG> MA>BK
IKH@K:F >EB@B;BEBMR K:MA>K MA:G :;BEBMR MH I:R ?HK LHE:K )>:=L LM:KM PBMA
: IK>L<K>>GBG@ IKH<>LL MH =>M>KFBG> MA>BK IKH@K:F >EB@B;BEBMR ?HEEHP>=
;R LN;FBMMBG@ :G :IIEB<:MBHG +>QM BGLM:EE>KL <HFIE>M> :G BGI>KLHG LBM>
OBLBM MH >O:EN:M> M><AGB<:E LNBM:;BEBMR =>O>EHI : M>GM:MBO> LRLM>F =>LB@G
:G= NEMBF:M>ER BG=B<:M> :IIKHO:E ?HK BGLM:EE:MBHG HK GHM #B@  LAHPL :M
PAB<A IHBGML :G= ?HK PA:M K>:LHGL =NKBG@ MA> L<K>>GBG@ :G= :IIEB<:
MBHG IKH<>LL : E>:= >QBM>= MA> <EB>GM IBI>EBG> 0ABL W@NK> HFBML :GR E>:=L
MA:M P>K> GHM <HGM:<M>= ;R $.&!
 ?>P BGLB@AML >F>K@> ?KHF MA> :G:ERLBL H? MA> E>:= :<JNBLBMBHG
IBI>EBG> #BKLM : E:K@> ?K:<MBHG H? MA> E>:=L MA> IK:<MBMBHG>K <HGM:<M>=
=B= GHM K><>BO> LHE:K  0A> MPH E:K@>LM K>:LHGL P>K> BG>EB@B;BEBMR
MH I:KMB<BI:M> BG MA> IKH@K:F =N> MH @>H@K:IAB< BG>EB@B;BEBMR  H? :EE
E>:=L PBMA K>LHEO>= LM:MNL :G= =BLBGM>K>LM BG LHE:K HK EHLBG@ <HGM:<M
“EHLM”  M MA> MBF> H? :G:ERLBL :KHNG=  H? MA> E>:=L :K>
LMBEE BG MA> :<JNBLBMBHG IBI>EBG> ?HK ?NKMA>K IKH<>LLBG@ “->G=BG@3:BM
EBLM” :G= P>K> GHM :G:ERS>= =N> MH MA>BK NGK>LHEO>= LM:MNL
IIKHQBF:M>ER  BG  EHLM E>:=L  P>K> =>>F>= >EB@B;E> ?HK LH
E:K =NKBG@ IK>L<K>>GBG@ PAB<A BFIEB>L O:EN:;E> E>:=L P>K> EHLM 1G=>K
LM:G=BG@ K>:LHGL ;>ABG= EHLBG@ <HGM:<M :?M>K BGBMB:E BGM>K>LM PHNE= A>EI
BFIKHO> <HGO>KLBHG K:M>L H? MA> IKH@K:F 3ABE> MA> HMA>K ;:KKB>KL MH
:=HIMBHG :K> KHHM>= BG ?>:MNK>L BGA>K>GM MH IKH@K:F =>LB@G HK <HG=BMBHG
H? : @BO>G ;NBE=BG@ MA> <:NL>L ?HK EHLM E>:=L :K> E>LL :II:K>GM 0A>R F:R
;> HPBG@ MH FBLMKNLM H? NMBEBMB>L <HG<>KGL :;HNM EHG@M>KF F:BGM>G:G<>
>QI>GL>L HK NG<>KM:BGMR HO>K MA> ;>G>WML H? MA> IKH@K:F 78
0A> .* IKHOB=>= =>M:BE>= BG?HKF:MBHG ?HK =BLJN:EB?RBG@ : E>:=
PAB<A P>K> @KHNI>= :L  BG>EB@B;E> @>H@K:IAR—E>:= K>LB=>= BG : @>
H@K:IAR BG>EB@B;E> ?HK I:KMB<BI:MBHG BG MA> )*& LHE:K IKH@K:F  LRL
M>F =>LB@G <HGLMK:BGML >@ NGLNBM:;E> KHH? :K>:  AHNL>AHE= A:= BG
<HF> AB@A>K MA:G IKH@K:F EBFBM  NG:O:BE:;E> BG<>G
Fig. 2. )*& E>:= :<JNBLBMBHG IBI>EBG> OBLN:EBS>= :L : /:GD>R =B:@K:F 0A>
IBI>EBG> <:M>@HKBS>L E>:=L PAH BGLM:EE>= LHE:K P>K> “EHLM”=NKBG@ MA> IKH<>LL
P:BMEBLM>= HK I>G=BG@ :G= MAHL> <:L>L MA:M P>K> NGJN:EBW>= ?HK L>O>K:E K>:
LHGL -K>L<K>>G JN:EBW>= E>:=L :K> E>:=L MA:M P>K> =>>F>= JN:EBW>= ;:L>= HG
:G BGBMB:E :IIEB<:MBHG MH MA> )*& IKH@K:F :G= IKH<>>= ?HK ?NKMA>K <HGLB=>K:MBHG
MBO>—:IIEB<:MBHG H<<NKK>= :?M>K MA> IKH@K:F A:= KNG HNM H? ?NG=BG@
 MA> E>:= P:L GHM : AHF>HPG>K :G=  FBL<>EE:G>HNL HMA>K K>:LHGL
LN<A :L :EK>:=R HPBG@ : LHE:K LRLM>F 0AHN@A K>?>KK:EL P>K> : E:K@>
LHNK<> H? E>:=L :G= NEMBF:M>ER BGLM:EEL GHM :EE K>?>KK:EL P>K> LN<<>LL?NE
#HK >Q:FIE> : <EB>GM <HNE= K>?>K : E>:= MA:M K>LB=>L BG :G BG>EB@B;E> >G
LNL MK:<M HK PAHL> AHF> P:L =>>= K>LMKB<M>= ?HK LHE:K
"EB@B;BEBMR MH I:KMB<BI:M> BG :EB?HKGB:’L )*& LHE:K IKH@K:F P:L MA>
E:K@>LM LBG@E> =KBO>K H? E>:= =BLJN:EBW<:MBHG 0ABL LI:GL @>H@K:IAB< BG>E
B@B;BEBMR  AB@A BG<HF>  :G= GHM ;>BG@ : AHF>HPG>K 
0A> :EB?HKGB: //% IKH@K:F K>JNBK>L MA:M I:KMB<BI:GML B HPG :G=
EBO> BG MA>BK AHF> BB A:O> :G BG<HF> ;>EHP  H? *& :G= BBB MA:M
MABL AHF> ;> =>>=K>LMKB<M>= EHPBG<HF> AHNLBG@ HK EH<:M>= BG : %1!
=>LB@G:M>= <>GLNL MK:<M BG<EN=BG@ "GM>KIKBL> 6HG>L :G= 0:K@>M>= "<H
GHFB< K>:L /RLM>F =>LB@G <HGLMK:BGML  <HGLMBMNM>= MA> L><HG=
E:K@>LM <:M>@HKR H? =BLJN:EBW>= E>:=L ,? MA>L> MA> F:CHKBMR  P>K>
=BLJN:EBW>= =N> :G HE= KHH? ?HEEHP>= ;R <H=> BLLN>L  LHE:K LA:=
BG@  :G= KHH? MRI>  ;HNM  H? :EE JN:EBW>= E>:=L P>K> NG
JN:EBW>= =N> MH NG:O:BE:;E> BG<>GMBO> B> MA> IKH@K:F ?NG=BG@ P:L
>QA:NLM>=
3.3. Prediction models
&FIKHOBG@ MA> IK>=B<MBHG H? E>:= <HGO>KLBHG :G= K>?>KK:EL A:L LN;
LM:GMB:E BFIEB<:MBHGL ?HK IK:<MBMBHG>KL ;><:NL> BM <:G EHP>K MA>BK <NL
MHF>K :<JNBLBMBHG <HLML PAB<A A:L ;HMA IKBO:M> :G= LH<B:E ;>G>WML
$BO>G MA> K:K> H<<NKK>G<> H? HNK M:K@>M <E:LL>L  H? JN:EBW>= E>:=L
:K> EHLM :G=  H? <EB>GML IKHOB=> K>?>KK:EL P> <HFI:K> FH=>E I>K
?HKF:G<> IKBF:KBER NLBG@ balanced accuracy, : F>MKB< MA:M <HGLB=>KL MA>
FH=>E’L I>K?HKF:G<> BG IK>=B<MBG@ ;HMA MA> IHLBMBO> :G= G>@:MBO> <E:LL
:E:G<>= :<<NK:<R BL =>WG>= :L MA> :KBMAF>MB< F>:G H? MA> FH=>E L>GLB
MBOBMR :G= LI><BW<BMR  K:G=HF @N>LL FH=>E A:L : ;:E:G<>= :<<NK:<R
H?  #HK >Q:FIE> IK>=B<MBG@ :EE HNM<HF>L MH ;> BG MA> IHLBMBO> <E:LL
A:L : ;:E:G<>= :<<NK:<R H?  ;><:NL>  H? MA> MKN> IHLBMBO>L :K>
B=>GMBW>= ;NM  H? MA> MKN> G>@:MBO>L R : LBFBE:K EH@B< : K:G=HF
@N>LL FH=>E P>B@AM>= HG MA> IHLBMBO> :G= G>@:MBO> <E:LL ?K>JN>G<B>L
:ELH A:L : ;:E:G<>= :<<NK:<R H?  0ANL :  ;:E:G<>= :<<NK:<R
K>IK>L>GML MA> XHHK H? NL>?NE IK>=B<MBO> FH=>EL
&FIKHO>F>GML BG :<<NK:<R H? IK>=B<MBHG EHP>K MA> <HLM H? IKH@K:F
:=FBGBLMK:MBHG OB: K>=N<BG@ MA> >??HKM G>>=>= MH :<JNBK> IKH@K:F I:K
MB<BI:GML E>:= EHLL HK MH :<JNBK> G>P E>:=L K>?>KK:EL HGLB=>K MA> ?HE
EHPBG@ BEENLMK:MBO> >Q:FIE> ?HK : FH=>E MA:M IK>=B<ML K>?>KK:EL PBMA :
L>GLBMBOBMR H?  :G= LI><BW<BMR H?  #B@  :G= PBMA K>?>KK:E
IK>O:E>G<> H?  &G MABL >Q:FIE> ?HK MA> GNEE <:L> MA> IK:<MBMBHG>K
PHNE= K>JNBK> <HGM:<MBG@  <EB>GML MH IKHOB=> K>?>KK:EL MH NEMB
F:M>ER K><>BO>  LN<<>LL?NE K>?>KK:EL &G <HGMK:LM MA> IK:<MBMBHG>K
<HNE= NL> MA> IK>=B<MBO> FH=>E MH BG?>K MA:M  <EB>GML FB@AM IKHOB=> :
K>?>KK:E :G=  FB@AM GHM ,? MA>  BG?>KK>= K>?>KK>KL  :K> :<MN
:EER K>?>KK>KL MKN> IHLBMBO>L :G=  :K> GHM ?:EL> IHLBMBO> ,? MA> 
BG?>KK>= GHGK>?>KK>KL  PBEE GHM IKHOB=> : K>?>KK:E MKN> G>@:MBO>
:G=  PHNE= A:O> ?:EL> G>@:MBO> 0:D>G MH@>MA>K MA> IK:<MBMBHG>K
PHNE= K>JNBK>  H? LM:?? MBF>  MH :<JNBK>  H? K>?>K
K>KL  %HP>O>K NL> H? : IK>=B<MBO> FH=>E BG MABL <HGM>QM G><
>LL:KBER F>:GL =BLK>@:K=BG@ LHF> E>:=L MA:M :K> IK>=B<M>= MH A:O> G>@:
MBO> HNM<HF>L PAB<A <HNE= A:O> >JNBMR BFIEB<:MBHGL ;NM PBMABG MA>
)*& IHINE:MBHG
HMA FH=>EL L:P : LN;LM:GMB:E BFIKHO>F>GM BG MA> IK>=B<MBHG H?
<EB>GML MA:M IKHOB=>= K>?>KK:EL HK ;><:F> EHLM E>:=L #B@  ,O>K:EE MA>
EHLM E>:= FH=>E  A:= : AB@A>K ;:E:G<>= :<<NK:<R MA:G MA> K>?>KK:E
FH=>E  :G= ;HMA ;>G>WM>= ?KHF BG<ENLBHG H? IKHIKB>M:KR =:M:
*H=>E L>GLBMBOBMR F>:LNK>L MA> IKHIHKMBHG H? IHLBMBO>L MA:M :K> <HKK><MER
B=>GMBW>= >@ MA> I>K<>GM:@> H? K>?>KK>KL MA:M :K> <HKK><MER B=>GMBW>= :L IKH
OB=BG@ : K>?>KK:E *H=>E LI><BW<BMR BL MA> BGO>KL> MA> IKHIHKMBHG H? G>@:MBO>L
MA:M :K> <HKK><MER B=>GMBW>= >@ GHGK>?>KKBG@ <EB>GML B=>GMBW>= :L LN<A -K>O:
E>G<> BL MA> H;L>KO>= ?K>JN>G<R H? MA> M:K@>M O:KB:;E> BG MA> =:M:


UNCORRECTED PROOF
B. Sigrin et al. Energy Research & Social Science xxx (xxxx) 102417
Fig. 3. #B<MBMBHNL >Q:FIE> =>FHGLMK:MBG@ :IIEB<:MBHG H? IK>=B<MBO> FH=>E ?K:F>
PHKD MH BFIKHO> HI>K:MBHG:E >?W<B>G<R BG IK>=B<MBG@ )*& K>?>KK:EL :FHG@
<EB>GML
Fig. 4. :E:G<>= :<<NK:<R ?HK E>:= EHLL :G= K>?>KK:E FH=>EL NLBG@ IN;EB<HGER
IKBO:M>HGER HK IKBO:M> :G= IN;EB< =:M: MH MK:BG FH=>EL 0A> .:G=HF #HK>LM
FH=>E NGLNKIKBLBG@ER :<AB>O>L ;>MM>K I>K?HKF:G<> MA:G MA> +:UO> :R>L
:<KHLL :EE <HGW@NK:MBHGL  K:G=HF @N>LL FH=>E A:L : ;:E:G<>= :<<NK:<R H?

 EHLM E>:=  K>?>KK:E O>KLNL IN;EB<ER :O:BE:;E> =:M: HGER &G
:EE MA> FH=>EL MK:BG>= MA> LI><BW<BMR P:L AB@A>K MA:G MA> L>GLBMBOBMR
+>QM P> IKHOB=> :==BMBHG:E =>M:BEL H? MA> FH=>E WM >QIE:G:MBHG H?
?>:MNK> BFIHKM:G<> :G= =BK><MBHG H? BGXN>G<> :G= BGM>KIK>M:MBHG H? MA>
FH=>E NL>?NEG>LL B? :IIEB>= BG <HGM>QM
3.3.1. Lost lead model
L GHM>= >:KEB>K =>LIBM> IHM>GMB:EER K><>BOBG@ : ?K>> LHE:K LRLM>F
HO>K  H? :EE JN:EBW>= )*& E>:=L P>K> “EHLM”=N> MH E:<D H? BGM>K>LM HK
=KHI H?? 0ABL LN@@>LML MA:M BFIKHO>F>GML MH MA> IK>=B<MBHG H? E>:= HNM
<HF>L <HNE= K>=N<> :G EHPBG<HF> LHE:K IKH@K:F’L HI>K:MBHG:E <HLML
#HK >Q:FIE> BFIKHO>= FH=>EL :EEHP IK:<MBMBHG>KL MH >BMA>K ?H<NL K>
LHNK<>L HG AB@A IKHI>GLBMR E>:=L HK <HGO>KL>ER INM :==BMBHG:E >??HKM MH
<HGO>KM IHM>GMB:E EHLM E>:=L 3BMA :G BFIKHO>= IK>=B<MBHG H? : E>:=’L
IKHI>GLBMR : IK:<MBMBHG>K FB@AM :IIER =B??>K>GM F:KD>MBG@ :G= HNMK>:<A
LMK:M>@B>L MH =B??>K>GM L>@F>GML 0AHN@A MABL BL :EK>:=R : <HFFHG IK:<
MB<> BG MA> F:KD>MK:M> LHE:K BG=NLMKR LN<A : LMK:M>@R <HNE= BGMKH=N<>
>MAB<:E BLLN>L K>@:K=BG@ =BL<KBFBG:MBHG HK >JNBM:;E> :<<>LL MH MA> )*&
IKH@K:F
,NK IK>?>KK>= LI><BW<:MBHG MA> 4$ FH=>E NLBG@ IKBO:M>  IN;EB<
=:M: IKHOB=>= : LN;LM:GMB:E BFIKHO>F>GM BG MA> :<<NK:<R  HO>K
: K:G=HF @N>LL 0:;E>  0A> FH=>E P:L :ELH FHK> :<<NK:M> MA:G NL
BG@ IN;EB<HGER =:M: :G= :L <HFI:K>= MH : +:UO> :R>L FH=>E 1LBG@ MA>
?K:F>PHKD =>O>EHI>= :;HO> /><MBHG  :G= PBMAHNM : IK>=B<MBO>
FH=>E MA> IK:<MBMBHG>K PHNE= IKH<>LL  E>:=L MH A:O>  EHLM :G=
 K>F:BGBG@ %HP>O>K MA> 4$EE FH=>E L>GLBMBOBMR :G= LI><BW<BMR
BFIER MA:M @BO>G  E>:=L  :K> BG?>KK>= MH ;> EHLM :G=  GHM
,? MA>  BG?>KK>= GHM MH ;> EHLM E>:=L  PHNE= IKH<>>= MH MA> G>QM
LM>I H? >O:EN:MBHG :G=  PBEE ;> EHLM "??><MBO>ER MABL F>:GL MA:M MA>
IK:<MBMBHG>K PHNE= K>JNBK>  H? LM:?? MBF>  MH :<JNBK>
Table 3
*>MKB<L ?HK EHLM E>:= FH=>E ;R FH=>E :G= =:M: MRI> K>IHKM>= ?HK MA> M>LM =:M:
L>M
*H=>E
0RI>
!:M:
0RI>
-K>O:E>G<> />GLBMBOBMR /I><B?B<BMR -K><BLBHG # :E:G<>=
<<NK:<R
4$ -N;EB<      
EE     
+:UO>
:R>L
-N;EB<     
EE     
 H? MA> E>:=L  HK :  BG<K>:L> BG E>:=L @>G>K:MBHG >?W
<B>G<R
-K>=B<MBO> FH=>EL :K> MK:=BMBHG:EER NG=>KLMHH= :L H??>KBG@ EBMME> >Q
IE:G:MHKR IHP>K "GL>F;E> F>MAH=L BG <HGLMKN<MBG@ :G= <HF;BGBG@
L>O>K:E ANG=K>= >LMBF:MHKL WM MH I:KMB<NE:K HNM<HF> @>G>K:EER MK:=> BG
M>KIK>M:;BEBMR ?HK :<<NK:<R 78 0AHN@A IK>=B<MBHG BL HNK NEMBF:M>
@H:E MH BFIKHO> FH=>E BGM>KIK>M:;BEBMR P> =>O>EHI /%- O:EN>L
/%:IE>R ==BMBO> >Q-E:G:MBHG 78 HG MA> MK:BG>= FH=>E /%- BL :
@:F>MA>HK>MB< ?K:F>PHKD ?HK >QIE:BGBG@ HNMINML H? F:<ABG> E>:KGBG@
FH=>EL :G= PHKDL ;R :LLB@GBG@ :G BFIHKM:G<> O:EN> ?HK : LI><BW< IK>
=B<MBHG 78 +>QM MA> /%- O:EN>L :K> <HGO>KM>= ?KHF EH@H==L MH BF
I:<M HG IKH;:;BEBMR 0A>L> O:EN>L :K> MA>G IEHMM>= BG : ?>:MNK> BFIHK
M:G<> IEHM #B@  PAB<A LAHPL MA> K:GD>= F:@GBMN=> H? BFI:<M HG MA>
HNM<HF> O:KB:;E> :L P>EE :L : <HG=BMBHG:E =>I>G=>G<> IEHM #B@ 
PAB<A LAHPL AHP NGBO:KB:M> <A:G@>L BG : ?>:MNK> O:EN> BFI:<ML MA> IK>
=B<MBHG /I><B?B<:EER PBMABG MA> <HG=BMBHG:E =>I>G=>G<> IEHM >:<A =HM
K>IK>L>GML :G H;L>KO:MBHG MA> Q:QBL BML O:EN> :G= MA> R:QBL MA> BFI:<M
HG IK>=B<M>= IKH;:;BEBMR B> MA> HO>K:EE IHLBMBO> HK G>@:MBO> BFI:<M HG
MA> IK>=B<MBHG  ),"// <NKO> WM BL IKHOB=>= ?HK <HGMBGNHNL O:KB:;E>L
MH OBLN:EBS> MA> =BK><MBHG:E BGXN>G<> H? >:<A H? MA> MHI ?>:MNK>L
#B@  LAHPL MA> ?>:MNK> BFIHKM:G<> ?HK MA> )HLM )>:= 4$EE FH=>E
?HK MA> MHI  O:KB:;E>L :G= BGXN>G<> H? MA> K>F:BGBG@  O:KB:;E>L
0ABL MRI> H? W@NK> BL :DBG MH : MK:=BMBHG:E >??><M LBS> <:E<NE:MBHG BG MA:M
Fig. 5. #>:MNK> BFIHKM:G<> IEHM ?HK MA> )HLM )>:= 4$EE FH=>E LAHPBG@
K:GD>= BFIHKM:G<> H? MHI  O:KB:;E>L :G= <NFNE:MBO> <HGMKB;NMBHG H? K>F:BG
BG@  O:KB:;E>L 0A> ?>:MNK> BFIHKM:G<> BL <:E<NE:M>= NLBG@ MA> FH=>E /%-
O:EN>L <HGO>KM>= BGMH F>:G :;LHENM> BFI:<M HG IKH;:;BEBMR #HK >Q:FIE> MA>
?>:MNK> “+NF;>K H? K>?>KK>KL PBMABG  FBE>L”A:= :G :O>K:@> :;LHENM> BF
I:<M HG MA> HNMINM IKH;:;BEBMR ;R :IIKHQBF:M>ER  0A> W@NK> =H>L GHM
LAHP =BK><MBHG H? BGXN>G<> PAB<A BL H;L>KO>= BG MA> <HG=BMBHG:E =>I>G=>G<>
IEHM


UNCORRECTED PROOF
B. Sigrin et al. Energy Research & Social Science xxx (xxxx) 102417
Fig. 6. )>:= EHLL <HG=BMBHG:E =>I>G=>G<> IEHM =>FHGLMK:MBG@ F:K@BG:E >??><M H? : LBG@E> ?>:MNK> HG MA> IK>=B<M>= E>:= EHLL IKH;:;BEBMR 0A> <HG=BMBHG:E =>I>G=>G<>
IEHM BL <HGLMKN<M>= NLBG@ /%- O:EN>L ?HK MA> MHI M>G ?>:MNK>L H? AB@A>LM BFIHKM:G<> MH FH=>E’L ;:E:G<>= :<<NK:<R K:GD>= ;R MA> ?>:MNK>’L F>:G :;LHENM> /%-
O:EN> 0A> /%- O:EN>L :K> MA>G <HGO>KM>= BGMH >JNBO:E>GM BFI:<M HG IKH;:;BEBMR 0A> Q:QBL LAHPL MA> O:EN> H? MA> ?>:MNK> >@ MA> GNF;>K H? K>?>KK:EL PBMABG
 FBE>L #HK : @BO>G QO:EN> : IHLBMBO> IKH;:;BEBMR RO:EN> BG=B<:M>L MA> E>:= P:L FHK> EBD>ER MH ;> EHLM 0A> F:@GBMN=> H? /%- O:EN>L BG=B<:M>L MA> =>@K>> H?
BGXN>G<> HG MA> IK>=B<MBHG .>F:BGBG@ ?>:MNK>L :K> NL>= BG IK>=B<MBHG ;NM GHM LAHPG ?HK <HG<BL>G>LL
BM =>FHGLMK:M>L MA> =>@K>> H? BFIHKM:G<> ?HK >:<A FH=>E ?>:MNK> >Q
IK>LL>= BG M>KFL H? MA> F>:G :;LHENM> BFI:<M HG IKH;:;BEBMR #KHF MABL
P> H;L>KO> MA:M <HG<>GMK:MBHG H? K>?>KK>KL P:L MA> FHLM BFIHKM:GM O:KB
:;E> ?HK IK>=B<MBHG A:OBG@ : F>:G :;LHENM> BFI:<M H?  HG MA> IKH;
:;BEBMR H? E>:= EHLL +>QM :O:BE:;BEBMR H? MA> E>:=’L K:<> MA>BK BG<HF>
:G= AHNL>AHE= LBS> P>K> :EE LB@GB?B<:GM <HGMKB;NMHKL
#B@  LAHPL MA> /%- <HG=BMBHG:E =>I>G=>G<> IEHM ?HK MA> 
FHLMBFIHKM:GM ?>:MNK>L BG MA> )HLM )>:= 4$EE FH=>E -HLBMBO>
/%- O:EN>L R:QBL BG=B<:M> MA> E>:= P:L FHK> EBD>ER MH ;> EHLM #HK
MA> FHLM BFIHKM:GM ?>:MNK> “GNF;>K H? K>?>KK:EL PBMABG FB”=>
<K>:L>L BG MA> <HG<>GMK:MBHG H? K>?>KK>KL P:L <HKK>E:M>= PBMA IK>=B<MBG@
E>:= EHLL #HK BGLM:G<> E>:=L PBMA S>KH K>?>KK>KL PBMABG  FBE>L P>K>
:IIKHQBF:M>ER  FHK> EBD>ER MH ;><HF> EHLM E>:=L MA:G MA> F>:G
O:EN> PA>K>:L A:OBG@ WO> K>?>KK>KL G>:K;R =><K>:L>= MA> IKH;:;BEBMR
H? : EHLM E>:= ;R  K>E:MBO> MH E>:=L PBMA S>KH K>?>KK>KL #HK ;BG:KR
O:KB:;E>L LN<A :L ‘.>@BHG –:R K>:’ MA> BGM>KIK>M:MBHG BL ;>MP>>G
MA> MPH HNM<HF>L B> <EB>GML MA:M K>LB=>= BG MA> :R K>: P>K> 
E>LL EBD>ER MH ;><HF> EHLM E>:=L MA:G MAHL> MA:M =B= GHM .>:=>KL LAHNE=
;> <:K>?NE MH :IIK><B:M> MA:M MA> /%- <HG=BMBHG:E =>I>G=>G<> IEHML
=H GHM F:D> <:NL:E <E:BFL >@ P> <:G HGER BG?>K MA:M BG<K>:L>L BG MA>
GNF;>K H? K>?>KK:EL P:L correlated PBMA : =><K>:L> BG MA> IKH;:;BEBMR H?
: EHLM E>:=
/RGMA>LBSBG@ MA> ?>:MNK> BFIHKM:G<> :G= <HG=BMBHG:E =>I>G=>G<>
IEHM P> H;L>KO> MA:M I>>K >??><ML P>K> LB@GB?B<:GM <HGMKB;NMHKL MH MA>
IK>=B<MBHG %:E? H? MA> MHI  ?>:MNK>L :K> IKHQB>L ?HK LI:MB:E I>>K >??><ML
GNF;>K H? K>?>KK>KL GNF;>K H? )*& HK F:KD>MK:M> LHE:K BGLM:EE:MBHGL
G>:K;R :G= =>GLBMR H? )*& BGLM:EEL :G= MA>K> BL BGXN>G<> ?KHF ;HMA
F:KD>MK:M> :G= )*& BGLM:EE:MBHGL %HP>O>K MA>K> BL LHF> :F;B@NBMR BG
MA> =BK><MBHG H? BGXN>G<> :L BG<K>:LBG@ K>?>KK>KL :G= <HG<>GMK:MBHG H?
BGLM:EEL BG MA> MK:<M P>K> G>@:MBO>ER <HKK>E:M>= PBMA IK>=B<MBG@ E>:= EHLL
PA>K>:L <HG<>GMK:MBHG H? )*& BGLM:EE:MBHGL P:L IHLBMBO>ER <HKK>E:M>=
0AK>> H? MA> MHI  ?>:MNK>L :K> AHNL>AHE= <A:K:<M>KBLMB<L BG<HF>
AHNL>AHE= LBS> K:<> :G= MPH :K> G>B@A;HKAHH= E>O>E <A:K:<M>KBLMB<L
:R K>: 1MBEBMR–-$" 0AHN@A MA>R :K> GHM BG<EN=>= BG MA> MHI 
MA>K> :K> L>O>K:E >GOBKHGF>GM:EK>E:M>= O:KB:;E>L BG MA> MHI  >@
A:S:K=HNL P:LM> =B>L>E >FBLLBHGL P:M>K <HGM:FBG:MBHG
3.3.2. Referral model
!>LIBM> ;>BG@ HG> H? MA> E:K@>LM :G= AB@A>LM IKHI>GLBMR E>:= LHNK<>L
HGER  H? )*& :=HIM>KL IKHOB=>= : K>?>KK:E E>:=BG@ MH :G BGLM:EE L


UNCORRECTED PROOF
B. Sigrin et al. Energy Research & Social Science xxx (xxxx) 102417
=BL<NLL>= BG /><MBHG  PBMA BFIKHO>= IK>=B<MBHG H? K>?>KK:EL :
IK:<MBMBHG>K FB@AM IKBHKBMBS> F:KD>MBG@ <HLML MH MA> L>M H? <EB>GML IK>
=B<M>= MH A:O> : AB@A>K K>?>KK:E IKHI>GLBMR HK M:K@>M IKHLI><MBO> <EB>GML
PBMA : LBFBE:K IKHWE>
L BG MA> EHLM E>:= FH=>E P> <HFI:K> MA> :<<NK:<R BG IK>=B<MBG@ K>
?>KK:EL NLBG@ 4$ O>KLNL +:UO> :R>L FH=>EL :G= NLBG@ =:M: ?KHF IN;
EB<HGER MH IN;EB< :G= IKBO:M> LHNK<>L 0:;E>  :E:G<>= :<<NK:<R H?
MA> 4$EE FH=>E P:L  EHP>K MA:G MA> EHLM E>:= FH=>E 0A> :==B
MBHG H? IKBO:M> =:M: FH=>LMER BFIKHO>L MA> FH=>E :L =H>L NLBG@ MA>
4$ O>KLNL +:UO> :R>L LI><BW<:MBHG )BD> MA> EHLM E>:= FH=>E LI><B
W<BMR BL AB@A>K MA:G L>GLBMBOBMR F>:GBG@ MA:M : IK:<MBMBHG>K PHNE= ;>
FHK> :<<NK:M> :M IK>=B<MBG@ <EB>GML MA:M =H GHM IKHOB=> K>?>KK:EL MA:G
MAHL> MA:M =H
1LBG@ MA> ?K:F>PHKD =>O>EHI>= :;HO> /><MBHG  PBMAHNM : IK>
=B<MBO> FH=>E MA> IK:<MBMBHG>K PHNE= G>>= MH IKH<>LL  <EB>GML MH
@>G>K:M>  K>?>KK:EL %HP>O>K MA> 4$EE FH=>E L>GLBMBOBMR :G=
LI><BW<BMR BFIER MA:M H?  <EB>GML  :K> BG?>KK>= MH ;> K>?>KK>KL
:G=  GHM ,? MA>  BG?>KK>= K>?>KK>KL  PHNE= :<MN:EER IKHOB=>
: K>?>KK:E :G=  PHNE= GHM %HP>O>K ;><:NL> H? MA> EHP IK>O:E>G<>
MABL BL LMBEE : LN;LM:GMB:E BG<K>:L> BG >?W<B>G<R—MA> IK:<MBMBHG>K PHNE=
K>JNBK>  H? LM:?? MBF>  MH :<JNBK>  H? MA> K>?>KK>KL
 HK :  BG<K>:L> BG K>?>KK:E >?W<B>G<R 0AHN@A MA> K>?>KK:E
IK>=B<MBO> FH=>E IKHOB=>L LB@GB?B<:GM IK>=B<MBO> BFIKHO>F>GM 
HO>K : K:G=HF @N>LL BM BL :ELH >OB=>GM MA:M :==BMBHG:E NGH;L>KO>= O:KB
:;E>L BGXN>G<> MA> K>?>KK:E IKH<>LL 0A>L> <HNE= ;> NGH;L>KO>= K>?>K
K>KK>?>K>> <A:K:<M>KBLMB<L :G= :MMBMN=>L :G= ;>A:OBHKL
#B@  LAHPL MA> ?>:MNK> BFIHKM:G<> ?HK MA> .>?>KK:E 4$EE FH=>E
?HK MA> MHI  O:KB:;E>L :G= BGXN>G<> H? MA> K>F:BGBG@  O:KB:;E>L
HGMK:LMBG@ PBMA EHLM E>:= ?>:MNK> BFIHKM:G<> IEHM ?>:MNK>L A:O> :
EHP>K BFI:<M HG MA> K>?>KK:E IKH;:;BEBMR EBD>ER K>E:M>= MH MA> HO>K:EE
EHP>K FH=>E :<<NK:<R %HP>O>K EBD> MA> EHLM E>:= FH=>E =BLM:G<> MH
MA> G>:K>LM K>?>KK>K BL MA> FHLMBFI:<M?NE O:KB:;E> HG IK>=B<MBHG :??><M
BG@ MA> F>:G :;LHENM> IKH;:;BEBMR ;R  ==BMBHG:E BFI:<M?NE O:KB
:;E>L P>K> PA>MA>K MA> <EB>GM P:L BG<>GMBOBS>= MH IKHOB=> : K>?>KK>K
K>LB=>= BG MA> :R K>: :G= A:= BGM>KG>M :<<>LL#B@ 
#B@NK> LAHPL MA> /%- <HG=BMBHG:E =>I>G=>G<> IEHM ?HK MA> 4$EE
.>?>KK:E FH=>E -HLBMBO> /%- O:EN>L R:QBL BG=B<:M> MA> <EB>GM P:L
FHK> EBD>ER MH IKHOB=> : K>?>KK:E L PBMA MA> EHLM E>:= FH=>E I>>K >??><M
O:KB:;E>L P>K> BFIHKM:GM MH IK>=B<MBHG :G= MA>R P>K> <HGLBLM>GM BG MA:M
IKHQBFBMR MH K>?>KK>KL :G= A:OBG@ ;>>G K>?>KK>= MA>FL>EO>L P>K> ;HMA
IHLBMBO>ER <HKK>E:M>= PBMA IK>=B<MBG@ : K>?>KK:E &GM>K>LMBG@ER DGHPBG@
MA> GNF;>K H? >QBLMBG@ LHE:K BGLM:EE:MBHGL G>:K;R P:L GHM H? LN;LM:GMB:E
O:EN> BG IK>=B<MBG@ K>?>KK:EL NGEBD> EHLM E>:=L "<HGHFB< ?:<MHKL :ELH
A:= : LMKHG@ BGXN>G<> HG MA> K>?>KK:E FH=>E—<EB>GML MA:M K><>BO>= :
FHG>M:KR K>P:K= ?HK =HBG@ LH BG<K>:L>L BG :GGN:E -2 >E><MKB<BMR @>G>K
:MBHG :G= AB@A>K >E><MKB<BMR >QI>G=BMNK>L P>K> :EE IHLBMBO>ER <HKK>E:M>=
PBMA IK>=B<MBHG H? K>?>KK:EL
1GEBD> MA> EHLM E>:= FH=>E >GOBKHGF>GM:E O:KB:;E>L P>K> GHM LB@GB?
B<:GM BG IK>=B<MBG@ K>?>KK:EL I:KM ?KHF MK:?W< =>GLBMR PAB<A BL IHLB
MBO>ER <HKK>E:M>= MA>K> :K> GH HMA>K >GOBKHGF>GMK>E:M>= O:KB:;E>L BG
MA> MHI  &GLM>:= G>B@A;HKAHH= LH<BH=>FH@K:IAB< O:KB:;E>L LN<A :L
=BLMKB;NMBHG H? K:<>>MAGB<BMR :G= :@> H? K>LB=>GML :K> K>IK>L>GM>= K>
I>:M>=ER #BG:EER IKHOB=BG@ K>?>KK:EL P>K> IHLBMBO>ER <HKK>E:M>= PBMA BG
M>KG>M :G= ?HK LF:EE>K AHNL>AHE=L 0PH ?>:MNK>L P>K> <HFFHG MH ;HMA
MA> EHLM E>:= :G= K>?>KK:E FH=>EL’MHI BFIHKM:GM ?>:MNK>L <HNGML=BL
M:G<> MH G>:K;R K>?>KK>KL :G= AHNL>AHE= LBS>
Table 4
*>MKB<L ?HK K>?>KK:E FH=>E ;R FH=>E :G= =:M: MRI>
*H=>E
0RI>
!:M:
0RI>
-K>O:E>G<> />GLBMBOBMR /I><B?B<BMR -K><BLBHG # :E:G<>=
<<NK:<R
4$ -N;EB<      
EE     
+:UO>
:R>L
-N;EB<     
EE     
Fig. 7. #>:MNK> BFIHKM:G<> IEHM ?HK MA> .>?>KK:E 4$EE FH=>E LAHPBG@
K:GD>= BFIHKM:G<> H? MHI  O:KB:;E>L :G= <NFNE:MBO> <HGMKB;NMBHG H? K>F:BG
BG@  O:KB:;E>L 0A> ?>:MNK> BFIHKM:G<> BL <:E<NE:M>= NLBG@ MA> FH=>E /%-
O:EN>L <HGO>KM>= BGMH F>:G :;LHENM> BFI:<M HG IKH;:;BEBMR #HK >Q:FIE> MA>
?>:MNK> “!BLM:G<> MH G>:K>LM K>?>KK>K”A:= :G :O>K:@> :;LHENM> BFI:<M HG MA>
HNMINM IKH;:;BEBMR ;R :IIKHQBF:M>ER  0A> W@NK> =H>L GHM LAHP =BK><MBHG
H? BGXN>G<> PAB<A BL H;L>KO>= BG MA> <HG=BMBHG:E =>I>G=>G<> IEHM
4. Conclusion
"G<HNK:@BG@ MA> :=HIMBHG H? LHE:K ;R )*& AHNL>AHE=L :==K>LL>L
F:GR IHEB<R @H:EL R>M BM BL NG<E>:K AHP MH >??><MBO>ER L<:E> MA>L> IKH
@K:FL "QI>KB>G<> PBMA )*& LHE:K BG :EB?HKGB: IKHOB=>L L>O>K:E E>LLHGL
MA>K>BG !>LIBM> MA> G>:KMHM:E <HLM LN;LB=BS:MBHG :<JNBKBG@ <EB>GML ?HK
)*& IKH@K:FL K>F:BGL <A:EE>G@BG@ PA>K> E>LL MA:G  H? LHE:K E>:=L
E>= MH BGLM:EE:MBHGL  E:K@> ?K:<MBHG H? MA> E>:=L P>K> =BLJN:EBW>= =N> MH
MA> BGMKB<:M> <HF;BG:MBHG H? @>H@K:IAR HPG>KLABI :G= BG<HF> >EB@B
;BEBMR <KBM>KB: 0AHN@A MA>L> <KBM>KB: :K> BFIHKM:GM ?HK >GLNKBG@ )*& IKH
@K:F ?NG=L K>:<A MA> =>LBK>= IHINE:MBHG MA>R :ELH BFIHL> :==BMBHG:E
:=FBGBLMK:MBO> ;NK=>G -KH@K:FL FB@AM A:O> :==BMBHG:E BFI:<M ;R EHHL
>GBG@ HK LBFIEB?RBG@ >EB@B;BEBMR <KBM>KB: HK ;R HMA>K F>:GL MH F:D> BM
>:LB>K MH =>M>KFBG> MA> >EB@B;BEBMR
/>O>K:E F><A:GBLFL P>K> NL>= ?HK :<JNBKBG@ )*& IKH@K:F E>:=L ;NM
GHG> FHK> >??><MBO> MA:G I>>K K>?>KK:EL +HM HGER P>K> K>?>KK:EL MA> LBG
@E> E:K@>LM LHNK<> H? E>:=L ;NM MA>R P>K> :ELH HG> H? MA> FHLM >??><MBO>
BG M>KFL H? I>K<>GM:@> <HGO>KLBHG ==BMBHG:EER =BLM:G<> MH G>:K;R K>
?>KK>KL P:L MA> FHLM BFIHKM:GM O:KB:;E> BG BG<K>:LBG@ IK>=B<MBO> I>K?HK
F:G<> ?HK ;HMA MA> EHLM E>:= :G= K>?>KK:E FH=>EL -K:<MBMBHG>KL :K> >G
<HNK:@>= MH BG<HKIHK:M> K>?>KK:E F><A:GBLFL BG ?NMNK> )*& IKH@K:FL :L
: F>:GL H? L>>=BG@ :G= L<:EBG@ )*& LHE:K :=HIMBHG
-K>=B<MBHG ?HK : LHE:K E>:= MH ;><HF> EHLM P:L FHK> LN<<>LL?NE MA:G
IK>=B<MBG@ PA>MA>K : <EB>GM PHNE= IKHOB=> : K>?>KK:E 0ABL LN@@>LML MA:M
PABE> E>:= LM:MNL <:G K>:=BER ;> IK>=B<M>= NLBG@ :O:BE:;E> =:M: K>?>KK:EL
F:R K>JNBK> :==BMBHG:E >QIE:G:MHKR O:KB:;E>L 0A>L> <HNE= BG<EN=> MA>
G:MNK> H? MA> K>?>KK>KK>?>K>> K>E:MBHGLABI E>O>E H? L:MBL?:<MBHG PBMA MA>
LHE:K LRLM>F :G= HMA>K :MMBMN=>L :G= GHKFL =B?W<NEM MH H;M:BG ?KHF H;
L>KO:MBHG:E :G= L><HG=:KR =:M: LHNK<>L :EHG> #NMNK> PHKD <HNE= M>LM
:==BMBHG:E LI><BW<:MBHGL ?HK IK>=B<MBG@ K>?>KK:EL HMA IK>=B<MBO> FH=
>EL P>K> >O:EN:M>= PA>G MK:BG>= HGER NLBG@ IN;EB<ER :<<>LLB;E> =:M: MH
MAHL> MA:M PHNE= ;> :<<>LLB;E> HGER MH MA> )*& IKH@K:F :=FBGBLMK:MHK
IKBO:M> =:M: LB@GB?B<:GMER BFIKHO>= IK>=B<MBHG BG MA> EHLM E>:= FH=>E
;NM HGER FH=>LMER BG MA> K>?>KK:E FH=>E "O>G B? : ?>:MNK> <HNE= ;>


UNCORRECTED PROOF
B. Sigrin et al. Energy Research & Social Science xxx (xxxx) 102417
Fig. 8. .>?>KK:E <HG=BMBHG:E =>I>G=>G<> IEHM =>FHGLMK:MBG@ F:K@BG:E >??><M H? : LBG@E> ?>:MNK> HG MA> IK>=B<M>= IKH;:;BEBMR H? IKHOB=BG@ : K>?>KK:E 0A> <HG=BMBHG:E
=>I>G=>G<> IEHM BL <HGLMKN<M>= NLBG@ /%- O:EN>L ?HK MA> MHI M>G ?>:MNK>L H? AB@A>LM BFIHKM:G<> MH FH=>E’L ;:E:G<>= :<<NK:<R K:GD>= ;R MA> ?>:MNK>’L F>:G :;
LHENM> /%- O:EN> 0A> /%- O:EN>L :K> MA>G <HGO>KM>= BGMH >JNBO:E>GM BFI:<M HG IKH;:;BEBMR 0A> Q:QBL LAHPL MA> O:EN> H? MA> ?>:MNK> >@ MA> =BLM:G<> MH G>:K
>LM K>?>KK>K #HK : @BO>G QO:EN> : IHLBMBO> IKH;:;BEBMR RO:EN> BG=B<:M>L MA> <EB>GM P:L FHK> EBD>ER MH IKHOB=> : K>?>KK:E 0A> F:@GBMN=> H? /%- O:EN>L BG=B<:M>L
MA> =>@K>> H? BGXN>G<> HG MA> IK>=B<MBHG .>F:BGBG@ ?>:MNK>L :K> NL>= BG IK>=B<MBHG ;NM GHM LAHPG ?HK <HG<BL>G>LL
DGHPG ?HK ?NMNK> BG?>K>G<> BM LMBEE F:R ;> BG?>:LB;E> MH K>EB:;ER @:MA>K
/H PABE> =:M: @:MA>K>= MAKHN@A : LNKO>R FB@AM BG<K>:L> IK>=B<MBO> I>K
?HKF:G<> BM <HNE= :ELH ;> BG?>:LB;E> MH <HEE><M :M L<:E> ?HK MAHNL:G=L H?
IHM>GMB:E <EB>GM AHNL>AHE=L L IHEB<RF:D>KL <HGLB=>K :IIKH:<A>L MH
K>F>=R BG>JNBMB>L BG :<<>LL MH K>G>P:;E> >G>K@R @>G>K:MBHG IKH@K:F
BFIE>F>GM:MBHG LMK:M>@B>L :G= M><AGBJN>L –:L FN<A :L )*& BG<>GMBO>
IHEB<R =>LB@G –PBEE LA:I> MA> K>:<A :G= I:<> H? IKH@K:F NIM:D>
0A> IK>=B<MBO> FH=>E K>LNEML A:O> IK:<MB<:E BFIEB<:MBHGL MH IK:<MB
MBHG>KL :G= MA>BK O:EN> LAHNE= ;> <HGLB=>K>= BG <HGM>QM #HK BGLM:G<>
:IIERBG@ MA> E>:= EHLL FH=>E L>> 3.3.1 BG IK:<MB<> PHNE= K>LNEM BG
 H? LM:?? MBF> MH :<JNBK>  H? MA> E>:=L  BFIKHO>F>GM
:G= MA> K>?>KK:E FH=>E L>> 3.3.2 PHNE= K>LNEM BG  H? LM:?? MBF> MH
:<JNBK>  H? MA> K>?>KK>KL  BFIKHO>F>GM 0AHN@A MA> FH=>E
BG<K>:L>L MA> >?W<B>G<R H? LM:?? MBF> I>K HNM<HF> BM K>LNEML BG ?>P>K HNM
<HF>L HO>K:EE ;R OBKMN> H? =BL<:K=BG@ <EB>GML IK>=B<M>= BG MA> G>@:MBO>
<E:LL 3A>MA>K MA> BG<K>:L> BG IK>=B<MBHG BL O:EN:;E> =>I>G=L HG <HG
M>QM #HK BGLM:G<> PA:M BL MA> HIIHKMNGBMR <HLM H? LM:?? MBF> &? MBF> HK
IKH@K:F K>L>KO>L :K> L:O>= ;R BFIKHO>= IK>=B<MBHG <:G MAHL> K>
LHNK<>L ;> :IIEB>= ?KNBM?NEER MH HMA>K F:MM>KL ELH MA> O:EN> <HNE= =>
I>G= HG MA> :FHNGM H? <HLM MH IKH<>LL : E>:= HK K>?>KK:E K>E:MBO> MH MA>BK
HK@:GBS:MBHG:E O:EN> #BG:EER MA> )*& IKH@K:F <HNE= ;> <HGLMK:BG>= ;R
:O:BE:;E> ?NG=L PAB<A PHNE= >FIA:LBS> HI>K:MBHG:E >?W<B>G<R HK ;R
MA> HO>K:EE L<:K<BMR H? E>:=L >FIA:LBSBG@ IK>L>KOBG@ E>:=L
0A> FH=>EL P>K> <:EB;K:M>= MH HIMBFBS> MA> balanced accuracy PBMA
:G >JN:E >FIA:LBL HG FH=>E L>GLBMBOBMR :G= LI><BW<BMR %HP>O>K :
IK:<MBMBHG>K FB@AM A:O> =B??>K>GM IKBHKBMB>L =>I>G=BG@ HG IKH@K:F
LMK:M>@R &G I:KMB<NE:K : AB@A>K >FIA:LBL HG FH=>E L>GLBMBOBMR <HNE= ;>
P:KK:GM>= B? IKH@K:F O:EN> BL =>KBO>= ?KHF <HKK><MER B=>GMB?RBG@ <EB>GML
EBD>ER MH IKHOB=> K>?>KK:EL :M MA> >QI>GL> H? AB@A>K ?:EL> IHLBMBO>L -K>
=B<MBHG H? K>?>KK:EL <HNE= ;> >LI><B:EER O:EN:;E> :L : F><A:GBLF ?HK
‘L>>=BG@’G>P K>@BHGL HK B? MA> FH=>E <HNE= ;> :IIEB>= :M MA> E>:= @>G
>K:MBHG IA:L> /BFBE:KER ?HK E>:=L PAB<A HNM<HF> BL FHK> BFIHKM:GM MH
<HKK><MER IK>=B<M PAH PBEE ;><HF> EHLM HK GHM EHLM &G MA> ?HKF>K :
IK:<MBMBHG>K FB@AM :=CNLM MA>BK F:KD>MBG@ M:<MB<L MH IK>O>GM E>:= EHLL HK
O:KBHNLER BG<K>:L> ?H<NL HG AB@A IKHI>GLBMR E>:=L
 LN;LM:GMB:E <HG<>KG H? F:<ABG> E>:KGBG@ BL MA> IHLLB;BEBMR H? FH=>E
;B:L MH MA> =>MKBF>GM H? <HFFNGBMB>L HK HNM<HF>L NG=>KK>IK>L>GM>= BG
MK:BGBG@ =:M: 78 0AHN@A P> LN@@>LM MA:M )*& IKH@K:F HI>K:MBHG:E
<HLML <HNE= ;> K>=N<>= MAKHN@A BFIKHO>= IK>=B<MBHG H? EHLM E>:=L :G=
K>?>KK:EL <E>:KER IK:<MBMBHG>KL LAHNE= IKH<>>= <:NMBHNLER 0H MA> >QM>GM


UNCORRECTED PROOF
B. Sigrin et al. Energy Research & Social Science xxx (xxxx) 102417
MA:M MA>K> :K> =B??>K>G<>L BG IKH@K:F HNM<HF>L IK>=B<MBO> FH=>EL
<HNE= IK>?>K>G<> HG> LH<BH=>FH@K:IAB< @KHNI HO>K :GHMA>K E>:=BG@ MH
BG>JNBM:;E> IKH@K:F I:KMB<BI:MBHG 0H LHF> >QM>GM MABL BL :EK>:=R LN@
@>LMBO> BG MA> ?>:MNK>L MA> FH=>EL B=>GMBW>= :L A:OBG@ MA> FHLM IK>=B<
MBO> I>K?HKF:G<> >@ GNF;>K H? LNKKHNG=BG@ BGLM:EE:MBHGL K:<> HK
AHNL>AHE= LBS> -K>>QBLMBG@ ;B:L>L H? MA> IK:<MBMBHG>K <HNE= ;> BGMKH
=N<>= =NKBG@ FH=>E =>LB@G ?HK BGLM:G<> <AHB<> H? FH=>E ?>:MNK>L MA:M
BFIEB<BMER =BL<HNGM MA> >QI>KB>G<>L H? NG=>KK>IK>L>GM>= @KHNIL ,MA>K
<HG<>KGL BG<EN=> NL> H? FH=>EL BG :IIEB<:MBHGL MA:M IKBHKBMBS> IKH?BM HO>K
>JNBMR :G= ;B:L>= BGM>KIK>M:MBHG HK :IIEB<:MBHG H? : FH=>E >O>G B? MA>
FH=>E BML>E? BL NG;B:L>= %HP>O>K MA>K> :K> L>O>K:E IK:<MB<:E LM>IL MA:M
HG> <:G M:D> MH IK>O>GM =:M:=KBO>G FH=>EBG@ ?KHF ?NKMA>K >GMK>G<ABG@
>QBLMBG@ BG>JN:EBMB>L ;>MP>>G :=HIM>KL :G= GHG:=HIMBHG 0A>L> BG
<EN=> B >GLNKBG@ MA:M =:M: NL>= MH MK:BG FH=>EL :K> K>IK>L>GM:MBO> H?
MA> M:K@>M IHINE:MBHG :G= B? GHM BB HO>KL:FIEBG@ HG NG=>KK>IK>L>GM>=
IHINE:MBHGL MH <HGLMKN<M MA> MK:BGBG@ =:M: :G= BBB NL> H? >JNBMR;:L>=
JNHM:L ;R LH<BH=>FH@K:IAB< @KHNI ?HK IKH@K:F HNM<HF>L "GLNKBG@
>JNBM:;E> :<<>LL MH MA> ;>G>WML H? =><:K;HGBS:MBHG K>JNBK>L ;HMA : <:K>
?NE <HGLB=>K:MBHG H? MA> IKHFBL> H? =:M:=KBO>G F>MAH=L ;NM :ELH MA>BK
?:BK :IIEB<:MBHG
Declaration of Competing Interest
0A> :NMAHKL =><E:K> MA:M MA>R A:O> GH DGHPG <HFI>MBG@ WG:G<B:E
BGM>K>LML HK I>KLHG:E K>E:MBHGLABIL MA:M <HNE= A:O> :II>:K>= MH BGXN
>G<> MA> PHKD K>IHKM>= BG MABL I:I>K
Acknowledgements
0A> :NMAHKL MA:GD +:BF !:K@AHNMA ?HK :LLBLM:G<> BG <:E<NE:MBG@ BG
LM:EE>= ;:L> F>:LNK>L NLBG@ MA> GHGIN;EB< 0K:<DBG@ MA> /NG =:M: L>M
G:G= $HOBG=:K:C:G ?HK :LLBLM:G<> BG IKH<>LLBG@ =:M: :G= *:=>EBG>
$>H<:KBL ?HK >=BMBG@ 3> :ELH MA:GD 0HGR .>:F>L GGBD: 0H==EB<D
:G= (BF 3HELD> ?HK MA>BK ?>>=;:<D HG MA> LMN=R =>LB@G :G= MH $.&! E
M>KG:MBO>L LM:?? BG<EN=BG@ /:K:A N<<B '>??K>R HE>F:G 6:<A #K:GDEBG
:G= )BS: +H;>E ?HK MA>BK ?>>=;:<D BG BGM>KIK>MBG@ =:M:
0ABL PHKD P:L :NMAHK>= ;R MA> +:MBHG:E .>G>P:;E> "G>K@R ):;HK:
MHKR F:G:@>= :G= HI>K:M>= ;R EEB:G<> ?HK /NLM:BG:;E> "G>K@R )) ?HK
MA> 1/ !>I:KMF>GM H? "G>K@R !," NG=>K HGMK:<M +H !" 
$, #NG=BG@ P:L IKHOB=>= ;R MA> 1/ !>I:KMF>GM H? "G>K@R
,?W<> H? "G>K@R "?W<B>G<R :G= .>G>P:;E> "G>K@R /HE:K "G>K@R 0><A
GHEH@B>L ,?W<> 0A> OB>PL >QIK>LL>= BG MA> :KMB<E> =H GHM G><>LL:KBER
K>IK>L>GM MA> OB>PL H? MA> !," HK MA> 1/ $HO>KGF>GM 0A> 1/ $HO
>KGF>GM K>M:BGL :G= MA> IN;EBLA>K ;R :<<>IMBG@ MA> :KMB<E> ?HK IN;EB<:
MBHG :<DGHPE>=@>L MA:M MA> 1/ $HO>KGF>GM K>M:BGL : GHG>Q<ENLBO>
I:B=NI BKK>OH<:;E> PHKE=PB=> EB<>GL> MH IN;EBLA HK K>IKH=N<> MA>
IN;EBLA>= ?HKF H? MABL PHKD HK :EEHP HMA>KL MH =H LH ?HK 1/ $HO>KG
F>GM INKIHL>L 0ABL K>L>:K<A P:L I>K?HKF>= NLBG@ <HFINM:MBHG:E K>
LHNK<>L LIHGLHK>= ;R MA> !>I:KMF>GM H? "G>K@RL ,?W<> H? "G>K@R "?W
<B>G<R :G= .>G>P:;E> "G>K@R :G= EH<:M>= :M MA> +:MBHG:E .>G>P:;E>
"G>K@R ):;HK:MHKR
Appendix A. Supplementary data
/NIIE>F>GM:KR =:M: MH MABL :KMB<E> <:G ;> ?HNG= HGEBG> :M AMMIL
=HBHK@C>KLL
References
78 0$ .>:F>L !BLMKB;NMBHG:E =BLI:KBMB>L BG K>LB=>GMB:E KHH?MHI LHE:K IHM>GMB:E :G=
I>G>MK:MBHG BG ?HNK <BMB>L BG MA> 1GBM>= /M:M>L "G>K@R .>L /H< /<B  
 AMMIL=HBHK@C>KLL
78 ! /NGM>K / :LM>EE:GHL !* (:FF>G !BLI:KBMB>L BG KHH?MHI IAHMHOHEM:B<L
=>IEHRF>GM BG MA> 1GBM>= /M:M>L ;R K:<> :G= >MAGB<BMR +:M /NLM:BG   
– AMMIL=HBHK@LS
78 / HK>GLM>BG )3 !:OBL 0A> !BLMKB;NMBHG:E "??><ML H? 1/ E>:G "G>K@R 0:Q
K>=BML 0:Q -HEB<R "<HG    – AMMIL=HBHK@
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*H=>K:M> &G<HF> %HNL>AHE=L BG MA> 1GBM>= /M:M>L +:MBHG:E .>G>P:;E> "G>K@R ):;
+.") $HE=>G , 1GBM>= /M:M>L 
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@:I ;>MP>>G MA> M><AGB<:EER IHLLB;E> :G= MA> :<AB>O:;E> "G>K@R .>L /H< /<B 
  AMMIL=HBHK@C>KLL
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-2 =HIM>KL G :G:ERLBL H? AHNL>AHE=E>O>E BG<HF> >LMBF:M>L 
78  !K>AH;E ) .HLL )B?MBG@ MA> AB@A >G>K@R ;NK=>G BG F>KB<:’L E:K@>LM <BMB>L
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
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>?W<B>G<R ?HK EHPBG<HF> K>GM>KL "G>K@R -HEB<R   –
78 ( $BEEBG@A:F * %:K=BG@ ! .:ILHG /IEBM &G<>GMBO>L BG .>LB=>GMB:E "G>K@R
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.>G>P:;E> "G>K@R ):; +.") $HE=>G , 1GBM>= /M:M>L  AMMIL
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IKH@K:F F "<HG .>O    – AMMIL=HBHK@
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"G>K@R    – AMMIL=HBHK@L
78  !:OB=LHG " !KNKR  )HI>S . "EFHK> . *:K@HEBL *H=>EBG@ IAHMHOHEM:B<
=BYNLBHG :G :G:ERLBL H? @>HLI:MB:E =:M:L>ML "GOBKHG .>L )>MM   
78 (/ 3HELD> (0 $BEEBG@A:F -3 /<ANEMS ->>K BGXN>G<> HG AHNL>AHE= >G>K@R
;>A:OBHNKL +:M "G>K@R    – AMMIL=HBHK@L

78  />D:K 2 .:B -K>=B<MBG@ ):M>GM HGLMKN<ML ?KHF -:LLBO> !:M:L>ML –
/B@GB?B<:G<> :G= ,IIHKMNGBMB>L /H<B:E /<B>G<> .>L>:K<A +>MPHKD .H<A>LM>K +5
 AMMILI:I>KLLLKG<HF:;LMK:<M :<<>LL>= N@NLM  
78  -:EF ->>K >??><ML BG K>LB=>GMB:E LHE:K IAHMHOHEM:B<L :=HIMBHG— FBQ>=
F>MAH=L LMN=R H? /P>=BLA NL>KL "G>K@R .>L /H< /<B   – AMMIL
=HBHK@C>KLL
78 * $K:SB:GH ( $BEEBG@A:F /I:MB:E I:MM>KGL H? LHE:K IAHMHOHEM:B< LRLM>F
:=HIMBHG 0A> BGXN>G<> H? G>B@A;HKL :G= MA> ;NBEM >GOBKHGF>GM ‡ ' "<HG $>H@K
   – AMMIL=HBHK@C>@E;N
78 ! +HEE  !:P>L 2 .:B /HE:K HFFNGBMR ,K@:GBS:MBHGL :G= :<MBO> I>>K >??><ML
BG MA> :=HIMBHG H? K>LB=>GMB:E -2 "G>K@R -HEB<R   – AMMIL
=HBHK@C>GIHE
78  /B@KBG ' -E>LL " !KNKR !BYNLBHG BGMH G>P F:KD>ML >OHEOBG@ <NLMHF>K
L>@F>GML BG MA> LHE:K IAHMHOHEM:B<L F:KD>M "GOBKHG .>L )>MM   
 AMMIL=HBHK@
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UNCORRECTED PROOF
B. Sigrin et al. Energy Research & Social Science xxx (xxxx) 102417
78 " 3BEEB:FL . :KO:EAH " %BMMBG@>K * .HGG>G;>K@ "FIBKB<:E =>O>EHIF>GM H?
I:KLBFHGBHNL FH=>E ?HK BGM>KG:MBHG:E =BYNLBHG H? K>LB=>GMB:E LHE:K .>G>P "G>K@R
  – AMMIL=HBHK@CK>G>G>
78 0 A>G  $N>LMKBG 4$HHLM  L<:E:;E> MK>> ;HHLMBG@ LRLM>F BG -KH< G=
 * /&$(!! &GM HG? (GHPE !BL<HO !:M: *BG  (!!   II –

78 1/ >GLNL NK>:N  F>KB<:G %HNLBG@ /NKO>R  AMMIL
PPP<>GLNL@HOIKH@K:FLLNKO>RL:AL
78 $ :K;HL> + !:K@AHNMA / "EF:EE:A / #HKK>LM>K ( (KBLMBG: / % ! *BEELM>BG
' .:G= 3 HMMHG / /A>KPHH= " ,’/A:N@AG>LLR 0K:<DBG@ MA> /NG -KB<BG@ :G=
!>LB@G 0K>G=L ?HK !BLMKB;NM>= -AHMHOHEM:B< /RLM>FL BG MA> 1GBM>= /M:M>L  
"=BMBHG ):PK>G<> >KD>E>R +:MBHG:E ):; )+) >KD>E>R  1GBM>= /M:M>L
 AMMIL=HBHK@
78 ,"%% :E"GOBKH/<K>>G  ,"%%  AMMILH>AA:<:@HO
<:E>GOBKHL<K>>GK>IHKM<:E>GOBKHL<K>>G :<<>LL>= N@NLM  
78 / (:N?F:G / .HLL>M  ->KEB<A )>:D:@> BG =:M: FBGBG@ ?HKFNE:MBHG =>M><MBHG
:G= :OHB=:G<> BG -KH< MA  * /&$(!! &GM HG? (GHPE !BL<HO !:M: *BG
LLH<B:MBHG ?HK HFINMBG@ *:<ABG>KR +>P 5HKD +5 1/  II –
AMMIL=HBHK@
78 ) K>BF:G .:G=HF #HK>LML *:<A )>:KG   –
78 ' "EBMA '. )>:MAPB<D 0 %:LMB>  PHKDBG@ @NB=> MH ;HHLM>= K>@K>LLBHG MK>>L '
GBF "<HE    – AMMIL=HBHK@C
Q
78 /* )NG=;>K@ /& )>>  1GB?B>= IIKH:<A MH &GM>KIK>MBG@ *H=>E -K>=B<MBHGL
BG =O +>NK:E &G? -KH<>LL /RLM NKK:G LLH<B:M>L &G<  AMMIL
IKH<>>=BG@LG>NKBIL<<I:I>KA:LA::=<=?=;
;LMK:<MAMFE :<<>LL>= />IM>F;>K  
78 * (NAG NBE=BG@ -K>=B<MBO> *H=>EL BG . 1LBG@ MA> <:K>M -:<D:@> ' /M:M /H?MP
KMB<   – AMMIL=HBHK@CLLOB
78  *HG= 1/ .>LB=>GMB:E /HE:K -2 NLMHF>K <JNBLBMBHG  NKK>GM :G=
-KHC><M>= HLML :G= A:GG>E /MK:M>@B>L $0* .>L>:K<A 
78 ' /<:OH / (HKHL>< " $N>KK>KH  ->GGBG@MHG - !HN@AF:G )HP&G<HF>
:KKB>KL /MN=R  -:KM   ,O>K<HFBG@ :KKB>KL MH "G>K@R "?W<B>G<R :G= .>G>P:;E>L
?HK )HP&G<HF> NLMHF>KL :G= /F:EE NLBG>LL HGMK:<MBG@ ,IIHKMNGBMB>L BG
!BL:=O:GM:@>= HFFNGBMB>L 
78 $ /AFN>EB 0H "QIE:BG HK MH -K>=B<M /M:M /<B   – AMMIL
=HBHK@/0/
78 / *NEE:BG:MA:G ' /IB>LL *:<ABG> )>:KG IIE "<HG II   –
78 /* )NG=;>K@ $$ "KBHG /& )>> HGLBLM>GM &G=BOB=N:EBS>= #>:MNK>
MMKB;NMBHG ?HK 0K>> "GL>F;E>L G= 
78 KB:G =’E>LL:G=KH :MAR ,’+>BE 0HF ):$:MM: HGL<B>GMBHNL <E:LLBW<:MBHG 
=:M: L<B>GMBLM’L @NB=> MH =BL<KBFBG:MBHG:P:K> <E:LLBW<:MBHG B@ !:M:   
– AMMIL=HBHK@;B@
78 2 "N;:GDL NMHF:MBG@ &G>JN:EBMR %HP %B@A0><A 0HHEL -KH?BE> -HEB<> :G=
-NGBLA MA> -HHK /M *:KMBG’L -N;EBLABG@ $KHNI 
