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A Close Examination of the 2016 Dallas and Baton Rouge Police Killers: Identifying Potential Risk Factors and Influences for Copycat Violence
Abstract
Two of the worst targeted attacks on American police officers in recent history occurred within eleven days of each other. Although it seems clear their proximity was not merely attributable to chance, the connection between these incidents, and the implications for understanding copycat violence, have never been fully explored. This study analyzes the perpetrators of these attacks from a “thresholds of violence” perspective, which suggests the first actor in a sequence is more likely to be disturbed and violence prone, while subsequent actors are typically less disturbed but more socially influenced. Results suggest the thresholds model has both merits and limits. The first attacker did have more psychological problems and violence in his past, and the second did seem more influenced by violent role models. However, there were also many similarities between them, and both attacked due to a combination of internal and external factors. If this study's findings are generalizable, higher risks of becoming a copycat offender may exist for individuals who have (1) personal similarities with previous attackers, (2) a history of psychological problems, (3) a history of interest in violent actors, and (4) recent escalation in their online behavior. Recommendations are offered for future research, offender profiling, and violence prevention.
... For instance, the San Bernardino shooters' religious motivations included extreme interpretations of the Quran and the violent implementation of Sharia Law (Braziel, Straub, Watson, & Hoops, 2016). The Dallas shooter was driven by anti-police and anti-White motivations in the aftermath of police killings of unarmed Black men (Lankford, 2021). The El Paso shooter was motivated by White nationalism and anti-immigrant beliefs (Law & Bates, 2019). ...
This study uses a crime script analysis to examine far-right, far-left, and jihadist-inspired ideologically motivated mass shooters (IMMS) in the US (1970-2019). This work provides a comparison of incident rates and shooter backgrounds, as well as the preparation, execution, and conclusion of attacks. When comparing the three IMMS types, findings indicate far-right incidents were most common, far-left shooters were largely Black Nationalists, and jihadist-inspired shooters had more success in life (college graduates, employed, married, parents). During initial preparation, IMMS often leaked violent intentions and had facilitating conditions including criminal, domestic violence, and military histories. Jihadist-inspired shooters had more planning, and far-left shooters often accessed guns illegally. During attack execution, IMMS incidents often occurred in the South and involved open-space and/or unrestricted access locations. Jihadist-inspired shooters targeted government locations more often, while far-left incidents often occurred outside with law enforcement on the scene. During attack conclusion, IMMS incidents often ended quickly and involved gunfire with police. Jihadist-inspired shooters had a higher rate of victim casualties, and far-left shooters had a higher rate of police casualties. Far-right shooters had a higher number of victim and police casualties overall. A discussion of findings contextualises IMMS threats and explores strategies for countering the phenomenon.
In recent years, major media organizations have wondered if their coverage of mass shooters actually increases the risk of future attacks, and have asked how their reporting could be improved. In response, 149 experts have called for media to stop publishing the names and photos of mass killers (except during ongoing searches for escaped suspects), but continue reporting the other details of these crimes as needed. Here, we review some of the most important scientific findings on (a) the nature of media coverage of mass killers, (b) its consequences, and (c) solutions that could help make this coverage safer, and summarize how new studies published in this special issue of American Behavioral Scientist add to this valuable knowledge base.
Contagion and copycat behavior among mass killers is often discussed in the media when there are multiple attacks within a short span of time. Proximity in time, however, does not necessarily mean that one attack inspired another. This study examines the clearest cases of role modeling and fame seeking among mass killers in which the perpetrators personally acknowledged these types of influence and motivation in their own lives. Instead of simply categorizing potential copycat offenders in a “yes”/“no” binary fashion, it outlines many different types of influence, imitation, and inspiration and then provides evidence on perpetrators who represent examples of each type. Overall, findings suggest that most killers were not gaining insights into attack methodology from their role models, but rather were drawn to the prior perpetrators for a variety of personal reasons. Looking ahead, because of the frequency of mass killers citing previous perpetrators as role models or sources of inspiration, it is critical that media outlets give careful consideration to how they cover such incidents.
Mass shootings understandably create outpourings of public horror and outrage. Nevertheless, and contrary to common media depictions and the general public’s beliefs, mass shootings are extremely rare events. These tragedies are influenced by multiple complex factors, many of which are still poorly understood. However, the lay public and the media typically assume that the perpetrator has a mental illness and that the mental illness is the cause of these highly violent acts of horrific desperation. Although some mass shooters are found to have a history of psychiatric illness, no reliable research has suggested that a majority of perpetrators are primarily influenced by serious mental illness as opposed to, for example, psychological turmoil flowing from other sources. As a result, debate on how to prevent mass shootings has focused heavily on issues that are 1) highly politicized, 2) grossly oversimplified, and 3) unlikely to result in productive solutions.
In this chapter, we discuss the existing research, limited though it may be, on mass shootings and then examine the nature of the link between gun violence and mental illness. We consider the value of gun laws focusing on mental illness, with attention to their potential efficacy in preventing future mass shootings. We conclude by proposing that instead of the focus on mental illness, increased attention should be paid to sociocultural factors associated with mass shootings and exploring other interventions and areas for further research.
Several past studies have found that media reports of suicides and homicides appear to subsequently increase the incidence of similar events in the community, apparently due to the coverage planting the seeds of ideation in at-risk individuals to commit similar acts.
Here we explore whether or not contagion is evident in more high-profile incidents, such as school shootings and mass killings (incidents with four or more people killed). We fit a contagion model to recent data sets related to such incidents in the US, with terms that take into account the fact that a school shooting or mass murder may temporarily increase the probability of a similar event in the immediate future, by assuming an exponential decay in contagiousness after an event.
We find significant evidence that mass killings involving firearms are incented by similar events in the immediate past. On average, this temporary increase in probability lasts 13 days, and each incident incites at least 0.30 new incidents (p = 0.0015). We also find significant evidence of contagion in school shootings, for which an incident is contagious for an average of 13 days, and incites an average of at least 0.22 new incidents (p = 0.0001). All p-values are assessed based on a likelihood ratio test comparing the likelihood of a contagion model to that of a null model with no contagion. On average, mass killings involving firearms occur approximately every two weeks in the US, while school shootings occur on average monthly. We find that state prevalence of firearm ownership is significantly associated with the state incidence of mass killings with firearms, school shootings, and mass shootings.
A general inductive approach for analysis of qualitative evaluation data is described. The purposes for using an inductive approach are to (a) condense raw textual data into a brief, summary format; (b) establish clear links between the evaluation or research objectives and the summary findings derived from the raw data; and (c) develop a framework of the underlying structure of experiences or processes that are evident in the raw data. The general inductive approach provides an easily used and systematic set of procedures for analyzing qualitative data that can produce reliable and valid findings. Although the general inductive approach is not as strong as some other analytic strategies for theory or model development, it does provide a simple, straightforward approach for deriving findings in the context of focused evaluation questions. Many evaluators are likely to find using a general inductive approach less complicated than using other approaches to qualitative data analysis.
Research Summary: Public mass shootings in the United States have become substantially more deadly over time. We document this increase, offer a model to explain it, review supporting evidence for the model, and present new findings on offenders from 1966 to 2019. It appears that societal changes have led to more public mass shooters who are motivated to kill large numbers of victims for fame or attention, as well as to more shooters who have been directly influenced by previous attackers. They often spend extended time planning their attacks and are increasingly likely to acquire powerful weapons and develop specific strategies to enhance their lethality. Policy Implications: New policies should be aimed at addressing the aforementioned factors. For instance, the deadliest public mass shooters' desires for fame and attention might be countered by a change in media coverage policies. Additionally, the deadliest perpetrators' lengthy planning periods have been associated with more warning signs being reported to police, so that type of information could justify denying many potential attackers access to firearms through extreme risk protection orders and red flag laws.
The current study examines the severity, characteristics, and coverage of fame-seeking mass shootings in the United States from 1966 to 2018. Specifically, this research highlights the rate of incidents and casualties, provides a comparison of fame-seeking shootings against all other mass shootings, and examines the media's coverage of the phenomenon. Findings illustrate a rise in incidents and casualties at the turn of the century. Fame-seeking perpetrators were overwhelmingly males who often perceived themselves as victims. They were more likely than other types of mass shooters to be young white students, with signs of mental illness, suicidal tendencies, and grandiose behaviors. They were also more likely to target schools and use a combination of weapons. Additionally, fame-seeking shooters were more likely to receive media coverage than their counterparts, thereby reinforcing their initial motivations. A discussion of findings highlights important implications for scholars, practitioners, and media outlets covering the phenomenon.
The current study examines mass public shooters who target government agents and institutions in the United States. This research uses a rational choice perspective to examine the incidence, motivations, and target selection. Additionally, this work provides an in-depth investigation of ideological attacks, as well as a comparison against general mass public shooting perpetrator, planning, and incident characteristics. Results indicate non-ideological attacks against government targets occur more than ideologically motivated shootings. Importantly, the majority of ideologically motivated mass public shooters do not attack government targets. These findings provide implications for security, policy, and prevention strategies that have historically focused on ideologically motivated mass public shootings against government targets.
In the United States and Europe, the distinction between public mass shooters and suicide terrorists no longer seems particularly meaningful. A number of public mass shooters have considered using bombs and claimed to be sacrificing themselves for an ideological cause, and many suicide terrorists have attacked without organizational support, using firearms, for what appear to be largely personal reasons. Previous research has also documented several common factors in these offenders’ lives, including (a) suicidal motives and life indifference, (b) perceived victimization, and (c) desires for attention or fame. These factors are not always easy for observers to recognize in advance, so mental health professionals, the public, and law enforcement officials might need help from experts to more successfully identify at-risk individuals. This article reviews the evidence of each factor, provides a list of specific warning signs, and offers recommendations for future research. Ultimately, an evidence-based approach to prevention could help save both the lives of many potential victims and the lives of the would-be attackers themselves.
A mass killing is a complex behavior that is the product of a range of variables. Recent research suggests one such variable by showing that when a mass killing occurs there is a heightened chance of another occurring in the near future. This increase in probability has been referred to as contagion and one possible mechanism for contagion may be generalized imitation. Generalized imitation requires the presence of some model to prompt imitation, and we suggest media reporting methods as a prominent model inspiring future mass killings. This article analyzes mass killings as the culmination of a sequence of thoughts and actions that are influenced by environmental events including media reports of mass killings. We then evaluate media reporting guidelines and research related to the prevention of suicide and other imitational behaviors to identify reactive and proactive strategies that could minimize the likelihood of one mass killing inducing another.
Increasingly in America, fame is revered as the ultimate form of prestige-bearing success, and the distinction between fame and infamy seems to be disappearing. In this context, some rampage shooters succumb to “delusions of grandeur” and seek fame and glory through killing. The present study offers initial findings on the behavior of fame-seeking rampage shooters, and then tests for differences between offenders who explicitly sought fame and other offenders. The results suggest that fame-seeking rampage shooters have existed for more than 40 years, but they are more common in recent decades and in the United States than in other countries. Overall, fame-seeking offenders appear younger than other rampage shooters, and they kill and wound significantly more victims. Several empirical predictions are made about the expected frequency and characteristics of future rampage shootings.
The accumulation of anecdotal accounts of copycat crime suggests that popular culture plays an important role in some instances and aspects of criminal behavior. However, there is little empirical research specifically examining the copycat effect on criminal behavior. Questions remain regarding the nature and extent of copycat crime, cultural influences that shape the copycat effect, the role and relevance of popular culture as a motivating factor for criminal behavior, and issues the copycat phenomenon raises for legal determinations of criminal responsibility. This paper reviews the research literature and contemporary case examples of copycat crime with attention to the influence of mass media technology on criminal behavior, the mechanisms of media-mediated crime, and the relevance of understanding the copycat phenomenon for determinations of criminal responsibility in insanity cases. An integrative theoretical model of copycat crime is proposed, a methodological framework for empirically investigating copycat crime is presented, and practical implications for understanding the role of the copycat effect on criminal behavior are discussed.
“Active Shootings,” which include shootings in public, confined areas such as schools, often traumatize communities and attract intense media coverage. Proposed policy responses to the phenomenon, such as concealing information as to casualty counts and even the identities of shooters, often suppose that active shootings are “contagious,” in that previous occurrences can enhance the likelihood of subsequent occurrences. This study marks the first attempt at assessment of the contagiousness of the active shooting phenomenon, and deploys a statistical model—the series hazard model—that is well-suited to the substantive issue of contagion as well as the fine-grained nature of the active shooting data. Results indicate that the hazard of observed active shootings was a function of the number of active shootings that preceded them in the previous two weeks.
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